Thursday, September 13, 2018

A Sea Of Heartbreak -- From Storm Of The Century To One Huge Rainstorm In 24 Hours -- September 13, 2018


September 15, 2018: Florence. Within a 24-hour time span the "hurricane of the century" was downgraded from category 4 to category 1, maybe from category 3 to a category 1 -- but the downgrade was fast. Within hours after the eye hit the short it was downgraded to a tropical storm -- a rain storm.

Today, it looks like lots of rain but that's about all. Lots of flooding.

It sounds like they are even restoring electricity faster than anyone thought possible.

For all the money spent on conferences on global warming, it seems cities along the coast could have spent more money on flood control. Phoenix, Arizona, and other cities in the southwest US desert are routinely hit with monsoons, and they built an infrastructure to move that water to mitigate flooding as much as possible. Even the Romans (back at the time of Christ) had emissaria (plural of emissarium).

Original Post
Two days ago I was under the impression this storm was going to be one for the record books -- either a category 5 or category 4.

Nearing land, it stalled and quickly went to category 3.

Now, the eye has still not hit landfall, according to google winds, and it's been downgraded to a category 1 storm.

A nothing burger. Except lots and lots and lots of rain. And flooding.

The meteorologists will again do what they can to keep us mesmerized ...
"With this storm, it's a (Category 1) but the storm surge and the flooding is going to be that of a category 4," CNN Meteorologist Jennifer Gray said Thursday night. 
She said the momentum the storm has generated on its long trip across the Atlantic won't go away just "because the winds decrease a couple miles an hour." 
While wind speeds dropped Thursday, forecasters reminded people that what makes Florence extremely dangerous are the potentially deadly storm surges, the expected mammoth coastal flooding and historic rainfall.
Category 1.
One huge rainstorm.  

A sea of heartbreak.

A Sea of Heartbreak, Zombina and the Skeletons

Texas A&M Ranks President Obama As 5th Best President In US History
I know you will find this hard to believe. A Texas A&M study calls President Barack Obama the 5th best president in America.

Good research work by a fine institution.


From a total of 45 US Presidents:  Obama is rated as the 5th best.  The A&M's Public Relations Office released this statement. " Americans have rated President Obama the 5th best President ever."

These are the details according to Texas A&M:
1.  Reagan and Lincoln tied for first
2.  Twentyfour presidents tied for second
3.  Seventeen other presidents tied for third
4.  Jimmy Carter came in fourth, and
Obama came in fifth.
When I Get Low, I Get High, The Speakeasy Three

Fugue State: Listening To Music After The Midnight Hour -- September 13 - 14, 2018

For several years -- or maybe it was only for several months -- I would often stay up well past midnight, put on the headphones, and surf YouTube. I could put myself into a fugue state moving from one video to the next. I chose the next music video -- it was not chosen by some YouTube algorithm -- but the deeper I got into the fugue state the farther I drifted from where I started.

Tonight, it started with Baillie and the Boys' A Fool Such As I which led to Don Gibson's Sea of Heartbreak. Everyone has covered A Fool Such As I but I think Baillie's is the best. Strangely, I could find no one who out-did Don Gibson's Sea of Heartbreak.


Sea of Heartbreak, Zombina and the Skeletones
From there, to:

It's Good To Be Alive, Imelda May
Tainted Love, Imelda May

I knew I had heard that song somewhere but a devil of a time remembering where, until it hit me. "The history teacher!"

Tainted Love, The History Teacher

I had never heard Tainted Love except by "the history teacher." I never thought of looking up the original. But now having seen/heard Imelda May, I had to see the "original" Tainted Love.

Tainted Love, Soft Cell

Johnny's Got a Boom Boom, Imelda May.

Fuzzy n' Wild, The Vice Barons, needs to be played really loud.

Back to Zombina and the Skeletones, Vincent Price.

And, then, to this ... finish with a squeeze box -- hey, I'm in Texas.... although this is really from South Texas and I'm well into North Texas.

All You Ever Do Is Bring Me Down, The Mavericks

I'll be up for awhile getting deeper and deeper into this fugue state. No more posting but if you want to  join me meet me in Morocco ...

Only Lovers Left Alive, Official Movie Trailer

Nine New Permits -- September 13, 2018

Florence: eye of the storm has not yet reached landfall (Google winds here) -- 7:26 p.m. CDT.

Keeping Singapore great: from money.cnn --
GE Aviation, the bright spot in the embattled conglomerate, agreed on Thursday to unload a Baltimore-based business for $630 million in cash.
The sale of Middle River Aircraft Systems, which makes thrust reversers that slow jets and hard casings for engines, is the latest in a long series of deals that have shrunk GEs vast empire.
Singapore Technologies Engineering is buying the aviation business in a bid to "scale up" its own aerospace capabilities. Middle River Aircraft Systems employs about 800 people and has designed and built aircraft for almost 90 years.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Apple: Cramer is blown away by the Apple Watch. Paraphrasing Cramer: "As exciting as the new iPhone is, you are being downright negligent not getting the Apple Watch. Just what the doctor ordered. And if you get the Apple Watch, you're going to get an iPhone. The Apple Watch monitors the heart rate; FDA-approved "A-fib" warming; and, get this, an FDA-approved one-lead ECG (EKG). Apple Watch / iPhone: not evolutionary yesterday; revolutionary." AAPL: recovered some of its recent losses; up over $5.00. Did not hit new high, but certainly within striking distance.

Active rigs:

Active Rigs65553569199

Nine new permits:
  • Operators: Hess (5); XTO (4)
  • Fields: Dollar Joe (Williams), Alkali Creek (Mountrail)
  • Comments: Hess has permits for a 5-well GO-Elvin Garfield pad in NENE 30-156-97; meanwhile, XTO has permits for a 4-well Emma pad in Alkali Creek
Four producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
  • 31347, 347, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Paopao 2-35-26-158N-100W, Dublin, t8/18; cum --
  • 33101, n/d, CLR, Sakakawea Federal 7-19H1, Elm, t-- , cum --
  • 29770, 145, Murex, Alfred Jacob 13-24H, Temple, t7/18; cum --
  • 29769, 105, Murex, Elmer Olaf 13-24H,  Temple, t7/18; cum --
Dry hole:
  • 15082, dry, Petro-Hunt, Kukla 19D-1-4, Little Knife, a Madison well; I think this was originally drilled back in 2001; dry then, also; could be wrong, didn't spend much time looking at the file report;

Update On The Egyptian Zohr Natural Gas Field -- Said To Be The Biggest Gas Field In The Mediterranean -- September 13, 2018

From wiki:
The field was discovered in 2015 by the Italian energy company Eni and is the largest ever natural gas find in the Mediterranean Sea, almost twice the size of the nearby Leviathan gas field.
The total gas in place in the Zohr gas field is around 850 billion cubic metres (30 trillion cubic feet). If true, Zohr will almost double Egypt's gas reserves.
Earlier this year:
February 12, 2018: Turkish warships are impeding a rig from reaching a location of Cyprus where Italian energy company Eni is scheduled to drill for gas. -- from Twitter. Update from Reuters. Turkey is wearing out its "welcome" in the EU. Eni says it will produce 2.9 Bcf per day from Zohr field by second half of 2019. Compare that "2.9 Bcf" to the Bakken: from the last Director's Cut,
What was North Dakota's natural gas production in the most recent month, November, 2017? Yup, another all-time high: 2.1 billion cubic feet / day.
So, what's the latest on the Zohr field? From oilprice today:
The huge Zohr gas field offshore Egypt has increased its production six-fold since it started production in January this year.
Production at Zohr in the Mediterranean has increased to 2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) from 350 million bcfd when it began commercial production in January 2018.
Italy’s oil and gas major Eni—which discovered the field in 2015 when it said that it was the largest ever gas discovery in the Mediterranean—said last week that the Zohr field production of 2 bcfd is equivalent to approximately 365,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boed). Eni and its partners aim to reach plateau production in excess of 2.7 bcfd in 2019.
Egypt's / Eni's divisor: 365,000 boe / 2 billion cubic feet per day = 5,479. I generally use a divisor of 6,001. Motley Fool uses 6,000.

How does the Bakken compare with the Zohr?

June, 2018, data for North Dakota:
  • Natural gas: 2,300,103 MCF/day = 383,287 boepd
For newbies: the Bakken is an oil play, not a natural gas play. Natural gas, in the big scheme of things, has been a "hassle" for the oil operators, and a huge problem during the boom.

The "A-Ha!" Moment -- When Will The Bull Market End? When Will "The Longest US Economic Expansion On Record" End? -- September 13, 2018


September 16, 2018: in the original post, I noted that CNBC anchors continue to try to talk the market down, asking almost daily when the economic expansion will end and/or the bull market will end. It will end this autumn when the GOP loses the US House (and very possibly the US Senate). We may not see the numbers change overnight but once a) taxes are increased; b) regulations are back in vogue; and, c) and the transfer of wealth through global warming scams returns, the gains seen under Trump will disappear. This is not rocket science.

Original Post 

This is really, really cool.

"Everyone" recalls how "everyone" anticipated the market crashing if Trump were to be elected president.

Now, fast forward to September 13, 2018.

I don't know if readers are following the #1 recurring story on CNBC or not, but this is the #1 recurring story on CNBC. The issue comes up almost every day and has been coming up almost every day for the past year.

Quick! What is that issue?

A: this is the "longest bull market" on record. When will it come to the end, and what will bring it to an end.

A: sometimes they call it the "longest economic expansion" on record. But the same question: when and what will bring the "longest economic expansion" to an end?

Every time the talking heads get into the discussion, which is almost every day, the talking heads go through a litany of possibilities, things that will end the "longest economic expansion."

So, let's say the list is made of sixteen items. Not worth going through the list -- it's always the same old thing (s).

But interestingly, the list of sixteen does not include the "elephant in the room."

I'll let you think about it for a day or so, and then if I remember I will provide the "elephant-in-the-room" answer.

Hint: it's not rocket science.

Another hint: once you have the answer, you will know the date the bull market will end; when the "longest economic expansion" will end.

By the way, I feel strongly that technically, this is the "longest economic expansion" on record but that's only because the "interruption" in this economic expansion was so short, it was never seen. It lasted less than 24 hours.

See my comments/rationale at this post.

"The longest economic expansion on record" is a meme, a trope, and is not quite accurate. At least not in the movie I'm watching.

In case you don't like clicking on links, here is that post:

"Everyone" is talking about how long the current period of economic expansion has lasted, saying that it is now the longest on record. Some think the economic expansion still has legs; but others, think it will "soon" come to an end. CNBC is generally tries to talk the market down (my two cents worth). It's my perception that even those who think the expansion will "soon" come to an end, don't think it will be as "soon" as next year (2019).

I have not followed economic cycles. I know nothing about them except what the "average" person on the street might know.

A couple of things from the graph:
  • first, and I was surprised by this, the current expansion is still almost a year shorter than the longest one (the one that began in 1991)
  • most surprising: how short the periods of economic expansion lasted after WWII
    • 1945: 3 years
    • 1949:  3.5 years
  • so much changed after 1933, I don't think it's worthwhile to go back farther than 1945 when considering economic cycles; some might argue going farther back than 1969 is even going back too far
I'm absolutely convinced that the current economic expansion had two (2) periods, both set in motion by entirely different events.

The current expansion is said to have begun in 2009 and has gone on without interruption; it began after coming out the second worst downturn in US history; at some point, the economy had to turn.

Had the pundits been correct, the market (and possibly the economy) would have tanked immediatly after Trump's election (November) and it was going to take two to three years to recover.

Had that happened, the graphic above would show:
  • economic expansion for 6.5 years -- not atypical for for modern-era America -- ending in late 2016
  • the next economic expansion would have begun in 2018; we would now be into our first year of another period of new economic expansion (all things being equal)
  • "all things being equal" -- had the market tanked in 2016/2017, it is unlikely Trump would have gotten the tax cut or the other changes that propelled the economy we are seeing now; he likely would have been impeached by now if the Trump election had put the US into a depression
  • however, assuming that "all things being equal" -- that Trump persevered and his policies went into effect, the economy would have righted itself, and taken off
Bottom line:
  • I would suggest breaking up the red line in the graphic above that begins in 2009 into two separate lines:
  • the first segment would begin in 2009; end in 2016
  • the second segment would begin in 2017 and extend to the present day
If one does and if one considers a typical economic expansion cycle to last six years in the modern era, we still have four years of this economy growing.

My two cents worth.

Oasis Reports Another Huge Bakken Well -- Thursday, September 13, 2018; President Trump Threatens Mother Nature -- She Responds -- Hurricane Florence Drops From Category 4 To Category 2 In Less Than 12 Hours, And Hasn't Reached Landfall Yet -- But It's Still A Dangerous Storm

NG fill rate, link rate: for newbies -- this is quite incredible, this is historic -- this is something none of us have seen in years, breaking below the 5-year low, and the gap is widening as we move into autumn and fall -- as I've said before, if this is a cold winter and it turns out there are no problems with adequate natural gas, it tells me that tracking this metric is fairly unimportant.

Update: Mother Nature blinked ... again. Last night, just before going to bed, I wrote:
" ... apparently the president called Mother Nature, threatened the old lady with sanctions if she didn't moderate the storm. Mother Nature blinked. The hurricane has been downgraded from Category 4 to Category 3 -- and hasn't even hit landfall yet. Can't make this stuff up."
This morning, it turns out, Hurricane Florence was downgraded once again -- now it's a Category 2, hasn't reached landfall, but to save face, the soundbite, "... but it's still a dangerous storm."
Meet the Shalennials: from Bloomberg -- CEOs under 40 years of age making millions in Texas shale. 

Weekly jobs report, pending:
  • actual: 204K 
  • consensus: 210K
  • prior: 203K, so, if accurate, the consensus would mean an increase of 7,000 week-over-week
  • Hurricane Florence will affect numbers for next month or so, but wont' affect today's numbers
Fake news? No, probably just late. The EIA says that the US likely became the world's biggest oil producer earlier this year. 
America likely overtook Russia and Saudi Arabia in terms of oil output to become the world’s biggest producer earlier this year, according to the Energy Information Administration.
U.S. crude output exceeded that of Saudi Arabia in February for the first time in more than two decades, based on preliminary estimates from the agency’s Short-Term Energy Outlook. In June and August, it overtook Russia for the first time since 1999.
The EIA expects U.S. oil output to continue to exceed Russian and Saudi production for the rest of 2018 and in 2019. Growth has shot up in recent years from areas such as the Permian basin in West Texas and New Mexico.
Pipelines. Re-posting. From Rigzone.
Oil producers in the Permian Basin appear to be worried that key pipeline projects to boost takeaway capacity from the region might not hit their 2019 targeted start-up dates.
Wood Mackenzie noted that Permian oil production is ramping up at “breakneck speed,” with growth estimated at more than 400,000 barrels per day year-over-year on average through 2022. The study’s authors contend the production surge is overwhelming takeaway capacity within the Permian, causing oil and gas to sell inside the basin at steep discounts to national indexes. To illustrate, they noted that significant pipeline capacity constraints as recently as 2015 caused the Mid-Cush WTI discount to widen to $20 per barrel. As a result, many Permian operators have turned to derivatives to hedge against the risk of price differentials growing wider, Wood Mackenzie stated.
AMLO: leading from behind, a recipe for disaster -- Mexico's president-elect says "people" -- not the government -- should decide on nation's new airport, throwing into doubt the country’s biggest public-works project and billions in investment and debt.

La Mer. Impossible for me to listen to this song without recalling Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy, perhaps the most incredible love story ever. The producer apparently used an uncut version recorded live in 1976 at the Olympic Theater in Paris.

La Mer, Julio Iglesias

The bullet train update: computer modeling says California's bullet train can meet 2-hour, 40-minute timeline, LA to SF. That's computer modeling, and this is the GIGO:
Computer simulations conducted earlier this year by the authority show the bullet train is three minutes and 10 seconds inside the legal mandate.
Such a tight margin of error has some disputing whether the rail network will regularly hit that two-hour-40 minute time, in part because the assumptions that went into those simulations are highly optimistic and unproven. The premise hinges on trains operating at higher speeds than virtually all the systems in Asia and Europe; human train operators consistently performing with the precision of a computer model; favorable deals on the use of tracks that the state doesn’t even own; and amicable decisions by federal safety regulators.
To get within the "legal mandate," my hunch is the modelers re-ran the program tightening the parameters with each iteration until the goal was met. And it appears every data input had to be optimized to meet the "legal mandate."  

The bullet train update, part 2: California's bullet train is ... drum roll ... eleven (11) years behind schedule. It appears that southern California's are bearing the brunt of cost increases .... for improvements in north California. Let's see ... what do we call that? Oh, yes, that's right -- bait and switch. Pretty funny. But eleven years behind schedule. I think the rule of thumb for a project of this magnitude, each year of delay results in a price increase of $1 billion. So far, the $77 billion project has more than doubled in cost and is more than 11 years behind schedule. And yes, here it is, the new cost projections ... drum roll .... $100 billion --- that's $23 billion or $2 billion/ year increase in costs.

Back to the Bakken

Wells coming off the confidential list today --
Thursday, September 13 2018
  • 34356, SI/NC, XTO, Bobcat Federal 14X-35A, Bear Creek, no production data,
  • 34247, 3,463, WPX, Otter Woman 34-27HEL, Mandaree, 51 stages; 8.6 million lbs, t7/18; cum 4K 7/18 (full month)
  • 32964, 978, Oasis, Ceynar 5198 12-5 5T, Banks, a huge well, 50 stages; 4.1 million lbs; t3/18; cum 104K in less than four months; now off line;
Here we go again: another pipeline proposed to go under the Native American-controlled Missouri River where hunting and fishing is a way of life for millions of Lakota and Chippewa. The pipeline would be buried 140 feet below the riverbed, but probably needs to be 141 feet below the riverbed to satisfy Why-no-na. A $30 million Kinder Morgan project: either this or flare 130 million cf/day = 22,000 boepd.

Correction: a reader questioned the " ... millions of Lakota and Chippewa." The reader is correct. I forgot the fighting Schwa. Adding in the latter, the number of Native Americans who rely on fishing and hunting along North Dakota rivers and creeks is numbered in the "hundreds of millions." This does not include the Alaskan Inuit who kayak from Utqiaġvik to Garrison every summer for the salmon run. 

Active rigs:
Active Rigs65553569199

RBN Energy: what happened to the northeast gas takeaway constraints, part 3.
For the first time in years, natural gas takeaway capacity constraints from the Marcellus/Utica producing region appear to be easing, even as production volumes from the area continue to record new highs. That’s allowed regional supply prices this year to strengthen dramatically relative to national benchmark Henry Hub. A closer look at pipeline flow data indicates these developments stem from shifting gas flows that coincide with the ramp-up of Energy Transfer Partners’ Rover Pipeline. In today’s blog, we continue our update of the Northeast gas market with the latest on Rover’s gas receipts, along with its effects on other regional takeaway capacity and price relationships.
This is Part 3 in our series looking at recent shifts in the U.S. Northeast’s natural gas market. First, we started with a macro look at the critical role the Northeast gas production continues to play in the overall U.S. supply-demand picture. Lower-48 gas production in 2018 to date has averaged ~8 Bcf/d higher year-on-year. Nearly 50% of that growth has come from the Northeast. Moreover, given that the Northeast produces much more gas than it needs, the bulk of that incremental supply has flowed out of the region to other markets, including the Midwest and Gulf Coast states. Marcellus/Utica volumes have more than doubled in the five years since 2013, climbing by 16 Bcf/d to an average of 28 Bcf/d in 2018 to date, up from about 12 Bcf/d in 2013.
Until now, production has continued to outpace takeaway capacity, with incremental production volumes quickly inundating any available space on the pipes and keeping supply-area prices at severe discounts compared to other markets .
However, that imbalance has seen a dramatic — albeit partial — correction this year. Even as Marcellus/Utica supply continues to set record highs this summer, prices at Dominion South (Dom S) — the representative pricing hub — have strengthened compared to prior years. After tanking to more than $1/MMBtu discounts versus Henry Hub each of the past four summers, Dom S cash prices this July and August averaged less than $0.40/MMBtu behind Henry.
This shift has coincided with the step-change in Northeast takeaway capacity brought on by the start-up of ETP’s Rover Pipeline, which has been phasing in westbound capacity from southeastern Ohio since last September (2017).
Rover Pipeline flows have climbed from less than 1 Bcf/d with the initial start-up to nearly 3 Bcf/d now, as additional supply laterals were completed. The most recent bump comes from the new Majorsville lateral from West Virginia to Ohio, which was approved for service on August 23 and, within days, ramped up to nearly 400 MMcf/d.
Another lateral — Burgettstown — was approved at the same time but receipts from there have been near zero so far. The Burgettstown lateral will be supplied by MarkWest’s 200-MMcf/d Harmon Creek gas processing plant, due in service in the fourth quarter of 2018, and ETP’s Revolution processing plant, which is reportedly completed and awaiting full approval of the remaining supply laterals — Sherwood and Columbia Gas Transmission (CGT). Rover filed for federal approval of these two laterals last Friday (August 31).