TGIF -- A Gaggle Of Wells Coming Off Confidential List; The Market? Higher For Longer -- February 16, 2024

Locator: 46833ECON.

Wow, another beautiful day in north Texas, although it will be cooler over the weekend.

We have a four-day weekend, so we'll be going down to San Antonio, simply for a road trip.

The gap widens between investors and savers, link here: 

PPI: I see PPI came in "higher than expected." LOL. As with the CPI, it did not come in higher than expected, it "came in higher than hoped." LOL.

• higher for longer;
• the gap widens between the well-off and the middle class
• the gap widens between the homeowners and the home buyers
• the gap widens between investors and savers, but at least savers are getting a bit more for their money
• the gap widens between Wall Street and Main Street
• the gap widens between Main Street and Oak Street
• the gap rises between those who can raise their prices and those who cannot.
  

Another buying opportunity, although that may not last. The Dow is only down only 89 points and well off its lows. 

PPI: definition and explanation at this link. Bottom line:

• CPI: retail inflation; the inflation you and I see
• PPI: wholesale inflation: the inflation the Heinz CEO sees, and which he said he won't pass on to consumer (wink, wink)

Yesterday I wrote:

 Before that, on December 22, 2024:

My theme continues to be: Warren Buffett has set the S&P 500 as the bar against which he is to be "rated / judged." The S&P 500 -- are you kidding me? That's "simply the market."  That's why I keep posting "comparison" charts.

Well, someone -- and that someone is a very, very credible analyst, has just written about the same thing. Link here. 

Fed: Atlanta Fed president interview on CNBC at 10:04 a..m. -- he telegraphed as clearly as he could: "I don't see any rate cuts in 2024." In fact, I think he almost slipped and almost said that: "no rate cuts in 2024." The question is not "when will you start cutting" but will you cut in 2024? 

The "old" word with regard to inflation was "transitory." No more. If inflation is defined a > 2.0%.

The "new" word is "immediately."

As in a direct quote: "I don't see cutting rates immediately." 

The Fed has clearly stated they won't see "2%" this year -- and so "immediately" means one year.

The Atlanta Fed president said we're not cutting rates immediately, which means no rate cuts this year, though publicly he says he expects two rate cuts this year (50 basis points; the Fed dot plot shows three rate cuts, so the Atlanta Fed president sees much less urgency than the Fed in general

He didn't say it, but the real question is why do we need a rate cut at all?

Meanwhile, the stock market doesn't care, link here:

Lilly: some analysts now suggest this weight-loss drug company could join the "mile-high club."

Doofus of the week: Tucker Carlson.

Russia cash, link here: 

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Back to the Bakken

WTI:

Tuesday, February 20, 2024: 50 for the month; 109 for the quarter, 109 for the year
39994, conf, CLR, Ransom 11-30H2,

Monday, February 19, 2024: 49 for the month; 108 for the quarter, 108 for the year
39993, conf, CLR, Ransom 10-30H

Sunday, February 18, 2024: 48 for the month; 107 for the quarter, 107 for the year
39619, conf, Whiting, DE YK Federal 12-33H
39618, conf, Whiting, DE YK Federal  12-33-2TFH,
39069, conf, Whiting, Safely Federal 32-7-2H,
39068, conf, Whiting, Safely Federal 32-7H
38303, conf, Whiting, Bigfoot LE 23-11 9H,
37705, conf, SOGC (Sinclair), Bighorn 3-6H,

Saturday, February 17, 2024: 42 for the month; 101 for the quarter, 101 for the year
39992, conf, CLR, Omlid 13-19H,

Friday, February 16, 2024: 41 for the month; 100 for the quarter, 100 for the year
39115, conf, Hess, EN-Hegland-LW-155-94-0508H-1, 

RBN Energy: who are the winners and losers with Biden's LNG permitting pause? The short answer? Russia and Iran. Terrorists and murderers keep getting rewarded. At least that's my takeaway.

The Biden administration’s recently announced decision to pause further action on new LNG export permits for at least several months sent shockwaves through the industry and shook up expectations regarding which projects will be hurt by — or benefit from — the pause. As we’ll discuss in today’s RBN blog, the decision is likely to put a number of Gulf Coast LNG export projects (one of them a real giant) in limbo, set back a Mexican project that would depend on Permian and Eagle Ford gas, and boost a couple of projects up in Canada. Oh, and there’s this: The pause also may help two avowed enemies of the U.S.: Russia and Iran.