Monday, January 6, 2020

Amazon's "Thank You" To US Military Veterans -- November 10, 2019

I have mixed emotions about all the attention US military veterans get on Veterans Day.

Having said that, this is perhaps the most impressive "thing" I have seen: what Amazon is offering.

This is truly amazing. It's hard to believe Amazon won't do this every year which means that military veterans can get a deeply discounted Amazon Prime membership every year going forward. I don't know if Amazon did this last year.

I won't take advantage of the offer. I am more than happy to pay full price for my Amazon Prime membership.

It is pretty remarkable that an official government site posted this announcement.

Hispanic Heritage

Today, Sophia and I visited the grocery store. For some odd reason I picked up a couple of pizza pie crusts already fully baked, for those who want to make their own pizzas at home.  Sophia said, "tacos." LOL.

Not lefse?

It's obvious I'm not raising her "right." My dad would be disappointed. LOL.

The Good Life -- Nothing About The Bakken -- January 6, 2020

TCM tonight: "The Maltese Falcon," 1941. [Same ensemble, one year later, "Casablanca."]

Nabisco Premium Saltines, jalapeno cheese, and Shiner Smokehouse "Original Pit Smoked Summer Sausage."

I had a lot of summer sausage while growing up in Williston; it must have been inexpensive those days because I know my mom did not have much money to spend on groceries. I have been unable to find a really good summer sausage --- until now. This was a Christmas gift from family, and it's the best summer sausage I have ever had. It's the same consistency/flavor of the summer sausage I grew up with but it also has that smoked flavor. It's really, really good.

Over the years, we've bought any number of "higher-priced" crackers for cheese, meat, etc. I generally do not care for any of them ... except Nabisco Premium Saltines. Difficult to improve on the original. Tuna fish spread (homemade) with dill pickles, olives, and jalapenos on saltines is incredible.

A pretty simple life. 

Sophia is back in town after being gone for two weeks. Sophia says she is so happy not to be sleeping in a hotel/motel tonight.

Goodnight, being carried up to bed by her oldest sister, Arianna:

Back to Business

Futures mean squat, but, wow! Right now, futures look really, really interesting. All major indices could set new all-time highs; WTI is down.

Lodgepole Revisited -- January 6, 2020

See the comments at this post.

I'm posting this here so that I can find it more easily if I want to expand on this later.

Tag: Lodgepole.

The well:
  • 17759, 160, MRO, Darwin 14-35H, Murphy Creek, t2/09; cum 55K 11/19;
I track the Murphy Creek oil field here but it has not been updated in a long, long time.

If You Can Handle Roller-Coaster Rides -- January 6, 2019

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, career, travel, job, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Harold Hamm: prognostication. Think about that when looking at note below. 
  • predicts 19% jump in US oil prices within six months
  • regardless of what happens in the Mideast
  • only says "tightening supplies"
  • he didn't mention "right kind of oil"
  • he didn't mention recent stories about global demand for US light, sweet oil
WPX acquires Felix Energy, announced December 16, 2019. I missed this one.
  • WPX, Oklahoma-based, focuses on the Bakken and the Permian
    • Felix Energy, Denver-based
    • WPX specifically interested in Felix's acreage in Texas' Loving, Winkler, and Ward counties in Texas near the New Mexico border; part of the core region of the Permian, Delaware Basin
    • price: $900 million in cash; $1.6 billion in WPX stock;
  • Other deals possible:
    • buyers: 
      • EOG, COP, Pioneer Natural Resources, Noble Energy, Devon Enery, FANG
      • maybe XOM, Chevron, Shell
      • lesser extent: BP, Total
    • could be acquired:
      • WPX
      • Callon Petroleum, which just merged with Carrizo
      • Parsley Energy (part of the 2019 deal scene -- all stock merger between Parsley and Jagged Peak Energy Inc)
      • Cimarex Energy
      • Centennial Resource Development
      • Laredo Petroleum 
  • Lots of talk: 
    • XOM - EOG ($51 billion, $88.80)
    • EOG - Laredo
  • Barron's suggests seven potential 2020 targets (market cap, recent share price):
    • Laredo Petroleum
    • Centennial Resource Development
    • Matador Resources
    • QEP Resources ($1.1 billion, $4.70)
    • SM Energy ($1.4 billion, $12.10, recent jump in price)
    • WPX Energy ($5.9 billion , $14.14)
    • Halcon Resources (privately held)
  • Four I didn't see mentioned:  
    • Whiting ($730 million, $8.00)
    • Oasis ($1.2 billion, $3.60)
    • Enerplus ($1.6 billion, $7.25)
    • Encana($6.4 billion, $4.90)
I can't speak to the Permian, don't know it well enough but it certainly seems the Bakken is ripe for a lot of M&A activity this year. My hunch is we see more written about M&A activity in the Permian simply because the Permian is getting the most attention in general. 

Again, the disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, career, travel, job, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

US Out Of Iraq -- Apparently It's Going To Happen -- Or Not -- January 6, 2020

US-led coalition to leave Iraq. It will be interesting to see the details. But it does remove a land-based target. The US had already shut down its anti-ISIS mission. With that mission shut down, did the US Army on the ground in Iraq have a mission -- other than protecting itself? It would have been interesting to see the DOD PowerPoint Presentation that President Trump saw leading up to the decision.

Wouldn't that be interesting? Trump exits Iraq?

Saudi Arabia: uh-oh.

In flux: now (2:47 p.m. CT) Pentagon spokesman unable to confirm authenticity of letter said to "prepare troops to move out."

Letter: photocopy of letter at Drudge -- it does look like a forgery based on the content. [Later: apparently not a forgery, but now we're told that the "letter was a mistake." LOL. If the letter was authentic, that one-star general may be in a lot of hot water. LOL. A BG spelling out exactly the tactical plan, not particularly smart.]


SecDef: says, "no decision made." -- 3:19 p.m. CT.

The obvious question: who's in charge? This is beginning to sound like the Dallas Cowboys -- wondering who the real coach was?

Pentagon is sending six B-52s to Diego Garcia.

Alexa: Pay For Gas; WPX With Six New Permits In The Bakken -- January 6, 2020

War? What war?
  • Dow could finish in the green by the end of the day, after opening more than 200 points in the red
  • both NASDAQ and S&P 500 could close at all-time highs
  • Google hit an all-time high today
  • AAPL trading near its all-time high
War? What war? Over at twitter, The Washington Post reports that the Pentagon has ordered amphibian forces to prepare to support Mideast operations. 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, career, travel, job, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Twitter: it is being reported that "the US Army" has notified Iraq that it is preparing "to move out." Iraqi prime minister says its time for US to move out. If this is all accurate, this would be huge, and a huge politically-correct move by President Trump. Bringing the troops home, keeping another campaign promise.

Bismarck Tribune: refers to those attacking/burning the US embassy in Iraq as "mourners." Over at twitter today. 

OXY: to cut debt with pipeline split. Link over at Bloomberg --
Occidental Petroleum Corp. plans to make the pipeline business it acquired as part of last year’s takeover of Anadarko Petroleum Corp. a stand-alone company, removing about $7.8 billion of debt from its balance sheet.
Occidental plans to reduce its holdings in Western Midstream Partners to less than 50% by the end of this year but “expects to maintain a significant economic interest” in the company, the Houston-based oil explorer said in a statement Monday.
The amount of debt taken off the balance sheet amounts to about 15% of Occidental’s total borrowings.
Western is among the crown jewel assets that Occidental has sought to sell to reduce leverage incurred in the purchase of Anadarko, the biggest oil merger of the past four years.
Monday’s announcement may signal Occidental hasn’t been able to attract a high enough price, or that potential suitors found the entangled management structure burdensome.
OXY shares: as low as $37.50 within the last month or so; now slightly over $45.

CVX: Chevron is evacuating its non-Iraqi employees from Iraq. 

Exxon partners with Alexa, link here, pretty amazing:
Later this year, motorists whose vehicles are equipped with Amazon’s Echo Auto and other Alexa virtual assistant-enabled mobility devices will be able to pay for fuel at more than 11,500 Exxon- and Mobil-branded stations in the United States.
Exxon Mobil Corp. and the payments and financial technology firm Fiserv, Inc. reported that motorists with the devices will be able to say, “Alexa, pay for gas” at the pump once the new offering becomes available at retail outlets.
After Alexa confirms the station location and pump number, Fiserv will activate the pump and facilitate token generation to help ensure a secure payment experience, the companies noted in a joint written statement Monday.
“Transactions will be processed using Amazon Pay, allowing consumers to securely use the payment information stored in their Amazon account, and powered by digital commerce technology from Fiserv,” ExxonMobil and Fiserv stated, adding that no additional sign-up or separate Amazon account is necessary.

Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

Active Rigs5663543957

Six new permits, #37304 - #37309, inclusive:
  • Operator: WPX
  • Fields: Spotted Horn (McKenzie County), Squaw Creek (McKenzie County)
  • Comments:
    • WPX has permits for a 5-well Crosby Chase pad in Spotted Horn, section 3-150-94;
    • WPX has a permit for an Omaha Woman well in Squaw Creek, section 25-149-95
Eleven permits renewed:
  • Equinor (6): five Pyramid permits in Williams County; one Hawkeye permit in Williams County;
  • EOG (4): four Clarks Creek permits, McKenzie County
  • Whiting: one Wold permit in McKenzie County
Nine producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
  • 31573, 1,855, Equinor, Samson 29-32F XE 1TFH, Banks, t6/19; cum 91K 11/19; a 25K month;
  • 31360, 1,816, Equinor, Samson 29-32 8TFH, Banks, t7/19; cum 33K 11/19; a 15K month;
  • 31572, 814, Equinor, Samson 29-32 7H, Banks, t6/19; cum --;
  • 31362, 2,053, Equinor, Samson 29-32 6H, Banks, t7/19; cum 64K 11/19; a 31K month;
  • 31364, 2,092, Equinor, Samson 29-32 5TFH, Banks, t7/19; cum 48K 11/19; a 23K month;
  • 31359, 868, Equinor, Samson 29-32 1H-R, Banks, t7/19; cum 27K 11/19; a 10K month;
  • 34673, 707, Equinor, Jarold 25-36 XW 1TFH, Todd, t9/19; cum 15K 11/19; no full month of production yet;
  • 34683, 369, Equinor, Jarold 25-36 8TFH, Todd, t11/19; cum --;
  • 34681, 584, Equinor, Jarold 25-36 7H, Todd, t11/19; cum --;
More on the Samson 1H-R well, #31359:
  • back in September, 2017, the operator requested approval to temporarily abandon this well, pending improved economics, etc; this was one of 26 Equinor wells that were tagged as "non-completed wells in abandoned status";
  • then, one year later, September, 2018, the operator requested to extend temporary abandonment of this well for yet another year, with plans to complete this well in 2019
  • the well was spud March 28, 2016
  • TD: July 4, 2016
  • TD: 21,253' MD; 11,018.69' TVD
  • middle Bakken
  • vertical drilled in 79.9 drilling hours in four runs (slightly more than 3 24-hour days)
  • curve was drilled in 10 drilling hours
  • lateral begun at 22:53 on June 30, 2016; drilled in 53 drilling hours (slightly more than 2 24-hour days)
  • middle Bakken was 11' high to prognosis;
  • drill rates: ranged from 22 to 280 ft/hour
  • gas: between 195 and 3,282 units
  • lateral was 100% in zone
  • permit: Samson 29-32 #1H-R; 1280-acre spacing
  • I only looked at a few of these wells in this immediate area and none of them were remarkable

Notes From All Over, Part 2 -- January 6, 2020

Iran: over the weekend I was going to post a note with my 2-cents worth regarding Iran after the US did some bad things to some Iranian generals. After writing the note, I was not satisfied with what I had written so I deleted it. But the good news? A reader directed me to a great op-ed by Victor Davis Hanson in the January 3, 2020, edition of The National Review. It's not yet behind a paywall.

WTI: in the big scheme of things, I find the price of WTI incredibly low considering all that is going on.

Friends in low places: it appears that the only friends Iran has in the west are the Democrats in the US House.  Pelosi moves to limit President Trump's ability to respond to Iranian aggression.

Crude oil: US monthly production, released December 31, 2019 -- data for October, 2019, link here:
  • month-over-month (October, 2019 - September, 2019):
    • US: +1.4%
    • Texas: +1.0%
    • North Dakota: +5.0%
    • New Mexico: +0.3%
  • year-over-year (October, 2019 - October, 2018):
    • US: +8.8%
    • Texas: +11.6%
    • North Dakota: +7.1%
    • New Mexico: +26.7%
Atmospheric CO2, link here:

Comments -- the two decimal points:
  • false precision
  • 0.85 parts per million
  • provides more "gravitas"; would you trust the number more if it were simply, 412? probably not; that 411.85 makes it look so much more scientific;

Notes From All Over, Part 1 -- January 5, 2020

First things first: I completely missed it. The Vikings game. Did they win!? I was traveling. It looks like they won but I was moving through this stuff pretty quickly. Did Drew Brees play?

Memories: we were in San Antonio over the weekend. We lived their for about ten years, probably the place we lived the longest in our entire lives. Lots of memories. Stateside, one of my favorite cities. Maybe more later, but for now, simply a lot of bittersweet memories. Fond memories.

Apathy: tell me again why we should care about the Mideast now that we are energy independent? If the western world thinks the Mideast is important, let others foot the bill -- blood and money. If Iraq wants to go the way of Iran that should be their call.

Futures: looks like Monday could be a great buying opportunity.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Apathy: tell me again why what goes in the Mideast should affect publicly traded companies in America.

The cartoon page. My favorite cartoon of the week may have been the first one:

Mideast War MMXX. December 31, 2019 --

Super Bowl LIV: February 2, 2020.

Geo-politics: The Dallas Morning News Headline -- Leaders, others see US attack on Iranian general as violation of sovereignty. I don't recall that same sentiment after "9-11." Just saying.

Funerals: I see that the Iranians don't plan to have an open-casket viewing of the general. I'm surprised they needed a coffin that big.

Polls: see this post over at The Hill. There's something "fishy" about that article. 
Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg saw a 6-point bump in the latest Hill-HarrisX survey of the Democratic presidential primary.
The nationwide poll, which was released Friday, shows Bloomberg up from 5 percent to 11 percent support for the nomination nationally.
The former New York City mayor is now in a dead heat for third place with top-tier candidate, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), who also received 11 percent support.
Biden, meanwhile, continues to lead the Democratic field with 28 percent followed by Sen. Bernie Sanders at 16 percent.
Former South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg saw another slight dip, after slipping 4 percentage points in mid-December. In the latest survey, he now has 6 percent support, down from 5 percent from the Dec. 13-14 poll (sic). [Must be millennial math.]
Bloomberg’s rise in the latest Hill-HarrisX survey comes in spite of his late entry into the 2020 race and the fact that he hasn’t appeared in any of the Democratic primary debates. 
[There's something fishy about this article, and it's not the 'millennial math.' See below.]
Polls: see this link to realclearpolitics
The Hill references its own poll that was taken 12/27 - 12/28. After that two more polls were released, The Economist, 12/28- 12/31; and, the Harris poll, 12/27 - 12/29. Of the three polls, The Hill is the outlier with regard to Bloomberg. All polls show Bloomberg at 7% or below; only The Hill shows Bloomberg hitting double digits, at 11%. In fact, the two polls that were released later show Bloomberg back to single-digits: 3 - 7%. 

Notes From All Over, Part 1 -- January 6, 2020

Recession is right around the corner: for these nine states -- Kentucky, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Montana, Oklahoma, Vermont, Delaware, and New Jersey. Google it over at Fox Business News.

Permian pipeline competition heats up. Rigzone.
Five new oil pipelines are set to open in the Permian Basin through 2021, expanding a gap between production and takeaway capacity that’s already forcing companies to cut fees and could mean lower profits and cutthroat competition ahead.
Producers in the West Texas and New Mexico oilfield are pumping about 4.72 million barrels a day, according to Rystad Energy AS. That compares with nearly 6 million barrels of pipeline capacity that could rise by about 3.5 million barrels in the next two years as planned new conduits come online.
Most of those planned projects were announced when the Permian was posting annual growth rates in excess of 1 million barrels a day. Now, some analysts see yearly growth slowing to as little as 650,000 barrels a day, with older wells producing less and oil companies preparing to curb spending this year to boost investor returns.
Saudi Aramco: shares hit new low.  Sounds like not all of it due to geo-political tension.

And Other Nonsense

Powerline: linked at the sidebar at the right. Perhaps the best site to put geo-politics, politics, and other nonsense into perspective.

Meaningless resolution: Iraq's resolution to kick the US out of its country. Explains what mainstream media does not.

Ditto: Pelosi says she will introduce legislation to stymie President Trump in the Mideast. Okay.

The adult in the room. Petraeus on Soleimani. "This particular episode has been fairly impressively handled."

Tied all-around. New Iowa poll -- Sanders, Buttigieg, and Biden each poll at 23%. Pocahontas at 16%. Klobuchar, a legend in her own mind, polls at 7%. Steyer, 2%. Bloomberg is not participating in the Iowa caucuses. It is difficult to consider Biden, the placeholder for Hillary, polling at 23%, tied with two others, as any kind of front-runner. CBS/YouGov, polling 953 "likely voters" at RealClearPolitics.

Ten Wells Coming Off Confidential List; ND Rig Count Back Up To 56 -- January 6, 2020

Active rigs:

Active Rigs5663543957

Wells coming off the confidential list:

Monday, January 6, 2019: 21 for the month; 21 for the quarter; 21 for the year:
  • 35888, 896, Enerplus, Squall 149-93-07D-12H-TF, 42 stages; 8.2 million lbs; Mandaree, t7/19; cum 118K 11/19;
  • 35887, 540, Enerplus, Stormy 149-93-07D-12H-LL, Mandaree, t7/19; cum 127K 11/19; 38K month;
  • 35725, 797, Nine POint Energy, State 154-102-25-36-7H,  Rosebud, t7/19; cum 83K 11/19; 
Sunday, January 5, 2019: 18 for the month; 18 for the quarter; 18 for the year:
  • 36287, SI/NC, BR, Veeder 3D TFH, Blue Buttes, no production data,
  • 36286, SI/NC, BR, Veeder 3E MBH, Blue Buttes, no production data,
  • 35317, 720, Oasis, Mildred Nelson Federal 5297 11-30 11TX, Elidah, t7/19; cum 117K 11/19; 30K month;
  • 35238, 492, Lime Rock, Anderson 13-24-4TFH, Alger, t7/19; cum 41K 11/19;
  • 33191, SI/NC, BR, Franklin 24-36TFH, Little Knife, no production data,
Saturday, January 4, 2019: 13 for the month; 13 for the quarter; 13 for the year:
  • 34382, SI/NC, BR, Veeder 3C MBH,  Blue Buttes, no production data, 
  • 34362, 307, Petro Harvester Operating Company, FLX4 17-18 163-90 F, a Madison well, t11/19; cum 9K 11/19;
RBN Energy: Crude-to-gas ratio hits six-year high of 30x -- ramifications for oil, gas, and NGLs.
For the first time since late September 2013, the ratio of crude oil to natural gas (CME/NYMEX) futures on Friday hit 30X. That means the price of crude oil in $/bbl was 30 times the price of natural gas in $/MMBtu. Such a wide disparity in the value of the liquid hydrocarbon versus the gaseous hydrocarbon has huge implications for where producers will be drilling, the proportion of associated and wet gas that will be produced, the outlook for NGL production, and a host of other energy market developments. The ratio has been moving higher for the past couple of years, and recently has been boosted by the combined impact of increased tension in the Middle East (higher oil prices) and a warm winter so far in many of the largest gas-burning population centers in the U.S (lower gas prices). But it’s pretty likely that the trend will be with us for the long term. So today, we’ll begin a series that looks at the implications of this price relationship.