Tuesday, April 7, 2015

Williams County Approves $500 Million Shopping Hub For Williston, North Dakota -- April 7, 2015


Wow. Wow.

Wow. Wow. Wow.

I've been waiting for this news all day, and where do I find it? At Rigzone of all places. Rigzone is reporting: Oil-Rich North Dakota County OKs $500M Shopping Hub.
One of North Dakota's largest oil-producing counties has approved a $500 million development with new stores, apartments and an indoor water park.
The project shows that even with a 50 percent drop in crude oil prices since last summer, developers see long-term potential in building amenities to serve the state's oil counties, which the U.S. Census Bureau has ranked as one of the country's fastest-growing regions for the past four years.
The Williams County Board of Commissioners voted 3-2 on Tuesday to approve a zoning variance for Switzerland-based developer Stropiq LLC to build the roughly 200-acre Williston Crossing development.
Stropiq plans to build, in four phases, 1 million square feet of retail space; 900 apartments, townhouses and condominiums; 600,000 square feet of office space; four hotels; and an indoor water park.
"There are plenty of smaller communities with many more retail options," said Stropiq's Terry Olin. "There's no reason there shouldn't be a shopping center here."
Williston, the Williams County seat, is the capital of North Dakota's oil boom and the project will be located just north of the city line. Stropiq's main pitch for the commissioners' blessing was the lack of current retail options in the Williston region, with Walmart and a 1950s-era JCPenney offering the best non-oilfield clothes shopping.

How Much Longer Can OPEC Hold Out? -- April 7, 2015


Later, 10:29 p.m. CT: I wrote the following earlier this evening but put it in draft status; I didn't really want to post it. But then a bit later, Reuters/Rigzone had this article: Saudi's Naimi Says Ready To Help Improve Oil Prices, But Not Alone.
Saudi Arabia's oil minister Ali al-Naimi said on Tuesday that the kingdom stood ready to "improve" prices but only if other producers outside of OPEC joined the effort.
Naimi said Saudi Arabia had pumped around 10.3 million barrels per day (bpd) in March, marking an increase from previous months. He did not say why output had risen.
Naimi also said he expected oil prices that have languished near six-year lows to improve in the near future. Oil prices extended gains late on Tuesday as traders took Naimi's comments as sign he may be open to renewed talks with producers like Russia and Mexico over curbing production in order to revive prices.
U.S. crude rose 3.5 percent to close at $53.98 a barrel, near it's highest this year.
"The kingdom is still ready to help bring back stability to the market and improve prices in a reasonable and suitable manner, but with the participation of the main producing and exporting countries and based on clear principles and high transparency, so the kingdom or the Gulf countries or OPEC countries do not shoulder that alone," he said at a Saudi economics conference.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) agreed to maintain production at its meeting last November, despite pressure to curb output and stabilize sliding prices, after discussions with Russia and Mexico ended without action.
It doesn't take a rocket scientist to read between the lines. It's getting expensive to fight ISIS and subsidize the Palestinians at the same time. And then there's Iran to worry about.

Original Post
For the archives: how much longer can OPEC hold out?

I'm posting the link just for the archives. There is way too much to say.

I'm still trying to figure out Saudi Arabia's reasoning: is it better to sell 1,000 bbls of oil for $100 or 2,000 bbls of oil for $50? The profits from 1,000 bbls at $100 is much greater than the profit from 2,000 bbls of oil for $50.

Remember: it's all about margins. Whether Saudi sells their oil for $100 or $50, the cost of production remains the same. If their production costs are $10/bbl, the margin for $50-oil is $40/bbl; at $100-oil, it's $90 (more than double the $40/bbl margin). 1,000 x 90 = $90,000; 2,000 x 40 = $80,000.

In addition to margins, it costs less to ship 1,000 bbls than 2,000 bbls.

In addition to margins and transportation costs, Saudi would be saving 1,000 bbls of its national resource at $100-oil in this example.

Just idle chatter. Not very sophisticated. See disclaimer and purpose of the blog.

Idle Chatter -- Just A Bit Of Light-Hearted Humor -- April 7, 2015

Last week, Governor Jerry Brown stood on a spot in the Sierra Nevada with no snow and outlined first-ever state-wide water rationing rules.

Today, it is being tweeted:

Photo: Snow seen in exact spot in California's Sierra Nevada where Gov. Jerry Brown stood last week without snow - @TerryMcSweeney ... and here's the photo:

This photo and the sequence of events tells me two things:
  • God has a sense of humor
  • God is not a democrat (or at least he's not a fan of Governor Jerry Brown)
Rumor has it that the Kennedys are booking airline reservations to take the kids and grandkids out to California to see the snow before it's too late. 

Reason #2871 Why I Love To Blog -- April 7, 2015

I've been blogging on the Bakken since 2007; this iteration began in 2009/2010. Periodically I have posted notes about the relationship between WTI and Brent. Marcellus.com is reporting a nice summary:
Brent’s open interest on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), or the number of outstanding contracts held by market players, increased to 1.99 million lots as of the end of March. That compared with 1.72 million lots for crude futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
For a long time, Nymex’s West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures had been the leading benchmark, given the United States’ position as the world’s biggest consumer, importer and trader of crude oil. That changed this decade with the shale boom, which turned the U.S. into one of the world’s top producers and reduced its need to import. At the same time, a U.S. ban on exporting crude has meant the country’s oil is trapped in storage tanks at home. That has pulled WTI prices down to levels that do not reflect global markets and diminished its hedging allure for traders.
In late 2014, Brent’s open interest overtook that of U.S crude futures. In the same year, Brent’s weighting in several commodities indexes increased at the expense of WTI. WTI had been popular with financial players, but this seems to be also changing with more hedge funds likely turning to Brent.
This is a great little summary to help newbies understand the relationship between WTI and Brent.

Two Stories That Probably Didn't Need To Be Printed -- April 7, 2015

I may have to dredge up the old "Geico Award" nominations -- it must have been a slow news day ....

First, Bakken.com is reporting that frack industry is slowing down:
U.S. sand mines, including 63 in Wisconsin and six in Minnesota, are projected to ship significantly less sand to oil drillers in 2015, compared with last year, when companies like Fairmount Santrol, U.S. Silica and Superior Silica Sands set production records.
This should please the environmentalists. 


Second, Newsok is reporting: more trains crossing Nebraska, Iowa this spring.
The number of trains carrying at least a million gallons of volatile crude oil across Nebraska and Iowa surged this spring to as many as 30 a week.
BNSF railroad has told emergency management officials in both states that it is now hauling 20 to 30 trains per week, on average, loaded with oil from North Dakota's Bakken region through the area.
That's up significantly from last summer when federal regulators began requiring railroads to notify state officials about trains carrying at least 1 million gallons of oil.
Last summer, BNSF initially reported an average of three trains a week that crossed the northwest corner of Iowa before continuing south into Nebraska. In January, the railroad reported hauling about a dozen trains a week through eastern Nebraska.
Let's see ... Nebraska blocked the Keystone XL and Iowa is blocking a proposed regional pipeline -- what did they expect?

American Eagle Energy: 4Q14 Results And Liquidity Statement -- April 7, 2015

American Eagle Energy press release - 4Q14 results and liquidity update.

  • Production of 238,140 barrels of oil equivalent, or an average of 2,588 boepd;
    • year-over-year increase of 38% from 1,879 boepd(172,829 boe)
    • sequential quarterly increase of 18% from 2,193 boepd (201,774 boe)
  • Fourth quarter 2014 oil and gas sales of $14.5 million;
    • a year-over-year increase of 7%
    • a sequential quarterly decrease of 15%
  • Adjusted EBITDA of $7.9 million;
  • Adjusted Cash Flow of $3.1 million;
  • Adjusted Loss of $7.0 million or $0.23 per diluted share; and
  • Negative working capital of $9 million that includes cash of $19 million as of February 28, 2015.
Also, of note:
LOE for the quarter ended December 31, 2014 was $25.00 per BOE, which was significantly elevated from previous periods due to year-end adjustments and utilization of higher cost submersible pumps.  
As of December 31, 2014, American Eagle had $25.9 million in cash, $175.0 million total debt outstanding, comprised solely of the bonds that the Company sold in August 2014, and 30.4 million shares of common stock outstanding. American Eagle ended the fourth quarter of 2014 with $13.6 million of negative working capital. Current assets consisted primarily of $25.9 million in cash and $9.5 million in receivables. Current liabilities consisted primarily of $42.4 million in accounts payable and accruals and $6.6 million in accrued interest.
As of February 28, 2015, the Company estimates that it had approximately $9 million of negative working capital. Current assets consisted primarily of approximately $19 million in cash and approximately $12 million in receivables. Current liabilities consisted primarily of approximately $30 million in accounts payable and accruals and approximately $9.8 million in accrued interest.
From Yahoo!In-Play today: American Eagle Energy announces Forbearance Agreement:
  • The Company entered into a Forbearance Agreement with four holders, who collectively own or manage in excess of 50% (face amount) of the August Notes
  • The Company tendered the sum of $4.0 million as a partial interest payment to U.S. Bank National Association.
  • Co issued the August Notes to the holders thereof, some of whom are members of the Ad Hoc Group, which partial interest payment left the Company in default as to approximately $5.8 million of unpaid interest as of April 1, 2015
  • Co received a letter from SunTrust Bank, as control agent, in respect of an August 27, 2015.  SunTrust Bank provided notice of its resignation as control agent under that Intercreditor Agreement, which resignation is to become effective on May 1, 2015, unless SunTrust Bank is replaced in that role earlier; 
  • Co received a letter from SunTrust Bank, in which SunTrust Bank gave the Company notice of an Event of Default thereunder -- specifically, the Company's failure to have paid the above-referenced interest payment in full, rather than in part.
American Eagle Energy has about 50,000 acres in northwest North Dakota; on the edge of the Bakken.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment or financial decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Vote Today -- April 7, 2015

Background is here.

The zoning committee on the Williams County Commission is supposed to vote tonight on this $500 million project. Approved! See this post.

Also, aren't they voting in Chicago today for the old mayor or a new mayor? -- it looks like the incumbent will win/won.

Can Hardly Wait!

SeekingAlpha is reporting:

  • Apple is fairly new to the dividend game as the dividend was reinstated in the summer of 2012D
  • dividends have grown by 11% annually since the reintroduction
  • expect a dividend increase of 15% later in April
The writer writes:
If we use the average analyst estimate of EPS for the current fiscal year of $8.64 as a basis and apply a conservative payout ratio of 25%, we get an annual dividend of $2.16 and a quarterly dividend of $0.54 per share. That would translate into a raise of 14.9%.
It will be interesting to see how close he comes.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.

Is This April? Quick -- Call The Kennedys

The Bismarck Tribune is reporting:
Wintry weather moving across North Dakota this week gave residents of Kenmare a post-Easter surprise.
Residents of the northwestern community woke up Monday to find 14 inches of snow on the ground.
National Weather Service officials say the town was in the path of a narrow band of heavy snowfall that passed through late Sunday and early Monday. They say it's an unusual event and doesn't really have an explanation.
Meanwhile, Out Our Backdoor

This morning I took the youngest granddaughter for a stroller ride. It's hard to believe that despite being surrounded by all this 21st century development, there's a wonderful creek -- almost right outside our back door. 

The picture may not do it justice, but it's a beautiful creek.

In 70 million years, it could be another Grand Canyon.

Zacks Recaps The Week's Top Five Energy Stories -- April 7, 2015

Link here.

Here are three of the top five:

KMI to build more crude oil storage.
Houston, TX-based oil and gas pipeline company Kinder Morgan Inc. announced a equally owned joint venture with Canada’s Keyera Corp. to build a new crude oil storage terminal in Edmonton, Alberta.
... 4.8 million barrels of crude oil storage at a new facility called the Base Line Terminal ...  commissioning is expected to begin in the second half of 2017.
Separately, KMI will invest up to an additional CAD$69 million outside the joint venture in connecting pipelines and related infrastructure for a total project investment of approximately CAD$411 million.
BP might have to pull out of the Gulf of Mexico.
Oil giant BP plc BP if of the opinion that an oil spill fine higher than $2.3 billion would drain its U.S. unit of cash and threaten its future operations in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM).
The company faces up to $13.7 billion in fines for pollution caused by the Apr 2010 disaster. Under the US Clean Water Act, an additional fine of about $18 billion could be slapped on BP if it is found guilty of gross negligence for the Deepwater Horizon blowout that killed 11 workers and spilled millions of barrels of oil in the GoM. It took nearly three months for BP to cap the well, which was finally sealed in September. BP had continuously maintained that a strong ruling over America’s biggest offshore oil accident could be evaded.
[Does the Gulf even matter any more? The Bakken has more reserves than the Gulf of Mexico according to the EIA.]

Williams to increase equity in EV Energy.
WPZ announced its decision to acquire an additional 21% equity interest in UEO from a subsidiary of EV Energy Partners, L.P. EVEP. The partnership already holds a 49% equity interest in Utica East Ohio Midstream LLC through its subsidiary – Utica Gas Services.
The transaction is valued at about $575 million. Post acquisition, Williams Partners will own an equity interest of 70% in UEO.
Add one more. San Antonio BizJournal is reporting:
Tesoro Logistics LP is buying up QEP Midstream Partners LP in all unit transaction, the companies said late Monday.
Under the terms of the agreement, San Antonio-based Tesoro Logistics (NYSE: TLLP) will exchange 0.3088 common unit for every unit owned in QEP (NYSE: QEPM). Since both companies are structured as master limited partnerships, ownership is expressed in units not shares.
QEP’s units are valued at $17.09 per common unit based on Tesoro Logistics’ closing price of $55.34. This represents an 8.5 percent premium to the company’s original proposal on Dec. 2, 2014.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. 

Tuesday, April 7, 2015 -- Eight Wells Coming Off Confidential List Wednesday; Sixteen Producing Wells Completed -- Chipping Away At 850 Wells That Need To Be Fracked

This is April 7, 2015. The slump in crude prices began in October, 2014. October, 2014, plus six months = March/April, 2015. The number of permits did not start to decrease until early 2015, let's say March, 2015. March, 2015 plus six months = July/August: that's when we should start seeing a decrease in wells coming off the confidential list. It will happen before that, gradually, but by July/August it may become noticeable. With eight (8) wells coming off the confidential list tomorrow, the slowdown in production is not yet noticeable, using that data. It is noticeable in the field and in the daily rig count.

Active rigs:

Active Rigs93194187208171

Six (6) new permits:
  • Operators: Whiting (4), EOG (2)
  • Fields: East Fork (Williams), Parshall (Mountrail)
  • Comments: how good is the Bakken? Incredibly good. The Parshall oil field did not make the list of the top 100 oil fields in the United States. The Parshall oil field will make the list before it's all over.
Sixteen (16) producing wells completed (in long lists like this, there may be typographical errors):
  • 27959, 52, Cornerstone, Tafelmeyer MA-342706490, Customs, a Midale/Nesson well t2/15; cum 3K 2/15;
  • 28179, 1,356, Hess, HA-Rolfsrud-152-96-1720H-3, Westberg, t3/15; cum --
  • 28254, 1,410, Emerald, Excalibur 6-25-36H, Boxcar Butte, t3/15; cum --
  • 28485, 1,506, Hess, HA-Dahl-152-95-0706H-6, Hawkeye, t3/15; cum --
  • 28719, 553, Hess, EN-Neset-156-94-0706H-5, Big Butte, t3/15; cum --
  • 28741, 1,958, XTO, Johnson 24X-31A, Siverston, t3/15; cum --
  • 28742, 1,335, XTO, Johnson 24X-31E, Siverston, t3/15; cum --
  • 28743, 1,581, XTO, Johnson 24X-31F, Siverston, t3/15; cum --
  • 28887, 1,747, XTO, Johnson 224X-31EXH, Siverston, 4 sections, t3/15 cum --
  • 28939, 1,172, XTO, Allen 21X-17A, Dollar Joe, 4 sections, t3/15; cum --
  • 28940, 1,280, XTO, Allen 21X-17A, Dollar Joe, 4 sections, t3/15; cum --
  • 28941, 1,245, XTO, Allen 21X-17B, Dollar Joe, t3/15; cum --
  • 28942, 605, XTO, Allen 21X-17F, Dollar Joe, t3/15; cum --
  • 29366, 963, CLR, Rader 3-24H, Avoca, t3/15; cum --
  • 29367, 651, CLR, Rader 3-24H1, Avoca, t3/15; cum --
  • 30119, 2,285, Whiting, Shirley Moen 44-34-3H, Arnegard, t3/15; cum --
Five (5) permits canceled:
  • a Whiting Asbeck well in McKenzie County
  • four Emerald Mary Samsonite permits in Billings County
Wells coming off the confidential list Wednesday:
  • 25247, 531, Oasis, Mabel Federal 5201 41-12T, Camp, t11/14; cum 72K 2/15;
  • 26838, 802, WPX, Wolf Chief 27-34HZ, Mandaree, t2/15; cum 7K 2/15;
  • 28030, drl, Oasis, Twobins 5501 13-29 2T, Missouri Ridge, no production data,
  • 28061, 961, Oasis, Helling Trust Federal 5494 43-22 16T3, Alkali Creek, t2/15; cum 15K 2/15;
  • 28063, drl, Oasis, Helling Trust Federal 5494 43-22 13T2, Alkali Creek, no production data,
  • 28127, 787, Oasis, McCauley 5501 13-3 7T2, Tyrone, t2/15; cum 10K 2/15;
  • 29321, drl, Statoil, East Fork 32-29 6TFH, East Fork, no production data,
  • 29485, drl, Statoil, Bures 20-29 6TFH, Alger, no production data,

25247, see below, Oasis, Mabel Federal 5201 41-12T, Camp:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

North Dakota Has Not Less Than 22 Oil Fields On The List Of The Top 100 Oil Fields In The United States

This is really cool -- despite the fact that the data is over a year old. (Auto manufacturers get their monthly data out the day following the end of each month; in contrast, it takes about fourteen (14) months for the federal government to get their data out. (I can think of a dozen reasons why this occurs.)

Regardless, this is really cool -- the top 100 oil fields in the United States (the link is now broken; this link takes you directly to the EIA PDF). North Dakota has several on the list and nine North Dakota fields broke the top 50 for the first time.

Here are the North Dakota fields and their ranking:

19. Stanley (never would have guessed)
21. Cedar Hills (a CLR field?) (ND, MT, and SD)
22. Elk Hills
28. Sanish (yup)
30. Siverston (nice)
31. Heart Butte
32. Russian Creek (never would have guessed)
33. Banks
34. Elm Coulee (MT) -- not North Dakota; Montana is that big state to the west of North Dakota and South Dakota; the Bakken boom began in 2000 in Elm Coulee in Montana
41. Truax
49. East Fork
54. Reunion Bay
57. Alger
58. Antelope
61. Blue Buttes
64. Alkali Creek
68. Camp
69. Grail
70. Charlson
77. McGregory Buttes
84. Murphy Creek
95. Robinson Lake

"Yes, there is some oil there (the Bakken), but not much." -- Jane Nielson.

There are a lot of story lines with this article, but I don't have time to go into them now.


See first comment below, "What happened to the Parshall?"  Many, many reasons why the Parshall did not make the list this time, but Parshall will eventually make the list. Some of the reasons can be seen in the graphic below. The screenshot only includes part of the Sanish and part of the Parshall (the Sanish to the west; the Parshall to the east). Perhaps not easily seen in this graphic, approximately only the west half of the Parshall is particularly productive; the eastern half is of less interest to EOG at the moment.

Is Renewable Energy Getting Much More Expensive? New Mexico Case Study -- April 7, 2015

From an August 25, 2014, post, this is 30-second sound bite for "cost of renewable megawatt":
  • Solar: $3 million / MW
  • Wind: $2.5 million / MW
  • Natural gas: $865,000 / MW
A reader sent me the link to this article:
A Colorado-based company plans to build a 750 megawatt natural gas and photovoltaic power plant in San Juan County that will cost close to $1 billion, according to a company spokesman.
Officials with Western Energy Partners, LLC, the Colorado company, expect to finish building the plant in the middle of 2019 and employ 30 full-time employees once it is operational, according to a press release. They anticipate creating approximately 800 temporary jobs while building the plant, according to the release. 
Natural gas will provide 680 megawatts of the electricity produced by the plant, and solar panels will generate the other 70 megawatts, according to the press release.
Let's do the math.
The plant: $1 billion / 750 MW = $1.33 million / MW
70 / 750 =  0.093

At the "usual price":

70 MW x $3 million/MW (solar) = $210 million
680 MW x $865,000/MW (ng) = $588 million
total = $798 million
$1 billion = x *$798 million
x = 1.25

For solar: 1.25 x $3 million / MW (solar) = $3.75 million / MW (solar)
For natural gas: 1.25 x $865 thousand (natural gas) = $1.08 million / MW (natural gas)
At the "usual prices" for solar and natural gas, $1.33 million / MW is about twice what a natural gas project would have cost or about half what a solar plant would have cost. So, the natural gas plant is subsidizing the solar portion of the plant by a significant amount. But the developers grease the political wheels/regulators AND get the tax breaks for going solar to help "sell" the entire plant. In addition, it probably helps meet various state mandates requiring a certain amount of electricity from solar or wind energy.

This is most interesting: using the "usual" prices for natural gas and/or solar, this plant is costing 1.25 times what one would expect a power plant to cost. As noted above, using the "usual" prices, this plant should have come in at around $800 million. Instead it comes in at $1 billion (and most projects of this size come in over budget).

My hunch is the natural gas portion of the plant is coming in at about $1 million /MW and the solar portion is coming in at about $4.7 million / MW.

Checking the math:
  • 680 x $1 million / MW = $680 million
  • 70 x $4.6 million / MW = $320 million
  • Total = $1 billion (rounding)
You can do your own math. If you think the $4.6 million / MW for solar is outrageous, then make it a smaller number, but then you have to increase the cost of natural gas which makes no sense considering the current glut of natural gas. If you think $1 million/WM for a natural gas project is outrageous, then you have raise the cost of solar.

Perhaps the real question is, where is the "0.25" hiding in the fine print of the business plan for this project.

(A huge "thank you" to a reader for noting a simple arithmetic error in the original post. That has been corrected. There may be more errors.)

Off The Net For Awhile

Be sure to spend some time on the Flatland Federal wells reported today.

Active rigs:

Active Rigs93194187208171

Somewhat Tedious -- He Said, She Said -- April 7, 2015


Later, 10:43 a.m. CT: so, how is the Hatfield-McCoy war-of-words on the price of crude oil playing out. After a 6% gain yesterday, the market is now showing:

Original Post
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment or financial decisions based on anything you read here or think you may have read here. The blog was my way of following the Bakken, trying to make sense of it, trying to learn what it was all about. See expanded disclaimer for additional background. I had not intended to get into the investment stories or even the price of oil when the blog started, but I soon realized that one can't follow the Bakken, if one doesn't follow the money.

Predicting the price of oil is a fool's errand and I try not to do that, but I have on numerous occasions and haven't learned anything from that, except to confirm that predicting the price of oil is a fool's errand. Having said that, oil companies do their best to predict the price of oil .... but enough of this.

These thoughts come in response to the Hatfield-McCoy feud among those writing stories on the price of crude oil. Yesterday, by mid-day, the price of oil spiked almost 6%. Pundits suggested this was due to the fact that Iranian sanctions have not been lifted, and another tsunami of oil did not flood the market. Within hours, Goldman Sachs put out a bearish report on the price of oil. It seemed pretty obvious they were spooked by that 6% spike, especially if they had put their money where their analysis was some weeks ago when they predicted $40-oil. And now this morning, OilPrice has an article by Leonard Brecken which pretty much puts into perspective all that's been said on the price of crude oil over the past few weeks.

I'm not familiar enough yet with OilPrice or Leonard Brecken. Googling Leonard Brecken: first hit -- a short call on Netflix back in 2011. The site also notes that Leonard Brecken is the founder of small NJ based hedge fund Brecken Capital.

The picture becomes clearer. Superficially we have Goldman Sachs bearish, and a hedge fund calling them on that.

For me this is the big story: at $150-oil, Bakken operators can afford to be inefficient, where time is the issue, not money.  At $40-oil, Bakken operators need to become more efficient, and where money, not time, is the issue.

One can argue it anyway one wants but $40-oil was probably necessary. Whether it's necessary for $40-oil to be the new norm is another question for another day. But consumers should enjoy it while they can.

By the way, how did that Netflix article work out.
  • March 21, 2011: $230
  • July 4, 2011: $295 (big miss by Leonard Brecken)
  • November 28, 2011: $66 (huge win by Leonard Brecken)
  • March 3, 2014: $448 (wow)
  • Today: $422 (whatever)

Earnings -- 1Q15

This is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, or relationship decisions based on what you read here. If this is important to you, go to the source. There will be factual and typographical errors on this page. If something looks wrong, it probably is.

Earnings Calendar

All 1Q15 earnings will be reported at this page; the link will be on the sidebar at the right, under "Earnings Central." When we start to see earnings reports for any quarter, the "Earnings Central" link is moved to the top of the sidebar until the earning season is over.

I don't have time to check/update earnings on all companies listed below. If you see one that I have missed, feel free to send it in (anonymous comment or by e-mail) and I will post it.

Much of this information is done in haste. I assume there are factual and typographical errors. It is for my personal use only. If this information is important to you, go to the source.

General update (dates subject to change)
Alcoa unofficially kicked off the first-quarter earnings season Wednesday and its results -- profit that topped expectations and revenue that didn't -- hinted that the upcoming deluge of earnings reports might be a bumpy ride for investors.
The company reported an adjusted quarterly profit of 28 cents a share, beating the 26 cents that analysts had been predicting, says S&P Capital. It was at least the fifth quarter in a row that Alcoa had the company delivered of better-than-expected profit. It also gave investors a reason to hope companies as a whole might have done deliver better earnings results than feared.

EPS estimates in parentheses following the ticker symbol (according to Yahoo!Finance) -- typographical errors likely.

ARII (American Railcar Industries) ($):

Anadarko (APC) ($ ): 

APA ($ ):  

AXAS ($):   Abraxas sinks after hours; declares a 10% increase in quarterly dividend. Reported 17 cents/share vs forecast of 27 cents/share.

AMZG ($):

Arch Coal (ACI): misses by 4 cents.
Arch Coal, Inc. today reported a net loss of $113 million, or $0.53 per diluted share, in the first quarter of 2015 compared with a net loss of $124 million, or $0.59 per diluted share, in the first quarter of 2014. Revenues totaled $677 million for the three months ended March 31, 2015 and adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, depletion and amortization ("adjusted EBITDA") was $82 million, a threefold increase as compared to the prior-year quarter.
BTE.TO (Baytex) ($): 

BAX ($ ):   beat.

BCEI ($ ): 

BHI ($ 0.47): big miss.
HOUSTON (AP) _ Baker Hughes Inc. (BHI) on Tuesday reported a first-quarter loss of $589 million, after reporting a profit in the same period a year earlier.
On a per-share basis, the Houston-based company said it had a loss of $1.35. Earnings, adjusted for restructuring costs and non-recurring costs, were 23 cents per share.
The results did not meet Wall Street expectations. The average estimate of 17 analysts surveyed by Zacks Investment Research was for earnings of 47 cents per share.
BK ($0.59 ): beats, 67 cents; Zacks; BNY Mellon has a decent earnings surprise history. Before posting the earnings beat in Q1, the company delivered positive surprises in three of the prior four quarters, with an average bet of 5.85% in the trailing four quarters.

BKH ($ ):  $1.07

BWC (Babcock & Wilcox) ($ ): Beats by 4 cents; beats on revenue.

Calfrac Well Services (CFW.TO):  Calfrack earnings press release here. 29 cents vs loss of 14 cents forecast?

CAT: huge beat;

CHK ($ ):    swings to a loss, but beats by 7 cents; Reports Q1 earnings of $0.11 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.07 better than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $0.04; revenues fell 45.3% year/year to $2.76 bln vs the $3.45 bln consensus.
  • Average production of ~686,000 boe per day, an increase of 14% year over year, adjusted for asset sales. 
  • Adjusted EBITDA was $928 million in the 2015 first quarter, compared to $1.515 billion in the 2014 first quarter. 
  • Guidance: 2015 total production guidance increased to 640 -- 650 mboe per day 2015 capital guidance of approximately $3.5 -- $4.0 billion reiterated
CLNE ($ ): misses by 7 cents;

CLR ($ ):  Must have been a good report; up almost 3% in after-hours trading. Beats by 4 cents; quarterly loss less than expected.

CNR.TO (Canadian National Railway) ($  ):   
COP tops forecast.  COP reported an 18 cent per-share loss on Thursday for Q1, but beat analysts estimates for a 19-cent loss.

CPG.T (Crescent Point) ($): 5/6

CRR ( ):  CARBO Ceramics press release here. $1.24 loss vs a loss of 49 cents forecast?

CSX ($0.45 ):  met Zacks, 45 cents; better than last year's 40 cents; lowers guidance; raises dividend; upbeat report at Seeking Alpha;

CVX ($):  first-quarter earnings dropped 43% amid slumping crude oil prices, though strength in its refining segment helped put the results above analysts’ estimates. Chevron reported earnings of $2.57 billion, or $1.37 a share, down from $4.51 billion, or $2.36 a share, a year earlier. Currency fluctuations added $580 million to earnings, versus a year-earlier hit of $79 million.
Chevron, the second-biggest U.S. oil company in market value behind Exxon Mobil Corp. , has been working to increase its oil-and-gas output. In the latest quarter, its daily oil-equivalent production rose to 2.68 million barrels from 2.59 million barrels a year earlier.
On Thursday, Exxon also posted a sharp drop in profit while exceeding Wall Street expectations. Both energy companies have moved to trim spending as the collapse in oil prices wiped billions of dollars from their cash flow, and Chevron stopped buying back its shares.
DNR ($): a first-quarter loss of $107.7 million, after reporting a profit in the same period a year earlier.
The Plano, Texas-based company said it had a loss of 31 cents per share. Earnings, adjusted for non-recurring costs, were 7 cents per share.
The results met Wall Street expectations. The average estimate of nine analysts surveyed by Zacks Investment Research was also for earnings of 7 cents per share.
DVN ($):   5/15

ECA ($): 98% drop in operating profit; reports 1Q loss;

EEP ($):  Enbridge Energy Partners (EEP) beats by 3 cents.

ENB ($): a quarterly loss compared with a year-ago profit, hurt by the impact of a steep drop in oil and gas prices and hedging losses; 46 Canadian cents per share, in the first quarter ended March 31, compared with a profit of C$390 million, or 47 Canadian cents per share, a year earlier. It's hard to believe, but ENB is trading near its 52-week high, and significantly increased their dividend in February, 2015.

EOG ($0.01): 3 cents (triple analysts' forecasts); transcript;

EOX (Emerald; was VOG) ($ ):  a loss of 7 cents/share; production up an astounding 88%;

EPD ($): barely misses; forecast, 33 cents; reported 32 cents; increased distribution to $1.50/unit on an annualized basis;

ERF ($): 

ETP ($): 

GEOI (bought by Halcon [HK], below)

HAL ($ ): huge swing to loss;

HES ($):

HP ($): huge beat;

HK (Halcon; previously GEOI) ($): misses by 2 cents; a loss of 4 cents;

Kinder Morgan - KMI ($0.23): beat expectations, 24 cents; hikes dividend; sees another dividend hike later this year

Kinder Morgan - KMP ($):  

KOG ($):  

LEG.TO (Legacy/Bowood) ($): 5/13

LINE (-$0.20): big miss; misses by 85 cents; 

MDU ($0): 12 cents; transcript;

MHR (Magnum Hunter) ($): 

MMR (McMoRan) ( ): 

MPC (Marathon Petroleum ($): Marathon Petroleum Corporation beats by 38 cents.


MRO (Marathon Oil) ($): 1Q15 loss but beats by 8 cents; misses on revenue.

NE (Noble Corp) ($0.51): huge beat; forecast 53 cents; came in at 72 cents.

NBL: misses by one penny; misses on revenue

NBR ($):

NFX ($): misses by 6 cents; 2 cents; expectations of 8 cents;

NGLS: beats by 4 cents; misses on revenue;

NOG ($0): 5/7 after mkt close

NOV ($1.11):  huge beat; $1.27; shares plummet;

OAS ($0): beats by $0.02, misses on revs: Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $0.28 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.02 better than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $0.26; revenues fell 44.0% year/year to $180.4 mln vs the $253.77 mln consensus.

OKE ($): adjusted earnings of 29 cents per share, lagging the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 38 cents by 23.7% and the year-ago earnings by 32.6%.

OKS ($): first-quarter 2015 net income attributable to ONEOK Partners of $145.6 million, or 21 cents per unit, compared with $265.4 million, or 81 cents per unit, in the first quarter 2014.

OTTR ($):

OXY ($): reports EPS in-line, misses on revs: Reports Q1 earnings of $0.04 per share, excluding non-recurring items, in-line with the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $0.04; revenues fell 37.8% year/year to $3.09 bln vs the $3.35 bln consensus.

PAA ($): beats by 3 cents;

PSX ($):  Phillips 66 profit falls 37%. $1.79/share vs forecast of $1.43.

PXD (Pioneer Natural Resources) ($):   5/5

QEP (-$0.30):  misses;

RRC (Range Resources): 16 cents vs 20 cents 1Q14;

RIG ($): Swings to loss but beats by 49 cents. Shareholders liked report.

SBUX (Starbucks) ($):

SD ($): 1Q15 loss but beats by one penny; misses on revenue.

SLB ($0.96): beats, $1.06; profit down almost 40% from year earlier; will cut another 2,000 jobs, to total 11,000 jobs lost; Yahoo!In-Play here;

SCTY: beats by 8 cents; loss of $1.52;

SM ($): missed by 8 cents; 21 cents;

SRE (): beats by 3 cents; profits rise 77%;



STO (BEXP) ($):  
STR ($0.48): in-line; increases dividend;

SBUX ($0.33): meets at 33 cents; stunning quarter; shares surge;

T ($0.62): slight beat at 63 cents;

Targa Resources (TRGP):

TPLM ($0.05): at 6 cents beats by one cent

TSO (): 5/6

TransCanada (TRP.TO) ($):  met expectations, 66 Canadian cents;

Ultra Petroleum (UPL) ($): Ultra Petroleum beats by 9 cents.

UNP ($):  misses;

USEG ($): 

VLO ($1.74):  huge beat; $1.87


WFT ($0.01): misses; swings to a loss of 4 cents; Zacks;



WLL (-$0.32): a loss, but beats expectations; transcript;

WMB ($0.15): beats;

WPX (): beats by 47 cents; 32 cents, better than the forecast of a loss of 15 cents;

XOM earned $4.9 billion in the first quarter, down 46 percent from the same period in 2014, the company announced Thursday. That breaks down to $1.17 per share vs forecast of 83 cents/share. Huge beat.
Meanwhile, Exxon increased its dividend by 6% on Wednesday to 73 cents a quarter up from 69 cents. That implied a $12.2 billion payout to investors, but it wasn’t certain the payout would be that big until the company said Thursday how many shares are outstanding. But, yes, that’s the right projection
Business Insider says XOM "smashes" expectations

XLNX ($0.50):  easily beats at 58 cents; but shares fall almost 6%

Tuesday, April 7, 2015

Active rigs:

Active Rigs94194187208171

RBN Energy: a look at the new EIA monthly CBR data.
According to a new set of data released at the end of March by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), crude-by-rail (CBR) movements jumped from 20 Mb/d in January 2010 to almost 1 MMb/d by December 2014. The big increase in CBR shipments has coincided with a 71% increase in U.S. crude production and has successfully helped alleviate a number of pipeline transport constraints. While overall crude-by-rail volumes have grown in the past 5 years, favored origins and destinations have changed considerably as the midstream industry has successfully re-plumbed the pipeline network to handle new crude flows. Today we review the new EIA report data on rail.
We’ve been covering the CBR scene ever since RBN started posting blogs back in 2012 – including our seminal series “Crude Loves Rock’n’Rail” that described how producers turned to rail over pipelines – first in North Dakota and later in other shale basins. Historically, crude-by-rail transport dominated the early oil industry in North America - underpinning John D Rockefeller’s monopoly. But it’s use declined after WW2 once pipelines were built to ship larger volumes of crude over longer distances. Pipelines have been almost always preferred since then because (once built) their freight costs are generally lower than using rail or trucks. More recently however, surging crude production from shale overwhelmed existing pipeline take-away infrastructure leading to significant constraints and price discounting – particularly in the Midwest. As a result, at the end of 2010, producers (led by innovators EOG and BNSF) turned to the railroads to deliver crude past congested pipelines to coastal markets where netbacks (crude sales price less transport costs from the wellhead) were considerably higher.