Monday, November 25, 2024

The Southern White House -- November 25, 2024

Locator: 44424TRUMP.

The Dow: hits record high. The roaring 20s!

Richard Nixon: western White House.

Ronald Reagan: western White House.

Barack Obama: Hawaii.

Joe Biden: Delaware

DJT: Mar-a-Lago, Florida

Jay Gatsby: Long Island.

Link here.

The Day The Music Died -- November 25, 2024

Locator: 44423EVS.

From today, link here

Flashback, June 26, 2023.

Locator: 45073EVS. 

See: FF-91 Future.


From the linked article:

Faraday Future has officially launched its long delayed FF 91 electric vehicles, including a limited edition called the Futurist Alliance that carries a pretty hefty price tag of $309,000.
That's even more expensive than the $249,000 Lucid Air Sapphire, a "ultra-high-performance" EV with similar specs. The company's FF 91 2.0 Futurist model will sell for the same price as the Air Sapphire at $249,000, while the base FF 91 2.0, which is expected to be the most affordable of the three, doesn't have pricing yet.

Both the FF91 2.0 Futurist Alliance and Futurist models are powered by three electric motors and can go from 0 to 60mph in 2.27 seconds. The 1050 horsepower vehicles can go as fast as 155 mph, and their 142kWh battery can sustain a range of approximately 381 miles — shorter than the range of a Tesla Model S but longer than a Model Y's. They both have the same "zero gravity" seats that have a large recline angle for comfort, as well as 27-inch rear passenger displays.

And people think the Apple Vision Pro is expensive at $3,500.

From March 30, 2023

FF: EV production starts after months delay; FF91; it's much-delayed first luxury car, the FF 91 Futurist, California factory; shares rose 24% to 44 cents/share; longer range and better acceleration than Tesla, etc. No specifics.

MRO Reports Five Completed DUCs; Hess With Six New Permits -- November 25, 2024

Locator: 44422B.

NFL: only on Prime! Amazon Prime. This Friday, the day after Thanksgiving. Black Friday. The silver and black Raiders (I've long forgotten what city they now call home -- I still think of them as the Oakland Raiders) vs the Kansas City Chiefs. Friday afternoon. Kick-off, 3:00 p.m. And no extra cost for those who already subscribe to Amazon Prime.

Not exactly clear what the final tariffs will be: Evan is reporting CNBC:

  • an additional 10% tariff on China;
  • 25% tariff on Canada;
  • 25% tariff on Mexico.

DEI: Evan is reporting that Walmart is dropping diversity, equity, and exclusion programs. Link here to The WSJ.

EVs: the day the music died. Link here.

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $68.70.

Active rigs: 36.

Six new permits, #41369 - #41374, inclusive:

  • Operator: Hess
  • Field: Manitou (Mountrail)
  • Comments:
    • Hess has permits for six EN-Hanson wells, SESW 31-156-94; 
      • to be sited 1160 FSL and between 2177 FWL and 2012 FWL.

Three permits renewed:

  • Grayson Mill: three Tufto permits, Cow Creek, Williams County;

Five producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed;

  • 40130, 3,563, MRO, Bonnie USA 42-5TFH,
  • 40131, 5,821, MRO, Newman USA 42-5H,
  • 40132, 7,282, MRO, Rogers USA 4105TFH,
  • 40133, 7,387, MRO, Linder USA 41-5H,
  • 40134, 6,896, MRO, Reinhold USA 41-5TFH-2B,

Personal Monthly Utility Bill -- Electricity -- November 25, 2024

Locator: 44421ELECTRICITY.

Out monthly utility bill. We only have electricity, no natural gas.

Up until about a year ago, I worked very, very hard at conserving electricity. No longer. About a year ago, except for drying clothes at peak energy demand in the summer, I no longer care about our use of electricity. As a wag, I suppose, our monthly electricity bills have increased about 10%. An average "shoulder" month (spring, autumn) probably went from around $85 to $95?

Most recent bill:


Last year:

Top Story Of The Day For Our Neighborhood -- November 25, 2024

Locator: 44420HEB.

Link here

A new HEB -- groundbreaking this past week.

The map:

Biden's ICE Is Well-Prepared To Carry Out Trump's Deporation Plans -- November 25, 2024

Locator: 44419DEPORTATION.

Trump 2.0 is followed here.

From Forbes today:

The Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) is well prepared for President-elect Donald Trump’s plan to deport millions of undocumented immigrants when he takes office in January. In the three months prior to the November election, the agency signed $20 million in contracts for new phone hacking, surveillance and forensics technologies that can be used to spy on and track down the people Trump has vowed to expel from the country.

A Forbes review of recent ICE contracts found agreements to purchase an array of technologies that together can be used to surveil phone calls, texts and social media activity, identify people with facial recognition, remotely hack a smartphone and raid the contents of a device, including deleted data. These tools are made by a series of companies including Israel-based Paragon and Cellebrite, Canadian company Magnet Forensics, major American law enforcement contractor Pen-Link and the controversial facial recognition company Clearview AI. In the last five months, these companies received their largest federal purchase orders to date, all from ICE, contracting records show. 

While ICE will likely also use these technologies across its responsibilities, which include the investigation of cybercrime and child exploitation, critics warn they will become a powerful tool in Trump’s war against undocumented immigrants.

Will Owen of the Surveillance Technology Oversight Project described cellphone hacking spyware spending as “a frightening look at how the Trump Administration plans to carry out mass deportations through authoritarian means,” adding that “these technologies have been used in democracies around the world to undermine protected civil liberties.”   

My hunch: Palantir is in the mix. 

Later. Did someone mention Palantir? Link to Forbes.

Time to review DACA. Link to wiki. The US House and US Senate have had plenty of time to make this law, but so far, nothing. US Supreme Court heard oral arguments in October, 2024. Seems like a no-brainer.

Is the nub of the issue?
  • pro: although an "executive policy," the legislative branch has never passed a low to disallow it;
  • con: to be "law," needs to be passed by the US legislature

It's amazing how far one needs to read into the wiki article to find out which president signed this executive order / policy. But right now, the US House / Senate won't act until the US Supreme Court rules. 

The Day The Music Died -- November 25, 2024

Locator: 44418GREEN.

Can't wait to see what Trump has to say about COP30 next year.

Link here.


From the linked article:

The Azerbaijani hosts had hoped at the outset of COP29 that it would go down as one of the more successful meetings in the annals of the annual UN climate conference. Instead, the early view is that COP29 will go down as one of the more disappointing COPs to date.

Environmentalists are departing Baku feeling underwhelmed with the outcome, as COP29 negotiators backed away from an ambitious climate financing target and continued to bicker among themselves even over the significantly scaled back dollar goal

On November 22, 2024, the last scheduled day of COP29, the latest iteration of a draft agreement set a target of $250 billion annually in contributions from developed nations to combat the consequences of global warming, significantly less than the $1.3 trillion goal specified in the first draft agreement.

Some participants also indicated the drafts lack important details, such as which countries are expected to contribute how much. One significant stumbling block: EU representatives were reported to be calling for a significant increase in contributions from China, which had sought to garner admiration from developing countries by arguing for the $1.3 trillion goal.

Cramer's First Hour, Part 2 -- November 25, 2024

Locator: 44417CRAMER.

Cramer's first hour: a mix of facts, factoids, opinions from various sources -- often not cited -- while listening to Cramer's first hour on CNBC

Deportation, border security: huge opportunities for investing. I haven't seen Palantir mentioned yet, but my hunch is Palantir will be. 

DEI? Dead

Tariffs: how they changed under Trump

Value meals: link here.

From the linked WSJ article:

An estimated 81% of North American consumers have ordered a fast-food value meal in the past three months.

Around half said the promotions prompted them to eat out more often or switch chains.

But deals aren’t always translating to profit and don’t necessarily keep customers coming back, companies and analysts said, leading restaurant-chain executives to gut-check whether discounts and freebies are paying off.

Starbucks earlier this year dabbled with a coffee and breakfast item bundle starting at $5, but months later yanked it, saying the new discounts weren’t working.

I find this absolutely fascinating. Basically, every restaurant that tried value meals has ended the experiment. Except McDonald's. They still have the "$5 meal."

Most egregious: at Starbucks, an experiment to sell a cup of coffee and a 50-cent piece of bread for ... $5.00. Are you kidding us? Starbucks tried it, found they couldn't make it profitable, and dropped the promotion. A cup of coffee and a piece of bread for $5.00 and they couldn't turn a profit. McDonald's $5-meal" is an incredible bargain. I'm quite impressed. It's too much food for me, so I now go to McDonalds' and buy an al a carte meal of six McNuggests, fries, and a medium diet coke for $6. I had not gone to a McDonald's


Whoo-hoo! Cramer just mentioned Palantir (see above). Analyst raises target to $75.

**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  • If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia.
  • Longer version here.

Cramer's First Hour, Part 1 -- November 25, 2024

Locator: 44416CRAMER.

Cramer's first hour: a mix of facts, factoids, opinions from various sources -- often not cited -- while listening to Cramer's first hour on CNBC

Absolutely insane, link here:

Consumer tailwind: HELOC. Link here.

Housing: rentng vs buying. Link here.

Dow: opens at record high. 

S&P: on track for six consecutive "positive" day. At a record high.

10-year Treasury: continues to drop.

Buzz: the market is happy with Trump's treasury nomination.

**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  • If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia.
  • Longer version here.

ONEOK To Buy Rest Of EnLine Midstream -- November 25, 2024

Locator: 44415B.

Software pivot: link here. New word, "agent."

Oneok: to buy the rest of EnLink Midstream.

***************************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $70.13.

Tuesday, November 26, 2024: 41 for the month; 91 for the quarter, 618 for the year

  • 40672, conf, CLR, Carpenter 4-13H,
  • 37938, conf, BR, Parrish 4C TFH,

Monday, November 25, 2024: 39 for the month; 89 for the quarter, 616 for the year

  • 39751, conf, Hess, RS-F Nelson-156-91-2413H-6,

Sunday, November 24, 2024: 38 for the month; 88 for the quarter, 615 for the year

  • 40662, conf, CLR, Sandhill 4-24H,
  • 40352, conf, Grayson Mill, Sponheim 31-34F 5H,
  • 40105, conf, Enerplus, Devils Canyon 147-97-17-20-6H,
  • 40029, conf, Grayson Mill, Sponheim 31-34F 4H,
  • 40028, conf, Grayson Mill, Sponheim 31-34F 3H,
  • 37937, conf, BR, Parrish 4B MBH,
Saturday, November 23, 2024: 32 for the month; 92 for the quarter, 607 for the year
  • 40586, conf, SOGC (Sinclair), Harris Federal 2-31H,

RBN Energy: Enterprises' ambitioius goal for expanding its hydrocarbon liquids exports.

Enterprise Products Partners continues to grow its export capabilities and set ambitious goals, including one noted by CEO Jim Teague during his appearance at RBN’s recent NACON: PADD 3 conference — growing liquid hydrocarbon exports by about 50% to a remarkable 100 MMbbl per month (100 MMb/month), or about 3.33 MMb/d. And that doesn’t include the company’s planned Sea Port Oil Terminal (SPOT), which could send out up to 2 MMb/d! While that goal may seem lofty, Enterprise is already a major player in export markets and has extensive hydrocarbon delivery, storage and distribution assets in place to feed its coastal terminals. In today’s RBN blog, we look at the crude oil side of Enterprise’s export machine and show why supply will be key to meeting part of that ambitious goal.