Thursday, August 9, 2018

MRO Wells In Section 14-146-94

Incredible wells.

See this post for producing wells that were reported as completed today. Here's the graphic:

The graphic:

The wells:
  • 16860, 348, MRO, Stohler 41-3H, Bailey, t2/08; cum 498K 11/20; off-line since 4/18; back on line 8/18 with big jump in production: not re-fracked
  • 33598, 3,473, MRO, Rita 41-3TFH, Bailey, t5/18; cum 308K 11/20;
  • 33597, 3,514, MRO, Stanton 41-3H, Bailey, t5/18; cum 267K 11/20; was offline all of 7/19; back on line 8/19; 
  • 33599, 5,000, MRO, Gravel Coulee 14-11TFH, Bailey, t6/18; cum 226K 11/20;
  • 33580, 3,276, MRO, McFadden 14-11H, Bailey, t6/18; cum 247K 11/20; offline 11/19; returns to production, 1/20 for nine days;
  • 33581, 6,573, MRO, Olea 24-11TFH, Bailey, t6/18; cum 227K 11/20; off line 1/120; back on line 2/20;
  • 33582, 5,305, MRO, Morrison 24-11H, Bailey, t5/18; cum 285K 11/20; off line 1/120; back on line 2/20;
  • 33583, 5,694, MRO, Sundby 24-11TFH, Bailey, t6/18; cum 257K 11/20;
  • 33437, 3,115, MRO, Tipton 34-11H, Bailey, t6/18; cum 230K 11/20; only six days, 10/19;
  • 33436, 4,491, MRO, Gifford 34-11TFH, Bailey, t6/18; cum 250K 11/20;
  • 33435, 4,538, MRO, Hugo 34-11H, Bailey, t6/18; cum 253K 11/20;
  • 33443, 4,152, MRO, Marlene 34-11TFH, Bailey, t6/18; cum 260K 11/20;
  • 17498, 498, MRO, Chimney Butte 34-11H, Bailey, t11/08; cum 516K 11/20; API - 33-025-00804; a re-frack; only 5.7 million gallons of water; 89.5% water by mass; on re-frack:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

17498, a re-frack:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

33583 (extrapolates to 70K over 30 days):
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

33582, extrapolates to 78K over 30 days:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

33581 (extrapolates o 75K over 30 days):
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Fourteen Producing DUCs Reported As Completed -- Some Huge Wells -- August 9, 2018

Active rigs:

Active Rigs62573373193

Eight new permits:
  • Operators: Hess (5); Oasis (3)
  • Fields: Beaver Lodge (Williams); Banks (McKenzie)
  • Comments: 
    • Hess has permits for a 5-well BL-DOMY pad in SESE 20-156-95; Oasis with permits for a 3-well Pederson pad in lot 3/3-152-98; 
Fourteen producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed (see the graphic at this post for the MRO wells on Bailey oil field):
  • 33802, 1,214, XTO, Lund 44-8C, Siverston, t7/18; cum --
  • 33435, 4,538, MRO, Hugo 34-11H, (supposed to have been on yesterday's report), Bailey, t6/18; cum 28K in first 13 days;
  • 33437, 3,115, MRO, Tipton 34-11H,  Bailey, t6/18; cum 9K in first 6 days;
  • 33443, 4,152, MRO, Marlene 34-11TFH, Bailey, t6/18; cum 44K in first 25 days;
  • 33254, 1,158, Whiting, Wold Federal 44-7-3-TFXH, Banks, t7/18; cum --
  • 33744, n/d, Whiting, Bartelson Federal 44-31-3H, Sanish, t--
  • 33255, 990, Whiting, Wold Federal 44-7-4TFXH, Banks, t7/18; cum --
  • 33747, n/d, Whiting, Bartelson Federal 44-31TFH, Sanish, t --
  • 34105, 2,142, Whiting, Ellis 24-31-1H, Stockyard Creek, t7/18; cum --
  • 33859, 699, BR, Faye 1C MBH, Elidah, t7/18; cum --
  • 33860, 475, BR, Faye 1B UTFH, Elidah, t7/18; cum --
  • 33861, 226, BR, Faye 1A MBH, Elidah, t7/18; cum --
  • 33858, 733, BR, Faye 1D UTFH, Elidah, t7/18; cum --
  • 33256, 1,173, Whiting, Wold Federal 44-7-5TFXH, Banks, t7/18; cum --
Four permits canceled:
  • XTO: three Teddy Federal permits and one North Mabel permit, all in Dunn County

When Did This Pop Up? Where Did This Come From? The Black Snake May Get Bigger -- August 9, 2018

ETP plans to expand DAPL by 100,000 bopd. How do I almost miss these stories? From the linked site:
Energy Transfer is planning an expansion of its two key oil pipelines in the Bakken and Permian as crude output continues to grow substantially in both basins and producers seek more access to markets.
The 100,000 b/d expansion of Dakota Access Pipeline, commonly known as DAPL, is on the cards, Chief Operating Officer Marshall McCrea said on an earnings webcast, without indicating a timeline.
"We recently maintained [a throughput] over 500,000 b/d on DAPL and producers are still seeking options to move those barrels to multiple markets," McCrea said.
DAPL provides an outlet for producers in the land-locked Bakken and Three Forks areas of the Williston Basin to ship their barrels south under two options.
The first is to deliver crude to a storage hub in Pakota, Illinois, from where they will be able to access refineries in the US Midwest and also take the barrels on rail cars to the US East Coast.
The other option is taking the barrels farther south to Nederland, Texas, through the Energy Transfer Crude Oil Pipeline, where it can be run by local refineries or exported from the US Gulf Coast.
The 700-mile ETCO pipeline of capacity some 550,000 b/d is operated by Energy Transfer and runs from Patoka to Nederland, where it also owns a 26 million-barrel oil storage terminal.
More at the link.

The pipeline in the Permian: Permian Express-4. At the linked article:
Energy Transfer also plans to expand its Permian Express pipeline system, which ships barrels from that basin to Nederland, CFO Thomas Long said on the same earnings webcast. In the second quarter, the company successfully completed an open season to add up to 50,000 b/d on the Permian Express-3 line, with that new capacity to be made available to shippers by later this year, Long said. Energy Transfer is also planning an 80,000-100,000 b/d expansion to be dubbed Permian Express-4, Long said without indicating a time line.

The BR Midnight Run Wells In Union Center


August 25, 2019: production data updated.

December 9, 2018: update of #20325 here.

November 23, 2018: production data has been updated; the graphic has not changed since the original post.

Original Post

The BR Midnight Run wells:
  • 17421, AB/IA/544, BR, Midnight Run 41-1H, t11/08; cum 427K 9/19; off line 10/19; remains off line 5/21;
  • 20323, IA/3,325, BR, Midnight Run 11-1MB, t12/11; cum 367K 9/19; huge jump in 4/18; off line as of 7/19; remains off line 1/20; back on line 10/20 but back off line 4/21;
  • 20324, 1,963, BR, Midnight Run 21-1TFH, t12/11; cum 261K 1/20; huge jump in 4/18; off line 4/21;
  • 20325, 2,846, BR, Midnight Run 21-1MB, t12/11; cum 343K 1/20; huge jump in 4/18; off line 5/21;
  • 20326, 2,083, BR, Midnight Run 31-1TFH, t12/11; cum 341K 9/19; watch for jump in production; off-line as of 5/18; no jump in production seen when it came back on line in 7/18; off line as of10/19; remains off line 1/20; back on line 9/20 but then off line again 1/21;
  • 20327, IA/2,443, BR, Midnight Run 41-1TFH, t12/11; cum 331K 1/20; off line 1/21;
  • 22675, IA/2,640, BR, Midnight Run 11-1TFH, t10/12; cum 292K 9/19; huge jump in 3/18; off line 8/19; remains off line 1/20; back online intermittently but off line again and remains off line 5/21;
  • 31317, 157 (no typo), BR, Midnight Run 2-8-12MTFH, t3/18; cum 266K 1/20; cum 345K 5/21;
  • 31318, 133 (no typo), BR, Midnight Run 3-8-12MBH, t3/18; cum 225K 1/20;
  • 31319, 448 (no typo), BR, Midnight Run 4-8-12MTFH, t3/18; cum 201K 1/20; cum 266K 5/21;
The graphic:

Random Update Of Several BR Midnight Run Wells -- Implications For The Bakken -- August 9, 2018

The note before the note: This is an incredibly important note on several levels regarding BR's Midnight Run wells. It might be a bit confusing, but it speaks volumes about the potential of the Bakken. Things to think about:
  • neighboring fracks
  • heel-to-toe / toe-to-heel (we first talked about this back on October 26, 2011)
  • 31-stage frack (rather than typical 60-stage frack)
  • 9 million lbs / 31 stage = almost 300,000 lbs / stage vs typical <200 bakken="" in="" lbs="" li="" nbsp="" stage="" the="">
  • daughter wells: TFH
  • parent wells: middle Bakken
The Midnight Run wells are tracked here.

The note:

This is quite cool. I highlighted this well some time ago:  Update On A Poorly Performing BR Midnight Run Well That Is Now Doing Well; No Explanation -- December 7, 2016. At that time, this was posted:
Update on a well that had a huge IP, but subsequent production was poor, and is now doing well:
  • 20323, 3,325, BR, Midnight Run 11-1MBH, Union Center, t12/11; cum 299K 10/16; poor producer after 1/15; most recent sundry form dated November, 2012 [until recently --  12/7/16]. There were two separate frack reports, but both fracks accomplished on two consecutive days in November, 2011. The first frack 11/9/11, 8 stages, 641K lbs; the second frack 11/10/11, 12 stages, 1.7 million lbs proppant; maximum recorded gas was 4,710 units with a 25' trip flare. The south leg total lateral was 100% in targeted dolostone pay; 0' above target; and 0' in the lower middle Bakken pay. Target pay was located at 11 - 26' beneath the base of the upper Bakken shale. The well went to INACTIVE status for several months in mid- and late-2015. API: 33-053-03438.
There is nothing in the file report to explain the production profile; there were no neighboring wells fraced at the time production improved.
At the link above, check out the graphic.

Then look at the updated graphic:

Note the new heel-to-toe well; the new well since the last time the graphic was updated:
  • 31317, 157, BR, Midnight Run 2-8-12MTFH, Union Center, Three Forks, 31 stages, 9.4 million lbs, t3/18; cum 55K 6/18;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Now, back to #20323, a Middle Bakken well --

Production at that time, 20323:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Look at the new production data, 20323, a Middle Bakken well:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

But even more incredibly, look at this earlier well. FracFocus -- no data that it was re-fracked, #20324, a Three Forks well:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

It gets better, another middle Bakken well; even farther away:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

And, it doesn't quit there, another well, farther to the west:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

 #24537: even farther to the west and even that one might have been affected:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

The Market, Energy, And Political Page, T+70 -- August 9, 2018 -- Is The State Purposely Making The Forest Fires Worse?

Haynesville monthly natural gas production, reaches five-year high:

New natural gas plant expansion proposed for McKenzie County. Link here. Will quadruple capacity at this one plant.
  • expand the Roosevelt Gas Plant
  • from 50 to 200 million cfpd
  • would be the 6th natural gas expansion or new plan under development in the state
  • located seven miles south of Watford City
  • the state has already penciled this one in -- see the spreadsheet for the state here
Natural gas fill rate (link here):

The Last Straw

Is Jerry Brown / California purposely making the record-breaking fires worse to "prove a point?" 
The state is rigorously following environmental regulations -- at the risk of making things worse; perhaps endangering lives. Google -- Commerce chief scolds California over environmental policies he says hinder firefighters: ‘Lives are at stake.'
But back to the straws. For those who missed it, from July 23, 2018:

It doesn't matter whether the data is correct or not; the question is how an entire industry and, the millennials, fell for his data. I guess the same way they fell for the global warming data -- if you say it enough times, it becomes fact. Public school education.

The Market, Energy, Political, And Fake News Page, T+70 -- August 9, 2018

Regardless of where the trade war stands on T+75, I plan to move on after that date. We'll have to see what the president tweets on Day 75 of the trade war. Right now I'm leaning toward "T+1 on Iran sanctions."

From CNM today:

Now, back to the market.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.

Wow, I'm in a good mood.

WTI: for investors, we are still well above the sweet spot. The sweet spot for me, is around $55-WTI. That's low enough to prevent any adverse effect on the overall economy, and the oil companies will do just fine. At $66-WTI, the oil companies should be doing very, very well, and the economy should do just fine. Saudi Arabia will pretty much implode if they can't get oil above current price point.

WTI: the consensus on the street suggests that oil will trend higher, although I have a bit of trouble thinking it will trend much higher than its recent highs.

Ticker symbols:
  • AAPL: hit a new high today. And it wasn't subtle: up over 1%; up over $2.25/share. Wow. Who wudda guessed? I was thinking that by now folks would be taking profits. My hunch: before the year is out, talk of a dividend increase will crescendo.
  • BRK-B: up slightly; nothing to write home about but going in the right direction.
  • NOG: nimble traders -- which I'm not -- could have done well on NOG today. It dropped almost ten percent shortly after the opening, trading below $3.00/share, but recovered, and is now down less than 5%, trading at $3.16. Had one bought 10,000 shares of NOG at $2.98 ($29,800) and then sold at $3.15, a nice gain of $1,700 in about one hour. Again, remember, this is not an investment site. 
  • ENB: up 1%; earlier this week it was reported that Enbridge would be bringing on-line $7 billion worth of projects by the end of the year
  • EEP: up 2%
  • EPD: up slightly less than 1%; also, the July, 2018, distribution was a bit higher than the July, 2017, distribution
  • KMI: up a bit less than 1%
  • TRP (the Keystone XL; the Trans Mountain folks): up over 1%; could "charge" Canada 26% more to complete the Trans Mountain project, and Canada really has no choice but to pay whatever it takes at this point
  • SRE: up slightly
  • S: up half a percent
  • COP is up 1% but CVX is down a bit 
The Book Page

I don't have the book in front of me so I can't quote from it.

The book:

She Has her Mother's Laugh: The Powers, Perversions, and Potential of Heredity, Carl Zimmer, c. 2018. Paging through it suggests it's the kind of book I generally don't like -- a great thesis, but veering off in all directions, but it's thick at 574 pages and will keep me occupied for the week.
I suppose I'm about a third of the way through the book, reading a couple of chapters each evening. I can't say I really, really enjoy the book, but it's written in such a way that makes it difficult to put it down. The writing seems a bit "wordy" and the author interjects a lot of banality with long passages about his immediate family that seem unnecessary, but there may be a "revelation" regarding his own daughters by the end of the book.

This is what makes the book fascinating: his unique way of connecting the dots with regard to following the "genetics" story. He seems to start off with some trivial point about genetics, develops the story over several pages, even over several chapters, connecting the dots, until a most interesting story develops.

The most recent example: somehow, the author got onto the subject of "feeblemindedness" which led to the Kallikak family and then to Vineland Training School. And, then after having brought up Pearl S Buck earlier, which confused me, the author comes back full circle to tell the story of Pearl Buck's only biological/natural daughter. Pearl Buck did have an adopted daughter.

One would think with my background in pediatrics, I would know "all there is to know" about PKU (phenylketonuria) but I completely missed this story.

It turns out the physician who "discovered" the cause of phenylketonuria was a Norwegian. I wish I had known that in high school. My absolutely wonderful eastern European chemistry teacher said he would have given me an "A" for the course if I could find any Norwegian that produced anything of value. LOL. It was all in great fun. I think. I hope.

I'm not sure I can recommend the book to the general audience, but for someone who likes connecting dots in the world of genetics, this book is very rewarding.

On another note, right, wrong, or indifferent, it was interesting to read the author's short summary of Rosalind, Watson, and Crick and their discovery of the nature of DNA.


Sophia can relate to this. Sophia loves playing "tag, you're it!"