Monday, October 31, 2011

Eight (8) New Permits -- Two Nice Wells Reported -- The Bakken, North Dakota, USA

Daily activity report, Halloween, 2011 --
  • Operators: BEXP (2), Hess (2), Legacy (2), OXY USA, North Plains
  • Fields: Banks, Little Knife, Truax, Beaver Lodge.
  • Comments: BEXP has permits for a 2-well pad; Hess has permits for a 2-well pad; and, Legacy has permits for two wildcats up in Bottineau County.
Nice wells reporting today (NDIC appears to have changed its language from "confidential list" to "tight hole" status):
  • 20335, 2,370, Newfield, Holm 150-99-13-24-1H, Siverston; t8/11; cum 277K 10/16;
  • 20502, TA/1,272, True Oil, Hagen 23-13H, Red Wing Creek; target Mission Canyon (Madison) at 9,500 feet; s4/29/11; t6/27/11; cum 14K 11/12. That's a  huge IP for a Madison. Production about average for a Madison.
The Hagen well is just a mile or so away from a cluster of True Oil vertical wells in their amazing Red Wing Creek field.

Other wells previously on DRL status that have now been completed:
  • 19731, 1,800, Statoil/BEXP, Irgens 27-34 1H, East Fork, Williams; t9/11; cum 170K 10/16;
  • 20639, 2,901, Statoil/BEXP, Judy 22-15 1H, East Fork, Williams; t9/11; cum 217K 10/16;
  • 20640, 2,597, Statoil/BEXP, Irgens 27-34 2H, East Fork, Williams; t9/11; cum 207K 10/16;
These three wells, if not on the same pad, very, very close, sitting in section 27-156-100 north and a bit east of Williston, near Epping/Springbrook, East Fork oil field. I was out in that area this past weekend -- it is very, very busy, to say the least.

The number of active rigs today at 201 ties the record; the number of rigs was as low as 195 a few days ago. Quite a turnaround.

MSNBC video.

MSNBC video.

201 Active Drilling Rigs -- Ties the Record -- The Bakken, North Dakota, USA

Link here.  Dynamic link will change.

It was at 201 much of the day; but it's back to 199, now I see, 6:00 p.m. CST. 

Sunday, October 30, 2011

Expansion of the Hess Tioga Plant; Compare to the New ONEOK Plants -- The Bakken, North Dakota, USA


Because the Bakken is considered an oil field and not a gas field, I concentrated on the oil aspect of the Bakken when I began this web-log. In addition, I was more comfortable with oil, and had a more difficult time understanding natural gas and the other by-products of oil production in the Bakken. Because of that blind spot, I failed to pay much attention to the natural gas projects -- gathering and processing facilities, and pipelines -- that were generating a lot of jobs, and pouring a lot of cash into the economy.

The link below to an article in PennEnergy is a good example. I do not recall if I saw it when it was first published in September, 2010, but even if I had, I may not have paid any attention to it. Now I understand why a reader wondered if the new ONEOK processing plants were half the size of the Tioga plant. The Hess expansion project at Tioga is huge; some datapoints:
  • a $500 million expansion project; I believe the three new ONEOK projects total about $500 altogether (I vaguely remember posting that; I'm sure I could be mistaken)
  • the project will employ 300 to 500 personnel, and that fits with the large number of workers I saw at the ONEOK plant west of Williston
A reader provided a lot more background to this project; see "original post" below.

Original Post

This all started with my original post on the new ONEOK natural gas gathering and processing plants west of Williston. If this is new to you, you may want to return to one of the earlier posts. These related posts are now tagged/labeled with CRYO, ONEOK, or Pipeline; tags/labels are found at the very bottom of the blog.

Again, more information regarding the natural gas picture in the Bakken. This comes to me in the way of a comment.

Knowing that some folks won't see the comments, the information is printed here as a stand-alone post.
The Hess Tioga plant expansion will include the ability to fractionate (separate) ethane from the methane and from the natural gas liquids (NGL). That plant had previously had left the ethane with the methane - leaving both as a gas. The removal of ethane is much more difficult technically and requires much higher capital than removal of propane/butane/nat gas. An ethane pipeline into Canada is also being constructed. In Alberta, the chemical industry there has the capability to convert ethane.

So in effect the Hess Tioga plant is not only expanding, but moving from two products (a methane/ethane gas mixture plus a NGL mixture without ethane) to three products: methane gas, ethane liquid, and a NGL mixture without ethane. By contrast, the ONEOK plants will have two product streams (methane and NGL with ethane).

"The expansion will be located about a mile from the current Tioga plant in Williams County. For an investment of $500 million, the expansion will allow the plant to process ethane from natural gas, which is used as a refrigerant and in chemical manufacturing."

Nat gas and oil pipelines in ND:

ND nat gas plant infrastructure:
All of these projects require a lot of new workers, and helps explain the huge man-camps in the Tioga area.

Statoil Comin' to the Bakken -- The Bakken, North Dakota, USA

If you thought the Bakken has been exciting so far, wait until the Norwegians get here.

Statoil Reklame (advertisement)

Statoil buys into the Bakken.

Carpe Diem Never Fails to Surprise, Impress -- Now, It's "In 'N Out Burger -- Absolutely Nothing To Do With The Bakken

My favorite hamburger restaurant in southern California is "In 'N Out."

So, this link is incredible. Of all the things that might get posted today, what a surprise to see this one.

In Texas, my favorite hamburger restaurant is Whataburger.

And in the Bakken, the best burgers are at the Economart.

Update on Slawson's Armada Well -- Just One Year Old -- The Bakken, North Dakota, USA

Tested one year ago but data below is just through August; not on a pump as of August, 2011. 

NDIC File No: 19010     API No: 33-061-01359-00-00     CTB No: 119010
Well Type: OG     Well Status: A     Status Date: 10/13/2010     Wellbore type: Horizontal
Location: SWSW 14-151-92     
Current Well Name: ARMADA FEDERAL 1-14-13H
Total Depth: 19890     Field: VAN HOOK
Spud Date(s):  6/29/2010
Completion Data
   Pool: BAKKEN     Comp: 10/13/2010     Status: F     Date: 10/14/2010     Spacing: 2SEC
Cumulative Production Data
   Pool: BAKKEN     Cum Oil: 116,898     Cum MCF Gas: 33805     Cum Water: 58998
Production Test Data
   IP Test Date: 10/14/2010     Pool: BAKKEN     IP Oil: 847     IP MCF: 600     IP Water: 2640

Sanish Field Oil Production Decline -- The Bakken, North Dakota, USA

Elsewhere (all Teegue links are broken; couldn't take the heat) they're talking about the decline in production rate in Whiting's huge field, the Sanish.

My hunch is that down the road, these wells will be re-fracked.

But for the moment, the writer may be on to something. Some of the most prolific fields have been in Mountrail County. Here are the production totals by month for Mountrail County for selected months:
  • August, 2008: 1,586,456
  • August, 2009: 2,934,463
  • August, 2010: 4,194, 633
  • August, 2011: 4,495,934
  • August, 2012: 6,043,517
  • August, 2013: 6,837,328
  • August, 2014: 7,831,948
 [Update: December 1, 2014 -- another example, I guess, for some of the crazy analyses over at that discussion board.]

A couple of things: the "business of the business" is more important than the business activity itself. In this case, the monthly production is simply one data point. Other data points that would be helpful would be the current takeaway capacity across the Bakken (probably not a factor, in this case, but we don't know), and the producers' ability to adjust production based on price of oil. The price of oil dropped this past summer. [See date of original post.]

Here are the NDIC figures for the past year or so for the Sanish-Bakken (pay attention to the second column [total monthly production] and the fifth column [number of producing wells]:

Date BBLS Oil BBLS Water MCF Gas Wells Producing BBLS Injected MCF Injected Wells Injecting

Pipeline Issues in the Bakken -- North Dakota, USA

It's incredible how much great information is sent to me. I really appreciate it. Often I post the information as soon as I get it without reading it first to get it out to readers as quickly as possible. Then I go back and read it myself.

An excellent example is the natural gas gathering and processing story that was sent to me overnight. The commentary was excellent, and the supporting documentation/links were outstanding. I post a lot every day and for newbies, it's important to scroll down to see the several articles that have been posted (of course, I also update links to previously posted items, the more important ones linked on the sidebar at the right).

One of the links in that post include one from "My West Texas." Two things jump out.
  • I am a big fan of pipeline companies and this article validated my hunch that pipelines will be one of the big winners in the Bakken going forward; and, 
  • all the references to natural gas liquids and crude-by-rail oil loading facilities.
At the link:
Producers can no longer, as Lippe said, simply punch holes in the ground and assume product will get to market. Strictures in transportation and processing may even affect drilling projects at some point if capacity cannot grow fast enough.
I thought the takeaway issue had been resolved in the Bakken based on corporate presentations. There may be more going on at all the CBR facilities being built in western North Dakota than just oil. Every time I think the Bakken has no more surprises, something new pops up.

If you are interested in Bakken natural gas and/or pipelines, you need to check out the links above.

Crosby, North Dakota, Hospital: $7.5 Million Renovation -- The Bakken, North Dakota, USA

Link here.
St. Luke’s Hospital in Crosby is undergoing $7.5 million in renovation and new construction from grants and donations.

A celebratory luncheon was held Thursday, followed with a tour of the new parts of the hospital by St. Luke’s CEO Keith Baker.

Continental Resources donated $100,000, and the emergency room is now named the Continental Resources Emergency Center. Harold Hamm, founder of Continental Resources was present.
According to the article, Harold Hamm is part of a philanthropy group made of up 69 folks who have pledged to give half of their wealth away during their lifetimes.

Crosby is about 80 miles north of Williston, near the Ambrose / West Ambrose fields.

Update on LNG Acivity in Western North Dakota -- The Bakken, North Dakota, USA


May 8, 2012: There are three huge stories coming out of the unconventional oil/shale/fracking story: a) oil; b) natural gas; and, c) ethylene.

Two of the three stories are well known:
  • The Bakken is an oil field, and this blog is mostly about oil, the first story.
  • The second story is how the massive amount of natural gas in North America will have a disruptive effect on the US energy policy going forward. Essentially, it's this: natural gas will pretty much eliminate alternate non-transportation energy sources (nuclear, coal, wind, solar). 
The third story is not as well known: ethylene. I don't think much about that story. It takes a lot of articles to remind me how big a story this really is. Read the original post for background regarding the ethylene story.

Over at Carpe Diem, there is another reminder regarding ethylene:
"The [shale] discoveries have prompted several firms — including Dow Chemical Co. and Shell Oil — to announce plans to build new North American ethylene crackers, with Shell making the almost-unheard-of decision to place its new cracker in western Pennsylvania, near the gas-rich Marcellus Shale. Other companies, including Chevron Phillips Chemical and Formosa Plastics, have announced plans to increase their North American polyethylene output as a result of the shale gas wave.
These three stories are huge.  I have to keep posting these stories to remind me how big these stories are, particularly the ethane/ethylene story.

Original Post

For folks who are new to the site or who have not read the earlier posts on the ONEOK cryo natural gas processing plants going up west of Williston, you should read an earlier post first, which will also link you to the post that started this discussion.

This post will also answer the question that is frequently asked, what does "O," "G," and "P,' or "PPROD," stand for on your royalty statement.

The individual who has really helped me understand what these plants are all about has provided a wonderful overview; it was posted as a comment but is reprinted here for those who may not read comments:

What should be noted is the natural gas liquids (NGL) that are a high fraction of the raw natural gas stream are higher value than the natural gas itself - about twice the value of methane for the Bakken.

ONEOK estimated the NGLs to be 6% of Bakken value, with 3% as NG. Untreated NG consists of methane, natural gas liquids (ethane, propane, butane, and nat gasoline), carbon dioxide, H2S, SO2, some nitrogen, and water vapor. The nat gas plants in ND separate out the CO2 and water, remove the sulfur, and separate the NGLs from the methane, and then liquefying the NGLs.

Almost as important as the four plants ONEOK that will operate is the $500 million NGL pipeline that ONEOK is constructing from near the MT/ND line to the Overland NGL pipeline in Colorado, which in turn feeds into Bushton, Kansas. At Bushton, ONEOK owns a fractionator complex that separates the NGLs into their own components. Each of these components have their own markets, which in most cases are compared to WTI prices.

See pp 71-90 on presentation

Ethane is the key building block for the plastics industry - but first the ethane must be processed through a cracker that produces ethlyene. Much of the cracker capacity in North America had been shut down when NG and NGL prices were high, as foreign ethane had to be imported to stay operating (Dow Chemical, Ethyl and others nearly gave up on North America, leaving the chemical and plastic industry to Europe and the Middle East just three years ago). Now, older ethylene plants have been restarted in Texas and there is talk of building new NGL to plastic plants in the Utica/Marcellus region - which would take billions in capital.

Because of the NGL pipeline that ONEOK is building, the NGL side of the Bakken should be much more profitable. Most of the regional companies will contract with ONEOK, as the capital demands to reproduce what ONEOK is doing is huge ($1.7 billion or more) although larger companies (obviously Hess) as well as EOG, XTO, and others, may build additional plants / capacity, but choose to tie into ONEOK's pipeline.

An article on the massive changes ongoing in the NGL business:

A huge "thank you" for this information. Maybe the local newspapers will pick up this story and do a feature article on it. The Williston Herald has become too small a newspaper for some reason to carry this story, but this would be a great story for a paper like the Bismarck Tribune.  

Saturday, October 29, 2011

This is Just Too Cool ...

From Wikipedia:
By 1890, Thomas Edison had brought together several of his business interests under one corporation to form Edison General Electric. At about the same time, Thomson-Houston Electric Company, under the leadership of Charles Coffin, gained access to a number of key patents through the acquisition of a number of competitors. Subsequently, General Electric was formed by the 1892 merger of Edison General Electric of Schenectady, New York, and Thomson-Houston Electric Company of Lynn, Massachusetts, and both plants remain in operation under the GE banner to this day. 
First of all, I know Lynn very, very well -- I have driven through it many, many times while taking care of my granddaughters in Boston. But that's not the reason for the post.

Edison Electric Appliance Company
In 1918 the company, known as the Hotpoint Electric Heating Company from 1912, merged with the Heating Device Section of General Electric, becoming the Edison Electric Appliance Company, later just a division of GE in 1927 when it bought the factory and entire company. It became known as the Edison General Electric Company in 1931. [at odds with link above]
History of Hotpoint
This 1922 Hotpoint range, made by the Edison Electric Company is typical of the period. The company was formed by a merger of the Hughes Electric Heating Company, Hotpoint Electric Heating Company and the heating device section of General Electric in 1918, in order to produce products under the Hotpoint brand name.

The first range, Model 1, was produced in 1919. The Hughes Company was founded in 1910 by George A. Hughes, who introduced the first "electric cook stove" that year. Hughes became the first president of the newly-formed Edison Electric Company in 1918.

The Hotpoint Company was formed in 1912, based on the popularity of the "hot point" on an iron marketed in 1905 by Earl Richardson. In 1907, the iron formally was marketed as the Hotpoint Iron.

Up until 1922, all electric ranges were in black, brown or both. The Edison Electric Appliance Company model shown here (go to link), you will notice, did have a white oven door nameplate, a simple flat porcelain enamel sheet, probably to dramatize the new name. But this year, Edison Electric received an order from a Raleigh, NC utility executive for an all- white, porcelain stove. Rather than admit that such a stove was not being produced, Edison quoted an exorbitantly high price to discourage him. Upon receiving an order anyway, they felt obligated to develop a new annealing process to apply the enamel on the entire stove.

Thus it was that 1923 Hotpoint models included all-white ranges with nickel trim on the door, and thereafter, white became widely accepted in the industry for ranges, dominating until the 1960s. In 1931, the Edison Electric Appliance Company became the Edison General Electric Company, and in 1934, General Electric and Hotpoint brand production was integrated, retaining both brand names, by that time, in refrigerators, as well.
North Dakota History
The family of Alexander Hughes (1843 - 1907) also exemplifies the captain-of-industry qualities so often found in the Scotch-Irish.....After conspiring with a Canadian-born Scot, Alexander McKenzie, to relocate the Dakota capital in Bismarck, he moved there (Bismarck) to practice law and handle the North Pacific Railroad's legal problems as its assistant counsel from 1887 to 1901.

His son Edmond (1873 - 1970) was experimenting with electricity at the electric utility in Bismarck in which his father had invested the family's money. From this interest came his involvement in the Hughes Electric Company, which had brought the boon of electric lighting to the capital and which evolved into the Montana-Dakota Utilities Company of today.

Edmond was not the only energetic, innovative Hughes. His brother George developed the first practicable electric stove, the Hughes stove. This became the Hotpoint when George became president, and later chairman of the board of directors of the Edison General Electric Appliance Company, which manufactured one-third of the eight million electric ranges produced in the United States by 1950.
And now it's the Bakken. Who wudda thought?

Construction Materials Scarce in Western North Dakota -- The Bakken, North Dakota, USA

Link here.

The "headline" says it all, even if the link breaks. (By the way: this is not a new story; there's been a shortage of supplies for the  past year.)

But does this make sense? The entire rest of the nation is still in a recession according to many. Are "they" saying that the US commodities and housing supply industry can't even keep up with seventeen counties in practically the least populated state in the union. Something clearly doesn't make sense.

Unless, of course, the Bakken is bigger than the rest of the nation realizes.

We will see on October 31, 2011, when Brian Williams showcases the Bakken on the debut of his new evening television news magazine.

Global Warming Central -- Yes, Exactly What is the "Right" Temperature For the Earth? -- And How Does One Measure It?

A Layman's Guide to Anthropogenic (Man-Made) Global Warming

Of all posts, the ones dealing with global warming generate the most comments. Rarely do the comments add anything to the debate. Based on the comments, it appears those commenting are a) not regular readers of the blog but get here by surfing the net (or as Rush would say, "drive by" readers); and, b) don't read the entire post or related posts.

Irrefutable facts that global warming advocates never address:
  • "man-made" CO2 represents but 3% of all greenhouse gases, not including water vapor. Water vapor is the number #1 "greenhouse gas" by a huge margin; again, CO2 represents but 3% of all greenhouse gases
  • the increase in atmospheric CO2, from 2010 to 2011, is measured at "nearly two parts per million"; the annual variability of atmospheric CO2 is 3 - 9 parts per million
  • Canada, one of the first signatories of the Kyoto Protocol, has pulled out of the protocol (2011); the US has never agreed to it
  • Germany has switched to coal (from nuclear energy) to provide the bulk of its electricity; of all forms of energy, coal is considered one of the worse for CO2 generation
  • most EU countries, in 2011 - 2012, due to financial constraints, have pulled back on renewable energy; some countries have completely banned new renewable initiatives as too expensive
  • even ardent global warmers agree that global warming ended 16 years ago, as noted by the British Met Office; these ardent global warmers agree, but argue that a 16-year plateau is too short a period from which to draw conclusions; this plateau occurred during a period of heavy industrialization, especially in China, and when overall CO2 concentration was 140% of that in the pre-industrial age
  • Antarctic ice is growing in volume
  • CO2 emissions of the United States is currently at a 20-year low 
  • despite rising sea levels, 657 new islands were discovered through satellite imagine, announced in 2011 -- this is the weakest of the arguments because it is possible most of these islands were simply "overlooked/missed" in earlier surveys
  • no one knows the "correct" setting of the earth's thermostat as set by the "intelligent designer," aka the "Prime Mover"
Those are irrefutable facts.

See also: 

The great global warming swindle: an hour-long scientific video based on data.

Because global warming activists were unable to refute the irrefutable facts, they changed the phrase to "climate change." But increasing levels of CO2 cause global warming, not global cooling. Now that we have global cooling (part of climate change), what is the explanation? Decreasing levels of CO2, which by the way, is exactly what is happening in the US. A very inconvenient truth. 
November 15, 2013: Japan slashes commitment to global warming efforts; Australia about to end "global warming" programs. And, of course, China never bought into it in the first place. There goes the Pacific. The EU is gradually facing reality. Canada withdrew from the Kyoto Protocol years ago. About the only country leader left talking about global warming is President Obama. 

October 21, 2013: global warming conferences ban/exclude open discussion/scientific discussion/other views LA Times won't publish letters to the editor with opposing viewpoints

May 18, 2013: shoreline data suggests loss of Arctic ice due to melting is much, much less severe than originally thought. 

March 29, 2013: NASA -- global cooling may be caused by burning coal. [I can't make this stuff up.]

February 18, 2013: I guess with "global warming," one can predict any weather pattern one wants -- more blizzards, less snow -- with just a degree-change over 30 years. GIGO.

February 12, 2013: January, 2013, warmest January on record in 35 years. It was warmer during the Age of the Vikings. And, oh by the way, two things: 0.9 degrees above the 30-year baseline, which is really 0.5 degrees Celsius, the temperature scientists use. So, half-a-degree above the 30-year baseline (and why we are using a 30-year baseline is beyond me), and folks are worried about the end of the earth as we know it. The article does not report the "correct" global temperature, and no one says who sets the thermostat. Perhaps the North Koreans?

January 12, 2013:

A draft version of a national report details the accelerated effects of climate change across the U.S., describing battered coastlines, devastating rainfall and drought.  Four observations: a) climate change, not global warming; b) inconsistencies: "devastating rainfall and drought"; c) US-centric; hardly explains the record cold in China and Russia this year; d) still, no one provides the "normal global temperature." I wonder why it's a draft version being released? Everything is released in "draft" these days. The link will break over time, but the photo accompanying the photo is of snow-packed street with two folks trying to get their car out of a snow drift in Ogden, Utah, after a foot of snow fell this past week. Just a few years ago, Joseph Kennedy said "we" would never see snow again, paraphrasing, of course. Before you get too excited about the draft report, visit Singer and AveryBack in 2007:
Within a few years winter snowfall will become a very rare and exciting event... Children just aren't going to know what snow is.
I can't make this stuff up. 

January 5, 2013: Russia, China experiencing coldest winter in decades; colder, also, in Alaska

December 14, 2012: the second best way to lower CO2 emissions -- a global recession; the best way? a global depression.

December 8, 2012: Quote of the day --
"It certainly isn't where we need to be in order to prevent islands from going under and other unimaginable impacts."-- AP, Doha, Qatar.
December 7, 2012: this day will live in infamy; the US blows off warnings of global warming The Doha-ha-ha-ha Climate Change Conference opened and closed this week. No one noticed.

November 20, 2012: the CIA closes its global warming office.

November 10, 2012: the medieval warming period; nothing new under the sun
October 29, 2012: changing tilt of the earth's axis explains climate changes -- Harvard;

October 16, 2012: global warming stopped 16 years ago -- UK mainstream media

September 19, 2012: Antarctic ice shelf continues to grow. 

September 3, 2012: biodiversity of species will increase with global warming

June 22, 2012: The "grandfather of global warming" speaks up/speaks out

June 4, 2012: Greenland glaciers were melting at a faster rate in the 1930s than they are melting now.  Something tells me we won't see this story in the NYT or LAT.
Other links of a similar nature:
June 3, 2012: global warming could open the Arctic -- oil alone worth $900 trillion for the five countries that surround it. Could someone tell me again the downside for global warming?

April 21, 2012: nice summary of where we stand on this issue with additional links at this article in which global warming alarmists want to burn down the houses of skeptics

February 10, 2012: NY Times reporting historic, record-setting winter in Europe.
The successive snowstorms — considered to be the worst onslaught the country [Kosovo] has seen since the 1980s — have also wrought havoc on the country’s agriculture. Farm lobbies told The A.P. that about 100,000 tons of fruit, vegetables and meat products had been left to rot, prevented from reaching markets amid the persistent storms and cold. In the town of Castelvenere, the report said, a funeral was cancelled as snow blocked the arrival of a coffin at the church. 

Last weekend, Ukrainian officials said at least 131 people had died during a lengthy cold snap, as temperatures dropped well below freezing. There were also reports of weather-related deaths in Poland, Italy, France, Hungary and Lithuania. 

In Rome, residents complained last weekend of an inadequate response to the storm. Some regions were left without power well after the snow had passed, and gridlock on some of Rome’s main streets — many unplowed and unsalted — prompted angry calls for the resignation of the city’s mayor.
February 10, 2012: wow, this winter in Europe seems to be getting worse, and worse.
Snow drifts reaching up to rooftops kept tens of thousands of villagers prisoners in their own homes Saturday as the death toll from Europe's big freeze rose past 550.

More heavy snow fell on the Balkans and in Italy, while the Danube river, already closed to shipping for hundreds of kilometres (miles) because of thick ice, froze over in Bulgaria for the first time in 27 years.

Montenegro's capital of Podgorica was brought to a standstill by snow 50 centimetres (20 inches) deep, a 50-year record, closing the city's airport and halting rail services to Serbia because of an avalanche.
February 8, 2012: Earth's  polar icecap melting less than expected. The oceans are rising on average one inch/year.

February 6, 2012: the news continues to get worse in England and central Europe
London's Heathrow Airport, the world's busiest air hub by passenger traffic, cancelled a third of the day's flights, while much of Britain was blanketed in snow, leaving drivers stranded on roads overnight.

In Italy, which reported a seventh victim, snow-covered Rome was virtually paralyzed, thousands of people were trapped on trains, and the weather emergency sparked runs on supermarkets.
February 1, 2012: Scores dead to "global warming"  hitting central and eastern Europe.

January 22, 2012: rare storm pattern to hit the south tonight (weather, not Gingrich-Romney).

January 18, 2012: Alaska dogsled races canceled -- too cold, too much snow; passes impassable.
Temperatures were consistently 45 to 50 below zero, according to race officials.

January 18, 2012: Japanese northern island hit with record snowfall; most since records began.

January 17, 2012: snowstorm of the decades about to hit Seattle, Washington. As predicted by global warming enthusiasts. By the way, what is the "right" temperature for the earth; and, what is the "right" amount of precipitation for the blue marble? And who, exactly, set the thermostat that Americans are now tampering with.

January 16, 2012: this is a comment from another "average dude." It was sent into another site  but it is worthy of saving:
Climate hysteria is a totalitarian's dream. People believe it because it gives them some pseudo-intellectual cachet. Corrupted scientists spin doctor their results to support it because government grants come pouring in. Politicians love it because it's a "crisis" that can give them power to decide who gets resources and who doesn't all in the guise of "saving the planet".

Funny, when doctors save sick patients, they usually know where the demarcation line is to decide if the patient is cured or getting worse. They know the proper range of body temperature, blood pressure, respiration rate, blood chemistry, etc.

Does anyone really know what the "proper" temperature for the entire planet should be? Does anyone really even know how to get an accurate reading on the temperature of the entire planet? What is too much rainfall? What is too little? And what judgements should be made when it is discovered that temperature data is being "smoothed" and then lost? What judgments should be made when a scientist lies about polar bear population statistics?

Short story: Global warming has no cure. Never will have a cure. Can't even be diagnosed with any trustworthiness. It's adherents are demanding Western civilization bankrupt itself to cure a disease of questionable diagnosis which can never be cured because no one can nor will say what constitutes the AGW problem actually being solved.

The entire AGW movement reeks of a classic apocalyptic scam, just like preachers who predict the end of the World and convince they followers to sell everything they have and abandon all worldly goals and possessions for "salvation". It's no different than that, except it's caught on with the left wing loons who are always numerous enough to do real damage when they go completely off the deep end on yet another off the wall social engineering crusade. They are always wrong too, every time. So much so that few of them actually practice any of what they preach in their day to day lives. They have no intention of destroying themselves; just you.
November 29, 2011: Global warming in South Africa shuts down the conference, sort of. West Tennessee hit with major winter storm.

November 23, 2011: How global warming scientists really feel about the issue.

November 17, 2011: update on Kyoto --- "Obama, for all his personal commitment to the environment, has made clear the world's second biggest carbon emitter will not commit to a new legally-binding protocol at least until after the next presidential election." -- Reuters.

November 8, 2011: Alaska faces one of its worse storms ever, forecasters say -- CNN -- not where I usually get my news:
Alaska is facing a life threatening winter storm with near hurricane force winds, more than a foot of snow and severe coastal flooding, the National Weather Service says.

"This is an extremely dangerous and life-threatening storm which will be one of the worst on record over the Bering Sea and the west coast," NWS forecasters said in a bulletin Monday afternoon.

The storm was about 600 miles southwest of Shemya in the far western Aleutian Islands on Monday afternoon and was expected to move over the Bering Sea toward Alaska's west coast on Tuesday.
November 3, 2011: this school district in eastern Massachusetts -- Bolton, Stow and Lancaster -- have used three of their five snow days and winter has not yet begun.

November 1, 2011: old snow stays in Rockies; adds to glacier size;
Scientists who monitor the effects of global warming are watching glaciers shrink all over the world, but this year could be an exception in parts of the Rocky Mountains.

Snow is already piling up in the high country, but not all of the unusually deep snow from last winter has melted. As a result, some glaciers and snowfields are actually gaining volume this year.

Scientists have measured new ice in Montana's Glacier National Park and atop Colorado's Front Range mountains. In northwest Wyoming, there is photographic evidence of snowfield growth after Bob Comey, director of the Bridger-Teton National Forest Avalanche Center, compared photos of peaks from year to year. October 29, 2011: early winter not confined to the northeast
October 29, 2011: early winter storm
As of Saturday, October 28, 2011, snowfall, adjectives taken from link above:
  • NYC Central Park, 2.9 inches (since 1869 when snowfall records began), the Park had never received a inch of snow on any given October day; the last time the Park had any recorded measurable snow, 1952, one-half inch
  • Hartford, CT: buried, 12.3 inches of snow; the previous record, 1.7 inches, October 10, 1979
  • Worcester, MA: all-time October snowfall record, 11.4 inches; previous, 7.5 inches, 1979
  • Newark, NJ: 5.2 inches; again, an all-time record for October; previously, never an inch on any October day
  • Concord, NH: blanketed; 13.6 inches; the previous daily record, 0.2 inch back in 1952
  • Albany, NY: 3.8 inches; previous record, 0.4 inch, 2000
  • Pittsburgh, PA: 1.6 inches; previous record, 0.6 inch, 2008
  • Philadelphia, PA: 0.3 inch, breaking the old record of "trace" set back in 1902
  • Wilmington, DE: 0.3 inch, surpassing the "trace" in 2002
  • Washington, DC: 0.6 inch; unprecedented in the capital; it had never received any snow on Oct 29
  • Bistol CT: 17 inches
  • Plainfield, MA; 31 inches
Original Post
"Early snowfall wreaking havoc on the east coast." -- ESPN2, 4:32 CST.  What is this? October?
New York Times: first snowfall in October since the Civil War.
New York has today been hit by more than one inch of snowfall before Halloween for the first time ever - with experts predicting much more on the way.

A classic nor'easter is chugging up the East Coast at an unusually early period and expected to dump up to 10 inches throughout the region.

More than 1.5 million homes have lost power in the storm.

Some places in mid-Atlantic states saw more than half a foot of snow and approximately 250,000 customers lost power in Pennsylvania and Maryland, requiring utility crews from Ohio and Kentucky to fix it.
Incredible. So much for global warming.

This is what I never hear from those who take umbrage with my global warming posts:
  • no one ever admits that we are talking about 0.6 degrees Celsius over 100 years -- neither statistically significant nor reproducible. Again...0.6 degrees Celsius over 100 years; if science were always so precise ... again, 0.6 degrees... are you kidding?
  • no evidence of receding beaches or loss of islands worldwide as predicted with ice caps melting; in fact, a published study shows hundreds of new islands since "global warming" become mainstream -- 657 new islands, Huffington Post, hardly a Fox contributor
  • Al Gore emphatically stated "we" had ten years or it would be too late; it's been ten years, or very, very close -- any dire consequences to date? Does anyone see any dire consequences in the next 10 years? If so, what are they? And please don't talk about the polar bears, another scam that was exposed.
  • no one discusses the fact that without China, India, Brazil, etc., playing by the same rules as "developed" nations. anything the US does will result in no change on a global basis
  • no one talks about the positive consequences of global warming (if it exists), such as ice-free passage from northeast Canada to the Arctic; the "fact" that something is happening, doesn't mean that it's necessarily bad; is "global warming" a net negative?  Again, we're talking 0.6 degrees over 100 years
  • no one ever talks about the economic impact of Al Gore's recommendations
  • no one admits that the prevailing attitude is changing regarding "belief" in global warming based on numerous polls; I am hardly alone on this side of the issue; almost half of Americans consider "global warming issues exaggerated" (48%)
On another note, folks often point out that I never talk about the hot weather spells reported around the world over the past ten years: why would I argue with myself? There's plenty of other folks who will point out the hot weather to counter my cold weather arguments; so, yes, I only present facts that support my argument -- well, duh.

0.6 degrees Celsius over 100 years. Are you kidding?

But this is my favorite: folks saying I troll for people to come to my site when I make these posts. Well duh. Of course, I want folks to come to my site. A page view is a page view.

The Boogie Man Chronicles

Reality: Nemo, New England nor'easter, February 8 - 9, 2013, set new record for Portland, Maine, last set in 1979; fifth or sixth "worse" (or, for children, the "best") storm in history; currently; another inch or so, and it will move to 5th.
Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past, The Independent, March 20, 2000.

Britain's winter ends tomorrow with further indications of a striking environmental change: snow is starting to disappear from our lives.
Sledges, snowmen, snowballs and the excitement of waking to find that the stuff has settled outside are all a rapidly diminishing part of Britain's culture, as warmer winters - which scientists are attributing to global climate change - produce not only fewer white Christmases, but fewer white Januaries and Februaries.
"Children won't know what snow is," says Dr Viner (apparently the "V" is pronounced as a "w"), as repeated by Christopher England, November 28, 2011. 

US Troops Killed In Afghanistan ... Meanwhile, the Administration Looking to Cut Military Health Benefits

Troops killed. And here. And here.
In the latter case, "...He leaves behind his wife, Sarah, and daughters Mikajasa and Aaliyah..." who can look forward to a cut in military health care benefits if administration gets its way.
Looking to cut military health benefits. Apparently the military is just not giving enough these days for Senator McCain who has greatly benefited from the military in general and military health benefits specifically.

"All give/gave some, some gave all."

Bio of Andrew Gould, Chairman and Former CEO of Schlumberger

Link here. -- Rigzone.

Follow-Up on the NYT Article on Natural Gas Scam

Link here.
In what now seems like the distant past, The New York Times wrote a series of articles suggesting that industry practitioners were raising questions about the economic performance of the gas shale wells and thus whether the extent of the resource was over stated.  Those articles were written in late June and generated a firestorm of reaction within the natural gas industry, but also among Washington politicians. What followed was disclosure that a handful of E&P companies, active in the gas shale business, had received subpoenas from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for their records of well performance and the economics of behind their reserve calculations. The data was sought to compare with the companies' disclosure regulatory filings and investor presentations of the operational risks, production performance and economics of these gas shale wells. At the time the subpoenas were disclosed, we wrote about it in the Musings (last July), fully anticipating that there would be further disclosures. Since mid-summer, there has been no activity arising from the subpoenas. 
Go to the link for the rest of the story.

Bottom line: SEC has 4,000  employees. They have one geologist.

Random Photos of the New Location and Building for Oasis -- The Bakken, North Dakota, USA

This is located west of Williston, and a bit north of the other industrial parks. This is yet another industrial park, albeit much smaller than the others going in around Williston.

As the road curves around, heading south and then to the east, one ends up at Spring Lake Park area. One can stay on the east side of the highway and drive right up to Wal-Mart.

Update on Scanlan 3-5H -- The Bakken, North Dakota, USA

A reader requested an update on this well.  Tested about one year go, it has reached the "100,000 club."

Production has leveled off at about 4,000 bbls/ month.

NDIC File No: 18770     API No: 33-105-01803-00-00     County: WILLIAMS     CTB No: 118770
Well Type: OG     Well Status: A     Status Date: 9/8/2010     Wellbore type: HORIZONTAL
Location: NENW 5-153-98    
Lateral 1 Start Coordinates 18 S 43 W From Wellhead, End Coordinates 4417 S 6837 E From Wellhead
Current Well Name: SCANLAN 3-5H
Original Well Name: SCANLAN 3-5H
Total Depth: 18955     Field: TRUAX
Spud Date(s):  6/4/2010

Completion Data
   Pool: BAKKEN     Perfs: 11381-18955     Comp: 9/8/2010     Status: F     Date: 9/10/2010     Spacing: 2SEC
Cumulative Production Data
   Pool: BAKKEN     Cum Oil: 101341     Cum MCF Gas: 115942     Cum Water: 49750
Production Test Data
   IP Test Date: 9/8/2010     Pool: BAKKEN     IP Oil: 819     IP MCF: 1869     IP Water: 1145

Mining and Longer Laterals in the Bakken, North Dakota, USA

Elsewhere they are talking about EOG infill wells in the Parshall oil field and the Van Hook oil field.

This may become a nice thread for newbies to get a feeling for what's happening in the Bakken.

The new buzz word in the Bakken is "mining." Just weeks earlier, the buzz word was "manufacturing." I don't know who first associated these concepts with the Bakken, but it might have been Harold Hamm.

Regardless, the point is that in several areas of the Bakken, it's no longer about "exploration." Rather, the Bakken is looking more and more like a "mining" operation. I've referred to it as "groundhog day." The trucks start fueling about 6:00 a.m. and the long line of trucks start heading out for the fields about 6:30. If you are on the road later than 6:30, be prepared for long waits at intersections requiring a left-hand turn.

The roads remain busy throughout the day, but activity seems to be a bit quieter near the city. And then starting about 6:00 p.m. the traffic starts increasing again, as trucks head back to the industrial parks.

Another observation at the link above, is the amount of acreage under water. This is not a big deal. I looked at this last year, and it appears all acreage can be reached from dry land, with the longest horizontal having to go maybe 2.5 miles. There could be exceptions. As noted, I do recall having posted a story about some extended long laterals. Here are a couple of those links:

EOG hits total depth with longest horizontal in the Bakken
Based on data at NDIC, EOG should have reached TD for the longest horizontal to date in the Bakken by now: #20037, Liberty LR 17-11H, 25,000 feet with extended long lateral under the river. 25,000 / 5,280 =  4.74 miles.  Vertical is about 10,000 feet, so the horizontal is about 15,000 feet, just under 3 miles. [Update: 790, s1/11; t6/11; cum 92K 11/11; 16K/month]
GMXR plans a 21,151 total depth well in the Bakken
The Company has completed the drilling of its first Three Forks horizontal well. The Wock 21-1-1H in Stark County, North Dakota reached total depth of 21,151’ with a horizontal lateral length of 10,281’, which included drilling a vertical pilot hole and performing additional testing. Oil shows were predominant in the vertical and horizontal lateral while drilling in the Three Forks formation.

The Halliburton Rapid Frac™ sliding sleeve system has been installed with stimulation expected the week of September 26th. The Wock 21-1-1H well is scheduled for a 41-stage completion with oil production expected by October 1, 2011.
Unless there's a typo in the press release, or on the NDIC GIS map server, I am missing something (which wouldn't be the first time). The press released called it the Wock 21-1-1H, and the GIS map server shows only one well with a name that close: the Wock 21-1-1H, file #21002. I know wells are re-named, and I may have missed that. Interestingly enough, the GIS map server does not show the horizontal for this well yet.

Beautiful, Balmy Day in the Bakken -- The Bakken, North Dakota, USA

Wow, what an incredible beautiful day in the Bakken -- 7:48 -- on the road by 6:30 -- balmy, shirtsleeve weather -- I understand there's a huge snowstorm heading for Boston, a cold spell southwest of us in Wyoming, but here in the the land of harsh winters, it's shirtsleeve weather and will warm up throughout the day.

I post this video often, helps me start the day or end the day, it really doesn't matter.

Slim Dusty: one of the best for truckers.

Looking Forward, Looking Back, Slim Dusty

And just for the fun of it:

Under the Spell of the Highway, Slim Dusty

Friday, October 28, 2011

From Tom McMahon -- Absolutely Nothing To Do With the Bakken

I generally don't do this but this is too good to let pass. From Tom McMahon's blog a few days ago:
Reuters reports that former Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi has died, but the U.S. State Department has yet to confirm the spelling.

From Carpe Diem: 2,000 Job Openings Every Day -- The Bakken, North Dakota, USA

Link here.

2,000 job openings daily. This, in a town with a population of 10,000 or so before the boom. [And North Dakota still has a 3.5% unemployment rate. What's wrong with that picture?]

But do not come to the Bakken unprepared. If you don't have a reservation or a place to stay before you arrive, you won't find one when you get here. Period. Dot.

If you are an entrepreneur, have your financing arranged before you get here, and have a business plan that will pass the county and city permitting process.

And for entrepreneurs, know how you will staff your operation: as noted at the link above, there are 2,000 job openings every day in the Bakken, and far fewer than 2,000 people to fill them.

If you have a commercial driver's license (CDL) and plan to drive a truck, you have to have an absolutely clean driving record. Companies will not hire those who cannot be insured. Underwriters continuously monitor motor vehicle driving records.

Don't worry about bringing warm weather gear. You can find everything you need at Home of Economy on the Million Dollar Way.

You Have Got To Be Kidding ---

This is absolutely crazy.

Readers should know by now that I am no fan of wind or solar energy based on "the math."

But with regard to the off-shore wind project in Massachusetts I support it. The developer has played by the rules, has gone through every permitting exercise, passed every judicial test, and when I last heard about the project, it appeared ready to go.

Now, this. It's just being reported -- 20 minutes ago that the project has been put on judicial hold.

Link here.

I haven't read any more than the headline and the first paragraph, so I will post this and then we can read the story together.
A federal court today rejected an FAA ruling that the project’s turbines present ‘‘no hazard’’ to aviation, overturning a vital clearance for the offshore wind farm.
So, it's the federal government. It's the Obama administration that has turned this upside down. I wonder what Massachusetts billionaire got the ear of the federal judge? Absolutely incredible. And folks wonder why the US economy has stagnated.

Mark Rodgers had this to say:
“The FAA has reviewed Cape Wind for eight years and repeatedly determined that Cape Wind did not pose a hazard to air navigation. The essence of today’s court ruling is that the FAA needs to better explain its Determination of No Hazard. We are confident that after the FAA does this, that their decision will stand and we do not foresee any impact on the project’s schedule in moving forward.  Really, today’s court decision doesn’t change things very much because our existing Determination of No Hazard (the 3rd we have received since we started with this project) was set to expire in just 90 days and we were going to have to re-apply at that time anyway, this lets us begin that process sooner.”
What a gentleman. He has the patience of a saint.

So, the "existing document" expires in 90 days -- and it's the third such document -- and now they begin the process anew. This is absolute insanity. No wonder the US is suffering from Carter/Obama malaise (COM). Or "carterobamamalaise."

As far as I know, no whooping cranes will be hurt by the Massachusetts Cape Wind project. Maybe an occasional seagull.

Wow - Fourteen (14) New Permits -- The Bakken, North Dakota, USA

Daily activity report, October 28, 2011 --

Operators: Petro-Hunt (6), Samson Resources (2), MRO (2), Hess (2), BEXP, CLR

Fields: Four Bears, Alger, St Demetrius, Juno, Capa, Murphy Creek

Two wells released from "tight status" reported their IPs (2/2) --finally all wells coming off confidential list were completed/fracked.

CLR reported a nice IP for a producing well:
19535, 863, CLR, Omar 3-12H, Demores Federal 31-10TFH, Billings

Based on the number of permits, no evidence of slowdown in the field or in the NDIC office.

Idle Chatter On Up-Front Cost for Wells in the Bakken, North Dakota, USA

Random thought following two wells that reported IPs today:
  • 20552, 682, G3 Operating, Muller 1-21-16H, Climax, Bakken, long lateral, 38 stages, 4 million lbs non-sand proppant
  • 19528, 810, EOG, Van Hook 16-35H, Van Hook, Bakken, short lateral, 9 stages, 2 million lbs sand only
Again, IPs may or may not mean all that much. Note the one is a short lateral; the other is a long lateral. With the short lateral, you have EOG using sand only for the frac, which is about 1/5th the cost of ceramics (I could be way off on that; I  heard that in passing) and using only half as much total sand/proppant. Granted, the Van Hook oil field is a great field.The Climax is a new field, and pretty much on the edge of the good Bakken. It is located along the Montana border, northwest of Williston, up near Grenora. And maybe that's what it took -- a long lateral, 38 stages, and 4 million pounds of proppants to get an IP of 682.

Or I suppose one could simply say that this is how much better the "good part" of the Bakken is compared to outlying areas.

This is the first well in this Van Hook section. It certainly "cost" EOG a whole lot less to hold this section lease by production than the G3 well, based on length of horizontal, number of stages, and amount and type of proppant. 

Again, just idle chatter, but I'm starting to get a feel for fracking. (Numbers above rounded, in some cases.)

Random Note About Cheniere Energy -- LNG -- Implications for the Bakken, North Dakota, USA

Back on August 24, 2011, I posted Jim Cramer's top oil and gas picks.

On that date, Cheniere Energy (LNG) was selling for $7.12. From there Cheniere took a rather sudden fall to a low of $4.00 on October 3. Yes, one could have bought LNG at $4.00 earlier this month.

Following landmark news earlier this week that the US will be exporting liquid natural gas through the terminal owned by Cheniere, Cheniere's stock has turned around. Today, I see Cheniere selling for almost $11, up about 3.5 percent, on an otherwise flat day for the market.If you bought at $4 and it gets to $12, you've tripled your money in a month. (Disclaimer: this is not an investment site; it is for information, education, and entertainment. I hold no shares of LNG or ONEOK. Nor do any of my relatives as far as I know.)

ONEOK Partnerships is building three new cryo liquid natural gas processing facilities west of Williston.

By the way, when you go back to that link you will see a nice comment regarding these plants. This comment was particularly interesting: ".... while significant to the local economy, [the new ONEOK natural gas processing plants] have relatively small capacity."

The link to the US Energy Information Administration on natural gas processing plants in the US: 2010 update --

Some data points from that update:
  • There are 493 operational natural gas processing plants in the US
  • Plants are getting bigger: operating capacity nationwide increased 12 percent; the number of processing plants in the lower 48 decreased by 8 percent
  • Between 2004 and 2009, the average plant capacity increased from 114 million cubic feet to 139 million cubic feet (each ONEOK plant west of Williston will be rated 100 million cubic feet)
Two comments: "relatively small" might be a bit misleading. Based on the data points and the map at the link, one could argue that each plant is about average, and taken as a group, they would be well above average. Whatever.

More important is the comment that "while significant to the local economy..." -- wow, that is so true. I think one of the things that folks forget when talking about the Bakken, the vast amount of production is coming from six or seven counties in western North Dakota. The population of the entire state is not much more than 600,00 about half the population of my current home, San Antonio. And in these few counties, there are only two towns of any real size, Dickinson and Williston (Minot is just east of the activity for the moment), and they only have about 40,000 residents together.

[One of the nice things about the Bakken is that like Linde, who is building these plants, for the most part, the operators are second or third tier. It was the likes of Continental Resources, Whiting, Brigham, Northern Oil and Gas,  Kodiak Oil and Gas, and others that promoted the Bakken from the beginning, not XOM or CVX. The Bakken  has allowed some small players in oil and gas to move to a new level. Of course, the big oil service companies have always been here: SLB, HAL, BHI, Weatherford, etc.]

But, again, I digress.

I believe the construction costs of these three natural gas plants is about $150 million apiece. In 2010, Williston set a record with $100 million in building permits; in 2011, Williston will triple that record with $300 million in building permits.

Each of these three plants will have about the same capacity of the Hess facility at Tioga (110 million cubic feet) which is a fairly significant operation for this area. 

So, yes, these facilities during the construction phase, and then during operations, will have a huge impact on the local economy.

Oh, by the way, the natural gas you see flaring: the value of the natural gas compared to the total value of the Bakken production is four (4) percent.


Chevron beats by $0.50, beats on revs
Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $3.92 per share, $0.50 better than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $3.42; sales and other operating rev rose 26.2% year/year to $61.26 bln vs the $58.79 bln consensus. Worldwide net oil-equivalent production was 2.60 million barrels per day in the third quarter 2011, down from 2.74 million barrels per day in the 2010 third quarter. Production increases from project ramp-ups in Canada, ....
The above link is dynamic and will change.

Earnings more than double year-over-year.
Chevron reported earnings of $7.8 billion ($3.92 per share – diluted) for the third quarter 2011, compared with $3.8 billion ($1.87 per share – diluted) in the 2010 third quarter.

Sales and other operating revenues in the third quarter 2011 were $61 billion, up from $48 billion in the year-ago period, mainly due to higher prices for crude oil and refined products.

Exporting $3 Natural Gas; Importing $100 Oil -- The American Way -- By The Way, How Many Bats Does It Take To Stop A Windmill?

Link here
BG Group will export liquefied natural gas from the United States under a landmark $8 billion deal with Cheniere Energy that will allow domestic producers to ship bountiful shale gas supplies to the world for the first time.
So, if I understand this correctly, the US is exporting $3 natural gas and importing $100 oil for our own energy needs. Okay.

I cannot take credit for that pithy comment and analysis. That was sent to me by Don via the MDU message board over on Yahoo!

This could have been added: in lieu of $3 natural gas, we're building whooping crane killers which are turned off at night anyway to protect the bats.

The note above is tongue-in-cheek, but the link with regard to the bat will take you to a really neat story. Whether you agree with the writer's perspective or not, it's fun to read, and has a great picture of a little bat.

"Frat" Houses in Williston -- The Bakken, North Dakota, USA

Back in the 1970s a lot of single family homes in Williston, two story-homes with a basement, were refurbished as 3-bedroom apartments and before the boom were renting out to low income folks for about $300 (often less)/month/apartment, resulting in <$1,000/month for the entire house.

Some of these houses in Williston are now going for $7,000/month for the entire house, for three oil workers. This would happen regardless of status of man camps. But with man-camp moratorium, oil field workers will look for options. Paying about $3,500 for a man-camp room/month, a $7,000/month for three is quite a savings. Of course the man-camp provides all meals and a few other amenities. I assume the same thing is going on in farmsteads around the county. While out and about in the Bakken, I am driving by more and more farm homes with more than seven or eight vehicles in the yard. And they aren't combines.

The rooms are continuously occupied; if the oil worker heads home for his/her two weeks off, his/her replacement moves in. Some workers are willing to pay for the rent even if they aren't there, just to hold it when they return.

Professionally-run man-camps are tightly regulated: alcohol, illegal arrangements, drugs, guns, altercations.  One of the things oil field workers gain by moving to "frat" houses in Williston neighborhoods is lack of this tight regulation.

Over time the man-camp management develops a close relationship with city leaders and law enforcement agencies. There is a single point of contact for social workers if necessary.

"Frat houses" would occur  no matter how many man-camps were in place, but with a moratorium in place on new professionally-managed man-camps a subliminal message is sent to folks that "frat" houses are among the few options left.

Just saying.

Maytag To Cut 5,000 -- Absolutely Nothing to Do With the Bakken

Link here.
Whirlpool Corp, the world's largest appliance maker, slashed its profit forecast for the year and said it would cut 5,000 jobs, citing a weak global economic environment.
This is 2.5 times more than what Lowe's plans to cut, announced earlier this month. 

Both of these cuts pale in comparison to Bank of America's plan to slash 40,000 jobs nationwide and 120,000 at the US Postal Service announced earlier this year.

Folks in western North Dakota are very, very fortunate. 

Thursday, October 27, 2011

For Investors Only: CVX Bests XOM, COP --

Link here.
Over the years these three bounce back and forth among themselves; perhaps at this point in time CVX beats COP and XOM, but others can argue that COP is undervalued and when natural gas "comes back" COP will be well positioned. 
I post this mostly for interest and because CVX will reports earnings tomorrow, Friday, before the opening.

OXY Posts 48% Increase in Earnings -- The Bakken, North Dakota, USA

Link here.
Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY) announced earnings from continuing operations of $1.8 billion ($2.18 per diluted share) for the third quarter of 2011, compared with $1.2 billion ($1.48 per diluted share) for the third quarter of 2010. Net income was $1.8 billion ($2.17 per diluted share) for the third quarter of 2011, compared with the $1.2 billion ($1.46 per diluted share) for the third quarter of 2010.
And again, the Bakken plays a role:
The third quarter 2011 production volume increase was a result of 56,000 BOE per day higher domestic volumes, partially offset by lower volumes in the Middle East/North Africa and Colombia. The domestic increase was from Midcontinent and Other, including the new acquisitions in South Texas and the North Dakota Williston Basin, and California.

Top Leasing Will Be Anecdotal But Won't Have Any Material Effect On Any Particular Operator

Link here from the Watford newspaper -- this link will break soon.
According to Allison Ritter, Public Information specialist for the N.D. Department of Mineral Resources, Oil and Gas Division, for the next few years there will be an estimated 225 rigs in western North Dakota, and they’re not going anywhere.

Ritter states that 225 rigs can drill 1,100 to 2,700 wells per year. There are 5,000 wells needed to secure leases in western North Dakota, and 225 wells can drill enough wells to secure those leases in 2.5 years.
Even more staggering is the estimation that if those 225 rigs accomplish what the Oil and Gas Division is projecting, then there could be 33,000 wells drilled over the next 14  years.

“There are already 5,951 active wells in western North Dakota,” Ritter states. “If 2,700 wells are drilled per year, then approximately 28,000 additional wells will be drilled in the next 14 years.”
This is an incredibly interesting article. I was wondering how to get this information -- if all the leases could be secured.

It's been my contention that the leases can be secured, but message boards have suggested I am in the minority on this issue.

A big thank you to Kent for sending me this link. I would have missed it. Finally some numbers to work with regarding leases. My own database suggested that it would not be difficult for leases to be secured for the most part. There will be some anecdotal stories about top leasing, but I doubt they will have a material effect on any specific company.
In addition, 33,000 active wells could create 30,000 to 35,000 long-term jobs in western North Dakota over the next 14 years.

Presently, according to Ritter, the total rig count is 197, so that is still a ways off from the estimated 225 total rigs in western North Dakota.

The main reason being that, “A lot of rigs actually need to be built,” Ritter states. “The oil industry is moving faster than rigs can be made, so operators are building them and bringing them in as soon as they can.”
So, another data point explaining why we may not seeing the number of rigs increasing in the Bakken as fast as some said they would.