Wednesday, November 23, 2016

Two New Permits; Five Permits Renewed; No DUCs Reported As Completed -- November 23, 2016

Active rigs:

Active Rigs3765191185183

Two new permits:
  • Operator: Enerplus
  • Field: Spotted Horn (McKenzie)
  • Comments:
Five permits renewed:
  • EOG (2): two Wayzetta permits, Mountrail County
  • Whiting (2): two Pronghorn Federal permits, Billings County
  • Berengy: a Borstad 30-4 permit, Bottineau County
No producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed.

Gasoline Demand

The Literature Page

The Wall Street Journal has a weekly "Review" section which, I believe, is in the Saturday/weekend edition.

For various reasons, I did not see the November 18/19, 2016, issue of The Wall Street Journal until this evening. Wow, the "Review" section must be the Thanksgiving / Christmas edition. It's much thicker (more pages) than usual.

Articles that caught my interest:
  • Monet's Luminous Abyss: Mad Enchantment, by Ross King
  • Charles the Greatest: Charlemagne, by Johannes Fried
  • Hudson River Volley: 1777: Tipping Point at Saratoga, by Dean Snow
  • Dinosaurs, A to Z: The Princeton Field Guide to Dinosaurs, by Gregory S Paul, 
  • The Musings of the Master: Travels by Henry James, and The Daily Henry James, edited by Evely Smalley
  • Kafka's Own Metamorphosis: Kafka: The Early Years, by Reinter Stach; and, IS That Kafka? 99 Finds, by Reiner Stach
  • How To Speak Oyster: The Essential Oyster, by Rowan Jacobsen
  • A House at the End of the World: Orion on the Dunes, by Daniel G. Payne
  • The Flavors of an Empire: Taste of Persia, by Naomi Duguid
  • Astro Teller: the head of Alphabet's X on embracing creativity and accepting failure
Each one of these is personal for me.
  • Monet? My introduction to art. Currently a special Monet exhibit at the Kimball Museum, Ft Worth; the exhibit here and in San Francisco, only. We have seen it three times (most recently yesterday with the granddaughters). We will see it at least once more before the exhibit ends in mid-January, 2017.
  • Dinosaurs? Childhood fascination. I bought the Gregory S Paul field guide last year when we visited the Perot Museum in Dallas.
  • Henry James? Had a woman in Yorkshire not mentioned Henry James in passing, I may never have discovered him. If I had, he would not have been as memorable without Colleen mentioning him.
  • Hudson River Volley? I just completed a book on the "history" of Benedict Arnold; until I read that book, I never had a good feeling for the traitor.
  • Kafka? Our older daughter and I have a long history of Kafka going back to the days when she was Kafka in high school and we were exploring Kafka-esque alleys in Germany.
  • Oysters? Hardly needs explanation.
  • A house at the end of the world: it turns out this is about the Nauset Beach on the Cape Cod National Seashore, a place I visited numerous times between 2009 and 2013, and one of my favorite places in the world.
I will read them over the long weekend.

We've Had Two Lost Decades -- Will The Next Ten Years Be America's Decade? -- November 23, 2016

Wow -- GDP Now:

Latest forecast: 3.6 percent — November 23, 2016.
The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2016 is 3.6 percent on November 23, unchanged from November 17.

The contributions of real equipment investment and real inventory investment to fourth-quarter growth increased from 0.32 percentage points to 0.38 percentage points and 0.50 percentage points to 0.56 percentage points, respectively, after this morning's advance durable manufacturing report from the U.S. Census Bureau.
The forecast of fourth-quarter real residential investment growth declined from 10.8 percent to 7.1 percent after yesterday's existing-home sales release from the National Association of Realtors and this morning’s releases on new single-family home sales, prices, and construction costs from the Census Bureau.
Deere Hits All-Time High
Jumps 10% Today

At $101.10, up $9.08 today.

The Political Page

From twitter: Trump nemesis Mark Cuban quietly meets with Steve Bannon. At one time Mark Cuban supported Trump and at one time Cuban even said he would be willing to take job in Trump's administration.

The Hare With Amber Eyes: A Family's Century of Art and Loss
 Edmund de Waal, 
c. 2010

Preface, from Charles Swann, Cities of the Plain, Marcel Prout:
Even when one is no longer attached to things,
it's still something to have been attached to them;
because it was always for reasons which other people didn't grasp.

Now that I'm a little too weary to live with other people,
these old feelings,
so personal and individual,
that I had in the past, seem to me --
it's the mania of all collectors -- very precious.

I open my heart to myself like a sort of vitrine,
and examine one by one all those love affairs
of which the world can know nothing.

And of this collection to which I'm now much more attached than to my others,
I say to myself,
rather as Mazarin said of his books,
but in fact without the least distress,
that it will be very tiresome to have to leave it all.
That's the way I feel about Yorkshire, England.
I am still attached to Yorkshire,
for reasons I don't understand,
and for reasons other people will never grasp.

Now that I'm a little too weary to live with other people,
these old feelings,
so personal and individual,
these old feelings,
that I had in the past,
these old feelings
remain, still, very precious.

And of this collection of feelings about Yorkshire,
I'm more attached than ever.
I say to myself, unlike Marcel,
that I say it with distress,
that it will be impossible to ever forget her. 

CLR's Breakeven Drops Below $40; Top 5 Energy Deals Of 2016 -- Zacks

Continental Resources: may reach breakeven at under $40 oil. Over at SeekingAlpha:
  • Continental's oil breakeven point has been reduced to an estimated $38
  • due to reduced operating costs and improved capital efficiency, combined with lowered base decline rates
  • exit rate for 2016 is expected to fall only 5% to 10% below 2015's exit rate with $1.1 billion in capital expenditures
  • exit rate for 2017 can probably be flat compared to 2016's exit rate with under $1 billion in capital expenditures
  • decreasing breakeven points will likely prevent oil from surging too much higher. US production growth would likely be strong at $60+ oil
Remember: some time ago, Whiting told its employees it could make money at $26/bbl or some such ridiculous number.

Top Five Energy Deals of 2016 -- Zacks

Link here.

1. General Electric - Baker Hughes, $30 billion; a new company to be spun-off from GE
2 Spectra - Enbridge, $28 billion; true merger; Enbridge (57% ownership); Spectra (43% ownership)
3. Sunoco Logistics - Energy Transfer, $21.3 billion
4. TransCanada-Columbia Pipeline, $13 billion
5. FMC Technologies - Technip; Houston-based FMC, a major underwater energy equpment maker; Technip, Paris-based, offshore oil and gas field developer

Global Warming
Climate Change
Extreme Weather
Ice Age Now

Bloomberg: Siberian snow theory points to an early and cold winter in US. Northeast natural gas supply and delivery eyed. 

Wells I No Longer Follow -- November 23, 2016

This is simply some housekeeping. Nothing new here. This has all been posted before. The page where this came from was getting too long. These are wells that I was watching for some reason or other; once I saw what I wanted to see, I "closed" them out.

Page 3

April 10, 2016: long-reach, under-the-water, CLR wells, #32605 and #32606. Will come off confidential list February 23, 2017. Updates here, 3/19. 

February 18, 2016: in today's daily active report this well was transferred from WW Oilfield Services to Fury Energy:
  • 649, 417, Fury Energy, LLC, Furlong Syverson 4, Tioga, a Madison well, t8/54; cum 181K 5/93; this is a SWD but want to see if anything changes;

October 18, 2015: follow-up production jump on #16510. There was what appears to be a halo effect in June, 2015, but there are still three more wells waiting to be fracked; it will be interesting to see how fracking these three north/south wells affect the double-lateral #16510. This well, #16510, needs to remain on the list of wells that need to be followed up (March 27, 2016). Follow-up here. 3/19.

June 11, 2015: is MRO drilling laterals in the Powell well / Tyler formation?

April 13, 2015: are new flaring rules the "long pole in the tent"?

February 17, 2015: this well was IA/SI (inactive/shut-in) the day it came off the confidential list; during the slump in oil prices; developed a hole in liner during stim ops; CLR may come back to re-drill:
  • 27563, PA/420, CLR, Holstein Federal 1-25H, Elm Tree, when I checked May 5, 2015, the frack data showed only one frack stage; the well was shown as active, having produced nicely in February and March, 2015, but no test date; was it fracked? Update: test date 2/11/15; cum 32K 5/15; only 10 days in 6/15; none in 7/15 or 8/15; update here; remains PA, 8/16;
August 17, 2014:
  • 26738, 103, Hess, Ti-Wao-157-95-14H-1, Tioga, t7/14; cum 37K 3/19; this is a Lodgepole well; Hess will come back to this well on/about May 7, 2014, to drill this well to TD of 13,693 feet; and then complete it with a multi-stage acid frack; the company will core the upper and the middle Lodgepole; the company will also core the upper, middle, and lower Bakken; the company will core the 1st and 2nd benches of the Three Forks, and the upper 30' of the Three Forks third bench; 640-acre spacing for a Lodgepole well. [Updates: 12/14: no production since early September, 2014; Update: actually produced 60 bbls in one day in April, 2015; also noted that well is now IA (previously TA); 6/15: completed] [Update, 9/15 -- well back on-line and producing.] I track this well here: link. A lousy well.
October 3, 2016: new lease on life?
  • 17850,487, EOG, Cottonwood 2-35H (1 sec). Wells have not been particularly good in this field; Cottonwood, t8/09; cum 137K 11/16;inactive as of 9/15; back on status as of 7/16; cum 135K 9/16; this is interesting: in an earlier sundry form, dated April 28, 2016, EOG planned to plug and abandon this well, saying that an equipment failure made it too expensive to bring it back on-line. Then a sundry form received August 3, 2016, suggested that a workover rig had brought this well back to life. Production doubled; from 500 bbls/month to 1,000 bbls/month. NDIC map suggests this horizontal is actually in Alger oil field, not Cottonwood.
November 28, 2016: there are nine wells on the Rath Federal pad; it looks like one well was directional before the KOP while the others were vertical; when they come off confidential list check the depths of the nine wells; they all pretty much end at the same western point. Update: probably just an anomaly on the graphic; no big deal; TD's all make sense.

January 29, 2017, original post undated:
 Rawson oil field wells:
  • 21825, IA/984, Nine Point Energy/Triangle, Gullickson Trust 150-101-36-25-1H, Rawson, t6/12; cum 171K 10/18; 14 days in December, 2014; and, 14 days in January, 2015; 22 days 9/15; inactive as of the end of 3/16; back on-line 5/16;
  • 21826, PNC, Triangle, Gullickson Trust 150-101-36-25-2H, Rawson, renewed Nov 1, 2013; LOC as of 11/2/15
  • 21827, 1,173, Nine Point Energy/Triangle, Gullickson Trust 150-101-36-25-3H, Rawson, t6/12; cum 189K 10/18;
  • 21828, PNC, Triangle, Gullickson Trust 150-101-36-25-4H, Rawson, renewed Nov 1, 2013; LOC as of 11/2/15
December 16, 2014: noted this monster well has been inactive for past few months --
  • 18973, 2,579, QEP/Helis, State 1-16/21H, Blue Buttes, t10/10; cum 690K 11/20; inactive 4/14; looks like it might be back on line as of 10/14; yes, now shown to be active, 12/14; huge jump in production in 12/14; coming back on line after permission to commingle production from multiple wells; large production number could be due to 'mis-allocation' during early commingling; random update, March 20, 2015; random update, May 7, 2015; major update here, December 15, 2015; same link, updated August 7, 2016; updated here, October 22, 2016 -- is a neighboring refrack responsible for this? Check up on #28168 -- QEP says it plans to re-complete. API: 33-053-05828. Update: it was fracked a second time, summer, 2015; see this post. Can be closed out in month or two after we see production for a few months.
July 15, 2016: the 8-well Skarston pad plus the oldest ninth Skarston well in immediate area. It sounds like Statoil asked for a waiver for delayed production until 4/16. Check back in two to three months (9/16) to see if all wells back on status. Mostly curious if #21664 comes back on status. Reader has asked me to keep track of these wells; reader is curious if/when they come back on status. Update, #21664 appears to be back on status as of 10/16; some production 10/16 and 11/16. It appears that all Skarston well at the link were back on status, autumn, 2016.  Updated, 10/18 -- incredible story -- see the oldest Skarston well update. Truly amazing. See this update.

August 24, 2015: 20085, the "old" Nelson well, huge uptick in production

December 8, 2015: check halo effect on these SHD wells in Clarks Creek in the next few months. Updated February 3, 2016; still needs updating; many wells have gone to "inactive" status. Update: November 23, 2016: all are back on active status, now. Not particularly good wells, yet. July 10, 2020: worst group of wells ever seen; 

October 3, 2016: a great well taken off line in August, 2016:
20210, 803, CLR, Whitman 2-34H, Oakdale, Bakken, s1/11; t9/11; AL; cum 1.730951 million bbls 5/20; 24 stages; 2.4 million lbs; middle Bakken; runs south; 4 section spacing; this is an incredible well; still 19,000 bbls in October, 2015; off-line all of 8/16; back on-line September, 2016; updated here; see this post, 3/19; something doesn't add up.
March 19, 2015: update here, May 22, 2016. Lots of activity in this area; look for halo effect after 3/16; I didn't see any halo effect, but there are some incredible wells in this area;
  • 21963, 4,447, Bruin/HRC, Fort Berthold 148-95-26A-35-2H, Eagle Nest, Three Forks, originally 1280-acre spacing; changed to 4 sections, original post here; t3/15; cum 532K 5/20;Update 5/15: 49 stages, 5.1 million lbs; now as of 3/16, taken off-line; now back on status; incredible well; still producing 4,000 bbls/month, 3/19;
February 14, 2015: why was this one inactive; now back on status, as of 7/15.
  • 20272, 800, Hess/Tracker, SC-Norman 154-98-3130H-1, 36 stages, 4.4 million lbs, t10/11; cum 288K 5/20; went inactive 6/14; back on status, 7/15; update here; it's interesting to see amount of flaring; other wells around it with much less flaring [October 18, 2015]; still flaring a lot (11/15); see possible halo effect for this well at this link; still flaring a lot, 9/16; no flaring 11/16; still flaring a lot, 5/20;
January 13, 2016: check out the Birdbear later --
  • 11698, 502, BTA, 9210 JV-P Federal DM 1, Beaver Creek, Red River, t1/86; cum 545K 5/20; in early 2014 this well was re-entered and tested the Nisku (Birdbear); Birdbear: 6/14; spacing 320 acres; no production noted; production steady at about 750 bbls/month from the Red River, 3/19;
April 6, 2016: BR is now drilling another lateral from this site. #20336; results now posted, November 23, 2016. No impact, t8/11; cum 201K 5/20;

November 7, 2015: check out production profile of first well at this post, and maybe the whole post. Updated, July 30, 2016. We now know why this page caused so much confusion. I might check it one more time and then remove it from "things that need to be followed up." #26485, Hawkeye 16-21 3H, Statoil, in Todd oil field; nice well, now, 3/19; 

January 5, 2016: this well on-line for only 18 days in 11/15:
  • 18576, 1,190, BR, Concord 24-10H, Little Knife, t2/11; cum 232K 5/20; only 18 days in 11/15; back on line until 8/16 when only 12 days in that month; struggling, 3/19;
March 10, 2016: we may not know the answer for a year or so, but it will be interesting to see which way the horizontals run from this 6-well pad; their names suggest three will run east-west; three run north to south; all horizontals in this area currently run north/south, so wells running east-west would seem to be highly unusual. See March 16, 2016, entry above; same thing. Update, November 23, 2016: these wells all run north-south.

Update On A Well That BR Re-Entered; Drilled New Lateral; Jumps From 800 Bbls/Month To 20,000 Bbls/Month -- November 23, 2016

This well has "repercussions" for the entire Bakken

See this original note at this post.

From an earlier post:
From an October 28, 2015, posting, with updates:

A Burlington Resources well was permitted for re-entry:
  • 20336, re-entry/1,162, BR, Sun Notch 43-32H-R/Sun Notch 43-32H, Sand Creek, McKenzie County, 20 stages, 2.1 million lbs; target zone, 20-feet; ; t9/11; cum 41K 2/16;
  • I track the Sand Creek oil field here;  
  • of interest, this well, #20336, was the very first permit I posted following the original post, back in 2011
  • note: this well is still listed as having no pump; on "F" status 
  • note: this well's status is now LOC;
  • there is nothing in the file report that suggests there was any specific problem with drilling or fracking and yet this is a very, very poor well
  • it was originally fracked with 20 stages; 2.1 million lbs proppant
  • I assume they are going back into re-frack, possibly target a different zone, but I don't think a permit is needed for simple "re-working" (although I don't know)
November 23, 2016: It looks like the well has been successfully re-entered and a second lateral has been drilled. Note the "revised IP":
  • 20336, re-entry/1,162, BR, Sun Notch 43-32H-R/Sun Notch 43-32H, Sand Creek, McKenzie County, 20 stages, 2.1 million lbs; target zone, 20-feet; t9/11; cum 126K 11/16; the second lateral was fracked with 32 stages, 4.25 million lbs; tested 5/20/16, with a "revised" IP of 2,204 bbls.
Note: not on a pump yet. 

Now, look at the production from this well. Compare monthly production in 5/15 (less than a thousand bbls) to production after the new lateral drilled, 7/16 (20,000 bbls), and, of course, also note the amount of natural gas (MCF) which also adds significantly to boe: 

 Monthly Production Data:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Drilling plan for second lateral:

Location of the well under discussion:

Tale Of Two Cities, Thanksgiving, 2016

World's worst traffic jam, the I-405 through Los Angeles metropolitan area, the day before Thanksgiving, 2016:

Meanwhile in the DFW, Texas, area:

You Know That We Can't Just Drill Our Way To Lower Gas Prices -- President Obama

From the Obama administration 24 minutes ago, US gasoline prices 2nd-lowest in eight years, about the average time of a presidential two-term administration:

From Mr Obama four years ago, 2012:

Three years later, 2015: What the North Dakota Bakken looked like on January 15, 2015, 156 rigs:

On September 18, 2014, there were a record 200 active rigs in North Dakota, proving that, yes, one can drill one's way to cheaper gasoline. 

Fathomless ignorance.

91% Of Global SmartPhone Profits? To Apple; Wireless Charging Is Almost Here For Smart Phones -- November 23, 2016

The Apple Page

Skating to where the puck will be: next year Apple will introduce wireless charging for the iPhone. Wow. Apple will switch to an all-glass casing for next year's entire iPhone line-up in order to support wireless charging, with Pegatron being the exclusive supplier of the wireless charger.

iPhone generated record-breaking profits lat quarter despite continues sales decline. Apple captured a record 91% of profits in the worldwide smartphone market in the third quarter, or $8.5 billion of the overall $9 billion in profits recorded by all vendors combined. Look at the global smartphone operating profit share. The Apple numbers are incredible:

Look at these numbers (what surprises me most? the answer below the graphic):

Operating Profit
Operating Profit Share
$8.5 billion
$0.2 billion
0.2 billion
0.2 billion
0.2 billion
$9.4 billion

Other than Apple, do you even recognize any of those names? I did not. Maybe Huawei.

The Political Page

In the past, when a politician changed his position, it was called a "flip-flop." Now it's called a "pivot."

Getting Ready For Christmas

Huge Natural Gas Pipeline Changes In Texas On The Horizon; Prince Salman's Plan Is A Joke -- Observer -- November 23, 2016

From twitter
U.S. commercial crude oil inventories for week ending 11/18/16 DOWN 1.3 MMbbl, refinery utilization= 90.8%
US Ambassador to the UN: Governor of South Carolina.

Trump rally / MSNBC: long discussion at MSNBC on Dow hitting all-time record; hitting 19,000 yesterday. And get this: both Dow 30 and WTI slightly up in pre-market futures. Markets will be closed tomorrow.

Trump rally: Warren Buffett sees $7 $8 $11 billion bump on Donald Trump win. Make America great. Buffett, as you may recall, was very, very dismissive of Donald Trump and of a Trump presidency.

Trump / media: journalists seem to be falling all over themselves reporting how Trump seems "so much better" than what they saw in the campaign.

Update on Kurdistan: update here.

The Honeymoon Is Over

Saudi Arabia: honeymoon is over for new Saudi leader as reform pain kicks in.  
The kingdom ison the brink of its first non-oil sector recession in three decades.
Under, Mohammed bin Salman, the 31-year-old’s stewardship, the Middle East’s largest economy has plunged to the brink of its first non-oil sector recession for three decades. Unpaid government invoices have savaged business confidence; cuts to public sector workers’ benefits have hit consumer spending; and Saudi Arabia’s expensive intervention in Yemen has cost lives and triggered international opprobrium.
The honeymoon is over for Prince Salman.
The government this month set aside $27bn to settle some of its debts to private sector companies, belatedly responding to the fact that delayed payments have made it hard for contractors such as Binladin Group and Oger, large construction companies, to pay staff and creditors on time. Officials privately acknowledge it was a mistake to withhold payments given the knock-on effect it has on a state dependent companies that have been starved of new contracts.
The Prince Salman plan:
The sense of drift in the economic reform plan comes amid rising popular disapproval of the foreign consultants — such as McKinsey, Boston Consulting Group and PwC — that have been drafted in to reshape the country.

“Vision 2030 is a joke,” says one veteran Saudi observer. “When people attack McKinsey, that’s a proxy attack on the man who brought them,” he says, referring to Prince Mohammed.

McKinsey responded to the criticism last week in a rare statement in Arabic in which it denied it had produced the Vision 2030 document.

The transformation plan identifies 543 initiatives across 24 ministries and government bodies to implement this year that will cost Riyadh $72bn. But government advisers say the plan’s budget is likely to be slashed by around 30 to 40 per cent.

One ministerial employee who submitted a budget for his initiative in March has been asked to submit alternative plans with cuts of up to 50 per cent. He is still waiting for the final allocation, pushing implementation way into 2017.

“I don’t think I will hang around, time to go back to the private sector,” he says.
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

Active Rigs3665191185183

RBN Energy: what happens when Texas becomes a net natural gas demand region.
Some 3.2 Bcf/d of new LNG export capacity will be coming online along Texas’s Gulf Coast over the next two and a half years, and 8 Bcf/d of new natural gas pipeline capacity is under development to transport vast quantities of gas through Texas to the Mexican border.
But while gas-export opportunities abound, Texas gas production is down, mostly due to a big fall-off in Eagle Ford output, so exporters will need to pull gas from as far away as the Marcellus/Utica to meet their fast-growing requirements.
That will flip Texas from a net producing region to a net demand region once when you factor in exports that will flow through the state. This profound shift will put extraordinary pressure on Texas’s unusually complex network of interstate and intrastate pipeline systems, which will need to be reworked and expanded to deal with the new gas-flow patterns.
It also will have a significant effect on regional gas pricing––putting a premium on Texas prices.
One thing that U.S. natural gas producers have to be thankful for this week––and likely for many years into the future ––are the prospects for growing foreign demand for U.S. gas supplies. The potential for piping additional billions of cubic feet a day of Texas, Marcellus/Utica and other gas to Mexico and shipping increasing volumes of super-cooled gas as LNG to South America, Europe, and Asia is good news for gas producers, who need new demand sources to gobble up their product… well, enough Thanksgiving and turkey references­­––you get the idea.

Outside the Monet exhibit at the Kimball Museum in Ft Worth, Texas.