Tuesday, April 16, 2019

Pelosi, Et Al, Have Not Been Able To Do The Math -- April 16, 2019


April 17, 2019: just like clockwork. Yesterday, Yuma became the second city to cry "Uncle." Today, this headline: group of 170 migrants surrender at Texas border. From McAllen, TX, the main route for drug smuggling and human trafficking, a group of 170 migrants from Central American surrended to US authorities shortly after crossing the Rio Grande. The migrants claimed to be from Honduras, Guatemala, El Salvador, and Nicaragua.

Original Post

We now have the second city crying "Uncle!" First, it was Las Cruces, now it's Yuma, Arizona.

I don't think Pelosi et al understand the math.

Less than an additional 200 migrants overwhelmed Las Cruces, NM. Now, Yuma says it's reached its breaking point. The number of immigrants coming in was not noted, but my hunch it's far less than 100,000.

The federal government says it rounded up 103,000 illegal immigrants along the southern border in March, 2019.

If the trend continues, it's hard for me to believe that Arizona, New Mexico, or Texas will vote against Trump in 2020.

Huge Win For Both, But Investors Clearly Think Qualcomm Was The Big Winner -- Waiting For Trump To Weigh In With His Two Cents Worth -- April 16, 2019, T+4, Part 2


April 18, 2019: see original note. Apparently there is at least one other lawsuit/issue. It turns out Apple and Qualcomm are still going to court to settle the patent issue. I'm not sure I understand all this.

Having said, regarding the case that was settled out of court this week, Macrumors has more on this issue. Not publicly disclosed but UBS analyst suggests:
  • Apple likely paid somewhere around $5 to $6 billion to settle its ongoing legal battle with Qualcomm
  • this $5 to $6 billion payment would have been royalty fees that Apple had stopped paying over the course of its two-year legal fight with Qualcomm
  • Qualcomm may also be receiving between $8 and $9 per iPhone from Apple in ongoing patent royalties
  • Qualcomm said is expects to increase its earnings per share by $2
  • Apple previously paid $7.50 in royalties, so at $8 to $9 per iPhone, Apple would be shelling out more cash than it did before
  • Apple appears to have had no alternative but to settle with Qualcomm, as it had no other way to source 5G chips for its 2020 iPhone lineup
  • Apple initially had planned to use Intel chips but rumors suggest that Intel wasn't meeting development goals
  • after the Apple-Qualcomm settlement was announced, Intel announced it was abandoning 5G chip development altogether
  • Samsung will start rolling out 5G this year; Apple could not afford any delay
Original Post

Apple / Qualcomm settle suit out of court.

Qualcomm stock surges, but it was also a huge win for AAPL investors also.

The trial was set to begin this month.

Site of trial: San Diego:

Qualcomm headquartered in San Diego.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read her.

Netflix: later. If I remember.

IBM: misses.

WTI: whoo-hoo -- up 1%; closed at $64.04. Link here, API data:
  • crude oil inventory, weekly draw of 3.096 million bbls vs expectations of a 1.711 million barrel build
  • gasoline draw of 3.561 million bbls; vs a draw of 2.133 million bbls
  • false precision: 0.001 million bbls = 1,000 bbls
  • numbers would be a bit more "credible" if the draw had been 3 million bbls vs an expectation of 2 million bbls
  • 1,000 bbls / 100 million bbls consumed daily world wide = 0.00001 or 0.001% (assuming the arithmetic is correct; a big assumption)
  • whatever
Hope springs eternal: T-Mobile / Sprint deal unlikely in current form.

The "fix" is in: FAA finds Boeing "fix" "suitable." Has anyone seen the ATT commercials, "just good enough" is not good enough? Or something to that effect. "Hello, this is your captain speaking. In a few minutes we will be taking off. Thank you for choosing to fly our Boeing 737 Max 8. The FAA has found 'our fix' to crashing jets to be 'suitable.' Have a good flight."

I can give you sixteen reasons, but eight is a good start: "8 reasons why gas prices are going up." Link here, at MoneyWise. The number one reason, the elephant in the room: President Obama killed the Keystone XL. Six of the eight reasons given at the link are crap but they "cover" Obama's ass.

China: looking to buy more US pork, poultry to reach trade deal. 10-1 odds Trump will be given no credit by the mainstream media if this happens. China was hoping to wait Trump out but Goldman Sachs now predicts Trump will win a second term. Trump's popularity at this point is higher than Obama's -- 53%.

Wells Fargo: could be the GE of the banking sector, InvestorPlace. Warren Buffett has held on to Wells Fargo through thick and thin.

Beto; not charitable. Released tax returns: never gave more than 0.5% of $350,000 annual income. What was that about tithing? From a reader, if 10% was good enough for Jesus, 10% ought to be good enough for Uncle Sam:

If 10% Is Good Enough ...., Ray Stevens

Boeing: government bailout just in time. Secures $14 billion deal for modernizing B-1 and B-52 bombers. Zacks. Zacks with a "k." Goldman Sachs with an "h."

Home free. Anadarko rises after analysts say Chevron deal "looks fair." Has anyone see the new ATT commercials ....

We're Doomed! -- AOC -- April 16, 2019, T+4 ; O'Hare Canceling Flights Due To Winter Storm (A Couple Of Days Ago)

Link here.

With regard to twitter, the best thing I ever did was quit following Scott Adams. The second best thing I ever did was quit following John Kemp. So I was surprised to see John Kemp pop up on my twitter feed. Turns out that it was a re-tweet from David Sheppard whom I do follow.

It appears we are all doomed.

I'm going to enjoy what little time I have left. I'm heading over to Copeland's: Famous New Orleans Restaurant for coffee and cheesecake later this afternoon. Or maybe an eclair at Starbucks.

Good luck to everyone.

Will This Winter (N)ever End?

Chicago: snowfall -- biggest snowstorm this late in the season in 50 years. Link here. And it wasn't just a slight dusting:
Chicago's O'Hare Airport was whitened by 5.3 inches of snow on Sunday.
That made April 14 one of the top-two snowiest days this late in the season. The snowiest day in the city's history from April 14 to early May is 5.4 inches of snow on April 16, 1961.
It was enough to bring Chicago O'Hare and Chicago Midway airports to a ground stop for arriving flights, according to the Federal Aviation Administration.
O'Hare canceled 436 flights on Sunday amid snow and ice, according to Flight Aware.

Eau Claire, WI: sets a daily snowfall record on April 10, 2019. Link here

Where's Waldo? April 16, 2019

Link here.

I'm somewhat disappointed in the graph below. Note, this graph comes from Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, a highly respected laboratory, and the US government. Even the URL is ".gov."

But yet these is something very wrong about the graphic. Do you see what is wrong with this graphic? It is difficult to see on this graphic; you really have to download the image (at the link) to see the error.

Some may consider it a very subtle manipulation. I don't know.

But note: the graphic is not to scale. Look at the source blocks at the left for solar, nuclear, hydro, wind, geothermal, and biomass. The six blocks differ very, very slightly in size but for the most part, the rectangles for those six sources of energy are all the same size. Biomass at slightly more than 5 quads should be five times the size of solar at slightly less than 1 quad.

I mis-read the graphic the first time. It appears that the "solar" rectangle is the same size, or perhaps even larger than the "nuclear" rectangle. It's almost impossible to read unless you download the actual graphic, but it appears to be 8.44 quads.

So, the solar source is 0.949 quads and the nuclear source is 8.44 quads and yet the boxes are nearly the same size, and because of the color or actual size, the solar box appears to be bigger than the nuclear box.

Once that is pointed the rest if obvious. Obvious distortion. The petroleum box should be almost 40x the solar box; in fact, the petroleum box is about 5x the solar box.

The wind box should be 2.5x the size of the solar box, and the two are almost equal in size.

Solar should be 5x the size of the geothermal box, and yet the two are almost equal in size.

I may be misreading something, but I've looked at it several times and that's what I'm seeing.

The narrative is even worse. The ".gov" or Lawrence Livermore is certainly trying -- it appears -- to establish a narrative and an agenda.

If you can't read the numbers for the boxes at the left, here they are:
  • solar: 0.949
  • nuclear: 8.44
  • hydro: 2.69
  • wind: 2.53
  • geothermal: 0.217
  • natural gas: 31
  • coal: 13.3
  • biomass: 5.13
  • petroleum: 36.9
Not perfect rounding but if I had a 30-second elevator speech:
  • petroleum: 40%; almost half
  • natural gas: 30%
  • petroleum and natural gas together: 70%
  • coal: 15%
  • petroleum, natural gas, coal, together: 80%
  • wind: 3% 
  • wind: 2.5x solar
  • solar: inconsequential
Oh, did I forget geothermal?

No, not even enough to make my 30-second elevator speech.

Pocahontas: wants to ban drilling for oil and natural gas on federal land.

Headline: Democratic presidential candidate wants to ban oil drilling.

April 16, 2019, T+4 -- Keeping America Great

SRE: Cameron LNG reaches final commissioning stage of first liquefaction train.
Cameron LNG has begun pipeline feed gas flow to the first liquefaction train of the liquefaction-export project as it prepares to begin production of liquefied natural gas (LNG) at the facility in Hackberry, La. This is the final commissioning step for Train 1 of Cameron LNG Phase 1.
US LNG export facilities are tracked here

April 16, 2019, T+4

Driving season yet to begin:

New all-time record: 100 quadrillion BTUs. The actual number is 101.2 quadrillion BTUs, as "measured" by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. It's amazing to see how much this country no longer "trusts" nuclear energy. Solar energy accounted for 0.949 quads (not even a single quad) whereas nuclear energy was even less, at 0.44 quads. 


Summer Must Be Around The Corner -- Active Rig Number Startng To Rise -- April 16, 2019

Wells coming off the confidential list today -- Tuesday, April 16, 2019: 55 wells for the month; 55 wells for the quarter
  • 34320, 307, Windridge Operating, Sandpiper State 35-26 B1H, Short Creek, t10/18; cum 15K 2/19;
  • 34314, SI/NC, XTO, Arlene Federal 44X-23F, North Fork, no production data,
  • 33881, drl, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC David 7-29-32-157N-99W TFH, Lone Tree Lake, no production data,
  • 32928, drl, Sinclair Oil & Gas, Sinclair State 6-36TFH, Robinson Lake, no production data,
Active rigs:

Active Rigs6559512993

RBN Energy: beat crude gathering system to help Permians' Midland Basin grow.
The rapid development of the Permian’s vast hydrocarbon resources that we expect will continue through the 2020s and beyond can’t happen if there’s insufficient gathering-pipeline infrastructure in place to transport crude from well sites to takeaway pipelines. Similarly, the favorable pricing that Permian producers hope to receive for their crude oil is possible only if their gathering systems are interconnected to two or more long-haul, big-bore pipelines that offer them some serious destination optionality.
The need for new gathering pipes with multiple links to Gulf Coast- and Cushing-bound takeaway pipes is the driving force behind the Beta Crude Connector, a planned 100-mile-plus pipeline network in the heart of the Permian’s Midland Basin that was unveiled on Monday (April 15) by a joint venture of Concho Resources and gathering specialist Frontier Energy Services. Today, we kick off a new blog series on crude-gathering projects in the Permian with a look at the Concho/Frontier plan.
Grapevine, TX
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Family shopping; I'm enjoying coffee at the best French coffee shop in Texas.