Thursday, August 9, 2018

MRO Wells In Section 14-146-94

Incredible wells.

See this post for producing wells that were reported as completed today. Here's the graphic:

The graphic:



The wells:
  • 16860, 348, MRO, Stohler 41-3H, Bailey, t2/08; cum 387K 6/18; off-line since 4/18; back on line 8/18 with big jump in production: not re-fracked
  • 33598, 3,473, MRO, Rita 41-3TFH, Bailey, t5/18; cum 192K 12/18;
  • 33597, 3,514, MRO, Stanton 41-3H, Bailey, t5/18; cum 198K 12/18;
  • 33599, 5,000, MRO, Gravel Coulee 14-11TFH, Bailey, t6/18; cum 148K 12/18;
  • 33580, 3,276, MRO, McFadden 14-11H, Bailey, t6/18; cum 155K 12/18;
  • 33581, 6,573, MRO, Olea 24-11TFH, Bailey, t6/18; cum 167K 12/18;
  • 33582, 5,305, MRO, Morrison 24-11H, Bailey, t5/18; cum 171K 12/18;
  • 33583, 5,694, MRO, Sundby 24-11TFH, Bailey, t6/18; cum 168K 12/18;
  • 33437, 3,115, MRO, Tipton 34-11H, Bailey, t6/18; cum 141K 12/18;
  • 33436, 4,491, MRO, Gifford 34-11TFH, Bailey, t6/18; cum 172K 12/18;
  • 33435, 4,538, MRO, Hugo 34-11H, Bailey, t6/18; cum 171K 12/18;
  • 33443, 4,152, MRO, Marlene 34-11TFH, Bailey, t6/18; cum 155K 12/18;
  • 17498, 498, MRO, Chimney Butte 34-11H, Bailey, t11/08; cum 373K 12/18; API - 33-025-00804; a re-frack; only 5.7 million gallons of water; 89.5% water by mass; on re-frack:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN7-20182832033320783508720329516612950
BAKKEN6-20182840585395717999239267636507
BAKKEN5-20180000000
BAKKEN4-20180000000
BAKKEN3-20180000000
BAKKEN2-20180000000
BAKKEN1-20180000000
BAKKEN12-20170000000
BAKKEN11-20170000000
BAKKEN10-201700320000
BAKKEN9-2017296756903566380397
*****************************************

17498, a re-frack:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN6-20182840585395717999239267636507
BAKKEN5-20180000000
BAKKEN4-20180000000
BAKKEN3-20180000000


33583 (extrapolates to 70K over 30 days):
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN6-20182250785501477600264104060661

33582, extrapolates to 78K over 30 days:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN6-20181641749412256711436292033522

33581 (extrapolates o 75K over 30 days):
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN6-20182255074543828679942450038804

Fourteen Producing DUCs Reported As Completed -- Some Huge Wells -- August 9, 2018

Active rigs:

$66.738/9/201808/09/201708/09/201608/09/201508/09/2014
Active Rigs62573373193

Eight new permits:
  • Operators: Hess (5); Oasis (3)
  • Fields: Beaver Lodge (Williams); Banks (McKenzie)
  • Comments: Hess has permits for a 5-well BL-DOMY pad in SESE 20-156-95; Oasis with permits for a 3-well Pederson pad in lot 3/3-152-98; 
Fourteen producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed (see the graphic at this post for the MRO wells on Bailey oil field):
  • 33802, 1,214, XTO, Lund 44-8C, Siverston, t7/18; cum --
  • 33435, 4,538, MRO, Hugo 34-11H, (supposed to have been on yesterday's report), Bailey, t6/18; cum 28K in first 13 days;
  • 33437, 3,115, MRO, Tipton 34-11H,  Bailey, t6/18; cum 9K in first 6 days;
  • 33443, 4,152, MRO, Marlene 34-11TFH, Bailey, t6/18; cum 44K in first 25 days;
  • 33254, 1,158, Whiting, Wold Federal 44-7-3-TFXH, Banks, t7/18; cum --
  • 33744, n/d, Whiting, Bartelson Federal 44-31-3H, Sanish, t--
  • 33255, 990, Whiting, Wold Federal 44-7-4TFXH, Banks, t7/18; cum --
  • 33747, n/d, Whiting, Bartelson Federal 44-31TFH, Sanish, t --
  • 34105, 2,142, Whiting, Ellis 24-31-1H, Stockyard Creek, t7/18; cum --
  • 33859, 699, BR, Faye 1C MBH, Elidah, t7/18; cum --
  • 33860, 475, BR, Faye 1B UTFH, Elidah, t7/18; cum --
  • 33861, 226, BR, Faye 1A MBH, Elidah, t7/18; cum --
  • 33858, 733, BR, Faye 1D UTFH, Elidah, t7/18; cum --
  • 33256, 1,173, Whiting, Wold Federal 44-7-5TFXH, Banks, t7/18; cum --
Four permits canceled:
  • XTO: three Teddy Federal permits and one North Mabel permit, all in Dunn County

When Did This Pop Up? Where Did This Come From? The Black Snake May Get Bigger -- August 9, 2018

ETP plans to expand DAPL by 100,000 bopd. How do I almost miss these stories? From the linked site:
Energy Transfer is planning an expansion of its two key oil pipelines in the Bakken and Permian as crude output continues to grow substantially in both basins and producers seek more access to markets.
The 100,000 b/d expansion of Dakota Access Pipeline, commonly known as DAPL, is on the cards, Chief Operating Officer Marshall McCrea said on an earnings webcast, without indicating a timeline.
"We recently maintained [a throughput] over 500,000 b/d on DAPL and producers are still seeking options to move those barrels to multiple markets," McCrea said.
DAPL provides an outlet for producers in the land-locked Bakken and Three Forks areas of the Williston Basin to ship their barrels south under two options.
The first is to deliver crude to a storage hub in Pakota, Illinois, from where they will be able to access refineries in the US Midwest and also take the barrels on rail cars to the US East Coast.
The other option is taking the barrels farther south to Nederland, Texas, through the Energy Transfer Crude Oil Pipeline, where it can be run by local refineries or exported from the US Gulf Coast.
The 700-mile ETCO pipeline of capacity some 550,000 b/d is operated by Energy Transfer and runs from Patoka to Nederland, where it also owns a 26 million-barrel oil storage terminal.
More at the link.

The pipeline in the Permian: Permian Express-4. At the linked article:
Energy Transfer also plans to expand its Permian Express pipeline system, which ships barrels from that basin to Nederland, CFO Thomas Long said on the same earnings webcast. In the second quarter, the company successfully completed an open season to add up to 50,000 b/d on the Permian Express-3 line, with that new capacity to be made available to shippers by later this year, Long said. Energy Transfer is also planning an 80,000-100,000 b/d expansion to be dubbed Permian Express-4, Long said without indicating a time line.

The BR Midnight Run Wells In Union Center

Updates

August 25, 2019: production data updated.

December 9, 2018: update of #20325 here.

November 23, 2018: production data has been updated; the graphic has not changed since the original post.

Original Post

The BR Midnight Run wells:
  • 17421, 544, BR, Midnight Run 41-1H, t11/08; cum 426K 6/19;
  • 20323, 3,325, BR, Midnight Run 11-1MB, t12/11; cum 356K 6/19; huge jump in 4/18;
  • 20324, 1,963, BR, Midnight Run 21-1TFH, t12/11; cum 252K 6/19; huge jump in 4/18;
  • 20325, 2,846, BR, Midnight Run 21-1MB, t12/11; cum 335K 6/19; huge jump in 4/18;
  • 20326, 2,083, BR, Midnight Run 31-1TFH, t12/11; cum 334K 6/19; watch for jump in production; off-line as of 5/18; no jump in production seen when it came back on line in 7/18;
  • 20327, 2,443, BR, Midnight Run 41-1TFH, t12/11; cum 318K 6/19;
  • 22675, 2,640, BR, Midnight Run 11-1TFH, t10/12; cum 289K 6/19; huge jump in 3/18;
  • 31317, 157 (no typo), BR, Midnight Run 2-8-12MTFH, t3/18; cum 210K 6/19;
  • 31318, 133 (no typo), BR, Midnight Run 3-8-12MBH, t3/18; cum 194K 6/19;
  • 31319, 448 (no typo), BR, Midnight Run 4-8-12MTFH, t3/18; cum 158K 6/19;
The graphic:

Random Update Of Several BR Midnight Run Wells -- Implications For The Bakken -- August 9, 2018

The note before the note: This is an incredibly important note on several levels regarding BR's Midnight Run wells. It might be a bit confusing, but it speaks volumes about the potential of the Bakken. Things to think about:
  • neighboring fracks
  • heel-to-toe / toe-to-heel (we first talked about this back on October 26, 2011)
  • 31-stage frack (rather than typical 60-stage frack)
  • 9 million lbs / 31 stage = almost 300,000 lbs / stage vs typical <200 bakken="" in="" lbs="" li="" nbsp="" stage="" the="">
  • daughter wells: TFH
  • parent wells: middle Bakken
The Midnight Run wells are tracked here.

The note:

This is quite cool. I highlighted this well some time ago:  Update On A Poorly Performing BR Midnight Run Well That Is Now Doing Well; No Explanation -- December 7, 2016. At that time, this was posted:
Update on a well that had a huge IP, but subsequent production was poor, and is now doing well:
  • 20323, 3,325, BR, Midnight Run 11-1MBH, Union Center, t12/11; cum 299K 10/16; poor producer after 1/15; most recent sundry form dated November, 2012 [until recently --  12/7/16]. There were two separate frack reports, but both fracks accomplished on two consecutive days in November, 2011. The first frack 11/9/11, 8 stages, 641K lbs; the second frack 11/10/11, 12 stages, 1.7 million lbs proppant; maximum recorded gas was 4,710 units with a 25' trip flare. The south leg total lateral was 100% in targeted dolostone pay; 0' above target; and 0' in the lower middle Bakken pay. Target pay was located at 11 - 26' beneath the base of the upper Bakken shale. The well went to INACTIVE status for several months in mid- and late-2015. API: 33-053-03438.
There is nothing in the file report to explain the production profile; there were no neighboring wells fraced at the time production improved.
At the link above, check out the graphic.

Then look at the updated graphic:



Note the new heel-to-toe well; the new well since the last time the graphic was updated:
  • 31317, 157, BR, Midnight Run 2-8-12MTFH, Union Center, Three Forks, 31 stages, 9.4 million lbs, t3/18; cum 55K 6/18;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN6-2018181613816047749926296262290
BAKKEN5-20182725366254391197533880245629211
BAKKEN4-2018141320012843771418998142094733
BAKKEN3-2018512612601301

Now, back to #20323, a Middle Bakken well --

Production at that time, 20323:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN10-20163127983069495830283020
BAKKEN9-20163028682819476810381030
BAKKEN8-20163133343139708935693560
BAKKEN7-20163138743696458972397230
BAKKEN6-20161120632093286353235320
BAKKEN5-20162022612018497726172610

Look at the new production data, 20323, a Middle Bakken well:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN6-20182462156380278411660116000
BAKKEN5-20183173657372418014229141520
BAKKEN4-20182694459379472815023149580
BAKKEN3-20180000000
BAKKEN2-20180000000
BAKKEN1-20180000000
BAKKEN12-20174186243245805700
BAKKEN11-20173019212185201530052260
BAKKEN10-20173125882386366656164840
BAKKEN9-201724285026853176407626186
BAKKEN8-2017445245201000
BAKKEN7-20172017291871415450144510
BAKKEN6-20171824212470353518651410
BAKKEN5-20172019771845360561955690

But even more incredibly, look at this earlier well. FracFocus -- no data that it was re-fracked, #20324, a Three Forks well:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN6-2018241222112510705618264182040
BAKKEN5-20183116918167331047728121280440
BAKKEN4-201830218919962010252124470
BAKKEN3-20180000000
BAKKEN2-20180000000
BAKKEN1-20180000000
BAKKEN12-20170000000
BAKKEN11-201710267567117547290
BAKKEN10-20173019491987444490648320
BAKKEN9-20171914501102617319631500

It gets better, another middle Bakken well; even farther away:
#20325:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN6-201813411940541836667966470
BAKKEN5-201855082721200
BAKKEN4-20180000000
BAKKEN3-20180000000
BAKKEN2-20180000000
BAKKEN1-20183000700
BAKKEN12-20176361523511249649585
BAKKEN11-20173017271832150302129470
BAKKEN10-20173019351843193309030160

And, it doesn't quit there, another well, farther to the west:
#22675:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN6-201830406738551486478747870
BAKKEN5-201831454045371840653865380
BAKKEN4-201830706371382977946194610
BAKKEN3-201828788278212477926092560
BAKKEN2-20180000000
BAKKEN1-2018300010100
BAKKEN12-20170000000
BAKKEN11-2017231065947241240324000
BAKKEN10-20173120192013496381338130

 #24537: even farther to the west and even that one might have been affected:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN6-20181213491370400214321130
BAKKEN5-201816433544221792755575150
BAKKEN4-201825530853472209793978770
BAKKEN3-20180000000
BAKKEN2-20180000000
BAKKEN1-2018100015150
BAKKEN12-20172532683208415778777250
BAKKEN11-20173043684289533851484400
BAKKEN10-20173161106350784874086630
BAKKEN9-2017226301731311260
BAKKEN8-20170000000
BAKKEN7-20170000000
BAKKEN6-20170000000
BAKKEN5-20171000000
BAKKEN4-20172215811632242437443190

The Market, Energy, And Political Page, T+70 -- August 9, 2018 -- Is The State Purposely Making The Forest Fires Worse?

Haynesville monthly natural gas production, reaches five-year high:


New natural gas plant expansion proposed for McKenzie County. Link here. Will quadruple capacity at this one plant.
  • expand the Roosevelt Gas Plant
  • from 50 to 200 million cfpd
  • would be the 6th natural gas expansion or new plan under development in the state
  • located seven miles south of Watford City
  • the state has already penciled this one in -- see the spreadsheet for the state here
Natural gas fill rate (link here):


*********************************
The Last Straw


Is Jerry Brown / California purposely making the record-breaking fires worse to "prove a point?" 
The state is rigorously following environmental regulations -- at the risk of making things worse; perhaps endangering lives. Google -- Commerce chief scolds California over environmental policies he says hinder firefighters: ‘Lives are at stake.'
But back to the straws. For those who missed it, from July 23, 2018:

It doesn't matter whether the data is correct or not; the question is how an entire industry and, the millennials, fell for his data. I guess the same way they fell for the global warming data -- if you say it enough times, it becomes fact. Public school education.



The Market, Energy, Political, And Fake News Page, T+70 -- August 9, 2018

Regardless of where the trade war stands on T+75, I plan to move on after that date. We'll have to see what the president tweets on Day 75 of the trade war. Right now I'm leaning toward "T+1 on Iran sanctions."

From CNM today:



Now, back to the market.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.

Wow, I'm in a good mood.

WTI: for investors, we are still well above the sweet spot. The sweet spot for me, is around $55-WTI. That's low enough to prevent any adverse effect on the overall economy, and the oil companies will do just fine. At $66-WTI, the oil companies should be doing very, very well, and the economy should do just fine. Saudi Arabia will pretty much implode if they can't get oil above current price point.

WTI: the consensus on the street suggests that oil will trend higher, although I have a bit of trouble thinking it will trend much higher than its recent highs.

Ticker symbols:
  • AAPL: hit a new high today. And it wasn't subtle: up over 1%; up over $2.25/share. Wow. Who wudda guessed? I was thinking that by now folks would be taking profits. My hunch: before the year is out, talk of a dividend increase will crescendo.
  • BRK-B: up slightly; nothing to write home about but going in the right direction.
  • NOG: nimble traders -- which I'm not -- could have done well on NOG today. It dropped almost ten percent shortly after the opening, trading below $3.00/share, but recovered, and is now down less than 5%, trading at $3.16. Had one bought 10,000 shares of NOG at $2.98 ($29,800) and then sold at $3.15, a nice gain of $1,700 in about one hour. Again, remember, this is not an investment site. 
  • ENB: up 1%; earlier this week it was reported that Enbridge would be bringing on-line $7 billion worth of projects by the end of the year
  • EEP: up 2%
  • EPD: up slightly less than 1%; also, the July, 2018, distribution was a bit higher than the July, 2017, distribution
  • KMI: up a bit less than 1%
  • TRP (the Keystone XL; the Trans Mountain folks): up over 1%; could "charge" Canada 26% more to complete the Trans Mountain project, and Canada really has no choice but to pay whatever it takes at this point
  • SRE: up slightly
  • S: up half a percent
  • COP is up 1% but CVX is down a bit 
***************************************
The Book Page

I don't have the book in front of me so I can't quote from it.

The book:

She Has her Mother's Laugh: The Powers, Perversions, and Potential of Heredity, Carl Zimmer, c. 2018. Paging through it suggests it's the kind of book I generally don't like -- a great thesis, but veering off in all directions, but it's thick at 574 pages and will keep me occupied for the week.
I suppose I'm about a third of the way through the book, reading a couple of chapters each evening. I can't say I really, really enjoy the book, but it's written in such a way that makes it difficult to put it down. The writing seems a bit "wordy" and the author interjects a lot of banality with long passages about his immediate family that seem unnecessary, but there may be a "revelation" regarding his own daughters by the end of the book.

This is what makes the book fascinating: his unique way of connecting the dots with regard to following the "genetics" story. He seems to start off with some trivial point about genetics, develops the story over several pages, even over several chapters, connecting the dots, until a most interesting story develops.

The most recent example: somehow, the author got onto the subject of "feeblemindedness" which led to the Kallikak family and then to Vineland Training School. And, then after having brought up Pearl S Buck earlier, which confused me, the author comes back full circle to tell the story of Pearl Buck's only biological/natural daughter. Pearl Buck did have an adopted daughter.

One would think with my background in pediatrics, I would know "all there is to know" about PKU (phenylketonuria) but I completely missed this story.

It turns out the physician who "discovered" the cause of phenylketonuria was a Norwegian. I wish I had known that in high school. My absolutely wonderful eastern European chemistry teacher said he would have given me an "A" for the course if I could find any Norwegian that produced anything of value. LOL. It was all in great fun. I think. I hope.

I'm not sure I can recommend the book to the general audience, but for someone who likes connecting dots in the world of genetics, this book is very rewarding.

On another note, right, wrong, or indifferent, it was interesting to read the author's short summary of Rosalind, Watson, and Crick and their discovery of the nature of DNA.

****************************
Straws

Sophia can relate to this. Sophia loves playing "tag, you're it!"

Beyond The Pale -- Mexico Bans Fracking -- August 9, 2018

Mexico, apparently, has vast shale oil and natural gas reserves in a basin that directly connects to the Eagle Ford in Texas.

To date, Mexico apparently imports 85% of the natural gas it consumes.

It seems tapping their shale natural gas would be a no-brainer.

It's not.

The new president-elect of Mexico, declared last week, that he will ban fracking in Mexico.

Irina Slav, over at oilprice suggests that fracking the Burgos Basin makes no economic sense anyway, but still, just the fact that President-elect Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador has said he will ban fracking seems to be ... well, beyond the pale.

It will be interesting to see Obrador's plans for the rest of the country's oil / natural gas sector.

Something tells me the "road to Mexico" is quickly becoming the "road to Venezuela."