Sunday, May 18, 2025

GM And California EVs -- May 18, 2025

Locator: 48653EVS.

Link here.

This will be fascinating. When Biden was in office, GM was doing everything it could to support Biden, California, Newsom, and EVs. 

According to AI, when asked, "GM CEO Barra position on EVs":

Broad Portfolio:
GM aims to offer a broad portfolio of EVs to meet diverse consumer needs, with the goal of being fully electric by 2035.

By the way, on another note, why is Ford unwilling to move Mustang Mach-e manufacturing to the US? The answer is all about cash burn. I still find it amazing that the graph at that link is almost impossible to find elsewhere.

Posted by at
Labels: , , ,

India -- May 18, 2025

Locator: 48652INDIA.

Needs more LNG: link here.

EVs: a "dud" in India. Link here.

Posted by at

Schooling Nancy Pelosi And Hunter Biden -- How "It's" Done -- Most Anticipated Washington, DC, Black Tie Event This Next Week, Perhaps This Year -- May 18, 2025

Locator: 48651MEMECOIN.

Scheduled for May 22, 2025.

With President Donald Trump’s private dinner for top meme coin holders less than a week away, the leaderboard is awash with crypto wallets that are effectively anonymous.
On May 22, the top 220 $TRUMP holders are invited to a dinner with the president at his Virginia golf club outside of Washington, D.C. The event was announced last month, and the tally closed Monday night.

My hunch: don't expect anyone from "Hollywood" to be there.

Elon Musk will be there, front and center. 

This is going to be absolutely fascinating.

Most fascinating: everyone is going to want his/her/their picture to be taken with Trump.

I have no idea what ethical issues, if any, are being raised, but again, the Trump family is fortunate that Joe and Hunter Biden re-set the bar. A lot is alleged but the following if factual:

Hunter Biden's Business Ventures: 

  • Burisma Holdings (Ukraine): Hunter Biden served on the board of Burisma, a major Ukrainian gas producer, from 2014 to 2019.
  • BHR Partners (China): He co-founded BHR Partners, a Chinese investment firm, in 2013.
  • CEFC China Energy: He had a business relationship with CEFC, a Chinese energy company.
  • Other Ventures: He also pursued deals in countries like Kazakhstan, Romania, and Russia.
Posted by at

Buffett's / BRK Mystery Stock -- May 18, 2025

Locator: 48650BUFFETT.

NASCAR: only 70+ laps left in final race tonight.

Mystery stock: 

No way can we guess correctly which single stock Warren Buffett has bought and asked the SEC permission to keep that purchase a "secret" for awhile. However, by sector, it is much more interesting. Eleven sectors:

  • energy: no way; 0% chance
  • materials: 20%
  • industrials: 20%
  • utilities: 90%
  • healthcare: 10%
  • financials (banks, insurance): 0% chance
  • consumer discretionary (Amazon, McDonald's, Netflix among the biggest stocks in this sector): 90%
  • consumer staples: 40%
  • information technology (Apple, Nvidia): 0%
  • having sold Apple, the best in the sector, it's unlikely he would pivot back into IT; the other IT stocks -- P/Es are in the stratosphere;
  • communication services( google, META, too much like IT): 20%
  • real estate: 10% chance

Yeah, I know the percentages don't add to 100% and don't make sense, but that's how I see it.

Although the eleven sectors above are generally “accepted,” Buffett compartmentalizes his portfolio into three main groupings. 

If it's one mystery stock, one utility (think Vistra) would fit well in his portfolio of utility companies and he loves dividends.

Consumer discretionary and consumer staples also rank high in my 30-second assessment.

What does AI say? Industrial sector, with an estimated value between $1 billion and $2 billion.

I have "industrials" at low end of likelihood. Railroads/transportation are part of the "Industrials" sector.

If you guess the right company, you get a lifetime subscription to the blog for free.

If you guess the right sector, you get a five-year subscription to the blog for free.

My hunch: Hershey.

Posted by at

Biden: Aggressive Prostate Cancern Has Metastasized To His Bone — May 18, 2025

Locator: 48649BIDENCANCER.

Updates
 
May 21, 2025: Biden's team is gradually really answers in dribs and drabs. 
Today we learn President Biden was last screened for prostate cancer when he was vice president, in 2014, when he was 72 years old. It varies but generally, sometime after the age of 70 -- as late as 85 (MD Anderson) -- routine screening for prostate cancer is discouraged.
It's generally agreed that it takes the "average" cancer of the prostate to metastasize to the bone an average of ten years. So the new information fits.
As long as Biden himself felt his urinary symptoms were tolerable/manageable for the past ten years, he would not have been tested or screened for prostate cancer. In fact, he may not have brought it up with his White House physician.
But something changed in early 2025 that led to that rectal exam that revealed a nodule. My hunch: politically, it no longer matter what a comprehensive medical exam might discover.
Original Post 

Diagnosed at least by July, 2022. Link here. Could have been “skin cancer.”

Bill Maher has it exactly right.

JFK: “Ask  not what your country can do for you, ask what you can do for your country.“

Events moving very quickly.

What could have been.

The irony: had Biden stemmed / addressed the Southern Surge, he would be president today. 

Biden himself had the “Pope-complex” — or the Ruth Bader Ginsburg-complex — exactly what we don’t need in American politics or the American presidency.

Clearly, folks were using the 25th Amendment “against” the wrong president.

Possible. Link here.

ChatGPT was asked: 

Percent of prostrate cancer determined to be “aggressive” on initial diagnosis. Percent of prostrate cancer determined to be “aggressive” on initial diagnosis.

Answer:

At the time of initial diagnosis, approximately 25% to 30% of prostate cancer cases are considered aggressive, typically characterized by a Gleason score between 7 and 10 . These higher Gleason scores indicate a greater likelihood of the cancer spreading beyond the prostate and potentially becoming life-threatening. 
However, other sources suggest that the proportion of aggressive cases at diagnosis may be lower. For instance, a Harvard study indicates that 10% to 15% of prostate cancers are aggressive and advance beyond the prostate, sometimes turning lethal. Similarly, Roswell Park Comprehensive Cancer Center notes that 1 in 5 (or 20%) of those diagnosed with prostate cancer have a more aggressive form of the disease. 
The variation in these percentages underscores the complexity of prostate cancer diagnosis and the importance of individualized assessment. Factors such as PSA levels, tumor grade, and imaging results contribute to determining the aggressiveness of the cancer and guiding appropriate treatment strategies.

”Generally,” it takes ten years for prostate cancer to metastasize to the bone. President Biden has likely had prostate cancer for ten years, diagnosed or not.

Diagnosed at least by July, 2022. Link here. Could have been “skin cancer.”

Posted by at

Best Blog Of The Day -- Tea Leaves — Big Announcements With Regard To Large Data Centers About To Be Announced For North Dakota — May 18, 2025

Locator: 48647B.

Don’t forget that Doug Burgum, former North Dakota governor and one of the nation’s richest politicians, is in Trump’s inner circle. Williston is showing success with data centers; Fargo has to be salivating.

Fargo: a most interesting city in the US. IYKYK. The maps will eventually make sense:

tdn 5.15 2-1tdn5.15

A reader sent me a link regarding new natural gas pipelines in North Dakota, which we discussed some time ago. I'll provide the links down below.

Meanwhile, for folks following the AI industry and large data centers, I highly recommend using AI for tailored answers to one's specific questions.

Two specific questions I asked ChatGPT today:

  • what are the largest AI data centers in the US; and
  • what is meant by the different tiers (Tiers I through V).

With regard to the ten largest data centers in the US, I went down that rabbit hole. The DFW area (or as ChatGPT calls is, "Dallas") is #2 following "AI Alley" in Virginia.

"AI Alley" in Virginia refers to the Ashburn area, specifically in Loudoun and Fairfax counties, where a large concentration of data centers is located. This area, also known as "Data Center Alley" or the "Dulles Technology Corridor," is a major hub for internet traffic and is a critical location for the development and deployment of AI technologies.

One search led to this answer regarding the ten largest data centers in the US:

  • Reno, NV, listed first
  • Ashburn, VA, see above
  • Secaucus, NJ
  • Los Angeles
  • Chicago
  • Atlanta, GA
  • Miami, FL
  • Quincy, WA
  • Bluffdale, UT
  • Miami, FL (second time on this list

A much better question to ask ChatGPT: what are the metro areas in the US with the largest number of large data centers? The answer:

  • Northern Virginia; "Data Center Alley"; "AI Alley"
  • DFW, Texas
  • Silicon Valley, northern California, across the bay from Oakland and south of San Francisco;
  • Chicago
  • Phoenix, Arizona
  • Atlanta, Georgia
  • Seattle/Quincy, Washington
  • NY/NJ metro (Secaucus, Newark)

Next question to ask: is Fargo, ND going to be the home of large data centers, which, of course, pertains to the new natural gas pipelines being proposed in North Dakota, from the Bakken to Fargo.

The answer begins:

Fargo, D, is emerging as a potential hub for large-scale data center development, driven by its strategic location, robust infrastructure, and supportive policies. 

Then this: two unnamed companies, each with trillion-dollar market capitalizations, are exploring the development of AI-focused data centers in North Dakota. These projects could start with capacities between 500MW and 1GW, potentially scaling up to 5 - 10GW facilities.

From the East Daley link below:

One driver behind these projects could be data centers. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported last year that North Dakota had the fastest relative growth in commercial electricity generation from 2019 to 2023, largely due to data center buildouts. 

In the Data Center Demand Monitor, East Daley is only tracking four announced data center projects in North Dakota with estimated demand of ~82 MMcf/d (see map from the  Data Center dashboard). But developers will often approach multiple potential partners about large projects prior to their announcement, which may have spurred these open seasons. 

Fargo, in addition:

  • intersection of two major US interstate highways;
  • two major universities in the immediate area (yes, Grand Forks is in the immediate area)
  • Grand Forks AFB, ND -- huge (google drones "Grand Forks AFB" -- see below)
  • aeronautical school at UND, Grand Forks, world-renown
  • excess energy -- natural gas from the Bakken
  • huge, educated work force, scalable
  • already established as a city that could become the AI center of the midwest
  • least expensive electricity in the entire United States

Now, the two links to the new natural gas pipelines being proposed in North Dakota:

North Dakota data centers: link here.

  • Williston, ND: 8
  • Fargo, ND: 4
  • Grand Forks: 2
  • Bismarck: 1
  • Ellendale: 1

South Dakota: 4

  • all four in Sioux Falls, SD

*********************
Drones and Grand Forks AFB, ND 

From AI:

  • Grand Forks Air Force Base (AFB) in North Dakota utilizes drones for various missions, including intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR). 
  • They operate RQ-4 Global Hawk remotely piloted aircraft (RPAs) for these ISR roles. 
  • The base also has a small UAS (sUAS) program for threat surveillance and deterrence, deploying small commercial drones. 
  • Specifics of Drone Operations at Grand Forks AFB: RQ-4 Global Hawk: 
  • The primary drone operated by Grand Forks AFB is the RQ-4 Global Hawk, a high-altitude, long-endurance ISR aircraft. 
  • 319th Reconnaissance Wing: The 319th Reconnaissance Wing is the host unit and operates the RQ-4 Global Hawks. 
  • sUAS Program: The 319th Reconnaissance Wing also has a small UAS program, deploying small commercial drones for various purposes, including threat surveillance. 
  • Project ULTRA: Grand Forks AFB is also involved in Project ULTRA, a project that aims to enable Beyond Visual Line of Sight (BVLOS) drone operations between the base and GrandSKY, an aviation innovation hub. 
  • FAA Regulations and Local Flight Controls: Drones are allowed in North Dakota for recreational and commercial use, subject to FAA regulations and local flight controls. 
  • Training: Grand Forks AFB provides formal training for RQ-4 pilots and sensor operators. Base-wide flying program: 
  • The small UAS program at Grand Forks AFB is a base-wide flying program, with operators from multiple units. 
  • Disaster recovery: The 319th Aircraft Maintenance Squadron also plans to implement drone use within their disaster recovery team. 

How important is the valley from Grand Forks to Fargo .... maybe we need to ask Palantir. Perhaps folks remember:

In 2022, a Chinese company, Fufeng Group, purchased land near Grand Forks Air Force Base in North Dakota, raising concerns about potential national security risks. The 300-acre purchase, located about 20 minutes from the base, was intended for a milling plant. This purchase and similar ones have prompted federal regulations to restrict foreign ownership of land near U.S. military bases, including Grand Forks, according to the Atlantic Council.
Posted by at
Labels: ,

Common Theme Among Analysts Regarding North Dakota Bakken Production -- Will Soon Peak; Rigs Being Pulled -- May 18, 2025

Locator: 48646B.

I've never considered rig count the right metric to follow when it comes to shale oil production (don't take that out of context). A much better metric is the number of well completions. 

From ChatGPT: how many well completions in the following years:

  • 2023, full year: 1,103
  • 2024, full year: 1,004
  • 2025, first quarter, 267 (may be revised); annualized for full year = 1,068 wells.

Also from ChatGPT: 

It’s worth noting that North Dakota’s oil production has remained steady, with the state producing an average of 1.191 million barrels per day in December 2024. The rig count stood at 37 in November 2024, and the number of wells waiting on completion decreased slightly from 334 in October to 301 in November. These figures suggest a stable drilling and completion environment as the state progresses through 2025.

******************************
Movie Night: Cruella

Cruella. Kinky Boots on steroids.

From Amazon Prime today -- to rent: $3.99. Watched by three of us.  

Incredible sound track including a cover of the Beatles' "Come Together" by Ike and Tina Turner.

Connecting dots:

  • Emma Stone, Mark Strong.
  • Birdman. Poor Things.
  • Tinker, Tailor ....
    • Kay Feenan: great review of TTSS, link here. 
    • she says a "romance, love film" without calling it a "romance, love film"
  • Aline Brosh McKenna: The Devil Wears Prada.
  • Kelly Marcel: Fifty Shades of Grey.

Posted by at

Initial Production Data For Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- May 17, 2025

Locator: 48645B.

The wells:

  • 41203, conf, Silver Hill Operating, Ringneck W 159-94-11-23-1MBHX, North Tioga, npd, 
  • 40770, conf, Phoenix Operating, Jacobson 19-30-31 3H,  Skabo,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
3-20252257519632
2-2025120459722
1-20252001116976
12-2024206090
11-202412730
  • 41204, conf, Silver Hill Operating, Ringneck W 159-94-11-23-2MBHX, North Tioga, npd,
  • 41144, conf, BR, Devils Backbone 5E, Westberg, npd,
  • 40998, conf, Phoenix Operating, Jacobson 19-30-31 1H-LLR, Burg,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
3-20251967820448
2-20251193010302
1-20251769515468
12-2024193273244
11-202411570
  • 40895, conf, Phoenix Operating, Jacobson 19-30-31 6H-LL, Skabo,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
3-20252401520024
2-202573615519
1-20251939717463
12-2024165840
11-20249330
  • 40831, conf, Hess, EN-Horst-154-93-0310H-10, Robinson Lake,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
3-20252036725199
2-20251946921571
1-20252044121226
12-20241513115493
11-202432683947
  • 40791, conf, Phoenix Operating, Jacobson 19-30-31 5H, Skabo,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
3-20252145418382
2-20251421212090
1-20252158619244
12-2024173630
11-20249960
  • 40790, conf, Phoenix Operating, Jacobson 19-30-31 5H, Skabo,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
3-20251619416000
2-2025110288077
1-20252008917343
12-2024205880
11-202413270
  • 40229, conf, Hess, EN-Horst-154-93-1003H-7, Robinson Lake,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
3-20251716926912
2-20251470318162
1-20251667418532
12-20241558918616
11-202424172259
  • 41205, conf, Silver Hill Energy, Ringneck 159-94-11-23-3MBHX, Tioga, npd,
  • 40501, conf, Oasis, Lee S 5201 21-8 5B, Camp,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
3-20252269422511
2-20251655514893
1-20251631815260
12-20242440023504
11-202420313079
  • 40500, conf, Oasis, Lee S 5201 21-8 4B, Camp,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
3-20252061421688
2-20251870417316
1-20251653615033
12-20242278819469
11-202429363874
  • 40810, conf, Hess, E-Uran A-LW-154-93-1521H-1, Robinson Lake,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
3-20251818923454
2-20251490516077
1-20251730918584
12-20242885432964
11-202474698298
  • 40489, conf, Oasis, Lee S 5201 21-8 3B, Camp,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
3-20252213521127
2-20251734515688
1-20251627514781
12-20242225818745
11-202433244276
  • 41145, conf, BR, Watchman Peak 5E, Westberg, npd,
  • 40499, conf, Oasis, Lee S 5201 21-8 2B, Camp,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
3-20252351423799
2-20252154919223
1-20251786716859
12-20242444619730
11-202453177220
  • 41041, conf, XTO, Lizette State 21X-16AXD, Grinnell, npd,
  • 25073, conf, Grayson Mill, Sand Creek State 153-96-16-10H, Sand Creek,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
3-2025840124630
2-2025123977390
  • 40830, conf, Hess, EN-Horst-154-93-0310H-9, Robinson Lake,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
3-20251767325785
2-20251832320118
1-20251954121350
12-20241941120591
11-2024768211275
  • 40684, conf, XTO, HBU Lizette State 21X-16E, Hofflund, npd,
  • 41040, conf, XTO, HBU Lizette State Federal 21X-16G, Hofflund, npd,
  • 40861, conf, Hunt, Alexandria 161-100-23-35H-3, Alexandria,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
3-20252737210743
2-2025185289872
1-2025145927435
12-2024168817267
11-202457361965
  • 40860, conf, Hunt, Alexandria 161-100-23-35H-2, Alexandria,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
3-2025248769228
2-20252245113144
1-2025180049487
12-202458212369
11-20242259636
  • 40494, conf, Oasis, Lee N 5201 21-5 6B, Camp,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
3-20252407423332
2-20252301620428
1-20252233021466
12-20242670322460
11-2024106701523
  • 37576, conf, BR, Keene 21-2 MBH, Little Knife, npd,
  • 41039, conf, XTO, HBU Lizette State Federal 21X-16C, Hofflund, npd,
  • 40542, conf, Hess, EN-Horst-154-93-0310H-8, Robinson Lake,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
3-20251371921118
2-20251494017532
1-20251418214833
12-20241292512038
11-2024127816421

Posted by at

Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- May 17, 2025

Locator: 48644B.

The wells:

Wednesday, May 28, 2025: 51 for the month, 151 for the quarter, 365 for the year,
41203, conf, Silver Hill Operating, Ringneck W 159-94-11-23-1MBHX,
40770, conf, Phoenix Operating, Jacobson 19-30-31 3H, 

Tuesday, May 27, 2025: 51 for the month, 151 for the quarter, 363 for the year,
41204, conf, Silver Hill Operating, Ringneck W 159-94-11-23-2MBHX,
41144, conf, BR, Devils Backbone 5E,
40998, conf, Phoenix Operating, Jacobson 19-30-31 1H-LLR,

Monday, May 26, 2025: 51 for the month, 151 for the quarter, 360 for the year,
40895, conf, Phoenix Operating, Jacobson 19-30-31 6H-LL,
40831, conf, Hess, EN-Horst-154-93-0310H-10,
40791, conf, Phoenix Operating, Jacobson 19-30-31 5H,
40790, conf, Phoenix Operating, Jacobson 19-30-31 5H,
40229, conf, Hess, EN-Horst-154-93-1003H-7,

Sunday, May 25, 2025: 51 for the month, 151 for the quarter, 355 for the year,
41205, conf, Silver Hill Energy, Ringneck 159-94-11-23-3MBHX,
40501, conf, Oasis, Lee S 5201 21-8 5B,
40500, conf, Oasis, Lee S 5201 21-8 4B,

Saturday, May 24, 2025: 51 for the month, 151 for the quarter, 352 for the year,
40810, conf, Hess, E-Uran A-LW-154-93-1521H-1,
40489, conf, Oasis, Lee S 5201 21-8 3B,

Friday, May 23, 2025: 51 for the month, 151 for the quarter, 350 for the year,
None.

Thursday, May 22, 2025: 51 for the month, 151 for the quarter, 350 for the year,
41145, conf, BR, Watchman Peak 5E,
40499, conf, Oasis, Lee S 5201 21-8 2B,

Wednesday, May 21, 2025: 51 for the month, 151 for the quarter, 348 for the year,
41041, conf, XTO, Lizette State 21X-16AXD,
25073, conf, Grayson Mill, Sand Creek State 153-96-16-10H,

Tuesday, May 20, 2025: 49 for the month, 149 for the quarter, 346 for the year,
40830, conf, Hess, EN-Horst-154-93-0310H-9,

Monday, May 19, 2025: 48 for the month, 148 for the quarter, 345 for the year,
40684, conf, XTO, HBU Lizette State 21X-16E,

Sunday, May 18, 2025: 47 for the month, 147 for the quarter, 344 for the year,
41040, conf, XTO, HBU Lizette State Federal 21X-16G,
40861, conf, Hunt, Alexandria 161-100-23-35H-3,
40860, conf, Hunt, Alexandria 161-100-23-35H-2,
40494, conf, Oasis, Lee N 5201 21-5 6B,
37576, conf, BR, Keene 21-2 MBH,

Saturday, May 17, 2025: 42 for the month, 142 for the quarter, 339 for the year,
41039, conf, XTO, HBU Lizette State Federal 21X-16C,
40542, conf, Hess, EN-Horst-154-93-0310H-8,

Posted by at
Subscribe to: Comments (Atom)