Sunday, November 16, 2014

Japan Falls Into Recession -- WSJ, November 15, 2014


December 7, 2014: the Japanese contraction was a bit worse than initially reported: a GDP contraction of 1.9% in the revision, versus the 1.6% initially reported. Analysts had expected a contraction of 0.5%. Expectations: not much recovery in the current quarter when it's reported.

Original Post

I wish I had said this but I didn't; a reader did:
Is the USA next? Right after Russia, and Europe? The only continent with growth is Antarctica ... and that is the f*#&^%g ice.
Link here.

The Japanese recession is blamed on a tax increase. Remember, one of the largest (if not the largest) tax increases in the history of the US is yet to be fully implemented. Most of ObamaCare was deferred or delayed until 2015 or 2016 by executive order.

This is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here. Make no travel plans based on what you read here. I post quickly and frequently; typographical and factual errors are likely. If this information is important to you, go to the source.

How will US stock market react to this news? Remember: Japan is the world's 3rd largest economy. It UNEXPECTEDLY slips into recession. How do you think the US stock market will react. Hint: Dow futures tonight are down 80 points. The market will use any excuse to take a profit; the market is trading at new highs; has hit record highs in six of last seven sessions. Time for some profit taking. Talking mony.  

Mony, Mony,Tommy James and the Shondells
Might As Well

A quickie. Perhaps.

Wind energy industry looking for extension of the wind energy tax credit.

Yes, or no? Do you support that extension?

The poll at the sidebar at the right won't stay up long, unlike most polls. 

Now It Is Safe To Report: The Gap Widens
Moving POTUS Off Center Stage Of This Three-Ring Circus

On on August 31, 2012, I wrote:
I've argued that the gap between the haves and the have-nots is widening. I've also argued that many analysts have not adjusted to the "new" economy. the economy is doing poorly for some; not so poorly for others.
I've written about the widening gap between the "haves" and the "have-nots" on numerous occasions.

I see there are several links over at the Drudge Report with that theme (see below). The number of stories on the widening gap begs the question, "why now?" Why are these stories starting to appear now; even I noticed this as far as as August, 2012, and probably well before that.

The answer. It has to do with what I've been saying for the past few weeks. With the mid-term elections now behind us, it is time for the mainstream media to start moving Obama off center stage to make room for Hillary (though the tea leaves suggest she needs to start writing a new book and simply fade away).

Here are the stories that are now being reported by the mainstream media, to continue the process of moving POTUS off center stage:
Note for the Granddaughters
For the Archives

Some years ago when I started my aggressive reading program, I read a bit of Daphne du Maurier, including Rebecca. Then I saw the Hitchcock movie. For whatever reason, I got the movie out again, and began watching it again this week. Watched it last night again for the first time in a long time. Tonight, the movie with the critic's commentary. It is an incredibly good movie; holds up very, very well over time.

Update On MBI / Tyler Wells In Rocky Ridge Oil Field; 30 More Wells To Be Reported Monday; Oasis To Report 11 Wells; Oasis With Two Huge Wells; EOG With Another Huge Wayzetta Well; The Bakken Sets A Global Warming Record -- November 16, 2014

See update regarding the MBI / Tyler wells in the Rocky Ridge oil field area.

Wells coming off confidential list over the weekend, Monday:

Monday, November 17, 2014
  • 27801, drl, Hess, HA-Mogen-152-95-0805H-9, Hawkeye, no production data,
  • 27887, 845, Slawson, Mustang 1 SLH, Big Bend,t9/14; cum 17K 9/14;
  • 27921, 753, Hunt, Alexandria 161-100-17-20H-1, Alexandria, t8/14; cum 25K 9/14;
  • 28110, drl, MRO, Gottlieb 11-26TFH, Bailey, no production data,
  • 28203, drl, CLR, Jamestown Federal 3-17H1, Banks, no production data,
Sunday, November 16, 2014
  • 26160, 1,527, Whiting, Kadrmas Federal 34-11PH, Zenith, t5/14; cum 56K 9/14;
  • 26161, 141, Whiting, Kadrmas Federal 44-11PH, Zenith, t5/14; cum 51K 9/14;
  • 26996, drl, Oasis, Emerald 5603 43-10 3B, Bull Butte, no production data,
  • 27004, drl, Statoil, Brown 30-19 4TFH, Alger, no production data,
  • 27109, 1,668, Oasis, Hagen Banks 5298 42-31 7T3, Banks, t7/14; cum 9K 9/14;
  • 27110, 612, Oasis, Hagen Banks, 5298 42-31 6T, Banks, t7/14; cum 43K 9/14;
  • 27197, 979, Whiting, Asbeck 44-7HU,  Harding, t5/14; cum 41K 9/14;
  • 27529, 1,834, Oasis, Cornell 5501 14-1 8T2, Cow Creek, t7/14; cum 27K 9/14;
  • 27601, 502, Oasis, Oasis Meiers 5692 43-18 7T2, Alger, t7/14; cum 53K 9/14;
  • 27760, conf, Oasis, White 5198 12-6 1T2, Siverston, no production data,
  • 27761, n/d, Oasis, White 5198 12-6 2T3, Siverston, producing,
  • 27773, drl, Hess, BL-Iverson B-155-95-0708H-5, Beaver Lodge, no production data,
  • 27802, drl, Oasis, Andre Shepherd 5501 14-7 2T, Missouri Ridge, no production data,
  • 27803, drl, Oasis, Andre Shepherd 5501 14-7 1T, Missouri Ridge, no production data,
  • 28045, drl, Oasis, Holmes 5501 14-5 6T, Tyrone, no production data,
  • 28046, drl, Oasis, Holmes Harbour 5501 14-5 2B, Tyrone, no production data,
  • 28051, drl, Oasis, Shepherd Andre 5501 14-5 4B, Missouri Ridge, no production data,
  • 28139, 793, CLR, Jefferson 7-17H, Crazy Man Creek, t6/14; cum 17K 9/14;
  • 28333, drl, CLR, Jersey 29-6XH, Alkali Creek, no production data,
Saturday, November 15, 2014
  • 26159, 1,610, Whiting, Kadrmas Federal 14-11PH, Zenith, t5/14; cum 61K 9/14;
  • 26217, 424, EOG, Wayzetta 42-0311H, Parshall, t5/14; cum 119K 9/14;
  • 26957, 1,599, QEP, Veeder 1-27-34BH, Grail, t6/14; cum 66K 9/14;
  • 27766, 1,205, QEP, Veeder 27-34-26-35LL, Grail, t6/14; cum 43K 9/14;
  • 27800, drl, Hess, HA-Mogen-152-95-0805H-9, Hawkeye, no production data,
  • 28203, drl, CLR, Jamestown Federal 2-17H, Banks, no production data,

27110, see above, Oasis, Hagen Banks, 5298 42-31 6T, Banks:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

 27601, see above, Oasis, Oasis Meiers 5692 43-18 7T2, Alger:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

 26217, see above, EOG, Qayzetta 42-0311H, Parshall:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

Global Warming In The Bakken
Cold Temperature Record Set November 15, 2014

Demographics, Immigration, Road Construction

Over the weekend we've been driving around quite a bit of the Dallas - Ft Worth metroplex. I was surprised again by how much interstate and highway construction that is going on in the area. I have driven cross country several times in the past four years, and have spent a fair amount of time in the Boston area over the past four years. I have a pretty good feel for road construction. It looks like 95% of all highway construction is occurring in Texas, and the other 5% is occurring in the Bakken.

There is a lot of development going on in north Texas, in addition to all the road construction. Thinking about that development/construction and the pending immigration, in my opinion the three states to watch for growth are North Carolina, California, and Texas. Of the three, California looks like it has the most to lose. For one reason, the new immigrants have a huge state in which to move around in Texas, and not simply along the border. San Antonio, among the non-border cities, will probably see the largest influx. California, on the other hand will see most of the new immigrants in a relatively (percentage-wise) small area of California. Los Angeles County will probably see the largest influx of the California counties. Texas has the jobs the new immigrants will need; California? Not so much.

I don't know enough about North Carolina to say much more. Bottom line: North Carolina, California, and Texas are the states to watch over the next ten years. North Carolina is under the radar. California will be the media darling, but Texas will have better growth over the next decade.

The other states? Louisiana, of course, is going to do very, very well. Oregon may be a positive surprise.

New York? Like the cover on Bloomberg Businessweek in which Taylor Swift is now THE music industry, NYC is New York. And the tea leaves suggest it will be a struggle for NYC.

Boston and New England? The anti-growth crowd in Vermont, New Hampshire, and Massachusetts pretty much says it all. For all the driving I did in eastern Massachusetts over the past four years, I saw very little road construction. And there is no question that the roads in Massachusetts are in much worse shape than any in Texas. The "Big Dig" sucked up a lot of transportation money; and, the roads are simply much older in New England than in the southwest. New England and New York state only have to look at what Philadelphia is doing (reported earlier today).

A Note to the Granddaughters

It feels like Christmas holidays today. It's cold outside, and the forecast is for a very small bit of snow tonight. We have the heat on (something I rarely do) and the apartment is toasty warm. May is making chocolate chip cookies, and the younger granddaughter is working on her crafts. The older granddaughter is busy at her own house and did not come over, at least not yet. When she hears we have fresh chocolate chip cookies, she will probably come over.

Earlier today (and yesterday, for that matter) traffic was backed up about two miles on on the highway / exit ramp to the up-scale mall and Bass Outdoor World just northwest of where we live.

With a bit of snow tonight, it's going to feel a lot like Christmas.

And now, Sunday night football. I missed the NASCAR championship race; we don't get ESPN on our basic television plan and the neighborhood sports restaurant only shows NFL football on Sundays.

Sunday Night Football, Faith Hill
Yes, I know: Carrie Underwood is now Ms SNF.