Thursday, September 30, 2010

North Dakota Oil Production

NDIC Director's Cuts are posted here.  

Tentative release dates for future "cuts"for 2017:
  • Friday, May 12, 2:00 p.m.
  • Thursday, June 15, 11:00 a.m.
  • Friday, July 14, 2:00 a.m. (sic)
  • Friday, August 11, 11:00 a.m.
  • Friday, September 15, 11:00 a.m.
  • Thursday, October 11, 11:00 a.m.
  • Tuesday, November 14, 2:00 p.m.
  • Friday, December 15, 2:00 p.m.
USA

US to set production record by 2018; 9.9 million bopd
US overtakes Russia as the leading fossil fuel producer
US to be top producer by 2017; net exporter by 2030 -- New York Times.


North Dakota

January, 2017: January data. Daily production up 4%, but still below 1 million bopd. The number of DUCs remained flat, but number of inactive wells increased significantly.

December, 2016: December data. The number of DUCs remain flat but the number of inactive wells increasing. Daily production decreases almost 10%.

November, 2016: November data. Daily production unchanged (down 0.96%).

October, 2017: October data. A production increase of 7.3% month-over-month.

September, 2016: September data. Production fell to lowest level in more than two years, staying below one million bopd for the second month in a row.

August, 2016: August data. Almost a 5% drop in production. Down to 981,039 bopd; dropping below one million bbls; was 1,029,734 bbls in July, 2016.

July, 2016: July data. Production month-over-month flat (up 0.2%).

June, 2016: June data. Daily production down 2% but still, (barely) above the 1 million bopd threshhold. The number of DUCs are decreasing because number of wells drilled is decreasing and fracking continues; break-even for wells being drilled in North Dakota now: $26/bbl;

May, 2016: May data. As Rystad Energy predicted, North Dakota's oil production increased slightly since April, 2016. The number of DUCs increased slightly and the number of inactive wells decreased by only 6.

April, 2016: April data. Finally, the Red Queen fell off the treadmill. Oil production down an astounding 6%.
  • although total production dropped a whopping 6% month-over-month, ND production still manages greater than 1 million bopd  (but just barely)
  • there are now almost 2,500 DUCs and inactive wells in North Dakota (one can presume most of them are Bakken/Three Forks wells
  • flaring has now met the target set for April, 2020 -- four years ahead of schedule (I always said "they" meet the "no-flaring' goal if they quit drilling)
March, 2016: the Red Queen? LOL. Month-over-month North Dakota oil production doesn't even drop 1%.

February, 2016: month-over-month unchanged; quite incredible.

January, 2016: production decreased 2.65% month-over-month; fracklog unchanged; rigs to lowest level since beginning of the boom. 

December, 2015: production decreases 2.5% month-over-month; fracklog unchanged. Bakken pricing today at $16/bbl.

November, 2015: production increases about 0.44% month-over-month; fracklog pretty much unchanged; permitting way down; completions way down; 

October, 2015: production actually increases a bit month-over-month; fracklog drops about 10%; 

September, 2015: fracklog increases significantly

August, 2015: here;

July, 2015: waiting to post.
  • daily production flat month-over-month (decreased 0.8%)
  • fracklog jumps 70 to 914
  • flaring increases 3% to 20% flaring statewide
  • Hess Tioga plant capacity decreases again, down to 88% 
June, 2015: second-highest daily production in history (record set, December, 2014). 0.7% increase month-over-month.

May, 2015: production increases 2.7% month-over-month; incredible.

April, 2015: preliminary data based on news reports; full summary here (June 19, 2015 -- date of release)
  • fracklog: 925, an increase of 45
March, 2015: Director's Cut summary.  Preliminary: 1,190,582 bopd.
  • fracklog: 880, a decrease of 20
February, 2015: Director's Cut summary. 1,177,094 bopd
  • fracklog: 900, an increase of 75
January, 2015: Director's Cut summary. Preliminary: 1,190,490
  • fracklog: 825, an increase of 75
December, 2014: Director's Cut summary. Final: 1,227,3483 (this looks like the record)
  • fracklog: 750, a decrease of 25 (yes, I am aware the math doesn't work)
November, 2014: Director's Cut summary. Final: 1,188,258
  • fracklog: 750, an increase of 150
October, 2014: Director's Cut summary. Final: 1,183,515
  • fracklog: 650, an increase of 40
September, 2014: Director's Cut summary. Preliminary: 1,184,635
  •  fracklog: 610, an increase of 10
August, 2014: Director's Cut summary. Preliminary: 1,132,331
  • fracklog: 600, a decrease of 30
July, 2014: Director's Cut summary. Preliminary: 1,110,642
  • fracklog: 630, an increase of 45
June, 2014Director's Cut. Data points that caught my eye:
  • 1,092,616 bopd (preliminary; new all-time high)
  • 5% increase month-over-month is staggering when you think about it
  • doing more with less; rig count remains well below all-time high
  • weather is perfect; additional frack teams coming on board -- so why does number of wells waiting completion remain so high (600 a month ago; still 585 waiting completion -- NDIC says there was a decrease of about 25, and yet, the delta may be even less); two answers -- operational calendar/scheduled due to pad drilling; and, significant shortage of sand
  • the number of active rigs on federal grassland up four times (4x); from 1 to 4
  • flaring is still a problem despite all the new processing capacity; 28% is better but it's still ... 28%
May, 2014: Director's Cut: 1,040,469 bopd (new all-time high)

April, 2014: Director's Cut: surpassed one million bopd;

March, 2014: Director's Cut; 977,051 bopd (preliminary; if it holds, a new all-time record)

February, 2014: Director's Cut; 951,340 bopd (does not exceed the all-time high last November, 2013); revised to 952,055

January, 2014: Director's Cut; 935,126 bopd

December, 2013: Director's Cut; 926,687 bopd

November, 2013: Director's Cut; new all-time high -- 973,045 bopd (all-time high to date)

October, 2013: Director's Cut: new all-time high -- 941,637 bopd

September, 2013: Director's Cut; new all-time high -- 931,940 bopd

August, 2013: Director's Cut; new all-time high -- 911,242 bopd

July, 2013: Director's Cut; new all time high -- 874,460 bopd

June, 2013: Director's Cut; new all-time high -- 821,415 bopd

May, 2013: Director's Cut; new all-time high -- 810,129 bopd

April, 2013: Director's Cut; new all-time high -- 793,852 bopd (revised with May's report)

March, 2013: Director's Cut; new all-time high -- 782,812

February, 2013: Director's Cut: new all-time high -- 778,176 bopd


January 11, 2013: Director's Cut. First month in a long time with month-over-month production actually decreases; production/well also decreases

December 17, 2012: Director's Cut

November 20, 2012: Director's Cut

October 20, 2012: Director's Cut

September 19, 2012: Director's Cut

August 16, 2012: Director's Cut

July 18, 2012: Director's Cut

June 19, 2012: Director's Cut

April 11, 2012: Director's Cut

March 21, 2012: Director's Cut

February 10, 2012: Director's Cut

January 17, 2012: Director's Cut

December 12, 2011: Director's Cut


*****************************


November 12, 2010: Director's Cut
  • August, 2010, Oil: 10,195,061 barrels --> 328,873 bbls/day
  • September, 2010, Oil: 10,241,510 barrels --> 341,384 bbls/day -- all time record
  • August, 2010, producing wells: 5,115
  • September, 2010, producing wells: 5,197 -- all time high
  • August, 2010, permits: 138
  • September, 2010, permits: 167 -- all time high
October 11, 2010: Director's Cut
  • June, 2010, Oil:  9,434,312 barrels = 314,477 barrels/day
  • July, 2010, Oil:  9,952,296 barrels = 321,042 barrels/day (all time high)
  • August, 2010, Oil: 10,134,368 barrels = 326,915 barrels/day (all time high)
  • June, 2010: Producing Wells = 4,977
  • July, 2010: Producing Wells = 5,051 (all time high)
  • August, 2010: Producing Wells = 5,115 (all time high)
  • June, 2010, Permitting: 128 drilling permits
  • July, 2010, Permitting: 145 drilling permits (all time high)
  • August, 2010, Permitting: 138 drilling
    NDIC Director still voices his concern about EPA regulation.

November 21, 2009: North Dakota state official states that in addition to the Bakken, TFS, and Lodgepole, there is now another formation oil producers are targeting: the Birdbear. Actually that is not news. Oilmen have known about this formation for decades and have targeted it in the past. What is new,  is renewed interest in this formation for horizontal drilling and fracture stimulation. Update, November 2, 2010: Marathon's Mylo Wolding 14-11, a Birdbear well, reported an IP of 39 bopd.

November 16, 2009: North Dakota oil production projected to be 350,000 barrels of oil per day in 2010.

November 13, 2009: More on the recent record North Dakota land lease auction. Some acres in Mountrail County were leased for $8,000/acre. Land exploration companies / producers aren't paying $8,000/acre to watch the barley grow. 2010 is going to be an outstanding year.

November 13, 2009: A relatively new concept for frac'ing has been introduced: tri-frac. Initial discussion here; time will tell whether this amounts to anything. This link, in addition, provides some insight into the status of the Elm Coulee field in Montana (where the current Bakken boom began) and Enerplus which hasn't gotten much notice lately.

November 9, 2009: even the Canadians are betting on the Bakken (southwestern Saskatchewan).

November 9, 2009: ND went over 60 active rigs today (61, to be exact). Most since late 2008. [On November 13, 200, NDIC reported 63 active rigs.]

November 8, 2009: This site (the Million Dollar Way) was cited in the opening line of a Grand Forks Herald story today. You may need to sign in to see the article. You can sign in with your Facebook account. You can see a version of the same article at Yahoo News without having to sign in.

November 6, 2009: More evidence that the oil/gas industry continues to expand: Denver company to expand gas plant; sees continued development of the Williston Basin. This regards a facility in Divide County, the Ambrose Gas Plant southwest of Ambrose.

November 5, 2009: North Dakota state land oil lease auction brings in record amount, $72 million. Previous record: $30 million in 1980; adjusted for inflation: $80 million. 59,000 acres; average, $1,214/acre.

November 4, 2009: The Mountrail County Promoter states that North Dakota, already the 4th leading oil producer in the United States, would produce more oil if pipeline capacity was adequate. The writer notes that there is talk of two more pipelines in the Stanley area: one would take oil into Canada and then back into the states through another pipeline; and the second additional pipeline would take oil out of the local area. I have opined elsewhere that one starts to get the feeling that the Williston Basin could become another "Tulsa" over the next two decades.

November 4, 2009: 18 percent more North Dakotans reporting $1 million (or more) in income; 470 (2008) vs 400 (2007; due to oil income. And some said the Bakken was over-hyped; not these folks.

November 1, 2009: With the Lodgepole, 2010 is going to be a big year for oil in ND.

November 1, 2009: DNR will buy EAC. Denbury: a powerhouse of a company.

October 31, 2009: The news is starting to come fast and furious out of North Dakota; there is almost too much news to report.
We are seeing more Three Forks Sanish action. Encore just reported a 1,500 bopd well with a TFS well with a single frac. Now they are going to offset another well at the same location, but accomplish a 22-stage fracture, and then compare a single frac stimulation with multiple stage fracture stimulation. This is getting very exciting very fast.

Encore is going to add another rig to North Dakota drilling program. There are currently about 56 rigs in North Dakota and almost every producer has announced plans to add more rigs. I think I remember reading EOG plans to increase its fleet of seven rigs to thirteen.
October 28, 2009: ND reported to be #4 in oil production among the US states.ND jumped ahead of Oklahoma few months ago and then past Louisiana in most recent reporting period.

October 25, 2009: Hess moves to Tioga.Hess moved into their new operations complex in Tioga on October 20, 2009. Spokesman says center of operations for Hess in North Dakota is Tioga and thus the move.

October 25, 2009: EOG to ship oil on railroad tankers. EOG should begin shipping oil out of North Dakota via railroad cars starting February, 2010; the loading terminal was built this past year in Stanley, ND. Pipeline capacity has been exceeded by the Bakken production. 


October 25, 2009: Huge Halliburton expansion.Earlier this year Halliburton announced a $20 million project to expand their industrial complex east of Williston. Sanjel's complex was reported to cost $7 million, so local Willistonites can only imagine what a $20 million addition / modification to an existing complex might look like.  The link is here. It should be completed in 2010.

October 25, 2009: North Dakota Defies Predictions With Record Oil Production
The state Industrial Commission reports that North Dakota oil wells pumped an average 226,940 barrels a day in July and 231,252 barrels daily in August, the latest figures available because oil production numbers typically lag at least two months. The previous high of 215,637 barrels a day was set in November 2008.North Dakota produced a record 62.8 million barrels last year, up nearly 18 million barrels from 2007.