Tuesday, December 13, 2016

Well, Isn't This Interesting? -- MSNBC And Donald Trump -- December 13, 2016

During the last six years of the Obama administration I did not watch television or listen to network news, except on very, very rare occasions. That all changed November 9, 2016. I now set my alarm to wake up every morning to watch MSNBC's "Morning Joe." I've blogged about it several times. It's the only non-sports show I watch on television. Earlier today I wrote that "Morning Joe" was very positive about Trump's selection of Rex Tillerson for SecState.

Elsewhere I wrote:
December 13, 2016, T+34: MSNBC "Morning Joe" almost giddy, certainly very, very positive, about Rex Tillerson as the SecState pick. Mika was relieved it was not Rudy.
Moments ago, a reader sent me this story from The Washington Post: Donald Trump might just have made Joe Scarborough as important as he always thought he was.
Joe Scarborough knew he had Donald Trump’s ear. And so, in the fall of 2015, not long after the businessman launched a long-shot presidential campaign, the MSNBC host sat him down for a lecture.

Things were about to “get real,” Scarborough says he told the newbie politician. It didn’t matter that they had golfed together or laughed together during Trump’s many jolly, blustering cameos on Scarborough’s freewheeling talk shows. Now he was a candidate, and “Morning Joe” would have to hit him with tough questions, and scrutiny of a kind he never faced as a branding mogul and reality-TV star.

“I said, ‘Donald, here’s the deal,’ ” Scarborough recalled last week. “‘We were friends before the campaign, and when the parade stops and everybody turns on you like they do in politics, we’ll be your friends after the campaign.’”

Okay. I've been at this for several hours. I'm going to take a break. Do something constructive. Like find some great tunes on YouTube and listen to them with my new vintage Beats headphones. 

Montana Pol Offered Secretary Of The Interior -- December 13, 2016

From Politico:
President-elect Donald Trump has offered the interior secretary position to Montana’s freshman Rep. Ryan Zinke, an ex-Navy Seal commander, according to two transition officials and someone familiar with the offer.
The sources said Zinke has yet to accept and has given no indication as to which way he is leaning. But Zinke is also being discussed by prominent Washington Republicans as a possible 2018 candidate for the Montana Senate seat now held by Democrat Sen. Jon Tester.
He could take Interior job for two years, then run for senator if tea leaves look good. 

More from the linked article:
This is shaping up to be the most pro-energy administration in recent history. And that's a very good thing.
Policies now in place under Obama that demonize cheap, plentiful supplies of conventional energy while spending hundreds of billions of dollars subsidizing inefficient "alternative" energy such as wind and solar will likely disappear — or be changed beyond recognition. As for the Paris Agreement on global warming that absurdly calls on the U.S. to reduce its CO2 output by nearly a third by 2030, it will likely be scrapped or ignored, since it's main purpose was to slow the U.S. economy.

Non-Bakken News And Comments -- December 13, 2016

Verizon considering acquiring CBS?

Beats headphones? Awesome.

Needles and Pins, Smokie

How the frackers beat OPEC. From The Atlantic. Huge "thank you" to a reader for sending me this. I haven't read the article yet, but if the writer doesn't mention the other half of the story, I will be disappointed. The full title should be: how the frackers beat OPEC and the green lobby in the White House.
Fracking, it turns out, is a remarkably nimble industry—which perhaps, in retrospect, should not have been such a surprise. In the early years of the fracking boom, a Harvard Ph.D. student, Thomas Covert, studied records related to wells fracked in the Bakken shale formation. Wells that were newly tapped in 2005, he found, captured on average only 21 percent of the profits they could have produced if they’d been fracked in the most optimal way—that is, with the best mix of water and sand. By 2012, though, newly fracked wells were capturing 60 percent of maximal profits.
This is what the article does not mention. The oil industry was incredibly lucky. I wrote about this back in 2009. By the time fracking was a success, the barn doors were open; the horses were out. There was no way to get the wild horses back in. The oil industry caught the green lobby, the environmentalists off-guard. The frackers had a three-to-four year headstart. Had the greenies been paying attention, they could have keystoned the frackers in 2010.

The frackers had another bit of luck. Hillary had promised to ban fracking, start a war on fracking, just as Obama had started a war on coal. It's hard to say what Hillary could have done, but one can be sure she would not have been a friend of the oil and gas industry. The frackers dodged a silver bullet. The frackers can thank the rural voters in Ohio and Pennsylvania. And Jill Stein who stole enough votes from Hillary to give Donald Trump the election.

No one has talked about frackers' luck. But they probably missed being keystoned by a very small margin. If a handful of out-of-state agitators can stop the Keystone, the Sandpiper, and the DAPL, the weight of the Democratic machine certainly could have stopped fracking had it been paying attention. 

Before it's all over, the environmentalists will probably blame the Russians.

Rick Perry. Over at Investor's Business Daily. Regardless of what many think of him, he's going to drive the Sierra Club nuts.

Solar? Why Do We Even Bother? -- December 13, 2016

Starting in 2017, I had planned to downplay solar / wind energy. I planned to never post a stand-alone post on renewable energy. But this is so egregious, I really had no choice.

Solar electricity? Why do we even bother.

How much US electricity is generated by solar energy? This is after decades of federal government arm-twisting, tax credits, grants, crony capitalism.

Here's the graphic.

Solar represents 5% of renewable. And renewable represents 13% of all US electricity.

0.05 x 0.13 = 0.0065 or 0.65%. Yes, that barely rounds to 1%.

Wind, at 35% of all renewables, is 7x that of solar. And wind?  0.35 x .13 = 4.6% of US generated electricity.

It turns out this graphic was previously posted.

Previous posts:
Best Christmas Gift Ever?

Maybe, maybe not. I don't know. I've had some nice gifts over the years.

But this is certainly in the top ten. It's an original, vintage Beats Dr Dre pair of headphones. After Apple bought Beats, "Dr Dre" came off the headphones, I am told. I don't know. Be that as it may, my daughter saw these vintage Beats Dr Dre headphones at a pawn shop in Denton, TX. She said she immediately knew -- my name was all over them.

Well, not my name, perhaps, but they are incredible. The quality is incredible. And the color .. what can I say?

One hundred years from now, on the "Antique Road Show," they will be worth thousands. Because they will come with a great story. 

Whiting Reports A High-Intensity, High-IP Carscallen Well In The Bakken -- December 13, 2016

Active rigs:

Active Rigs4065181190182

Another day with no new permits.

One well coming off confidential list Wednesday:
Six producing wells (DUCs) reported to be completed:
  • 29590, 929, EOG, Fertile 57-033H, Parshall, t12/16; cum --
  • 30428, 1,653, Statoil, Jack 21-16 3TFH, East Fork, t11/16; cum --
  • 30429, 1,770, Statoil, Ruth 28-33 2TFH, East Fork, t11/16; cum --
  • 31106, 1,810, Whiting, Koala 44-5-2H, Poe, t11/16; cum --
  • 31108, 2,291, Whiting, Koala 44-5-3H, Poe, t11/16; cum --
  • 31409, 2,514, Whiting, Koala 44-5TFHU, Poe, t11/16; cum --
I track the Koala wells here although they haven't been updated in a long, long time.

And, not much else. Several days  now with no new permits.


32340, see above, Whiting, Carscallen31-14-4H, Truax:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

CLR Reports Record STACK Meramec Well -- December 13, 2016

From company press release, headline:
Angus Trust 1-4-33XH Flows at 4,642 Barrels of Oil Equivalent (45% Oil) in 24-Hour Initial Production Test; Located Immediately North of Boden 1-15-10XH Company Raises Expected 2016 Production Exit Rate to 213,000 to 218,000 Barrels of Oil Equivalent per Day
Continental Resources, Inc. today announced a new company record well in the over-pressured oil window of the Oklahoma STACK play.

The Angus Trust 1-4-33XH produced 4,642 barrels of oil equivalent (boe) per day in a 24-hour test, comprised of 2,088 barrels of oil (bo) and 15.3 million cubic feet (MMcf) of natural gas. During this initial production test, the Angus Trust flowed at 5,200 psi (pounds per square inch). Continental has a 78% working interest in the well. The Angus Trust well is located immediately north of Continental's Boden 1-15-10XH in south central Blaine County.

The Boden produced an initial 24-hour test rate of 3,508 Boe, 28% oil, at a flowing casing pressure of more than 5,000 psi. The Boden was Continental's first completion in the condensate window of the over-pressured STACK. In just over a year, the Boden has produced 591,000 Boe, 26% oil.

The Boden is currently producing 1,815 Boe per day, 22% oil, at a flowing casing pressure of 2,900 psi.
To compare this record IP in the Meramec with the record IP in the Bakken, see FAQ #9
From the Whiting 1Q15 transcript: The Flatland Federal 11-4TFH well produced at an initial rate of 7,800 BOEs per day during a 24-hour test of the Three Forks formation, making this the very best well in the basin. The Flatland Federal 11-4HR well produced at an initial rate of 7,100 BOEs per day during a 24-hour test of the Middle Bakken formation.

Enerplus To Sell Non-Operated Assets In The Bakken -- December 13, 2016

Press release here. Data points:
  • Enerplus to sell non-operated assets in North Dakota
  • buyer not identified
  • 5,800 acres, primarily located on the Fort Berthold Indian Reservation with average working interest per drilling spacing unit of 8%
  • comprises approximately 8% of the company's existing net acreage in North Dakota
  • after closing, Enerplus to hold approximately 65,500 net acres in North Dakota
  • production from Enerplus' operated ND assets averaged 23,700 boe in 3Q16

Another Bakken Refinery? Brent Production Meltdown? -- December 13, 2016

MSNBC "Morning Joe": very, very positive on the Tillerson selection. 

Bakken News: be sure to check out The Bakken Magazine. Lots happening.

Where Have We Heard This Name Before?

New refinery in the Bakken play, 55 miles north of Noonan, North Dakota.
Quantum Energy Inc., a diversified energy development company attempting to build multiple refineries within the Bakken shale play, has closed on a land contract for a refinery site near Stoughton, Saskatchewan, Canada. Stoughton is roughly 55 miles north of Noonan, North Dakota.
A week after forming a Canadian subsidiary with Dominion Energy, Quantum was able to secure land for a 40,000 barrels per day refinery that would utilize crude sourced from the Bakken and Three Forks formation. The proposed facility will be located in the Viewfield production region and near a Crescent Point Energy gas capturing plant. According to Dominion Energy Processing Group, the entity formed by Quantum to led the construction and design of the facility, the plant will produce roughly 21,500 bpd of retail gasoline and 13,600 bpd of ultra-low sulfur diesel.
Back on November 3, 2014:
The Arizona company is planning to develop up to five refineries designed to produce diesel fuel from Bakken crude oil.
Quantum announced earlier this month that it had signed a two-year option agreement on a 260-acre refinery site in Stanley, N.D., a town of around 2,000 people and the county seat of Mountrail County about halfway between Minot and Williston.
In addition to the Stanley agreement, the company has signed option agreements for property in Baker and Fairview, towns about 100 miles apart on the Montana and North Dakota border.

Other News

JV team: ISIS (aka ISIL, IS, EIEIO) takes control of Syrian oil fields. Islamic State fighters have taken control of the Jahar and Jazl oil fields, as well as the al-Mohr area and the al-Mohr company.

Brent production meltdown? Norwegian Continental Shelf, 2017, could lose 12,000 jobs; Scotland notes risk of losing key workers in the North Sea without new investment.

Oil exploration spending may drop further next year. But does that mean production decreases?

Oil demand to outstrip supply next year on OPEC and non-OPEC cuts. Financial Times. Delta: 600,000 bopd.

Brent-WTI spread. YCharts here. Also here.

Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

Active Rigs4065181190182

RBN Energy: natural gas storage and gas-fired power key to increasing renewables. Interesting analysis.
The Western states continue to ramp up their renewable energy mandates—California and Oregon, for instance, plan to get at least 50% of their electricity from renewable sources, and Colorado has set a 30% requirement. Ironically, this renewable energy trend puts a spotlight on natural gas, whose at-the-ready supply will be needed to fuel the West’s increasing number of gas-fired power plants at a moment’s notice to offset the up-and-down output of solar facilities and wind farms. One way to help ensure natural gas availability is have gas storage capacity close at hand. Today we look at ongoing efforts to add tens of billions of cubic feet of natural gas storage in the Western U.S., primarily to help ensure the fueling of nearby gas-fired power plants that back up variable-output solar and wind.
The interconnectedness of the crude oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids (NGL) markets is a mantra of ours in the RBN blogosphere. Another joined-at-the-hip connection that gets less attention is the one between natural gas and renewable energy.
The gas/renewables link relates to the fact that solar and wind—the two renewable-energy sources whose development and use have been rising exponentially the past few years—produce power efficiently and without any fuel costs, but only intermittently (when the sun shines and the wind blows). While experience has given electric-grid operators an ever-improving ability to anticipate the ramping up and down of both solar and wind output, there will always be variability—surprises too—in how much power solar facilities and wind farm produce, as well as a need to replace renewable-energy drop-offs with power from other generation sources. As it turns out, modern gas-fired power plants—either “simple-cycle” combustion turbines (CTs) or “combined-cycle” plants—are the most flexible and most responsive in that their output can pretty much be dialed up or down on an as-needed basis.
But gas-fired power plants need gas to run, and sufficient pipeline gas supply (at the moment it’s needed) is not a given. Enter gas storage capacity, which in much of the rest of the country is used primarily to stockpile excess gas each spring through fall for winter-time consumption, but which also plays a year-round, day-to-day role in ensuring that regional pipeline networks stay balanced.

Sophia's New "Ray-Ban" Sunglasses

Sophia needed a new pair of sunglasses yesterday; the winter sun in north Texas can be quite brighta t 4:00 p.m. when she is getting out of Tutor Time.

At the mall, she saw the Ray-Ban Sunglasses kiosk and picker out a pair. $95.

Her mom thought not.

Off to Wal-Mart. $5.