Locator: 48410B.
The map:
Monday, January 27, 2025
A Look At Case #31503 -- Hearing Dockets -- January 27, 2025
Locator: 48409B.
From the February dockets.
The NDIC hearing dockets are tracked here.
As usual this is done very quickly and using shorthand for my benefit. There will be factual and typographical errors on this page. Do not quote me on any of this. It's for my personal use to help me better understand the Bakken. Do not read it. If you do happen to read it, do not make any investment, financial, job, relationship, or travel plans based on anything you read here or think you may have read here. If this stuff is important to you, and I doubt that it is, but if it is, go to the source. These are cases, not permits.
Wednesday, February 26, 2025
Link here.
14 pages.
The case:
- 31503, BR, HaystackButte-Bakken, seven wells, McKenzie County.
The map:
The well of interest:
- 21058, 1,128, BR, Logan 24-8H, Haystack, t2/12; cum 114K 11/24;
XTO Activity In Hofflund Oil Field -- January 27, 205
Locator: 48408B.
From today's daily activity report and my comments:
Six new permits, #41549 - #41554, inclusive:
- Operator: XTO
- Field: Hofflund (Williams)
- Comments:
- XTO has permits for six HBU Baptiste Federal wells, SWSE 11-154-95,
- to be sited 1315 FSL and 1600/1780 FEL
- spacing unit: HBU -- unitized Hofflund oil field
- there's already one well located their, on confidential list:
- 40921, XTO, HBU Baptiste 34X-11A, 1315 FSL and 1720 FEL;
- looking at the map, it appears they horizontals will run south; sited in section 11, running into sections 14 and 23; the question is whether they might run farther south into section 26
- #17491 is in section 35 and runs west-east, so it's unlikely the Baptiste Federal wells will run that far south; so for now, spacing unit: section 14 / 23 / 26 - 154-95, and under the river. So, we'll see.
- as long as we're talking about it, there's a seven-well XTO HBU Shoshoni Federal pad to the west, sited in section 15-154-95; it's hard to say whether they will run west-east (unlikely) or also south toward (and under) the river (more likely
- just north of that section line, one section
farther west, there's another pad (#41038, XTO HBU Lizette); then
another pad farther west (#36174, XTO Frisinger); and, then,one section
west of that, yet another pad (#37783, XTO Roust) (there may be some
content / typographical errors there)
- bottom line: lots of future XTO activity in this area, just north of the river, about six miles east of Williston
Maybe some day I'll get back to these maps. But too tired to do much more than this tonight.
The maps:
XTO With Six New Permits And Ten "Permit Reinstatements" -- Sixteen "New" Permits For XTO -- January 27, 2025
Locator: 48407B.
WTI: $73.17.
Active rigs: 31.
Six new permits, #41549 - #41554, inclusive:
- Operator: XTO
- Field: Hofflund (Williams)
- Comments:
- XTO has permits for six HBU Baptiste Federal wells, SWSE 11-154-95,
- to be sited 1315 FSL and 1600/1780 FEL
- spacing unit: HBU -- unitized Hofflund oil field
- there's already one well located their, on confidential list:
- 40921, XTO, HBU Baptiste 34X-11A, 1315 FSL and 1720 FEL;
- looking at the map, it appears they horizontals will run south; sited in section 11, running into sections 14 and 23; the question is whether they might run farther south into section 26
- #17491 is in section 35 and runs west-east, so it's unlikely the Baptiste Federal wells will run that far south; so for now, spacing unit: section 14 / 23 / 26 - 154-95, and under the river. So, we'll see.
- as long as we're talking about it, there's a seven-well XTO HBU Shoshoni Federal pad to the west, sited in section 15-154-95; it's hard to say whether they will run west-east (unlikely) or also south toward (and under) the river (more likely
- just north of that section line, one section farther west, there's another pad (#41038, XTO HBU Lizette); then another pad farther west (#36174, XTO Frisinger); and, then,one section west of that, yet another pad (#37783, XTO Roust) (there may be some content / typographical errors there)
- bottom line: lots of future XTO activity in this area, just north of the river, about six miles east of Williston
Permit reinstatements (10):
- XTO: six Hartel permits, SWSW 23-150-98, Siverston; and four Henry Federal permits, lot 1, section 4-149-97; North Fork.
Two producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
- 40642, 2,379, MRO, Thornton 31-26H, Dunn County;
- 40779, 2,367, MRO, McMillan 14-23H, Dunn County;
Personal Monthly Utility Bill -- Electricity -- January 25, 2025
Locator: 48406ELECTRICITY.
Our monthly utility bill. We only have electricity, no natural gas.
Up until about a year ago, I worked very, very hard at conserving electricity. No longer. About a year ago, except for drying clothes at peak energy demand in the summer, I no longer care about our use of electricity. As a wag, I suppose, our monthly electricity bills have increased about 10%. An average "shoulder" month (spring, autumn) probably went from around $85 to $95?
This was a very cold month, but it turned out to be almost identical to the statement one year ago. Amazing how similar the two statements were, December, 2024, and December, 2025.
One year ago:
NDIC Hearing Dockets -- February, 2025
Locator: 48405B.
February, 2025, hearing dockets.
The NDIC hearing dockets are tracked here.
As usual this is done very quickly and using shorthand for my benefit. There will be factual and typographical errors on this page. Do not quote me on any of this. It's for my personal use to help me better understand the Bakken. Do not read it. If you do happen to read it, do not make any investment, financial, job, relationship, or travel plans based on anything you read here or think you may have read here. If this stuff is important to you, and I doubt that it is, but if it is, go to the source. These are cases, not permits.
Wednesday, February 26, 2025
Link here.
14 pages.
These are cases, not permits.
The cases:
- 31535, CLR, Corinth-Bakken, seven wells, Williams County.
- 31536, CLR, Upland-Bakken, seven wells, Divide County.
- 31537, Hunt, Blue. Ridge-Bakken, four wells, Williams County.
- 31538, Ragnar Exploration, pooling.
- 31539, EOG, pooling.
- 31540, CLR, pooling.
- 31541, CLR, pooling.
- 31542, CLR, pooling.
- 31543, CLR, pooling.
- 31544, CLR, pooling.
- 31545, CLR, pooling.
- 31546, CLR, pooling.
- 31547, Hunt, pooling.
- 31548, XTO, commingling.
- 31549, Zavanna, pooling.
- 31550, Zavanna, pooling.
- 31551, Zavanna, pooling.
- 31552, McKenzie Energy Partners, SWD.
- 31553, Koda Resourdes, SWD.
Thursday, February 27, 2025
Link here.
7 pages.
These are cases, not permits.
The cases:
- 31503, BR, Haystack Butte-Bakken, seven wells, McKenzie County.
- 31504, Hess, Alger-Bakken, five wells, Mountrail County.
- 31505, Kraken, New Home-Bakken, five wells, Williams County.
- 31506, Enerplus, South Fork-Bakken, one well, Dunn County.
- 31507, Whiting, Pronghorn-Bakken, three wells, McKenzie County.
- 31508, Oasis, Dore and/or Assiniboine-Bakken, ten wells, McKenzie County.
- 31509, Phoenix, Kittleson Slough-Bakken, two wells, Mountrail County.
- 31510, BR, pooling.
- 31511, BR, commingling.
- 31512, Hess, pooling.
- 31513, Enerplus, pooling.
- 31514, Enerplus, pooling.
- 31515, Whiting, pooling.
- 31516, Oasis, pooling.
- 31517, Oasis, pooling.
- 31518, Oasis, pooling.
- 31519, Oasis, pooling.
- 31520, MRO, commingling.
- 31521, Phoenix Operating, pooling.
- 31522, Phoenix, pooling.
- 31523, Phoenix, pooling.
- 31524, Phoenix, pooling.
- 31525, Phoenix, pooling.
- 31526, Phoenix, pooling.
- 31527, Phoenix, pooling.
- 31528, Phoenix, pooling.
- 31529, Phoenix, pooling.
- 3150, PHoenix, pooling.
- 31531, Phoenix, pooling.
- 31532, Phoenix, pooling.
- 3153, Phoenix, commingling.
- 31534, Phoenix, SWD.
FEMA -- January 27, 2025
Locator: 48404FEMA.
From Bloomberg today:
It’s still unknown who Trump will task with running and possibly reshaping FEMA.
For now, the president has tapped Cameron Hamilton, a former Navy Seal, to temporarily lead the agency, alongside Mary Comans, who has held several key FEMA jobs. Hamilton has some emergency management experience, but he has never overseen the response to large-scale disasters like the wildfires that have ravaged Los Angeles for weeks, destroying more than 15,000 structures and killing at least 28 people.
In fact, over the weekend Trump signed an executive order establishing a "Council" to be led by the Secretary of Defense and the Secretary of Homeland Security to "assess FEMA." From the EO:
The Secretary of Homeland Security and the Secretary of Defense shall serve as Co-Chairs of the Council.
So, I guess we have the one-two punch. Hamilton and Comans in charge of FEMA right now. [Does that mean that FEMA Administrator Deanne Criswell is "out" as the administrator? Yes.]
And Pete Hegseth and Kristi Noem to head the "council."
You know you are in trouble when a government agency's administrator's bio starts out with where the individual went to elementary school:
Criswell attended elementary school in Free Soil, Michigan and was graduated in 1984 from Catholic Central High School in Manistee, Michigan. She then earned a Bachelor of Science in technology education from Colorado State University, a Master of Public Administration from the University of Colorado Denver, and a Master of Arts in homeland security from the Naval Postgraduate School.
Her skill set: fighting fires as a firewoman.
Bloomberg has a long piece -- I would say it's a op-ed and not news -- about how challenging FEMA's job is and then blames much of FEMA's problem on .... climate change. Al Gore first warned us about climate change in 1994 or thereabouts ... so how much has the global temperature changed in 31 years? Fact check: 2025 - 1994 = 31 years.
And that figure assumes the US government is reliable when measuring global temperatures. But 0.2°C over 31 years and that's a significant reason why FEMA's job has been made more difficult? LOL. How about better technology, less regulation, better leadership just for starts.
Wow, this gets tedious. Climate change.
By the way, here in Texas the weather folks give us the temperature rounded to the nearest "one degree," such as 74° or 68° or 92°. They've never given the daily temperature to the nearest tenth (98.5° or 78.3°). And even in medicine, we never gave temperatures to the nearest 100th but when it comes to global / climate warming, we're getting the degree change to the 100th degree (see above: 0.36°) -- such preciseness provides a false sense of accuracy. LOL.
So, we're back to "councils" and "commissions" and "committees" -- I hope this doesn't "foreshadow" a Biden-like administration. Hopefully Cameron Hamilton will appoint a FEMA California czar to monitor the money the US government sends to California and that it reaches the right people sooner than later. I would start with Altadena. I think Newsom will take good care of Pacific Palisades.
****************************
Recipes
Cooking tips.
It appears the key to great cooking? Bacon.
A long, slow cook time — roasting, braising and leisurely poaching— is a simple way to marry contrasting ingredients. This works especially well in recipes that can be prepared ahead of time. Stored for a night or two in the refrigerator, their flavors meld and mellow together.
Classic examples are the slowly cooked pulled pork or the long-simmered pot of chili.
But long and slow simmering also works nicely with root vegetables — especially carrots, parsnips and beets. When poached in a tasty liquid, they become tender and absorb the flavors of the cooking medium. Finally, it’s always a good idea to keep a few store-bought condiments at the ready, including chili oil, curry paste, good vinegar and extra-virgin olive oil, canned anchovies, olives and capers.
Tips:
- when making a soup or stew, begin by sizzling in a little pancetta, bacon or crumbled sausage with the aromatic onions and garlic before adding the remaining ingredients to bolster flavor and body
- add a splash of acid — wine, vinegar, lemon or lime juice — to soups and stews at the last minute. Start slowly, taste, then taste again
- swirl a glug of good olive oil or a few pats of butter into a soup or stew as it comes from the stove to enhance its richness
- shower shredded Parmesan or crumbled feta over pasta, soups, stews and rice dishes to enhance texture
- flavors pale in the refrigerator over time. Season dishes right after reheating, then taste and adjust and taste again
- give dishes of fish, chicken and pork an umami kick with a few chopped anchovies, capers or green or black olives
- miso, when whisked into butter, adds a mysterious, salty, rich touch. Keep it on hand to lift up vegetables, potatoes, pasta and chicken
- good quality frozen vegetables have more flavor and nutrients than their winter-weary fresh counterparts
- toast whole spices such as cumin, coriander, cardamom and fennel, then grind for the most intense taste
- a pinch of red pepper flakes kicks everything up a notch.
Colombia: For The Archives -- January 27, 2025
Locator: 48403COLOMBIA.
Tag: recession.
Media: Fox News broke the story on Colombia first.
The New York Times didn't report the story until several hours later.
The story broke just before the Kansas City Chiefs took the field; Fox News appeared to be the first major news outlet that reported the story.
About a half hour later The NYT reported the story -- the story that Colombia was standing up to Trump.
By the end of the game -- the Chiefs won, 32 - 29 -- Colombia had backed off; Trump won.
Fox News reported it immediately; perhaps even before it was confirmed by a second source.
Incredibly -- well, maybe not so incredibly -- The New York Times did not mention that Colombia had backed off until several hours later, and all TNYT did was change the headline. The NYT story linked to the headline remained the same, except a paragraph was added deep inside the story mentioning in passing that Colombia had backed down.
Recession:
This is really, really cool.
Finally, I can agree with all of those folks predicting a recession for the past four years. We're finally going to see it. It? A recession.
Well, at least we're going to start hearing the word "recession" this week, and, of course, "sticky inflation," which has never gone away.
The US won't actually have a recession this year -- if recession is defined by two consecutive quarters of negative growth -- a negative GDP -- as with a "minus sign" in front of "1% GDP," for example.
But we will have a marked decrease in GDP.
GDPNow was forecasting a wonderful 3% GDP for Biden's last quarter. By the end of the year, GDPNow will be forecasting a 1% GDP growth -- that's not negative but going from 3% to 1% is going to feel like a recession. Price of eggs? Don't even get me started.
The market is ready to sell off; it already has in some sectors. We're going to be told it's all about the Chinese LLM DeepSeek. Okay. But what really got the market spooked over the weekend was the tariff story.
It looks like Trump is serious.
It looks like Trump is sticking to his 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada. His advisors (and he himself) may want tariffs delayed until we see what Mexico and Canada will do with regard to cross-border fentanyl and human trafficking but in the big scheme of things, that's just the flag leading the troops. Fentanyl and human trafficking are the flags leading this "economic war." Does anyone really think the guy who wrote the book on "the art of the deal" is really worried about fentanyl and human trafficking?
The real story is exactly what Trump has been saying for years: he's tired of jobs going to Mexico and he's tired of the trade imbalance with Canada, especially when it comes to cars.
We had three hours of "high anxiety" yesterday when Trump slapped 25% tariffs on Colombia -- say what? Colombia? I can't even identify where Colombia is on a South American map -- I know it's near Central America -- I think it's to the left of Venezuela (politically as well as geographically) — it may be the last SA country bordering Central America -- where the soon-to-be-US-owned Panama Canal is -- going north from the rest of the banana republics -- but a trade war with Colombia? Wow, I hope folks can "diagram" that sentence.
Colombia shot back with 50% tariffs on coffee and flowers.
That's what really spooked investors. Traders weren't spooked. They love this. Buy low, sell high. But I digress.
Back to tariffs.
AOC made it really, really, really worse and really, really, really scary for investors when she said that tariffs on Colombia would increase the cost of coffee at Starbucks and .... drum roll .... the cost of flowers. Wedding season is coming up in June. [One day later, Starbucks reported a great quarter. I have not heard how Dutch tulips are doing.]
The tariffs on Colombia may still be in place -- that was a bit hazy by the end of Trump's round of golf early Sunday evening. I can't make this up. On the third hole Trump got word that Colombia would not allow US military a/c to land in his country carrying hard-working Colombians back to their home country; by the eighth hole the Colombian president said he would send his own "presidential" plane to America to pick up the outcasts -- what was I saying?
Oh, yes, the tariffs on Colombia may still be in place, that was a bit hazy last evening -- SecState Rubio will sort that out this morning, I'm sure -- but to traders and investors that was just a foreshadowing -- my favorite word used in college literature courses -- no, not a foreshadowing of what 25% tariffs on Canada or Mexico would do -- no one really knows what that would do to Canada (I guess Trudeau knows -- that's why he stepped down) -- but the fact that Trump had tariffs on Colombia in less than a New York minute told traders, investors, Xi, Trudeau, and anyone else who was listening now know that he's serious. If Trump wakes up on February 1, 2025, on the bad side of bed: wham! 25% tariffs on Canada. 25% tariffs on Mexico. Add 10% more on Chinese tariffs.
So far he's kept all his campaign promises, except the one about ending the war in Europe, but Putin is eager to talk and Zelenskyy knows he's on borrowed time. The last of Biden's money will run out by the end of the month. By the way, Putin and Trump are up to something big -- really, really big -- and Denmark is worried that Greenland might be collateral damage. LOL.
So, from DeepSeek to Greenland, that's where we are today.
**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief
Reminder
- I am
inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front
of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it
comes to the Bakken.
- I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
- I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.
- See disclaimer. This is not an investment site.
- Disclaimer:
this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial,
job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read
here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly:
there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
- If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
- Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.
- I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.
- And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution.
- I've now added Broadcom to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom.
- Longer version here.
******************
Monday Reading
I'm finally getting around to reading some back-issues of The New Yorker. I'm starting with a very recent one, but not the current issue; the one I'm reading is dated January 20, 2025.
I see I've completed the crossword puzzle, described as "moderately challenging," so there's that.
The opening essay -- always political -- is always a must-read.
This one, again,in the January 20, 2025, issue, is as good as it gets. Really, really good writing.
David Remnick on Trump.
Every bad thing that could be said about Trump was said in this one-and-a-half page essay on The Donald. LOL.
My favorite paragraph:
[Trump] will return to the Oval Office with a résumé enhanced by two impeachments, one judgment of liability for sexual abuse, and a plump cluster of felony convictions. He will take the oath of office next week at the scene of his gravest transgression, his incitement of an insurrection on Capitol Hill.
And with all of that, Trump still defeated Kamala Harris and a war chest of more than one billion dollars and the army of mainstream media, stalwarts of legitimacy, credibility, and fact-checking.
And there's now talk that Ms Harris might run for president again. Okay.
**************
Wow, this is really, really sad. The second essay was on the southern California fires, at the time of the essay, just beginning. I don't think the writer had any idea how bad it would get and it was already really, really bad when he was writing his essay.
This is truly amazing.
All the water in the world would not have solved the problem -- even with all the water in the world, the brush has never been cleared adequately in decades; no roads up and down the valleys for fire trucks; the fire department's budget had been underfunded for decades, and so on -- but it did not help when the hydrants had no water pressure. It turns out that one of three -- yes, one of three -- water reservoirs for the sole purpose of fighting fires had not been filled for years. The mayor made it sound like the reservoir had recently been emptied for repairs. How do you spell obfuscation?
I haven't finished the article but my hunch is Emily Witt won't mention any of these things.
***********************
50 Year Anniversary
SNL
Debuted in 1975
Wow, wow, wow.
Even by The New Yorker's standards this is a long, long essay: "Make Him Laugh: How Lorne Michael's Sensibility Governs 'Saturday Night Live.'"
I've only read the first four pages. It's so good I don't want to race through it. I will save the rest when I can relax and really, really enjoy it. Thank you, Susan Morrison. The essay is in The New Yorker section called "Profiles." "Profiles" is always one of The New Yorker's strengths.
Later: this evening -- the same day I started reading the above article -- I'm watching three hours of "50 Years of SNL Music" on NBC. Truly amazing. The three-hour "documentary" dovetails nicely with the The New Yorker article on Lorne Michaels. If you missed this "documentary" you missed a most amazing "event." Seeing some clips, it's amazing SNL survived fifty years.
1975: I turned 24 that summer. I had completed two years of medical school and not married yet; I had not yet met my future wife. I would meet her in January, 1977. A lot of water has gone under that bridge in the last fifty years. Wow.
***************************
Trying to Write a History of the Jews
An almost-six-page essay on Zora Neal Huston and her long-unpublished novel about her magnificent obsession.
The essay is amazing, and her bio, over at Wiki, is even more amazing.
Oh, and now I see why The New Yorker article is so good. It was written by Louis Menand. Wow, how long has he been writing for The New Yorker.
************************
And Finally This
A review of "Severance," on Apple TV+.
Sounds very, very intriguing. Entering its second season. From the essay:
Bloomberg (the business media outlet) reported that its ten episodes cost upward of twenty million dollars apiece, which would make it one of the priciest TV shows ever produced. Based on the lavish visuals (and on the accounts of rewrites and reshoots), i's a believable figure, though [Ben] Stiller told my colleague Rachel Syme that "any numbers out there are totally inacurate." The result is expansive and aesthetically ambitious: the encroachment of the surreal reaches Lynchian proportions while new subplots take the ensemble -- and the audience -- farther and farther from the nondescript office they've known.
We canceled our Apple TV+ subscription some years ago but I'm tempted to re-subscribe. And it's now easier than ever to subscribe: one can do it through Amazon Prime, if I recall correctly. Yes, that's accurate: I just checked. $9.99 after the free trial. When we last subscribed, it was $6.99. Cancel anytime.
**********************
Southern Surge
Hindsight is 20 / 20.
Handled the right way starting fifty years ago, this whole "southern surge" could have been avoided.
Biden made things worse, and is probably to blame for everything that follows.
How Trump handles this will "determine" whether this turns out badly. Or not. It could be his "Nixon goes to China" moment. I'm not hopeful.
RBN Energy: PADD 1-- January 27, 2025
Locator: 48402B.
Trump: day 7. Yesterday was an incredibly good day for President Trump. He got in a round of golf and schooled Colombia. Which gave him an opportunity to remind folks he's serious about doing the same to Canada and Mexico.
Media: Fox News broke the story on Colombia first.
The New York Times didn't report the story until several hours later. The story broke just before the Kansas City Chiefs took the field; Fox News appeared to be the first major news outlet that reported the story. About a half hour later The NYT reported the story -- the story that Colombia was standing up to Trump. By the end of the game -- the Chiefs won, 32 - 29 -- Colombia had backed off; Trump won. Fox News reported it immediately; perhaps even before it was confirmed by a second source. Incredibly -- well, maybe not so incredibly, The New York Times did not mention that Colombia backed off until several hours later, and all they did was change the headline. The NYT story linked to the headline remained the same, except a paragraph was added deep inside the story mentioning in passing that Colombia had backed down.
Recession:
This is really, really cool.
Finally, I can agree with al of those folks predicting a recession for the past four years. We're finally going to see it. It? A recession.
Well, at least we're going to start hearing the word "recession" this week, and, of course, "sticky inflation," which has never gone away.
The US won't actually have a recession this year -- if recession is defined by two consecutive quarters of negative growth -- a negative GDP -- as with a "minus sign" in front of "1% GDP," for example.
But we will have a marked decreased in GDP.
GDPNow was forecasting a wonderful 3% GDP for Biden's last quarter. By the end of the year, GDPNow will be forecasting a 1% GDP growth -- that's not negative but going from 3% to 1% is going to feel like a recession. Price of eggs? Don't even get me started.
The market is ready to sell off; it already has in some sectors. We're going to be told it's all about the Chinese LLM DeepSeek. Okay. But what really go the market spooked over the weekend was the tariff story.
It looks like Trump is serious.
It looks like Trump is sticking to his 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada. His advisors (and he himself) may want tariffs delayed until we see what Mexico and Canada will do with regard to cross-border fentanyl and human trafficking but in the big scheme of things, that's just the flag leading the troops. Fentanyl and human trafficking are the flags leading this "economic war." Does anyone really think the guy who wrote the book on "the art of the deal" is really worried about fentanyl and human trafficking?
The real story is exactly what Trump has been saying for years: he's tired of jobs going to Mexico and he's tired of the trade imbalance with Canada, especially when it comes to cars.
We had three hours of "high anxiety" yesterday when Trump slapped 25% tariffs on Colombia -- say what? Colombia? I can't even identify where Colombia is on a South American map -- I know it's near Central America -- I think it's to the left of Venezuela; it may be the last SA country bordering Central America -- where the soon-to-be-US-owned Panama Canal is -- going north from the rest of the banana republics -- but a trade war with Colombia? Wow, I hope folks can "diagram" that sentence.
Colombia shot back with 50% tariffs on coffee and flowers.
That's what really spooked investors. Traders weren't spooked. They love this. Buy low, sell high. But I digress.
Back to tariffs.
AOC made it really, really, really worse and really, really, really scary for investors when she said that tariffs on Colombia would increase the cost of coffee at Starbucks and .... drum roll .... the cost of flowers. Wedding season is coming up in June.
The tariffs on Colombia may still be in place -- that was a bit hazy by the end of Trump's round of golf early Sunday evening. I can't make this up. On the third hole Trump got word that Colombia would not allow US military a/c to land in his country carrying hard-working Colombians back to their home country; by the eighth hole the Colombian president said he would send his own "presidential" plane to America to pick up the outcasts -- what was I saying?
Oh, yes, the tariffs on Colombia may still be in place, that was a bit hazy last evening -- SecState Rubio will sort that out this morning, I'm sure -- but to traders and investors that was just a foreshadowing -- my favorite word used in college literature courses -- no, not a foreshadowing of what 25% tariffs on Canada or Mexico would do -- no one really knows what that would do to Canada (I guess Trudeau knows -- that's why he stepped down) -- but the fact that Trump had tariffs on Colombia in less than a New York minute told traders, investors, Xi, Trudeau, and anyone else who was listening now know that he's serious. If Trump wakes up on February 1, 2025, on the bad side of bed: wham! 25% tariffs on Canada. 25% tariffs on Mexico. Add 10% more on Chinese tariffs.
So far he's kept all his campaign promises, except the one about ending the war in Europe, but Putin is eager to talk and Zelenskyy knows he's on borrowed time. The last of Biden's money will run out by the end of the month. By the way, Putin and Trump are up to something big -- really, really big -- and Denmark is worried that Greenland might be collateral damage. LOL.
So, from DeepSeek to Greenland, that's where we are today.
Wow, after all that, I better put remind folks of the disclaimer. See below.
This commentary will be re-posted elsewhere as a stand-alone to be linked to twitter.
Chart of the day, link here:
*****************************
Back to Sanity
ISO-NE, link here. See also, the RBN Energy deep dive into PADD1 -- they stories are related:
**************************************
Back to the Bakken
WTI: $74.23.
New wells:
- Tuesday, January 28, 2025: 44 for the month, 44 for the quarter, 44 for the year,
- 38939, conf, CLR, Harms West Federal 3-32HSL1,
- Monday, January 27, 2025: 43 for the month, 43 for the quarter, 43 for the year,
- 35508, conf, Enerplus, FB Clinton 148-94-29B-32-6T,
- Sunday, January 26, 2025: 42 for the month, 42 for the quarter, 42 for the year,
- 40574, conf, Empire North Dakota LLC, Red Horse 32 1H,
- 40224, conf, Hess, GO-Dustin Brose-LE-156-98-2932H-1,
- Saturday, January 25, 2025: 40 for the month, 40 for the quarter, 40 for the year,
- 40454, conf, Hess, GO-Dustin Brose-156-98-2932H-5,
RBN Energy: what's behind PADD 1's reliance on imported crude oil and refined products? Archived.
PADD 1 — the East Coast — represents about 31% of total U.S. consumption of refined products (and 37% of its population) but is home to just 5% of U.S. refinery capacity. With only minimal in-region crude oil production, PADD 1 refineries are almost entirely dependent on imported and domestic inflows of both crude oil and products like gasoline, diesel and jet fuel. In the early years of the Shale Era, large volumes of domestic crude were railed or barged to these refineries, but in recent years they’ve again become largely reliant on imports from OPEC, Canada and other foreign sources. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll look into PADD 1’s changing crude oil and refined products supply and demand balance.
Figure 1. U.S. PADD Map and Product Supplied for Finished Petroleum Products by PADD. Source EIA
The U.S.’s Atlantic Coast, stretching from picture-perfect coastal towns in Maine to the tropical Florida Keys, is the home of New York City’s iconic skyline, Philadelphia’s historic landmarks, and Atlanta’s vibrant nightlife — and more than 125 million people, almost all of them relying on refined products for many aspects of their lives. The East Coast also represents the first of five Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts (PADDs; colored regions in Figure 1). Created in World War II to manage the country’s refined product demand, PADDs now serve the purpose of regionalizing data. PADD 1 (blue region in map on left side of Figure 1 above) is further divided into three regional groupings: PADD 1-A (New England; light-blue area in Figure 2 below), PADD 1-B (Central Atlantic; medium-blue area), and PADD 1-C (Lower Atlantic; dark-blue area).
Figure 2. Map of PADD 1 Sub-Districts and Refineries. Source: RBN
With PADD 1’s population density, it should come as no surprise that the region is the largest consumer of refined products. As shown in the chart on the ride side of Figure 1, demand for petroleum products (blue line) refined from crude oil (primarily gasoline, diesel and jet fuel, and excluding biofuels) has diminished somewhat, from an annual average of 6.3 MMb/d in 2005 to 5.1 MMb/d in 2024. That being said, the PADD’s regional refinery capacity has also been dwindling, which has led to its continued reliance on imported gasoline and diesel, as well as increasing amounts of refined products being piped in from PADD 3 (Gulf Coast) — up by roughly 500 Mb/d since 2010.
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