Updates
April 16, 2017: is QEP getting ready to frack some new wells in this area?
May 7, 2015: this "mis-allocation" story gets curiouser and curiouser (see below). The jump in production in December, 2014, for #18973 was attributed to mis-allocation of commingled crude oil production from this pad. Now I see another jump in production in March, 2015. Also note that when #28168 was fracked, only one well was taken off-line ($18973); the other three continued to show production. #28165 has shown minimal production since January, 2015, whereas #18973 has shown a significant jump. Misallocation? Tanks on the pad full? Typing in the lat/long (47.816946, -102.838920) on google maps, one will find an old photo of the pad (just one pumper).
It is time to look at production from all wells on this pad:
#18973:
Pool | Date | Days | BBLS Oil | Runs | BBLS Water | MCF Prod | MCF Sold | Vent/Flare |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BAKKEN | 3-2015 | 31 | 11168 | 11032 | 3505 | 10588 | 9428 | 1081 |
BAKKEN | 2-2015 | 28 | 8865 | 8753 | 4064 | 10435 | 8761 | 1522 |
BAKKEN | 1-2015 | 12 | 4012 | 4099 | 1069 | 2550 | 0 | 2505 |
BAKKEN | 12-2014 | 30 | 12206 | 12061 | 4779 | 14089 | 0 | 13975 |
BAKKEN | 11-2014 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
BAKKEN | 10-2014 | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
#28165:
Pool | Date | Days | BBLS Oil | Runs | BBLS Water | MCF Prod | MCF Sold | Vent/Flare |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BAKKEN | 3-2015 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
BAKKEN | 2-2015 | 1 | 584 | 700 | 182 | 714 | 600 | 104 |
BAKKEN | 1-2015 | 13 | 8815 | 8832 | 3098 | 9210 | 0 | 9112 |
BAKKEN | 12-2014 | 23 | 12088 | 12166 | 5019 | 14246 | 0 | 14133 |
BAKKEN | 11-2014 | 27 | 21431 | 21291 | 12279 | 25501 | 0 | 25342 |
BAKKEN | 10-2014 | 31 | 5959 | 5877 | 6326 | 9891 | 0 | 9854 |
#28166:
Pool | Date | Days | BBLS Oil | Runs | BBLS Water | MCF Prod | MCF Sold | Vent/Flare |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BAKKEN | 3-2015 | 31 | 19987 | 19764 | 5595 | 23128 | 20622 | 2365 |
BAKKEN | 2-2015 | 20 | 16841 | 16922 | 4590 | 20901 | 17560 | 3051 |
BAKKEN | 1-2015 | 31 | 28058 | 27941 | 9067 | 34444 | 0 | 34133 |
BAKKEN | 12-2014 | 29 | 24147 | 24258 | 8581 | 31175 | 0 | 30949 |
BAKKEN | 11-2014 | 30 | 38553 | 38375 | 25356 | 59651 | 0 | 59364 |
BAKKEN | 10-2014 | 31 | 16130 | 15909 | 8266 | 23767 | 0 | 2366 |
#28167:
Pool | Date | Days | BBLS Oil | Runs | BBLS Water | MCF Prod | MCF Sold | Vent/Flare |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BAKKEN | 3-2015 | 22 | 20286 | 20075 | 4493 | 22698 | 20234 | 2321 |
BAKKEN | 2-2015 | 18 | 17932 | 18077 | 2802 | 21861 | 18362 | 3191 |
BAKKEN | 1-2015 | 31 | 33905 | 33868 | 5942 | 41700 | 0 | 41324 |
BAKKEN | 12-2014 | 29 | 37980 | 38041 | 6000 | 47603 | 0 | 47247 |
BAKKEN | 11-2014 | 25 | 49630 | 49395 | 10433 | 60573 | 0 | 60204 |
BAKKEN | 10-2014 | 31 | 20395 | 20116 | 8041 | 31493 | 0 | 31367 |
#28168, which is said to be IA -- no production since the middle of January, 2015.
- 28168, 649, QEP, State 3-16-21BH, Grail, middle Bakken; 36 stages; 3.6 million lbs: t11/11/14;
Pool | Date | Days | BBLS Oil | Runs | BBLS Water | MCF Prod | MCF Sold | Vent/Flare |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BAKKEN | 3-2015 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
BAKKEN | 2-2015 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
BAKKEN | 1-2015 | 14 | 1102 | 1126 | 940 | 1379 | 0 | 1367 |
BAKKEN | 12-2014 | 22 | 3393 | 3353 | 2161 | 3087 | 0 | 3055 |
BAKKEN | 11-2014 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
BAKKEN | 10-2014 | 19 | 1634 | 1612 | 1324 | 308 | 0 | 29 |
Original Post
This will be a long post, but it might serve to enlighten us about the Bakken.
It involves five QEP wells on one pad sited in the Grail oil field. There seems to be a bit of "confusion" with regard to the scout ticket for the first well on this pad; the scout ticket says #18973 is a Blue Buttes well; it is not; it is a Grail well just like the others.
The "original" State well on this pad was drilled/tested back in 2010 -- that's five years ago.
Then, in late 2014 (October, 2014, or thereabouts) four more State wells on this pad were drilled/fracked tested.
Let's look at the four most recent wells first and their production profiles:
- 28165, 1,444, QEP, State 1-16-21BH, Grail (scout ticket), runs south into the Grail (GIS map server), middle Bakken, 32 stages, 5.4 million lbs, t10/14; cum 42K 1/15:
Pool | Date | Days | BBLS Oil | Runs | BBLS Water | MCF Prod | MCF Sold | Vent/Flare |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BAKKEN | 1-2015 | 13 | 8815 | 8832 | 3098 | 9210 | 0 | 9112 |
BAKKEN | 12-2014 | 23 | 12088 | 12166 | 5019 | 14246 | 0 | 14133 |
BAKKEN | 11-2014 | 27 | 21431 | 21291 | 12279 | 25501 | 0 | 25342 |
- 28166, 2,204, QEP, State 2-16-21BH, Grail (scout ticket), runs south into the Grail (GIS map server), middle Bakken, 33 stages; 8.6 million lbs; t10/14; cum 107K 1/15:
Pool | Date | Days | BBLS Oil | Runs | BBLS Water | MCF Prod | MCF Sold | Vent/Flare |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BAKKEN | 1-2015 | 31 | 28058 | 27941 | 9067 | 34444 | 0 | 34133 |
BAKKEN | 12-2014 | 29 | 24147 | 24258 | 8581 | 31175 | 0 | 30949 |
BAKKEN | 11-2014 | 30 | 38553 | 38375 | 25356 | 59651 | 0 | 59364 |
BAKKEN | 10-2014 | 31 | 16130 | 15909 | 8266 | 23767 | 0 | 23668 |
- 28167, 2,761, QEP, State 2-16-21TH, Grail (scout ticket), runs south into the Grail (GIS map server), Three Forks B1, 39 stages; 9.9 million lbs; t10/14; cum 142K 1/15:
Pool | Date | Days | BBLS Oil | Runs | BBLS Water | MCF Prod | MCF Sold | Vent/Flare |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BAKKEN | 1-2015 | 31 | 33905 | 33868 | 5942 | 41700 | 0 | 41324 |
BAKKEN | 12-2014 | 29 | 37980 | 38041 | 6000 | 47603 | 0 | 47247 |
BAKKEN | 11-2014 | 25 | 49630 | 49395 | 10433 | 60573 | 0 | 60204 |
BAKKEN | 10-2014 | 31 | 20395 | 20116 | 8041 | 31493 | 0 | 31367 |
- 28168, 649, QEP, State 3-16-21BH, Grail (scout ticket), runs south into the Grail (GIS map server), middle Bakken, 36 stages; 4.6 million lbs; t12/14; cum 6K 1/15:
Pool | Date | Days | BBLS Oil | Runs | BBLS Water | MCF Prod | MCF Sold | Vent/Flare |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BAKKEN | 1-2015 | 14 | 1102 | 1126 | 940 | 1379 | 0 | 1367 |
BAKKEN | 12-2014 | 22 | 3393 | 3353 | 2161 | 3087 | 0 | 3055 |
BAKKEN | 11-2014 | 0 | -1 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
BAKKEN | 10-2014 | 19 | 1634 | 1612 | 1324 | 308 | 0 | 298 |
Several story lines among those four wells. We will come back to those story lines later.
But first, we will return to the oldest well on that pad. This well runs south into the Grail oil field (GIS map server):
- 18973, 2,579, QEP/Helis, State 1-16/21H, Blue Buttes (scout ticket - a mistake; this is a Grail well), Three Forks; t10/10, cum 484K 1/15; inactive since 4/14; looks like it might be back on line as of 10/14; yes, now shown to be active, 12/14; huge jump in production in 12/14; coming back on line after permission to commingle production from multiple wells; 24 stages; 2.9 million lbs; production profile since January, 2014:
Pool | Date | Days | BBLS Oil | Runs | BBLS Water | MCF Prod | MCF Sold | Vent/Flare |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BAKKEN | 1-2015 | 12 | 4012 | 4099 | 1069 | 2550 | 0 | 2505 |
BAKKEN | 12-2014 | 30 | 12206 | 12061 | 4779 | 14089 | 0 | 13975 |
BAKKEN | 11-2014 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
BAKKEN | 10-2014 | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
BAKKEN | 9-2014 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
BAKKEN | 8-2014 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
BAKKEN | 7-2014 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
BAKKEN | 6-2014 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
BAKKEN | 5-2014 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 231 | 0 | 0 |
BAKKEN | 4-2014 | 25 | 5465 | 5790 | 587 | 408 | 0 | 0 |
BAKKEN | 3-2014 | 31 | 5599 | 5821 | 607 | 2597 | 2176 | 0 |
BAKKEN | 2-2014 | 28 | 4490 | 4158 | 368 | 4632 | 4252 | 0 |
BAKKEN | 1-2014 | 31 | 5299 | 5296 | 487 | 6337 | 5920 | 0 |
Look at the huge jump in production in December, 2014, after being off-line for several months. The well was taken off-line during the period when the four (4) new wells were being drilled / fracked. Don't be misled by the huge decline in the following month; note, the well only produced for 12 days in January, 2015.
Also note: some of the wells were on-line for less than half the month of January, 2015; this must have been an operational decision, not due to the weather, because the other wells on the pad were on-line the full month of January, 2015. A full month of production at the same rate seen for 12 days would have been over 10,000 bbls in January, 2015.
The well file report is not helpful in answering that question, as far as I can tell. There are three possibilities: a) an error due to mis-allocation due to commingling with other wells into tank battery; b) halo effect of new fracking; or, c) re-fracked.
Based on data of the production / runs from the other wells, I rule out (a) -- mis-allocation.
That leaves a halo effect or a re-frack. Since there is no mention in the well file report of a request to re-frack or a notification to re-frack (although I may have missed it, or the paperwork may be still be in the mail), it appears the jump in production is due to the halo effect of new fracking.
I was the first non-advertising supported blog that opined that fracking was effective out to 500 feet (radially) -- at best. Interestingly enough, the distance between the old TF well and the new TF well is no more than 528 feet at most spots along the two horizontals.
So, what accounts for the huge jump in production for the older well (#18973)? Again, there was not a huge decline the following month; the well was only on-line for twelve (12) days in January.
Re-cap:
- 18973: Three Forks, 24 stages; 2.9 million lbs; 2,579,
- 28165: middle Bakken, 32 stages, 5.4 million lbs; 1,444,
- 28166: middle Bakken, 33 stages; 8.6 million lbs; 2,204,
- 28167: Three Forks B1, 39 stages; 9.9 million lbs; 2,761,
- 28168: middle Bakken, 36 stages; 4.6 million lbs; 649,
I hope I'm not making a mistake here, or that there isn't a typo, but I cannot explain the huge difference in the IPs between #28168 (middle Bakken) and the other three middle Bakken (and the two TF wells for that matter). One has to assume the geology was identical. It is possible the seam was "thinner" but highly doubtful. We don't have the geologist's report yet, but the percent of time the bore is in the seam is critical.
Total production to date is not comparing apples to oranges exactly due to slight difference in number of months of production, but there is a huge difference in total production for the new Three Forks well compared to the three middle Bakken wells.
I haven't done any other analysis of Three Forks vs middle Bakken wells in the Grail oil field. Could be interesting.
Again, in a long note like this there will be typographical errors. There may be factual errors. There could be some whoppers. No errors were done on purpose and will, of course, be corrected when found. I have not proofread the post yet but will eventually get around to it. If this information is important to you, go to the source, such as the NDIC or a landman.
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