Tuesday, September 13, 2016

Petroshale With Six New Permits In The Bakken -- September 13, 2016

One well coming off confidential list Wednesday:
  • 30881, 629, Oasis, Hysted 5201 14-25 STX, Camp, t3/16; cum 56K 7/16;
Active rigs:

Active Rigs3469199180192

Six new permits:
  • Operator: Petroshale (6)
  • Fields: Antelope (McKenzie)
  • Comments: all six permits for wells in section 17-152-94
Four permits canceled:
  • Triangle (2): two Skedsvold Trust wells in McKenzie County
  • Samson Resources (2): a Nomad permit and a Border Farms permit, both in Divide County
Four producing wells completed:
  • 24683, 1,236, Petro-Hunt, Klatt 145-97-18A-19-1H, Little Knife, t8/16; cum --
  • 32175, 1,090, XTO, Tobacco garden 31X-29C, Tobacco Garden, t7/16; cum 3K after 6 days;
  • 32176, A, XTO, Tobacco Garden 31x-29CXD, Tobacco Garden, no test date, cum --
  • 32177, 623, XTO, Tobacco Garden 3X-29D, Tobacco Garden, t8/16; cum --  

30881, see above, Oasis, Hysted 5201 14-25 STX, Camp:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

Mike Filloon's Most Recent Update: Apache's Alpine High -- September 13, 2016

Over at SeekingAlpha:
  • Apache's recent Alpine High discovery was the largest in recent memory, and it purchased a large portion of the 450,000 acres.
  • When Silver Run purchased Centennial, it acquired approximately 12,000 acres in and on the fringe of Alpine High.
  • Approximately one-fourth of Silver Run's leasehold may be prospective the Barnett/Woodford which could increase the valuation of those acres substantially.
New major unconventional oil discoveries are few and far between these days. Most large plays have been found, with the exception of deep uneconomic geology. Once operators learned to drill and complete horizontals wells, many plays like the Bakken became economic. Unconventional plays have not only helped the US economy, but is one of the main reasons for our oil glut. This has pushed down oil prices and the US Oil ETF.
Apache may have one of the biggest oil and gas finds in recent memory.
The Alpine High is not only great for Apache, but also for other players with acreage.
The issue is finding other operators with a significant Alpine footprint. The play could be up to 450,000 acres large. Apache has 352,000 gross or 307,000 net acres. It quietly amassed this position for 1,300/acre. Apache estimates Alpine High has 3 billion barrels of oil and 75 Tcf of natural gas. This only includes the Barnett Woodford and not the Bone Springs, Wolfcamp, and Penn.
The reason Apache was able to purchase this leasehold was a misguided perception of whether the area was suitable for drilling. There have been 110 dry holes drilled in this area, and most were looking for natural gas.
Until Apache's announcement, most believed this to be a gas play only. Its structure and clay content were other reasons why the industry ignored the Barnett/Woodford. Many thought the rock was too fractured and jumbled to support a productive well.

China's Peak Oil Problem --September 13, 2016


Later, 2:02 p.m. Central Time: after reporting earlier that ConnectiCare was coming to an end (see below) it is now being reported that another ObamaCare co-op is closing shop: New Jersey. There are only six (6) ObamaCare co-ops still operating.
The New Jersey co-op is the 17th Obamacare co-op to collapse, joining other co-ops that have failed including two in Oregon, one each in Illinois, Connecticut, Arizona,
Colorado, Kentucky, Michigan, Nevada, New York, Ohio, South Carolina, Tennessee, Louisiana and Utah, as well as a co-op that served both Iowa and Nebraska.
This leaves only six co-ops in existence of the 23 that were originally created under Obamacare.

Original Post
China's peak oil problem: First, an update on China's peak oil problem -- Chinese oil production has tanked; lowest in six years -- Forbes. I first posted a "China's peak oil" problem back on August 26, 2016. This from Forbes dated today's date. Some data points:
  • China: world's second largest crude oil importer
  • China: fifth largest crude oil producer
  • China: domestic production fell nearly 10% in the past 12 months -- the lowest in more than six (6) years
  • second consecutive month of decline in production
  • but look at this: Chinese production is in the same ballpark as the Bakken unfettered
  • Bakken unfettered: 2.2 million bopd
  • Chinese production: 3.87 million bopd 
  • Chinese imports reaching record highs
  • up 16% this past year
  • on glide path to pass US as the world's largest oil importer

Active rigs in North Dakota:

Active Rigs3569199180192

RBN Energy: the return of LNG imports as a backstop for US pipeline gas.
California and New England are two of the nation’s quirkier regions when it comes to energy –– and we mean that in the nicest way possible. So maybe it’s not too surprising that, at a time when the U.S. is just beginning a big push to export natural gas as LNG, the Golden State and “Yankeeland” (as some still refer to New England) are turning to imported LNG to help them deal with possible gas shortages during peak demand periods this coming winter. In neither case is liquefied natural gas considered to be a long-term fix, but –– for now at least –– LNG may be playing a role in keeping the pilot lights lit and the electric lights on. Today, we look at how the stockpiling and use of LNG can still make sense in a nation with an abundant supply of gas.
Just a few years ago, before the dawn of the Shale Era, just about everyone thought that U.S. natural gas production had peaked and that our energy future would involve increasing volumes of imported LNG. That sparked the development of a number of LNG import terminals, most of them along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts. Mexico, anticipating a similar fate, developed a few import terminals too, including one –– EnergĂ­a Costa Azul –– in Baja California, just south of San Diego, CA. As we all know, the Shale Revolution turned LNG-importing plans on their head (at least in the U.S.), and several of those LNG import terminals are being converted into liquefaction/LNG export terminals with the aim of selling a significant portion of U.S. gas production overseas. All this makes it somewhat ironic that, given the vast volumes of gas being produced domestically today, LNG imports are making a bit of a comeback, if only temporarily and for a special purpose –– namely, as a backup source of gas in the event that existing regional infrastructure cannot supply enough traditionally piped-in natural gas during short periods of very high demand.
What a Difference One Day Makes
Look At These Headlines

What a difference a day makes. From today's WSJ unless otherwise stated:
  • top of the fold, front page: divided Fed inclined to stand pat
  • merger to create global fertilizer giant (Potash Corp; Agrium; $36 billion)
  • Hanjin restarts cargo deliveries
  • Apple, Daimler on BOE list (to buy corporate bonds)
  • stocks gain as rate fears abate
  • oil rises on weak dollar, stockpile drop (remember last week: the stockpile drop was supposedly a one-off due to huge Hurricane Hermione)
  • markets wag the Federal Reserve
  • negative rates may do more harm than good -- Bloomberg
  • GM's Chevy Bolt (EV) to go 238 miles per charge -- Yahoo!Finance
  • early morning trading: Dow 30 off 120 points and still well above 18,000; NASDAQ off 20 points and still well above 5,000 
The Chevy Bolt

The LA Times takes a test ride -- hardly a vote of confidence.
  • range anxiety even before they started, and range anxiety throughout the trip
But then look at how they did it:
Granted, I wasn’t traveling much above 50 mph most of the way, and was often going much slower. But when I got to Cambria, my max number was 204, my minimum 141 and my average 173.
Top speed 50 mph most of the way to "conserve energy" and to max distance. Top speed of 50 mph. The article actually said, "not much above 50 mph" so we are talking about driving at 45 mph to get the mileage needed. 

The devil is always in the details.

So, how is TSLA doing today? Not good. Down almost 2% and worse, now below $200/share. Adding "radar" to cameras/software for crash avoidance is going to cost a lot in time, money, and engineering resources.

The Market

Mid-day trading: the "big boys" must have gotten the word from the Fed -- we're going to announce a Fed "rate increase" on Wednesday. The Fed has entered a "quiet period" but when the market slumps 200 points after an earlier 400-point drop, one knows the "big boys" know what the Fed is going to do. This has nothing to do with energy.

Connecticut: Latest State to End ObamaCare Policies

From The Hartford Courant. Some data points:
  • latest state to end ObamaCare policies
  • state program is called: ConnectiCare
  • ConnectiCare covers "nearly" 50,000 people
  • the company would "still like to sell policies if it gets the rate increase it wants"
  • ConnectiCare got the rate it requested (17.4%) back in August, but now realizes that's not enough: needs an average 27.1 percent increase
  • two smaller insurers had already departed: UnitedHealthcare and HealthyCT
  • if ConnectiCare leaves, only Anthem remains (single payer system -- what the Dems wanted in the first place -- so what's the problem?)
  • 2016: 108,000 people in CT were covered by ObamaCare policies (the four companies mentioned above)
  • the Connecticut Insurance Department shut down HealthyCT -- with only 10,000 customers, not enough financial resources to run a program
Hillary has Connecticut locked up. If not, she would be there in a "heartbeat" to say HillaryCare would fix the problem.
 The Political Page

This morning on local talk radio, a journalist assigned to the Hillary Campaign, who says he's neutral, says all the noise about Hillary's medical problems won't change voters' minds. He may want to check the daily USC-LA Times poll in which Trump turned sharply up (45.8%) and Hillary turned sharply down (42.8%) in the first poll after the "event." This is the widest spread in several days, but more importantly, the mojo shifted in the past 72 hours.

This would be the first poll after the medical event and after the campaign blew this off as simply a case of "walking pneumonia" in an otherwise robust, healthy, 68-year-old grandmother who occasionally passes out, according to the "neutral" journalist covering the Hillary campaign. The only thing he was upset about was the fact that the "Clinton Campaign," not Hillary, lied to the press about her medical status, failing to divulge until 48 hours later that she had been given a medical diagnosis on Friday. He wasn't quite sure about the exact number of hours; he said he would have to check his notes. I can't make this stuff up.
  • 24 hours ago, September 12: Hillary: 44.4 vs Trump 44.1
  • 48 hours ago, September 11, Sunday, the day of the medical event; poll before the medical event: Hillary, 45.0 vs Trump, 43.6
  • 72 hours ago, September 10, Saturday, a full day before the medical event: Hillary, 44.8 Trump,  43.8.
The polling link is dynamic but it is interactive and you can find exact numbers all the way back to July 10, 2016.

Valiant Ambition: George Washington, Benedict Arnold, and the Fate of the American Revolution
Nathaniel Philbrick
c. 2016
DDS: 973.4 PHI
Chapter 3
A Cabinet of Fortitude

  • three regional entities of the American Army by June 1776
    • the Army of the North: Brig Gen Benedict Arnold, successfully held Fort Ticonderoga
    • the Army of the South (Georgia, North and South Carolina): has repulsed British Gen Clinton
    • the Grand Army, everything in between: General Washington, mostly failures; some great retreats
  • General Washington at risk of losing his command
  • General Washington has evacuated NYC; rushed across New Jersey, and in early December, "crossed the Delaware," and set up HQ in Newton, PA, just across the Delaware River from where Howe set up his HQ in Trenton, NJ
  • Howe: at a disadvantage; spread thin; guerrilla / back-country warfare
  • Howe: put his Hessians in New Jersey; they saw the same problem (spread thin; back-country warfare of attrition)
  • General Washington planning daring attack under darkness on Trenton, the HQ of Howe
Crossing the Delaware (again) and taking Trenton -- the Hessians

Washington doubled down; taking Trenton exceeded all expectations; ready to push the Brits out of New Jersey, back to NYC

The battles of Trenton, Assunpink Creek, and Princeton: often looked to as the point at which Washington blossomed into the brilliant commander we revere today. [First Battle of Trenton, Second Battle of Trenton in this chapter.]

His troops were too exhausted to move on to Brunswick (on the Raritan River), so he reluctantly marched to the north, taking several days to get to Morristown to recoup.