Sunday, December 13, 2015

Reason #23 Why I Love To Blog -- Reading My Own Blog -- December 23, 2015; Ledecky Sets New All-Time Record In The 1000-Yard Freestyle

At the sidebar at the right, at the very, very bottom, about as far down as you can go before you hit Mexico, you will see the last link, under the section called "Bored?"

I had not visited the one link in that section for some time. Wow, wow, wow. A must read. A travelogue from Lisa on her recent cross-country trip. If you read the intro and you are from North Dakota you will be hooked. But if you start to sense disappointment by paragraph 3, best martini, do not give up. At least skip ahead to paragraph 5.

Thank you. That is all. 

The Ledecky Page

First sub-9:00 1000 free in history. SwmSwam is reporting:
Katie Ledecky has become the first woman ever under nine minutes in the 1000 yard freestyle, going 8:59.65 at the Nation’s Capital Swim Club Invite Sunday.
Ledecky popped the time at the 2015 NCAP meet hosted at the University of Maryland, shattering the American record in savage fashion.
In an already star-studded career, this is among Ledecky’s best swims ever relative to the rest of history in the event. The previous American record was a 9:10.77 set by Katie Hoff in 2007, meaning Ledecky is a full 11 seconds faster than anyone else in history.
Ledecky previously approached that record, going 9:11.31 in November of 2014, but her swim today still stands up as a drop of 11.66 seconds en route to the fastest swim in history.
Hoff’s time was also the 17-18 National Age Group record, so that mark transfers to Ledecky’s trophy case as well. Ledecky also now holds the U.S. Open record, with Hoff’s 9:10.77 standing as all three records since 2007.
Ledecky’s splits ranged from 26.8 to 27.5, with twin 25.5s bookending the swim on the opening and closing 50s. Maybe most impressive was that she was out in 4:30.90 to the 500 and actually negative split the race, coming home in 4:28.75 over the final 500 yards.
As individual 500s, those would rank as the 8th and 5th fastest 500 yard freestyles in history. Nobody besides Ledecky herself has swum a 500 free faster than 4:28.75, and she did it immediately after swimming a 4:30.90.
Earlier in the meet, Ledecky had put up the fourth-fastest 200 free of all-time at 1:41.04, posted a 4:01.69 in the 400 IM and won the 500 free in 4:28.17.

Added December 15, 2015

The video of the post-race interview with Katie after the Ledecky 1,000-yard freestyle under 9:00 minutes was just posted on YouTube. Here is the video of the race itself.

Statoil Reports A Typical Statoil Well; EOG/XTO With Seven More DUCs: 7/8 Bakken Wells Not Completed -- December 13, 2015

Monday, December 14, 2015
  • 24096, 3,148, Statoil, Jay 24-13F 1H-R, Banks, true vertical depth of 11,137 feet; 15 - 20' flare; gas reached upwards of 8,000 units; t10/15; cum 19K 10/15;
  • 30788, SI/NC, XTO, Rita 44X-34D, Tobacco Garden, no production data,
  • 30903, SI/NC, EOG, Austin 72-1807H, Parshall, no production data,
Sunday, December 13, 2015
  • 30978, SI/NC, EOG, Van Hook 79-15H,  Parshall, no production data,
  • 31146, SI/NC, XTO, Ryan 14X-9B, Siverston, no production data,
  • 30902, SI/NC, EOG, Austin 73-1807H, Parshall, no production data,
Saturday, December 12, 2015
  • 30979, SI/NC, EOG, Van Hook 78-15H, Parshall, no production data,
  • 30901, SI/NC, EOG, Austin 84-1807H, Parshall, no production data,

For newbies, when you think about these DUCs, remember this: back in April, 2015, 24/7 Wall Street was reporting that nationwide -- the US -- the shale community (mostly the Eagle Ford, the Bakken, and the Permian) was adding 350,000 bbls of oil per day (bopd) -- again, that's 350,000 bbls per day -- "underground storage" in the form of DUCs -- drilled to depth, but not fracked. At that time, and probably still true today, 350,000 bopd exceeds the amount Libya is producing or getting to market. Generally oil that gets to market is being refined within a few weeks or going into storage for refining as soon as possible. So much of that 350,000 bopd of oil coming out of Libya is actually being consumed. But oil stored in DUCs is not even close to being used, and it is (or at least, was) accumulating at the rate of over 300,000 bopd.

To me, that seems incomprehensible, and I may be misreading something, or making wrong assumptions, but if it is accurate ... it seems it will take awhile to deplete all that DUC oil, much less use up the excess that OPEC is bringing to market every day. 

365 x 300 = 100,000 thousand bbls every year from shale being stored underground. One hundred million bbls every year. Global demand: about one hundred million bbls daily.

This was back in April, 2015:
The pullback is likely due to a report from Bloomberg Thursday that claimed more than 4,700 drilled wells in the United States have not been completed while oil producers wait for prices to rise again. More than 1,500 wells in the Permian Basin, 1,250 wells in the Eagle Ford and 632 wells in the Bakken have been drilled but not completed.
632 Bakken DUCs then? Now it's around 1,000.

The War Natural Gas Is Waging On Coal

It looks like the real "war on coal" is the one being waged by natural gas. Don sent me this a couple of days ago:
The price of natural gas delivered to Northern Border at Watford City is down $0.05 to $1.65/MCF, from the most recent Director's Cut (December 9, 2015).
The 2014 MDU annual report says the average coast of coal per MMbtu, including freight was $1.74 per MMbtus.
Natural gas mcf to btus conversion can be done at this site

Could We Actually See US Crude Oil Being Exported Beginning In 2016? -- December 13, 2015

This is moving along much, much faster than I ever expected, but then I never expected Bakken oil to trade at $27/bbl and still maintain near record production. Google us oil export. Too many articles to link, so this one Bloomberg article will be the proxy for all of them: Senators Close in on Oil-Export Deal Amid Tax-Break Talks.
Senate negotiators are nearing a deal to allow unfettered U.S. crude oil exports for the first time in 40 years, though differences remain on renewable-energy tax credits that Democrats are demanding in return.
While any agreement could still collapse in the coming days -- the deal faces opposition in the House -- lawmakers are weighing the extension of solar and wind tax credits for as long as five years in exchange for lifting the crude-export restrictions, which were established to counter the energy shortages of the 1970s.
Tax breaks are part of the discussion, though lawmakers are still negotiating the length of wind- and solar-energy tax extensions and whether they should be phased out, said a Senate Democratic leadership aide.
If agreed to and approved by Congress, repeal of the nation’s ban on most crude oil exports would mark the most significant shift in U.S. oil policy in more than a generation. Repeal, benefiting oil producers including ConocoPhillips, Hess Corp. and Continental Resources Inc., would come at a time when the industry is cutting jobs to deal with a global glut in crude oil and the lowest prices in seven years.
Talks for a deal are under way as envoys from 195 nations reached an agreement to limit fossil-fuel pollution and curb the effects of climate change.
It will be interesting if Congress agrees to extending tax cuts for intermittent energy. My hunch is they do, if they get the rest. President Obama would need that "cover" (tax credits for intermittent energy) if he were to go along with this.

Having just come from the global warming conference in Paris, I don't know how Obama could approve US oil exports which will only encourage more fossil fuel use. This will be very interesting to watch.

But what a great poll. My hunch is he will veto the bill unless Reid, Pelosi, Schumer let him know that the veto will be overridden, and even still, he made veto the bill, sticking to his principles, and requiring Congress to override the veto.

So, the poll:

Will President Obama allow the US to export crude oil beginning in 2016?
  • yes
  • no
  • yes, with lots of conditions including tax credits for wind/solar
US Crude Oil Exports

If the US were to allow unfettered US crude oil exports, this would finally make oil a true commodity (unless I'm missing something). The US is the last cartel, not allowing exports (with minor exceptions). OPEC is no longer a cartel, allowing its members to produce as much as they want and to sell their oil wherever they can find a buyer.

If the US were to allow unfettered US crude oil exports, we might finally get to see how much oil Saudi Arabia could produce.