Social Security -- A Random Note -- September 12, 2025

Locator: 49095SOCIALSECURITY.

An aside: there was a report earlier today that social security payments might rise as much as 2.8% next year. 

Monthly social security checks: average. 

Link here.

Where do you sit?

An eye-opening 56% of respondents in the 2025 Nationwide Retirement Institute's Social Security Survey say they wouldn't survive financially if they missed half of a Social Security payment.

An eye-opening 56% of respondents in the 2025 Nationwide Retirement Institute's Social Security Survey say they wouldn't survive financially if they missed half of a Social Security payment. [Not a full month, but one-half of one SS payment. One-half.]

So what are these benefits, exactly? Well, the overall average monthly Social Security benefit for retirees was $2,007 as of July — about $24,000 per year. Below are average monthly Social Security benefits for those who are 65 or other ages, as of the end of last year.

At the high end:

There is a maximum monthly Social Security retirement benefit, which was $5,108 for 2025 for those who delayed claiming until age 70. This top amount requires you to have earned the maximum taxable income for at least 35 years and to have also waited until age 70 to claim benefits, the age at which delayed retirement credits no longer increase your benefit amount.

Graphic Of The Day -- September 12, 2025

Locator: 49094ARCHIVES.

Link here.

All Of A Sudden, Governor Newsom .... But Without Refineries, More Oil Isn't Going To Make Much Of A Difference -- September 12, 2025

Locator: 49093CALIFORNIA.

This was reported yesterday -- I don't recall if I posted it or not -- but here's the summary:

Governor Gavin Newsom has struck a deal with legislative leaders and the oil industry to allow for more drilling in Kern County by streamlining environmental reviews, with the aim of stabilizing gas prices. This compromise includes provisions that will waive portions of California's landmark environmental law for new oil wells in Kern County, alongside measures to address the closure of refineries. The legislation is intended to boost local oil production, balancing the state's energy needs with the ongoing shift toward renewable energy.

I believe that is the story to which Giovanni Staunovo is referring here, link here. Apparently the California environmental folks aren't happy.

XOM: Says It Has Developed A New Form Of Graphite Which Boosts EV Battery Life -- September 12, 2025

Locator: 49092EV.

Tag: XOM; new form of graphite, EV battery.

Link here.

The story, of course, is accurate as far as we know, but checking with ChatGPT, at this point, the announcement doesn't amount to much. Even if it works, it's unlikely to have any material effect on the EV industry for years.

The Year The Music Died -- September 12, 2025

Locator: 49091EVS.

1. This was from December 9, 2024. Link here. This has/had been previously reported -- just a reminder of the "partnership" established between Rivian and Volkswagen, for $5.8 billion. It's important to note that this is just for Rivian's software and related work, not for the chassis.

2. Now this, from Bloomberg today. Link here.

Again, this only affects the VW EV Golf, not the relationship between VW and Rivian, as far as I know, and the launch date delay is only "temporary." But, wow, it certainly has to concern Rivian, one would think.

Rivian ticker today:

Lucid ticker today:

Quick Connects -- Alison Ritter -- September 12, 2025

Locator: 49090B.

The links:

• Applied Digital set to break ground on $3B data center in Harwood this month -- KX News

• Company selected to lay groundwork for nuclear in North Dakota -- North Dakota Monitor

• North Dakota's emerging lithium industry grows with new funds, partnership -- KX News

• Republicans move to lift North Dakota drilling and mining restrictions -- Bismarck Tribune

• 'Either you're growing or you're dying': North Dakota mayor sees AI project as rural lifeline -- InForum

• North Dakota judge won't halt Netherlands lawsuit filed against DAPL developer -- North Dakota Monitor

• Grid operator says North Dakota would benefit from power line plan challenged by state -- Bismarck Tribune

• North Dakota and Minnesota U.S. attorney nominees caught up in Senate impasse -- Dickinson Press

• Delegation urges Trump to grant disaster declaration request; second move this summer -- Bismarck Tribune

• Damage from tree growth around power line led to 2024 wildfire on Fort Berthold -- Bismarck Tribune

• North Dakota is at epicenter of US nuclear overhaul as Sentinel replaces Minuteman -- KFYR - TV

• Mosaic of Cultures set for November; second edition to be held at Divide County High School -- The Journal

• Dickinson and Stark County officials discuss 1% public safety sales tax proposal -- Dickinson Press

• Pherrin Township repairs Williston's infamous "Road of Shame,'' many vehicles got stuck -- KFYR-TV

• Initiative aims to preserve North Dakota newspapers; 3 counties lack local paper -- North Dakota Monitor

• Third Street Northeast bridge to close temporarily to all vehicle traffic beginning Sept. 16 -- Minot Daily News

• City leaders seek to get new homes built at Williston Square before Sloulin opens doors -- KFYR - TV

• 'It's an uplift in morale,' $3.1 million renovation to Killdeer Elementary is boosting spirits. -- Dickinson Press

• North Dakota teacher says they can't shy away from tough artificial intelligence questions -- KNOX Radio

• High schoolers learn about potential majors and careers at Minot State's Futurepalooza -- KFYR - TV

• Enrollment for the Minot Public School District slightly down by 225 students this year -- KFYR - TV

• NDSU President Cook announces full scholarships in AI in State of the University address -- InForum

• Sloulin Elementary School set to open in 2026: A new chapter for education in Williston -- Livability Williston

• CTE shaping future workforce; students get hands-on learning, real-world career prep -- Grand Forks Herald

• North Dakota university research could see 'devastating' cuts, officials warn -- North Dakota Monitor

• IEA drafts report admitting that oil and gas demand are set to continue growing for decades -- Oil Price

• EIA short term outlook projects US power consumption to reach record high in 2025 and 2026 -- Reuters

• AI data centers could keep us dependent on natural gas for decades to come -- MIT Technology Review

• Powering data center boom with wasted natural gas could support energy security -- Energy Intelligence

• What you need to know from our look at the good, the bad, and the whoa of AI. -- Yale Climate Connections

• Natural gas is not a bridge to tomorrow. It is the superhighway of the future. -- RealClearEnergy

• Bipartisan agreement is rare; energy abundance is the new American consensus -- RealClearEnergy

• Burgum: risk of losing global AI race is a bigger 'existential threat' than climate change -- E&E News

• Mismanagement of large solar plant made Spain's grid more vulnerable on blackout day -- Reuters

• California rolling blackouts have begun, largely due to its reliance on "green energy" -- National Review

• Southeast Asian countries are sticking with coal to power their growing economies -- CO2 Coalition

• As climate lawsuits escalate, judges are increasingly rejecting alarmists' legal antics -- RealClearEnergy

• Chinese-funded research is now being used to attack Trump climate policy -- Washington Examiner

• CBS News discloses working with climate advocacy group for extreme weather reporting -- Fox News

Breaking: US EPA Will Quit Collecting "CO2 Emissions" Information At All Energy Production Sources, Including Coal Plants And Crude Oil-Related Activities -- September 12, 2025

Locator: 49089B.

EPA: link to The New York Times. Amazing. Does President Trump ever sleep? Does he ever quit thinking about what he can do to drive Greta nuts? LOL. 

The iPhone 17 Air: this is not Apple's best iPhone but this is the phone Tim Cook is using because of the "form factor."

**************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $62.60.

Active rigs: 35.

Four new permits, #42303 - #42306, inclusive:

• Operators: Petro-Hunt (2); EOG (2)
• Fields: Crooked Creek (Dunn); Little Knife (Dunn); Clarks Creek (McKenzie).
• Comments:
• Petro-Hunt has permits for two wells, lot 2, section 5-143-97, a John Williams well and an Edgar Lea Weems well, 
• to be sited 380 / 392 FNL and 1862 / 1931 FEL;
• EOG has permits for two Hawkeye wells, lot 5, section 12-152-95, 
• to be sited 702 / 647 FSL and 901 / 844 FWL.

Two permits were reinstated:

• Oasis, Pederson permits, #35309 ad #35400, Banks, McKenzie County.

Corn: Update -- September 12, 2025

Locator: 49088CORN.

Updates

September 14, 2025: corn futures -- 

September 14, 2025: from Susan Stroud on US farming -- corn -- acres -- link here.

Later, 10:03 p.m. CT: things just get curiouser and curiouser. This may just be the most fascinating story this year with regard to agriculture. Posted late this afternoon, after I had already spent some time on this issue. Link here.

Original Post

See this post where this interest all began.  

The entire administration is on same page when it comes to renewable energy. 

With this interesting exception: the administration will protect US corn farmers in red states, LOL: 

Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) Volumes: The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) proposed significant increases in biofuel blending requirements for 2026 and 2027. The total biofuel blending volumes are set to rise to 24.02 billion gallons in 2026 and 24.46 billion gallons in 2027, up from 22.33 billion gallons in 2025.

A significant component of this proposal is a boost in biomass-based diesel mandates, with a quota of 7.12 billion Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs) for 2026, corresponding to approximately 5.61 billion gallons of actual fuel blending. This increase aims to bolster domestic biofuel production by discouraging imports and aligning RIN generation with domestic sourcing.

Link here.

I did not complete my thoughts on this very, very long post, but if one reads this post closely, one can almost guess how the corn farmers are going to do under the Trump administration. This holds a huge risk for the GOP in the red states going forward. 

Bottom line: for folks who don't read to the end of this post or who are unable to connect the dots: the bottom line is that the US farmer plants way more acres in corn than it needs. However, that could be good news for those who enjoy beef steaks. Again, dots may be hard to connect. 

Connecting the dots: if you still don't get it, the US consumer only drives about 60 million acres of planted corn if ethanol goes away. The US farmer is planting about 100 million acres of corn. The most recent planting season was planned / planted / harvested before Trump's first term.

If I can see this, I'm sure Doug Burgum, Chris Wright, and Brooke Rollins can see this.

Link here.

Big question: how can this be?

• that huge jump in 2006?
• that huge jump from 1930 (110 million acres) to that huge low in 1985 (60 million acres) to this year's current high (back to almost 100 million acres)?

Answer: almost entirely due to "Farm Policies" coming out of Washington, DC. 

When did US government start providing incentives to farmers to produce more ethanol from corn, what year?

The US government first started providing incentives for ethanol production in 1978 to encourage the use of alternative fuels following the 1973 oil crisis. These early incentives included a tax exemption on gasoline blended with ethanol and a tax credit for ethanol use. While these initial efforts aimed to diversify fuel sources, the policy landscape for ethanol, particularly corn-based ethanol, evolved significantly, with later legislation like the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) and the Volumetric Ethanol Excise Tax Credit (VEETC) in the 2000s expanding and solidifying federal support for its production.

ChatGPT prompt:

US corn: Scott Irwin over on "X"  (https://x.com/ScottIrwinUI/status/1966537718701142136) has a graph on "US Planted Acreage For Corn, 1926 - 2025" -- how can that be -- a jump in 60 million acres planted as recently as 1986 and now US farmers planting almost 100 acres?

ChatGPT reply:

The “big jump” in 1986 wasn’t 60 million new acres suddenly appearing — it was about a 20 million acre rise, mostly due to government program changes and market signals. 

Today’s ~97 million acres fits right in line with historical highs, not an outlier. (That's not what the graph showed, but we will let that go.)

Why ~ 100 million acres today is not "unprecedented."

• Historically, corn acreage peaked at over 113 million acres in 1932 (the Depression years, when farmers grew all they could).

• The modern range has generally been 80–95 million acres, with a high of 97.3 million in 2012 and again in 2025.

• So today’s ~97 million acres is high, but not unheard of in the long-term record.

This is the real culprit: the 1980s spike

• U.S. corn acreage really did jump in the 1980s. In 1986, USDA reports about 105 million acres planted, compared with roughly 80–85 million acres in the early 1980s. This was tied to policy shifts (end of the “set-aside” programs, changes in the Farm Bill) and farmer responses to market incentives.

My Imaginary Friend Has A Lot Of Other Friends -- September 12, 2025

Locator: 49095CHAT.

Link here.

My Favorite Chart -- September 12, 2025

Locator: 49094MMF.

Breaking: released after I posted the blog below, link here. The delta was $30 billion from last week to this week:

My favorite chart. Except for the period during / immediately following the Covid-19 lock down, has there ever been a time when there was a significant (and lasting) drop in the amount of money held in MMFs? 

See background.

Another Not-Ready-For-Prime-Time Note -- This Time, The MMF "Wall Of Cash" -- September 12, 2025

Locator: 49093MMF.

My favorite chart.

Question

Later, 2:37 p.m. CT: has there ever been a time when there was a significant (and lasting) drop in the amount of money held in MMFs? Link here.

Update

September 26, 2025: MMF increases by $31 billion in most recent weekly data update. Link here.

Later, 2:16 p.m. CT: read the original post first, before reading this update. This is what I think will happen if the Fed cuts 100 basis points before the end of 2025 and and all else remains unchanged (i.e., no major geo-political news issues or major economic changes affecting the mindset of investors):

• who holds that $7 million in MMFs: upper income folks; investors; folks who are not living beyond their means; folks who have a positive cash flow and able to put money into savings/investing; 
• for those folks who hold $7 million MMFs, how do they feel, emotionally? Overall they feel "relatively rich" or "very well off." They may not like the headline but when they do the math they will realize there is not a big difference between 3% and 4% when it comes to a Fed cut or a MMF;
• 90% of Americans are financially illiterate and won't change their investment habits
  
• what will these "very well-off folks" do based on how they feel? They will continue to put money into their savings / investing accounts even as they buy more stuff; 
• why will they do that, put more money into savings/investing? because that's what they do! LOL. I didn't say they would necessarily put more more into savings/investing, I just say they will continue to add money to their savings / investment accounts because that's what they do.
  

More could be said but I doubt anyone reads past this line.

Original Post

A reader sent me the link to this article:

My "not-ready-for-prime-time-reply":

Most important bullet in that summary:

But Wall Street’s “wall of cash” theory, which contends lower interest rates will lead to a flood of cash into stocks and drive a new rally, has been debunked many times.

On another note, I don't know how anyone can see anything negative about the "wall of cash." But that's the nature of CNBC, ZeroHedge, others with regard to scare headlines. Two exceptions at CNBC: Scott Wapner and Jim Cramer.

But having said that, one can use that article to try to figure out where to place money in equities.

Finally, I'll bet that a year from now there is still $7 trillion in money market funds +/- 10%.

So, let me ask my imaginary friend, ChatGPT.

ChatGPT prompt:

Investing: "Wall Street’s “wall of cash” theory, which contends lower interest rates will lead to a flood of cash into stocks and drive a new rally, has been debunked many times." Is there any historical evidence since 1951 to corroborate this "theory"?

ChatGPT reply:

Since 1951, there’s no consistent historical evidence that lower interest rates alone unleash a “wall of cash” into stocks.

• Sometimes lower rates coincide with bull markets (1980s, post-2010).

• Other times they coincide with bear markets (2000–2002, 2008).

• The decisive factor is whether investors believe growth and profits will rise.

My imaginary friend and I are on the same page of music. LOL.

TSMC: August Revenue -- $11 Billion In One Month

Locator: 49092TSMC.

Updates

September 14, 2025: TSMC's foundry share continues to increase. The moat widens. Link here. Beth.

Original Post

Link here.

Annualized: $11 x 12 = $132 billion.

Compare with others. At $132 billion, TSMC might not be among the top 25 American companies by revenue.

Back to TSMC, annual revenue:

• 2024: $88 billion
• 2023: $70 billion

The Paramount Skydance Warner Bros Discovery Is A Huge Story -- It May Be Bigger Than Folks Realize -- September 12, 2025

Locator: 49091ELLISON.

Name the richest man in the universe that is an unswerving supporter and very close friend of President Trump?

Yes, Larry Ellison. 

If the acquisition goes through, CNN becomes a property of the Ellison family.

Let that sink in.

CNN is part of the Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) universe, which was formed in 2022 when Discovery merged with AT&T's WarnerMedia business, which included CNN. However, in mid-2025, WBD announced plans to split into two companies, with CNN slated to be part of the new Discovery Global entity, separate from the film and streaming assets.

Does the Ellison family have to act quickly to get CNN?

But besides the CNN story, there's a whole lot more. You just have to love Larry Ellison uncanny knack for seeing potential.

Media -- It's All About Sports Right Now -- Track And Field Championships Tokyo 2025 -- NBC -- September 12, 2025

Locator: 49090SPORTS.

Link here.

NBC Sports will carry the World Athletics Championships Tokyo 2025 for viewers in the United States, with coverage also available on the Peacock streaming service. The competition, which runs from September 13-21, will also have events on CNBC and USA Network.

Apple Today -- Are We Going To See A Super-Cycle? September 12, 2025

Locator: 49089AAPL.

Updates

September 14, 2025: along with the four models introduced September 9, 2025, Apple may introduce an iPhone 17e, the successor to the iPhone 16e; could launch around March, 2025, with same A19 chip as the iPhone 17. 

The iPhone 16e is still available for $599 with 128GB standard. The 256GB model adds another $100 or starting at $699. The new iPhone 17 starts at $799 with 256 GB. The iPhone Air starts at $999. The Pro and Pro Max start at $1099 and $1199 respectively. Over 24 months, the difference in monthly price is $33 /month to $50 / month. Might the 17e start at $699 -- $100 more than what it replaced but still the least expensive new iPhone, monthly: $29/month.

Later, 3:38 p.m. CT: ChatGPT's take --

Putting it all together:

• I think it’s plausible that Apple hits ~7–10% growth in iPhone revenue in the 2025-2026 cycle if the form factor changes (like the Air model), pricing strategy, and AI hype all combine well.

• If those things lag, then the more conservative ~5% is probably more realistic.

• A true “supercycle” at 15%+ seems possible in a best-case scenario but is less likely unless there’s something very unexpected (a breakthrough feature, dramatic improvements in AI, or a big upgrade push in emerging markets).

Later, 3:22 p.m. CT: Gene Munster on CNBC --

• Gene Munster defines super-cycle as "a sales increase" of 15%
• earlier estimate from "Wall Street" for the previous cycle, 2024 - 2025: 2%
• actual estimate, now, from Wall Street" for the current cycle, 2024 - 2025: 5%
• Gene Munster's estimate for the next cycle, the iPhone 17 cycle, 2025 - 2026: 10%

Later, 12:31 p.m. CT: New models are selling out: the iPhone 17 Pro Max sold out very quickly after the September 9, 2025 announcement, with delivery times for some customers slipping to 7-10 business days. Note: the Pro Max is the most expensive iPhone model. 

Apple's online store also experienced a significant increase in traffic, leading to brief outages for all four new models.

Later, 12:09 p.m. CT: if we do, in fact, see a super-cycle with regard to the iPhone 17 it will speak volumes about the anxiety of those folks talking about Apple and AI. And it will vindicate Tim Cook's seemingly "conservative" stance on AI. I think it will be absolutely fascinating. See below about Apple super-cycles.

Later, 12:01 p.m. CT: the orange Apple 17 Pro Max is already sold out! The Pro Max is the most expensive iPhone right now! Amazing. Link here. Is this to "honor" the "orange man"? MAGA.

Original Post

Why is Apple up today? FDA approves the hypertension feature on the Apple Watch. That was fast!

Apple: 

The iPhone 17 AIR is going to fly off the shelves. Huge, huge Christmas gift. This could be the first time we start to see folks have two iPhones.

It's easy to see why 500 carriers worldwide support this innovation! Wow!

The iPhone 17 Air uses a digital, eSIM (embedded SIM) instead of a physical SIM card, allowing you to activate a cellular plan by downloading carrier profiles to the phone digitally. This technology, supported by over 500 carriers globally, offers greater convenience for managing plans, enhanced security as it can't be physically removed, and saves internal space to enable a thinner, lighter design for the device.

D.A. Davidson downgraded AAPL yesterday. Wow!

This may just be a super-cycle for Apple.

An "Apple supercycle" refers to an extended period of significantly higher iPhone sales driven by a major, new technology that encourages a large number of consumers to upgrade their devices, such as the arrival of 5G phones in 2020 and the anticipated launch of Apple Intelligence in 2024/2025. These cycles create a surge in unit sales and revenue for Apple as consumers update to the next-generation product.

**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

Briefly:

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken.
  
• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  
• If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution.
• I've now added Broadcom to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom.
• Longer version here.   

Sold Off By MDU Years Ago -- Wow -- Exhibit A: Why I No Longer Invest In MDU -- September 12, 2025

Locator: 49088MDU.

Largest publicly traded company in North Dakota: Knife River. Ticker.

• 2023, when it went public, shares sold for $23
• today, $79
• high: $109, January 17, 2025

Link here. And, here, for social media comments.

Knife River Corporation, headquartered in Bismarck, North Dakota, is the largest publicly traded company based in the state. The company is a leading producer of construction materials, including aggregates, ready-mix concrete, and asphalt, and also provides related contracting services. After a spin-off from MDU Resources in 2023, Knife River has become an independent, publicly traded company listed on the New York Stock Exchange.

**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

Briefly:

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken.
  
• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  
• If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution.
• I've now added Broadcom to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom.
• Longer version here.  

 

Cramer's First Hour -- September 12, 2025

Locator: 49087INVESTING.

Updates

Later, 12:19 p.m. CT: Micron hits a 52-week high.

Original Post

Cramer's first hour:

• All about Corning today? 
• Cramer meets Tim Cook in Harrodsburg, Kentucky! Exclusive by CNBC.
• with all the news going on in the investing world, David Faber is absolutely fascinated with the Ellisons, Paramount Skydance, and Warner Bros Discovery.  
• Cramer has so much to offer, and David Faber spends first 30 minutes of Cramer's first hour on Paramount -- wow, it gets tedious. 
  
• again, CNBC seems to concentrate on about 20 stocks, day-in, day-out
• second company after Corning, Apple that Cramer mentions: Micron.
• back to Corning: what most jumped out at me: the factory has no humans working in it; the Corning CEO, Tim Cook, and Jim Cramer live -- with not one human working in this factory. oh, there I just saw one human way in the background
• mentions Ceramic Shield; glass front and back; currently iPhone Air only but eventually all iPhones; simply waiting for Corning being able to catch up -- now, we're starting to see a few humans walking aimlessly around the facility
• Corning up huge in early trading: up almost 3%
• Faber mentions in passing: Trump's ICE raid on Hyundai factory in Georgia
• I have no problem with that ICE raid
• there are legal ways to high legal workers, including foreign workers, to work in these facilities
• take the "opposing" view -- would South Korea have allowed / looked the other way if 500 Americans were illegally working in South Korea; what about China? what about Germany?
•  now, incredibly, David Faber now goes back to the Paramount deal. Wow, he is obsessed with this one deal; "Cramer's First Hour" devoted almost entirely to Paramount when Cramer was filming an exclusive with Tim Cook (Apple) and Corning. 
• again, CNBC will do anything to take Apple out of the picture
• finally, CNBC closes Cramer's first hour with Jim Cramer and Tim Cook

Apple's "Ceramic Shield":

Apple's "Ceramic Shield" is a toughened glass-ceramic material, first introduced on the iPhone 12, that is embedded with ceramic nanocrystals to create a harder, more durable surface with significantly better drop performance than previous iPhones. The small size of these crystals, which are smaller than the wavelength of light, maintains the material's transparency while enhancing its structural integrity to resist cracks and scratches.

Absolutely not expected this morning. The Cramer effect?

Now, we move to the Eisen Hour: first up -- Jeremy Siegel. Wisdom Tree / Wharton School of Business. Remains bullish. 

Rick Santelli: economic numbers -- consumer sentiment -- down a bit. No one care.

Holy mackerel: SCCO up another $1.75.

I have to laugh: some talking heads suggest a cut of 50 basis points will scare the market. Are you kidding me?!?! 

The market would love a 50-basis point cut. In fact, it's very possible, anything less than a 50-basis point cut and the market will plummet. "Everybody" has been calling for a 50-basis point cut for the past year. Later: this meme, that the 50-basis-point cut would scare the market was repeated by a talking head on the "Halftime Report" on CNBC was reiterated. LOL. The professionals might think its scary but the mom-and-pop retail investor would love it. Having said that, data (from ChatGPT) suggests we're not going to see consecutive 50-basis-point cuts, but a 50-basis-point-cut next week is possible but getting less and less likely with each passing day. You know that Lisa Cook will vote against a cut just to piss off Trump. LOL.

Holy mackerel! AAPL just popped $2.50. Completely unexpected. Comes on heels of Apple-Tim-Cook-Jim-Cramer segment on first segment. This jump despite markets being negative / flat.

Eisen Hour continues:

• now, Faber brings up Paramount again, gets tedious.
• ten points from 6,600 at the S&P.

David Faber: back to the Ellisons, Paramount and WBD. Wow, for CNBC today, it's all about Paramount. WBD recently sold for a little as $6. Currently, $18 with lots of hype. Whispered price for Ellisons to pay for WBD: low- to mid-20s. Wow. At current price, PSKY market cap about $8 billion; WBD: about $44 billion. Ellison is big friend of Trump and vice versa. 

Apple now jumps $4.00! Completely unexpected. Early read on iPhone pre-orders though there may be setbacks in China. Folks have to realize how bullish this is; the "setbacks" in China absolutely necessary. Counterintuitive but I'm right on this.

Most obnoxious commercial now airing on CNBC: public.com. I enjoyed the GoDaddy commercials for awhile but now they've become overbearing.

NASDAQ hits a new record high!

**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

Briefly:

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken.
  
• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  
• If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution.
• I've now added Broadcom to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom.
• Longer version here.  

Cramer Reporting From Corning's Kentucky Factory -- September 12, 2025

Locator: 49086B.

Breaking: some reports that the "Kirk shooter" has been captured; not confirmed; far two previous "people of interest" interviewed and released. Apparently confirmed. Link here. FBI / Kash Patel --kudos. Yes, Utah has the death penalty. And Utah was the first state to bring back the death penalty after the moratorium.

Add Kash Patel to Tier 1:

WTI: up almost 2% today; up $1.24; trading at $63.61.

Clean hydrogen: IEA slashes clean hydrogen production forecast. Link here.

Oracle's: poor-man's Palantir. LOL. Pointed out on the blog some time ago. From Beth yesterday.

Cramer's first hour:

• All about Corning today? 
• Cramer meets Tim Cook in Harrodsburg, Kentucky! Exclusive by CNBC.
• with all the news going on in the investing world, David Faber is absolutely fascinated with the Ellisons, Paramount Skydance, and Warner Bros Discovery.  
• Cramer has so much to offer, and David Faber spends first 30 minutes of Cramer's first hour on Paramount -- wow, it gets tedious. 
  
• again, CNBC seems to concentrate on about 20 stocks, day-in, day-out
• second company after Corning, Apple that Cramer mentions: Micron.
• back to Corning: what most jumped out at me: the factory has no humans working in it; the Corning CEO, Tim Cook, and Jim Cramer live -- with not one human working in this factory. oh, there I just saw one human way in the background
• mentions Ceramic Shield; glass front and back; currently iPhone Air only but eventually all iPhones; simply waiting for Corning being able to catch up -- now, we're starting to see a few humans walking aimlessly around the facility
• Corning up huge in early trading: up almost 3%
  

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $63.61.

New wells:

• Sunday, September 14, 2025: 22 for the month, 115 for the quarter, 555 for the year,
• 39741, conf, Grayson Mill, Darlene 13-24F 4H,
• Saturday, September 13, 2025: 21 for the month, 114 for the quarter, 554 for the year,
• 41518, conf, MRO, Patton 44-12H,
• Friday, September 12, 2025: 20 for the month, 113 for the quarter, 553 for the year,
• 41519, conf, MRO, Partridge 41-13H,
• 40691, conf, Petro-Hunt, Wollan Creek 152-96-34D-27-2H,
• 40359, conf, Hess, BL-Davidson-155-96-0211H-9,
• 39742, conf, Grayson Mill, Darlene 13-24F 5TFH,

RBN Energy: NGL markets relying on the Permian ask, what if crude production is peaking?

OPEC+ is ramping up production, WTI is hanging below $65/bbl, and Permian crude oil production growth has slowed to a crawl, raising the question of whether oil output in the U.S.’s #1 shale play might, in fact, be peaking. That’s making some folks on the NGL side of things a little skittish. They’re wondering what a leveling off — or an outright decline — in Permian crude production would mean for associated gas and the volumes of Y-grade being piped to Mont Belvieu and other fractionation hubs. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss a new model that forecasts Permian NGL production under a variety of scenarios. 

The Shale Revolution initiated a golden age for U.S. NGLs. Sure, domestic crude oil production has increased by more than 160% since 2008 and natural gas output has nearly doubled, but the volume of mixed NGLs (aka Y-grade) produced at U.S. gas processing plants has quadrupled, from 1.8 MMb/d 17 years ago to 7.3 MMb/d today. And that massive gain in NGL production spurred an unprecedented buildout in NGL-related infrastructure — processing plants, of course, but also Y-grade pipelines, salt-cavern storage capacity, fractionators and NGL export terminals. (See our Drill Down Report on this topic for a summary and our recent Don’t Stop blog series and weekly NATGAS Permian report for updates.)

Here’s another important fact: The Permian is the undisputed king of NGL production, accounting for more than 40% (or about 3 MMb/d; blue layer in left graph in Figure 1 below) of the total NGL volumes produced in the U.S. Not only does crude-oil-focused drilling in West Texas and southeastern New Mexico generate vast amounts of NGL-saturated associated gas, but over time the Permian’s gas-to-oil ratio (GOR) has been increasing (middle graph). And so has the Permian’s gallons-per-Mcf (GPM) number, which measures the gallons of mixed NGLs entrained with each thousand cubic feet of associated gas emerging from wells there (right graph).

Figure 1. Permian NGL Production, Gas-to-Oil Ratio and Gallons-per-Mcf. Source: RBN

As you would expect, a wide range of market players are counting on continued growth in Permian NGL production, including the owners and operators of gas processing plants, NGL pipelines, fractionators, and ethane and LPG export terminals, many of which continue to make big-dollar investments in new infrastructure. And, as we at RBN know firsthand, some of these same companies have been expressing concern that the production growth they’ve been banking on may be undermined by less favorable WTI pricing and a prospective slowdown in Permian drilling-and-completion activity.