STR - MNRL In The News Tomorrow — December 29, 2022

Wow, Wow, Wow -- The Kraken Jenna Wells Are Going To Be Monster Wells -- December 28, 2022

Updates

January 2, 2023: important update. 

Original Post 

The Kraken Jenna wells are now being reported.

See map below; this was not on my bingo card. This is about the last oil field in which I would expect wells like this. [See update, January 2, 2023, above. Now we know why.]

I have time to post only one Jenna well:

• 38509, F/A, Kraken, Jenna 4-33-28 3H, Burg, t--; cum 239K 10/22; 240K x $70 = $17 million at the wellhead:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	10-2022	30	22682	22456	31682	23560	21909	1051
BAKKEN	9-2022	26	23726	24128	30348	27064	26215	349
BAKKEN	8-2022	31	31912	31979	43072	29040	28468	356
BAKKEN	7-2022	23	20339	20414	30387	17288	16639	490
BAKKEN	6-2022	29	30446	30501	46718	24356	23569	581
BAKKEN	5-2022	29	25162	24665	41251	17363	13170	3975
BAKKEN	4-2022	22	21001	21305	37491	14806	14129	408
BAKKEN	3-2022	20	23041	22598	43173	17051	16378	434
BAKKEN	2-2022	7	8138	8369	18609	5860	4484	1274
BAKKEN	1-2022	27	32369	31796	67382	23630	21186	2052

The map:

Updating Initial Production Data For CLR Rolf Federal Wells In One Of My Favorite Fields -- December 28, 2022

The CLR Rolf Federal wells are tracked here. 

Updates. A couple of those wells.

38297, drl/A, CLR, Rolf Federal 9-17H, Brooklyn, t--; cum 154K 10/22;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	10-2022	31	15118	15002	20012	57914	57386	125
BAKKEN	9-2022	30	21905	21795	23058	66036	64294	1358
BAKKEN	8-2022	28	22300	22385	21725	42732	40382	2021
BAKKEN	7-2022	31	41194	41517	33313	75865	71244	4222
BAKKEN	6-2022	30	42982	42746	37400	73248	70213	2660
BAKKEN	5-2022	8	10228	9867	15641	15090	14789	301
BAKKEN	4-2022	4	319	319	3740	977	0	977

38296, drl, CLR, Rolf Federal 10-17H1, Brooklyn,  t--; cum 129K 10/22: 

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	10-2022	31	15927	15835	20550	52880	52338	139
BAKKEN	9-2022	25	19775	19630	22229	44474	43858	306
BAKKEN	8-2022	23	12420	12505	13733	25034	19426	5378
BAKKEN	7-2022	31	35819	35805	34349	61224	59532	1293
BAKKEN	6-2022	30	35717	35843	37523	60945	57781	2785
BAKKEN	5-2022	8	8892	8528	15467	13484	12868	616
BAKKEN	4-2022	5	335	335	3023	0	0	0

Perhaps, the parent well:

• 20183, 282, CLR, Rolf 1-20H, Brooklyn, t6/11; cum 488K 10/22;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	10-2022	31	818	840	3875	2078	1659	0
BAKKEN	9-2022	30	763	551	3885	1657	1252	0
BAKKEN	8-2022	31	682	791	3825	1178	729	30
BAKKEN	7-2022	28	483	317	3457	634	269	10
BAKKEN	6-2022	6	0	0	12	143	141	0
BAKKEN	5-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2022	15	889	1154	872	3106	2930	0
BAKKEN	1-2022	31	2025	1907	2281	8248	7756	73
BAKKEN	12-2021	31	1967	2062	2392	9648	9011	220
BAKKEN	11-2021	30	2065	1915	2589	9066	8662	0
BAKKEN	10-2021	31	2153	2312	2803	8231	7813	0

A Hess EN-Johnson Well Is A Monster Well -- December 28, 2022

The graphics:

The Hess EN-Johnson wells are tracked here.

Here we go.

• 37711, loc/drl-->loc/A, Hess, EN-Johnson A-155-94-2932H-9, Alkali Creek, first production, 9/21; t--; cum 248K 10/22 in thirteen months; at the wellhead, $70 x 248 = $17.4 million.
  

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	10-2022	31	8560	8594	6781	37670	37311	359
BAKKEN	9-2022	30	8289	8247	7015	37272	29872	7400
BAKKEN	8-2022	31	6962	6991	15425	34750	27303	7447
BAKKEN	7-2022	31	11903	11910	13861	39377	34353	5024
BAKKEN	6-2022	30	14394	14381	13497	33969	33692	277
BAKKEN	5-2022	26	13156	13176	11092	29424	29424	0
BAKKEN	4-2022	27	12824	12806	9055	28234	27773	461
BAKKEN	3-2022	31	14553	14588	9500	25768	25538	230
BAKKEN	2-2022	28	22631	22582	15624	36443	35847	596
BAKKEN	1-2022	29	17106	17130	13163	38068	35459	2609
BAKKEN	12-2021	27	22768	22809	13510	34807	33021	1786
BAKKEN	11-2021	30	38405	38421	27608	60480	58066	2414
BAKKEN	10-2021	31	50594	50530	40471	52343	50721	1622
BAKKEN	9-2021	18	6601	6540	4282	8991	8625	366

From Christmas Sunday -- Focus On Fracking -- December 25, 2022

My apologies to "Focus on Fracking" for the delay in getting this posted. 

Link here.

And always the most fun:

So, based on that reported & estimated data, the crude oil figures from the EIA for the week ending December 16th appears to indicate that our total working supply of oil from net imports, from oilfield production, and from storage was 1,054,000 barrels per day less than what our oil refineries reported they used during the week.

To account for that ​obvious ​disparity between the apparent supply of oil and the apparent disposition of it, the EIA just inserted a (+1,054,000) barrel per day figure onto line 13 of the weekly U.S. Petroleum Balance Sheet in order to make the reported data for the daily supply of oil and for the consumption of it balance out, a fudge factor that they label in their footnotes as “unaccounted for crude oil”, thus suggesting there must have been an omission or error of that magnitude in this week’s oil supply & demand figures that we have just transcribed.

Moreover, since last week’s  “unaccounted for crude oil” was at a record (+2,259,000) barrels per day, that means there was a 1,204,000 barrel per day difference between this week's balance sheet error and the EIA's crude oil balance sheet error from a week ago, and hence the changes to supply and demand from that week to this one that are indicated by this week's report are off by that much, thus rendering those comparisons virtually meaningless....​​

However, since most everyone treats these weekly EIA reports as gospel, and since these weekly figures often drive oil pricing, and hence decisions to drill or complete oil wells, we’ll continue to report this data just as it's published, and just as it's watched & believed to be reasonably accurate by most everyone in the industry...(for more on how this weekly oil data is gathered, and the possible reasons for that “unaccounted for” oil, see this EIA explainer) ...

Again, It's Southwest Airlines -- December 28, 2022

From October 10, 2022: link here.

Now, over Christmas, 2022: link here.

Grayson Mill With Three New Permits For Charles Wells On Northwest Side Of Williston -- December 28, 2022

State income taxes, link here:

*************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 45.

WTI: $78.96.

Natural gas: $4.709.

Three new permits, #39531 - #39533, inclusive:

• Operator: Grayson Mill
• Field: Todd (Williams)
• Comments:
• Grayson Mill has permits for three Charles wells, lot 4 section 3-154-101, 
• to be sited between 211 FNL and 271 FNL and at 685 FWL

Russian Urals -- Update -- December 28, 2022

Russia - Ukraine.

Corroborates my thesis that Russia will have trouble replacing European buyers (previously posted).

The "Urals" for Russia is similar to the "WTI" for the US.

Link here.

 It may be a record but it won't come close to replacing its EU customers. Link here.

Energy Shareholder Returns Hit Record Levels -- RBN Energy -- December 28, 2022

SRE: link here; and, here; press release;

• Germany's RWE will buy 2.25 million tons / year from Sempra's proposed Port Arthur plant, Texas, for 15 years
• US LNG export projects have made over 20 supply deals since June

ICYMI: MRO expands south Texas position with $3 billion-Ensign buy;
link here; Eagle Ford;

Marathon, which reported a jump in third quarter profit on Wednesday, said the Ensign acquisition would be immediately accretive to the company's financials, including boosting its projected free cash flow in 2023 by 15%. The company expects to raise its base dividend by an additional 11% after closing the purchase, which is expected by the end of this year.

****************************
Back to the Bakken

The Far Side: link here.

Active rigs: 45.

WTI:

Natural gas:

Thursday, December 29, 2022:
38956, conf, Ovintiv, Anderson Federal 152-96-9-4-13H,
38199, conf, Hess, EN-Rehak A-155-94-1423H-4,
37641, conf, Slawson, Genekat Federal 4-13-12TFH,

Wednesday, December 28, 2022: 72 for the month, 181 for the quarter, 726 for the year.
38954, conf, Ovintiv, Anderson Federal 152-96-9-4-5H,
37640, conf, Slawson, Genesis Federal 1 SLH, 

RBN Energy: shareholder returns reach record levels in 3Q22 as E&Ps cash generation remains strong.  Archived.

One of life’s vicarious pleasures is indulging in some daydreaming about what we’d do with a substantial financial windfall, maybe from a lottery win, a bequest from a long-lost relative, or a five-horse parlay. Thanks to a dramatic surge in post-pandemic commodity prices, U.S. E&Ps are living out that dream as 2022 cash flow from operating activities (CFOA) is on track to quadruple from 2020 lows and more than double from pre-pandemic levels. In allocating those funds, producers face the same kinds of decisions we would all face: ramping up current spending, whittling away at debt, tucking cash away for a rainy day, or distributing funds to family and friends. Possibly influenced by the upcoming holiday season, oil and gas producers turned extremely generous in the third quarter as shareholder returns reached record levels. In today’s RBN blog, we detail the cash-flow allocations made by the 42 publicly owned E&Ps we follow and speculate on future trends.

Let’s take a quick look at the largesse. The cash flowing into the coffers of the companies we track is on pace to exceed $160 billion, or $45 per barrel of oil equivalent (boe) produced, this year. CFOA hasn’t exceeded $25/boe since 2014, when oil prices last topped $100/bbl. The estimated 2022 result is 25% higher than the $36/boe generated in 2014, 4x the $11/boe reported in 2020, and 125% more than the $20/boe in 2021. Most impressively, the total cash generated this year is estimated to be $15 billion higher than the total net debt of the 42 producers we track.