Monday, December 29, 2014

Random Graphic; Proved Reserves -- December 29, 2014

This is not an investment site. Just because there seems to be a lot of oil left does not mean it might be a good commodity to short or an opportunity to go long. The graphic is simply there because I thought it looked "neat," and, hey, I sometimes needs a reminder of the various "categories." 

This Is Not An Investment Site

Brazil's state-run oil company Petrobras could be declared in technical default on some of its foreign debt as early as Tuesday if bondholders adhere to a campaign to force it to speed up its assessment of losses in a giant corruption scandal.
The campaign, which is being led by New York-based Aurelius Capital, applies only to the $54 billion of Petrobras bonds governed by U.S. law in New York state.
Aurelius, a "distressed debt" or "vulture" fund, is asking investors to put the company into default as "a precautionary step," according to a Dec. 29 letter from the firm reviewed by Reuters. Under the terms of those bonds, Petrobras is required to provide third-quarter financial statements within 90 days of the end of a quarter, in this case by Monday, December 29, 2014.
Petrobras has not published those accounts because allegations of contract-fixing and bribery at the company have raised doubts about the true value of its assets. For the default declaration to take effect on any of the more than 20 U.S. law bonds outstanding, investors holding at least 25 percent of each series must request the action, Aurelius said in the letter to fellow bondholders.

Incredible -- Chevron To Accept Apple Pay -- December 29, 2014

Big news:
Oil company Chevron has plans to expand its use of Apple Pay to gas pumps in the new year.
Chevron says that it is working with Apple to bring Apple Pay payment solutions to pumps by early 2015.
Just in time for our cross-country drive back to Texas. LOL. No, I don't have an Apple iPhone (but my wife does). But she doesn't have/use Apple Pay.

Using a cell phone as a gasoline pump. Boom.

Maybe only with gasoline made from that highly volatile Bakken crude oil. 

It's Gonna Be Close -- Nine New Permits Last Two Days Of The Year -- New All-Time Record Of 3,000 Permits -- December 29, 2014

COB, Monday, December 29, 2014: 2,991 new permits for oil and gas permits in North Dakota.

Ten more permits over the next two days, and "we" hit 3,001 new oil and gas permits in North Dakota, an all-time high.

Active rigs:

Active Rigs172187187196156

Going Down The Bucket List

The bucket list:
  • Last Dem standing after 2014 mid-term elections
  • "Treaty" with China on global warming; except that nothing changed for China
  • Immigration "reform" through executive order -- except he never did sign an order; a low-ranking bureaucrat simply wrote a new "rule"
  • Normalizes relations with Cuba -- except he can't do that without Senate approval
  • Declares war in Afghanistan "over" --ending US's longest war -- LOL
He's going to have quite a resume for his next job -- PGA commissioner; Augusta National Chairman; or, valet. 

The Road To New England Goes Through The White House; I Can't Make This Stuff Up -- December 29, 2014

From Investor's Buisness Daily:
Feeling low about the incessant screeching that the ice is catastrophically melting at the poles? A lot of us are, so it's good to see a researcher buck the narrative.
Ted Maksym, an oceanographer at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution in Massachusetts, has drawn a conclusion that will surely bring him grief from the global-warming believers and cold shoulder from most of the mainstream media, which is heavily invested in the idea that man is heating his planet by burning fossil fuels.
"The North and South Poles are 'not melting,'" the British Express reported on Christmas.
"In fact," the Express said in its coverage of Maksym's finding, "the poles are 'much more stable' than climate scientists once predicted and could even be much thicker than previously thought."
Remember those words "previously thought." In the future we will be seeing them a lot more in reference to the continued unraveling of the global warming fable. In the meantime, kudos to the Express for publishing what the mainstream American media refuse to report.
Can't Make This Stuff Up Either

Phoenix could experience coldest New Year's Day in recorded history ... going all the way back to Alexander the Great. Okay, I made that last part up.
There’s the potential for up to a foot of snow in Northern Arizona.
Farther south in Phoenix, it could be one of the coolest New Year’s on record, says Pace. All the way down to 50 degrees (10C).
All the way down to 50 degrees. LOL. That's a summer day in North Dakota. 

A Note to the Granddaughters
Who Can't Read This Anyway Because The Blog Has Been Taken Down

What an incredibly good day! My daughter -- not granddaughter -- the daughter with no children wanted to visit a "big" Japanese bookstore in downtown Los Angeles to get a certain puzzle book, not Suduko or Suuduko as the Japanese call it. We haven't been able to find the "puzzle logic" magazines she normally gets; they are caught up in a teamsters union job slowdown with ships stranded out at sea. I doubt that's entirely correct, but there is some truth to the story. But that's for another time, I suppose.

She did find a "puzzle logic" book at the store, so she was very, very happy. I saw a whole new selection of books I would not generally see at a Barnes and Noble. It was awesome.

The store: Kinokuniya Bookstores --

 Los Angeles City bans plastic bags for large retail stores 
selling perishable goods (i.e., grocery stores) but bookstores are exempt. 
Go figure.

There are nine of these Japanese bookstores in the United States. I've now seen two of them (Los Angeles, Costa Mesa); our younger daughter has seen three of them (those two plus Portland, Orego). If she sees the two in the Bay Area, San Francisco and San Jose (possible), and the one in Seattle (very possible), she will have seen 6 of the 9. The other three: Chicago, New York, and New Jersey.

I assume 90 - 95% of the books were in Japanese and thus not for me, but the 5 - 10% of the books in English there were superb. I assume most of the books could be found in a Barnes and Noble, but with such a small "English" collection, the bookstore would only have the best of the best. And the Japanese have the best taste in almost everything, it seems.

I ended up with three books and could have bought many more but I had to stop. 

The three:
  • an almost-500 page, small-print, hardcover, of the Los Angeles film culture "before Hollywood," 1905 - 1915; very, very unique;
  • an elegant but very small 25-page (or thereabouts) graphic novella telling the story of Steve Jobs and re-inventing Apple after Sculley, The Zen and Steve Jobs; it can be read in 10 minutes but there's something about it that suggests it will be a hard-to-find-but-much-sought-after item ten years from now;
  • and, of all things, The Manga Guide to Electricity, a sort of Japanese comic book (in English) that explains electricity. 
Regular readers know my difficulty with understanding electricity and how I want to help my granddaughters learn about it, so I find whatever tools I can to help me as well as help them. This book looks particularly promising. It is very much like the American "Books for Idiots" series, but this is in the Japanese manga style which is much more appealing to a third grader who is into the Diaries of a Wimpy Kid.

The "manga" book is also a fast read, but something tells me it will provide some insights and nuances into electricity that I have not seen before.

Just for the fun of it, I read the first 20 pages earlier this evening, and right or wrong, I think I understand why Europe (and I think Japan also) has 240 volt appliances as a general rule and Americans have 120 volt. Right or wrong, it provides a way for me to remember the "power formula" (current, power, voltage relationship).

Reason #45 Why I Am So Happy Not To Be In Business In A Booming Oil Patch -- December 29, 2014
A limited-membership social and business club in Williston with dues ranging from $5,000 to $25,000 was evicted this month over failed rent payments.
The Bakken Club was ordered to remove all of its property from its downtown location by December 21, 2014, the Williston Herald reported. Court records show the eviction came after the club failed to pay nearly $23,000 in rent.
The club signed a lease in July 2013 and opened five months later featuring a bar and restaurant. An individual premier membership included a one-time $5,000 initiation fee and a $250 monthly food minimum.
When the club opened, co-owner Joel Lundeen declared that The Bakken Club was meant to be a place where “like-minded individuals can further business relations.”
In response to the eviction, the club filed a lawsuit against its lessor, On The Spot Development, owned by David Forenza. The club claims Forenza’s company failed to return a security deposit by its July 31 due date. The club argues the landlord also breached the contract by failing to provide heat, ventilation and air conditioning and to maintain the sidewalks and driveways in good condition.
The club’s counter-suit also alleges that Forenza interfered with the group’s business by spreading rumors through the public and on the club’s website. The suit says the rumors included that the Bakken Club “makes everything from a box” and “the food is terrible.”
Neither Forenza, nor club representatives could be reached for comment Saturday and attorneys for the Bakken Club declined to comment to the newspaper. The phone listed on the club’s website has been disconnected.
On The Spot Development has previously evicted other tenants from the building that housed the club. A legal dispute between the lessor and a doughnut shop shows that the tenant stopped paying its rent when On The Spot Development did not provide utilities as promised in the lease.
By the way, without going into details, I could provide some very personal observations but those observations and $1.89 would get you a cup a coffee at Starbucks. 

Modern Political Money Laundering -- December 29, 2014

An Opinion Piece
I am not alleging any wrong-doing or any illegal activity
Everybody does it 

This is the way I imagine modern political money laundering is accomplished:

1. People who have the correct credentials, such as a Ph.D. from Yale, or an MBA from Harvard School of Business, AND the golden gift of gab, AND generally have no skeletons in their closet (e.g., pedophile) are given a government grant for a politically correct start-up, such as a battery manufacturing plant or a wind farm or a solar farm or a global warming think tank.

Tower of Song, Leonard Cohen

2. The salaries for the start-up are a) generous, b) guaranteed; c) provided to the CEO and directors; and, d) are sourced by the federal government.

3. The start-up is run like any other business entity, but a) IRS audits are not in the cards; and, b) the CEO and directors are expected to contribute heavily to the political party that made it all possible. This is community organizing at its best.

4. The best-known example was Solyndra. Solyndra is the poster child for political money laundering through start-up battery companies. See this post and/or the Solyndra tags at the bottom of the blog.

5. It appears we now have a poster child for solar farms: Ivanpah. See these links:
And so it goes. 

Fourteen (14) New Permits -- North Dakota -- December 29, 2014

Breaking news! This is strange. I posted this story the about Ivanpah solar farm back on November 17, 2014 The identical story -- an AP -- story is printed in today's Los Angeles Times. Very, very interesting. What was the editorial reason for publishing this story in today's Los Angeles Times; the story has been out for at least a month. Hmmm ... inquiring minds want to know. My hunch is that the story line does support the LA Times cultish belief in global warming and were conflicted about whether to publish the story.

The Daily Activity Report

Active rigs:

Active Rigs172187187196156

Wells coming off the confidential list were posted earlier today; see sidebar at the right.

Wells coming off the confidential list through the end of the year are posted here.

Fourteen (14) new permits --
  • Operators: CLR (9), XTO (3), Whiting (2)
  • Fields: Elm Tree (McKenzie), Siverston (McKenzie), Bell (Stark)
  • Comments: 
Two (2) permits were canceled: one of little consequence, the Enduro Solheim permit (#03729); and an Oasis permit, Hanover Federal in Williams County, #26912.

One (1) producing well was completed:
  • 23928, 321, OXY USA, Henry Gurke 1-30-19H-141-96, t10/14; cum 9K 10/14;
One (1) interesting well name change, suggesting the target has changed from TF3 to TF2:
  • 28002, conf, CLR, Jersey 4-6H2 (was Jersey 4-6H3), no production data,

Analysis Of The Drudge Report, 2014

Analysis of The Drudge Report, 2014, at The National Journal.

Another Story Not Being Reported By Mainstream Media (Yet) -- December 29, 2014

Consumption is up in India. Link here. A huge "thank you" to a reader for sending this article.

This is an incredible under-reported story, but once a few stories are published, it will snowball. I talked about it earlier.

I don't watch television any more (except for sports, a few other exceptions) so I don't know what CNBC is talking about (I assume mostly about Starbucks coffee and Ackman; Herbalife and Greenberg. But I digress. This is the kind of story CNBC always seems to be behind on -- the story linked above about India. A 5% increase in crude oil consumption (gasoline/diesel) is not trivial.


From Platt's, dated December 23, 2014:
China's "apparent" oil demand in November rose 3.5% year over year to 42.18 million metric tons (mt), or an average 10.31 million barrels per day (b/d), according to a just-released Platts analysis of Chinese government data.
The official data also showed China turning into a net exporter of oil products during the January – November period this year.
China's apparent oil demand in November increased 2.2% from October.
Meanwhile, total apparent oil demand was 9.99 million b/d during the first 11 months of the year, an increase of 2.3% over the same period last year.
In an unprecedented development, China has become a net exporter of oil products over January to November this year, with oil product exports surpassing imports by 70,000 mt (600,000 bbls).
Stimulus measures implemented by the Chinese government and a seasonal uptick in year-end demand helped buoy consumption in November.
"Chinese refiners requested for more oil product quotas from the government for the fourth quarter. This was mostly to accommodate additional jet fuel exports because of robust production growth."
Crude throughput by refineries in November was up 5.5% year over year to 42.25 million mt, or an average 10.32 million b/d, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) mid-December.
The US

This graph tells the story. I suspect the 2015 - 2017 peak will look a lot like 2005 - 2007 if prices stay low.

From CrudeOilPeak:

But At Least It's Hard To Catch

Tweeting now: Number of people infected by Ebola in Sierra Leone, Liberia and Guinea passes 20,000, with more than 7,842 deaths, reports World Health Organization - @Reuters

Global Warming

Rare snow to blanket Las Vegas

Monday -- December 29, 2014; Contracts For June 2015 Oil As Low As $30

Active rigs:

Active Rigs172187187196156

Agree Completely

CNBC is reporting:
Oil's massive price drop continues to befuddle industry experts.
"We're at the stupid range."
Schork added this situation is similar to oil's price spike in 2008 in terms of its uncertainty.
"We don't know how much lower oil can go," Schork said. "It's similar to 2008 when we knew oil at $120, $130 and $140 made no sense, but high prices became the reason for higher prices. It's the same thing in reverse."
Schork also said oil's price plunge is attracting many investors.
"Bets for oil below $30 by June traded over 46,000 contracts over the past two weeks," he said.
Boris Schlossberg, founding partner of B.K. Asset Management, said an entire year of oil selling at $50 per barrel will create problems for Russia.
"Russia is in very serious trouble if oil just stays low," he said. "We had a bounce in the ruble, and it sort of stabilized right now, but if you have oil staying at $54 for a whole year, it's really going to create problems over there."
Schlossberg added that this could lead to more capital leaving Russia for other currencies, including the Swiss franc." There's a lot of money being moved into the Swiss franc as a safety trade," he said.

RBN Energy Update On The Bakken -- December 29, 2014

Boom Clap – The Sound of My Netback? The Bakken Crude 2014 Roller Coaster

It’s been a big year for oil production from the Bakken formation in North Dakota with output passing the 1 MMb/d mark in April and expected to close out 2014 at 1.25 MMb/d.

Crude netbacks (market price less transport cost from the wellhead) suffered during the first half of the year from narrowing coastal price differentials - denting the economics of crude-by-rail - the most popular option to get Bakken crude to market.

Rail freight costs look set to increase in 2015 with new tank car regulations and requirements for wellhead treatment to remove volatile components.

But those changes pale into insignificance compared to the recent crude price nosedive. That threatens to reduce producer revenues by billions of dollars in 2015 and puts the spotlight on higher transport costs to get crude to market from North Dakota. Today we look at the financial impact lower netbacks could have on Bakken producers.

RBN has tracked crude production and transportation trends in the Bakken closely over the past three years - a period of rapid output growth – up 270% from 343 Mb/d in January 2011 to 935 Mb/d in January of 2014 (data from the North Dakota Pipeline Authority - NDPA). During that period of continuous growth, the greatest challenge for producers has been finding markets for their crude and securing transportation to deliver it competitively to refineries. That’s because North Dakota’s small population consumes little oil and the state is located far from large coastal refining centers.

As production took off in 2011, Midwest refinery demand for light sweet Bakken crude was quickly saturated (many Midwest refineries are configured to process heavier Canadian crude) leaving Bakken crude supplies backed up on limited pipeline infrastructure and causing an inventory glut at the Cushing, OK trading hub resulting in heavy price discounting for Bakken crudes.  During 2011 and 2012 the pipeline congestion at Cushing combined with constrained pipeline take-away capacity in the Bakken encouraged a build out of rail loading terminals to deliver crude past the logjam and direct to coastal refineries (see The Year of the Tank Car). Railing Bakken crude to coastal refineries allowed the latter to take advantage of competitive prices for domestic crude versus imported alternatives (see On The Rails Again). Railroads appeared to be solving the North Dakota crude transport challenge while producers waited for slower pipeline infrastructure to be built out. And for East and West Coast markets where pipeline infrastructure seems unlikely to get built because of geography (the Rockies) or population density (East Coast) rail provided a “pipeline on wheels” to get stranded crude to refineries.

But during 2014 a good deal of rain began to fall on the Bakken crude-by-rail parade – first of all because of concerns about rail tank car safety after several fiery accidents (see The Trains They Are A Changin’) that seem likely to constrain the volume of crude moved by rail in the long run as well as raising freight and wellhead treatment costs. And second because the economics of railing crude from North Dakota to coastal markets took a hit from narrowing price differentials between midcontinent crude benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) priced at Cushing, OK and coastal crudes such as Light Louisiana Sweet (LLS) at the Gulf Coast and international crude Brent, which sets the market price at the East Coast (see I Can’t Stand The Train? and Under Pressure).

When coastal crude prices were much higher than WTI it made sense to pay higher rail freight costs to ship crude to those markets. As the difference between WTI and coastal crudes narrowed, so did the incentive to use rail transport.

On the plus side for Bakken producers there was an expansion in outbound pipeline capacity from North Dakota to Cushing and to the Gulf Coast during 2014. That new capacity encouraged producers to get off the rails and to ship by pipeline. But although moving Bakken crude to the Gulf Coast by pipe is typically less expensive than railing it to East or West Coasts, crude delivered to the Gulf from North Dakota struggled to compete with booming output from the West Texas Permian and South Texas Eagle Ford basins.

Those shale crudes have less distance to travel to the Gulf Coast so their freight costs are lower. Bottom line – transport costs weigh heavier on North Dakota producers – reducing their netbacks. Producers closer to market usually make more money.

Nevertheless until the last few months of 2014 when the crude price crash began to accelerate, Bakken producers could still expect comfortable rates of return from crude prices at or close to $100/Bbl even after swallowing higher transport costs. But the price crash in the second half of 2014 (see Crying Time at OPEC?) pushed prices for WTI to as low as $55/Bbl by the end of December. If prices remain at those levels for long then rates of return for many North Dakota producers will fall to unacceptable levels with higher transport costs making matters worse.

How much damage has the crude price crash done to North Dakota crude producer’s revenues? We can’t know the real numbers yet, but to get an idea of the kind of revenue destruction that lower crude prices bring we ran the netback analysis we’ve used previously to determine the best route to market for Bakken producers (see On the Rails Again). This analysis is illustrated by Figure #1 and details the netbacks that North Dakota producers can expect from different routes to market and transport choices.

Figure #1
Source: RBN Energy, Market data from Morningstar (Click to Enlarge)

The map in Figure #1 shows North Dakota producer netbacks based on prices for December 26, 2014. The various routes and modes of transport from North Dakota to the West Coast, East Coast, Gulf Coast and Cushing, OK are shown with different color lines.

In a minute we compare these netbacks with the averages for 2013. First a more detailed explanation of the netback analysis in Figure #1. Bakken producer netbacks are shown along the top of the map and represent the crude market price at the destination less the freight costs for each route as shown in the white circles. These freight costs are based on a number of industry presentations as well as published pipeline tariffs, terminal rates and estimates of rail car leases. The cost estimates include all transportation from the wellhead to the refining region and are by their nature representative rather than actual. The yellow text boxes indicate the market regional price in $/Bbl.

The numbers you see here represent market pricing for December 26, 2014 when WTI at Cushing was $55/Bbl, LLS at the Gulf Coast $57/Bbl, Brent (East Coast pricing) was $59/Bbl and ANS (West Coast) was $58/Bbl. Looking at the boxes along the top of the map, you can see that the highest netback is $46/Bbl and that two routes have that netback – Cushing and the Gulf Coast by pipeline. Next behind the two pipeline routes comes the Pacific North West route with a $44/Bbl netback, followed by the Cushing, Gulf Coast and East Coast rail routes – all with $40/Bbl. In summary – as of December 26, Bakken producers could expect netbacks in the $40 - $46/Bbl range with higher rail costs to the East Coast cutting that netback to $40/Bbl. [Note producers that have hedging programs will be achieving higher netbacks than these because their hedges compensate them in case of lower market crude prices – but typical hedging programs only extend out for 2015 so they will not be protected forever.]
How do these returns compare to previous netbacks for Bakken producers? Table #1 shows both the results for December 26, 2014 and average values calculated for the year 2013 on the same cost basis.  Along the top of the table are the different route options. Below are two rows showing different netbacks. The first row is the arithmetic mean of the market destination prices for 2013 less the same representative freight costs used in Figure #1. The second row is a summary of the results for December 26, 2014 shown in Figure #1.

Table #1
Source: RBN Energy (Click to Enlarge)

Row 1 in Table #1 shows that in 2013 as a whole, the Gulf Coast by pipeline route provided the best netback for producers (green shaded cell). Note that there was little available pipeline capacity to get to the Gulf Coast during 2013 so most producers would not have achieved that higher netback. You can see from row 1 in the table that rail options to the West Coast, East Coast and Gulf Coast all produced average netbacks over $90/Bbl during 2013. And if you compare rows 1 and 2 you see that the 2013 numbers are all double the recent values in row 2  - (except for Cushing by pipe that is under by a hair). This tells us that the price crash has halved producers crude netback revenues compared to 2013.

Next we made a guestimate of the total impact of the price crash for Bakken producer netback revenue. In 2013, the NDPA reported North Dakota crude production at roughly 314 MMBbl for the year. The average 2013 netback from row 1 in Table #1 is $91/Bbl meaning that North Dakota netback revenue for the year would have been about (314 million  * $91) or $29 Billion. We then compared that number against 2014 production volumes that we estimate should come out close to 399 MMBbl. First we took an average of netbacks over 2014 (though December 26) calculated the same way as for 2013 – about $83/Bbl – meaning that estimated 2014 netback revenue is 399 million * $83 or  $33 Billion. In other words, based on the netbacks, producers will get $4 Billion more netback revenue in 2014 than 2013 – not surprising given higher production and high crude prices earlier in the year. Second we estimated what kind of dent a full year at recent prices would have made to that $33 Billion 2014 expected revenue. To do this we multiplied 2014 expected production of 399 MMBbl by the arithmetic mean of our December 26, 2014 netbacks from Table #1 ($43/Bbl).

The result is 399 million * 43 or $17 Billion - so here’s the sobering bottom line – North Dakota producer netback revenue for 2014 would have been about $16 Billion lower at current prices. So while we reiterate that this is ballpark math that $16 Billion sure represents a big hole in producer netback revenue and it gives a pretty good idea of how much impact a 50 % drop in oil prices has on producer revenues.

Certainly enough to cause careful reconsideration of 2015 drilling budgets and close scrutiny of production costs and break-even estimates for new wells. And in that cost-conscious environment, higher transportation costs will weigh heavy on rates of return - leaving the Bakken more vulnerable than other basins closer to market.
In the next couple of weeks we will dig into more specific break-even analysis for U.S. shale productions by region – including transport costs estimates such as those we highlighted in this analysis.

Random Look At Seven (7) Whiting Wells In One Drilling Unit In Sanish Oil Field; No Obvious Halo Effect; No Obvious Interference -- December 28, 2014

In a long note like this, you should assume there are typographical and factual errors. If this information is important to you, go to the source. Opinions expressed are those of the author and should not be construed to be anything more than personal opinions, which with $1.89 will get you a cup of Starbucks coffee. 

These seven wells were spud in section 3-154-92; they are long laterals extending in a west-southwesterly direction. All of them are entirely in sections 3/2 except for #21934 which is almost entirely in section 10/11; and #19517 whose tip (toe) extends slightly into section 11 (spud from north to south):
  • 18233, 1,329, Whiting, Ogden 11-3TFH, t11/09; cum 224K 10/14;
  • 19029, 2,411, Whiting, Heiple 11-3H, t110/10; cum 300K 10/14;
  • 24557, 890, Whiting, Ogden 12-3-2H, t4/13; cum 127K 10/14;
  • 18928, 1,890, Whiting, Ogden 12-3H, t8/10; cum 333K 10/14;
  • 21773, 733, Whiting, Ogden 13-3TFX, t4/12;  cum 107K 10/14; 
  • 19517, 1,870, Whiting, Heiple 14-3XH, t2/11; cum 295K 10/14;
  • 21934, A, Whiting, Ogden 14-3TFX, s2/12; no IP date; cum 72K 10/14;
In order of test date (or likely test date for #21934):
  • 18233, 1,329, Whiting, Ogden 11-3TFH, t11/09; cum 224K 10/14;
  • 18928, 1,890, Whiting, Ogden 12-3H, t8/10; cum 333K 10/14;
  • 19029, 2,411, Whiting, Heiple 11-3H, t110/10; cum 300K 10/14;
  • 19517, 1,870, Whiting, Heiple 14-3XH, t2/11; cum 295K 10/14;
  • 21773, 733, Whiting, Ogden 13-3TFX, t4/12;  cum 107K 10/14;
  • 21934, A, Whiting, Ogden 14-3TFX, s2/12; no IP date; cum 72K 10/14;
  • 24557, 890, Whiting, Ogden 12-3-2H, t4/13; cum 127K 10/14;
Comments about production profile:
  • 18233: nothing unusual; taken off-line for 13 - 18 days in the months of: 11/10; 5/11; 8/11; 10/11; 
  • 18928: taken off-line for half the month, 12/10 after huge production months before; taken off-line for almost all of 2/11 and 3/11; off-line for half the following month, 4/11; off-line for 11 days, 6/11; 
  •  off-line for half the month, 4/12; off-line almost the entire month, 4/13;
  • 19029: taken off-line almost the entire month, 1/11 after huge production months before; off-line for about half of each of months 4/11, 5/11, 6/11; off-line for 11 days 6/12; 
  • 19517: really huge production first three months; off-line most of the month 5/12; 
  • 21773: up to this point, the poorest performing well in this section; 30 stages; 2 million lbs (similar to others); on-line almost all days all months, minor exceptions
  • 21934: like #21773, a fairly poor well for the Sanish; note, both #21773 and #21934 are Three Forks wells;
  • 24557: very good production in the first few months (not quite as good as 19517); then the typical decline; on-line almost the entire time