Reading Tonight -- Nothing About The Bakken -- Or For That Matter -- Not About Very Much At All -- Good For The Archives -- January 8, 2024

6:11 p.m. PT January 8, 2025. Literally breaking now: a fifth fire break outs. Near the Hollywood sign. 

• in the Hollywood Hills being dubbed the Sunset Fire. 
• Runyon Canyon: right in the center of the Hollywood Hills
• West Hollywood, north side
• one of the more densely populated areas of Los Angeles
• an iconic spot; huge tourist destination
  

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Back to the Blog

Locator: 44644HARLEM.

Fires: my heart goes out to all the folks in California. Indescribably horrific. Four of the best years of my life were spent there. I've been back many times since. I know the area well. California is one place I could not live. I've tried it -- tried to live there -- but for indescribable reasons, I cannot / could not live there. At the end of the day, I think it comes down to this: I feel I don't deserve to live there. California is for the rich and famous. And for those who aspire to be rich and/or famous.

Winter storm Cora: meanwhile, here is Texas, we're looking forward to twelve hours with a bit of cold and some snow. Perhaps not even measurable on the south side of Dallas. We live on the north side; we're forecast to get maybe 2" of wet, heavy snow which probably won't stick around through Friday. The storm can be followed here (after this weekend, this link will disappear).

Plans: I'll be reading tonight. Helps put things in perspective. And it's a cozy thing to do on a dark and stormy night.

I'll finish Darryl Pinckney's essay on James Baldwin, in the January 16, 2025, issue of The New York Review, pp 23 - 25. James Baldwin, wiki entry, here. Early on in the essay, the author cites Gilbert Osofsky's Harlem: The Making of a Ghetto, first published in1966. I went to Amazon to order a copy. One can get the original for $5 or so, plus postage and handling. 

But I see the book was re-issued (re-printed?) in 1996. Baldwin, himself, died in 1987, in France, his adopted country. 

Connecting the dots -- the wiki entries and the essay in The New Yorker -- this should be a fascinating book. 

From Amazon:

From wiki:

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Seven New Permits; Twenty Permits Renewed; Five Permits Canceled; Nine DUCs Reported As Completed -- January 8, 2025

Locator: 44643B. 

WTI: $73.29.

Active rigs: 36.

Seven new permits, #41491 - #41497, inclusive:

• Operator: Hess (4); CLR (3)
• Fields: Juniper (McKenzie); Banks (McKenzie)
• Comments:
• Hess has permits for four BW-Wilson wells, SESW 36-149-99; 
• to be sited 350 FSL and 2078 / 2177 FWL;
• CLR has permits for a 3-well pad that will sit on a section line:
• CLR has a permit for a Garfield Federal well, SESE 5-152-99, 
• to be sited 280 FSL and 48 FEL (that's as close to a section line that I've ever seen but I've probably missed many such wells);
• CLR also has permits for two Boulder Federal wells, SWSW 4-152-99, 
• to be sited 280 FSL 16/48 FWL

Twenty permits were renewed (that must set some kind of record?):

• XTO (18):
• four Twin State Federal permits, Sand Creek, McKenzie County;
• four Ruby State Federal permits, Grinnell, McKenzie County;
• three Prairie Federal permits, Haystack Butte, McKenzie County;
• three Harley Federal permits, Sand Creek, McKenzie County;
• four Edwards Trust Federal permits, Haystack Butte, McKenzie County;
• MRO (2): State Willard (#30460) and State Loland (#30462), Murphy Creek (Dunn County)

Five permits canceled:

• XTO:
• four HBU Bjarne Federal permits, Williams County;
• one Marmon Federal permit, Williams County;

Nine producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 38100, 450, BR, Stafford 11-34TFH, McKenzie,
• 40386, 907, WPX, Missouri River 25-26HIL, Mountrail,
• 40387, 1,718, WPX, Missouri River 25-26HY, Mountrail,
• 40389, 2,324, WPX, Missouri River 25-26HW, Mountrail,
• 40390, 2,455, WPX, Missouri River 25-26HX, Mountrail,
• 40394, 745, WPX, Missouri River 25-26HUL, Mountrail,
• 40708, 2,605, MRO, Simmons 31-27H, Dunn County;
• 40824, 1,718, MRO, Akers 41-28H, Dunn County;
• 40838, 2,260, MRO, Sheehan 21-27H, Dunn County;

Wells of interest:

• 18842, 135, MRO, Tescher 11-27H, Bailey, t8/10; cum 651K 11/24; no recent jump in production; huge jump in production, 9/17.

BAKKEN	5-2018	31	16838	16832	9470	10652	7558	1839
BAKKEN	4-2018	24	15235	15196	13210	10041	2693	5591
BAKKEN	3-2018	25	15477	15521	18044	10768	8433	538
BAKKEN	2-2018	26	17356	17282	18611	11692	6384	3322
BAKKEN	1-2018	29	23820	23889	30412	17041	13573	759
BAKKEN	12-2017	22	20852	20816	24612	14321	8282	3699
BAKKEN	11-2017	25	16547	16593	18778	11933	8981	1047
BAKKEN	10-2017	31	28177	28108	34755	19296	13632	2465
BAKKEN	9-2017	16	16166	16203	142	11650	1128	8706
BAKKEN	8-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2017	2	11	49	49	37	25	0
BAKKEN	5-2017	31	869	839	194	746	433	36
BAKKEN	4-2017	30	839	845	201	748	438	42
BAKKEN	3-2017	29	797	771	284	692	371	79

• 16952, 508, MRO, Christensen 34-33H, Bailey, t6/08; cum 623K 11/24; no recent jump in production; huge jump in production 10/17.

BAKKEN	5-2018	31	14514	14363	11435	8077	982	5988
BAKKEN	4-2018	30	17304	17336	13971	9922	19	7876
BAKKEN	3-2018	25	19238	19124	15911	11003	31	8771
BAKKEN	2-2018	21	11675	11788	9983	7031	183	5488
BAKKEN	1-2018	31	24507	24442	23245	14326	4930	6591
BAKKEN	12-2017	17	15876	16004	13712	10632	3632	5214
BAKKEN	11-2017	24	13304	13104	11367	8961	0	7399
BAKKEN	10-2017	28	24230	24268	10559	16308	0	13557
BAKKEN	9-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2017	1	27	0	220	13	0	10
BAKKEN	5-2017	30	654	649	202	488	35	205
BAKKEN	4-2017	30	762	742	209	567	296	11

The Southern California Fires — January 8, 2025

Locator: 44642FIRES. 

Original Post, early morning, January 8, 2025. For the most part, the disaster had just begun.

Will post times/dates when updated (if I remember).

6:21 p.m. PT, January 8, 2025. No one is asking this question yet, but how long can these fires last? The Malibu Fire in 2018 started November 8, 2018, and was not fully contained until November 21, 2018. That fire burned just shy of 100,000 acres. Link here. The current Palisades Fire has burned about 16,000 acres. Another night of severe fires is still ahead of us.

6:11 p.m. PT, January 8, 2025. Literally breaking now: a fifth fire break outs. Near the Hollywood sign. 

• in the Hollywood Hills being dubbed the Sunset Fire. 
• Runyon Canyon: right in the center of the Hollywood Hills
• West Hollywood, north side
• one of the more densely populated areas of Los Angeles
• an iconic spot; huge tourist destination

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Original Post With Updates

Fires began overnight, January 7, 2025 — January 8, 2025. Wind gusts to nearly 100 mph set all-time records. Officials had planned / pre-positioned for one or two fires, never expected four fires. Did not have resources to fight four fires.

California fires:

• 0% controlled: first three fires at time of original post.
• three more hours until daylight (at time of original post, 3:36 a.m. PT, January 8, 2025)
  
• high winds won't begin to die down for several more hours
• peak wind hours right now (posted 3:36 a.m. PT, January 8, 2025)
•  Starlink absolutely critical for emergency services, news outlets, residents
• Starlink, wholly owned by SpaceX. Is it time for an EMX (Elon Musk ETF)?
• lack of brush clearance probably number one factor for loss of property once fires in California start
• something that's been known for decades; was mentioned this morning by reporters noting which neighborhoods took biggest hits
• question whether there is adequate water; Fire Department spokesmen say there is no shortage, but on the ground, some homeowners suggesting something else
• later: official Palisades fire department stated that hydrants at the. higher level did fail / run out of water, but it was for various causes, all of which could have been mitigated had the agencies taken appropriate action since the last major fire, lessons learned in 2011
• mayor of Palisades has not yet returned from her trip to Ghana; at 10:59 a.m. CT, January 8, 2025, it was stated she was on her last leg home, having departed DFW this morning.
  
• many, many big stories coming out of the Palisades fire
• one of the biggest fire breaks breached: the fire jumped the Pacific Coast Highway (PCH); reached the beach; took out historic sites, including the Reel Inn
• cars and at least one structure on the sand / on the beach were set on fire!
  
• major fires now, the first three occurred within hours of each other, late January 7, 2025:
• Eaton Canyon: 
• north of Los Angeles, north of Pasadena; Altadena.
  
• Hearst fire: 
• "the 210" and "the 5": 
• Sylmar to Santa Clara; northwest of Lost Angeles
• Sylmar fire: has been burning about six hours; began 10:00 p.m. local time, January 7, 2025
• lots of livestock, particularly horses
• broke out where "the 5" meets "the 410" and the"the 210"
  
• Palisades: 
• the one we're hearing the most about; west of Los Angeles; 
• Woodley: 
• fire, added 9:31 a.m. PST, January 8, 2025
  
• Sepulveda Valley, small fire; northwest corner of where "the 101" meets "the 405."
• apparently contained
  

Mexico Begins Breaking Up Caravans Headed To The US -- January 8, 2025

Locator: 44641TRUMP.

Mexico begins breaking up the caravans headed for the US after the president-elect speaks of tariffs on Mexico if Mexico does not assist with the southern surge. Link here.

One has to ask: where was the Biden administration these last four years. That's all it took: a verbal "threat" from a president-elect that tariffs were on the table. 

Wow.  

Interestingly, these same comments from the president-elect brought to an end the Trudeau administration in Canada.

The speed with which this all occurred was pretty much unprecedented. 

Southern Surge is a tag. 

Trump 2.0 is tagged here.

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Biden Administration Continues To Harass Trump During The Transition

The Trump haters are releasing reports, expediting sentencing, and Biden is not commenting except to say that he could have beaten Trump.

The WSJ had a great editorial on this earlier this week. One of the best Democrat analysts said the same thing: the Dems did not learn anything from the 2024 campaign. Americans don't care about these things. The Dems are still fighting the 2024 election. The Americans are tuning out. They want to see politicos work on problems facing the average American. 

For the archives. Not worth posting except for the archives.

*********************************
Palisades Fire

YouTube is doing an incredibly good job streaming live coverage -- much of it commercial-free -- of the California fires. 

Minimizes need to wait for David Muir at 5:30 p.m. local time. 

Coffee Prices Have Increased -- January 8, 2025

Locator: 44640COFFEE. 

This has to do with supply chain interruptions; not due to inflationary government spending. Similar to the egg-price issue. But folks will still blame it on government spending. Whatever.

I have a subscription through Amazon for coffee.

Amazon gives me plenty of time to manage the subscription. 

Note how much coffee prices have changed in the past few months:

It's Called "EPIC" For A Reason -- RBN Energy -- January 8, 2025

Locator: 44639B. 

Carter: significant delays in scheduled events; weather-related. 

• global warming impacts the DC area. Some folks using the word “unprecedented.”
  

California fires:

• 0% controlled
• three more hours until daylight
• high winds won't begin to die down for several more hours
• peak wind hours right now (posted 3:36 a.m. PT, January 8, 2025)
• Starlink absolutely critical for emergency services, news outlets, residents
• Starlink, wholly owned by SpaceX. Is it time for an EMX (Elon Musk ETF)?
• lack of brush clearance probably number one factor for loss of property once fires in California start
• something that's been known for decades; was mentioned this morning by reporters noting which neighborhoods took biggest hits
• question whether there is adequate water; Fire Department spokesmen say there is no shortage, but on the ground, some homeowners suggesting something else
• later: official Palisades fire department stated that hydrants at the. higher level did fail / run out of water, but it was for various causes, all of which could have been mitigated had the agencies taken appropriate action since the last major fire, lessons learned in 2011
• mayor of Palisades has not yet returned from her trip to Ghana; at 10:59 a.m. CT, January 8, 2025, it was stated she was on her last leg home, having departed DFW this morning.
  
• many, many big stories coming out of the Palisades fire
• one of the biggest fire breaks breached: the fire jumped the Pacific Coast Highway (PCH); reached the beach; took out historic sites, including the Reel Inn
• cars and at least one structure on the sand / on the beach were set on fire!
  
• three major fires now:
• Eaton Canyon: 
• north of Los Angeles, north of Pasadena; Altadena.
  
• Hearst fire: 210 and "the 5": 
• Sylmar to Santa Clara; northwest of Lost Angeles
• Sylmar fire: has been burning about six hours; began 10:00 p.m. local time, January 7, 2025
• lots of livestock, particularly horses
• broke out where "the 5" meets "the 410" and the"the 210"
  
• Palisades: 
• the one we're hearing the most about; west of Los Angeles;
  

Bully pulpit:

• Trump knows how to use it
• talking heads consistently tell us that Trump will have to cut back on "talk" once he actually needs to start "presidenting"
• those talking heads simply don't get it

Trump 2.0 tracked here:

• when one surfs the net, particularly X, one realizes how absolutely misguided the Biden administration was
• start with the  FTC chair
• end with Kamala Harris
• add Jennifer Granholm, among the top three
• Biden was in a class of his own
• truly, Carter lived long enough to see that he won't go down as America's worst president
• in Biden's case, the aphorism "cream rises to the top" does not apply
• playing with a 51-card deck (at best) 
• one of Biden's most important legacies for Trump: lowering the bar on pardons, presidential medals of freedom
  
• gives Trump lots of opportunities
  

EVs

• globally, can't make it without subsidies
• most recent examples, reported today, January 8, 2025
• China: adding / maintaining incentives to encourage folks to buy EVs
• Honda: likely to delay EV push under Trump

Immigration

• Massachusetts governor pivots; now supports Trump administration
• an incredibly amazing story that convinced the governor to change her position
  

Tech:

• the Nvidia story is incredible; not sure if older, legacy investors are paying attention:
• X may just be the best source for staying informed when it comes to tech 
• the recent "tech sell-off" is an absolute godsend for many invesetors
  

California national monuments: new, announced by Biden administration in last 24 hours --

• White House press release;
• top stories:

Off-shore wind: I've had this story in the queue for several days; just haven't had a chance to get to it. Trump took care of that. Link here. 

Executive orders: the nice thing about executive orders? The next president can generally reverse them if he/she wants to reverse them. But gives Congress time to consider them for making them law.

However, if a president has had four years to prepare, executive orders issued on Day 1 will be in effect for a minimum of four years, or until a court shuts them down. But we learned with Obama: it takes awhile for the court to act.

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $74.51.

The wells:

• Thursday, January 9, 2025: 14 for the month, 14 for the quarter, 14 for the year,
• 40758, conf, Neptune Operating LLC, Lee South 17-8-5 7H,
• 40563, conf, Empire North Dakota LLC, Sandpiper 29 1H,  
• Wednesday, January 8, 2025: 12 for the month, 12 for the quarter, 12 for the year,
• 40583, conf, Neptune Operating, Lee South 17-8-5 8H,
• 39999, conf, Hess, GO-State-157-97-2116H-6,

RBN Energy: the backstory behind Phillips 66's $2.2 billion plan to acquire EPIC NGL. Archived. RBN Energy has done an outstanding job covering this story. I can go back to at least December 8, 2016, when RBN Energy was posting blogs about this pipeline.

RBN Energy: Our Early Access blogs are normally exclusive to Backstage Pass subscribers.  However, due to the timely nature of today’s blog topic, we are opening this early access blog to all readers.

At first glance, you might think that Phillips 66’s newly announced, $2.2 billion plan to acquire the EPIC NGL pipeline system, two fractionators near Corpus Christi and other NGL-related assets in Texas is just another logical step in the expansion of P66’s “well-to-market” NGL strategy — and you’d be right. But the story is actually much more interesting, involving a long list of well-known midstream players and a long-running, still-evolving effort to dilute the Mont Belvieu NGL hub’s dominance. In today’s RBN blog, we spill the tea.

Ticker PSX: