Wednesday, September 10, 2025

Deja Vu All Over Again -- Another Trillion-Dollar Mistake? September 10, 2025

Locator: 49071WTI.

Tag: trillion-dollar mistake.

Updates

September 11, 2025:

Original Post

See this oilprice story: oil to drop below $60 by year-end, 2026, link here.

The following was posted back in 2016. Link here.

Locator: 10010SAUDI.

The original post was dated May 9, 2016.  This page was originally linked at the sidebar at the right as "Saudi (Re)Surgence," following it's trillion-dollar mistake, the 2014 - 2016 debacle.
Saudi started to recover from the debacle by 2018 or so but then inexplicably tried to destroy US shale again, in early 2020, resulting in a plunge in oil prices worldwide. At one time, WTI actually went negative.

This post, as of today, May 25, 2020, will now take on a broader, longer range outlook. 

Saudi's very continued existence depends short-term (between 2020 and 2022) on the price of oil, and longer term (after 2022) on whether the country can diversify away from an economy solely based on production and exporting of oil. The success of Prince MbS' Vision 2030 plan is absolutely critical. The Saudi Aramco IPO was part of that plan.

My price points for WTI:
  • $30 - $39: US shale survives;
  • $40 - $49: US shale shows life;
  • $50 - $59: US shale thrives;
  • $60 - $69: US shale does very well;
Both Russia and Saudi Arabia need to see Brent at $60, and even that is barely enough for Saudi Arabia. 

If I can have only one metric to follow Saudi's long term prospects, it would be Saudi's monthly foreign reserve assets.

The House of Saud is in deep, deep trouble
 
Data links:

Government reserves:

  • 2021: 280 billion riyals ($75 billion)
  • 2020: 346 billion riyals ($92 billion)
  • 2019: 500 billion riyals ($133 billion)

Budget:

  • 2020: 1.02 trillion riyals ($272 billion)

Revenues:

  • 2020: 833 billion riyals
  • 2019: 917 billion riyals

Budget deficit:

  • 2020: 187 billion riyals

PIF (sovereign wealth fund):

  • 2019: around $300 billion

Foreign exchange reserves: link here.

Policy: Saudi Arabia does not openly publish the amount of assets it holds within its sovereign wealth fund, known as the Public Investment Fund (PIF). The Institute of International Finance estimated in a report in June that the kingdom has assets worth around $300 billion with roughly a quarter of its holdings overseas. The Sovereign Wealth Fund Institute puts the figure closer to $320 billion. December, 2019. Link here.

iPhone Air -- Pre-Order This Week -- Available September 19, 2025 -- Posted September 10, 2025

Locator: 49070APPLE.

Link here. iPhone Air. Brand new, slightly less than $50 / month for two years. No interest. With my cash-back credit card could be another option.

Or T-Mobile: "on us" with trade in. Link here.

iPhone 17 Pro: as low as $0.00 / month with trade-in. Link here. iPhone 17 Pro: $30.56 / month; no interest.

Needs to be fact-checked and offers probably vary significantly. Just posting what I see at the links, which I assume are subject to change.  

I think the #1 "obstacle" to upgrading a phone is going through the paperwork; transferring "stuff" from the old phone to the new phone; and, doing the facial recognition "stuff" again. At least it is for me. I don't know; I'm getting too old for this but that iPhone titanium Air, double-sided ceramic shield is sure tempting. We'll see. 

*************************
The Television Page

Rockford Files, season 2, episode 9.

Perhaps the best episode ever with Angel.

Four New Permits -- September 10, 2025

Locator: 49069B.

WTI: $63.67.

Active rigs: 35.

Four new permits, #42293 - #42296, inclusive:

  • Operators: Phoenix Operating (2); BR (2);
  • Fields: Big Meadow (Williams County); Dimmick Lake (McKenzie County)
  • Comments:
    • Phoenix has permits for two Charlene Ferrari wells, SWSE 9-158-96; 
      • to be sited 460 FSL and 2192 / 2343 FEL;
    • BR has permits for two wells, a Stortroen well and a Demicks Lake well, SESE 24-151-97 and SESW 7-151-96; 
      • to be sited 894/ 990 FSL and 1225 FWL.

Two permits renewed:

  • Hunt Oil, two Alexandria wells, Divide County; #41128 and #41136.

Two producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 37576, 885, BR, Keene 21-2 MBH, Dunn County;
  • 41233, 885 (no typo), BR, Keene 14-35TFH, Dunn County;

Chattajack -- October 25, 2025 -- Posted September 10, 2025

Locator: 49068RACE.

Next road trip. Whoo-hoo.

31 miles through the Tennessee River gorge. On a stand-up paddle board.

Her fourth time.

Link here.

Kiri will compete.

There are currently 225 folks on the wait list.

2024 results

Kiri: number 453. 

3.8 mph. 

8 hours 7 minutes 56 seconds.

New Phenomenon -- Coffee Shops -- Wednesday, September 10, 2025

Locator: 49067APPLE.

In the "old" days people worked on one device at the Starbucks (a metonym for cyber-coffee shops) -- their laptop, often an Apple.

But now, and this is amazing. Generally folks work with two devices, a cell phone and a laptop, with or without Air Pods.

And now today, it's still the laptop as the centerpiece, but folks are adding a tablet (iPad) alongside their laptop, and then maybe an iPhone. This is a relatively new phenomenon and not to be taken lightly.

My hunch: social media on the iPhone -- but using their laptop to watch videos / FaceTime / etc and then the laptop to interface witht ChatGPT.

More and more ChatGPT (pick your own chatbot) is becoming an indispensable confidant. It is truly amazing. If one thought Amazon knows "everything" about somebody through their buying habits, that doesn't even compare to what ChatGPT knows about me. 

It would be interesting if Amazon would allow folks to have two passwords: one password that would only open history of what I've searched / bought that I could openly share with whomever I wanted (like ChatGPT) and then a super-secret password with my credit card, for example. I would love to have ChatGPT know my buying history; ChatGPT would do an incredible job of alerting me to bargains. LOL. 

But back to the original thought: the new phenomenon in cyber-cafes -- a laptop for work; an iPad for FaceTime; AirPods which now translate in real time; and, finally, the iPhone for ... well, for whatever one needs the iPhone for. 

A simple Google search is so .... well, yesterday. A conversation with ChatGPT is addictive. It will be interesting to see how these chatbots are monetized. 

Breaking! Sam Altman Jumps In -- Oracle Is On A Roll -- September 10, 2025

Locator: 49066AVGO.

Link here.

OpenAI signed a contract to purchase $300 billion in computing power over roughly five years from Oracle, a massive commitment that far outstrips its current revenue.
The deal is one of the largest cloud contracts ever signed, reflecting how spending on AI data centers is hitting new highs despite mounting concerns over a potential bubble. It will require 4.5 gigawatts of capacity, roughly comparable to the power produced by more than two Hoover Dams or the amount consumed by about four million homes.
Oracle shares surged by 42% on Wednesday after the cloud company revealed it added $317 billion in future contract revenue during its latest quarter that ended in August 31, 2025.
Chief Executive Safra Catz told analysts that it had signed contracts with three different customers during the quarter.

Broadcom -- For The Archives -- September 10, 2025

Locator: 49065AVGO.

Amazing to listen to "The Halftime Report" on CNBC this morning and listening to all the talking heads who said they saw this coming and positioned themselves some weeks ago. 

Wow, they're really good. 

They are really brilliant.



North Dakota Cattle Sales Setting Records -- Bowman, ND -- September 10, 2025

Locator: 49064CATTLE. 

Updates

September 13, 2025: from ChatGPT -- 

If I had to pick, I’d say 2014 was the most recent year that came close to what ranchers are seeing now — high returns, tight supply, good pricing. But this current period may exceed 2014 in some respects, depending heavily on cost control, drought conditions, and how fast inventories rebuild.

September 13, 2025: a reader and I have been having a sidebar discussion on "big bucks" for cattle this fall. Now, from The Wall Street Journal today.


From the linked article, the lede:

Business hasn’t been this good for cattle ranchers in decades, maybe ever. Herds are thin and beef demand is strong, helping send prices for everything from ground beef to steaks to record levels.

Ranchers are putting some of their windfall toward upgrading long-neglected equipment. Others are paying off longstanding debts.

Shaun Loughery is pouring his earnings into bull semen.

In past years, he has spent around $120,000 annually on semen and breeding bulls. The idea is to produce cattle that can yield juicier steaks—and fetch higher prices. This year, Loughery plans to double his typical investment.

And even though his profit is up roughly 35% compared with last year, he isn’t taking a vacation. He’s doing ultrasounds on his pregnant cows, known as bred heifers.

Original Post

National Beef Wire.

From a reader, thank you very much, this morning:

Oracle Continues To Surge -- Now Up Over 40%; Up Over $103 / Share -- September 10, 2025

Locator: 49063ABSURD. 

Updates

Later, 1:29 p.m. CT:

Link here.

OpenAI signed a contract to purchase $300 billion in computing power over roughly five years from Oracle, a massive commitment that far outstrips its current revenue.
The deal is one of the largest cloud contracts ever signed, reflecting how spending on AI data centers is hitting new highs despite mounting concerns over a potential bubble. It will require 4.5 gigawatts of capacity, roughly comparable to the power produced by more than two Hoover Dams or the amount consumed by about four million homes.
Oracle shares surged by 42% on Wednesday after the cloud company revealed it added $317 billion in future contract revenue during its latest quarter that ended in August 31, 2025.
Chief Executive Safra Catz told analysts that it had signed contracts with three different customers during the quarter.

Original Post

Why hasn't trading been stopped? LOL.

I was surprised by Sara Eisen asking the wrong question with regard to Oracle. She asked from which companies Oracle was taking these big deals. She completely misunderstands what is going on, if I understand her question / if I heard her question correctly. She is suggesting "this" is a zero-sum game. It's not. If Oracle is surging, someone else must be losing. Nope, that's not the way it works. She may want to look at all the other tech companies today. Unless folks are taking AAPL profits to buy ORCL, which is very, very possible. I doubt this is complemented by a short squeeze but this is exhibit A why I don't short stocks.

Never Thought I Would See This -- Rumors From A Credible Source -- American Airlines Will Lose One Of Its Ten Hubs -- Chicago At Risk -- September 10, 2025

Locator: 49062AIRLINES.

Source. A google search will provide lots of background.

United Airlines surging, expanding at Chicago's O'Hare.

United to gain five or six new gates at O'Hare; American Airlines could lose up to four gates or so. It's dynamic.

See wiki for American Airlines' ten hubs.

From ChatGPT: when people say that American Airlines might “de‑hob” Chicago’s O’Hare, they’re referring to the possibility that American could significantly downsize—or potentially cease—its hub operations at O’Hare Airport.

More from ChatGPT:

What Does “De‑Hob” (or De‑Hub) Mean?

  • “Hub”: A central airport where an airline coordinates a large number of flights—bringing in passengers from many locations and then redistributing them onward through connecting flights.

  • “De‑hub”: The reverse—when an airline reduces or dismantles these hub operations. That often means fewer flights, fewer connecting routes, and a diminished presence at the airport.

So, if American Airlines were to de‑hub O’Hare, it would shift away from using it as a major connecting center and potentially reduce scheduled flights drastically.


Why Is This Topic Arising Now?

  1. Gate Reallocation Dispute

    • Chicago’s Department of Aviation has started a gate re‑allocation process (triggered under a “use it or lose it” clause) that would give United Airlines an estimated five to six additional gates, while American would lose around four Chicago Business+1flights.ceoThe Wall Street Journal.

    • United would grow its share of gate space from around 40% to approximately 42%, while American’s share would drop from around 32% to about 30% Chicago Business+1The Wall Street Journal.

  2. Legal Pushback from American

    • American has sued the city, arguing this re‑determination process was triggered prematurely. Their agreement mandates a full year of operating with recently added gates at Terminal 3 (completed March 14, 2025), before any gate re‑evaluations can begin—meaning the next possible reallocation should not happen until at least 2027 Chicago Business+1Chicago Sun-Times.

  3. Competitive Fallout

    • Losing gate space may lead American to cut flights or lower its programming at O’Hare. For example, hundreds of flights could be canceled, particularly on routes like Chicago–Dallas/Fort Worth, Wilmington, El Paso, Kansas City, Pittsburgh, and LaGuardia—totaling around 28 weekly flights Chicago Star Media.


What It Means for Travelers

  • Fewer direct and connecting flights from O’Hare on American.

  • Potential fare increases: Hub reductions can lead to less competition and higher fares, especially if low-cost options aren’t available TRID.

  • More limited schedules or fewer destinations, as American may reassess route profitability from O’Hare.


The Broader Picture

  • This tussle isn’t just a legal fight; it's a strategic battle over control at one of the busiest U.S. airports.

  • United, positioned as a hometown carrier, is expanding aggressively and aiming to gain market share at O'Hare The Wall Street JournalChicago Businessflights.ceo.

  • American’s response—through litigation—suggests they’re trying to protect their long‑term role at the airport but may face shrinking influence if the city proceeds with gate shifts.


TL;DR

“De‑hob” means American potentially dismantling its hub infrastructure at Chicago O’Hare. It stems from a dispute over gate re‑allocation where United stands to gain space—prompting American to sue the city to delay the process. If American loses that battle, travelers may see fewer flight options and possibly higher fares at O’Hare.

Inflation -- PPI -- Holy Mackerel -- All That Concern About Inflation Caused By Tariffs! September 10, 2025

Locator: 49061INFLATION.

Link here.

PPI ex energy and food came in at a negative number! But even more extraordinary, the expectations were for an increase in inflation. The estimate was not trivial: the estimate has been for an increase of 0.3%.

In fact, the PPI ex energy and food came in at -0.1%.

The experts and the CNBC anchors and talking heads: it get tedious.

Clearly it's time for JPow to lower rates ... by ... 75 basis points. LOL.

The jobs market is crashing and except for a few bright spots in Texas and California's Silicon Valley, the American economy is not doing well. 

Apple Silicon -- Update -- After The Apple Presentation -- September 10, 2025

Locator: 49060APPLE. 

Wiki. Has not updated N1 yet.

Thread for developers on Apple. Link here.

Lots of "stuff" here to unwind, but the bottom line for me, Apple:

  • slow, methodical; one chip at a time; one partner at a time;
  • continues to embed the iPhone into one's daily life; and,
  • is laser-focused on privacy and cost.

And continues to explore AV/AR. Right now Meta seems to have the lead and yet Meta's AV/AR seems to be a "toy" compared to Apple's vision. No pun intended.

APPLE SILICON

ChatGPT prompt:

Apple presentation regarding Apple Silicon: were there any other chips introduced other than the N1, C1MX, A19, A19Pro?

ChatGPT reply:

You’re absolutely on the mark—and it’s a great question. Beyond the A19 and A19 Pro (the main iPhone SoCs), the Apple presentation—especially for the iPhone 17 and iPhone 17 Air—also introduced two significant new in-house chips.

New chips introduced:

  1. N1 – a brand-new wireless networking chip built by Apple.

    • Replaces components previously sourced from Broadcom.

    • Provides Wi-Fi 7, Bluetooth 6, and Thread support.

    • Enhances connectivity performance and reliability—including improvements to AirDrop and Personal Hotspot.

  1. C1X – a next-generation 5G cellular modem designed by Apple.

    • Promises up to 2× faster speeds than its predecessor, the C1.

    • Offers notably improved energy efficiency (up to 30% less energy use).

ChatGPT prompt:
  • These new chips: impact on Wi-Fi 7 and Thread enable?

ChatGPT reply:

Impact of thread (via N1):

Wi-Fi 7 is the first real generational leap since Wi-Fi 6, and Apple is positioning the N1 as the enabler:

  • Speed – up to ~5× faster than Wi-Fi 6 under ideal conditions (think multiple gigabits per second).

    → Big for iCloud backups, AR/VR streaming, and Apple Vision Pro integration.

  • Lower Latency – crucial for FaceTime, gaming, or collaborative apps.

    → Makes the iPhone behave more like a wired connection when on strong Wi-Fi.

  • Multi-Link Operation – Wi-Fi 7 can use multiple bands (2.4 GHz, 5 GHz, 6 GHz) simultaneously.

    → iPhones can hold a rock-solid connection even in congested networks (airports, conferences).

Impact of Thread (via N1)

Thread is a low-power mesh networking protocol for smart-home devices (part of the Matter standard).

  • Direct Smart Home Control – Your iPhone becomes a Thread border router, meaning it can directly control smart bulbs, locks, thermostats without relying on a HomePod or Apple TV.

  • Energy Efficiency – Thread devices sip power. This makes iPhones better at acting as the roaming “brain” in a Matter-enabled home.

  • Resilience – Unlike Wi-Fi or Bluetooth alone, Thread creates a self-healing mesh. So if one node goes down, others still communicate.

Why this matters in Apple's world:

  • Short Term: Faster Wi-Fi for backups, sharing, and Apple Vision Pro tethering.

  • Medium Term: Your iPhone becomes the universal remote and hub for Matter smart homes.

  • Long Term: Apple is building an ecosystem where every device (watch, phone, Vision Pro, smart home) talks seamlessly without third-party silicon.

    👉 So the N1 isn’t just about performance — it’s Apple bringing connectivity in-house, the same way Apple Silicon CPUs freed them from Intel.

ChatGPT prompt: what does Apple gain by ditching Broadcom for this N1 chip (beyond just features?)

ChatGPT reply:

Control over the stack:

  • With Broadcom, Apple was tied to a third-party roadmap.

  • Now Apple can synchronize networking with its A-series chips, modems, and NPUs, tailoring power management, antenna tuning, and latency for its own use cases (AirDrop, Vision Pro streaming, HomeKit/Thread).

  • It’s the same playbook Apple used when it ditched Intel for Apple Silicon — vertical integration means performance and efficiency optimizations that competitors can’t easily match.

Cost and supply chain independence:

  • Apple was spending billions annually on Broadcom components.

  • By designing N1 in-house, Apple reduces reliance on an external vendor, gains pricing leverage, and de-risks supply chain constraints.

  • Over time, this lowers per-unit costs and keeps Apple’s enormous gross margins intact.

Ecosystem lock-in:

  • N1 isn’t just a Wi-Fi chip — it’s a gateway to Wi-Fi 7 + Bluetooth 6 + Thread.

  • Apple can tune these protocols to just work better in Apple-to-Apple scenarios (AirDrop faster between iPhones, smoother Vision Pro tethering, better AirPlay).

  • That strengthens the “only Apple talks to Apple this well” moat.

Freedom to innovate beyond standards:

  • Broadcom has to design chips that serve all customers (Samsung, Google, routers, etc.).

  • Apple can add proprietary features on top of Wi-Fi/Thread standards (for instance, prioritizing Vision Pro streams, or enabling peer-to-peer gaming/AR modes).

  • This lets Apple differentiate at the connectivity layer, which was impossible when they were tied to Broadcom’s generic roadmap.

Strategic leverage against partners:

  • Broadcom still supplies other components (e.g., RF chips). By showing it can replace Broadcom in a key domain, Apple strengthens its hand in negotiations.

  • Just like it did with Intel, Imagination (GPU IP), and Qualcomm (modems), Apple signals: “If you overcharge us or slow us down, we’ll build it ourselves.”

Platform for the future (IoT + AR/VR:

  • Thread support means Apple can quietly make the iPhone the default hub for the Matter smart-home ecosystem, displacing Amazon and Google.

  • Ultra-fast Wi-Fi 7 + custom optimizations mean better AR/VR performance when pairing iPhones with Vision Pro or future glasses.

 Bottom line

  • Ditching Broadcom gives Apple strategic autonomy, higher margins, ecosystem lock-in, and a new platform for smart homes and AR/VR — all in one move. The technical features are just the visible surface; the real win is long-term control.
ChatGPT prompt:

Apple: what is Thread / Part of the Matter Standard?

 ChatGPT reply:

Great question — this is one of those things Apple talks about in a single line during a keynote, but it’s quietly very important.

What is Thread?

  • Thread is a low-power, wireless networking protocol designed for smart-home devices.

  • Think of it as an alternative to Wi-Fi or Bluetooth, but optimized for small, battery-powered devices like sensors, locks, lightbulbs, and thermostats.

  • Key features:

    • Mesh networking → devices connect to each other, not just a central hub. If one device goes offline, the network self-heals.

    • Low latency → faster than Bluetooth for things like turning lights on.

    • Energy efficient → devices can run for years on a coin-cell battery.

Thread + Matter?

  • Matter is a new industry standard for smart-home interoperability, backed by Apple, Google, Amazon, Samsung, and others.

  • Goal: all smart-home devices should “just work” together, no matter the brand.

  • Thread is one of the main transport layers for Matter (alongside Wi-Fi).

So:

  • Matter = the language (common standard).

  • Thread = one of the wires (network technology carrying the messages).

Why Apple cares: 

  • Apple has built Thread into HomePod mini, Apple TV 4K, and now iPhones (via N1 chip).

  • That means your iPhone can become a Thread border router, connecting low-power Matter devices directly without needing extra hubs.

  • Long-term vision: an Apple ecosystem where your iPhone, Watch, and HomePod seamlessly manage your smart home without third-party dependency.

In short:

  • Thread = the networking tech.

  • Matter = the standard that makes devices interoperable.

  • Apple’s N1 chip = makes your iPhone a key player in both.

Bottom line:Apple's N1 chip will make it possible for your iPhone to recognize / activate:
  • a smart lock from Google, a thermostat from Amazon, and a lamp from Ikea, and will control it all from an iPhone?

Right now that can be done through proprietary apps but it's becoming a pain to manage all those apps on the Apple iPhone screen.

The ChatGPT thread continues ... but enough for now.

I'm really, really excited what this all means for Sophia -- age eleven. LOL.

Headlines -- September 10, 2025

Locator: 49059ARCHIVES. 

Jargon: it's called a "chyron" because that's the name of a company, Chyron Corporation, that developed early, revolutionary software for creating and displaying text graphics on television screens. 

The word "chyron" is a genericized trademark, meaning the brand name became so synonymous with the product type that it's now used to describe any similar graphics, even if made by another company.
The company, originally named Systems Resource Corporation, changed its name to Chiron (and then to Chyron) and derived that name from the Greek mythological figure Chiron, a wise and benevolent centaur. [Why? Asking for a friend.]

AI: is going to destroy the subscription model for mainstream media (NY Times, WSJ, etc). "Apps" as we know them today will eventually be a thing of the past.

Generation jargon: "Traditionalists" -- new term? For those currently over the age of 80 years of age; Formerly called the "Greatest Generation." A small demographic, obviously, but big spenders.

Geo-political: is Russia attacking Poland directly? If so, why? A shot across the bow, as they say? Testing the US defense systems?

Gold: sets yet another high. Now trading for $3,663 and change.

Oracle: again, the headlines regarding Oracle are simply amazing. Right now, Oracle, pre-market, is up over 30%; now up over $72 in pre-market trading. Talking heads can't come up adjectives / adverbs to describe this.

Joe Kernen, CNBC: again, exactly right. Becky Quick is such a lightweight. Sorkin? Well, what can I say?

Apple presentation: I don't even know where to begin. I will have to wait for the orders that begin to reported later this month. Until then it's just talk.

Back To The Bakken -- September 10, 2025

Locator: 49058B. 

Salt water disposal wells in the Bakken: look at the number of permits for new SWD wells, all in Divide County; to put this in perspective -- historically, I may post a permit for one new SWD wells very six months; sometimes even longer intervals. Obviously it's a nice proxy for operator activity:

WTI: $63.01.

New wells:

  • Thursday, September 11, 2025: 16 for the month, 109 for the quarter, 549 for the year,
    • 41520, conf, MRO, Clawson 11-18H,
    • 39743, conf, Grayson Mill, Darlene 13-24F 6TFH,
  • Wednesday, September 10, 2025: 14 for the month, 107 for the quarter, 547 for the year, 
    • 41521, conf, MRO, Semerad 11-18H, 

RBN Energy: Alberta oil sands consolidation fires up with Cenovus-MEG Merger — maybe!

Merger activity this year has been frequent in Canada’s oil and gas sector as companies strive for scale and efficiencies in an increasingly competitive landscape. The latest M&A salvo arrived in late August when MEG Energy agreed to a takeover offer from Cenovus Energy to create the largest bitumen producer in Alberta’s oil sands. With billions of barrels of reserves up for development, it is a chance for Cenovus to further consolidate and expand its existing lead in bitumen output from the oil sands. However, what might seem a straightforward corporate merger has been buffeted by a rival bid from Strathcona Resources in its attempt to create scale and ensure its own long-term competitiveness. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll examine the details of the two offers and what is at stake for all involved. 

It might not be quite merger mania in Canada’s oil and gas sector this year, but activity has been steady and filled with several headline-grabbing items. As is the case with almost all M&A activity, the primary focus is on attempting to enhance value for public and private shareholders by combining assets that might be operated more efficiently by a single combined firm, accompanied by a reduction in operating costs. Another undercurrent for Canada’s M&A activity has been about attempting to achieve sufficient scale through consolidation to allow for stronger competition with both domestic and international rivals, given that Canada is a relatively small country economically and by population, so it needs to punch well above its weight to remain relevant and competitive.

There has also been a consistent theme this year by Canadian companies in all sectors to not only grow larger but to also “Canadianize” important assets given the increased trading frictions with its largest trade partner (and occasional corporate rival), the U.S. (The evolving relationship between the U.S. and Canada was a main theme of our recent School of Energy Canada. For information on a newly available replay of the conference, click here.)

Although more than a dozen property and corporate deals of various sizes have been consummated in Canada’s oil and gas sector this year, two leaped to the forefront because they embodied not only an attempt to achieve scale and consolidation (hence competitiveness) but also kept assets in Canadian hands or brought assets owned by a foreign entity under Canadian control. The first was the blockbuster C$15 billion (US$10.7 billion) merger of Canadian companies Whitecap Resources and Veren Inc. in March that combined conventional and unconventional oil and gas producing assets and, since the completion of the merger in May, created the seventh largest oil and gas producer in Canada. The second deal of size concerned midstream assets when Keyera purchased the NGL business of Plains Midstream Canada (a wholly owned subsidiary of Plains All American) in June for C$5.15 billion (US$3.75 billion), creating a Canada-wide NGL processing and transportation machine.

Oracle: The Paragraph That Started It All -- The One Sentence In That Paragraph -- September 10, 2025

Locator: 49057ORACLE. 

Pre-market, September 10, 2025: ORCL is now up over 32%; up over $78 / share.


Backlog: just in RPOs: "This resulted in RPO contract backlog increasing 359% to $455 billion."

Boeing: remember the good old days when all we talked about was the "backlog" in Boeing sales. Wow. Oracle is raising this to a whole new level. 

Oracle:

  • Oracle: contesting the "bubble" meme; link here.

This was the sentence that started it all:

"We signed four multi-billion-dollar contracts with three different customers in Q1," said Oracle CEO, Safra Catz. "This resulted in RPO contract backlog increasing 359% to $455 billion. 

This was the paragraph that started it all:

"We signed four multi-billion-dollar contracts with three different customers in Q1," said Oracle CEO, Safra Catz. "This resulted in RPO contract backlog increasing 359% to $455 billion.
It was an astonishing quarter—and demand for Oracle Cloud Infrastructure continues to build.
Over the next few months, we expect to sign-up several additional multi-billion-dollar customers and RPO is likely to exceed half-a-trillion dollars.
The scale of our recent RPO growth enables us to make a large upward revision to the Cloud Infrastructure portion of Oracle's overall financial plan which we will be presenting in detail next month at the Financial Analyst Meeting.
As a bit of a preview, we expect Oracle Cloud Infrastructure revenue to grow 77% to $18 billion this fiscal year—and then increase to $32 billion, $73 billion, $114 billion, and $144 billion over the subsequent four years. Most of the revenue in this 5-year forecast is already booked in our reported RPO.
Oracle is off to a brilliant start to FY26." 

The chart, from Beth:

Market value now? Trending toward $1 trillion.

Ticker before market opens today:

And The Day Hasn't Even Started Yet -- September 10, 2025

Locator: 49056ARCHIVES.

Jobs: link here. The revision is beyond the pale and their seems to be no interest by the mainstream media to "investigate."

Tech headlines:

  • Apple, TSM, Devon, oil and gas free cash flow: link here.
  • TSM: August revenue jumps to $11 billion; link here.
    • revenue rose to $80 billion ytd
  • the AI factory where NVDA GPUs, Apple Silicon, AVGO accelerators, and AMD CPUS are built;
    • how does one company account for so many -- and so many different -- blades?
  • Google Cloud: forecasts $58 billion revenue boost by 2027; link here.
  • Oracle: contesting the "bubble" meme; link here.

This was the paragraph that started it all:

"We signed four multi-billion-dollar contracts with three different customers in Q1," said Oracle CEO, Safra Catz. "This resulted in RPO contract backlog increasing 359% to $455 billion.
It was an astonishing quarter—and demand for Oracle Cloud Infrastructure continues to build.
Over the next few months, we expect to sign-up several additional multi-billion-dollar customers and RPO is likely to exceed half-a-trillion dollars.
The scale of our recent RPO growth enables us to make a large upward revision to the Cloud Infrastructure portion of Oracle's overall financial plan which we will be presenting in detail next month at the Financial Analyst Meeting.
As a bit of a preview, we expect Oracle Cloud Infrastructure revenue to grow 77% to $18 billion this fiscal year—and then increase to $32 billion, $73 billion, $114 billion, and $144 billion over the subsequent four years. Most of the revenue in this 5-year forecast is already booked in our reported RPO.
Oracle is off to a brilliant start to FY26." 

The year that the music died:

  • Stellantis scraps 100% EV target by 2030;
    • car giant abandons EV-only plans; IYKYK; link here.
  • Canada re-thinks EV targets to aid carmakers; link here

Canadian EV news: I even wonder why Americans are so hung up on Canada when one looks at Canada's GDP and compares it to California, Texas; link here.

  • the numbers blow me away

Natural gas turbines: