Sunday, January 7, 2018

The CCU Red River Wells -- A Graphic Update -- January 7, 2018

The BR CCU Red Rivers wells are tracked here; this is a graphic update; this page will not be updated.

The graphic:

The wells:
  • 32330, 1,008, BR, CCU Dakotan 8-2-16 TFH, Corral Creek, t3/17; cum 87K 11/17;
  • 32331, 2,204, BR, CCU Red River 1-2-16 MBH, Corral Creek, t3/17; cum 191K 11/17;
  • 27267, 2,525, BR, CCU Red River 34-9MBH, Corral Creek, t6/14; cum 264K 11/17;
  • 27268, 1,803, BR, CCU Red River 34-9TFH, Corral Creek, t6/14; cum 118K 11/17;
  • 27269, 2,324, BR, CCU Red River 24-9MBH, Corral Creek, t6/14; cum 208K 11/17;
  • 30777, 1,960, BR, CCU Red River 7-2-15TFH, Corral Creek, t10/15; cum 156K 11/17;
  • 30778, 1,844, BR, CCU Red River 8-2-15MBH, Corral Creek, t9/15; cum 208K 11/17;
  • 30779, 2,325, BR, CCU Gopher 1-2-15TFH, Corral Creek, t9/15; cum 163K 11/17;
  • 30780, 2,525, BR, CCU Gopher 2-2-15MBH, Corral Creek, t9/15; cum 221K 11/7;

The Market And Energy Page, And Other Stuff, T+351 -- January 7, 2018

Global warming low temperatures broke records along portions of the East Coast from Maine to Florida, data points:
  • records set in Burlington, VT; Portland, ME
  • also records set in Worcester, MA; Providence, RI; Hartford, CT
  • Boston tied a low-temperature record set more than a century ago, and well before the US' industrial age and before Algore noted that things were changing; compared to Hettinger, ND, Boston was rather warm, only going to a "minus 2"
Massachusetts, The Bee Gees

Futures mean squat, but I would rather see green than red:

And, of course, tomorrow on CNBC, the anchors, except for one or two, will talk all day about the imminent correction. Whatever.

Arctic Blast With Snow Beginning Late Tuesday NIght -- The Bakken -- January 7, 2018

Special weather alert for northern/western North Dakota, 324 PM CST Sun Jan 7 2018 /224 PM MST Sun Jan 7 2018:
Including the cities of Crosby, Bowbells, Powers Lake, Lignite, Columbus, Portal, Mohall, Glenburn, Sherwood, Bottineau, Rolla, Dunseith, Rolette, Shell Valley, St. John, Williston, New Town, Stanley, Parshall, Minot, Velva, Towner, Drake, Rugby, Watford City, Killdeer, Halliday, Beulah, Hazen, Center, Garrison, Washburn, Underwood, Wilton, Turtle Lake, Mcclusky, Goodrich, Harvey, Fessenden, Carrington, Beach, Medora, Dickinson, Mandan, Bismarck, Steele, Tappen, Jamestown, Marmarth, Mott, New England, Elgin, Carson, New Leipzig, Bowman, Hettinger, Fort Yates, Selfridge, Solen, Linton, Strasburg, Napoleon, Gackle, Lamoure, Edgeley, Kulm, Wishek, Ashley, Oakes, and Ellendale.


An Arctic cold front will move southeast across North Dakota late Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Gusty northwest winds will usher in the arctic air, with temperatures falling through the day on Wednesday across northern and western North Dakota.
There is also a chance of light snow on Wednesday, with the possibility of some blowing and drifting snow. Dangerous wind chill temperatures could develop Wednesday night through Thursday night.

Another storm system could bring chances of snow to our area Friday, followed by another arctic airmass to dominate the weather next weekend.
It's gonna be cold. Get your grey suits on!
Three idiots in grey satin. If you can't afford one, time share with one of these three. LOL. What was she thinking?

Meanwhile, nights in white satin:

Nights In White Satin, Moody Blues

Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Coming Week -- January 7, 2018

Monday, January 15, 2018: 25 wells for the quarter; 25 wells for the year

Sunday, January 14, 2018: 25 wells for the quarter; 25 wells for the year
33519, conf, Hess, BW-Hedstrm-149-100-1201H-5, Ellsworth, no production data,
33219, conf, Kraken Operating, Feller 22-15 6H, Lone Tree Lake, no production data,
32447, conf, Whiting, Buckman 24-21PH, Bell, producing, high month: 10K 11/17 

Saturday, January 13, 2018: 22 wells for the quarter; 22 wells for the year
33218, conf, Kraken Operating, Feller 22-15 5H,  Lone Tree Lake, no production data,
32352, conf, CLR, Hereford Federal 3-20H,  Elm Tree, nice well; high month, 25K 10/17;
29905, conf, Hess, BW-Hedstrom-149-100-1201H-4, Ellsworth, no production data,

Friday, January 12, 2018: 19 wells for the quarter; 19 wells for the year
31623, SI/NC, BR, Craterhawk 8-14 UTFH-ULW, Antelope, no production data,
29549, 1,518, CLR, Bonneville 6-23H1, Rattlesnake Point, Three Forks 1, 55 stages; 10 million lbs, t8/17; cum 73K 11/17; the Bonneville wells are tracked here;
Thursday, January 11, 2018: 17 wells for the quarter; 17 wells for the year
32829, 2,513, Hess, BB-Lars Rothie-LW-151-95-3229H1, Blue Buttes, Three Forks, 60 stages; 4.2 million lbs, t10/17; cum 44K 11/17;
32353, 1,558, CLR, Hereford Federal 1-20H, Elm Tree, 69 stages; 25 million lbs sand small/large, t8/17; cum 75K 11/17;
32332, SI/NC, BR, CCU Red River 3-2-16 TFH, Corral Creek, no production data, CCU Red River wells are tracked here;

Wednesday, January 10, 2018: 14 wells for the quarter; 14 wells for the year
32828, 3,119, Hess, BB-Lars Rothie-151-95-3229H-8, Blue Buttes, 60 stages; 4.2 million lbs, t11/17; cum 40K 11/17;
32333, 129, BR, CCU Red River 3-2-16 MBH, Corral Creek, no production data,

Tuesday, January 9, 2018: 12 wells for the quarter; 12 wells for the year
32334, 244, BR, CCU Red River 4-2-16 TFH, Corral Creek, t12/17; cum --

Monday, January 8, 2018: 11 wells for the quarter; 11 wells for the year
33398, 3,291, WPX, Hidatsa North 14-23HX, Reunion Bay, 2 sections; Three Forks, 51 stages; 8.6 million lbs; sections 14/23-150-93;

32827, conf, Hess, BB-Lars Rothie-151-95-3229H-6, Blue Buttes, huge well;
30735, conf, Whiting, Privratsky 41-28PHU, Bell, producing; 10K first full month;
24878, 369, Nine Point Energy,  Larsen 157-101-28-33-3H, Otter, t7/17; cum 37K 11/17;

Sunday, January 7, 2018: 7 wells for the quarter; 7 wells for the year
32826, 2,708, Hess, BB-Lars Rothie-151-95-3229H-6, Blue Buttes, t11/17; cum 25K 11/17;
30324, 368, Lime Rock Resources, Raphael Stroh 5-13-24H-143-97L,  Fayette; 4 sections; t7/17; cum 62K 11/17;

Saturday, January 6, 2018: 5 wells for the quarter; 5 wells for the year
32825, 921, Hess, BB-Lars Rothie-151-95-3229H-5, Blue Buttes, t11/17; cum 8K over 13 days;
32760, 1,132, Oasis, Oyloe 5199 42-23 7T, North Tobacco Garden, t7/17; cum 97K 11/17;

The Apple Page -- Nothing About The Bakken -- January 7, 2018


Later, 3:54 p.m. CT: incredible. That's all I have to say about the Air Pods. If you have an iPhone, you need a pair of Air Pods. It's that simple. 

Original Post 

From The Wall Street Journal a couple of days ago: Tim Cook stumbles at his specialty, shipping Apple products on time. Under CEO, the technology gian has been late delivering new devices. To the best of my knowledge, the writer did not mention Elon Musk. LOL
Of the three major new products since Mr. Cook became chief executive in 2011, both AirPods earbuds in 2016 and last year’s HomePod speaker missed Apple’s publicly projected shipping dates. The Apple Watch, promised for early 2015, arrived late that April with lengthy wait times for delivery. Apple also was delayed in supplying the Apple Pencil and Smart Keyboard, two critical accessories for its iPad Pro.
Fortune also had the story, "Apple sells out of AirPods before Christmas." 

Of the products mentioned, it appears Apple fans were nonplussed, as they say. I haven't seen that word used in a long time.

I had planned to get AirPods for my wife for Christmas. I watched the availability of AirPods at our local Apple store via the net, and the store "always" had them in. On the Saturday before Christmas I rushed over to the Apple Store to buy the earbuds but they were out.

No big deal. I played with the 12.5"-iPad Pro for awhile. An incredible piece of technology, and yes, I hope to have one by the end of the year (2018, or maybe 2019, no hurry).

A couple days later the Southlake Apple store received a new shipment and I bought a pair.

Hopefully, my wife won't be reading the blog this morning. We are celebrating a "second" Christmas with our two daughters; Laura flew in from Portland late last week and will be here for a week.

The efficiency at the Apple store is amazing. One walks in, talks to a "greeter" at the door. If one is going to buy something, one is immediately sent to an Apple associate who then orders the product to be brought up from the back room. I was sent over to Floyd, standing by the large Apple displays/monitors; he confirmed what I wanted; talked to someone on his microphone, and in minutes I was paying for a pair of new AirPods, which, by the way, were the last pair available for the day.

My wife thinks her iPhone battery needs replacing, so she has an appointment later this week for a replacement. When making her appointment she was told that if she "walked in" at 9:45 a.m. on most days, she would be seen almost immediately. The store opens at 10:00 but the lines start about  9:45.

So, she did that, and yes, she was seen at the genius bar immediately. They had already run out of batteries, but they told her they will notify her and hold a battery for her when the next shipment arrives. Meanwhile, they did "diagnostics" on her  iPhone and told her that the battery was fine.

She wants a new battery anyway, and she will get it replaced for $29.

Meanwhile, our older daughter had her battery replaced about two weeks ago for $79, before the big brouhaha. She has seen been told by Apple that they will reimburse her $50 for the $79 / $29 change in policy. She says she's fine. She's moved on.

By the way, back to the efficiency of the Apple Store, Normally, one or two "greeters" are at the front door. Now there are generally three "greeters" during peak traffic. Customers are quickly segregated into "buying a product" vs "needing support." Those customers "needing support" are immediately segregated into "battery replacement" vs "other."

The "battery replacement" line was the longest of the three lines. Buying a product takes less than ten minutes if one knows exactly what one wants. That was the fastest $172 ($159 + tax) I have spent in quite some time, except, of course, paying Amazon bills on-line every month.

Idle Time On Our Hands -- Looking For Whiting Oil History -- January 7, 2018


January 7, 2018: you have no idea how much I want to go on a cross-country trip after seeing a photo like this. I just watched the movie, The Founder, the story of Ray Kroc and McDonald's -- all along Route 66.

Original Post
Image from Google. One wonders if this might be the original building as it looks today:

A reader was interested in some old Whiting Oil history. He came across this photo on the internet:

This Whiting Bros service station is 15 miles east of Grants, NM, one mile north of I-40.

San Fidel, about 23 miles down the road from Grants, is a census-designated place in Cibola County, New Mexico, United States. Its population was 138 as of the 2010 census. San Fidel has a post office with ZIP code 87049, which opened on December 24, 1910.Wikipedia.

The reader was hoping to find a connection between this Whiting Bros service station and the current Whiting oil company operating in the Bakken. No such luck; maybe a reader knows more.

So, far this is all we know:
Whiting Brothers was established in 1926 as a chain of gasoline stations based in St. Johns and Holbrook, Arizona. At its peak, it operated more than one hundred filling stations (including at least forty on the former U.S. Route 66), fifteen motels and various truck stops under a slogan of "quality gas for less".
The business began to decline in the 1970s due to fuel shortages and a drop in traffic at its locations on the US Highway system as these roads were bypassed by Interstate highways. 
Stations in still-viable locations were sold off individually by the 1980s while many locations on roads long bypassed were simply abandoned. 
The reader opines:
Kenneth R. Whiting, Denver Co (deceased) Whiting Petroleum, may have been a son or grandson of one of the Whiting Brothers, but if so I can't find any connection.
Maybe someone knows more.

Updates from others:

North Dakota Grain Elevators, Co-ops -- Fallout From The Tax Bill --- January 7, 2018


January 9, 2018: The Wall Street Journal reports the story.

Original Post 

Link here.
An amendment co-authored by North Dakota Senator John Hoeven to the huge tax cut bill passed by Congress late last year, provides generous tax breaks to farmer-owned cooperatives and to farmers who sell grain to them. But it could create real problems for privately owned elevators. If it’s not fixed, somehow, there’s not a farmer anywhere who is going to want to do business with private elevators.

As the tax bill entered its final days in December, the bill’s authors (whoever they were) eliminated what was known as the Section 199 tax deduction, also known as the Domestic Production Activities Deduction (DPAD), a tax break for businesses that perform domestic manufacturing and certain other production activities (like farming). It was established by the American Jobs Creation Act of 2004 in an effort to ease the tax burden of domestic manufacturers and as a result make the investment in domestic manufacturing facilities more advantageous The IRS later ruled it applied to farming as well. As of the day Donald Trump signed the tax bill, it no longer exists.

Farm groups found out about it and lobbied like crazy to hold on to Section 199 the last weeks before the bill’s passage, but to no avail. Then somehow Hoeven snuck in a last minute amendment which put back in a form of the deduction, but only for farm cooperatives, and greatly increased its generosity. Beneficiaries are the co-ops, and the farmers who sell their grain to farm cooperatives, such as CHS or Land O’Lakes, or their local equity elevator, owned by its members. Under the amendment, the co-ops can take the deduction or pass it along to the farmers. In theory, it doesn’t really matter, because the farmers own the co-ops.

The problem is, it only applies to those cooperative-owned elevators. There’s another section of the new law that applies to farmers who sell their grain to local privately-owned elevators, or giant corporate-owned elevators like Cargill and ADM. They won’t get the tax break, which is substantial. So instead of a tax cut from this bill, those farmers could be facing big tax increases.
Read more at the linked article.

I don't have a dog in this fight, but three comments:
  • free market capitalism will solve this problem, if it's a problem at all
  • Congress can easily tweak the law now that the bill has been signed
  • private elevators will find ways to get around this (how many angels can dance on the head of a pin?)
Bottom line: Section 199 was going to be lost completely, but the GOP was able to salvage most of it. The rest can be handled/managed.

Some Market And Energy News -- Nothing About The Bakken -- January 7, 2018

First, Plug Power, from Motley Fool; the latter is not impressed with the profitability of the company but seems to be following it closely. This is the third or fourth article I've seen on Plug by Motley Fool. Have they changed their tune? From the second page of the story:
To add insult to injury, the company sold more stock over the period to raise cash, increasing the share count -- and diluting existing investors -- by 27%. This isn't a new thing for Plug Power or its investors, who have seen the company issue stock on a regular basis just about every year since going public. Over the past five years the company's share count has more than tripled, in part because the company has been forced to raise cash to fund the business. The company has also added about $40 million in debt over the past year.
For years the company has steadily burned through its cash and diluted investors. That situation hasn't changed in recent years, even as sales have improved.
Hydrogen fuel cells are far more viable today than at any point in history, and it's likely that their use will only grow from here, especially as hydrogen production costs fall and the infrastructure improves. At the same time, there will be opportunities for investors to do well. 
And eventually Plug Power could become one of the companies to profit. However, so far the company has only proved adept at destroying shareholder value, not making millionaires. Until management demonstrates it can meaningfully improve cash flows and turn the growth in demand for its products into better operating results, it remains a stock investors should probably avoid.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Second, Statoil, also from Motley Fool, gets a nice review.This is the second or third time I've read a positive story on Statoil, from other sources.

Third, Prius, from The Wall Street Journal, a very nice story. For the Chevy Bolt and Volt. LOL. The WSJ writer is not enamored with the Prius. Wow, it appears that the Prius is a lemon. Speaking of which, high school chemistry students often use lemons to show how electricity works.
Toyota took a halfhearted swing at PHEV with its previous generation Prius, using a barely-there 4.4 kWh battery providing an official range of 11 miles. The 2017 Prius Prime, with a new name to go with its bad-acid styling, roughly doubles those capacities, and yet it’s nowhere near enough. From its torpid performance to its fretful user experience—watching your EV range evaporate like spilled ether anytime you touch the accelerator—the Prime seems to be less an endorsement of PHEV than a repudiation.
What follows represents a change of heart: Being an advocate for vehicle electrification, I have regarded PHEV to be practical transitional technology in the next decade. After all, a large majority of car owners in the U.S. drive fewer than 30 miles a day. A PHEV allows them to drive some or all of their commutes on electric power; should the day take them further, the gas-powered engine can take over.
The Prime’s problem is fundamentally one of packaging, which is a pretty way to say the battery is too small to do any good. The Prime, like its siblings, is built on Toyota’s New Generation Vehicle Architecture rather than a dedicated platform. This cost-saving decision constrained the space and configuration available to the batteries. As it is, the Prime’s lithium-ion pack consumes nearly 5 more cubic feet of cargo space than a standard Prius, as well as the rear-center seat position.
In a 3,375-pound car (300 pounds more than standard Prius) that juice doesn’t take you very far or very fast. In EV mode the Prime accelerates to 60 mph in a shockingly deliberate 12 seconds. In hybrid mode (121 hp system net), it’s a bit quicker—10.2 seconds. These full-throttle exertions fill the cabin with the keening of engine, motors, transmission and power electrics, a chamber orchestra of mechanical lament. Oof. That will lighten your foot.
Fourth, Tesla. A reader asks a question with regard to EV sales: "Why are more Teslas sold in the last month of every quarter than in the two previous months of the same quarter, combined?"
I've noticed the same thing; never commented. I have no idea. It must be noted that Tesla is the only manufacturer out there that provides the number of vehicles "delivered", not "sold."
My hunch is that with a limited supply of Teslas, Elon Musk holds on to vehicles as long as possible for his own showrooms, etc., but gets the max delivered by the end of the quarter to coincide with quarterly earnings.
We visit the Tesla store often, and just before the end of 4Q17 (December, 2017) there were two Teslas in the showroom (there is room for three): one Model X and one Model S. When we visited just four days into the new quarter, they only had one, the Model S.
When we asked about the Model X, we were told, the Model X had just been leased (which, by the way, is another story - apparently Tesla is leasing more vehicles than selling). When we walked out back where they have five charging stations and have had five Teslas to show for the past few weeks, four days into the new quarter, they had only one. Four of five charging stations were unused. It was clear that this particular showroom had held the max number of Teslas to the end of the quarter (to show) and then "delivered" all but one or two just as the quarter ended.
And, finally, Spotify. Spotify's IPO will be the deal to watch in 2017. But it looks like the deal won't actually be an IPO in the traditional sense. See the linked article for more.