Saturday, December 28, 2019

The Bakken -- Simply Staggering -- December 28, 2019

Do you remember this well?
  • 31774, 5,058, Bruin, Fort Berthold 151-94-27A-34-16H, API: 33-053-07183, Antelope-Sanish; a staggering well; 55 stages; 14.4 million lbs according to operator; t7/18; cum 516K 10/19;
Full production profile:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

The graphic:

Wells of interest (note: two wells went over 500,000K cumulative):
  • 22707, 1,959, Bruin, Fort Berthold 151-94-26B-35-3H, Antelope-Sanish, t4/14; cum 588K 10/19; with jump in production, 4/19;
  • 22708, 1,776, Bruin, Fort Berthold 151-94-26B-35-2H, Antelope-Sanish, t4/14; cum 353K 10/19; with jump in production, 5/19;
  • 20328, 1,647, Bruin, Fort Berthold 151-94-26B-35-1H, Antelope-Sanish, t3/12; cum 570K 10/19; no jump in production;

Top Stories For 2019 -- In Progress

Top stories by month for the year of 2019 are here

As of January 31, 2020.

The Bakken, 2019. Summary. Pending.

Permits in North Dakota, by county, by field, by operator. Posted here.

Comment: this year, 2019, has the feel of a transition year in which the US economy literally broke away from the rest of the field. One gets the feeling that "2019" is setting the stage for the roaring 20's for the US. First decade in which it neither started nor ended with a recession. First time in history that a US president has not gotten embroiled in a "new" war. US reaches energy independence. For all the divisiveness in Washington, DC, the government was still able to pass a bipartisan $1.3 trillion budget to avert a government shutdown.


Elevator speech: the stories that dominated the Bakken in 2019:
  • the Bakken roared back in 2019; a boom by any other name is still a boom
  • North Dakota oil production hits new all-time records on almost record low number of active rigs
  • Harold Hamm, the face of the Bakken, steps down as CEO, but isn't going anywhere
  • CLR: damn the torpedoes -- full speed ahead 
  • T. Boone Pickens, dies, age 91
International, non-energy:
  • Boris Johnson, landslide victory; makes Brexit almost a sure thing
  • Perhaps what did not happen is the big story: North Korea becomes a non-story
International, energy 
  • Saudi Aramco IPO 
  • Drone/missile attack on Saudi export terminal
  • Global EV sales decline year-over-year; first time this has happened in history
National, non-energy:
National, energy:
  • US becomes energy independent;
  • US crude oil, condensates, natural gas -- proved reserves -- new all-time record
  • US net exporter of petroleum, petroleum products
  • US becomes the crude oil swing producer
Top Stories Of 2019
By Category
Top Story of The Year:
  • The Articles of Impeachment not forwarded to the US Senate; the Mueller Report does not "indict" President Trump;
  • The US economy: record low unemployment; longest expansion in history
The world:
  • North Korea becomes a non-story
Most surprising story of 2019:
  • For Art Berman: the Bakken is "back"
The most egregious story to come out of the Bakken:
The top US story:
  • The "fake" impeachment; the Mueller Report  
North Dakota, energy:
  • Multiple production records throughout the year
North Dakota economy:
  • record low unemployment continues
North Dakota, technology:
  • EOR pilot projects
Most exciting small non-operator in the Bakken:
  • NOG -- there really is no competition in this category
Most exciting micro operator in the Bakken

Most exciting small operator in the Bakken:
  • Bruin
Most exciting medium operator in the Bakken:
  • Slawson; 
  • Oasis, runner-up
Most exciting large operator in the Bakken:
  • MRO
  • Hess and CLR close runners-up for different reasons
Biggest deal:
  • OXY buys Anadarko
Most surprising deal:
  • OXY buys Anadarko
Record price per Bakken mineral acre, 2019:
Bakken operations, rigs:
  • Maybe averaged around 60 rigs throughout the year; dwindled to low 50s by end of the year;: 
Bakken operations, production
  • Records, records, and more records
Bakken operations, density:
  • Unitized fields (Hofflund, Grinnell) and high density projects increase (Long Creek Unit)
Top prediction (made in 2019): 

Record initial production:
  • Slawson, Torpedo #10; #31278; 
Biggest story in takeaway capacity:
  • New NGL pipeline
  • The year ends with no resolution of Washington State restrictions on CBR
  • Iowa Supreme Court rules in favor of DAPL
  • The year ends with ND regulators undecided about allowing DAPL to expand
  • Mega-fracks: 94-stage fracking;
  • Flaring on BLM getting worse, not better
Natural gas
  • Production setting all-time records
  • Davis refinery near the park is still on-track (or is it?)
Investment story of the year:
  • Plastics plant for western North Dakota -- not! Developer files for bankruptcy
The "other" Williston Basin formations:
  • Almost nothing.
Bakken economy (too many to list):
  • New Williston airport opens on schedule; huge success story
  • Long X Bridge replacement on track
New (or better-understood) oil patch jargon:
  • Advantaged oil
  • Full cycle, half cycle costs
  • Brownfield vs greenfield

Bakken economy -- Williston Economic Development (WED) top ten stories:
  • first flight lands at XWA
  • WED earns Bronze Award from International Economic Development Council
  • Sloulin redevelopment moves forward; Copeland secures 40 acres
  • Shawn Wenko named president of EDND Board
  • Williston leads North Dakota in Flex PACE incentives
  • Busted Knuckle, Hops and Berry, Cold Stone Creamery to open in Williston
  • WED launches Digital Community Gide
  • Shawn Wenko earns Chamber's Western Star Award
  • Williston Works podcast celebrates second season
  • WED employs Gonzaga summer interns

Random Note On That Record Bakken IP -- December 28, 2019

Following up that record IP.

The well:
  • 35093, 10,626, Hess, AN-Bohmbach-153-94-2734H-8, Antelope-Sanish, t4/19; cum 68K after 24 days;
The scout ticket:

Screenshot from the file report:

Flaring and total boe prodcution:
  • 131,590 MCF = 21,928 boe
  • crude oil, 68,402 bbls
  • total boe in 24 days, 4/19 = 90,330 boe
  • over 30 days that extrapolates to 112,913 boe

WPX Bison Wells In Squaw Creek Beginning To Report -- December 28, 2019

The incredible WPX Rachel Wolf wells remain off line. My hunch is that they are off line because the WPX Bison wells just to the west have just been fracked. If so, the Rachel Wolf wells will be back on line within the next two or three months.

When all of these wells come back on line, it will be most interesting to see what #19973 does.

The Bison wells:
  • 36017, 2.413, WPX, Bison 27-34HW, Squaw Creek, t10/19; cum 31K in 31 days;
  • 36018, 2.952, WPX, Bison 27-34HA, Squaw Creek, t10/19; cum 42K in 31 days;
  • 36019, 1,616, WPX, Bison 27-34HX, Squaw Creek, t10/19; cum 28K in 31 days;
Except for the production in the first full month, 10/19, the three wells look almost identical to this:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

The WPX Lion Wells Have Been Updated -- December 28, 2019

I track the WPX Lion wells in the Mandaree oil field at this site.

These are huge wells.

A typical WPX Lion well, with a relatively small/moderate frack:
  • 34960, 3,084, WPX, Lion 18-19HEL, 4 sections, 34 stages; 8.4 million lbs; Mandaree, t7/19; cum 164K 10/19; 
Production profile:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Definition of the perfect oil well: one that pays for itself in six months, then keeps producing for the next 35 years, meeting and/or exceeding its EUR.

It Appears The Whiting P Vance, Vance, And Vance Federal Wells Have Been Completed/Fracked And Are Back On Line -- December 28, 2019

I track Whiting P Vance, Vance, and Vance Federal wells at this site. If you check out that site today you will note a large number of DUCs. I've looked at a few; it appears all of these wells have been completed/fracked and will soon be reporting. Wells that were taken off line in 9/19 are now returning to production (10/19).

This page will not be updated.

It appears at least of one of the older P Vance wells has reported a jump in production:
  • 22189, 2,350, Whiting/KOG, P Vance 154-97-2-17-20-15H, Truax, 28 stages; 4 million lbs, t7/12; cum 289K 9/19; looks like an appreciable jump, 9/19;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Random Note On Tesla's Batteries -- December 28, 2019

How good are Tesla's batteries?
  • high-end Tesla batteries can be recharged up to 5,000 times and last a million miles.
Another way to look at this:
  • 12,000 miles per year
  • 300 miles between charges
  • 12,000 / 300 = 40 charges per year
  • 5,000 charges / 40 charges per year = 125 years.
Forty charges per year, or about one full charge per week. 

I've always said Tesla was a battery company disguised as a car company.

Tesla's gigafactory in China, from two days ago:
Tesla has built a new factory in China and intends to build its electric cars for the Asian market at the new facility. Reuters reported earlier this week that Tesla had secured a 10-billion-yuan loan in China. Tesla's stock has roared to record highs this month, and gained another 1.3% Thursday to close at $430.94.
From wiki:
Tesla Gigafactory 3 is a factory currently under construction in Shanghai, China, by Tesla, Inc.
The facility will produce battery cells along with Tesla Model 3 and Tesla Model Y cars, at an initial production rate target of 250,000 electric cars per year.
The Shanghai regional government approved the agreement to build the production facility in July 2018, and a long-term lease was signed for about 210 acres of land in October 2018.
Construction began in December 2018 with the installation of secure fencing and site offices. The General Assembly Building was nearly complete by August, 2019, and manufacturing line equipment was being installed for both batteries and automobiles.
News reports in August noted production could start as early as November 2019, and CNBC reports that Tesla is expected to manufacture more than 6,000 vehicles at Gigafactory 3 by year-end 2019.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, career, travel, job, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

Making America Great -- Wages Growing -- Fastest Rate In More Than A Decade -- December 28, 2019

From Axios, original story here.
Wages for nonsupervisory employees — who make up 82% of the workforce — are rising at the fastest rate in more than a decade. 
The big picture: Workers at the bottom of the pay scale have been feeling positive effects on their wages at the end of 2019 — especially when compared to those at the top.
Pay rates the bottom 25% of wage earners rose 4.5% in November from a year earlier, while wages for the top 25% of earners rose only 2.9%, per data from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
The bank also found that the rate of pay rises for low-skilled workers matched those for high-skilled workers last month for the first time since 2010.
Ah, yes, since 2010 -- the "lost decade."

Flashback: Hillary promised to put folks out of work; not raise wages.

The History Page

I have just re-read the first four chapters of The Battle For New York, Barnet Schecter, c. 2002. I completed my first reading of the entire book some time ago. I will put Schecter down for awhile now that I've got the setting sorted out (again), as well as the geography -- land and water -- of the New York area. My notes on that book are here.

I don't recall ever having read a biography of George Washington, but the biography of Washington in Schecter's book is incredibly fascinating.

Then, of all things, while reading The Anarchy, the story of the East India Company, by William Dalrymple, c. 2019, this from page 57:
That opportunity [to "take" India"] manifested itself even as the Carnatic Wars (a series of "wars" waged between French and British trading companies in India during the 1750s] were grinding to an inconclusive end in the mid-1750s.
For it was not just in India that Anglo-French rivalry was smouldering, ready to reignite  at the slightest spark. Instead the trail of gunpowder which ignited the next round of Anglo-French conflict began far away from India, on the frozen borderlands of America and New France -- what we today call Canada --a between the great lakes and the headwaters of the Ohio River.

On 21 June 1752, a party of French Indians led by the French adventurer Charles Langlade, who had a Huron wife and was also influential among the Seneca, Iroquois,  and Micmac, led a war party of 240 warriors down Lake Huron, across lake Erie and into the newly settled farmlands of British Ohio. Tomahawks at the ready, they fell on the British settlement of Pickawillany, achieving complete surprise. Only twenty British settlers managed to muster at the stockade. Of those, one was later scalped and another ceremonially boiled and the most delicious parts of his body eaten.

The violent raid spread a sense of instability and even terror among British traders and settlers as far as New York and Virginia. Within months, regular French troops, supported by indigenous guides, auxiliaries and large numbers of of Indian warriors were rumoured to be moving in large numbers into the headwaters of the Ohio Valley, and on 1 November the Governor of Virginia sent a  21-year-old militia volunteer north to investigate. His name was George Washington. So began the first act in what Americans still call the French and Indian Wars, and which is known in the rest of the world as the Seven Years (sic) War.
This time it would be total war, and properly global, fought on multiple continents and in ruthless advancement of worldwide British and French imperial interests. It would carry European arms and warfare from the Ohio to the Philippines, from Cuba to the coast of Nigeria, and from the Heights of Abraham outside Quebec to the marshy flatlands and mango groves of Plassey.

But the part of the globe it would transform most lastingly was India.
Wow, talk about serendipity. I put the first book down having come to a great spot to do so, and then to pick up a completely unrelated book and it seems to begin exactly where the first left off.

Wow, advice to the granddaughters: never quit reading. LOL.

An Enerplus Well Has Gone Over 500,000 Bbls Cumulative Crude Oil Production -- December 28, 2019

The Enerplus wells on the "Igneous Rock" pad have been drilled to depth and are now DUCs.

The Enerplus wells on the "Metamorphic Rock" pad have been updated; most are still permitted only; but one will go over the 500,000 bbls total crude oil produced by the end of December, 2019. A second one will go over 500,000 bbls next year (2020).

What Condition My Condition Is In

The Carus Wells Have Been Updated -- December 28, 2019

The Carus wells are huge. The Carus wells are tracked here and they have been updated.

This page will not be updated.

Random example of most recent Carus well coming off the confidential list, a Three Forks well.

The well:
  • 35548, 2,512, CLR, Carus 6-28H1, 42 stages; 12.8 million lbs; Cedar Coulee, t7/19; cum 154K 10/19;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Week 52: December 22, 2019 -- December 28, 2019

Narrative (link here): pending.

The most important under-reported story:
Top international non-energy story:
  • North Korea did not launch Christmas Eve / Christmas Day
Top international energy story:  

Top national non-energy story:
Top national energy story:

Top North Dakota non-energy story:

Top North Dakota energy story:

Geoff Simon's top North Dakota energy stories:
Production records, wet roads, schools: top 2019 stories
McKenzie County enrollment projected to double in 10 years
A Bismarck company was the highest bidder ...

Natural gas:

Legacy Fund Deposits Rise Ever So Slightly; Notes From All Over, Part 1 -- December 28, 2019

First things first: the week in pictures, from Power Line Perhaps my two favorites:

Legacy Fund. Link here. The state usually posts the deposits on the 22nd of the month; this month it was delayed to the 27th. Forgot to post it yesterday. Sorry. Hopefully it didn't cause anyone any problems.

North Korea: No Christmas Eve / Christmas Day present for the US? Connecting the dots explain it. News at eleven. LOL. Too much to do but I will come back to this. And there's always a chance something yet to happen. [Forgot to get back to this: the reason North Korea did not launch any missiles over Christmas is because China told them not to.]

Monthly cost of streaming services. I forgot to grab the link; from a story within the past few days. I assume "Prime Video" is "Amazon Prime Video." If so, the monthly price is an estimate, I suppose, because Prime Video is an "additional" benefit to the original Prime membership. If one only subscribes to Amazon Prime for the faster, "free" shipping, then the monthly streaming service is "free." That's how I look at it. I subscribed to Amazon Prime for the shipping benefits, nothing else. Prime Video is a nice "freezie" if one looks at it from that standpoint. I subscribed to Amazon Prime years ago, and I've always considered Amazon Prime free (which, of course, it isn't). And it's possible Amazon has raised the price of Amazon Prime without me knowing.

Amazon releases its annual fact-free press release. It may be fact-free, but it's also not fake news. More than I can say for CNN, MSNBC, ABC, and a host of other "news" outlets.