A Musical Interlude -- February 4, 2026

Locator: 49917AQUARIUS. 

Link here.  

 

Hair (the musical) at wiki. 

I graduated from high school in the spring, 1969.

I began college in the fall of 1969: Augustana College, Sioux Falls, SD.

During my freshman year, fall of 1969 - spring of 1970, four close friends and two coeds drove straight through to San Diego, California, for spring break, March, 1970.

While out there, we "experienced" everything from Tijuana, Mexico, to downtown Los Angeles. 

And when I say we "experienced" everything -- I mean everything. LOL.

One of the things we experienced was seeing the musical Hair. 

At wiki. The AI summary:

Disneyland:

The four close friends were pre-med students (myself, John, Richard, and Dick). We drove out to San Diego for spring break! Somehow the two coeds found we were headed to San Diego and the two wanted to join us, one to see her family, the other to see her boyfriend. 

One of the two coeds was Mary Baldino. I was curious if I could find her on the internet. I typed in her name and Augustana College, and the first hit was of Mary Baldino! Holy mackerel. 

It was an entry by her husband. Here are the screenshots of that entry.

First entry:

 I thought that entry above might be too small to read so I zoomed in and took two screenshots:

What an incredible story. So many story lines. 

Meiko McLemore:  

The Centers For Disease Control And Prevention -- An Oxymoron -- February 4, 2026

Locator: 49916MEASLES. 

LOL. 

The perfect storm: when antivaxxers led by RFK, Jr., meet Biden's three million uninvited guests. What could possibly go wrong?  Wow, LOL. The perfect storm. 

Of course, Trump will be blamed since he was responsible for the US leaving the World Health Organization.  

Link here. This will sell a lot of newspapers. Clipboard nurses and the CDC graphics department will have a field day. They won't have any effect on the outbreak but they will certainly feel busy. 

Here's the first graphic.

CDC = Centers For Disease Control and Protection --- wow, talk about an oxymoron. Interestingly, we haven't heard a thing about this from RFK, Jr. 

By the way, what's the current US recommendation on measles vaccine? The good news: measles is still "on the list" of pediatric vaccines, but, now the bad news, the emphasis is now on "personal choice." 

That was the compromise made with RFK, Jr., to keep the vaccine on list of pediatric vaccines available in the. US.  

And if you ask a two-year-old if she wants a "shot," she will say "no." And, of course, she's on solid ground. Her parents know that if all the kids at daycare have their vaccines, she will be protected by "herd immunity."  

The history of the vaccine:

• 1963, the first iteration: I was 12
• 1968, the second and better iteration:   I was 17, getting ready to graduate from high school
• 1971: the MMR vaccine was introduction -- in my second year of college. 

It will be interesting to see if the measles vaccine (a series of two vaccinations before the age of six years of age) provides a lifetime of immunity. If so, it will be quite amazing. 

This is the CDC site for tracking measles -- a disease that was "eliminated" in the US in the year 2000.  

Chances Of A US-Pre-emptive Attack On Iran -- February 4, 2026

Locator: 49915IRAN. 

Strike one: Iran flying a drone toward a US Navy ship. Shot down by US Navy. 

Strike two: Iranian gunboats try to board US-flagged oil tanker. Failed when a US Navy destroyer arrived on scene to escort the tanker. 

Strike three: FAFO. 

All indications are this will not end well for Iran. Google Gemini:

What's polymarket have to say about a US-pre-emptive strike on Iran?

• US pre-emptive strike, short-term, days to one / two week: 30%
• US pre-emptive strike, longer-term, two to four weeks: 80%.

What's WTI have to say about a US-pre-emptive strike on Iran?

• WTI: $64.24. Down 90 cents, February 4, 2026.  

Iranians are experts (as most players in the Mideast are) at playing the long game and stalling. US SecDef is not so patient. 

My hunch: if US feels they are being played in Oman, February 6, two days from now, Friday, watch for fireworks. 

The Day The Music Died -- February 4, 2026

Locator: 49914EVS. 

Link here. 

And then BYD:

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And, Then, Of Course, There's Rivian

Link here. 

The downgrade hits Rivian stock at a vulnerable moment. The company just reported 2025 deliveries of 42,247 vehicles, down 18% from the prior year and slightly below Wall Street’s forecast.

Negotiators Say Talks To Restore ACA Subsidies Likely Dead New, Higher Health-Insurance Bills Are Kicking In For Many Households — WSJ Headline — February 3, 2026

Locator: 49913ARCHIVES.

Link here. 

Talk about a "goat rope." I don't even know how to "tag" this story. ObamaCare, I guess. 

Link here.

Talks had centered on a proposal from Sens. Bernie Moreno (R., Ohio) and Susan Collins (R., Maine) to extend a version of the enlarged Affordable Care Act subsidies for at least two years, while cutting off higher-income people from participating and eventually giving enrollees the option of putting money into health savings accounts. It also would eliminate zero-dollar premium plans. But lawmakers from both parties now say the chances of a deal have all but evaporated.

“It’s effectively over,” Moreno said Wednesday. Sen. Bill Cassidy (R., La.)—the architect of an adjacent plan—agreed. While Collins declined to be as definitive, she did say that it was “certainly difficult.”

The collapse in negotiations comes as new, higher health-insurance bills are kicking in for many households and just months after a standoff over extending the subsidies sparked the longest government shutdown in U.S. history. Now, both parties are set to head into the midterm elections with no breakthrough on healthcare coverage. 

Instead, the focus in Washington has largely turned to new restrictions of immigration enforcement officers. 

The ACA subsidies were first expanded in 2021 by Democrats during the coronavirus pandemic with no Republican support. They allowed people with incomes over 400% of the poverty line—currently $128,600 for a family of four—to receive tax credits reducing the cost of premiums. The subsidies dramatically expanded the number of people who could obtain health insurance without paying a premium. The expanded subsidies expired at the end of last year. 

Some Democrats who had been working to find a middle ground agreed that talks had collapsed over how to handle abortion coverage. 

“Hyde language was an obstacle,” said Sen. Tim Kaine (D., Va.), using the shorthand that refers to the existing ban on using federal funds for abortion, which is named after the original sponsor, former Rep. Henry Hyde (R., Ill.). “My Republican colleagues are dug in on that,” added Sen.Mark Kelly (D., Ariz.). 

My thoughts: 

I have no dog in this fight but this story has so many story lines. For the archives. Wow, the Democrats couldn’t compromise on their own bill. Simply blows me away, This is what it came down to? The Hyde amendment.

Three New Permits -- February 4, 2016

Locator: 49912B.

WTI: $63.14. 

Active rigs: 28.

Three new permits, #42690 - #42692, inclusive:

• Operators: KODA Resources (2); BR
• Fields: Fertile Valley (Divide County);  Jim Creek (Dunn County)
• Comments:
• KODA resources has permits for two Amber wells, SESE 17-160-103, 
• to be sited 606 FSL and 948 / 983 FEL;
• BR has a permit for a Foxtail well, NWNE 10-145-96, 
• to be sited 435 FNL and 2201 FWL.

AI: Productivity Gains By Senior Engineers Vs Junior Engineers -- February 4, 2026

Locator: 49911AI.

In the big scheme of things, this is absolutely useless for me as an investor, but I'm posting it for the archives ... just in case. 

From January 29, 2026 -- I caught the conversation but was unsure if it was junior or senior engineers that improved by 80%, with the other group, improving by 30%. So, I queried AI today.

AI prompt: 

• Interview on CNBC:         
• productivity increased by 30% by senior engineers;
• group of junior engineers, productivity increased by 80%

AI reply, abbreviated:

Off The Net -- Will Leave With This -- February 4, 2026

Locator: 49910BRK.

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Market Value

 *********************** 
P/Es

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Google Earnings
4Q25 -- Earnings released February 4, 2026

 

Conference call:

• Google is thrilled to have Apple us Google as its primary browser / search / AI
• Broadcom is the company that designs the TPUs for Google
• so, we have the three partners -- Google, Apple, and Broadcom.

All three are up nicely today.

 

Google's numbers today are as stunning as Apple's numbers were last week.  

 

Again, Google's numbers make MSFT's numbers just a few days ago look even worse. 

 

Again, a lot of pressure on Satya Nadella.  

 

*******************************
Amazon Earnings Tomorrow 

 

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Jargon

 

IVG vs SMH

• IVG: software
• SMH: chips (SM = semis)

Weather Update -- Dallas, TX -- February 4, 2026

Locator: 49909WEATHER.

Weather / calendar -- Dallas, TX: the Austin Armadillo did not see his shadow -- 

• today: last day of winter
• this weekend: spring
• next week: first day of summer 

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Family: Stand-up Paddleboard

Our older daughter -- mother of one college graduate (Vanderbilt), one college student (Stanford), and a middle school student (Colleyville ISD, TX).

Kiri's most recent race: Colorado River, Bastrop, TX (near Austin, TX) -- sub-freezing weather. Among women, finished second; 2+ hour race; finished four minutes behind fastest SUP woman in Texas. Serious racers from across the nation participated. In other words, she beat every other woman from across the nation in this race, coming in second to Texas' fastest woman on the stand-up paddleboard. 

EVs: The Day The Music Died -- February 4, 2026

Locator: 49908EVS.

For EVs, the day the music died:

Cramer's First Hour -- First Ten Minutes -- February 4, 2026

Locator: 49907CRAMER.

ApplePay obliterated PayPal -- and ApplePay is so superior to PayPal that PayPal will have to make major changes to recover. Personally, I don't see it.  

Investing: for the extended family, not for the general public; this is not an investment site -- this is the only way I can get information out to extended family quickly -- 

• Oracle (ORCL): down again today, significant drop; I bought more shares
• across the portfolio: fully invested;
• factoid of the day -- the guy who co-founded SanDisk is now CEO of Micron --

Cramer: lots of "good stuff" over at Corning.

Sweeping layoffs begin: Washington Post. Link here.

Ford: January sales down 5.3% year/year; Phil LeBeau blows it off; blames it on the storm.

ADP: came in at 22K, well below forecast of 45K;

• multi-millionaire Fed members don't feel the pain;
• it gets tedious. 

Tetanus vaccine: booster -- every 30 years!

AWS: has never retired a Nvidia A100GPU -- demand is so great. Link here. Despite the chip being six years old.

Bananas: price around the world, 513 cities. Link here. 

• per pound:

• NYC, NY: $1.10
• Dallas, TX: 75 cents
• Albany, NY: 65 cents 
• Raleigh, NC: 57 cents

Hump Day -- February 4, 2026

Locator: 49906B.

WMT: $1-trillion club. Eleven members. Link here.

Palantir's gross profit margin; 85%; up 5 pp Y/Y. Link here. 127% (rule of 40). "An n of 1." Greatest quote ever. The ring to rule them all.

Rule-of-40: link here. 

**********************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $63.44.

New wells reporting: 

• Thursday, February 5, 2026: 11 for the month, 64 for the quarter, 64 for the year.
• None.
• Wednesday, February 4, 2026: 11 for the month, 64 for the quarter, 64 for the year,
• 42153, conf, Neptune Operating, Gullickson 36-25 4H, 
• 41237, conf, Hunt Oil, Clearwater 157-90-14-12H-1,
• 41236, conf, Hunt Oil, Clearwater 157-9-14-11H-3, 
• 41234, conf, Hunt Oil, Clearwater 157-90-14-11H-1,
• 41461, conf, CLR, Garfield FIU 2-5HSL, 

RBN Energy: LNG exports, data centers have North American gas poised for rapid growth. Link here. Archived.