Friday, March 25, 2022

Change Of Heart -- FERC Reverses "Green" Policies -- Will Now Approve Pipelines --- March 25, 2022

Updates

March 27, 2022a reader notes that this story is being reported absolutely nowhere --

Just checked the Earth Justice website and they still don’t mention the new policy 😎. 
Methinks they’ve been blindsided. 
Manchin is Chairman of Energy. I’m seeing a seismic shift. Bakken blinder disclaimer applies. 

Original Post

A reader suggested this two-word subject heading: FERC Greta. I wish I had thought of that.


Link here. Very confusing, I don't understand the changes yet, but it sounds good for now. I can't wait to hear the White House explanation why the Keystone XL is now not only necessary but environmentally safe. Rumors are they are going to rename the Keystone XL pipeline the Greta Turnberg Memorial Pipeline to expedite the approval process. 

But meanwhile, back to the linked story:

The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission has rolled back sweeping new policies for large natural gas projects, including a framework for assessing how pipelines and other facilities contribute to climate change, weeks after prominent lawmakers panned the changes.

In a decision issued unanimously at the commission’s monthly meeting yesterday, FERC will revert back to its long-standing method for reviewing natural gas pipeline applications — while opening changes announced in February to feedback rather than applying them.

The commission also signed off on three new natural gas pipelines, one of which will pump more natural gas into New York state in a project described by utilities as essential for reliable gas service. immediately.

Three words in close proximity that warm the cockles of my heart: pipelines ... pump .. immediately.

NCAA Basketball March Madness: St Peter's Peacocks Poked Purdue -- March 25, 2022

Final:

  • #15 St Peter's Peacocks: 67
  • #3 Purdue: 64

First time ever that a #15 team moves to Elite 8.  

Meanwhile, on another note: a full stadium, Kansas vs Providence, no one wearing masks, except one lone person on the floor -- one of the coaches? But one person in an entire stadium, standing room only for an NCAA tournament March Madness game, is wearing a mask. When will the madness end? The officials aren't even wearing masks.

Week 12: March 20, 2022 -- March 26, 2022

Top story of the week:

Top international non-energy story:

  • Ukraine-Russia war continues.

Top international energy story:

Top national non-energy story:

Top national energy story:

Top North Dakota non-energy story:

Top North Dakota energy story:

Geoff Simon's top North Dakota energy stories:

Operators;

Operations:

Wells:

Fracking:

Pipelines:

Bakken economy:

Commentary:

Four New Permits; Six Permits Renewed; WTI Closes At $114 For The Week -- March 25, 2022

Active rigs:

$113.9
3/25/202203/25/202103/25/202003/25/201903/25/2018
Active Rigs3514506860

Four new permits, #38849 - #38852, inclusive:
  • Operators: Crescent Point Energy (3); Ovintiv
  • Fields: Ellisville (Williams County); Winner (Williams County); Siverston (McKenzie)
  • Comments:
    • Crescent Point has permits for three wells in NWNE 13-158-100; 
    • to be sited 250 FNL and and between 1560 FEL and 1610 FEL;
Six permits renewed:
  • BR: three CCU Badger permits and three Gorhman permits, three middle Bakken and three Three Forks permits; all in Dunn County

Quick! Who Is America's Richest Energy Billionaire? March 25, 2022

Quick! Who is America's richest energy billionaire?

I bet you can't guess but when you see the answer, you will say, well, of course. LOL. Think Steve Jobs. 

The list has five.

I don't want to rain on Alex Kimani's parade, but I think he is wrong. I think there is another energy billionaire worth more than #1 on Kimani's list. And I just checked: "my" #1 energy billionaire has a net worth six times that of the individual at the top of Kimani's list. 

But my #1 energy billionaire would be at the top of any number of billionaire lists.

Wow, this list connects a lot of dots and answers a lot of questions I've had over the years.

Best connection for me: Kaiser-Francis Oil Company. 

It's interesting to speculate how Kaiser-Francis almost had it all.

It's also interesting who is not on the list. I'm thinking of one in particular.

There's a lot of fun in this article:

"Due to a temporary repeal of the estate tax law for the year 2020, this woman became, along with her brother, the first American billionaire to pay no estate tax since its enactment."

I vividly remember this -- thinking all the great murder mysteries that could have been written with this theme -- how the multi-billionaire patriarch or matriarch met his/her demise in 2020 despite being in superb physical and mental health.

Wow, you have to love this country. If you can't laugh at that, you have no sense of humor, no sense of irony. A woman billionaire, through a quirk of US Congress, becomes the first woman billionaire to pay no estate tax since its enactment. You kind of wonder who in Congress sponsored this act? LOL. Whose mother or father died that year and had a daughter or son in Congress?

That alone puts this woman in the pantheon of legends in their own lifetime. LOL. I have held stock in her company for a long, long time.

One company recently awarded all of its 1,380 employees a $100,000 Christmas bonus.

Even Warren Buffett, to the best of my knowledge, has never rewarded his secretary so generously.

The guy or gal at the top saw his/her net worth jump 41% in the past three months. 

**************************
The Music Page: The Summer of 1969

Summer of '69, Bryan Adams.

Pretty amazing that he picked the summer of '69.

My Favorite Chart -- Money Market Monitor -- March 25, 2022

Before we get to the charts, being reported today: Vanguard reclaims top target-date fund manager spot, leapfrogs Fidelity and BlackRock. Link here.

  • TDFs; target-date funds.
  • personally, I would never invest in a TDF

There's a lot of money out there:

  • ThomasPartners recently partnered with Schwab
  • outside of Schwab, to qualify for a ThomasPartners dividend fund, one had to invest one million dollars.
  • inside Schwab, one can qualify for a ThomasParners dividend fund for $100,000
  • I can't see doing that, even with $100,000

Estate planning: there is still one opportunity to maximize capital gains tax free

  • one has one opportunity
  • the window of opportunity is less than a year

************************
The Charts

Link here.

Another favorite graph (down below). Take some time with this one. Note how few countries are actually “spelled out.”

At 24%, the US is five times greater than #2, Japan at 5%. And Japan is the poster-child for no-growth but known for great sushi. Also known for placing nuclear reactors on fault lines. 

  • among the free:
    • after Japan, it's just one big drop off the cliff:
    • Germany: 4%, much of which will now be spent on Ukrainian refugees;
    • only two at 3%: UK and France
    • at 2%: Italy, Canada, Australia, Spain, South Korea, and Brazil
  • among the "not free":
    • China: 18% -- again, this is the share of global GDP by country
    • China may overtake the US, but probably won't move into the "blue" column
    • one at 2%: Russia -- which is now out of date; tea leaves suggest Russia's GDP has been cut in half, and, if so, Russia is at 1% -- less than most countries in western Europe, even Italy;
    • at 1%: Iran:

The Energy Transition Is Dead -- EVs Not For Me -- For Investors, Margins Simply Not There

Locator: 10055DEAD.

" The Energy Transition Is Dead" will be tracked here. First post, March, 2022.

The corollary (?) or at least being reported at the same time, "Globalization Is Dead," will also be tracked here (at least for now). 

At some point in the future, I will post an "original" narrative, but for now, to save time, just the links and some minor points.

Because some politicians are trying to re-write history, we're losing sight of a very, very important data point.

Biden, et al, are trying to tell us that the inflation we are seeing is due to Russia invading Ukraine; in fact that inflation began well before the war; but it's a meme that is easily sold to the vast majority of Americans, educated or not, Republican or Democrat, does not matter.

The most important data point that all of us seem to be forgetting is that the EU energy crisis began well before the Russian-Ukraine invasion. But it's obvious that folks will forget that and put all the blame for the EU energy crisis on the Russian invasion. 

This EU energy crisis was the wake-up call that the energy transition was dead. I missed it. Many others missed it. But now, with the sanctions on Russia, we see that the energy transition is dead. The one article that cemented it for me? The EU won't ban buying coal from Russia, in effect, continuing to financially support the Russian invasion of Ukraine. 

*****************************
The Energy Transition Is Dead

Link here. "The energy transition is dead. We just haven't realized it yet." -- Peter Zeihan

Not enough land:

  • The link has long been lost / broken, but XOM provided a very, very excellent analysis about ten years ago when I first started blogging, saying the very same thing: link here

****************************
EVs

October 2, 2023: Ford's CATL debacle. Link here.

September 8, 2023: energy transition is dead. Update here.

February 24, 2023: Sono Motors calls it quits.

November 15, 2022: group-think.

May 20, 2022: EU to use coal a lot longer than expected now that they're cutting off Russian natural gas.

May 20, 2022: if recession lasts eighteen to twenty-four months, some EV manufacturers may not be around in 2024. Link here

May 5, 2022: the Biden administration admits that energy transition is going to take a lot longer than envisioned. Maybe "energy transition" is already dead. Link here.

April 27, 2022: moving on from oil, Peter Zeihan

April 16, 2022: Jeep will fund EVs yet to be produced with profits from large SUVs.

March 29, 2022: US EPA -- greater oil production is compatible with energy transition [if it means I'm more likely to keep my job after the mid-term elections.]

March 27, 2022: New Yorkers experience sticker shock

March 26, 2022: how bad is the "rare earth metals" shortage? Bezos and Gates are "buying" Greenland to mine critical materials used in electric vehicles. When Trump suggested this, he was laughed off the stage.

March 26, 2022: Coal: we can't live without it. The EU will support Russia's invasion by continuing to purchase coal from Russia.

March 25, 2022: GM to halt pickup truck production in Indiana due to chip shortage.

March 25, 2022: from my favorite contributor over at oilprice.com: lithium price surge jeopardizes energy transition efforts.

March 22, 2022: if Europe has focused on nuclear and fossil fuel, they wouldn't be in the box they are in now.

The Sports Page -- March 25, 2022

Holy mackerel: NCAA men's March Madness:

  • Gonzaga (#1) knocked off by #4 Arkansas -- 74 - 68, are you kidding me?
  • Arizona (#1) knocked off by #5 Houston -- 72 - 60, are you kidding me?
    • Houston took out Illinois earlier; 
    • this should end the Houston-Illinois controversy
  • Duke (#2) hangs on; 78 - 73, over Texas Tech (#3)

Elite Eight:

  • Houston vs Villanova
  • Kansas vs Miami (FL)
  • Arkansas vs Duke
  • St Peter's vs UNC: later, holy mackerel! St Peter's Peacocks defeats Purdue, 67 - 64.
    • first time in NCAA tournament history, a #15 team makes it to the Elite Eight.

Texas high school girls soccer, state championship tournament

  • granddaughter Olivia's team won last night in the first round, beating opponent 8 - 0

A Closer Look At The Petroshale Lewis Federal Well Coming Off Confidential List Today -- March 25, 2022

**********************************
Petroshale -- Bear Den -- Lewis Federal

The well:

  • 36890, conf, Petroshale, Lewis Federal 2MBH, Bear Den, producing.
  • 4,623 bbls over five days extrapolates to 28K bbls crude oil over 30 days;
  • a short lateral, TD: 16,610 feet
  • frack: stimulated, 12/21; only 24 stages; 110K bbls (4.6 million gallons of water); 5.4 million lbs proppant;  
  • four wells on this pad;
  • all four will run directly east to west, see graphic below
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN1-20225462345462805613506135
BAKKEN12-20216431642053440489204892

Interestingly enough, there is an old horizontal well that targeted the Madison formation in this drilling. unit; drilled years ago, is now plugged and abandoned, #16466, drilled back in 2007; cum 271K 6/16;

The graphic:

*********************
The Cracker Page

Best ever. 

The Political (?) Page -- March 25, 2022

First things first: Singapore lifts Covid-19 restrictions.

Now back to common sense.

Common Sense weighed in on "what is a woman?" LOL.

I agree completely. In today's environment, if I were a practicing physician, I would not be able to answer the question as asked by the US Senator. I remember, decades ago, during training, almost my first week in my pediatric internship, I saw a teenage girl brought in by her mother for long forgotten reasons (forgotten by me, not the mother).

Within five minutes a possible diagnosis was made and later confirmed with genetic testing.  The patient had been raised as a girl -- "she" had all the outward appearances of a female but genetic testing confirmed "she" was a "boy" by "the standard definition at that time. Genetic testing revealed an XY genome, but the individual had a dysfunctioning/non-functioning "Y" chromosome. The individual was raised as a female but genetically was a male. "Her" birth certificate identified her as a "female birth." See Swyer syndrome.

If a practicing physician could not have answered that question as asked, under those conditions, there's no way a lawyer could have answered that question. The nominee answered that question well, but not perfectly. But had she answered perfectly she might have doomed any chance of being confirmed.

I have suggested on the blog -- at least once -- that the NCAA and the IOCC better come up with a definition "of a woman" very, very quickly or "woke" politics is going to undo, overnight, twenty years of progress for women under Title IX

The bill was passed in 1972 but it took a couple of decades for women to "grow into it." We are now seeing the positive results of that law. But if the NCAA and IOCC don't figure this out quickly, it's going to be all undone.  

******************************
Is This The Craziest Market Or What?

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here

The Fed raises rates for the first time in a decade (needs to be fact-checked). From zero to 0.25%.

The Fed sounded relatively dovish with the first rate increase, but now sounds absolutely hawkish.

There's a regional war involving a nuclear power led by a madman that could end up being a world war.

Politically and economically it's already a world war. All we need is for a few stray missiles to land in Poland.

There is no charismatic leader on the world stage right now. By some standards, the strongest nation on earth (militarily and economically, if not politically) has perhaps one of the least best choices for president (and vice president, for that matter). [But nothing is so bad that things can't get worse.]

Crude oil is surging.

We're coming out of a pandemic but now we're hearing rumors BA.2 is lurking. Omicron was "badass #1" (or BA.1). Son of Omicron is simply referred to as "badass #2," the sequel.

One googles: how soon after the first rate do we experience a recession and this is what we get:

A rate hike will come and the bull market will stumble, bond yields will climb and the economy will slip into a recession. 
This we know. [What a bunch of malarkey.]
What we don’t know is how long all of that will take and how long it will last. For the economy specifically, history offers little guide about timing. A recession has come as quickly as 11 months after the first rate hike and as long as 86 months. 

Not.

And, oh by the way, connecting dots separated by 86 months (seven years) seems to be a stretch. 

This time, the Fed tiptoed into the water, raising the rate 25 basis points (yawn). And then announced it could do something almost unprecedented -- raise the rate by 50 basis points two months in a row. 

And what does the market do? The Dow surges and the price of oil falls. LOL.

[Historically, we have at least eleven months and perhaps as long as seven years to wait for the recession.]

To make it even scarier, I read somewhere that Jim Cramer doesn't call it a "50-basis-point" increase in the Fed rate, he calls it a "double rate hike." I guess that's not new; I don't know. But CNBC says a 50-basis-point rate is a "double rate hike." 

Release the kraken.

Let's make it a triple rate hike, or heaven forbid, a quadruple rate hike.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here

And to make it really, really scary, announce the quadruple rate hike on a triple witching date

The next triple witching date is June 17, 2022. 

And here we are, the market, on a Friday no less when we have no idea what a weekend will bring is surging again.

FOMO, YOLO, TGIF.

BRK-B:

  • up $4.11 in early morning trading.
  • three months ago, BRK-B was trading at $300, almost on the dot, as they say;
  • today, BRK-B is trading at $356
  • let's see, 356 - 300  / 300 * 4 = 75% appreciation annualized; 
    • for a value stock that isn't suppose to move?
    • or another way, 356 - 300 / 300 = almost 20%
    • three more months: 1.18 * 356 =  $420
    • three more months: 1.18 *420 = $496
    • three more months, one year later: 
    • $585
  • I don't even want to consider AAPL

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here

Doomsday Clocks -- A Suggestion -- March 25, 2022

I can't think of many things worse than Kamala Harris moving into the Oval Office. That can be said for almost any vice president in recent memory, starting with Dan Quale.

Biden is -- how old is he now? Biden is -- well, I guess it doesn't matter how old he is -- it's how well an old body and an old mind will stand up to mental pressures of an impending world war, and the physical pressures of flying halfway around the world to attend "conferences."

The physical demands have to be overwhelming ...

Remember those doomsday clocks in which the minute hand was moved one or two minutes forward or backwards ever time there was a major geopolitical event? 

I think the US needs a new doomsday clock -- one in which it shows the minutes (or likelihood) that Kamala Harris will move into the Oval Office.

Speaking of clocks, it looks like some teenager choked on something from this manufacturer and won a huge legal monetary settlement:

Technology: Investors -- March 25, 2022

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.  

Disruptive:

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here

TSMC: sees demand spike for automobile chips thanks to Nvidia, Qualcomm, Intel, Tesla. 

  • orders for automotive electronics chips accelerating at a faster-than-expected pace;
  • TSMC: likely to benefit from several chip design companies;
  • it appears we add Tesla (TSLA) to the "chip design" category
  • TSMC: 90% share of the 7nm / 5nm foundry process segment
  • TSMC: largest beneficiary of IDM: integrated device manufacturers stepping up their outsourcing of automotive MCUs (microcontroller units) and other chips to pure-play foundries
  • TSMC: 70% of the total automotive chip orders placed by IDMs
  • major IDMs have outsourced 15% of their automotive chip production; the proportion is poised to grow
  • more at the link;

Apple subscription service: two links to same story from yesterday --

Pat on back, LOL: I first alerted readers to the possibility of an Apple subscription plan back in January, 2021, more than a year ago. Link here.

A bigger MacBoook Air? Link here.

Hotel rooms TVs: Apple TV+  and Philiips MediaSuite hospitality team up. Link here.

APPL: the bull case on Apple -- 70% higher from here -- Evercore ISI.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Two Wells Coming Off Confidential List -- March 25, 2022

Active rigs:

$112
3/25/202203/25/202103/25/202003/25/201903/25/2018
Active Rigs3514506860

Friday, March 25, 2022: 40 for the month, 149 for the quarter, 149 for the year

  • 38297, conf, CLR, Rolf Federal 9-17H, Brooklyn, no production data,
  • 36890, conf, Petroshale, Lewis Federal 2MBH, Bear Den, producing.

RBN Energy: changes could help boost nascent bioethylene market, part 2.

Predictions about what the energy market and the global economy might look like in the future can feel a bit like stargazing — the closer something is, the clearer it appears. But if something is really far away, even the Hubble Space Telescope won’t bring it precisely into view, especially if it’s a still-developing solar system or a distant planet. That’s pretty much where things stand with bioethylene, which could become a shooting star but might also end up as a big cloud of dust. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss the developing market for bioethylene: where it’s being made, what changes might make it more economical to produce in the U.S., and its target markets.

**********************************
Petroshale -- Bear Den -- Lewis Federal

The well:

  • 36890, conf, Petroshale, Lewis Federal 2MBH, Bear Den, producing, see this post.
  • 4,623 bbls over five days extrapolates to 28K bbls crude oil over 30 days;
  • a short lateral, TD: 16,610 feet
  • frack: stimulated, 12/21; only 24 stages; 110K bbls (4.6 million gallons of water); 5.4 million lbs proppant;  
  • four wells on this pad;
  • all four will run directly east to west, see graphic below
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN1-20225462345462805613506135
BAKKEN12-20216431642053440489204892

The graphic:

What's "Oil Doing?" March 25, 2022

I think someone else over on twitter -- a huge investor in oil -- said this -- I don't think I'm alone thinking about this: the price of oil no longer matters. Don't take that out of context.

Earlier today, I think WTI was trading for $114 but then for some reason it dropped to $111 or maybe $110 by late this afternoon. 

I see that it's back up to $112.40 around midnight tonight. 

I think a lot of us were confused, frustrated, nervous (?) when oil dropped from $114 to $110. But now it's moving back up. 

The price of oil no longer matters to me (don't take that out of context). The price of oil will be volatile but reading the tea leaves suggests that the price of oil is going to remain high (i.e., greater than $90/barrel WTI) for a sustained period of time (more than a year). I guess what I'm saying, this volatility between $90 and $120 hardly matters, does it? I suppose it matters if one is a day trader but for those with a three-year horizon or longer, these swings matter not.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Think about this. If "they" won't drill at $110, "they" certainly are not going to drill at $80. 

I get a kick out of the adage, "the cure for high price oil is high prices," suggesting that when oil gets high enough, drillers will start drilling again or folks will quit using oil and the price will come down. Googling that adage led me to this article, October 18, 2018. Re-read that article and add Russian sanctions to the mix.

Two things:

  • demand for crude oil is a lot less elastic than folks think; and,
  • the myth of spare capacity seems to be just that ... a myth.

There are rumors / whispers that US oil production is going to pick up "significantly" this spring. I'm not sure what how "significant" is defined, but the tea leaves suggest "we" -- as in globally -- are going to be very, very short in oil supply this summer. Diesel will be worse. 

Natural gas should be fine. The real test for natural gas will be next winter.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here

As noted, there are rumors / whispers that US oil production is going to pick up "significantly" this spring. I'm not sure what how "significant" is defined, but the tea leaves suggest "we" -- as in globally -- are going to be very, very short in oil supply this summer. Diesel will be worse.

There are three main suppliers -- the Russia, Saudi Arabia, and the US -- in round numbers, each producing about 10 million bopd. Sure, a lot of Russian oil will reach India and China, but it's not going to be easy. And removing one of three producers is not trivial. I get a kick out of articles about this country or that country that has some kind of problem that might result in a loss of 250,000 bopd or 500,000 bopd, or even a million bopd. But that pales in comparison to the amount that might be taken off the market due to sanctions on Russia. My understanding is that the sanctions don't really go into effect until May -- that needs to be fact-checked -- but that would make sense for any number of reasons. 

I can't wait to get up every morning just to see what "oil is doing."