Five New Permits; One Permit Canceled; One DUC Reported As Completed -- Halo Effect Presented -- September 6, 2024

Locator: 48546B.

WTI: $67.67.

Active rigs: 38.

Five new permits, #41106 - #41110, inclusive:

• Operator: Grayson Mill
• Field: Ragged Butte (McKenzie)
• Comments:
• Grayson Mill has permits for three Helling wells and two L And E wells, SESW 9-151-101,
• to be sited 484 FSL and between 1788 FWL and 138 FWL.

One permit canceled:

• 35228, Silver Hill Energy, Holmen E 159-93-17-5-4MBHX, Burke County;

One producing well (a DUC) reported as completed:

• 40401, 894, EOG, Blueberry 2917-06H, Mountrail County;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	7-2024	31	21153	21015	58580	8680	8552	128
BAKKEN	6-2024	1	188	106	1440	10	10	0

Well of interest:

• 17689, 1,269, EOG, Burke 20-29H, Stanley, t6/09; cum 452K 7/24; recent activity, note halo effect:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	7-2024	11	365	452	1112	246	82	67
BAKKEN	6-2024	2	0	0	375	20	0	4
BAKKEN	5-2024	14	1013	1150	98	773	563	100
BAKKEN	4-2024	30	3402	3407	137	2071	1575	192
BAKKEN	3-2024	31	3286	3347	379	1779	1281	184
BAKKEN	2-2024	27	3038	2910	275	1590	1157	170
BAKKEN	1-2024	31	2611	2613	48	1168	749	105
BAKKEN	12-2023	31	2917	3011	48	1063	669	80
BAKKEN	11-2023	30	2705	2561	17	988	603	82
BAKKEN	10-2023	31	3074	3335	57	1156	750	92
BAKKEN	9-2023	30	2999	3059	70	1056	663	93
BAKKEN	8-2023	31	3461	3212	195	1056	645	97
BAKKEN	7-2023	4	165	3	215	59	19	5
BAKKEN	6-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2023	1	0	0	41	2	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2023	11	213	227	3	203	89	8
BAKKEN	3-2023	31	660	675	10	623	283	26
BAKKEN	2-2023	28	620	610	8	543	259	0
BAKKEN	1-2023	31	641	638	102	630	305	23

Palantir , Dell Being Added To The S&P 500 -- September 6, 2024

Locator: 48545INV.

This is really cool. 

Sophia recommended some serious tax loss harvesting .... which I did -- some energy stocks and we used that cash to start a position in Palantir -- that was awhile ago. I had been watching Palantir for quite some time but it was some specific news that it felt right to start a position -- that was a while ago, not today. Whoo-hoo! Now this, today. The portfolio is gradually evolving.

Link here. This from twitter. Still looking for source. Evan is reporting it also.

Dell will also be added. 

Changes to the S&P 500. Link here. Some:

• stocks being added in: Palantir (PLTR), DELL and ERIE
• stocks being removed: American Airlines (AAL), ETSY, Bio-Rad (BIO)

**********************************
Disclaimer
Briefly Reminder 

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia.

Idle Rambling -- Nothing To See Here -- It's All Been Discussed Before -- September 6, 2024

Locator: 48544JOBS.

US Labor Force: 164.6 million was the all-time high (?). Link here.

Today's jobs report: payrolls expanded by 142,000 / 164,600,000 in August = 0.000862697 = 0.0086%.

Forecast (consensus): 161,000.

• 161,000 - 142,000 = 19,000
• 19,000 / 164,600,000 = 0.0001154313 = 0. 000154%

But what amazes me is that both the estimate and the actual have a precision of 1,000. 

The forecast was for 161,000. Not 160,000 or 162,000, but 161,000. Exactly, 161,000.

And the actual number came in at 142,000 which is obviously "rounded." 

But seriously -- this is what a gazillion analysts and talking heads were waiting for this Friday. LOL.

Are they obsessed? LOL.

 But wait! There's more. 

Up until today, I had only "the unemployment rate" reported. But today the analysts provided both "the unemployment rate" and "the real unemployment rate."

Say what? All this time, they've been keep the "real unemployment rate" a secret.  

And finally, earnings.

Those figures, 0.3% --> 0.4% -- neither reproducible or statistically significant, and for all we know the 0.3% figure was rounded from 0.34% and the 0.4% figure was rounded from 0.36% -- make the delta ... 0.02%, which rounded is 0000000 or flat or unchanged or meaningless.

By the way, that "real unemployment rate" (U6) went from 7.8% to 7.9%. OMG. Link here.

By the way, the unemployment rate I use is U1 -- the "real real unemployment rate." The most recent U1 rate, August, 2024, is 1.6, absolutely identical to what it was last month, July, 2024.

Just imagine. The US economy. U1 unemployment rate is 1.6%. And Trump says the economy is a mess.

****************************
What About In Schools; On Playgrounds?
Or On Gun Ranges?

It makes sense that guns are allowed in hospitals. After all, emergency medical care is "immediately" available. 

To "Code Blue," we can now add "Colt 45 in progress." 

It Looks Like The Judge Wants To Ensure That One Way Or Another This Senior Citizen Gets Taxpayer-Supported Federal Housing After January 20, 2024 -- September 6, 2024

Locator: 48543ARCHIVES.

Both options are gated communities.

There are so many story lines here. Wow.

Cramer's First Hour -- September 6, 2024

Locator: 48542INV.

Hess:

Jobs report: absolutely "Goldilocks." 

Cramer's first hour: a mix of fact, factoids, opinions from various sources -- often not cited -- while listening to Cramer's first hour on CNBC.  

A reminder: historically, the months of August and September are the worst months of the year for investors who hope to pay more for shares. 

Catching up:

I missed Cramer's first hour because we were having breakfast with Sophia -- Grandparents' Day at her school.

Headlines suggested talking heads were upset with the jobs report. LOL. I thought it was an absolute "Goldilocks" report. What more do investors want? "Jobs market" continues to suggest US economy is doing very, very well. Yes, I get it. Analysts have moved to "20" when estimating the likelihood of a recession -- i.e., JPow not sticking the "soft" landing. For perspective, a "15" is the likelihood of a recession in any given, "random" year. When asked the chance of a recession, one starts with "15" and then one adjusts from there. With the jobs report, analysts now opine that the risk of recession has risen ever so slightly. 

Buy, sell, or hold?

A stock picker’s  market?

Still fully invested. Sophia added to her broad-based, big cap ETF position mid-morning. Whoo-hoo!

Nvidia: thirty years from now, Sophia will not care whether "we" paid $102 / share or $150 / share. She will just be thrilled she has 10,000 shares of Nvidia. Only 9,990 shares to go, one share at a time. Seriously. Or, I guess she could buy Mullen Automotive.

Jobs: by the way, unless I'm misreading this, this is a great example of a story being written before the data was known -- write the story and then when the data is released, fill in the blanks. See this paragraph in the CNBC story with regard to the jobs report today. Nevermind, they fixed the story -- LOL. They caught their mistake but it corroborated my instincts that these stories are written well in advance of the data release. Note: the story was published at 8:30 a.m. EDT; the data was released at 8:30 a.m EDT.

Bored: at the moment, entirely bored with CNBC and the market. Sara et al can't quit talking about the Fed, rate cuts, the risk of a recession, etc. That's all "they" seem to talk about -- for the past year. I'll be traveling this weekend, so blogging will be kept to a minimum. Calories while traveling don’t count. Or at least they’re not counted. Good luck to all.

**********************************
Disclaimer
Briefly Reminder 

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia.

TGIF -- September 6, 2024

Locator: 48541B.

Jobs report: absolutely "Goldilocks." 

GDPNow: link here. Up slightly; back above 2% for 3Q24. The estimate is now at 2.1%.

Toyota: to cut 2026 global EV output plans by a third. Link here. Volvo has pushed back their EV plans "by a decade." Now, Toyota is looking beyond next year to delay EV transition. It just dawned on me, the bigger story here. Actually two big stories. More on this later. 

Toyota said in a statement there was no change to its intention to produce 1.5 million EVs per year by 2026 and 3.5 million by 2030. It said, however, that the figures were not targets but benchmarks for shareholders.

*********************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $69.43.

Sunday, September 8, 2024: 24 for the month; 152 for the quarter, 476 for the year
40327, conf, Petro-Hunt, State 144-98-16B-21-2H,
37578, conf, BR, Mathistad 2B MTFH,

Saturday, September 7, 2024: 22 for the month; 150 for the quarter, 474 for the year
40481, conf, CLR, Roadrunner 7-15H,
40328, conf, Petro-Hunt, State 144-98-16A-21-3H,
40149, conf, KODA Resources, Amber 1435-2BH,
40147, conf, KODA Resources, Amber 1402-3BH,

Friday, September 6, 2024: 18 for the month; 146 for the quarter, 470 for the year
40480, conf, CLR, Roadrunner 6-15H,
39543, conf, Grayson Mill Knight 35-26F 7TFH,
39542, conf, Grayson Mill, Knight 35-26F 6H,
39256, conf, Hess, SC-4WX-LW-153-98-3130H-1,
37579, conf, BR, Croff 2B MTFH,

RBN Energy: no easy answers t California gasoline price spikes. Archived.

Californians love their cars. Be it a lemon-yellow Lamborghini whizzing around Los Angeles freeways or a  Jeep cruising the Pacific Coast Highway, getting behind the wheel is not just about coming of age — it’s a life goal in the Golden State. California also typically has the costliest gasoline in the U.S. (except when  Hawaii holds that title), exacerbated by occasional price spikes and supply squeezes.

The state responded in 2023 with a new law — SB X1-2 — designed in part to increase gasoline price transparency and assess potential ways to ensure consistent and affordable supply. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll examine the California Energy Commission’s (CEC) first assessment of the law’s impact.