Wednesday, April 8, 2020

Wuhan Flu -- April 8, 2020

There are rumors that the Democrat front-runner for president has confused Hydrox cookies for hydroxychloroquine, and is slamming the president for killing the original Hydrox cookie.

He says "we" need a World War I Manhattan-like project to bring back the Hydrox cookie if that's what it takes ... well ... you know the thing ... the thing is this .. the cookie is the cure.

The Apple Page

Teen iPhone ownership hits an all-time high in long-running survey. Link here.

The iPhone continues to be the most popular smartphone among U.S. teens, a title that it has held for many years, according to new data gathered by investment firm Piper Sandler for its most recent semiannual teen survey in the United States. 
This is truly amazing.
85 percent of teens surveyed own an ‌iPhone‌, and 88 percent expect an ‌iPhone‌ to be their next phone, both of which are new all-time survey highs, but it's worth keeping in mind that most of these respondents are from higher-income families.
Last year, 83 percent of teens surveyed owned an ‌iPhone‌, and 86 percent planned to purchase.
8 percent of teens said they planned to purchase an Android, down from 10 percent in the year-ago survey.
Teen interest in the ‌iPhone‌ has been strong since the beginning of these surveys, but has grown steadily every year.
In 2020, Apple is expected to release 5G iPhones and a new, more affordable ‌iPhone‌ SE option, which could cause teen ‌iPhone‌ adoption numbers to grow even further.
This year's survey also took a look at the AirPods. 52 percent of teens said that they own a set of ‌AirPods‌, and of those that don't own ‌AirPods‌, 18 percent plan to purchase them within a year.

Huge, Huge EOG Well In Clarks Creek -- April 8, 2020

Re-posting. FracFocus has no frack data for this well.

But the NDIC file report shows that this well was stimulated/fracked 8/22/2019, with 40 stages, 14.1 million lbs. The well:
  • 36415, 3,519, Clarks Creek 18-0719H, Clarks Creek, t9/9/19; cum 300K 2/20; by the way, 87K over 24 days extrapolates to 109K over 30 days:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Three "Old" CLR Bailey Wells In Pershing Oil Field Finally Fracked -- April 8, 2020

These CLR Bailey wells are tracked here.

These wells were taken off line back in early 2019.

Then, last month, January, 2020, I noted that the wells were starting to come back on line.

These wells were originally drilled back in early 2018, but never completed. I was waiting for them to be completed. They were off line for a long, long time. But now -- nice wells.

The note:
  • March 14, 2020: 33113 - 33117, inclusive;
Now, a full month of production, let's see how they did:
  • 33113:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
  • 33114:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
  • 33115:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

One exception; fracked/completed back in mid-2018
  • 33116, 1,733, CLR, Bailey 9-24H2, Pershing, t6/18; cum 317K 2/20;

Another exception; fracked/completed back in 2018
  • 33116, 1,962, CLR, Bailey 8-24H, Pershing, t6/18; cum 378K 2/20;

Closing Another Loop -- Nothing About The Bakken -- April 8, 2020

A reader sent me a long e-mail note regarding "the Antikythera mechanism" with a link to a YouTube video. The reader wrote:
[A]s a machinest in my younger life I used to machine gears and learned how gear ratios were calculated, and created. I used to machine those items using milling machines and turning lathes for steele, brass, etc. Also I have reasonably good mathematics aptitude and could follow all the rather complex calculations the "reinventors" of this analog computer had to discover and solve.
You see, all they had was a completely encrusted wafer like artifact from the deep sea amongst shipwreck debris which sank in a storm circa 60 to 50 BC. The use of sophisticated x-ray technology, computer driven photography, and other devices invented to "see inside" and see through this encrusted artifact is fascinating to watch.
When I received that note from the reader, I remembered having read about the Antikythera mechanism not too long ago, but for the life of me I could not remember where.

Then, wouldn't you know it? I was re-reading The Discovery of Middle Earth: Mapping the Lost World of the Celts, Graham Robb, c. 2013, and remembered where I had about "the mechanism." There on page 87 -- wow.

So, a huge "thank you" to the reader who sent me these new links.

On another note, The Discovery of Middle Earth is one of my top-shelf books. It's not an easy book to read, and there is a lot of esoterica but in the end, it's fun to read through relatively quickly the first time to get an overview and then read it more slowly. There's enough trivia in that book to last several dozen cocktail parties (once they're back in vogue).

I don't think any two people really agree what is meant by "middle earth" and who invented the term,  but this is my current understanding:
  • J.R.R.Tolkien may not have invented the term, but he certainly is most responsible for making it fashionable;
  • middle earth is simply a place where men live; and,
Beowulf had a middle Earth.

Tolkien had a middle Earth.

And Graham Robb has a middle Earth, the land of the Celts.

Texas Wildflower Season (And Allergy Season)

Notes From All Over, Late Afternoon Edition -- Wednesday, April 8, 2020

Investor class: should do very, very well. New mindset needed. New time horizon.

Disclaimer: Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Worst personal decision among the rich and famous: the couple formerly known as the Sussex Royals fleeing to Los Angeles. What were they thinking? I lived less than ten years total in England and I still have fond memories. If I had all the money in the world, and the family situation was different, I would go back to England in a heartbeat. Can you imagine how "he" must feel, having grown up in England with all those memories? And that lifestyle?

How much stuff is really moving through the mail? We will never know but two data points. Amazon Prime members who are used to same day delivery, maybe two day delivery, are being told that delivery times are being extended to make sure that "critical" items are moving first. Books, etc., are being shipped much less slowly so food and toilet paper can move more quickly. That was the first data point. Second data point: today I saw a person driving a Budget rent-a-van -- and it was one of those huge vans -- delivering packages. Obviously this is an entrepreneur contracting with someone -- probably Amazon, to deliver packages. So, now we have UPS, FedEx, USPS, Amazon, and now private individuals delivering packages.

Daily grocery store visit: well-stocked; prices high. Shelves stocked 25% to 50% of normal. Toilet paper still in more-than-adequate supply. Most interesting: pallets with Hershey syrup (mentioned before). Today, now, ice cream is definitely being bought up, maybe not hoarded, but definitely being bought up.

Similac, baby formula, is on back-order at Amazon.

Internet connectivity: no problems, but I do note some strain on bandwidth. Subtle.

Atmospheric CO2: if atmospheric CO2 doesn't decrease over the next few months, it will be evidence that manmade contribution is minimal / trivial / unimportant. Or that month-to-month reporting is a ridiculous exercise. Or that it's going to take cutting gasoline demand by more than 50% to make a difference.

Word for the day: betamists -- professional walkers. Before there were accurate ways to measure distance, people were hired to walk to measure distances between two points. They had exact, reproducible strides.

Locked down. My goal, previously posted, was to teach Sophia to ride her bike. We accomplished that in two days a couple of weeks ago. Today, another beautiful ride in the park.

Other exercises during the day:
  • reading first-grade books
  • addition, subtraction, and flashcards
  • telling time (on the hour; on the half-hour) -- accomplished
  • working on coins, currency -- started yesterday
  • animal recognition
  • bird sounds 
  • IMO (Facetime) with her TutorTime friends
  • arts and crafts; stencils; painting; 
  • ProCreate on the iPad 

Gasoline Below 80 Cents/Gallon In Wisconsin -- April 8, 2020

Gas Buddy -- Wisconsin:

Gas Buddy -- Oklahoma: 92 cents/gallong.

Peak oil! LOL. What peak oil? Wow, this is simply amazing. Storage tanks around the world are now full. Midstreamers won't let operators "hide" oil in their pipelines. Saudi Arabia started building the largest commercial oil fleet in the world back in ... 2016. One wonders how that worked out? In 2016 Saudi was two years into its "trillion-dollar" debacle. Saudi is now leasing upwards of another 40 or more VLCCs and ULCCs each capable of carrying one to three million bbls of oil. Memo to self: send note to Art Berman. Not hearing much from the peak oil folks. And, yes, I don't subscribe to "peak oil production" resulting from "peak oil demand destruction." Nor did Hubbert. But we must move on.

Time to build more storage tanks? One wonders how much it costs to build an onshore crude oil storage tank that can hold 400,000 bbls of oil? Could Venezuela -- no longer producing oil -- use its empty tanks to store Russian oil? A VLCC/ULCC currently commands upwards of $50,000/day -- 180 days = $9 million. Someone can check the math. Over 180 days, would add $4.50/bbl to the cost of oil. Someone can check the math. A 9-million-bbl tank farm, the tanks, $200 million? I have no idea, but if even close to accurate, the VLCCs / ULCCs still make better sense.

Way ahead of my headlights.

Gasoline demand, link here:

Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

Active Rigs3664584931

One new permit, #37501 --
  • Operator: Sinclair
  • Field: Mary oil field, small four-section field that straddles McKenzie / Dunn counties, along the southeast corner of McKenzie Corner
  • Comments: Sinclair has a permit for Bighorn well in NWSW 31-147-97, Mary oil field, which is clearly Tier 2 at best, possibly Tier 3
Dry hold:
  • 34110, dry, Oasis, Borden Federal  5300 11-35 3B, Willow Creek, no file report yet;
Social Distancing

Huge Volatility In Most Recent EIA Weekly Petroleum Report; Largest Change I've Seen Since Blogging Began More Than Ten Years Ago -- April 8, 2020

EIA weekly petroleum report, link here:
  • US crude oil in storage increased by 15.2 million bbls;
  • US crude oil in storage now stands at 484.4 million bbls, about 2% above the five-year average, and the five-year average has been "fat" -- in fact, the five-year average has been re-set;
  • refineries are operating at only 75.6% capacity -- this is incredible; largest drop I've ever seen, week-over-week; and the lowest operating capacity I've ever seen;
  • oil imports averaged less than 6 million bopd (actual: 5.9 million bbls); down by 173,000 bopd
  • oil imports decreased 8.4% over the past four weeks compared to similar period one year ago
  • total products delivered down over 10% (four-week period)
  • jet fuel down an incredible 22% (four-week period)
  • WTI after this data released: $24.41 -- it held, remarkable;
Re-balancing: current week at 484.4 is 8.4% higher than week 0 at 446.9;
Week Ending
Million Bbls Storage
Week 0
November 21, 2018
Week 1
November 28, 2018
Week 2
December 6, 2018
Week 3
December 12, 2018
Week 4
December 19, 2018
Week 5
December 28, 2018
Week 6
January 4, 2019
Week 7
January 9, 2019
Week 8
January 16, 2019
Week 9
January 24, 2019
Week 58
January 3, 2020
Week 59
January 8, 2020
Week 60
January 15, 2020
Week 61
January 23, 2020
Week 62
January 29, 2020
Week 63
February 5, 2020
Week 64
February 12, 2020
Week 65
February 20, 2020
Week 66
February 26, 2020
Week 67
March 4, 2020
Week 68
March 11, 2020
Week 68
March 18, 2020
Week 69
March 25, 2020
Week 70
April 1, 2020
Week 71
April 8, 2020

Jet fuel delivered:
Jet Fuel Delivered, Change, Four-Week/Four-Week

Week Ending
Week 0
March 11, 2020
Week 1
March 18, 2020
Week 2
March 25, 2020
Week 3
April 1, 2020
Week 4
April 8, 2020

US crude oil imports:
Crude Oil Imports

Week Ending
Raw Data, millions of bbls
Week 0
March 11, 2029
Week 1
March 18, 2020
Week 2
March 25, 2020
Week 3
April 1, 2020
Week 4
April 8, 2020

The Literature Page

I have not found this compare/contrast in the literature / internet yet, but I assume if I tried hard enough, it might be there somewhere. But this is my two cents worth and it provides a great basis for an essay if the granddaughters are ever required to right an essay / thesis about the novel.