Monday, March 12, 2012

Random Idle Comment for Investors

I was surprised how well the share prices of many oil and gas companies held up today despite oil dropping a buck/bbl.

Futures don't mean squat, but it is interesting that futures right now show a nice opening on the NYSE tomorrow, and oil is trending up.

It is interesting to compare 1Q11 WTI prices with this quarter, 1Q12. I may be way off, but I'm seeing almost $5 - $10/bbl higher for the entire quarter. That's not trivial.

Deeper Look At Some Of The Wells Reporting Today -- The Williston Basin, North Dakota, USA

First, a Madison well in Ward County, about 17 miles west of Minot, just outside of Berthold, North Dakota:
  • 21145, DRY, Vecta, Neshem 26-1, wildcat, Madison (not a Bakken), s9/11; 
A West Ambrose oil field well; look at the cumulative (35,000 bbls as of 1/12, and it was tested that same month):
  • 20486, 787, SM Energy, Wolter 13-23H, West Ambrose, Bakken, s9/11; t1/12; F; cum 35K 1/12. This well produced 17,000 bbls over 27 days in January 2012; 11,000 bbls over 18 days in December 2011; and 11,000 bbls over 15 days in November 2011.
 This EOG well looks like it's gonna be a good one:
  • 19802, DRL, EOG, Liberty LR 18-14H, Van Hook, Bakken, s5/23/11; yet to be completed; production so far: 2 days in Sept 2011 - 4,131 bbls; 31 days in Oct 2011 - 25,272 bbls; 30 days in Nov 2011 -- 18,087 bbls; 26 days in Dec 2011 -- 18,364 bbls; 31 days in Jan 2012 -- 18,145 bbls; that totals 83,999 bbls in about four months. This was a long laydown (directly west-east) under the river; projected measured depth 8,979 feet; and 22,655 total depth -- meaning horizontal was about 13,676 feet (2.6 miles). Reached total depth on/about 7/9/11 -- so, about 45 days of drilling.
The OXY USA IPs were interesting. Again.

Link here to "New Wells Reporting."

Silver Oak Energy Reports A Red River B Well On Its First Try -- The Williston Basin, North Dakota, USA


October 25, 2014: from the file report, a sundry form dated November 7, 2013 --
Our reason for temporarily abandoning the well is to allow more time for prospect evaluation and review of offset activity. The well will be inspected at least annually for the presence of pressure or leakage at the surface.
The inspection date and results will be reported on the TA extension if one is requested. Any pressure or leakage will be reported immediately.
Original Post
Link here.

See comment about initial flow: very nice for a Red River well.
  • 20950, PA/55, Silver Oak Energy, Rankin 1-35H, Cedar Hills, Red River B (not a Bakken), t2/12; cum 5,081 bbls 9/13;

How To Obtain "More" Fracking Data for Individual Wells -- The Williston Basin, North Dakota, USA


December 21, 2015: for even more detailed fracking data, and to obtain fracking data even before a well comes off the confidential list, visit FracFocus. FracFocus does not provide the number of stages, nor does it provide the number of pounds of proppant but one can use the data provided to estimate fairly closely the amount of proppant used, and from that, (perhaps) estimate the number of stages.
Original Post
I am getting more and requests from folks on how to find the information that has been posted on this blog regarding fracking of individual wells.

First of all, the best information comes from corporate presentations and in the quarterly conference earnings calls. The corporations may not break down fracking details by well, but they sometimes provide their "philosophy" on number of stages, and whether they use ceramics.

Second, some readers send me updates on information that I have missed.

Third, and this gets to what folks are probably asking about. I get almost all of the specific information that I post about an individual well from the NDIC website, Basic Services. It requires a subscription (password) and costs $50/year.

Once you get that subscription, when a well comes off the confidential list and reports an IP, the completion data/fracking data generally is posted with the File Report. Because fracking is about the last thing a producer does, this information is generally at the top of the well file if one is checking recently completed wells.

The data will be found on a 3-page "sundry" form. The bottom of the first page provides the company's IP for the well; the second page provide that formation depths (in feet) and the target formation; and, the third page has the fracking data. It has become my experience that 9 out of 10 companies now provide that data on a timely basis. One company is notoriously late. A reader tells me that operators are not required to provide fracking/completion data; somehow I doubt that, but I could be wrong.

If the fracking data is provided, the number of stages is almost always provided. The amount of proppant used, which includes sand, is generally included.

About half the companies are providing very detailed proppant information (size of sand, ceramics) but some are vague. I can't remember off the top of my head who is most forthcoming but I can say that BEXP has been the best in providing their data. I don't remember any specific data from Whiting wells, but they are also most forthcoming, particularly in their corporate presentations and their quarterly conference calls.

If after you subscribe to Basic Services, and download the well file, and still unable to find fracking data, most likely is was not provided. If you get that far, and just not sure if you missed it, send me a comment/query, and I will see if I can find the fracking data. It helps if you provide the file number.

Before writing me, you may want to search the Bakken Shale Discussion Group (linked at the sidebar at the right). 

There is no guarantee that I will reply to all queries. I do not post all comments. I generally only post comments that a) pertain to the Bakken; and, b) add some value to the blog. Vulgarity is never posted. 


Idle rambling regarding my thoughts on knowing the number of stages and whether ceramics were used in a particular well:

For me, the specific fracking data for a particular well no longer matters. I look up the data and post the data periodically, mostly when the spirit moves me and/or something unusual stands out about the well.

Why it no longer matters to me:

1. The geology of each well is different.

2. The operators are more forthcoming in their presentations on what they prefer -- how many stages, ceramics, or no ceramics. If the company does not provide that data in their corporate presentations or in their quarterly conference calls, checking up on several wells gives me an idea of their preferences, in a very general way.

3. The jury is still out on cost benefit regarding sand vs ceramics.

4. The cost of fracking is still just one component, albeit a very big component, of bringing a well to production. In fact, to some extent, I don't even care all that much about how much it costs to bring a particular well to production. One well is anecdotal; three months' worth of data (a calendar quarter) is helpful in spotting a trend, but it's a year's worth of data that is of any help to me, and the operators provide that information in their corporate presentations.

5. The number of stages to use on a particular well, how much proppant to use, and whether or not to use ceramics, may depend as much on availability of material (proppants, e.g.) as anything else. One certainly gets the impression that some companies are containing costs upfront by minimizing stages and amount of proppant used.

So, some idle rambling; not checked for typos, will do that later. Mostly my first thoughts on the subject at this sitting; these thoughts may change over time.

Three (3) New Permits -- The Williston Basin, North Dakota, USA

Daily activity report, March 12, 2012 --

Operators: OXY USA, Crescent Point Energy, and Whiting

Fields: Murphy Creek

Crescent Point and Whiting each have a permit for a wildcat, CPE in Williams County, and Whiting's in Golden Valley

Twenty-one (21) wells came off the "confidential" list. One was a salt water disposal; fifteen (15) wells reported an IP, including:
  • 20083, 25, OXY USA, Richard Dvorak 1-33-28H-143-95, Dunn County, Bakken,
  • 20194, 63, OXY USA, wannemacher 1-4-9H-142-95, Dunn County, Bakken, 
  • 20824, 1,229, MRO, Bears Ghost USA 31-4H, Dunn County, Bakken,
  • 20950, 55, Silver Oak Energy, Rankin 1-35H, Slope County, Red River B (not a Bakken)
  • 21380, 1,424, Hess, LK-Pohribnak 147-96-16H-2, Dunn County, Bakken, 
The others were all Bakken wells; of the remaining ones that reported an IP, most fell in the 250 - 850 range, about what one would expect, nothing remarkable. They will all be reported elsewhere, under "New Wells Reporting" once the data is posted (and I get to it).

Seven more wells were reported as producing or plugged.

No wells on DRL status reported an IP today.

For Investors Only -- KOG


Later: from Motley Fool:
Despite its triple-digit P/E, some (including myself and my Foolish colleague Isac Simon) believe the company's stock might even be considered cheap. Fool analyst Dan Dzombak thinks that Kodiak might be ripe for a buyout, but macroeconomic trends are favorable for the company's continued success, even without digging into the deep pockets of a big-daddy driller. We've heard quite a lot about the high price of oil, and there's little reason to expect it to decline as high-growth regions like China and India push for greater prosperity.
From SeekingAlpha: Four independent oil and gas companies to consider
Mentioned: Ultra Petroleum, Contango Oil, KOG, Newfield. This sentence seems strange: "Kodiak did not declare dividends because of losses absorbed last reporting period." KOG has reported losses for the past five years (in addition to the last reporting period). Even without losses, the cash flow for most Bakken companies is such they would not be in a position to pay dividends. In fact, to the best of my knowledge, almost no (or none) pure-play Bakken companies pay a dividend. Maybe I'm reading that statement wrong.
Original Post

I don't get it. Thousands of companies to pick from, and again, a SeekingAlpha contributor highlights two oil companies, one of which is KOG.

Recently there was an article about four oil companies under a "short attack," which I did not post, or link, and won't today, but one of the four was KOG. With the price of oil down a buck today, I would have naturally thought that KOG, under a "short attack" and now with oil down, would naturally pull back, and significantly so.

But, as I said earlier, "I don't get it." Here KOG is today, holding its own.

This is just a random note; I have no plans to buy, sell, or do anything else with KOG in the near future. I never make recommendations; everyone has their specific goals and circumstances.

I just happened to hear CNBC mention XOM, and there's another surprise: oil is down a buck today, and XOM is up 1.5 percent. Whatever.

Random Update on SM Energy Permits, The Bakken, North Dakota, USA With Regard To Stark County

SM Energy permits issued in 2010, totaled 25 permits. None in Stark County. Most of SM permits were in McKenzie and Divide counties.

SM Energy permits issued in 2011, totaled 28 permits. Only one permit in Stark County, and IP not yet released by NDIC.

  • 21673, conf, SM Energy, Bogner 13-20H, wildcat, east of Dickinson, south of the Gladstone oil field
SM Energy permits issued in 2012, so far, have totaled 8 permits. No permits in Stark County.

My data base may have errors in it, but not many.

Why DC Bureaucrats Aren't Worried About Price of Gasoline -- Until They Get Back Home

Let them eat cake -- Michelle

As a rule of thumb, folks across the nation spend 5 - 10% of their income on gasoline.  The folks in the northeast are at the lower end.

But the lowest: District of Columbia, where residents spend just 1.4% of their income on gasoline. (I remember posting this a long time ago, or at least reading about it, and was as dumbfounded then, as I am now. As we all know, SecEnergy Stephen Chu spends nothing on gasoline; he does not own a car.)

North Dakota: 10%

California: 7%

Texas: 9%

Minnesota: 6%

With the vast northeast spending around 5% of their income on gasoline, and even Californians spending only 7% of their annual income on gasoline, it helps explain why talking heads are not particularly worried about the rising price of gasoline. In many cases, state taxes exceed gasoline expenditures.

The Europeans have always envied our inexpensive fuels.

Note to the Granddaughters

So, in the northeast, we have folks complaining AT THE PUMP about the price of gasoline, but at the end of the month, when paying their credit cards, it's a minor nuisance for those in the northeast. I would wager that restaurant meals in the northeast take a much bigger bite than gasoline. (Every Thursday, our two granddaughters, my wife, and I have a Burger King meal -- just under $25. I put in $20 worth of gasoline into the Honda Civic I borrow every week or so. An occasional meal at Burger King with the granddaughters costs more than the occasional gasoline I use.)

Oh, by the way, as long as I'm rambling. The BEST cafe in the world for dessert is in Ipswich, Massachusetts! Cafe Zabaglione. A modest dinner for the two granddaughters, my wife, and I, with individual desserts for all results in a bill that far exceeds filling the tank of the Honda Civic. Website for Cafe Zabalione here. We love it. About an hour from where we live.

An even bigger bite as a percent of annual income? Communications, telephone, television -- add up the bill for cell phones, land lines, iPads, internet, cable television, Netflix, digital newspaper subscriptions, etc. This total is not trivial.

Fidelity (MDU): New Bakken Production Record and Acquires Additional Bakken Acreage

Link here to press release. 

Also, update on Fidelity (MDU) permits issued since 2010.

From linked press release above:
Fidelity reached a new Bakken production record of over 3,500 net barrels of oil per day from its operated wells. Including its non-operated production, the peak rate is now over 5,000 net barrels of oil per day.

The company also recently acquired an additional 27,000 acres of leaseholds in Richland County, Montana. Fidelity now holds approximately 57,000 net leasehold acres in Richland County, all acquired in the past year. This acreage position is a contiguous block immediately adjacent to the prolific Elm Coulee field. The company has spud its first of two appraisal wells. Depending upon results, a continuous drilling program utilizing one to two rigs is being planned. 
Other data points from the press release:
  • new wells represent a 44-percent improvement over ALL previous wells drilled by Fidelity
  • encouraging results in Stark Count, will add a second rig to this prospect
“We now have the acreage, drilling rigs and services as well as the organizational capability and experience to sustainably grow our Bakken production,” said Kent Wells, president and chief executive officer of Fidelity. “Our systematic approach of appraising and continuously improving our drilling and production operations is starting to pay dividends and we have only just begun.” 
The boom began almost five years ago

With the latest acreage acquisition, Fidelity holds a total of approximately 124,000 net leasehold acres in the Bakken area with plans to invest approximately $160 million in the region this year.

28-Room, New Building, Burlington Area; For Sale -- The Bakken, North Dakota, USA

Burlington, ND, area, new building for housing available for sale

Roger has a new building, 120 x 70; 28 dorm-style rooms
Considered "top-of-the-line" new building
Current parking pad is three (3) acres; possible to add  more

Burlington, ND, is about 5 miles west of Minot's city limits, on US Highway 2

If interested, e-mail at address provided.

Individual is a "local." Owns a business in the Bakken.

E-mail him at this address if interested:

Random Update on Fidelity (MDU) Permits Since 2010 -- The Bakken, North Dakota, USA

It's possible I missed a Fidelity permit or two, but unlikely. Data is from NDIC site, March 10, 2012.

"loc" -- location, permit only;
first number in red -- IP
"cum" -- cumulative production as of date provided
"conf" -- confidential
"DRL" -- six-month "tight hole" status elapsed; not completed; generally awaiting fracking
"F" -- flowing, no pump

Permits issued so far in 2012
  • 22224, loc, Fidelity, Kuntz 25-36H, Green River, Bakken, Stark County,
  • 22236, loc, Fidelity, Hansen 18-19H, Stanley, Bakken,
  • 22429, loc, Fidelity, Reynold 14-11H, Sanish, Bakken,
  • 22542, loc, Fidelity, Kevin 24-9H, Stanley, Bakken,
  • 22563, loc, Fidelity, Hukkanen 11-23H, Sanish, Bakken,
Permits issued in 2011
  • 20514, 1,145, Fidelity, Clifford 14-24H-25, Alger, Bakken, s5/11; t8/11; F; cum 51K 1/12;
  • 20593, 1,872 (boe), Fidelity, Edith 14-29H-32, Stanley, Bakken, s7/11; 5K (Jan 12)
  • 20694, conf, Fidelity, Parker 29-32H, Green River, Bakken, Stark County,
  • 20822, 1,061, Fidelity, TTT Ranch 23-27XH, Stanley, Bakken, s6/11; t11/11; F; cum 59K 1/12;
  • 20933, conf, Fidelity, Perdaems 15-22H, Zenith, Bakken, Stark County,
  • 21001, 675, Fidelity, Debbie 13-15H-22, Sanish, Bakken, s8/11; t11/11; F; ducm 33K 1/12;
  • 21166, 1,068 (boe), Fidelity, Urho 11-36H, Sanish, Bakken, 14K bbls (Nov 2011); 4K bbls (Dec 2011)
  • 21212, conf, Fidelity, Blessings 11-36H, Sanish, Bakken,
  • 21280, 1,165, 60K
  • 21317, conf, Fidelity, Laci 21-28-27H, Sanish, Bakken,
  • 21318, conf, Fidelity, Lance 21-22-27H, Sanish, Bakken,
  • 21381, 1,475 (boe), Fidelity, Dinwoodie 11-14H, Sanish, Bakken, 18K bbls (Jan 2012)
  • 21525, loc, Fidelity,
  • 21984, loc, Fidelity, Tuhy 22-15H, New Hradec, Bakken,
  • 22047, loc, Fidelity, Tuhy Homestead 14-23H, New Hradec, Bakken, Stark County,
  • 22122, loc, Fidelity, Emil 14-13H-24, Alger, Bakken,
Permits issued in 2010
  • 18647, 785, Fidelity, Anderson 11-13H, Bakken, Alger, s4/10; t9/10; cum 76K 1/12,
  • 19080, 877, Fidelity, Domaskin 19-30-29H, Bakken, Sanish; s7/10; t10/10; cum 105K 1/12,
  • 19081, 788, Fidelity, Lyn 19-20-29H, Bakken, Sanish, s8/10; t2/11; cum 93K 1/12,
  • 19264, 595, Fidelity, Kostelecky 31-6H, Bakken, Heart River, s10/10; t2/11; cum 56K 1/12, Stark County,
  • 19275, 193, Fidelity, Wock 14-11H, Bakken, Dutch Henry Butte, s12/10; t5/11; cum 48K 1/12; Stark County
  • 19277, 118, Fidelity, Oukrop 34-34H, Bakken, wildcat--> Heart River, s11/10; t2/11; cum 19K 1/12, Stark County,
  • 19471, 1,412, Fidelity, Behr 16-21H, Bakken, Stanley, s3/11; t6/11; cum 101K 1/12;
  • 19499, 1,264, Fidelity, TTT Ranch 33-28H, Bakken, Stanley, s5/11; t8/11; F; cum 124K 1/12;
  • 19685, conf, Fidelity, Kostelecky 5-8H, Heart River, Stark County,
  • 19688, loc, Fidelity, Wagner 4-9H, Zenith, Stark County,
  • 19698, conf, Fidelity, Kuchynski 12-1H, Wildcat, Stark County,
  • 19705, conf, Fidelity, Wanner 44-23H, 234 bbls (Jan 2012), Stark County,
  • 19727, PNC,
  • 19980, 1,319, Fidelity, Hill 31-30H, Stanely, Bakken; s4/11; t7/11; cum 135K 1/12,
  • 20029, DRL, Fidelity, Krables 22-15H, Stanley, Bakken, s2/11; 824 bbls (Jan 2012)
  • 20030, conf, Fidelity, Amundson 23-14H, Stanley, Bakken,
  • 20046, 804 (boe), Fidelity, Lori 18-19H, Stanley, Three Forks, s6/11; 12K bbls (Jan 2012)
According to a March 12, 2012, press release, MDU says that their recent wells represent a 44-percent improvement over ALL previous wells drilled by Fidelity.