Norway -- January 12, 2019

Earlier this week I posted:

Could this be adding to the bullish trend for oil? Link here to the Bloomberg story.

Norway’s oil regulator reduced its forecast for production this year, predicting crude output could drop to the lowest in three decades before recovering in 2020.

Oil output of 82.2 million cubic meters, or 1.42 million barrels a day, would be the lowest since 1988.

The forecast compares to actual production of 86.2 million last year, and is down from an earlier estimate of 87.2 million.

Oil output was affected by new developments becoming more complex than anticipated and that fewer than expected wells have been drilled.

Delays and issues on new projects in 2018 would continue to affect output this year, forcing a reduction in the production forecast.

Doesn't amount to a hill of beans in the big scheme of things, but it is what it is.  

Back on March 31, 2016, I noted that Norway was going to have some problems.

This is the banner headline over at oilprice. Nothing new, but it does get your attention:

I still don't think it amounts to a hill of beans in the big scheme of things -- as far as global supply goes -- but it is a big story for Norway. Which will last about ... oh, maybe 12 months. LOL.

I could care / couldn't care less about the subject matter, but I am really, really impressed with the quality of this photograph taken with an old model iPhone by four-year-old granddaughter, Sophia:

This Is What The Bakken Is All About -- January 12, 0219

The well:

• 23993, 3,888, Equinor/Statoil/BEXP, Johnston 7-6 7H, Banks, t10/13; cum 460K 11/18; erratic production profile; inactive; back on status 2/17; full production profile here;

According to FracFocus this well has not been re-fracked, but the numbers suggest it must have been. In addition, the NDIC has no sundry forms suggesting this well was re-fracked. It's last sundry form was dated September 26, 2018, to change the operator name from Statoil to Equinor. The last sundry form before that was dated February 7, 2013. Whether it was re-fracked or not (and it appears not to have been re-fracked) doesn't matter to those with minerals in this well -- I doubt most care what caused the jump in production.

Selected production profile:

BAKKEN	1-2018	31	10353	10272	10786	34768	34725	43
BAKKEN	12-2017	31	11432	11348	12589	44879	44785	94
BAKKEN	11-2017	23	10632	10894	12026	32723	28335	4386
BAKKEN	10-2017	23	10190	10277	7801	26069	23456	2597
BAKKEN	9-2017	30	14494	14478	7011	39146	38260	856
BAKKEN	8-2017	31	19815	19587	9791	48572	37773	10783
BAKKEN	7-2017	23	11525	11396	9564	24432	23216	1196
BAKKEN	6-2017	27	17931	17568	12396	39472	37228	2233
BAKKEN	5-2017	1	20	160	0	29	27	2
BAKKEN	4-2017	28	19464	20104	13030	41440	35437	5974
BAKKEN	3-2017	31	25498	24873	14751	49726	46412	3283
BAKKEN	2-2017	19	3028	2866	1581	28130	27598	513
BAKKEN	1-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2016	0	0	3	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2016	30	37	60	354	92	78	0
BAKKEN	10-2016	7	604	578	2806	6797	6193	601
BAKKEN	9-2016	0	0	7	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2016	3	89	82	723	202	127	73
BAKKEN	7-2016	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2016	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2016	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2016	1	39	38	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2016	0	0	125	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2016	9	1539	1637	733	5349	4875	468
BAKKEN	1-2016	22	5241	5074	2311	14878	10666	4202
BAKKEN	12-2015	19	2117	2253	1674	14390	14370	2

Far Beyond The Sun, Yngwie Malmsteen

This Is What The Bakken Is All About -- January 12, 2019

The well:

• 23992, 5,417, Statoil, Beaux 18-19 7H, Banks, t8/13; cum 397K 11/18; erratic; went IA 12/16; back on line 8/17;

Full profile here. 

Not re-fracked. Selected production profile here, for newbies, note that this well went from 500 bbls/month to over 16,000 bbls/month:

BAKKEN	4-2018	30	8864	8757	8196	27880	27763	0
BAKKEN	3-2018	30	9021	8854	6766	20972	20913	38
BAKKEN	2-2018	28	8144	8439	5892	19048	18436	584
BAKKEN	1-2018	31	13012	13106	10425	29350	29113	206
BAKKEN	12-2017	31	15075	14983	7872	32181	30943	1207
BAKKEN	11-2017	30	16792	17095	8902	35704	32146	3528
BAKKEN	10-2017	12	6296	5449	5847	10651	9584	1061
BAKKEN	9-2017	0	0	220	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2017	31	873	892	1105	1112	1095	17
BAKKEN	7-2017	1	239	0	44	213	175	38
BAKKEN	6-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2017	0	0	96	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2016	4	1199	1445	2794	3322	3320	0
BAKKEN	11-2016	30	538	343	7549	1096	1096	0
BAKKEN	10-2016	31	607	521	3436	14	14	0
BAKKEN	9-2016	30	338	371	4004	389	389	0

Nothing Special About This Well -- Surrounded By Lots Of Activity Over The Years -- WPX, Elk, #18794

It's hard to believe that I noted that this was a well to watch back in 2009. 

The well:

• 18794, 262, WPX, Elk 16-21H, Van Hook, t5/11; cum 640K 11/18; I did not check but unlikely that this well has been re-fracked; full production here; 
• crude oil: 639,921
• mcf: 398,155 mcf = 66,348 boe
• total: 706,269 boe

Selected production profile:

BAKKEN	4-2014	30	7755	7993	3208	5785	4299	1134
BAKKEN	3-2014	31	7992	7535	3760	5509	4584	548
BAKKEN	2-2014	28	5501	5436	3268	4121	3334	450
BAKKEN	1-2014	31	8198	8088	5677	5574	4577	635
BAKKEN	12-2013	31	8106	7820	5549	5279	3481	1536
BAKKEN	11-2013	30	10829	10764	8765	7659	1390	6186
BAKKEN	10-2013	31	5728	6276	1432	3868	3165	455
BAKKEN	9-2013	30	7579	7397	1738	4764	3625	806
BAKKEN	8-2013	31	8509	8456	2144	5066	4753	0
BAKKEN	7-2013	31	7806	8014	1862	4860	4478	0
BAKKEN	6-2013	30	7338	7197	2270	4741	4381	0
BAKKEN	5-2013	31	8103	8213	3160	4699	4331	0
BAKKEN	4-2013	25	3721	3288	3535	735	651	0
BAKKEN	3-2013	31	5832	5961	1247	3265	3042	0

A Huge QEP Tipi V Well -- January 12, 2019

Wow, it never quits.

Look at this QEP Tipi V wells.

This post will not be updated. The QEP Tipi V wells are tracked here.

The well:

• 32497, 4,780, QEP, Tipi V 13-12-7-18LL, Spotted Horn, t6/18; cum 205K 11/18; 

Full production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	11-2018	30	18086	18066	9360	27717	25899	1070
BAKKEN	10-2018	31	22880	22828	11056	37008	32985	3170
BAKKEN	9-2018	30	22033	22043	15206	35260	31491	3095
BAKKEN	8-2018	28	31203	31642	23707	55348	50267	4395
BAKKEN	7-2018	31	52620	52528	33368	82683	73534	8434
BAKKEN	6-2018	28	58355	57817	34974	81596	52053	29163
BAKKEN	5-2018	2	0	0	39	1292	1005	260
BAKKEN	4-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

• 32492, PNC, QEP, Tipi V 2-13-12T2H,
• 32493, PNC, QEP, Tipi V 2-13-12BH,
• 32494, 722, QEP, Tipi V 1-13-12TH, Spotted Horn, t6/18; cum --
• 32495, 2,599, QEP, Tipi V 1-13-12BH, Spotted Horn, t6/18; cum --
• 32496, 1,755, QEP, Tipi V 1-13-12T2H, Spotted Horn, t6/18; cum --

North Dakota Loess As A Potential Microproppant -- January 12, 2019

This link will probably load as a pdf on your desktop.

Loess: rhymes with "bus."

Where "small sand" might be too big for use as a proppant in some areas of the Bakken, perhaps a microproppant like loess might work.

From the linked article:

Some proppant manufacturers have introduced new microproppants with grain sizes equivalent to that of a human hair and with the consistency of rock flour.

Sediment particle sizes in this range fall into the silt size category, which is generally defined as sedimentary particles sized between 0.0625 to 0.0039 millimeters.

Silt is very common throughout the sedimentary surface geology of North Dakota and may be found as a component of all of the surficially exposed materials across the state including the glacial sediments found across most of North Dakota, within the individual sedimentary siltstone bedrock layers in southwestern North Dakota, or when transported and deposited by the wind as loess deposits, which can be found in varying thickness across the entire state.

Wow, think about that. 0.0039 mm. Take out a standard ruler and note how "thick" one millimeter is. Not divide that into "10-thousandths." That's incredibly fine sand. 

Right now, the natural sand being used is:

• 100-mesh
• small
• medium
• large 

From this site:

This may load as a pdf on your desktop, 100 mesh.

Mesh size at this link:

Random Update Of An Equinor Skarston Well In Banks Oil Field -- January 12, 2019

Full production profile at this post.

As of 11/18, this well was not re-fracked according to FracFocus. This well is a singleton just north of an 8-well Skarston pad.

The well:

• 21644, 3,235, Equinor, Skarston1-12 1H, Banks, t9/12; cum 321K 11/18;

Selected production profile:

BAKKEN	7-2018	31	5390	5363	3785	7376	6699	178
BAKKEN	6-2018	30	6500	6409	4405	9066	8458	76
BAKKEN	5-2018	28	4677	4796	3946	4067	3767	36
BAKKEN	4-2018	20	5364	5069	3288	6761	6097	317
BAKKEN	3-2018	0	0	826	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2018	24	10166	9700	6947	34257	30803	2037
BAKKEN	1-2018	19	9515	9597	5785	29831	27398	1064
BAKKEN	12-2017	31	22251	22393	10963	53722	45811	6096
BAKKEN	11-2017	18	9725	9141	4571	17537	15886	1025
BAKKEN	10-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

BAKKEN	11-2014	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2014	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2014	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2014	18	2288	3137	930	9093	9027	66
BAKKEN	7-2014	31	5620	5322	1987	17423	15426	1997
BAKKEN	6-2014	30	4796	4417	2017	17602	15872	1730
BAKKEN	5-2014	31	5896	6560	2407	20696	16919	3777
BAKKEN	4-2014	30	5473	4892	2533	19218	11860	7358

Wasn't Nabors A High-Flyer Last Year? -- January 12, 2019

I don't know. I'm not following the market.

From Bloomberg via Rigzone:

One of the oil industry's highest-paid executives is taking a pay cut as his company braces for possibly difficult times ahead after its stock plunged last year.

Nabors Industries Ltd. Chief Executive Officer Anthony Petrello agreed to forfeit $4 million in restricted stock , in exchange for a symbolic award worth $1,500.

The CEO’s salary is also dropping 10 percent this year to $1.58 million.

Shares of Nabors, the world’s largest owner of onshore drilling rigs, tumbled 71 percent last year, the third-worst performance in the 15-company Philadelphia Oil Services Index. The firm is more exposed than rivals to international markets, which have lagged behind the U.S. in recovering from the worst crude crash in a generation four years ago.

“It’s just recognizing we could be in for a rough patch, we may have to take some actions to tighten the belt, and the first belt we’re going to tighten is on the executive officers,” said Nabors spokesman Dennis Smith. “The top guy shouldn’t be immune.”

The recent announcement by Saudi Arabia to curtail output in light of lower oil prices could dampen activity for companies working there, including Nabors.

It’s unclear if the pay cuts will be enough to satisfy investors. The stock is down about 86 percent since Petrello, 64, became CEO in October 2011, far worse than drillers Patterson-UTI Energy Inc. and Helmerich & Payne Inc. Over that period, he’s taken home $133.6 million, counting cash compensation, perks, vested stock awards and exercised options. That’s more than double what the two rivals paid its top leaders.

Investors have voiced discontent with the firm’s pay practices and governance. Since 2011, Nabors has received 42 percent support on average in its annual advisory vote on executive compensation, and shareholders have repeatedly withheld votes for directors. Support levels on pay below 80 percent are rare at publicly traded U.S. firms.

I assume investors can always invest elsewhere.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, travel, financial, job, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here.

T+67 -- January 12, 2019 -- Megyn Walks Away With Full $69 Million

For a mix of some great wildlife photography in New Mexico and global warming politics, this is a nice site to visit today:

• sunset on the desert
• saving the critical South Boulder Wetlands
• debunking the debunker
• watching the Arctic Sea ice scam unravel

******************************************

Nice Work If You Can Get It

From GQ:

Anyway, the joke is still on NBC because the network has paid out the remaining half of Kelly's contract, meaning she's walked away with a total of $69 million for her year and a half of work.

She needs to send a "thank you" letter to President Trump. 

******************************

I Want Megyn's Job When I Grow Up

Week 2: January 6, 2019 -- January 12, 2019

The biggest story last week, of course, was all the attention the media gave the "partial shutdown of the US government." Had it not been reported, the "partial shutdown" would not have been noticed by most Americans. Some "not-ready-for-prime-time" observations at this post.

The biggest sports story last week: NDSU wins its 7th FCS championship. 

The most under-reported international story last week: the fuel shortage in Mexico. 

The biggest energy story, of course, was the "return of the bull market for oil" -- although it could be short-lived. But, in round numbers, WTI went from $45 to $52 in the space of a week or thereabouts. That may not be entirely accurate but that was my "feeling."

The biggest energy story in the Bakken was the huge wells that are now being reported. They are truly, truly huge. If there is any doubt, look at "record IPs in the Bakken," and scroll up from the bottom. In 2012, wells like this one were rare:

Whiting said this was a record TFS well at the time, early 2012, file #20526, Smith 34-12TFH, 2,446, 102K in first 4.5 months.

Now? That is so hum-drum.

Most recently:

• January 11, 2019
• 31774, 5,058, Bruin, Fort Berthold 151-94-26B-35-15H, 4 sections, 55 stages; 14.4 million lbs, Antelope-Sanish; a staggering well; t7/18; cum 294K 11/18;
• January 6, 2019
• 31774, conf, Bruin, Fort Berthold 151-94-26B-35-15H, Antelope-Sanish; a staggering well;
• January 4, 2019
• 34668, 6,640, MRO, Drake 44-16H, Jim Creek, t11/18; cum 41K over 20 days which extrapolates to 62K over 30 days; #17999; #17374;
• 34666, 6,012, MRO, Northrop 34-16H, Jim Creek, t11/18; cum 34K over 23 days;
  #17999; #17374;
• 34892, 5,851, MRO, Gloria 24-16H, Jim Creek, t10/18; cum 57K over 38 days; #17999; #17374;
• 34667, 5,713, MRO, Veddy 44-16H, Jim Creek, t10/18; cum 90K over 38 days --

Geoff Simon's top North Dakota energy stories:

• Watford City approves school bond issue
• Williston, in Williams County, the wealthiest county in North Dakota, failed to approve the school bond issue -- so  much for "good neighbor attitude" in Williston
• North Dakota legislature considering raising speed limits: to 80 mph on interstates; 75 mph on other divided highways, in line with states like Texas
• Legacy Fund: ‘Numbers game’ is about more than money -- Crosby Journal 
• Lawmakers set early revenue figures: Lower oil, gas tax -- Fargo Forum
• Judge endorses water permit for Davis Refinery despite opposition -- Associated Press
• Regulators: Dakota Access company complied with settlement -- Associated Press
• Two years after Standing Rock encampment, scars of the protest remain -- Inside Sources

Bakken operations
Random update of the MRO Arkin well; low volume proppant
A Bruin Fort Berhold well that produced 350K boe in less than five months
MRO and Bruin are competing for bragging rights
EOG reports three huge Clarks Creek wells

Fracking
Antelope-Sanish will be a great field for re-fracks
Whitting: Generation 4.0 fracking completions
Fracking: completion strategies

Bakken economy
Williams County: wealthiest county in North Dakota; but Williston won't approve school bond issue