Saturday, September 26, 2015

Flashback: A Whiting Well From 2010 -- September 26, 2015


September 27, 2015: after posting the note below, a reader reminded me to take a look at this "older" well, also a "2010 well" --
  • 17912, 2,581, Whiting, Sorenson 11-3H, Sanish, middle Bakken, 18 stages, ~ 3 million lbs, F, t2/10; cum 758K 7/15;
Incredibly, the well is still not on a pump according to the NDIC. There are only four long laterals in this drilling unit (plus a shorter one sited in southwest corner and running south into next section). Lots of work yet to be done in this section if there are  multiple payzones.

I've highlighted this well numerous times on the blog. Look at the current production and how little water is being produced, and no flaring: 

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Original Post
Flashback: the Bakken boom began in North Dakota in 2007 (2000 in Montana). By 2010 things were moving along quickly but it was very, very expensive to drill and operators still had much to learn about the Bakken. As a rule of thumb, apparently I was using a price of $50/bbl back in 2010 -- not a whole lot different than what WTI is going for now (at least on the TV crawler). Even with all the unknowns and high cost of leases and drilling and working without the infrastructure that exists today, operators were doing their thing.

A post from August 4, 2010:
18409, 2,404, Kinnoin 21-14H, Sanish, NENW 14-154-91
Cumulative: 98,265 bbls in 83 days.

At $50/bbl, that's $4.9 million at the wellhead. In less than 90 days.

Other operators in the Bakken opine that these wells will have an economic life-time of 39 years. They have horrific decline rates, but something tells me the technology will keep improving over the years. I wonder if a pump has even been put on this well yet?

It would be great to hear some of the details of the well: number of frac stages; sand or ceramics?
So, how did that well do?
  • 18409, 2,404, Kinnoin 21-14H, Sanish, NENW 14-154-91, Sanish, open hole, 2 million lbs sand, t3/10; cum 574K 7/15;

$4 Billion Petrochemical Plant In North Dakota To Be Supplied By CLR -- September 26, 2015

S o m a n y s t o r y l i n e s . . .

The Dickinson Press is reporting:
A Denver-based company that unveiled plans last fall for a $4 billion petrochemical plant in North Dakota said Friday it has entered into a long-term ethane supply agreement with one of the biggest players in the state’s Oil Patch.
Badlands NGL’s said it has entered a “precedent agreement” with Continental Resources Inc. to supply the plant with ethane gas, a byproduct of natural gas processing that will be converted into polyethylene for use in a wide variety of plastic products.
Shane Goettle of the Bismarck-based firm Odney, a consultant on the project, said Badlands won’t be able to draw on Continental’s ethane until the plant is completed, hopefully in three to five years.
For newbies, a reminder: the Bakken is an oily play, not a natural gas play.

Badlands has not identified a location yet for the North Dakota plant.
Gilliam also said in June that the company plans to build a second ethane plant in the continental United States.

Saturday, September 26, 2015

Active rigs:

Active Rigs71190184187191

For The Archives

Hey! The 2Q15 GDP was even better than originally reported -- 3.9% vs 3.7% previous estimate.

GDPNow forecasts 3Q15 GDP at about 1.5 percent. This is seven years into the Obama Recovery and a gazillion dollars in stimulus.

Wall Street braces for grim third quarter earnings season -- Reuters. Little improvement expected any time soon:
Forecasts for third-quarter S&P 500 earnings now call for a 3.9 percent decline from a year ago with half of the S&P sectors estimated to post lower profits thanks to falling oil prices, a strong U.S. dollar and weak global demand.    
 Expectations for future quarters are falling as well. A rolling 12-month forward earnings per share forecast now stands near negative 2 percent, the lowest since late 2009, when it was down 10.1 percent.
Just remember: when facing a grizzly, you only have to outrun your friend. Did I mention that this is seven years into the Obama Recovery and a gazillion dollars in stimulus.

George Soros has the lead article in the most recent issue of The New York Review of Books. He says "Europe now faces at least five crises at the same time: four internal ones -- the euro, Greece, migration, and the British referendum on whether to remain in the EU -- and an external one, Russian aggression against Ukraine." It's a pretty good article -- considering the source -- but I quit reading when his solution was more money from Europe (read, "Germany") to save the Ukraine. No link; this is from the print edition.

The Los Angeles Times has a long article on roof-top solar and net-metering. If you hit the paywall, google utilities seek to charge solar system owners more for connection to grid.

This Science Is Not Dead

Unlike "global warming," a subject that has been settled, where science is no longer necessary, the search for habitable planets continues to evolve. That science is, apparently, not dead. Quartz is reporting that theoretical astrophysicists have discovered that millions of planets are more habitable than we realized. So, even though the question of anthropogenic "global warming" story is closed for scientific discussion, the search for habitable plants goes on:
The hunt for extra-terrestrials has expanded, after theoretical astrophysicists discovered that millions of planets once dismissed as inhospitable could in fact be suitable for alien life.
Earth-like planets are the obvious first place to look for life, but a large number of these orbit stars known as orange and red dwarfs, which are smaller than the Earth’s sun.
Dwarf stars are extremely common—they make up more than 70% of stars in the universe—and nearly every red dwarf is thought to have a planet located within a habitable distance and with similar water levels to Earth.
But until recently, there’s been a catch—Earth-sized planets rotating dwarfs were thought to suffer from rotational lockup. That means they rotate with one side always facing the star, much like how one side of the Moon always faces the Earth. This would create a planet that was half scorching desert and half ice sheet, which is hardly ideal for life.
A big thank you to Don for spotting the article and the irony.

For The Granddaughters

It's a long, long story, but suffice it to say that our middle granddaughter had a great day at soccer.

Her "academy" or "club" team  won 6 - 0. On the "club" team, she plays defense.

Her "recreational" or "fun" team won 5 -1. She scored a hat trick (three consecutive points); her friend scored the other two. On the "rec" team, our granddaughter plays midfield.

Holy Smoke!

This week is "garlic festival" at  Central Market, Southlake, Texas -- the same week that the Pope was visiting the US.

In honor of both -- the garlic and the Pope:

Holy Smoke

I don't know if you can see it -- the barbecue is called the "Holy Smoke." I see that the "H" is not seen in the video, but no, for you Norwegians out there, this is not the "Ole Smoke."

Background Noise -- September 26, 2015

Platts is reporting:
US Midwest gasoline prices shot up Friday as market sources said inventories in the region are drying up.
Active trading early in the day pushed the assessed cash differential for Chicago CBOB up 11 cents to the NYMEX November RBOB futures contract plus 33 cents/gal. Offers as high as futures plus 36 cents/gal were heard in the afternoon.
"I think inventories are getting low," one Midwest trader said.
Data released this week by the US Energy Information Administration backed that up, showing total Midwest gasoline stocks falling 434,000 barrels to 47.53 million barrels for the week ended September 18. CBOB stocks fell 1.07 million barrels to 28.47 million barrels.
The EIA said Midwest refinery utilization rates dropped 6.2 percentage points to 92.1%, while crude runs fell 235,000 b/d to 3.54 million b/d. "It's just got a lot of little problems keeping refiners off the offer," a second source said. "Phillips 66 and Marathon have been steady bids and I hear Whiting rumors."
BP's 413,000 b/d Whiting, Indiana, refinery shut a 75,000 b/d crude distillation unit on Thursday for planned work, according to IIR Energy.
Inventories getting low?
  • 434K / 47.964 million = 0.1% decrease in Midwest gasoline stocks. 
  • 1.07 million / 29.54 million = 3.6% decrease in CBOB stocks
  • 235,000 / 3,775,000 = 6.2% 
Somehow I think we'll manage.

A Sign Of The Times
But We Saw Same Thing In 2011 When Boom Was Just Beginning

The Dickinson Press is reporting:
Job Service North Dakota is offering its employees voluntary buyouts and looking to cut other costs to cope with a $4.1 million budget shortfall for the fiscal year that begins October 1, 2015.
Data points:
  • annual budget in the range of $30 million
  • funding was cut $2.5 million for 2016 
  • 226 employees; article does not say but looks like less than ten employees will be laid off
  • in 2011, similar process resulted in loss of 6 employees
  • 97% federally funded
  • 16 locations across the state
  • website still sees increased demand; 17,400 job openings listed
  • Williston with 1,400 jobs listed; 74 added on Tuesday last week
  • unemployment funds from trust fund not at risk
In the military, we experienced RIFs (reductions in force -- generally civilian, but often military), it seems, every year. Background noise; the ebb and flow of society. 

Political Funding
Is Watford City A Bigger Source Than Williston, Minot?

The difference in the size of the pink dots is almost imperceptible, but it certainly appears Watford City accounts for more political funding than Williston and possibly Minot. Now, who in Watford City would be funding whom in the race for US president? Curious minds want to know.