Inflation Watch -- Detergent -- April 30, 2024

Locator: 47114INFLATION.

For previous posts on this subject, search "detergent" on the blog.

The bar is 13 cents / load for detergent, although I have found it for as low as 8 cents / load.

Today, holy mackerel: paid $1.99 for 50-loads --

$1.99 / 50 = 4 cents / load.

I didn't get a picture of the large Tide "on sale": $19.99 for 45 loads: $19.99 / 45 = 44 cents per load.

This wasn't shinkflation. This was seriously misleading by the makers of the detergent, not the retailer.

Can you imagine? Folks who are having trouble making ends meet, pay $20 for a container of detergent vs $1.99 for the same amount in terms of number of loads.

WTI Drops Below $82 -- Oil Sector Spooked -- Huges Losses On Market -- April 30, 2024

Locator: 47113WTI.

A reminder: this is the last day of the month, for whatever that's worth.

"Stagflation" is back in the conversation. Steve Liesman says he doesn't see it. In very strong words, and very loudly, he says he doesn't see "stagflation." His response: he says there are still folks worried about the Fed precipitating a recession. 

Back to WTI: all the above and peace breaking out in the Mideast.

US equity markets: across the board fell 1.5% to 2%. It appears energy and tech took the greatest hits.

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $81.93

Active rigs: 38.

Five new permits, #40704 - #40708, inclusive:

• Operators: Oasis (3); Phoenix Operating, MRO,
• Fields: Eightmile (Williams); Burg (Divide); Bailey (Dunn)
• Comments:
• Oasis has permits for three Lake Trenton wells, lot 2 section 31-153-102; 
• to be sited 1782 FNL and between 337 FWL and 436 FWL;
• Phoenix Operating has a permit for a Axel Ferrari well, SESW 24-160-99, 
• to be sited 330 FSL and 1426 FWL
• MRO has a permit for a Simmons wells, SESE 21-146-93, 
• to be sited 598 FSL and 622 FEL

Interesting:

• Phoenix Operating, with four Jean Ferrari wells plugged or producing, NENW 26-160-100; 

The maps:

Three producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 37924, n/d, BR, Boxer 2A TFH,
• 37932, n/d, BR, Parrish 3C TFH,
• 39752, 729, Slawson, Armada Federal 5-14-18TFH,

Breast Cancer: Mammography Recommendations Updated -- April 30, 2024

Locator: 47099BREASTCANCER.

Task force updates guidance for breast cancer screenings for women and older (until age 74. Link here. 

These new recommendations, published Tuesday in the medical journal JAMA, replace the task force’s 2016 recommendations. Some groups, such as the American Cancer Society, have already recommended for women to start mammograms in their 40s.

Unless I missed it, there is very little (or no) discussion of current mortality rates, or how mortality rates have changed over time.

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Breast Cancer

Previously posted.

Locator: 46916CANCER.

This might be the best link from Radiology, published February 9, 2021. Very, very concerning.

The data years: The authors conducted a retrospective analysis of (a) female breast cancer mortality rates from NCHS data for 1969–2017 for all...

Results: 

• between 1989 and 2010, breast cancer mortality rates decreased by 1.5%–3.4% per year for each age decade from 20 to 79 years...
• after 2010, breast cancer mortality rates continued to decline by 1.2%–2.2% per year in women in each age decade from 40 to 79 years but stopped declining in women younger than 40 years.
  

The chart at the top of the page at this link has an anomalous data point, undated (?) but most recent data is through calendar year 2020 which suggests same data base as the Radiology link above.  

If I'm reading the chart correctly:

An observation: for all the billions spent on research, the observed death rate in the past ten years, 2009 - 2019, not encouraging. Yes, the drop from 22.2 to 19.4 looks great statistically but to the individual patient, no change in observed death rate in the past ten years

Comment: like everything else in human endeavor, I assume there's a lot of "group think" in research labs around the world. One wonders if some out-of-the-box thinking might be indicated. And perhaps there has been; I certainly don't know. I don't follow breast cancer except for occasionally looking at the statistics. But these statistics are depressing. Maybe I'm being too negative.

Comment: we won't know until 2024 or 2025 but the statistics will be very, very interesting for the calendar years 2020 and 2021 when Covid interrupted outpatient visits when early diagnosis might have been made and for many cancer therapy might have been interrupted. Again, the best study, the Radiology study covered breast cancer data from 1969 to 2017, well before 2021 - 2023.

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Prostate Cancer

Link here.

 Again, typographical errors and content errors likely. If this is important to you, go to the source.

Personal Investing -- Taxes

Locator: 47098PERSINV.

I'm starting a new series on investing that I can share with my extended family members, most of whom have Schwab accounts but little understanding about investing.

Anything I write here is meant only for my extended family members and no other readers. It is a starting point for discussion among the family members. Nothing is written in stone. These posts will be updated as conditions change. Blogs for this series will all be linked under the "Personal Investing" tab at the top of the blog. 

Again, this advice is for the money heirs will receive in their inheritance. It is not about their current financial management plan or their financial plan after we die, if that makes sense. The emphasis is on tax-free growth of retirement accounts and college education savings programs.

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First And Foremost

Unless someone can tell me differently, the most important thing: do everything you can to grow your money tax-free. 

This blog on personal investing is directed to adult family members, with or without children:

• who have earned income, or is married to a spouse with earned income;
• who have earned income less than $250,000.01, joint filing;
• who are saving / investing for retirement;
• who are saving / investing for college expenses (or other educational expenses);
• who know very little about investing but are eager to learn:

Highly advised:

• the extended family members to whom this blog is addressed have established online accounts with a discount broker, preferably Schwab
  

Risk tolerance:

• varies but I don't think I address or will address risk tolerance in these notes

Personal Investing -- Coverdell Education Savings Accounts -- Coverdell ESA -- An Alternative To The 529

Locator: 47097PERSINV.

I'm starting a new series on investing that I can share with my extended family members, most of whom have Schwab accounts but little understanding about investing.

Anything I write here is meant only for my extended family members and no other readers. It is a starting point for discussion among the family members. Nothing is written in stone. These posts will be updated as conditions change. They will eventually be collected and linked under the "Personal Investing" tab at the top of the blog.

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Coverdell: An Alternative To The 529

There are some downsides to the "529" which I can discuss at another time. 

I still consider the "529" the best thing since sliced bread for folks like me and the extended family member to whom this is addressed.

However, as noted there are a couple of downsides to the "529."

The first question: can one have a "self-directed 529" just as one has a self-directed IRA?

No.

However. There is a way to accomplish the same thing as a "self-directed 529" if one was allowed to have self-directed 529s.

They are called Coverdell Education Savings Accounts. Link here.

There are many more restrictions on the Coverdale ESA than the "529." In addition, I've always felt uncomfortable with a Coverdell ESA for some reason. I don't know why. Well, it turns out that the law was changed in 2002 with regard to the Coverdell ESA and it appears to be an excellent option for saving for a child's college education.

Does Schwab offer Coverdell ESAs? Yes, of course. Link here.

Lots of restrictions. But they don't matter. 

Advice for the extended family member for which this investing series is directed: have a mix of 529s and Coverdell ESAs. 

I don't consider Covderdell ESAs an alternative to 529s, nor do I consider Coverdell ESAs an "alternative" to the 529. I consider them complementary, offering contributors and beneficiaries flexibility among other benefits.

So, again, have a mix of 529s and Coverdell ESAs. Or a very, very rich uncle. 

Speaking of which, we all have a rich uncle and ROTC scholarships are awesome. But I digress.

Some rules:

• income limit for the extended family member: around $190,000 (check latest IRS rules)
• contributions don't reduce your income taxes (same with Roth IRAs)
• any number of Coverdell ESAs for any beneficiary but total amount any beneficiary can receive in any tax year is $2,000
• therefore, with two children, under the age of 18, a mother and father can contribute up to $2,000 total for each child, no matter how Coverdell ESAs they have

Item:

• with a mix of Coverdell ESAs and 529s, when a child goes to school, and starts paying for education, deplete the Coverdell ESAs first.

Links:

• IRS: Coverdell ESA;
• college education savings plans;
• Schwab and Coverdell ESAs;
• bypassing the $2,000 limit (not really, but sort of)

Personal Investing -- Tax-Free Retirement Plans Are Not Created Equal

Locator: 47096PERSINV.

I'm starting a new series on investing that I can share with my extended family members, most of whom have Schwab accounts but little understanding about investing.

Anything I write here is meant only for my extended family members and no other readers. It is a starting point for discussion among the family members. Nothing is written in stone. These posts will be updated as conditions change. They will eventually be collected and linked under the "Personal Investing" tab at the top of the blog. 

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Tax-Free Retirement Plans Are Not Created Equal

In fact, calling them tax-free is a mistake. They are tax-deferred. My mistake. I should have said "tax-deferred" but this brings up a nice point.

I can't think of many financial facts of life that will hurt your portfolio more than paying taxes. 

I can't say it often enough: taking the IRA tax credit at the front end is inconsequential compared to the taxes you will pay at the back end.

Forget about the tax deduction on the front end (traditional IRA) and, unless I'm missing something, go with a Roth IRA.

IRS FAQs.

Consumer Spending -- April 30, 2024

Locator: 47112SPENDING.

John Brown, CNBC, pointed this out today, link here. 

Also, here.

This came up in discussion regarding McDonald's challenges.

Chart Of The Day -- US Wind -- April 30, 2024

Locator: 47111WIND.

This does not bode well for EV infrastructure.

Of the two "renewables," wind greatly overshadows (pun intended) solar.

Link here.

Tech Note -- April 30, 2024

Locator: 47110TECH.

After spending quite a bit of time on Broadcom yesterday (research), it appears that to a great degree all of these "chip companies" -- designers, fabricators -- have a monopoly in their "narrow" sector of the "semiconductor" market.  

The chip companies that appear to be benefiting from this:

• NVDA -- GPUs
• AMD (XLNX) -- FPGAs
• TSM -- fabricator
• AVGO -- AISCs
• MU -- memory
• ASML -- foundries 
• LRCX -- equipment
  

Fabs vs foundries: there is a difference. 

Cloud:

• many competitors but the pie is getting exponentially bigger
• Zeck suggests the cloud is well under-utilized
• requires lots of chips

Next big thing: not really "next." It's already here: ad-supported streaming. Huge new beneficiary:

• Netflix

NOG -- 1Q24

Locator: 47109B.

1Q24 highlights:

• record quarterly production of 119,436 Boe per day (59% oil), increases of 4% from the fourth quarter of 2023 and 37% from the first quarter of 2023 
• GAAP net income of $11.6 million, Adjusted Net Income of $130.5 million and Adjusted EBITDA of $387.0 million.
• cash flow from operations of $392.1 million. Ccash flow from operations was $352.5 million, an increase of 19% from the first quarter of 2023 
• generated $54.0 million of free cash flow.
• closed on previously announced acquisition of non-operated interests across 3,000 net acres in the Northern Delaware Basin 
• after the closing of the Northern Delaware acquisition in the first quarter, NOG paid $40 million in common stock dividends, repurchased $20 million of common stock, and repaid approximately $50 million of debt 

Ticker:

Dividend history:

Zeck -- April 30, 2024

Locator: 47108TECH.

On CNBC early this morning. An interview worth watching.

Acronym, KPMs:

The interview: 

• Ed Norton was right on streaming;
• Ed Norton was wrong on streaming sports, news -- but in a very narrow way; overall he was right on
• the big question: why is it taking so long to go from linear network television to streaming?

On another note: if one wants to see Ed Norton at his best, one might start with Birdman.

With regard to Zeck: no recommendation. This is not an investment site. See disclaimers.

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Personal Note
For the Archives

Our oldest granddaughter will be graduating from Vanderbilt this next autumn, one semester early. Summer internship in Washington, DC. Interviewing for jobs now.

Our "middle" granddaughter has signed to matriculate at Stanford. Yeah, that Stanford. 

Full scholarship. Accepted, but declined, Harvard, Duke where she also had full scholarship. "Safe" schools: UT-Texas-Austin; Texas A&M. Major: electrical engineering. Eager to join several clubs, including: a) advanced hacking; b) polo; c) flying club; d) robotics.

Youngest granddaughter, elementary school: suspended for three hours due to bad behavior on bus along with the entire group on the bus.

Twins, four years old: working on their "s's" in speech therapy. 

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YouTube

I understand it not.

Link here.

40,000 views.

Facebook -- META -- Higher Losses For Longer -- April 30, 2024

Locator: 47107TECH.

Link here.

I don't follow META - Facebook very closely -- but this is very interesting. This may be an interesting ticker to follow. I don't invest in META and have no plans to do so. No recommendation. See disclaimers.

The takeaways for me:

• AI is here to stay;
• content providers are going to spend a lot of money on chips;

Out on a limb:

• does Zuckerberg know something the rest of us don't know?
• is AI an existential issue for some content providers?
• implications for AAPL? In a bad way.
  

Look at the story at the link:

Facebook owner Meta registered nearly $4 billion in losses for its metaverse and AI research wing in the first quarter, with the company’s stock crashing by more than 11 percent in a single day.

Meta's “Reality Labs” division suffered massive losses.

Reality Labs is the company’s research and development wing focusing on immersive technologies like metaverse, virtual reality, and AI.

Reality Labs registered a loss of $3.84 billion between January and March 2024 against a revenue of just $440 million.

Meta began reporting Reality Labs as a separate business segment at the end of 2020. Since then, losses from the segment have exceeded $45 billion.

Mark Zuckerberg suggested that the firm could continue suffering losses for some more time in its AI efforts. More investments will be required before Meta makes “revenue from some of these new products” like AI, he said. 

Meta reported a 27 percent increase in revenue and a 117 percent jump in net income for the quarter compared to first quarter 2023.

However, the chief executive’s comments that Reality Labs’ endeavors will take more time to become profitable negatively affected investor sentiment, especially since the sector has already seen billions of dollars in losses.

Meta’s market capitalization at the end of Wednesday was $1.27 trillion. During Thursday morning trading, its market cap declined to $1.10 trillion—a wipeout of $170 billion in value.

The earnings report also predicted higher expenses for Reality Labs moving forward.

Kraken's Alamo And Maddie Pads North Of Williston -- April 30, 2024

Locator: 47106B.

One of eight, two pads:

39526, conf, Kraken, Alamo 3-34-27 3H,

The map:

Tuesday, April 30, 2024

Locator: 47105B.

CNBC: quarter to date (one month?):

• loser: INTC leads the list
• winner: CVX

Market: futures slumped when wage data released this morning. 

• the employment cost index, a measure of wages for civilian workers, jumped 1.2% in the March quarter, above the 1% consensus estimate from economists polled by Dow Jones. Treasury yields jumped following the data.
• by noon, this data point will have been forgotten.
  

Surging: PayPal, Eli Lilly, 3M.

Bloomberg:

• Cocoa plunged by the most ever — slumping as much as 27% in just two days — with price swings becoming more extreme as fewer investors and companies can afford to maintain trading positions. 
• Southeast Asia’s heat wave is pushing temperatures and power demand to records, straining grids and prompting traders to bulk up on natural gas cargoes. Europe’s summer is also forecast to be hotter than usual. 
• Chevron Corp. expects a resolution to a dispute with Exxon Mobil Corp. over a Guyana oil contract in coming months that would allow its $53 billion acquisition of Hess Corp. to complete this year.

McDonald's earnings:

"Free speech" is not free.

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $83.10. Recovers a bit in early morning trading.

Wednesday, May 1, 2024: 2 for the month; 66 for the quarter, 265 for the year
40120, conf, Slawson, Teapot Federal 6-15-14TFH,
39526, conf, Kraken, Alamo 3-34-27 3H,

Tuesday, April 30, 2024: 64 for the month; 64 for the quarter, 263 for the year
40233, conf, Empire North Dakota, Bufflehead 29-3A 1H,
40122, conf, Slawson, Teapot Federal 7-15-14TFH,
40121, conf, Slawson, Teapot Federal 1 SLH,
39525, conf, Kraken, Alamo 3-34-27 4H,
39463, conf, Hess, EN-Bakke-157-93-1522H-5, 
39347, conf, Hess, Ti-T Lalim-157-95-0214H-4, 

RBN Energy: upcoming W2W maintenance will tighten Permian oil takeaway, wreak havoc on prices. Archived.

The largest crude oil pipeline exiting the Permian Basin by volume — Wink to Webster (W2W) — is planned to be offline for maintenance for the first 10 days of June. This is inclusive of Enterprise’s Midland-to-ECHO III (ME III), which reflects the company’s 29% undivided joint interest in W2W. Although the outage has not been publicly confirmed, it’s our understanding that 1.5 MMb/d of capacity will be offline to reroute a small section of pipeline. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll examine how the planned maintenance will impact Permian Basin oil takeaway capacity and what it may mean for Midland WTI pricing.