Thursday, November 14, 2019

CLR Has Fracked The Uhlman Wells In Banks Oil Field -- November 14, 2019

Link here.

Random Update Of An EOG Liberty LR Well In Parshall Oil Field That Will Report 50K+ In First Full Month Of Production -- November 14, 2019

The well:
  • 33511, drl--> conf,  EOG, Liberty LR 50-1109H, Parshall, producing; 54K first full month;

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

Random Update Of Several EOG Liberty LR Wells In Parshall Oil Field -- November 14, 2019

EOG's Liberty LR (long reach) wells In Parshall oil field are tracked here. Waiting for these wells to be drilled or come off the confidential list. Note that #23958 will be a 50K+ well.

The wells:

  • 33434, loc, EOG, Liberty LR 109-1109H,
  • 33433, loc-->conf, EOG, Liberty LR 42-1109H,
  • 33432, drl-->conf, EOG, Liberty LR 43-1109H,
  • 30595, loc, EOG, Liberty LR 30-2321H,
  • 30594, loc, EOG, Liberty LR 108-2321H,
  • 30593, loc, EOG, Liberty LR 29-2321H,
  • 23958, lo-->conf, EOG, Liberty LR 107-1109H,
Have any reported any production?
DateOil RunsMCF Sold

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

A Whiting Rolla Federal Well Goes Over 500K Bbls Cumulative -- November 14, 2019

This page will not be updated. This well is tracked elsewhere. Whiting's Rolla Federal wells have been reported often.

Here's one that has recently gone over the 500K mark.
  • 32329, 2,861, Whiting, Rolla Federal 11-3-1TFHU, t10/16; cum 539K 9/19;
Full production profile:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Dow Futures Jump Almost 100 Points -- Early Evening -- November 14, 2019

Something going on? Dow futures this evening jump almost 100 points. Late afternoon there was talk of some possible China trade breakthrough. Checking twitter, that seems likely. Also, "US likely to extend limited export waiver for Huawei."

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

And Trump won't be mentioned:

Gasoline Demand -- November 14, 2019

Link here.

The Staggering Bakken -- The WPX Lawrence Bull Wells In South Fork --- November 14, 2019

This page won't be updated.

The WPX Lawrence Bull wells in South Fork have been updated. These are incredibly huge wells.

I'm going to post the results of just one well, but look at this: 314K in ten months (that would be less than a year). And the frack? Unremarkable.

The well:
  • 34650, 2,847, WPX, Lawrence Bull 1-12HC, 50 stages; 8.5 million lbs; South Fork, t12/18; cum 314K 9/19;
Fantastic production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Only One New Permit Today; WTI Holds At Just Under $57-- November 14, 2019

Ag disaster: reading the stories closely reveals the "ag disaster" this year was due to US cooling, not global warming:
  • [Minneapolis] Star-Tribune: North Dakota/Minnesota sugar beet harvest worst in 75 years -- wet and cold
  • zerohedge, November 13, 2019
Market talk:
  • Walmart earnings jump; not affected at all by tariffs; China might get the message; Walmart finding other sources for products affected by tariffs
  • Walmart more than holding its own against Amazon
  • if one wants a rotisserie chicken for dinner? Walmart, not Amazon
    • five-minute walk to my local Tom Thumb grocer: a rotisserie chicken for $9.99
    • five-minute drive to my local Walmart: a rotisserie chicken for $4.98
    • 15-minute drive to nearest Costco: a rotisserie chicken for $4.95
    • five-minute drive to my local "Whole Pay-Check" 
  • why "Whole Foods" is banking on rotisserie chicken, January 17, 2018 -- about two years ago;
AAPL: although it traded lower by the close, AAPL hit an intra-day record, $264.88; but the buzz on Wall Street -- time to sell -- just as we go into Apple's best quarter (generally speaking, based on historical data -- previously linked). Again, see disclaimer below.

In The Air Tonight, Phil Collins

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, career, travel, job, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

Active Rigs5664543864

One new permit today, #37182 (actually this one was from yesterday, also):
  • Operator: Whiting
  • Field: Glass Bluff (Williams County)
  • Comments: 
    • Whiting has a permit for a Klose permit in Glass Bluff oil field, section 23-151-103
    • three existing permits/wells on that pad:
      • 36936, loc,
      • 20144, 751, Whiting, Klose 151-103-26B-35-1H, Glass Bluff, t3/12; cum 182K 9/19;
      • 36937, loc,
    • this area has had little activity; one would really question whether this is tier 2; maybe even tier 3, and yet Whiting must have found something it likes here

Notes From All Over, Part 3 -- Happy New Year! -- MDU -- November 14, 2019

MDU Resources increases dividend for 29th consecutive year. Press release.
  • previous: 20.25 cents/share; a 2.5% increase in quarterly dividend
  • new: 20.75 cents/share
  • annualized: 83 cents/share (was 81 cents/share)
  • at share price of $29, pays 2.86% (was paying 2.78%)
  • to stockholders of record: December 12, 2019
  • payable on January 1, 2020
  • announced November 14, 2019
Notes For The Granddaughters

From 1421: The Year China Discovered America, Gavin Menzies, 2002, page 91:
Western methods of astronomy embodied the principles first enunciated by Greek astronomers such as Aristotle and Ptolemy, basing latitude on the equator.

In Chinese astronomy, latitude was determined not by the distance north of the equator but by the distance from the Polar Star, Polaris. A bright and easily identifiable star, Polar, sits directly above the North Pole, billions of miles out in space.

When viewed from the North Pole, the Polar Star, Polaris, is directly above the observer at 90° latitude; at the equator it sits on the horizon at 0° altitude or 0° latitude. Measuring its height above the horizon (altitude) enables the navigator to calculate his latitude.

Moreover, since Polaris is due north it enables magnetic variation -- the difference between due north and the magnetic north of a compass -- to be determined and adjustments made.

Notes From All Over, Part 2 -- November 14, 2019

Off the net for awhile. Slow, slow day.

ISO-New England, link here. At $150/MWh, why aren't they turning on the windmills and the solar panels?

Link here.

EIA Weekly Petroleum Report -- November 14, 2019

Weekly EIA petroleum report: due out at 9:30 a.m. CT. Link here. API reported a slight build yesterday; my hunch today -- a huge build will be reported by EIA. LOL. I just made that up. I have no idea what the EIA will report. Here we go (9:47 a.m. CT) -- looks like it is delayed -- won't be out until 10:00 a.m. CT. Okay, finall, 10:01 a.m. CT:
  • US crude oil in storage, week-over-week: increased by 2.2 million bbls
    WTI: immediately upon release: $57.66 (up 54 cents for the day)
  • US crude oil in storage: 449.0 million bbls; about 3% above the five-year average
  • refiners operating at 87.8% capacity; very low but not as bad as it's been recently
  • imports for the four-week period, down almost 20% compared to same four-week period a year ago
  • jet fuel supplied was up 5.5% compared with same four-week period last year -- similar to what we've seen all year
  • WTI, fifteen minutes after report released, giving traders time to react -- WTI holds; remains in the green; up 23 cents for the day;

Re-balancing (note: weeks 6 - 42 hidden to make spreadsheet manageable):

Week Ending
Million Bbls Storage
Week 0
November 21, 2018
Week 1
November 28, 2018
Week 2
December 6, 2018
Week 3
December 12, 2018
Week 4
December 19, 2018
Week 5
December 28, 2018
Week 43
September 18, 2019
Week 44
September 26, 2019
Week 45
October 2, 2019
Week 46
October 9, 2019
Week 47
October 17, 2019
Week 48
October 23, 2019
Week 49
October 30, 2019
Week 50
November 6, 2019
Week 51
November 14, 2019

While we are waiting for the report, what else? Nothing. Wow, what a slow day.

Three biggest social media memes right now:
  • Jeffrey Epstein
  • Beto
  • Kaepernick
Like Julian Castro, Beto will never fade away. The other seven dwarfs will fade away after their fifteen minutes of fame are up. Even Steyer.

Notes From All Over, Part 1 -- November 14, 2019

First things first: Apple, Inc., was scheduled to pay its quarterly dividend today. Tim Cook owns around 900,000 shares. If so, he should receive a check for about $700,000 today. At one time, he still may be, the largest AAPL shareholder was Arthur Levinson without around 1.2 million shares of AAPL. Steve Jobs accumulated more wealth from Disney than from Apple. Whatever. How did I get on this track? Time to jump off.

Weekly EIA petroleum report: due out at 9:30 a.m. CT. Link here. API reported a slight build yesterday; my hunch today -- a huge build will be reported by EIA. LOL. I just made that up. I have no idea what the EIA will report.

The Linton-DAPL hearing as reported by Reuters

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Oil quickies:
Consider the source: OPEC's Barkindo -- "shale producers are concerned that their slowdown is becoming a 'fast deceleration'" -- CNBC -- November 13, 2019. That's very, very possible but I sure wouldn't consider OPEC my best source on this. Nor CNBC. And when CNBC leads with rig count I know they do not understand tight oil. Later: now we get this, corroborating my initial thoughts --

Market: this market just refuses to retreat. Day after day of record highs, and even today, no sign of major pullback At least not yet. Well, there we go. When I wasn't looking the Dow just moved into the green.
  • AAPL: down two cents;
  • SRE: down a penny;
  • D: up 37 cents; 52-week high was $83.73
  • UNP: up 35 cents; now at $175.89; 52-week high was $180.54
  • EW: down one percent
  • BAX: down 16 cents
The Movie Page

TCM -- Turner Classic Movies -- channel 68 here in the DFW (TX) metropolitan area -- has done it again. The line-up is obviously very, very well planned out.

Yesterday, the US House opened televised "witch hunt" proceedings -- just after Halloween -- so coincidental. I can't think of a better movie than Dr Strangelove to show at this time, and guess what, in prime time last night: Dr Strangelove. I have never watched the whole movie straight through. I do think the oft-seen trailer with Slim Pickens riding a nuclear bomb ruined an otherwise incredible movie. Without question, George Patton aka George C. Scott, was over the top. He should have won Best Actor that year. 1965 -- Rex Harrison, My Fair Lady -- won. At the time, the movie was seen by many as a "pinko" movie -- their words, not mine. But after seeing it again last night, it was all about the characters and writing. The plot hardly mattered. It easily could be seen as a Coen Bros film.

One digression: the scenes inside/outside the B-52 really were quite good. I particularly enjoyed the scene arming the bomb; compare that with the switchology in Apollo 13

But watching this movie in context with the Trump witch trials is / was priceless.

By the way, the other day I was talking with my wife about AFI's top 100 films vs the films that seem to be household names -- movies that come up in conversation more often than others. For example:
Casablanca, Mary Poppins, Dr Zhivago, Gone With The Wind. On the other hand, some movies on the AFI list and some movies not on the list that people seem not to mention much but are incredibly good: Lawrence of Arabia; Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy; Patton come to mind.

I personally think Tinker, Tailor is the best movie ever.

So, what distinguishes the movies on that first list (names that come up often in household conversations) and those on the second list (movies not talked about much in casual conversation)?

Answer: a strong female lead. Quick, name an actress in Lawrence of Arabia. In Tinker, Tailor (yes, there was one). In Patton.

Even AFI's #1, Citizen Kane. I don't associate a strong female lead with that movie. But then again, I've never seen it.

And we move on.

Three Wells Coming Off The Confidential List Today -- November 14, 2019

Active rigs:

Active Rigs5564543864

Wells coming off confidential list today -- Thursday, November 14, 2019: 49 for the month; 144 for the quarter:
  • 36032, SI/NC, RimRock, Skunk Creek 12-10-11-16H3, South Fork, no production data, 33-025-03673; FracFocus - no frack data; #19587 -- off line since 3/19; #20926 -- off line since 3/19;
  • 34882, SI/NC, Hess, AN-Norby-152-94-0409H-4, Antelope, no production data, 33-053-08530; fracked 9/29/19 - 10/12/19; #17609 -- off line as of 8/19;
  • 32053, 705, Oasis, O M Erickson 5501 44-7 8BX, 36 stages; 5.9 million lbs; includes ceramic; Missouri Ridge, t5/19; cum 80K 9/19; #22498 -- never off line; unremarkable; #19952 off line, summer, 2019; back on line, 7/19; unremarkable;
RBN Energy: US propane now knotted with the Far East's enigmatic world of FEI and Ginga.
U.S. production and exports of propane have soared through the 2010s, and an increasing share of the propane loaded onto gas carriers at U.S. Gulf Coast terminals is headed to the Far East. The numbers are staggering. So far in 2019, 57% of propane produced from U.S. gas processing plants and refineries has been sent overseas, with about half of that total moving to Asian markets. With exports to Asia now such an integral piece of the propane supply/demand balance, the price of U.S. propane during most of the year is influenced more by the markets in Japan, South Korea and China than it is by demand in Iowa, Michigan and Pennsylvania. The challenge for U.S. propane marketers, producers and exporters is that, to the uninitiated, the Asia propane market is quite convoluted, being dominated by obscure market mechanisms known as FEI and Ginga. Today, we continue our series on international LPG trading with an explanation of how these mechanisms work together to establish propane prices in Asia and, by extension, the Gulf Coast.
I Keep Forgetting They Wrote "Islands In The Stream"

Three-Song Medley, the Bee Gees