Saturday, August 3, 2019

Idle Rambling On A Saturday Night While Listening To Charlie Rich -- August 3, 2019

I left the current issue of the Claremont Review of Books out in the car. I don't dare bring it into the the apartment while May is home. I'll have to sneak it in later.

Before buying the magazine at Barnes and Noble today I looked at each article. $6.95 for a magazine is lot to spend on a magazine, at least for me. It will be easier to afford if the next president sends us all a thousand-dollar check each month. I mean that is so cool, a thousand dollars for every American every month. Two thousand dollars for a married couple. My wife knows that will happen; she says she is looking forward to the extra bit of money. His math backs it up; the mainstream media can't find a flaw. And, maybe we'll be able to keep our doctor. But I digress.

I was never really on the fence whether I would buy the current issue of the CRB. I had pretty much decided I was going to buy it even before I looked at it closely. I guess I just wanted to make sure there were at least half a dozen articles that I would enjoy.

But this made the decision a no-brainer. There's a five- or six-page review of three books with regard to Darwin.

I'm a Darwinist. I grew up on Darwin. I loved biology. I have a double-major in biology and chemistry. I never understood what "neo-Darwinism" meant. Maybe this CRB essay will explain it to me.

But that's not the reason I'm eager to read the essay.

Without the essay in front of me, I can't recall who wrote the review.

But a google review led me to the answer.

The google query: yale professor of computer science darwin book review in claremont review of books.

The result? This link:

By the way, a google search for either, "Bakken oil blog" or "Bakken oil blogs": the "milliondollarway" is still #1. LOL.

From the linked article:
The origin of species is exactly what Darwin cannot explain’

David Gelernter, a famed Yale University professor, has publicly renounced his belief in Charles Darwin’s theory of evolution, calling it a “beautiful idea” that has been effectively disproven.

Gelernter, who is known for predicting the World Wide Web and has developed many complex computing tools over the years, is today a professor of computer science at Yale, chief scientist at Mirror Worlds Technologies, member of the National Council of the Arts, and a prolific author.

In May, the Claremont Review of Books published a column by Gelernter headlined “Giving Up Darwin.” In it, he explained how his readings and discussions of Darwinian evolution and its competing theories, namely intelligent design, have convinced him Darwin had it wrong.
Two comments:
  • "David Gelernter, who is known for predicting the World Wide Web" -- I thought that was Algore -- but close reading -- Algore didn't predict the World Wide Web, he invented it; and,
  • now if only Gelernter would write a similar essay on global warming
In the CRB essay, Gelerneter reviews three books supporting his thesis. It will be interesting to see if he actually says "intelligent design" is a theory.

I can't wait to sneak the magazine into the house.


I think it's important to stress that just because one no longer "accepts" Darwin's theory does not mean that the only alternative is an intelligent designer. I would argue that if Darwin's theory fails to explain the origin of life we need to look for another theory.

A bit of trivia. Every life form on earth "relates."

Think about that.

In the final scene in the movie "Encounters of the Third Kind" (one can also say this about the bar scene in "Episode IV of Star Wars"), every "alien" life form "related" to life forms we know on earth. A symmetrical body type with a definite top and bottom, or head and butt. Interesting, huh?

Chart Of The Year? Certainly Chart Of The Month -- August 3, 2019


Later, 9:55 p.m. Central Time: see comments. I'm being told that I'm misreading the graphs.

Original Post 

The EIA says that US LNG exports to Europe increase amid declining demand and spot LNG prices in Asia.

The headline, at least to me, suggested a "wash" -- with the decrease in Asia made up by a similar increase going to Europe.

But this statement: "US LNG exports to Europe increase aid declining demand and spot LNG prices in Asia."

Wow, what an incredible understatement.

Link here.

1. Unless I'm misreading the graph, the exports to Asia show bar graphs for the entire years for 2017 and 2018, but the data for LNG exports is only for the first five months of this year. It that's an accurate reading, exports to Asia in 2019 will exceed those of 2018, which almost doubled exports reported in 2017.

2. To the far right, look at the huge increase in US LNG exports to Childe. I wonder why? Somehting to check on.

3. But, now for the wow! Look at the graphics for US LNG exports to Europe. Again, the graph suggests full year data for years 2017 and 2018, but only "YTD" (first five months of the year) for 2019. Extrapolating for the full year, the x axis will have to greatly increased for the full year 019. Right now, 1.6 bcfpd over five months translates to [1.6/5 = x 12 = 3.84 bcfpd. Disclaimer: I may be mis-reading the graph.]

4. Now look at the individual countries, comparing 2019 (YTD) with 2018:
  • France: wow; from almost nothing in 2018 to 0.3 bcfpd; and the French hate us;
  • Spain: I can't even make out the dark blue-grey Spanish bar in 2018; in 2019 (YTD), 0.3 bcfpd, equal to that of France
  • Netherlands: ditto
  • Italy: ditto
  • Turkey: a small increase
5. Even if I'm misreading the graph, the jump from 2018 (0.4) to 2019 (YTD) (1.6) was four-fold.

What's With Chile And US LNG Exports?

It looks like it might all have to do with Cheniere. Absolutely fascinating.

From oilprice two years ago (again, this is two years ago):
At the moment, the market offering the best returns on a netback basis is South America. ICIS published a great article about this last week and I encourage you to check out the interactive graph they posted with the article. According to ICIS data, 26 cargoes (as of Sept. 6) have been delivered from Cheniere’s Sabine Pass with more than 57 percent of total exports going to South America. Chile is the single biggest recipient and absorbed 28 percent of the total volume.
The oilprice contributor links to this interactive graph at ICIS. Amazingly, the article is still there.

Later: here's another interesting dot connecting Cheniere and the global import/export story. 

Best T-Shirt Line This Week

Remain calm. You are on the happy side of the Trump wall.

Seen on a t-shirt worn by a Hispanic man with his extended family outside a Korean restaurant. In Texas.

What a great country.

Week 31: July 28, 2019 -- August 3, 2019

Top international non-energy story:

Top international energy story:

Top national non-energy story:
Top national energy story:

Top North Dakota non-energy story:

Top North Dakota energy story:
Geoff Simon's top ND stories:
  • North Dakota is in the top five; 4th best state for business start-ups; at Wallethub;
  • McKenzie Count schools report nearly 150 more students this fall
  • Wyoming critic of federal public land management picked to lead BLM

Notes From All Over, Part 1 -- August 3, 2019

ND: fourth best state for business start-ups -- from Wallethub, notables:
#1: Texas
#2: Utah
#3: Georgia
#4: North Dakota
#5: Oklahoma
#8: California
#9: Montana
#17: Minnesota
#22: South Dakota
#23: Iowa
$42: New York
#46: Connecticut
#47: Hawaii
#48: New Hampshire
#49: New Jersey
#50: Rhode Island
Really poor planning:  no transmission lines -- from Sweden -- from Bloomberg via Yahoo!Finance:
Sweden’s introduction on Thursday of a tax aimed at phasing out the nation’s last remaining coal and gas plants to curb global warming comes with an unintended consequence for some of its biggest cities.
Hiking threefold a levy on fossil fuels used at local power plants will make such facilities unprofitable and utilities from Stockholm Exergi AB to EON SE have said they will halt or cut power production.
The move means that grids in the capital and Malmo won’t be able to hook up new facilities including homes, transport links and factories. While Sweden doesn’t have a shortage of power, there’s not enough cables to ship it to the biggest cities.
EVs in the US: perhaps we can call this the idea of EVs the "Swedish problem." Moving to 100% EVs in the US: no one has thought this through. I would simply be impossible. Even if the US could generate that much electricity, the infrastructure to get it where it was needed, and associated re-charging infrastructure would simply not exist. If nothing else, imagine the footprint of service stations where EVs would re-charge. 

Four Corners Power Plant: Native Americans -1; Faux Environmentalist - 0. Link here.

Celebrating Corky's Sixth Birthday

I can't recall for sure --- I think Sophia said it was Corky's sixth birthday.

It seems we celebrate Corky's birthday several times each year. Usually about the time Sophia gets another hankering for chocolate cake.

Update On Saudi Arabia's Theme Park -- August 3, 2019

Before we get to Fantasy Land, let's see how Saudi Arabia is doing financially. Actually quite well considering how low oil is priced. Imagine this chart if oil sold for $65. Or $75. Or $100. Fantasy Land is crazy, crazy, crazy, but availability of money won't be an issue. Remember: Saudi could see another $2 trillion when/if they go ahead with the Saudi Aramco IPO.

Link here.

The "Prince Salman" plan is tracked at the sidebar at the right.

Link here.

SHARMA, Saudi Arabia—This seaside corner of northwest Saudi Arabia is so barren that the only abundant resources a group of consultants could identify were sunlight and “unlimited access to salt water.”
But Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman didn’t see a wasteland when he landed in his helicopter here a few years ago. He saw the future— and hatched a plan for a $500 billion city-state to cover 10,000 square miles of rocky desert and empty coastline to attract the “world’s greatest minds and best talents” to the world’s best paying jobs in the world’s most livable city.
They’ll fly drone taxis to work while robots clean their homes. Their city will supplant Silicon Valley in technology, Hollywood in entertainment and the French Riviera as a place to vacation.
It will host a genetic-modification project to make people stronger. These ideas are laid out in 2,300 pages of confidential documents by consultants at Boston Consulting Group, McKinsey & Co. and Oliver Wyman that The Wall Street Journal reviewed, and discussed in interviews with people involved in the project called Neom, a portmanteau of the Greek word for “new” and the Arabic word for “future.”
The documents, dated September 2018, offer the most detailed look inside Neom and its planning since the project was unveiled in 2017. Tasked by the crown prince, known as MBS, to help turn his imaginary city into a reality, the consultants created an expensive mix of science fiction and corporate buzzwords interrupted by uncomfortable realities: Local tribes would be forcibly relocated. A court system developed by law firm Latham & Watkins and labeled “independent” would have judges reporting directly to the king, and operating under Shariah law, or Islamic jurisprudence.
Link here.

De facto leader Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has been trying to address the problem, but it has been on the revenue side of the ledger and carries its own price tag. He is, for example, throwing money into Neom, a futuristic city that is Saudi’s self-proclaimed “world’s most ambitious project.” It is meant to pivot the economy away from oil, but will cost $500 billion in the interim. Despite some austerity when oil prices collapsed, the kingdom is spending heavily on guns and butter. It has been engaged in a multiyear war against Iran-backed rebels in Yemen. A report from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute pegged the country as the third largest military spender in 2018 by dollar value at more than $67 billion—far higher than the U.S. as a percentage of gross domestic product.

What A Great Country; Nothing About The Bakken -- August 3, 2019

This country is really, really rich. How rich? The Democrats running for president want to send every American a check for $1,000/month. The man behind that idea is getting more and more attention. As I mentioned the other day, my wife loves the idea, another thousand-dollar check from the government every month, or "mailbox money" as she calls it.

Is it feasible, $1,000 a month for every American. Must be. The mainstream media is unable to "prove" it won't work, and Nobel Laureate Paul Krugman says deficits no longer matter.

Smart, Smart Move

Does the president really need anyone for "the top intelligence post"? Simply let the #2 remain in place as the "acting director.'