Time For A Movie Interlude -- July 5, 2025

Locator: 48672MOVIE.

The Coen Brothers film rankings.

Link here.

Ethan Coen (by himself) and Honey Don't -- opens in theaters August 22, 2025; trailer here:

************************************
Iran: From July, 2025 -- The Next Decade

We're going to be overwhelmed by YouTube videos on this subject for the next year. Right, wrong, indifferent. Whether one agrees or disagrees with Trump's policies, these videos are going to be ubiquitous over the next well months. Victor Davis Hanson will probably have the best analysis.

How "the" war in Iran will completely cripple Russia. Link here.

Reminder:

Seven US B-2 bombers were used to strike Iranian nuclear facilities as part of Operation Midnight Hammer.

These bombers were tasked with delivering GBU-57 MOP bunker-busting bombs. The operation targeted the Fordow and Natanz nuclear enrichment facilities.

The U.S. Air Force has 19 B-2 Spirit stealth bombers in service. Initially, the U.S. had 21, but one was lost in a 2008 crash and another in 2022.In the operation against Iranian nuclear facilities, US B-2 bombers dropped a total of 14 GBU-57 "bunker buster" bombs. These bombs were used to target the Fordow enrichment facility and a second nuclear site. The operation, named "Midnight Hammer," also involved other precision-guided weapons like Tomahawk cruise missiles launched from submarines.

The Russian void in Iran will be filled by ... not China ... but Turkey, the US, and Saudi Arabia.

We're going to get a lot of "propaganda" that China will step in to fill the void (they won't). We will also get a lot of "propaganda" that Turkey will step in to fill the void. That's partly true, but Saudi Arabia and the US will be watching closely. The economic potential in the Mideast following the 35-minute US war on Iran will be huge for those countries rushing to fill the void left by Russia, and each will want a piece of that economic pie. My hunch: Saudi Arabia is most "needful" of that potential and won't let China step on the Muslims.

The Hormuz Strait:

• I generally disregard any analyst who raises this canard: Iran can shut down the Hormuz Strait.Fact: the Hormuz Strait has never been shut down and never will be by Iran.
• If, if, if, if --- the Hormuz Strait is shut down, "we" have bigger problems than oil in the Mideast.  
• any media outlet, particularly CNBC, that talks about the risk of the strait closing tells me that CNBC is not serious on this issue.
  

Russia’s Wealth Fund Drops Almost $6 Billion Month Over Month — At This Rate Of Cash Burn, Russia's Wealth Fund Is Zero -- Charles Kennedy — June 4, 2025

Locator: 48682RUSSIA.

Link here.

Russia’s National Wealth Fund, a rainy-day reserves fund, saw its liquid assets drop by the equivalent of nearly $6 billion in May, data from the Russian finance ministry showed on Wednesday. The National Wealth Fund had its readily available liquid assets drop by $5.75 billion (453.8 billion Russian rubles) in May, and the total value dropped to $35.5 billion (2.8 trillion rubles). The National Wealth Fund’s liquid assets have plunged by 68% since the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Bloomberg has estimated.

At this rate of cash burn, the NWF will be depleted by the end of this year (2025).

Everything suggests Putin is betting the entire country on his obsession with Ukraine. One truly has to ask whether he is sane by the usual hallmarks of sanity.

National Wealth Fund (NWF) Vs Russia's foreign exchange reserves:

In Russia, the National Wealth Fund (NWF) and foreign exchange reserves serve different but complementary economic purposes. Here’s a breakdown of the key differences:

1. Purpose

• National Wealth Fund (NWF): 
• Designed as a sovereign wealth fund to support long-term fiscal stability, fund budget deficits, and support pensions. 
• It’s essentially a savings fund from oil and gas revenues. 
• Foreign Reserves (Central Bank reserves): 
• Managed by the Central Bank of Russia, these are held to stabilize the ruble, manage balance of payments, and back up monetary policy. 
• Think of it as Russia’s rainy-day fund for defending the currency and managing external debt.

2. Management

• NWF: 
• Managed by the Russian Ministry of Finance.
• Foreign Reserves: 
• Managed by the Central Bank of Russia independently from the government.

3. Composition

• NWF: 
• Composed mainly of oil and gas revenues, and investments (in foreign currencies, gold, and sometimes domestic projects). 
• After 2022 sanctions, it’s increasingly held in Chinese yuan, gold, and ruble assets. 
• Foreign Reserves: 
• Includes a broader basket of assets: 
• Foreign currencies (USD, EUR, yuan, etc.) 
• Gold 
• Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) 
• MF reserve positions
• Highly liquid foreign government bonds 

4. Liquidity and Use

• NWF: 
• Can be tapped by the government to cover budget deficits. 
• Can invest in domestic projects (e.g., infrastructure, state companies). 
• More political discretion in its use. 
• Foreign Reserves
• Used for currency interventions to stabilize the ruble.
• Supports monetary and financial stability. • Not usually used directly for government spending. 

5. Size (as of mid-2024 estimates) 

• NWF: Around $148 billion (equivalent), though a portion is illiquid. 
• Foreign Reserves: Around $580 billion, though about half were frozen by Western sanctions after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022.

NWF: note mid-2024 estimate and May, 2025, estimate.

    mid-2024: $148 billion
    May, 2025: $35.5 billion (76% of it value one year earlier)

Russia Foreign Exchange Reserves -- April, 2025, Data -- May 23, 2025

Locator: 48663RUSSIA.

Link here.

Russia Oil Exports To China Jump -- April 18, 2025

Locator: 48503RUSSIA.

Link here. 

Link here: Russia foreign exchange reserves.

What's Wrong With This Chart? Chart Of The Day -- April 17, 2025

Locator: 48494RUSSIA.

Link here: Russia foreign exchange reserves.

Link here: Saudi's chart -- posted April 30, 2025 -- usually posts four to six weeks after Russia posts.

 

**********************
The Book Page

I'm re-reading Eric H. Cline's 1177 BC: The Year Civilization Collapsed, c. 2021. It's an incredibly interesting and well-written book. I love it. But the author struggles to make the book relevant to current events no matter how hard he tries. He argues that it's not a question of "if" but "when" civilization collapses again.

It's truly amazing. He can't think of anything -- he gives possibilities like Covid-19 and ... 

But the only thing I can think that would end civilization as we know it -- short of a nuclear war -- is a global financial collapse, and I think that's very, very possible.

********************************
Life Is Bittersweet -- So Many Memories

I'm watching Sophia and her soccer team practicing this evening, on a soccer field near Grapevine Lake, north Texas. Brings back many memories.

I've been participating in or watching six generations of youngsters playing sports over the past 70 years. Amazing. And everything seems just as if it were yesterday.

The first generation: watching Phil Jackson playing basketball in the 1960s at Williston High School, Williston, ND.

The second generation: my generation -- football, basketball, wrestling, baseball. And though I never saw her play, I think of her often, my first love who died too soon. And, the love of my life, my wife,who I also never saw play, but who talks about how much she loved playing first base, softball. It's fun to imagine watching her. I wish I had known her from first grade on.

Third generation: our two daughters, playing soccer and hockey in Europe when we were assigned to Germany, England, Turkey (US Air Force -- overseas for thirteen consecutive years and then a couple of years in Alabama).

Fourth generation: our two older granddaughters -- water polo and soccer. The younger of the two, as a captain of the team, led her soccer team to a state championship title in the huge state of Texas. Not a trivial accomplishment.

Fifth generation: now watching Sophia start her athletic career -- soccer, long distance running, and Brazilian jiu-jitsu. 

And, now the sixth generation: our five-year-old grandsons (twins) learning to rock climb. 

In the big scheme of things, measured over decades, our five grandchildren would represent but one generation, but as a grandparent, it's as if there are three generations (and for some grandparents, maybe even more).

And you watch them, and you wonder where they will end up. And the number of children involved; and, the number of coaches. It's truly amazing.

Foreign Exchange Reserves -- Russia, Saudi Arabia -- March 21, 2025

Locator: 48546SAUDI.

Russia: link here.

Saudi: link here.

Thursday, March 20, 2025

Locator: 48535B.

Gold: hit a new record high -- $3,051.96. 

Copper: hits a record; hits $10,000 in rally fueled by Trump's tariff threats.

China grid: China accelerates grid spending to absorb deluge of solar power.

Russia's oil price: drops 24% below budget target. Link here.

Most wanted:

• under Biden's administration, the FBI captured a total of four on the "Most Wanted" list
• under Trump, the FBI has already captured three on the "Most Wanted" list; new FBI director has been in office less than one full month

March Madness: Texas falls to Xavier in the final play-in game last night. My NCAA "March Madness" bracket has already crashed.

• first round, all 64 teams playing: today and tomorrow

Pemex: nationalized, again? Link here. 

In fact, it appears the entire Mexican energy sector -- fossil fuel, electricity, renewable energy -- has been nationalized. But I may have lost something in translation. 

California headlines:

• PSX plans to shut down it's refinery in Los Angeles this year; link here;
• this one refinery supplies 10% of the gasoline on which the state relies; ten percent;
  
• costly health care expansion -- for uninsured criminals -- worsens California's chronic budget deficit;
• LA city budget shortfall grows to nearly $1 billion, with layoffs "nearly inevitable";
• California's Medicaid (Medi-Cal) budget shortfall: $6.2 billion;
• University of California system begins hiring freeze amid threats to budget;
• "California's bullet train may deserve a mercy killing" -- the headline seems to be an op-ed but it's being reported by a most prestigious and credible source, CalMatters.
• Governor Newsom suggests the project connecting Sacramento to San Diego simply isn't going to happen; will now concentrate on that all-important, highly traveled corridor from Merced to Bakersfield
• Expedia shows no flights between these two cities

Sixth industrial revolution: link here. 

Sixth industrial revolution, link here:

**************************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $67.16.

New wells:

• Friday, March 21, 2025: 52 for the month, 167 for the quarter, 167 for the year,
• None.
• Thursday, March 20, 2025: 52 for the month, 167 for the quarter, 167 for the year,
• 41022, conf, CLR, Alfsvaag Federal 8-31H, 
• 40156, conf, Hess, EN-Schroeder-157-94-1102H-3,

RBN Energy: Mexico hoping for boom in LNG exports, but major hurdles remain.

Mexico’s LNG sector has seen notable advancements in the past year, including new export project announcements and strategic investments. But many of the proposed LNG projects require extensive pipeline buildouts — no easy task south of the border and perhaps the biggest impediment most of the export projects face. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll look at where things stand with Mexico’s LNG sector and the export projects under development.

Saudi Arabia Foreign Exchange Reserves -- January 12, 2025

Locator: 44666SAUDI.

Link here.

Reserve Assets -- Saudi Arabia, Russia -- December 24, 2024

Locator: 44522SAUDI.

 

Link here.

Link here.

Russia. Link here.

Saudi, September, 2024, link here:

Foreign Exchange Reserves In Russia And Saudi -- November, 2024

Locator: 48750SAUDI.

Russia. Link here.

Saudi, September, 2024, link here:

Foreign Exchange Reserves In Russia And Saudi -- September, 2024

Locator: 48614SAUDI.

Link here.

Saudi, August, 2024, link here:

Saudi Arabia Foreign Exchange Reserves -- September 5, 2024

Locator: 48533SAUDI.

Link here.

Link here.

Foreign Exchange Reserves -- Saudi Arabia -- Russia -- August 13, 2024

Locator: 48392SAUDI.

Link here. 

Link here.

Russian Foreign Exchange Reservies -- August 8, 2024

Locator: 48364SAUDI.

Tag: foreign exchange reserves Saudi Russia

Russian data.

Saudi Arabian, Russian Foreign Exchange Reserves -- April, 2024, Data

Locator: 47803SAUDIRUSSIA.

Link here. 

Link here.

Russia Foreign Exchange Reserves -- April, 2024, Data

Locator: 47169RUSSIA.

Link here.

Russia Foreign Exchange Reserves Corrected / Updated -- April 7, 2024

Locator: 46945RUSSIA.

Pointing out things you won't see reported anywhere else. LOL.

Posted March 18, 2024:

Now, April 7, 2024, the site has been updated:

I don't recall having seen this ever before.

Russia Foreign Exchange Reserves -- March, 2024

Locator: 46800RUSSIA.

Link here. 

TGIF -- A Gaggle Of Wells Coming Off Confidential List; The Market? Higher For Longer -- February 16, 2024

Locator: 46833ECON.

Wow, another beautiful day in north Texas, although it will be cooler over the weekend.

We have a four-day weekend, so we'll be going down to San Antonio, simply for a road trip.

The gap widens between investors and savers, link here: 

PPI: I see PPI came in "higher than expected." LOL. As with the CPI, it did not come in higher than expected, it "came in higher than hoped." LOL.

• higher for longer;
• the gap widens between the well-off and the middle class
• the gap widens between the homeowners and the home buyers
• the gap widens between investors and savers, but at least savers are getting a bit more for their money
• the gap widens between Wall Street and Main Street
• the gap widens between Main Street and Oak Street
• the gap rises between those who can raise their prices and those who cannot.
  

Another buying opportunity, although that may not last. The Dow is only down only 89 points and well off its lows. 

PPI: definition and explanation at this link. Bottom line:

• CPI: retail inflation; the inflation you and I see
• PPI: wholesale inflation: the inflation the Heinz CEO sees, and which he said he won't pass on to consumer (wink, wink)

Yesterday I wrote:

 Before that, on December 22, 2024:

My theme continues to be: Warren Buffett has set the S&P 500 as the bar against which he is to be "rated / judged." The S&P 500 -- are you kidding me? That's "simply the market."  That's why I keep posting "comparison" charts.

Well, someone -- and that someone is a very, very credible analyst, has just written about the same thing. Link here. 

Fed: Atlanta Fed president interview on CNBC at 10:04 a..m. -- he telegraphed as clearly as he could: "I don't see any rate cuts in 2024." In fact, I think he almost slipped and almost said that: "no rate cuts in 2024." The question is not "when will you start cutting" but will you cut in 2024? 

The "old" word with regard to inflation was "transitory." No more. If inflation is defined a > 2.0%.

The "new" word is "immediately."

As in a direct quote: "I don't see cutting rates immediately." 

The Fed has clearly stated they won't see "2%" this year -- and so "immediately" means one year.

The Atlanta Fed president said we're not cutting rates immediately, which means no rate cuts this year, though publicly he says he expects two rate cuts this year (50 basis points; the Fed dot plot shows three rate cuts, so the Atlanta Fed president sees much less urgency than the Fed in general

He didn't say it, but the real question is why do we need a rate cut at all?

Meanwhile, the stock market doesn't care, link here:

Lilly: some analysts now suggest this weight-loss drug company could join the "mile-high club."

Doofus of the week: Tucker Carlson.

Russia cash, link here: 

************************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI:

Tuesday, February 20, 2024: 50 for the month; 109 for the quarter, 109 for the year
39994, conf, CLR, Ransom 11-30H2,

Monday, February 19, 2024: 49 for the month; 108 for the quarter, 108 for the year
39993, conf, CLR, Ransom 10-30H

Sunday, February 18, 2024: 48 for the month; 107 for the quarter, 107 for the year
39619, conf, Whiting, DE YK Federal 12-33H
39618, conf, Whiting, DE YK Federal  12-33-2TFH,
39069, conf, Whiting, Safely Federal 32-7-2H,
39068, conf, Whiting, Safely Federal 32-7H
38303, conf, Whiting, Bigfoot LE 23-11 9H,
37705, conf, SOGC (Sinclair), Bighorn 3-6H,

Saturday, February 17, 2024: 42 for the month; 101 for the quarter, 101 for the year
39992, conf, CLR, Omlid 13-19H,

Friday, February 16, 2024: 41 for the month; 100 for the quarter, 100 for the year
39115, conf, Hess, EN-Hegland-LW-155-94-0508H-1, 

RBN Energy: who are the winners and losers with Biden's LNG permitting pause? The short answer? Russia and Iran. Terrorists and murderers keep getting rewarded. At least that's my takeaway.

The Biden administration’s recently announced decision to pause further action on new LNG export permits for at least several months sent shockwaves through the industry and shook up expectations regarding which projects will be hurt by — or benefit from — the pause. As we’ll discuss in today’s RBN blog, the decision is likely to put a number of Gulf Coast LNG export projects (one of them a real giant) in limbo, set back a Mexican project that would depend on Permian and Eagle Ford gas, and boost a couple of projects up in Canada. Oh, and there’s this: The pause also may help two avowed enemies of the U.S.: Russia and Iran.

Oil Money -- Russia, Saudi Arabia -- December, 2023

Locator: 46742SAUDI.

Russia:

Saudi Arabia: