Saturday, September 24, 2022

I Still Maintain That "Our Current Problems" Can Be Traced Back To Biden Keystoning And Gaslighting America -- September 24, 2022

Link here.

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Random Update Of A BR Morgan Three Forks Section Line Well -- September 24, 2022

The usual disclaimers. This was done very quickly while watching NCAA football. I think I am now done with this one.

A section line well, still active and a steady Eddy with regard to performance, albeit not particularly remarkable:

Compared to the other three wells on this pad, this well has struggled. The production profile suggests BR has been trying to get this well going. 

Frack data:

  • Three Forks stimulated, 9/28/2015; 36 stages; 3.9 million lbs proppant (very small frack), but this is similar to #29803 with 36 stages, also, 4.2 million bls proppant (small frack) 
  • the geologist's report did not suggest any problem; the lateral was in the target zone for most of the lateral.
  • TD = 21,010; which was slightly longer than #29803
  • bottom line: nothing to explain why this well not as good  as the other three; simply the vagaries of the oil business?

Full production profile:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN7-202229114811888326692608089
BAKKEN6-2022219259055554631416965
BAKKEN5-202231118911858756287560388
BAKKEN4-20222310451037827483647790
BAKKEN3-20222111381130850458445320
BAKKEN2-202228948962935315930890
BAKKEN1-2022291166116682838163093651
BAKKEN12-20213114981513105143323492763
BAKKEN11-20213015271533106346004404122
BAKKEN10-20213118531801129549814800104
BAKKEN9-202194214466621365625718
BAKKEN8-202127614668485280827410
BAKKEN7-20213116881674166687668338351
BAKKEN6-202130191918731802773264391219
BAKKEN5-202131175418031458590847881043
BAKKEN4-20213017221681113242113804333
BAKKEN3-202131175316991332303029530
BAKKEN2-202121111244511135
BAKKEN1-20210000000
BAKKEN12-2020199134200
BAKKEN11-202010170000
BAKKEN10-20205286326253124112290
BAKKEN9-2020301453145912986084599812
BAKKEN8-202031194519401358649764200
BAKKEN7-20203121012211177856084944587
BAKKEN6-202030984475361301640
BAKKEN5-20203113128661141550454270
BAKKEN4-202030171317081227565738561727
BAKKEN3-20203117721751126249884239672
BAKKEN2-202023145614611145327720331187
BAKKEN1-2020201180121486035362989497
BAKKEN12-201931215121431387591358360
BAKKEN11-201930253225191494547434531947
BAKKEN10-20193126042594169056564873706
BAKKEN9-20193023882400175753964855467
BAKKEN8-20193126262646190649444123744
BAKKEN7-201931314730632178480026492074
BAKKEN6-2019222216245040
BAKKEN5-201900120000
BAKKEN4-2019105636294071073101434
BAKKEN3-20193132033281248154315084270
BAKKEN2-201928318232002575491348430
BAKKEN1-201931378737092934457724112089
BAKKEN12-20182927522766245039723179721
BAKKEN11-201830278427632726382437380
BAKKEN10-201831311332003653470246140
BAKKEN9-201830397337985453476846760
BAKKEN8-20181121117300
BAKKEN7-20180000000
BAKKEN6-201800620000
BAKKEN5-2018159891039435253424910
BAKKEN4-201830228422911081506449790
BAKKEN3-201831263325261344418240940
BAKKEN2-201872242121971891680
BAKKEN1-20181066019190
BAKKEN12-20173018851926965501649300
BAKKEN11-201730226522361084494448580
BAKKEN10-201731269826291327472946390
BAKKEN9-201752232771622352200
BAKKEN8-20172116241614784384437810
BAKKEN7-20173118901891985391838290
BAKKEN6-20173023352441992372036350
BAKKEN5-201731226923191505372536330
BAKKEN4-201730273426181329442443340
BAKKEN3-201731270526691495405039540
BAKKEN2-201788369453487587330
BAKKEN1-201728391038261690944793600
BAKKEN12-20163139333907146710300102080
BAKKEN11-20163042854282205813204131180
BAKKEN10-20163146154612221413320132310
BAKKEN9-20163049114913214013586135000
BAKKEN8-20163157795780229713907138190
BAKKEN7-20163170487074318712278121890
BAKKEN6-20162983348275281417327173130
BAKKEN5-20167294229201305580057970
BAKKEN4-20160000000
BAKKEN3-20160000000
BAKKEN2-201600360000
BAKKEN1-2016165954618228291337913200172
BAKKEN12-201512874261160012241098125
BAKKEN11-201519351435146802522305203

The graphics: 


The four wells on this pad, two run north, two run south:
  • 29805, see above. 802, BR, Morgan 14-21TFH ULW, t11/15; cum 160K 7/22; a section line well, four-section spacing.
  • 29867, 3,126, BR, Kirkland 14-21TFH ULW, t10/15; cum 714K 7/22; a section line well, four-section spacing;
  • 29804, 2,806, BR, Kirkland 14-21MBH, t11/15; cum 419K 7/22; a section line well, four-section spacing;
  • 29803, 2,325, BR, Morgan 14-21MBH, t11/15; cum 300K 7/22; a section line well, four-section spacing.
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What A Great Surprise! Movie Night With Vern Whitten! Get Out The Popcorn! September 24, 2022

Link here.

Mr Whitten says:

First, you'll fly over Fargo-Moorhead on a summer evening. 

Next, you'll cruise the Red River Valley coming from south of Casselton towards Fargo.

(If you look near the bottom of the video on the right, you'll see the airplane's shadow.) 

Finally, we're in Bismarck flying by the State Capitol down to the Missouri River. 

So, let's go. 

Of the three video clips, I think I enjoyed the Red River Valley from Casselton to Fargo the best. 

I did love the summer-evening "lighting" of Fargo-Moorhead. 

That "wide" Missouri River -- the Bismarck clip -- is breath-taking. Really amazing.

I'm sure Vern would love to hear from you. Drop him a line, thanking him for sharing his photos and videos of North Dakota and Minnesota.  

Vern Whitten Photography
www.vernwhittenphotography.com
(701) 261-7658

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Off The Net -- Parting Shot -- September 24, 2022

I assume readers have noticed that same thing I've noticed in grocery stores: there are still spot shortages of some items.

I don't foresee any major supply chain shortages that we saw a year ago, but these random sport shortages are concerning. 

Every time I go to Target to get an item I need (like bread or orange juice), I pick up something that I don't immediately need but would be severely inconvenienced with a spot shortage.

I'm also watching the price of eggs, now at their lowest prices in quite some time. I'm not wasting money on frivolous things like pumpkins. Paper products? Yeah, I would be prepared.

I'm also making sure that my automobile gasoline tanks don't drop below the half-way mark. Hurricane Ian won't impact energy infrastructure in the gulf but the oil and gas sector is so skittish about an environmental event, that "they" may take some infrastructure off line "just to be safe." 

Off the net -- going biking.

***********************
Central Market -- Southlake, Texas

Thirty-five minute ride. One way. Easy. Beautiful weather. 

I had forgotten how nice Central Market is. When one walks into the produce section, one is immediately reminded of Farmer's Market, west/central Los Angeles. I wonder if Central Market might not be nicer?

Just a thought.

Remember my problem finding anchovies earlier? Not a problem at Central Market. No less than six brands, but wow, three to four times as expensive as Amazon's. And I bet not much difference in taste. Also, octopus and squid, also in oil in tins. Very, very expensive.

Amazing how expensive fresh beef, fresh fish has become. I did not check the prices of chicken.

One can actually find orange juice slightly less expensive than at Target, but Target, for some reason, has really priced their orange juice on the high side. And then bring it down with "sales." 

The store is very, very, very busy. One out of ten visitors wear a Covid-19 mask. 

Family responsibilities soon, so back on my bike.

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What Changed? September 24, 2022

In 2022 The New Yorker was looking for the oil and gas industry to solve "the energy problem."

This reminds me of The New Yorker article in 2011:


Just a few years later, the oil and gas industry is seen by the US SecEnergy as a boogeyman / Frankenstein / environmental terrorist or worse.

And the US economy is in deep trouble.

Do the dots connect?

By the way, this is a very, very interesting story to explore, how the US went from 2011 to 2022. I don't know if I've ever explicitly explained how this happened but I've talked about it in bits and pieces over the years.

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Horizontal Drilling -- Natural Gas Pipeline Expansion From Watford City To Tioga -- September 24, 2022

This post began with a note from a reader. Thank you very much.  

This reminds me of The New Yorker article in 2011:


It also reminds "how much we lost" due to Covid, and how many years (a decade?) we will be paying for that lost year or two.

This story is important for many reasons, has several data points of note.

North Dakota gas plants.

Note, regarding the charg:

  • no increase in natural gas processing capacity, 2022 (this year) over 2021 (last year);
  • next year, 2023, should see an increase of 200 MMCFD
  • from 4,037 to 4,237, a 5% increase

The increase will be at ONEOK's new Demicks Lake III plant.

  • Demicks Lake I, in service, 2019: 200
  • Demicks Lake II, in service. 2020: 200
  • Demicks Lake III, in service, 2023: 200

Will need pipeline for takeaway from Demicks Lake III.

Enter, WBI Energy Transmission, link here:

  • Bakken Gas Pipeline Expansion project
  • origin: Demicks Lake III, Watford City, ND
  • terminus: Northern Border Pipeline interconnect, Tioga, ND --> midcontinent
  • 175,000 dt/d expansion of its pipeline system
  • in-service: November, 2023
  • $32.6 million
  • expansion of its existing Line Section 27 system
  • two 24-inch-diameter, 500-foot-long pipelines
  • two new compressor stations (?) 
    • if I'm reading this correctly, $33 million for a 1,000-foot expansion?

    From The Bismarck Tribune, November 18, 2021:

    Work is resuming in McKenzie County on a natural gas processing plant project delayed in 2020 by the coronavirus pandemic. 
    Oneok announced this week that it will complete the project known as Demicks Lake III, an expansion of the company's processing facilities near Watford City. 
    The company expects work at the site to wrap up during the first quarter of 2023. The new plant will have the capacity to handle 200 million cubic feet of gas per day. It will bring the company's total gas processing capacity across the Williston Basin to 1.9 billion cubic feet per day, which could accommodate about two-thirds of all gas produced in North Dakota. The project is expected to cost $140 million.

    I can't say for sure, but it sounds like this partnership / nexus, for three major projects:

    • Watford City
    • Tioga
    • Demicks Lake gas plants (I, II, III -- 2019, 2020, 2023)
    • under-the-water pipelines, setting records in the process
    • Michels
    • Oneok
    • MDU
    • WBI Energy, a subsidiary of MDU

    ************************************
    Most Recent Major Pipeline Expansion Project

    Link here.

    From the linked article, November 4, 2021:

    Michels completed a 15,426-foot horizontal directional drill (HDD) of a 24-inch pipe crossing of Lake Sakakawea on the Missouri River in North Dakota, extending the limits of trenchless construction.

    The crossing is part of a new pipeline being constructed from Tioga, North Dakota, to near Watford City, North Dakota.
    The HDD crossing of just less than 3 miles is one of the longest of its kind, surpassing by 3,174 feet a 20-inch HDD crossing Michels completed in the Bakken region in 2019. 
    HDD minimized disturbances to the area and provided a delivery outlet for previously untapped energy sources in both instances. Although the crossings were similar in location, length, and technique, each project included its own unique and awe-inspiring accomplishments. 
    Prior to pullback, the 15,426-foot pipeline was assembled by Michels Pipeline, Inc., into two sections–one of 426 feet and another of 15,000 feet. 
    When laydown space allows, long sections of pipe can be advantageous because they require fewer pull stoppages to weld pipe strings together. While stopping can generally be accomplished, resuming movement of pipe can be challenging, even with a specific and well-planned drilling fluid and lubrication program. Like the 2019 project, the recently completed project used the pilot hole intersect method and two custom-made drill rigs, each with more than 1-million pounds of push/pull capacity.

    Abbreviated disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. Full disclaimer at tabbed link.

    All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them    .

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    Well Count In North Dakota -- September 24, 2022

    Usual disclaimers. In addition, in one of the more recent years, I forget which one, I may have miscounted slightly, but it makes no material difference.

    Number of wells that came off the confidential list:

    Break/break

    From Lynn Helms, September, 2022:

    • well count;
      • with more three-mile laterals, it will mean fewer wells
      • NDIC has revised downward its projected total well count across the Bakken from 65,000 wells, down to 40,000 wells
      • currently 15,000 producing wells in the Bakken/Three Forks
      • currently 17,000 total producing wells in North Dakota
    • Tier 1: 
      • 80% drilled
      • future: EOR
      • currently three pilot projects: natural gas for EOR
      • CO2 for EOR will come eventually
    Helms said a multitude of other energy opportunities exist, which have the potential to attract even more industry to the state. 
    "We're talking about backing up wind farms with gas-fired electricity. We're talking about connecting ethanol plants to CO2 pipelines to bring that to the center and ultimately to the northwestern part of the state. We're talking about value-added natural gas, locally-mined frac sand, and critical minerals, even being mined in southwestern North Dakota," Helms said. 
    "On top of all of that, we're talking about data centers ... and companies like Rainbow Energy, which are putting together this whole synergistic program down there at Underwood ... it is an amazing concept."

    Back to well count.

    • back-of-the envelope
    • ultimately 40,000 Bakken wells
    • currently 15,000 actively producing Bakken wells
    • at height of activity, 3,000 wells per year
    • now, going forward, 500 wells per year
    • 25,000 new wells / 500 wells per year = 50 years of Bakken drilling
    • originally, at the time of the Bakken boom, back in 2007 timeframe, drilling activity could continue to 2100
    • 2022 +50 = 2075
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    Week 38: September 18, 2022 -- September 24, 2022.

    Top Stories

    Top story: 
    • Putin says he's not bluffing about going nuclear.
    • US says response would be horrific.
    Javier Blas:

    Focus on fracking: most recent edition. Price of oil at 8-month low.

    Top story of the week:

    • US equity market plunges; "Fed" raises rates 75 basis points; everyone expected that
    • guidance was the reason for the market's sell-off; recession likely; rates higher for longer.

    Top international energy story:

    • Brussels shuts down nuclear reactor in middle of energy crisis

    Top national non-energy story:

    • Putin  mobilizes 300,000 conscripts

    Top national energy story:

    • WTI in free-fall; drops below $80.
      • interestingly, gasoline still expensive

    Top North Dakota non-energy story:

    Top North Dakota energy story    :

    • CLR free cash flow could hit $3.5 billion for CY2022; would set record (barely)

    Geoff Simon's top North Dakota energy stories:

    Bakken economy:

    Commentary:

    Entertainment:

    • NFL:KC Chiefs, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, SF 49ers all favored. All lose.
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    Xi? September 24, 2023

    Category 3. Artemis.

    Sylvester Stallone.

    Why is this thought wrong by some? North Dakota should do the same.

    On the same page.

    A bridge too far?

    This speaks volumes. 

    For a single wind turbine. More.

    Bitcoin will never be mined in Belgium.

    Was the US economy doing better during the pandemic?

    And that’s it for today.

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