Sunday, April 11, 2021

A Stratigraphic Study Of The Tyler Formation -- Southwestern North Dakota

Recently I took a look at Amsden / Tyler formation in the Dickinson area. I downloaded a PDF but was unable to get the link to make it easy to share on the blog.

I tried something different tonight. I have no idea how it works, why it works, and whether it will work for you, but here is the link for a 2017 UND thesis on the Tyler formation in the Dickinson oil field, southwestern North Dakota.  

If it works, great. If not, google sequence stratigraphy of the tyler formation and then download the pdf that will pop up. 

Re-Posting: China's Pedal To The Metal -- April 11, 2021


These Guys Worry Too Much

Here, talk to the 750,000 folks who filed new unemployment claims this past week and the millions still unemployed. 

File under "Debbie Downer." The "Anthony Fauci" of the school of economics. Where's Paul Krugman when we need him?

And why is he wearing a mask? Doesn't he qualify for his Covid-19 vaccination? And if he does, has he gotten it? Is he fully vaccinated? Everyone in government, with this degree of "importance," should have been first in line to get their vaccinations. Speaking of which, why hasn't the president issued an executive order mandating military personnel get vaccinated?

Housing Bubble -- Confusing Data Points -- April 11, 2021

If this is accurate, interesting to say the least -- link here:

Spain Surprised By "Cold" This Past Winter -- Are You Kidding Me? April 11, 2021

Link here.  From The Daily Star: Spain trims 2021 GDP forecast as Covid, snow hit economyWhatever happened to global warming? Spain was Europe's poster child taking on global warming -- now hit with cold weather -- cold weather that may have wiped out much of France's vineyards, and hit Spain back in January.

Isn't is supposed to get cold in winter? Whatever.

From the linked article:

The Spanish government lowered its growth forecast for 2021 on Friday after fresh pandemic restrictions led to a weaker-than-expected first quarter.

It now expects the Spanish economy, the eurozone's fourth largest, to grow by 6.5 percent this year, down from the 7.2 per cent forecast in October. "The recovery ... slowed in the first quarter and was lower than what we expected," Economy Minister Nadia Calvino told a news conference. 
"We expect growth to speed up in the second half of 2021," she added.Spain suffered a third wave of Covid-19 infections during the first two months of the year which led to tighter curbs on social life. 
And in early January much of the centre of the country including Madrid were hit by a massive snowstorm which paralysed the economy for days.

The downward revision puts the government's forecasts more in line with those of other bodies.The Bank of Spain last month lowered its 2021 growth forecast to 6.0 percent from 6.8 per cent while the International Monetary Fund expects a 6.4 per cent expansion.

France? Link here

French fruit growers and winemakers are warning that the majority of their harvest this year has been lost to this week's frost (early April, 2021).

"N region has been spared: beets, rape, barley, vines, fruit trees ... all the different king of support must be activated urgently," the National Federation of Unions for Farmers stressed.

I guess global warming isn't as bad as it's been cracked up to be. 

Meanwhile, here in the states, hitting on all cylinders, thank you Mr Trump, Berkshire Hathaway hit a new milestone: BRK-A closed right at $400,000. Link here. 

Suitable for framing:

For Investors: Theme For 2021 -- Incredible Bull Run, 2021 - 2026


January 19, 2022: Goldman Sachs calls for a 10-year commodity supercycle. Link to Alex KimaniArchived. Copper is the new oil.

Original Post

At the sidebar at the right, I have a link to "Themes: 2021."

For investors, the 2021 theme is an incredible bull run from 2021 to 2026.

More support for this incredible bull run over the next five year: this could be the hottest summer ever -- for freight. From ZeroHedge.

The Inbound Ocean TEU Volume Index (IOTI), which measures maritime bookings for twenty-foot equivalent units for U.S. imports, is set to hit an all-time high this week. 
The IOTI starts in January 2019 but covers one of the most active periods in maritime shipping thanks to the pandemic. 
With imports being tied more closely than ever to surface freight volumes and transportation demand, this could be a signal of an extremely active summer for domestic surface transportation providers.

But we've been here before, leading up to the holiday season, November / December, 2021.

More from the linked article:
Import booking activity measures freight that will hit the U.S. two to six weeks in advance and has been connected to surface transportation volumes over the past year
After a quicker-than-anticipated recovery in consumer spending on durable goods last spring, shippers found themselves low on inventory and began placing orders at a record pace last May.

Whereas the connection between truckload and import volumes has not always been this close, the urgency of the past year has closed the gap between the time the freight is on the ship to the time it moves on a truck.

With many shippers caught off guard by changing consumer behaviors, there was no budget or plan for what occurred in most of 2020. Companies have found themselves playing catch-up most of the year, and the recent surge in consumer spending thanks to a new stimulus bill and continued quarantine this winter has not helped them recover.

The IOTI shows bookings up to a week in advance, meaning it is measuring freight that is being requested to leave their ports of origin over the next seven days. The spike in bookings over the next week is on the heels of a longer-running increase that began in late January.

Most interesting data point in that ZeroHedge article: the impact on the trucking industry. A google search revealed this: in March, 2021, demand for Class 8 trucks was up 103% year-over-year

There was good news and some questionable news over the weekend. The good news can be summed by the trucking industry deciding it needed more vehicles last month, pushing up sales 108% year-over-year. 
There was another sale, though, that could generate more questions from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), which is investigating former Nikola CEO Trevor Milton. He sold 3.5 million of his Nikola shares for $49 million six months after he resigned in a cloud of controversy. 

Another google search revealed this: legacy automakers see massive spike in sales.  

BMW is the latest legacy automaker to smash its sales comps for Q1, as automakers benefit from 2020's poor sales due to the pandemic. BMW said it delivered 636,606 BMW, MINI, and Rolls-Royce vehicles to customers during the quarter. The figure isn't just a 33.5% rise in sales for the automaker, it's also a new all-time high for sales for the company's first quarter.

Not unlike other legacy automakers, BMW also saw a massive surge in electric vehicles. Its sales of EVs more than doubled to 70,207 units during the quarter. Total sales rose by 8.3% in Europe, 17,3% in the Americas, and an astounding 76.4% in Asia - thanks to Q1 2020's lockdowns. 

Recall, yesterday we noted that Mercedes also smashed its Q1 numbers. Sales were up 22% in Q1 thanks to not only easy comps but also record demand out of China. Globally, Mercedes-Benz sold 581,270 cars and saw its China sales figures rise by 60%. China is the biggest market for the brand and had the most favorable comps, similar to BMW

Truck sales here

The pop for both automakers in North America shouldn't be too much of a surprise. We wrote just days ago that most legacy automakers in the U.S. were posting fantastic Q1 comps.

And, in general: 

The Most Ridiculous Headline So Far This Year -- April 11, 2021

From the NY Times today:

From Wall Street, Friday, April 8, 2021:

The WPX Patricia Kelly Wells -- April 11, 2021


December 20, 2021: DUCs starting to be reported --

37232, 2,409, WPX, Patricia Kelly 2-1HA, Spotted Horn, 33-053-09306, first production, 5/21; t--; cum 216K 10/21; fracked 4/13/2021 - 4/19/21; another small frack: 4.9 million gallons of water; 82.925% water by mass; proppant 16.33% by mass; see this post.

September 24, 2021: still DUCs but production started to be reported; huge, huge wells; 

Original Post

The wells:

  • 37324, conf-->drl/NC, WPX, Patricia Kelly 2-1HUL, Antelope, no production data, but this is one of the best oil fields in the Bakken;
  • 37232, conf-->drl/NC, 2,409, WPX, Patricia Kelly 2-1HA, Spotted Horn, 33-053-09306, first production, 5/21; t--; cum 216K 10/21; fracked 4/13/2021 - 4/19/21; another small frack: 4.9 million gallons of water; 82.925% water by mass; proppant 16.33% by mass; see this post.
  • 37231, conf-->drl/NC, WPX, Patricia Kelly 2-1HXL Spotted Horn, no production data,
  • 37230, conf-->drl/NC, WPX, Patricia Kelly 2-1HS, Spotted Horn, no production data,
  • 23639, 1,482, WPX, Patricia Kelly 2-1HB, Spotted Horn, t3/13; cum 388K 7/20; off line 8/20; remains off line 3/21;

Wells of interest to the south, these wells will be tracked here.

  • 37308, drl/NC, WPX, Crosby Chase 2-1HC, Spotted Horn, no production data,
  • 37307, drl/NC, WPX, Crosby Chase 2-1HY, Spotted Horn, no production data,
  • 37306, drl/NC, WPX, Crosby Chase 2-1HG, Spotted Horn, no production data,
  • 37305, drl/NC, WPX, Crosby Chase 2-1HZ, Spotted Horn, no production data,
  • 37304, drl/NC, WPX, Crosby Chase 2-1HIL, Spotted Horn, no production data,

Notes And Commentary

Let's see if the daughter wells are better than the parent well. Experts tell us that the daughter wells in shale always do worse than the parent wells.

Early production data:

  • 23639, IA/1,482, WPX, Patricia Kelly 2-1HB, Spotted Horn, t3/13; cum 388K 7/20; off line 8/20; remains off line 3/21;

From the file report (one of the better file reports for discussion of the geology):

  • 27 miles east of Watford City,  on, or near, the Little Knife anticline
  • thickness of the middle Bakken, target: 10 feet thick
  • 84.7% of the well bore within the pay zone (below the current standard)
  • big rig, spud: October 27, 2012;
  • curve building began November 10, 2012; landed on November 12, 2012 (a bit longer than the current standard)
  • lateral: began drilling on November 15, 2012; concluded, November 26, 2012;
  • frack: 16 stages; 3.23 million lbs of proppant
  • early production:


From the well file:
Three contacts with the middle Bakken Limestone and two with the Low Gamma zone occurred while drilling the lateral section. 
The first contact occurred at approximately 12,000’ MD with a total of 430’ drilled below the pay zone in the middle Bakken Limestone. This out of pay zone footage was an intentional drop made through the section immediately out of intermediate casing in order to get a complete resistivity and gamma ray profile of the entire pay zone. This was requested by operations for future reference while drilling the lateral section. Once a full profile was achieved, the borehole immediately was built in section to get back into the center of the middle Bakken pay zone. 
The second contact occurred at approximately 16,000’ MD with the middle Bakken Limestone, resulting in 387’ drilled below the pay zone. This encounter was most likely attributed to bit deflection while bed lithologies were transitioning from a “flat” dip to a relatively upward dip. 
Two contacts with the Low Gamma zone at Patricia Kelly 2-1 HB occurred at approximately 18,400’ MD and approximately 20,000’ MD resulting in 403’ and 133’ drilled above the pay zone, respectively. 
Both of these out of zone footages were possibly attributed to bit deflection while drilling the well bore after initial builds in section to calculate bed thicknesses encountered and crossed up into the Low Gamma zone. 
The difficulty in turning it over back into the middle of the pay zone was most likely from the bit deflecting off the top of the target zone. 
The fifth contact was with the middle Bakken Limestone occurring at 21,200’ MD with 159’ drilled below the pay zone. Based on the response of the bit through this section, the difficulty in penetrating back up into the upper pay zone was again likely a result of bit deflection from the middle Bakken Limestone at the very end of the lateral section. 
The accumulated out-of-pay zone footage for at Patricia Kelly 2-1 HB was 1,512’, representing 15.3% of the total lateral footage out of zone.

The graphics:


Initial Production Data For Wells Coming Off The Confidential List This Next Week -- April 11, 2021

The wells:

Oil Runs
MCF Sold
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
  • 37232, conf, WPX, Patricia Kelly 2-1HA, Antelope, no production data, see this post;
  • 37324, conf, WPX, Patricia Kelly 2-1HUL, Antelope, no production data, see this post;
  • 37833, drl/drl, Midwest AgEnergy Group, LLC, MAG 1, wildcat, lot 1 section 18-145-82;

Wells Coming Off The Confidential List This Next Week -- April 11, 2021

Monday, April 19, 2021: 17 for the month, 17 for the quarter, 98 for the year:
35803, conf,   Enerplus, Blizzard 149-93-07A-12H-TF,  

Sunday, April 18, 2021: 16 for the month, 16 for the quarter, 97 for the year:
37716, conf,  CLR, Carson Peak 12-35H1,

Saturday, April 17, 2021: 15 for the month, 15 for the quarter, 96 for the year:
37794, conf,   CLR, Carson Peak 13-35H,
36922, conf,   MRO, Lang USA 41-8TFH,

Friday, April 16, 2021: 13 for the month, 13 for the quarter, 94 for the year:
37795, conf,  CLR, Carson Peak 14-35HSL1,
37230, conf, WPX, Patricia Kelly 2-1HS,

Thursday, April 15, 2021: 11 for the month, 11 for the quarter, 92 for the year:
37231, conf,  WPX, Patricia Kelly 2-1HX,
36248, conf,  BR, Stortroen 2D MBH,
35802, conf,  Enerplus, Sleet 149-93-07A-12H,

Wednesday, April 14, 2021: 8 for the month, 8 for the quarter, 89 for the year:
37232, conf, WPX, Patricia Kelly 2-1HA,

Tuesday, April 13, 20211: 7 for the month, 7 for the quarter, 88 for the year:
37324, conf, WPX, Patricia Kelly 2-1HUL,

Monday, April 12, 2021: 6 for the month, 6 for the quarter, 87 for the year:

Sunday, April 11, 2021: 6 for the month, 6 for the quarter, 87 for the year:
37833, conf, Midwest AgEnergy Group, LLC, MAG 1,

Saturday, April 10, 2021: 5 for the month, 5 for the quarter, 86 for the year:

French Toast: Global Warming Smacks France and Vintners -- April 11, 2021

It's always "historic" and "unprecedented" and "unexpected" when there's a cold wave somewhere -- do you remember that "historic, unprecedented, unexpected" Texas deep freeze just a couple of months ago? Now, France.

"Historic" bout of frost decimates French winemakers' harvest. Link here. One would think that they could have forecast this "historic" cold spell and prepared for it. After all, "they" can predict global temperature one hundred years from now.

By the way, one word: eiswein. My favorite dessert drink. Gator Bite is a close second. And then, I have some wonderful memories of Drambuie with a beautiful woman well before I was married. But that's another story for another day. Or never. What happens in South Pasadena stays in South Pasadena.

The "tag" will change to "GlobalWarming_2021_2022" on June 1, 2021.

French toast, a 10-minute prep breakfast:

This can be done on a Weber but it's quicker on the kitchen stove. 

A Musical Interlude

This did more than define rock and roll. It defined California for the next forty years.

The Teenage Awards Music International Show

House band those two nights:

  • Guitars: Glen Campbell, Tommy Tedesco
  • Piano: Leon Russel
  • Drums: Hal Blaine
Tommy Tedesco:
  • Wrecking Crew
  • playing credits include the themes from:
  • Bonanza, The Twilight Zone, Green Acres, M*A*S*H,
  • Elvis Presley's '68 Comeback Special

Cornucopia -- April 11, 2021


April 12, 2021: from Breitbart --

America is China’s top supplier of corn so far in 2021, Chinese media noted Sunday, with corn prices in China at record highs.

Corn is used in China for feeding pigs — pork is the nation’s most popular meat — making it an indispensable crop. Increased demand for corn follows not just a devastating African swine flu outbreak that sent pork prices soaring, but torrential floods that destroyed much of China’s 2020 crop yield and raised concerns of food shortages in the world’s most populous nation.

Original Post

US farmers celebrate as corn exports near records. Link here

Reuters reports US corn exports "have blown past nearly every benchmark" as China, the world's largest food and ag importer, appears to be ramping up purchases of US farm goods. 
What's mildly funny is how China has begun to purchase large amounts of farm goods from the US under the Biden administration. 
According to official US export data Wednesday, February's corn exports recorded 6.3 million tons. 
The amount topped "2008's record for the month by 17% and is the largest monthly volume since July 2018," said Reuters. A few months back, December's corn exports exploded to 13-year highs. The first-quarter outlook already suggests record volumes. 

Even a caveman can "read" this graph: the graph says that under the Obama administration, things were simply incredibly awful. 

By the way, this will lead to a stand-along commentary when I get caught up. 

The other day I noted:

  • Got corn? Corn futures rise to highest since 2013 before USDA report. 

Here's the link and the story:

Chicago corn futures climbed more than 3% on Thursday, April 8, 2021, to hit their highest since 2013, as the market was buoyed by smaller-than-expected US planting.

Another metric that doesn't matter (don't take that out of context).

Google search on the blog for "corn."

Back on February 13, 2013 -- note the Reuters date above -- coincidental? I think not -- Don sent me a great story. Here's the blog link with the story link "inside": 

Narrow-row corn just got narrower. Stine Seed Company planted and harvested 2,500 acres of 12-in.-row corn in central Iowa last year. A hybrid designed for high density production yielded 320 to 330 bu./acre on the cropland.
“(The fields) were up where we had a little extra rain and a little extra nitrogen on it,” reports Harry Stine, president, Stine Seed. “Most of our other yields were much lower with a farm average of 145 bu./acre (mostly 22½-in. rows).”
The trend to 20- and 15-in.-row corn has been around for years. But interest in even narrower rows such as 12 in. has increased as growers seek the elusive 300 bu./acre yield mark.

That's for the "average" farmer. 

David Hula isn't average

David Hula grows 600-bushel+ corn. Link here. This was just one year ago, January 6, 2020.

Meanwhile, from the USDA just a few days ago:

Increased acreage and higher yields for corn and soybeans allowed both crops to return to more typical production levels, according to the 2020 Crop Production Annual Summary released today by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS).

U.S. corn growers produced 14.2 billion bushels, up 4% from 2019. Corn yield in the United States is estimated at 172.0 bushels per acre, 4.5 bushels above the 2019 yield of 167.5 bushels per acre. Area harvested for grain, at 82.5 million acres, is up 1% from 2019.

Soybean production for 2020 totaled 4.14 billion bushels, up 16% from 2019. With record high yields in Indiana, Kentucky, Mississippi, Missouri, New Jersey, and Tennessee, the average soybean yield is estimated at 50.2 bushels per acre, 2.8 bushels above 2019, but 0.5 bushel below the Nov. 1 forecast.

For 2020, all cotton production is down 25% from 2019, at 15.0 million 480-pound bales. The U.S. yield is estimated at 825 pounds per acre, up 2 pounds from last year’s yield. Harvested area, at 8.70 million acres, is down 25% from last year.

Also released today were the Winter Wheat and Canola Seedings and Grain Stocks reports. The Winter Wheat and Canola Seedings report provides the first indicator of this year’s winter wheat acreage. Planted area for harvest in 2021 is estimated at 32.0 million acres, up 5% from 2020.