Thursday, January 30, 2020

Notes From All Over, Part 1 -- January 30, 2020

Did you all catch this? AMZN up $216 after hours; up 12% after hours.

AMZN: earlier today there was an article suggesting AMZN was in trouble due to high shipping costs. Okay.

AMZN: holy mackerel -- AMZN beat expectations.
  • revenue: $87.4 billion vs $86.17 billion (not trivial)
  • EPS: $6.47/share vs $4.11/share
  • let's repeat that: $6.47 vs $4.11
  • holy mackerel 
  • market cap now over $1 trillion
  • record-breaking holiday shopping season
  • sales for the quarter up a whopping 21% compared to 4Q18
  • AWS: even though it lost a huge government contract, still doing incredibly well
  • more Amazon Prime membership than ever; 150 million worldwide
Fox Business News:
  • my favorites:
    • Elizabeth McDonald
    • Liz Peek
    • Lisa Montgomery
    • Lou Dobbs (I vacillate on this one) 
    • Charlie Gasparino
  • okay:
    • Charles Payne 
    • Stuart Varney
    • Maria Bartiromo
    • Neil Cavuto
    • Melissa Francis
  • least favorite:
    • Liz Clamon 
Global economy:
  • US-Canada
  • US-Mexico
  • US-UK
  • US-EU
  • if US Dow goes back above 29,000 before coronavirus story contained, this will speak volumes about the strength of bilateral trade agreements between the US and the other countries (regions) noted above and all the chatter about China
Trump focus:
  • taxes
  • regulations
  • energy
  • trade

Huge Drop In Oil; WTI Trending To $52; No New Permits -- January 30, 2020

Active rigs:

Active Rigs5465573845

Another day with no new oil and gas permits?

No permits canceled.

No permits renewed.

No producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed.

No runs, no hits, no errors. 

AMZN: Up 12% / Up $216 After Hours -- January 30, 2020

First things first, from The Wall Street Journal -- under President Trump, life expectancy rises in US for first time in four years. Why? Lower mortality from cancer (despite Obamacare), accidents and unintentional injuries; drug overdose deaths fell 4%.

First things first: stalled $1 billion natural gas pipeline gets backing from top US regulator. Bloomberg via Yahoo!Finance.
  • PennEast vs New Jersey
  • Enbridge Inc. and Southern Co 
  • but still facing US Supreme Court; on "life support" 
Wow, I wasn't going to look at the market for another week or so, but when I heard through the grapevine that the market turned a 200-point loss to a 100-point gain by the end of the day, I was curious.

This speaks volumes about global current events.

First, how did WTI do? Fell 35 cents; now trading below $53. OPEC in a panic. Whatever.

Now the market.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Ones that interest me today (I hold some of these; some I don't):
  • AAPL: flat; flirting with all-time highs.
  • D: new intra-day high.
  • SRE: new intra-day high.
  • BKH: up 57 cents; flirting with all-time highs.
  • EW: this is the reason I posted this note. Up as much as $12 after-hours after earnings report; flirting with all-time highs.
  • I won't look at oil operators. Too depressing. LOL.
  • ENB: up 13 cents; intra-day high; paying almost 6%.
  • OKE: up 53 cents; flirting with new highs.
  • EPD: down 3% during the day; pays 6.52%.
  • XLNX: down 86 cents; up a bit after hours.
  • BAX: up a bit during the day.
  • IMUX: at $8.35; up four cents during the day
  • AMZN: up $216 after hours; up 12% after hours.
AMZN: earlier today there was an article suggesting AMZN was in trouble due to high shipping costs. Okay.

SecCommerce: coronoavirus will bring manufacturing back to the US. Yup.

AAPL: comments at MacRumors article, "Apple matched or surpassed Samsung for smartphone shipments in 4Q19 (or 1Q20 for AAPL):
  • so Samsung's phone business increased 67% to $2b while Apple's phone business brought in $56b. Sold similar numbers of phones... but Apple sales value is 28x higher??? (others questioned the validity of that comment, and rightly so)
  • comparing unit sales is complete nonsense when you don’t sell $50 phones (excellent observation)
  • Not to mention the "is a shipment a sale?" question. (this dude is really living under a rock?)
AAPL: in the midst of a bullish "perfect storm" and nothing likely to change in the near future.

Two Five-Well CPEUSC Tami Pads In Lone Tree Lake -- January 30, 2020

Two rigs in section 8-157-99, Lone Tree Lake:

the pad to the west:
  • 37203, ros, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Tami ... TFH, Dublin,
  • 33841, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Tami ... MBH, Lone Tree Lake,
  • 33840, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Tami ... TFH, Lone Tree Lake,
  • 33839, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Tami ... MBH, Lone Tree Lake,
  • 33838, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Tami ... TFH, Lone Tree Lake,

the parent well:
  • 23677, 482, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC SC-Tami ... H-1, Lone Tree Lake, t1/13; cum 184K 11/19;
the pad to the east:
  • 34255, ros,
  • 34256, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Tami ... TFH, Lone Tree Lake,
  • 34257, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Tami ... TFH, Lone Tree Lake,
  • 34258, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Tami ... MBH, Lone Tree Lake,
  • 34259, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Tami ... TFH, Lone Tree Lake,

Three Huge MRO Wells Recently Reported -- January 30, 2020

Two neighboring older wells to the 3-well Chimney Butte pad below:
  • 16908, 248, MRO, Marlin 14-12H, Chimney Butte, t3/08; cum 154K 5/19; off line, 5/19; remains off line 11/19;
  • 16180, 128, MRO, Marlin 24-12H, Chimney Butte, t8/06; cum 354K 5/19; off line, 5/19; remains off line 11/19;
Three wells recently fracked, all on same pad, running south to north:
  • 36265, 5,929, MRO, Dorothy 14-12TFH, 45 stages; 6.4 million lbs; Three Forks first bench, Chimney Butte, t8/19; cum 159K 11/19;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
  • 36266, 4,318, MRO, Dasha USA 44-11H, 45 stages; 8.2 million lbs; Chimney Butte, t8/19; cum 139K 11/19;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
  • 36108, 5,396, MRO, Sarah 24-12TFH, 45 stages; 6.4 million lbs; Three Forks first bench; Chimney Butte, t8/19; cum 144K 11/19; 
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Farther south but on a different pad
  • 36267, 4,301, MRO, Blanche14-36H, 45 stages; 7.4 million lbs; Killdeer, t7/19; cum 160K 11/19; 
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Seek First To Understand, Then To Be Understood -- January 30, 2020

Covey's seven habits, #5: seek first to understand, then to be understood.

This is really cool.

A reader asked me earlier whether I reported every Bakken well or just the better ones.

I replied that I report every Bakken well that comes off the confidential list as reported by the NDIC.

There seemed to be a disconnect how I perceived the question, how I answered it, and what the reader was asking or seeing.

Then it dawned on me.

The reader is correct. I missed his point.

I do report every Bakken well that comes off the confidential list. I have not missed any since 2010 and perhaps earlier.

But the reader is correct. I generally don't report the monthly production data for wells unless the monthly production data is particularly noteworthy and/or part of a story I'm trying to tell and/or part of the production data for a family of wells.

I hope that makes sense.

The reader is correct. A casual glance at the blog would suggest "all" Bakken wells are great wells, or even monster wells, because I show the production data for the better Bakken wells. In fact, as long-term readers know, the vast majority of Bakken wells are not monster wells.

But every Bakken well has a story to tell, and I try to tell as many as I can. 

Politics -- Nothing About The Bakken -- Wow! Bloomberg Drops Gun Control Super Bowl Ad -- January 30, 2020

Tone-deaf? Probably not. Gun control ad during the Super Bowl. Too bad it's being removed -- would have been the perfect time to go to .... the kitchen to get more cream-cheese-stuffed jalapenos or nachos covered with cheese, re-fried beans, jalapenos. It's being reported that Mr Bloomberg will pull his "gun control" ad -- $10 million -- from the Super Bowl. Perhaps he will replace it with a sixty-second moment of silence for Kobe Bryant.

I'm all for taking measures to curb gun violence in the US, but taking guns away from law-abiding citizens is not the way to do it. One might start with swift, harsh penalties, and no bail. The only reason it takes so long for one's day in court is waiving "right to a speedy trial." Stop and frisk is fine with reasonable cause. Cutting off trigger fingers for particularly egregious gun violence might be a deterrent. If not, the entire hand. Cruel and unusual? Only in the eye of the beholder. We don't have a gun problem. We have a judicial problem.

CLR Reports A Great Boulder Federal Well In Banks Oil Field -- January 30, 2020

This page won't be updated.

These wells are tracked elsewhere.

Original CLR Boulder well with ten-fold jump in production.

CLR has another great Boulder Federal well in Banks oil field:
  • 32109, 3,350, CLR, Boulder Federal 8-4H, 43 stages; 13.2 million lbs; Banks, t9/19; cum 138K 11/19; a 64K month, followed by a 47K month;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Automotive Manufacting By State -- January 30, 2020

Jobs and industry will move where costs are less. I assume the top costs for manufacturing automobiles: human resources, and energy.

Undated link but here are the top auto manufacturing states in the US:
  • five south of the Mason-Dixon line, not including Texas: Tennessee, Missouri, Kentucky, Alabama, Mississippi, #6 - #10;
  • Texas, #4
  • four along the northern tier: Michigan, Ohio, Indiana, Illinois; #1 - #3; #5.
It will be interesting to see how this changes by 2030. My hunch is it won't change much. The states above are ranked, it appears, on number of auto-manufacturing associated plants. Would be nice to see ranking by dollar and number of jobs. 

Wiki, as usual, provides a huge amount of data on this.

Notes From All Over, Part 1 -- January 30, 2020

Chevron: announces a dividend increase. And not insignificant. New dividend: $1.29, up from $1.19. That's an 8.4% increase in the quarterly dividend. Whoo-hoo! Now paying 4.68%.

XOM; will announce a small hike in its dividend next May, 2020 (a hunch). Maybe a 2% increase.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Kobe index, link here:

And with that, off to the library. Good luck, everyone.


Bakken Graphic Of The Day -- January 30, 2020

GDP At 2.1% -- Jobless Claims Up A Bit -- Overall A Nice Report Card; Gasoline Demand In Free-Fall -- January 30, 2020

Link here.

GDP: in-line, unchanged.
Fundamentally supported by consumer spending, fourth-quarter GDP is expected to rise at a 2.1 percent annual pace to match the third quarter's pace. Consumer spending in the US is seen slowing from a strong 3.2 percent third-quarter pace to a still useful 1.9 percent in the fourth. Net exports and residential investment are also likely to be positives for the quarter. 

Jobless claims:
  • prior: 211K
  • prior revised: 223K
  • consensus: 215K
  • actual: 216K
Consensus outlook: Initial jobless claims are expected to rise 4,000 to 215,000 in the January 25 week after rising 6,000 in the prior week to 211,000. The prior week was the sample week of the January employment report and though the initial indication was favorable for the monthly employment report, a significant number of states were estimated raising the risk of a sizable revision, one that could affect estimates for January nonfarm payrolls and the month's unemployment rate. 
Gasoline demand, link here:

Days supply, link here: pretty much unchanged for quite some time now -- 25.9 days. For me, 25.9 rounds off to 28 days, and 4 x 7 = 28; therefore a 4-week supply of oil. A two-week supply is way too tight; a three-week supply about right.

WTI Trending Toward $52; Five Wells Coming Off Confidential List; Update On The D-J Basin -- January 30, 2020

Boom! Apple now worth more than Germany's 30 largest listed companies that make up the DAX index on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange.
The DAX is worth a combined $1.36 trillion, including business software giant SAP ($162 billion), chemical company Linde ($111 billion), engineering and industrial conglomerate Siemens ($108 billion), and insurance group Allianz ($100 billion). 
The tech giant's market capitalization has now grown to over $1.4 trillion, further cementing its place as the world's most valuable tech company. Only the Saudi Aramco oil company is worth more. 
Hammered: speaking of Saudi Aramco, OPEC is getting hammered by low oil prices and may move the next OPEC meeting forward (sooner than now scheduled). And Russian oil companies say that Russia production may decrease if they don't get some tax relief from Putin. Everyone has problems. Meanwhile, Jerry Jones, owner of the Dallas Cowboys, plans to host the biggest Super Bowl party ever down in Miami, on his yacht. Party like it's 1999. So, that's a trifecta for "hammered": OPEC, Russia, and Super Bowl party attendees.

Ovintiv: already forgot who this is? The old Encana. Link here:
Ovintiv Inc. will update investors Wednesday on its progress for the shale oil assets in Oklahoma it amassed after the $5.5 billion acquisition of Newfield Exploration Co. in 2018. The Stack and Scoop fields in the Anadarko Basin have faced investor scrutiny and operational challenges that sent a handful of small explorers into bankruptcy.
Back to the Bakken

First things first: the CLR Omlid-Ransom wells in Elidah oil field have been updated; some huge wells.

Active rigs:

Active Rigs5465573845

Five wells coming off confidential list today -- Thursday, January 30, 2020: 104 for the month; 104 for the quarter, 104 for the year:
  • 35957, 1,470, Whiting, Cayko 21-22HU, Dore, t8/19; cum 68K 11/19; a 21K month;
  • 35852, drl, XTO, FBIR STephen 21X-19A, Heart Butte,
  • 35115, 54 (no typo), Oasis, Kellogg Federal 5297 11-30 5T, Banks, t8/19; cum 41K 11/19; a 25K month;
  • 34967, 1,880, CLR, Rader 11-24H1, Avoca, t7/19; cum 80K 11/19; a 24K month;
  • 32109, 3,350, CLR, Boulder Federal 8-4H, Banks, t9/19; cum 138K 11/19; a 64K month, followed by a 47K month;
RBN Energy: D-J Basin production gains spur crude gathering systems build-out. Peak oi? What peak oil? Archived
The Denver-Julesburg Basin in northeastern Colorado and southeastern Wyoming has been producing crude oil for many decades now, but there were only a few crude gathering systems there until just the past three or four years, which were marked by a rapid ramp-up in production associated with the Shale Revolution. The development of these systems was spurred by producers’ desire to more efficiently and cost-effectively transport increasing volumes of crude from their new horizontal wells to new and expanded takeaway pipelines. The gathering systems have been built and added to over time by a combination of entities –– producers themselves, midstream affiliates of producers, and independent midstream companies, many of them backed by private equity. Today, we discuss highlights from our new Drill Down Report on D-J Basin crude oil gathering systems.
It would be hard to ignore the D-J Basin of late, given both the rapid growth in crude oil, natural gas and NGL production there and the efforts to develop new takeaway capacity. For example, crude oil production in the D-J has nearly doubled over the past four years and increased by 45% over the past two years to about 620 Mb/d, according to IHS Markit, making the D-J the second-fastest-growing major production area in the U.S. — only the Permian Basin has been growing faster. Natural gas production in the D-J has also been rising fast, from less than 1.6 Bcf/d, on average, in January 2016 to almost 2.8 Bcf/d this month, driven by NGLs-rich associated gas production from crude-focused wells.