Friday, December 17, 2021

Damn The Torpedoes, Full Speed Ahead -- MRO -- Very, Very Interesting -- December 17, 2021

I've posted many times about the incredible Bailey oil field. I'm convinced MRO has a vice-president of operations whose only job is to manage this field. My hunch: an intern, recent engineering graduate from UND.

See this post, plus another one that was started late last night and is still in progress.

*******************************
Damn The Torpedoes -- Full Speed Ahead

Active rigs: daily active rigs being reported by NDIC -- 32 -- I did not check the list for duplicates; one is a SWD well; 

$70.86
12/17/202112/17/202012/17/201912/17/201812/17/2017
Active Rigs31
14526853

Seven new permits, #38704 - #38710, inclusive

  • Operator: MRO:
  • Field: Bailey (Dunn)
  • Comments:
    • MRO has permits for a seven-well pad, on NENW 17-146-93, all of them to be sited 450 FNL and then between 2236 FWL and 1996 FWL -- that's forty feet between each well; 
    • the permits: Alvin, Arelia, Sease, KB, Rixman, Comstock, and Yockim

Although we don't have scout ticket data for these new permits, based on their location it is likely they will run north and in the 1280-acre drilling unit: sections 5/8-146-93.

There are currently two parent wells in this drilling unit, #16729 to the east, and #18384 to the west.

The wells:

  • 16729, 348, MRO, Vihon 44-8H, Bailey, SESE 8-146-93, 33-025-00647, t11/07; cum 393K 10/21; production jump in 2012; the well originally drilled back in 2007;
BAKKEN11-2012301119011629379338983152570
BAKKEN10-20121124871678298364107204
BAKKEN9-20120000000
BAKKEN8-20120000000
BAKKEN7-20121100000
BAKKEN6-20120000000
BAKKEN5-20120000000
BAKKEN4-20120000000
BAKKEN3-20120000000
BAKKEN2-20121000330
BAKKEN1-20120000000
BAKKEN12-20117209475271651295
BAKKEN11-2011301203116023290769037
BAKKEN10-2011311264113826295572052
BAKKEN9-2011301246140028395368093
  • 18384, 394, MRO, Glenn Eckelberg 24-8H, Bailey, SESW 8-146-93, 33-025-00990, t5/10; cum 487K 10/21; production jump in 2014; the well originally drilled back in 2010;
BAKKEN11-2014301302613128647273912935525
BAKKEN10-20142711742117066005661115463654
BAKKEN9-20143012466125115669729042421535
BAKKEN8-20142515129147993964916547082691
BAKKEN7-20141100000
BAKKEN6-2014271029114484671543421
BAKKEN5-20143113041376837927428173
BAKKEN4-20143013041400837949493137
BAKKEN3-201431139511778661001563103
BAKKEN2-20142812221181767853421133

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NDSU Coming To Frisco! -- December 17, 2021

I hope you are all watching -- NDSU vs James Madison --  NDSU, 20 - James Madison, 14. No one, but no one, is wearing a mask.

Poll to the right: will NFL postpone any games? Yup, three games scheduled for this weekend have been postponed. 

*******************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: daily active rigs being reported by NDIC -- 32 -- I did not check the list for duplicates; one is a SWD well; 

$70.86
12/17/202112/17/202012/17/201912/17/201812/17/2017
Active Rigs31
14526853

Seven new permits, #38704 - #38710, inclusive

  • Operator: MRO:
  • Field: Bailey (Dunn)
  • Comments:
    • MRO has permits for a seven-well pad, on NENW 17-146-93, all of them to be sited 450 FNL and then between 2236 FWL and 1996 FWL -- that's forty feet between each well; 
    • the permits: Alvin, Arelia, Sease, KB, Rixman, Comstock, and Yockim

Six permits renewed:

  • Grayson Mill: five Pyramid permits and one Hawkeye permit, all in Williams County; all in NWNW 15-154-101;

Six producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 38237, 1,191, CLR, Jenson 11-8HSL1, Chimney Butte, minimal production;
  • 37408, 1,660, CLR, Rodney 14-29HSL, Cedar Coulee, minimal production;
  • 37396, 1,144, CLR, Rodney 11-29H1, Cedar Coulee, minimal production;
  • 37409, 1,046, CLR, Rodney 13-29H1, Cedar Coulee, minimal production;
  • 37377, 1,152, CLR, Rodeny 6-29H1, Cedar Coulee, minimal production;
  • 37376, 1,351, CLR, Rodney 5-29H, Cedar Coulee, minimal production;
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Soybean Oil Manufacturing Plant -- Spiritwood, ND -- MPC, ADM -- Close On Deal -- December 17, 2021

 Link here.

  • JV: Archer-Daniels-Midland, Marathon Petroleum Corporation (the refiner)
  • product: soybean oil --> renewable diesel fuel
  • ADM: 75%
  • MPC: 25%
  • to be completed in 2023
  • product to be supplied to MPC
  • 600 million lbs of refined soybean oil per year--> 75 million gallons of diesel per year
    • diesel: one gallon = 137,381 Btu
    • North Dakota consumption: 100 trillion Btu distillate fuel oil
    • 100,000,000,000,000 / 137,381 = 730 million gallons per year
    • Spiritwood: about 10% of ND's annual distillate fuel consumption (?)
  • disclaimer: I often make simple arithmetic errors.
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North Dakota Aerial Photography -- Vern Whitten -- December 17, 2021

Wow, what a Christmas treat! Enjoy.

From Vern Whitten: http://www.vernwhittenphotography.net/JUS1221/.

Mr Whitten would love to hear from and may appreciate ideas for future photographs.

Favorite pictures, and comments:

  • favorite picture: rec center in Watford City, #4
  • well fire, #5
  • downhill biking, interesting, #8
  • Amazon Fargo, #17
  • Tinker Toy, Big Iron, Fargo, #20
  • field art, #23

Again, say "hi" to Vern!

Vern Whitten Photography
www.vernwhittenphotography.com
(701) 261-7658

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Director's Cut -- October, 2021, Data

Usual disclaimer: this is done for my benefit. I do it quickly. There will be content and typographical errors. I generally do not go back to correct errors. If this is important to you, go to the source.

Link here.

Crude oil production:

  • October, 2021: 1,110,321 bopd
  • September, 2020: 1,114,020 bopd
  • a decrease of 3,699 bopd month/month
  • a decrease of 0.3%

Natural gas production:

  • October, 2021: 92,937,382 mcf/day
  • September, 2021: 90,625,657 mcf/day
  • an increase of 2,311,725 mcf/day
  • an increase of 2.6%

Gas capture: 94%.

Crude price, ND light sweet (WTI):

  • today: $66.25 ($71.55)
  • October: $74.35 ($81.22)
  • September: $64.37 ($72.38)

In conjunction with the Director's Cut, see the December dashboards:

More from the Director's Cut:

Rig count:

  • today: 32 (including SWD rigs)
  • November: 33
  • October: 29
  • September: 27

Wells, permitted:

  • November: 50
  • October: 37
  • September: 69

Wells completed:

  • November (preliminary): 60
  • October (revised: 41
  • September (final): 34

Wells inactive:

  • October: 1,881
  • September: 1,696

Wells waiting on completion (DUCs):

  • October: 457
  • September: 503

Wells, producing:

  • October: 17,163 (preliminary)
  • September: 17,051

Wells off line for operational reasons tracked here.

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Of The Three FracFocus Reports Checked For The Most Recent Bruin FB Belford Wells --- ?? -- December 17, 2021

Another Eagle Nest Bruin FB Belford well came off the confidential list yesterday:

Thursday, December 16, 2021: 70 for the month, 73 for the quarter, 325 for the year:

  • 36303, conf, Bruin, FB Belford 148-95-22D-15-13T-LL, 33-025-03776, Eagle Nest, first production, 6/21; t--; cum 125K 10/21; 
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-20212630239502
9-20212323131333
8-20212251226863
7-20212983031424
6-20212333521520

The FB Belford wells are tracked here. They were the first wells to roll out with Bakken 4.5, pad drilling.

Frack data for #36303:

  • FracFocus lists two fracks, both with same dates, 5/11/21 - 5/21/21:
    • the first frack: 8.25 million gallons of waer; 83% water by mass; 10.13% sand by mass;
    • the second frack: 8.8 million gallons of water; 83.1% water by mass; 10.13% sand by mass;
    • I wonder if the second wasn't an update or a correction of the first.

Let's check out another Bruin FB Belford well:

  • 36302, conf, Bruin, FB Belford 148-95-22D-15-14B-LL, 33-025-03775, Eagle Nest, first production, 6/21; t--; cum 122K 10/21; 122K in less than five months; well, this is certainly unusual, again, two fracks, same dates, 5/11/21 - 5/22/21:
    • first frack: 8.367 million gallons of water, 83.0% water by mass; 10.224% sand by mass;
    • second frack: 8.94 million gallons of water, 83.04% water by mass; 10.224% sand by mass
    • although the total gallons differed between fracks, the percentages were identical out to the fifth decimal place certainly suggests updated / corrected document;

What about an older FB Belford permit?

  • #22300, SI/A, Bruin, FB Belford 148-95-22D-15-2T, Eagle Nest, 33-025-01602, first production, 9/21; t--; ; cum 22K 10/21;
  • again, two frack reports, again with same dates, 5/23/21 - 5/29/21
    • first frack: 4.148 million gallons of water; 81.58336% water by mass; 9.89372% sand by mass;
    • second frack: 4.515 million gallons of water, 81.58336% water by mass; 9.89372% sand by mass;

You now have the same data I have. 

Two of three parent wells for the FB Belford wells are "AB." The third went offline 4/19 and didn't return to production until 10/21 -- almost two years later. Of course, there is a jump in production but that may not mean anything other than being off line for two years. Having said that, in conventional wells there is always risk taking a well off line for two years, and there had been talk that there was a similar risk taking Bakken wells off line for that length of time. So far, I've not seen that risk play out in the Bakken.

A parent well:

  • 18968, 875, Bruin, Fort Berthold 148-95-22D-15-1H, Eagle Nest, 33-025-01086, t9/12; cum 312K 10/21; full production , below:
    • one frack: 9/14/12
      • 2.945 million gallons of water; 89.27% water by mass; ceramic, 9.5% by mass;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN10-202131439943882520839142785392
BAKKEN9-2021263634530110899
BAKKEN8-20210000000
BAKKEN7-20210000000
BAKKEN6-20210000000
BAKKEN5-20210000000
BAKKEN4-20210000000
BAKKEN3-202131000000
BAKKEN2-20210000000
BAKKEN1-20210000000
BAKKEN12-20200000000
BAKKEN11-20200000000
BAKKEN10-20200000000
BAKKEN9-20200000000
BAKKEN8-20200000000
BAKKEN7-20200000000
BAKKEN6-20200000000
BAKKEN5-20200000000
BAKKEN4-20200000000
BAKKEN3-20200000000
BAKKEN2-20200000000
BAKKEN1-20200000000
BAKKEN12-20190000000
BAKKEN11-20190000000
BAKKEN10-20190000000
BAKKEN9-20190000000
BAKKEN8-20190000000
BAKKEN7-20190000000
BAKKEN6-20190000000
BAKKEN5-20190000000
BAKKEN4-20191568611063351715797103
BAKKEN3-2019311808173755035121586162
BAKKEN2-20192817071597663241719760
BAKKEN1-201931171018068543221272310
BAKKEN12-201831202419197613153263943
BAKKEN11-20182917831925897123878042
BAKKEN10-20183116081795672214516685
BAKKEN9-2018301449129310421960144257
BAKKEN8-20183114521842128818921500157
BAKKEN7-2018311554163466022401815184
BAKKEN6-20183021171950104430122486128
BAKKEN5-2018311851165110302451186078
BAKKEN4-2018302069303098827131545731
BAKKEN3-2018301748130710402009965714
BAKKEN2-20182817181665785205916610
BAKKEN1-20183118241909980233918830
BAKKEN12-20173122211941869335528472
BAKKEN11-20173024892204106133542961183
BAKKEN10-2017312800304398236502902531
BAKKEN9-201730249320361050276214751077
BAKKEN8-2017302520288091127421879653
BAKKEN7-2017302502227091325391586743
BAKKEN6-2017282289254290022711670405
BAKKEN5-201720137092011071102860102
BAKKEN4-201721130816165701293109452
BAKKEN3-201731208519217731812158510
BAKKEN2-201728200725477551558132537
BAKKEN1-2017311933149775817021266219
BAKKEN12-2016261740158612801112581349
BAKKEN11-201641374749621817713
BAKKEN10-2016311967239989318241504103
BAKKEN9-20163021461966803204618297
BAKKEN8-201631236820181011235121340
BAKKEN7-20163123422442958242322051
BAKKEN6-20163022532330853230120874
BAKKEN5-201631240822201217165814410
BAKKEN4-2016292015191317471818159916
BAKKEN3-20161715151877639178816690
BAKKEN2-2016292966266212503170290067
BAKKEN1-2016313137329214773072283322
BAKKEN12-2015313309330914423417314456
BAKKEN11-2015303347358916074037381116
BAKKEN10-2015313815361022383800352756
BAKKEN9-2015323405071509930
BAKKEN8-2015182093239593423942127141
BAKKEN7-2015313968378623154352408946
BAKKEN6-2015293886370020124196394152
BAKKEN5-2015314227428117784680437093
BAKKEN4-20153043694369174447734370193
BAKKEN3-20153046715458230050334335488
BAKKEN2-20152742933844200044384135114
BAKKEN1-2015315116480924205556531128
BAKKEN12-20143148654865243347834459107
BAKKEN11-2014305097532426674911465744
BAKKEN10-20143153655070309456265305104
BAKKEN9-20143055285977349655144967337
BAKKEN8-20143159796159449257894913659
BAKKEN7-201431625660164736554635871742
BAKKEN6-201430406038134693304213761456
BAKKEN5-201424751177387310794046153157
BAKKEN4-201411446739215426430128981326
BAKKEN3-201421293215231017
BAKKEN2-201428444544401817211501919
BAKKEN1-201431480448921887442004203
BAKKEN12-201331511550352092553305316
BAKKEN11-201330444244171740983409624
BAKKEN10-20133058635740263516063015853
BAKKEN9-20133066646780278313946013736
BAKKEN8-201328709472822772680606610
BAKKEN7-201319313827601413225302120
BAKKEN6-201330603961042405363003420
BAKKEN5-201331642566462733553205315
BAKKEN4-201330690569533063448504275
BAKKEN3-201331828983903462777607559
BAKKEN2-201328815281073256707406878
BAKKEN1-20133110238101223812909508878
BAKKEN12-2012311230612383487612651012434
BAKKEN11-201230136211367160511014209932
BAKKEN10-20123119552198041431418954018744
BAKKEN9-20125406531708584740007365
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FOX, TNF, RIVN, EF-5, DMLRY, HUMMER, And EIEIO -- December 17, 2021

NFL, FOX and TNF: last night's incredibly exciting game was the last game that Fox will televise on Thursday night. 

Next Thursday, NFL Network is the only network where TNF will stream. Amazon has rights to TNF starting in CY2022 after Fox Sports relinquished that "holding" a few years early, selling to Amazon. Amazon Prime Video will stream TNF (as it has been doing this entire season) and TNF will also be available on Hulu. Link here. Last night's game which ended in an overtime win for the Chiefs, which I guess, remains a politically-correct name.

Daimler truck division: earlier I wrote that it appeared that the new ticker symbol is assigned and one is able to trade shares in the new truck division. That is apparently inaccurate. If that is accurate (that my original note was inaccurate), shares in the new Daimler truck division are not yet available.

Hobby Lobby: raising full-time minimum pay to $18 / hour.

GM: Hummer deliveries "begin." I haven't seen the photo op yet of the first customer taking delivery. GM down 5 percent in early trading today, December 17, 2021. For the past month, GM is down 14%; down $875/share. And no dividend while you are waiting. Buying opportunity today?

Hummer: cost? If you have to ask, you can't afford one. From CNBC:

  • $113,000 for the special "Edition 1" version; about 1,200 such vehicles;
  • lower-priced versions
  • Ultium platform, motors and batteries, all developed in-house by GM
  • GM: to invest about $30 billion in production and development of EV through 2025
  • back-of-the-envelope:
    • average selling price of an EV: $75,000
    • $35 billion / $75,000 = 400,000 vehicles.

Rivian: IBD. Most striking: analysts anticipated a loss of a dollar per share; in fact, $12/share. Orders placed today won't be filled until 2023 due to production constraints. Still nothing about margins.

Global warming: US tornado damage 1950 to 2021. Link here. 1950? That's about the year I was born. My mom grew up in tornado alley. I think the "thing" that frightened her the most was a tornado.


Greed: Thomas Sowell -- I have never understood why it is "greed" to want to keep the money you have earned, but not greed to want to take somebody else's money. Link here.

Covid-19: biggest mistake -- attributing current hospitalizations to the new variant, Omicron, when, in fact, it's still the Delta virus causing the current hospitalization surge. Omicron is clearly milder.

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