Saturday, April 13, 2019

Something Overlooked In The Most Recent Production Data For North Dakota -- April 13, 2019

See Director's Cut, data for February, 2019.

North Dakota would have easily set a new all-time production record had not an additional 150 wells gone inactive. Most likely they went inactive due to weather and operational reasons.

In all, off line:
  • DUCs: 894, up 27 from previous month (tracked here)
  • inactive: 1,667, up 150 from previous month
  • total: 2,561 (up from 2,384 last month, about 800 more wells than will be drilled this calendar year)
See Androids Fighting Brad and Janet

Science Fiction, Double Feature, Rocky Horror Picture Show

Updating Production Data For Several Bruin Monster Wells -- Antelope-Sanish -- April 13, 2019

The well:
  • 31774, 5,058, Bruin, Fort Berthold 151-94-27A-34-16H, API: 33-053-07183, Antelope-Sanish; a staggering well; 55 stages; 14.4 million lbs according to operator; t7/18; cum 401K 2/19; to date; almost one-half million boe in less than 8 months:
    • crude oil: 401,449 bbls
    • natural gas: 575,042,000 MCF = 95,824 boe
    • total boe: 497,273 boe
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Three older neighboring wells:
  • 20328, 1,647, Bruin, Fort Berthold 151-94-26B-35-1H, Antelope-Sanish, t3/12; cum 556K 2/19; 
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
  • 22708, 1,776, Bruin, Fort Berthold 151-94-26B-35-2H, Antelope-Sanish, t4/14; cum 313K 2/19; 
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
  • 22707, 1,959, Bruin, Fort Berthold 151-94-26B-35-3H, Antelope-Sanish, t4/14; cum 534K 2/19:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Week 15: April 7, 2019 -- April 13, 2019

The top energy story of the week: Chevron announces intention to buy Anadarko; here; here; here; celebrating;

Top US non-energy story: jobless claims lowest in 50 years;

Geoff Simon's top North Dakota energy stories
Williston's #1 school bond vote fails again
Conference committee okays pore space bill
Minot airline boardings take off in 2019; nearly 40,000 boarding in 1Q19
ND's new vapor pressure rules prompting more tests, faster enforcement

Kraken reports some nice pad drilling results;

On a treadmill; the WSJ weighs in again
Should rebound in 2019
MRO's "small" fracks;

Gets worse in the BLM


The Highs And Lows Of US Shale -- April 13, 2019

Both from the Financial Times:

Why I Love To Blog -- From The Readers -- April 13, 2019

Literally, less than a minute after posting this note, a reader sent me a link to this CNBC video:

All of the Middle East, less than 400 rigs actively drilling.

Currently, there are 464 active rigs in the Permian alone.

The Daily Note -- Days 101 - 150 Of the 115th US Congress

Polling: Real Clear Politics 

115th US Congress
Second 100 Days 
Days 51 - 100 (days 151 - 200)
Link here.

115th US Congress
Second 100 Days 
Days 1 - 50 (days 101 - 150)

May 31, 2019, T+50: this will get their attention. Trump slaps 5% tariff on Mexico and will increase the tariffs to 25% by October, 2019, if Mexico doesn't make meaningful progress in stopping the "southern surge."

May 30, 2019, T+49: it's obvious that Hillary is running for the Democratic nomination for president. There will be three phases: a) the phase she is in now; public speaking; attacking only Trump; not attacking the Democratic frontrunner(s); b) the anonymous attack dog phase -- when mainstream media starts attacking the frontrunner(s) -- the faux press releases will come from some organization that can't be traced back to Hillary; c) the open attack on the Democratic frontrunner(s). All this has to happen over the next twelve months; expect the first two phases to last for eleven months or so; the final phase will begin just before the DNC convention next summer.

May 29, 2019, T+48: Today, just released:
  • Biden down slightly at 34.8%
  • Bernie down slightly at 16.4%
  • Warren still can't get to 10%: 9.8%
  • Harris slips slightly: 7.4%
  • Buttigieg down ever so slightly: 6.0%
  • Beto "asshole" O'Rourke still flailing: 3.8%.
  • Others cracking the 1% threshold, taking a bit from Biden/Bernie. I hope they all get on stage.
May 28, 2019, T+47: quiet -- except for the 52 tornadoes in Ohio. Global warming. Still no new polls reported since May 20.  Beto: self-described "big asshole." Biden: no crowds

May 27, 2019, T+46: Biden is nowhere in the news; he is laying low. Tea leaves suggest he could lose support after his initial "honeymoon." It could become a shoot-out among Pocahontas, Kamala Harris (who is loved by the media), Buttigieg (also loved by the media). Beto could pick up a few points at Biden-Bernie's expense but he's a non-entity. Still, no one is talking about Hillary or polling voters on Hillary. She is attending too many high-profile events to suggests she has not ruled out another run. I think she's a player. Polls have not been updated since May 20, 2019.

May 26, 2019, T+45: Jon Voigt is woke. Voight declares Trump is the greatest president since Abraham Lincoln. I agree.

May 25, 2019, T+44: Brennan, Clapper call it "outrageous" that Trump / Barr will declassify "intelligence" reports that said Trump colluded with the Russians. I find it somewhat amazing that Mueller didn't complete the job -- once he determined there was no collusion, to investigate how it all started; who started it.

May 24, 2019, T+43: more impeachment talk. Trump's "executive orders" continue to be shut down by Obama-appointed federal judges. China trade talks going nowhere. Brexit breaks Theresa: she tearfully announced her resignation. Set date for new elections -- just a couple of weeks from now. Tea leaves suggest it could be the worse upset, most lopsided vote in the history of England. I had forgotten she had voted against Brexit. No wonder things went so badly. One GOP representative stopped the $19-billion relief and recovery package for al the flooding in the US and the hurricane damage to Puerto Rico years ago. Interesting, interesting story: remember -- Nancy Pelosi controls the US House; this was a bill that was almost unanimously passed by the US Senate -- and one US representative stopped it.

May 23, 2019, T+42: Buttigieg at 6.2; Beto at 3.7. Warren ever closer to 10% (9.8 today). Harris at 8.0. Beto flailing; Buttigieg stalled.

May 22, 2019, T+41: Notre Dame, IN, the home of the University of Notre Dame, for all intents and purposes is a suburb of South Bend, IN. One would assume much of Buggigieg's support comes from "locals." The fact that he endorsed post-birth abortions and late third-trimester abortions (to include homicide following a failed abortion) -- as enacted by New York state -- may have been the Rubicon he should not have crossed. He already admitted a huge mis-step when coming out against childhood vaccines. It will be interesting to see whether his polling numbers have peaked. 

May 21, 2019, T+40: quiet. Beto and Buttigieg flailing. I wonder if Buttigieg's appearance on Fox News hurt him?

May 20, 2019, T+39: Iowa -- Bernie/Biden tied. Perhaps that's the dream ticket -- Biden/Bernie.

May 19, 2019, T+38: quiet. In polling, Biden widens lead slightly over Bernie. Biden stays the same but Bernie drops. Kamala up slightly. Buttigieg up slightly. Dream ticket: Biden/Buttigieg or Biden/Kamala. Decisions, decisions. Beto drops below 4%. Apparently live-streaming his haircut/massage did not play well. Apparently he was born, not to be president, but to have his daily mundane activities streamed live. LOL.

May 18, 2019, T+37: conservative wins in Australia. "Global warming" scam in Australia dead. Done. Over.

May 17, 2019, T+36:  The University of Michigan’s preliminary print on its consumer sentiment index rose to 102.4, up from 97.2 in April and well ahead of expectations. The reading was the highest in 15 years. The last time the reading was this high was in 2004 -- before the Obama administration.

May 16, 2019, T+35: apparently the Dems are falling in line behind Pelosi -- stop all this talk about impeachment. If so, it looks like Hillary's star is fading; Hillary lost the battle. It also looks like Comey will be the fall guy (as noted earlier). As more and more of this comes out, there may be a reason the Dems are starting to re-assess.

May 15, 2019, T+34: panic sets in among Comey, Clapper, McCabe, Brennan as Barr (US Attorney General) sets sights on fake Steele dossier and spying (or surveillance) on Trump campaign. A silent coup. Comey may end up being the fall guy: In a statement to Fox News, a former CIA official put the blame squarely on Comey.

May 14, 2019, T+33: if Mueller is hesitant to talk before Congress, there may be a reason. There is now an active investigation into the original report that started everything. The original report was known to be bogus as soon as Mueller got it but he spent two years investigating.  Mueller may get the chance to testify under oath before this is all over.

May 13, 2019, T+32: stock market plunges 600 points over China-US trade war. 

May 12, 2019, T+31: Happy Mother's Day.

May 11, 2019, T+30: Biden now in the mid-40s; Bernie in the mid-teens. Pocahontas, Kamala, and Buttigieg each around 7%. All the rest irrelevant.

May 10, 2019, T+29: Rudy Giuliani, Trump's personal lawyer, now plans to "collude" with the Ukrainians. And will share what he finds with the American public. LOL. 

May 9, 2019, T+28: Still waiting for the US House to find Attorney General Barr in contempt of Congress. I still think he should call their bluff, plead guilty, and spend a few years resting, enjoying life.

May 8, 2019, T+27: The NYT says it has Trump's taxes, 1985 - 1994. Unable to explain large monetary gain in one of those years. Cattle futures? Accomplishments of the 115th US Congress are now being tracked here: .

May 7, 2019, T+26: wow, is this guy delusional?

Let's count the ways:
  • Declaration of Indepence
  • Bill of Rights
  • Emancipation Proclamation
  • WWII
  • The moon landing
  • Revolving sushi bars in Texas
May 6, 2019, T+25: market opens down 400 points; completely recovers. Investors being played.

May 5, 2019, T+24: after recent meeting with Putin, Kim fires off a few missiles. Trump says Kim would not go back on his word. I think Trump is being played. Sunday evening futures plunge: Dow off almost 400 points. S&P 500 down 40 points. 

May 4, 2019, T+23: Kentucky Derby with 19 horses. Twenty horses are selected to run each year; one horse scratched within 24 hours of the start. Very, very "sloppy" race track. Muddy. But the rain has stopped.

May 3, 2019, T+22: Pelosi suggests Trump could contest results of the 2020 election. LOL.The list of accomplishments of the 115th US Congress:

May 2, 2019, T+21: Pelosi's house -- they're starting to make Occasional-Cortex look good.

May 1, 2019, T+20: In midst of greatest measles outbreak in two decades, Buttigieg says he supports vaccine exemptions based on personal beliefs.

April 30, 2019, T+18: on the brink --

April 29, 2019, T+17: another record on Main Street. S&P 500 hits an intra-day high (posted at 11:16 a.m. Central Time).

April 28, 2019, T+16: this is not a political comment, just an observation. The best the Democrat party can do to take on Trump, is a 78-year-old white male who has run for president three times, or maybe seven times, depending on how one counts. Regardless, this is the best the country has to offer? But then again, a peanut farmer who took advice on nuclear disarmament from his 11-year-old daughter won the oval office some years ago. I guess nothing should surprise us any more.

April 27, 2019, T+15: just prior to his announcement Biden was polling 29% (through April 21, 2019). He announced April 25, 2019. 

April 26, 2019, T+14: I was waiting to see if anyone noted the timing. It takes a few days to "reserve" one's spot in the op-ed of any newspaper. It was telegraphed that Joe Biden would announce his candidacy on Thursday, April 25, 2019, yesterday. Hold that thought. He made his announcement at oh-dark-thirty via a video which was released at the very same time the morning edition of the Washington Post was being delivered. And on the very day that Biden announced his candidacy, Hillary Clinton has her op-ed in the Washington Post. 

April 25, 2019, T+13: Joe Biden, in a video aired at oh-dark-thirty, announces he will "definitely" run for president. His only policy statement: to run against Trump and making American great again. Say what you want, but this sounds like a woman who wants to jump back into the race:
Clinton continued in the piece to call on Congress to “hold substantive hearings that build on the Mueller report and fill in its gaps,” and said the country needs “clear-eyed patriotism, not reflexive partisanship.” [After all, only she can provide that "clear-eyed patriotism."]
April 24, 2019, T+12: at some point, folks need to call out Bernie Sanders. It's one thing to be a communist/socialist, but supporting the "Marathon Bomber's" right to vote is beyond the pale. Kamala Harris, when asked the same question, agreed with Bernie before she began to walk that back. I had not heard her speak before in a town meeting venue. She sounded drunk or perhaps on medication. Having said that, this is an opportunity for Biden to put Bernie Sanders out to pasture. Biden can completely ignore the "felon's right to vote" issue but simply say the "Marathon Bomber will never be given the right to vote." 

April 23, 2019, T+11: booming economy. Under Hillary it would have been one long recession. 

April 22, 2019, T+10: over on Twitter, I quit following President Trump the re-tweets were becoming unbearable. My whole Twitter feed was becoming one big political feed. I will probably un-follow an oil analyst -- same problem -- tweets too often and uses all "CAPS."

April 21, 2019, T+9: from twitter today --

April 20, 2019, T+8: the Mueller investigation. A coup attempt. Led by Obama. Pure and simple.

April 19, 2019, T+7: Mueller investigation. Mainstream media shocked that President Trump took the investigation so seriously, got so upset over the witch hunt. Is that politically correct? "A witch hunt."

April 18, 2019, T+6: first time unemployment claims set new all-time record low -- last week it was a 50-week low; this week it's even lower. The Democrats' response: resist!

April 17, 2019, T+5: Everyone is upset that the attorney general brief his boss before he briefed Congress. LOL.

April 16, 2019, T+4: Hillary Clinton pledged to put a lot of coal miners out of work; she lost the election. Pocahontas, a millionaire and no need to worry about work, pledges to put a lot of oil and gas workers on the dole. 

April 15, 2019, T+3:  "Make America worse?"

April 14, 2019, T+2: 102nd day of the 115th US Congress. US House concerned that IRS not doing its job auditing Trump's tax returns -- one of the reasons they want his tax filings released. LOL. Tell me again that Lois Lerner did not take a look at those tax filings, and pass any concerning information to her boss. This all reminds me again how much "deep state" Trump was fighting when he won.

April 13, 2019, T+1: 101st day of the 115th US Congress.

The first hundred days of the 115th US Congress are linked here.

Family Commitments Will Significantly Impact Blogging This Week -- April 13, 2019

Good luck to everyone.

By the way, the annual four-day arts festival in Ft Worth, TX, to be held this weekend, was canceled ... due .. to ... winter storm.

I can't make this stuff up.

The Craziness Of Investing


April 14, 2019: news for Boeing gets worse. American Airlines joins Southwest in extending flight cancellations as jet-grounding drags on. Link at WSJ.  

Original Post
We all follow TSLA pretty closely. The craziness of investors ... and investing.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Boeing: incredibly bad news in the past two six months -- 737 Max 8 -- 346 deaths -- their plane of the future -- customers canceling orders -- Airbus close on Boeing's heels -- company cutting back on 737 Max 8 production -- expect to be back in service not sooner than August, 2019 ... and shares are trading higher than they were prior to all this bad news. Boeing pays 2%.

Meanwhile, Chevron Corp announces a huge deal that should excite its investors, attempting to "steal" a top shale oil company, and may not have to raise much debt to close the deal. Following the announcement, CVX drops five percent. CVX pays 4%. See this short CNBC video.

Some excerpts from the linked Bloomberg article at Investor Village:
At $33 billion, Chevron Corp.’s acquisition of Anadarko Petroleum Corp. is something of a bargain, according to investors.
Chevron was punished nonetheless. The shares began declining as soon as the transaction was announced at 6 a.m. New York time on Friday and were down 5.3 percent to $119.35 at 3:45 p.m. Anadarko soared 32 percent.

The $65-a-share offer for Anadarko represents a 39 percent premium to Thursday’s price, but the stock traded at about $77 less than a year ago. The deal values Anadarko at only about about 7.5 times its earnings, compared with an average of 8.9 for comparable deals.
“I don’t necessarily feel like they overpaid even with the premium embedded in the deal,” said Noah Barrett, who helps manage $328 billion at Janus Capital Management in Denver. Chevron is “getting good assets at a fairly reasonable price.”

Like other U.S. explorers, Anadarko had been punished by investors for participating in a shale boom that has delivered record crude production but little in the way of cash returns. Its wide range of assets from the Permian Basin to the Gulf of Mexico and Mozambique left investors exposed to a multitude of risks in the global oil market.

Its Colorado operations, meanwhile, were devalued due to a state crackdown on oil and gas drilling.
Most important takeaway in all of this: Colorado.

Spoiler? OXY?

From same linked article:
Occidental Petroleum Corp. made a $70-per-share offer for Anadarko, according to a person familiar with the matter. But the deal would have been tougher for Occidental to pull off than for Chevron given its smaller size and narrower range of upstream expertise, potentially dragging down its share price.

Without Question, The Big Story In February, 2019, Director's Cut -- Flaring -- April 13, 2019

The February, 2019, data is posted here.

Ever since the Bakken boom began, the flaring issue has been most problematic on the reservation.

Some months ago, the state threw in the towel and relaxed the rules.

Prior to relaxing the rules, the percent of produced natural gas captured on the reservation was not too far different from that of the rest of the state.

The state goal is to capture 88% of produced natural gas, a compromise between what the faux environmentalists would like and the oil companies would like. Don't take that out of context. The oil companies have their "goals"; the faux environmentalists have their "goals." The former measures success in dollars and cents; the faux environmentalists measure their success differently, but certainly not in dollars and cents. Do not take that out of context. The regulators have to thread the needle using different parameters when setting standards, goals, regulations. Not an easy task.

We've had this discussion before.

Wow, a digression. All I wanted to say is that the state was approaching success in meeting their goal to capture 88% of produced natural gas. But the reservation is the laggard. Last month, the reservation captured 71% of produced natural gas. I thought that was an all-time (recent) low and couldn't get lower. Boy, was I wrong. In February, 69% capture rate.

For The Record

All Those Tornadoes Predicted Due To Global Warming? Never Mind -- At Least Not In Minnesota; Bill Maher: He Be Woke -- April 13, 2019

From a reader:


The Language Page

I was reminded of this late last night when I saw this banner/headline over at Fox News:

The word has been around, like, forever.

From wiki:
Woke is a political term of African American origin that refers to a perceived awareness of issues concerning social justice and racial justice. It is derived from the African American Vernacular English expression "stay woke", whose grammatical aspect refers to a continuing awareness of these issues. Its widespread use since 2014 is a result of the Black Lives Matter movement.
But it's been around forever:

Oxford Dictionaries records early politically conscious usage in 1962 in the article "If You're Woke You Dig It" by William Melvin Kelley in The New York Times and in the 1971 play Garvey Lives! by Barry Beckham ("I been sleeping all my life. And now that Mr. Garvey done woke me up, I’m gon stay woke. And I’m gon help him wake up other black folk.") – Garvey had himself exhorted his early 20th century audiences, "Wake up Ethiopia! Wake up Africa!"

Earlier, J. Saunders Redding recorded a comment from an African American United Mine Workers official in 1940 ("Let me tell you buddy. Waking up is a damn sight harder than going to sleep, but we'll stay woke up longer.")

Lead Belly uses the phrase near the end of the recording of his 1938 song, Scottsboro Boys, while explaining about the namesake incident, saying "I advise everybody to be a little careful when they go along through there, stay woke, keep their eyes open."

African American Vernacular English?

Steven Pinker discusses African American Vernacular English in his 1994 book, The Language Instinct: How the Mind Creates Language.

Very early in the book, starting on page 29, Pinker discusses the grammar of "the dialect called Black English Vernacular (BEV)." Referencing dialogue by "Larry," Pinker writes:
The most linguistically interesting thing about the dialect is how linguistically uninteresting it is: if [the linguist William] Labov did not have to call attention to it to debunk the claim that ghetto children lack true linguistic competence, it would have been filed away as just another language. Where Standard American English (SAE) uses there as a meaningless dummy subject for the copula, BEV uses it as a meaningless dummy subject for the copula (compare SAE's There's really a God with Larry's It's really a God).

Larry's negative concord (You ain't goin' to no heaven) is seen in many languages, such as French (ne ... pas). Like speakers of SAE, Larry inverts subjects and auxiliaries in nondeclarative sentences, but the exact set of the sentence types allowing inversion differs slightly.

Larry and other BEV speakers invert subjects and auxiliaries in negative main clauses like Don't nobody know? and a few other sentence types.

BEV allows its speakers the option of deleting copulas (If you bad); this is not random laziness but a systematic rule that is virtually identical to the contraction rule in SAE that reduces He is to He's.
With regard to Bill Maher, it appears he be woke. He is certainly woke on the immigration issue but in most other regards he be sleeping.

By the way, remember all that political talk about "dog whistles"? "Woke" is the very same thing: a dog whistle.

Don't you just love this stuff?

The Director's Cut Has Been Posted; Flaring Getting Worse On BLM -- February 2019, Data

Update, April 13, 2019: North Dakota would have easily set a new all-time production record had not an additional 150 wells gone inactive. Most likely they went inactive due to weather and operational reasons. 

The usual disclaimer applies: this page is done very quickly. There will be factual and typographical errors. If this information is important to you, go to the source.

Link here.

Director's Cuts are tracked here.

... and the number is ... 1,335,064 bopd -- and as predicted last month, it was lower than January's production due to weather ...

Crude oil production (if the revision is an increase of only 340 bbls of oil, it will be another all-time high -- my hunch: the final number will be revised upward by at least 1,500 bbls):
  • January, 2019: initial estimate of 1,402,420 bopd was revised to 1,403,808 which set a new all-time record
  • December, 2018: had also hit a new all-time high, revised-- 1,402,741 bopd (final)
That was December, 2018; and, January, 2019: two new all-time records.

Now February, 2019, data. As predicted, a decrease month-over-month due to weather. But also, not number of producing wells -- see below

Crude oil production:
  • February, 2019: 1,335,064 bopd (will be revised upward when final data posted next month)
  • January, 2019: 1,403,808 bopd (set all-time record)
Producing wells:
  • February, 2019: preliminary, 15,090
  • January, 2019: 15,409 (new all-time high)
  • December, 2018: 15,369
Production, boe:
  • crude oil: 1,335,064 bopd
  • natural gas: 2,630,490 MCF/D = 438,328 boepd
  • total, February, 2019 = 1,773,392 boepd
  • last month, January, 2019: total boe: 1,857,148 boepd 
  • December, 2018, boepd data: 1,842,979 boepd
  • if that's accurate, the January, 2019, production on a "boepd" basis, a new all-time high record was set in North Dakota in January, 2019; 
  • Crude oil production:
  • February, 2018: 1,335,064 bopd (preliminary)
  • January, 2019: 1,403,808 bopd (final)
  • December, 2018: hits a new all-time high, revised-- 1,402,741 bopd (final)
  • delta, bbls, February - January: 48,744 bopd
  • delta, percent: a decrease of 3.5% month-over-month -- one of the largest month-over-month decreases in a long time
Producing wells:
  • February, 2019: 15,090 (note the decrease from last month)
  • January, 2019: 15,409 (new all-time high)
  • December, 2018: 15,369
Natural gas production:
  • February, 2019: 2,630,409, MCF/day
  • January, 2019: 2,720,492 MCF/day-- new all-time high
  • December, 2018: 2,651,375 MCF/day
  • delta, cubic feet, February-January: a decrease of 90,083 Mcf/d
  • delta, percent: 3.3%
  • March, 2019: 133 drilling
  • February, 2019: 109 drilling
  • January, 2019: 219
  • December, 2018: 92

Off line:
  • DUCs: 894, up 27 from last report (tracked here)
  • inactive: 1,667, up 150 from last report
  • total: 2,561 (up from 2,384 last month, about 800 more wells than will be drilled this calendar year)
  • statewide, captured, February, 2019: 2,126,271 Mcf/day
  • statewide, captured, February, 2019: 2,2,214,07 Mcf/day (all-time high)
  • statewide, capture: 81% (unchanged from previous month)
  • FBIR Bakken: 69% -- same as the previous month -- wow, wow, down from 71% the previous month
  • current goal: 88%