Sunday, May 21, 2023

Focus On Fracking -- May 21, 2023

Locator: 44714B. 

Link here

Focus on fracking.

Lede:

  • oil rigs are below year ago levels for first time of pandemic recovery; 
  • April DUC well backlog fell to 4.6 months 
    • April DUCs down 32nd time in 34 months
  • Strategic Petroleum Reserve is at a new 39½ year low; 
  • oil and horizontal rigs fell below year ago levels for the first time of the pandemic recovery era; 

The "EIA discrepancy":

... the EIA just inserted a [+1,614,000] barrel per day figure onto line 13 of the weekly U.S. Petroleum Balance Sheet in order to make the reported data for the daily supply of oil and for the consumption of it balance out, a fudge factor that they label in their footnotes as “unaccounted for crude oil,” thus suggesting there was an omission or error of that magnitude in the week’s oil supply & demand figures that we have just transcribed…..
... furthermore, since last week’s “unaccounted for crude oil” was at (+771,000) barrels per day, that means there was a 842,000 barrel per day difference between this week's oil balance sheet error and the EIA's crude oil balance sheet error from a week ago, and hence the changes to supply and demand from that week to this one that are indicated by this week's report are complete nonsense...

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A Musical Interlude

Link here

Released, September 1967. I must have been a junior in high school, or thereabouts. The song probably "got to" Williston in September, 1968. LOL.


Link here. May, 1967; and, 1965.


I saw the show in December, 1969, along with three college friends -- an incredible cross-country trip over Christmas break -- four guys, two gals -- Sioux Falls, SD, to southern California -- the guys: Rich N, Richard M, John H and me.


Link here. The Aquarius Theater.

Best Post-Game Show Of Any Sport? May 21, 2023

Locator: 44713NBA.

Link here.

Best line all-night, an ad lib from Shaq, when asked if he had an answer: "Of course, I'm ShaqGPT." 

Sometimes PGA post-game shows are similarly good.

My Favorite Chart -- Data Through April 30, 2023

Locator: 44712ECON. 

It's my understanding that in the big scheme of things, the majority of Americans put their cash in only a few places, for example:

  • savings accounts;
  • checking accounts:
  • under their mattresses;
  • money market funds;

Banks use cash in one or two of those accounts to lend money to borrowers to keep the economy moving.

In one or two of those accounts above the money is not available to bankers to lend money to borrowers to keep the economy moving.

I could be wrong, but that's how I understand these things. 

If I'm wrong, I'm wrong.

Link here.

My favorite chart. Through April 30, 2023.

What's Wrong With This Picture? Foreign Exchange Reserves: Russia And Saudi Arabia -- May 21, 2023

Locator: 44711SAUDI.

Link here

Link here.

Flashback: 2020 -- Gasoline Prices -- May 21, 2023

Locator: 44710B.

Link here.

Stickley -- For The Archives -- May 21, 2023

Locator: 44709ARCH. 

Monk and Stickley Furniture: a picture-perfect Hollywood craftsman. Updated June 23, 2021.

Their first two years in the house, Odel made plans to freshen the plaster and do some repainting, but he quickly put those aside in favor of antique shopping. “Barbra Streisand had just made her famous purchase of the Gustav Stickley sideboard, and I thought, ‘Now the prices are going to skyrocket,'” Odel says. “So I dropped my paintbrushes and trowels for a year and went shopping.”

The Barbra Streisand connection:


May 22, 2023: YOLO, FOMO --



Micron In The News -- May 21, 2023

Locator: 44708CHIPS.

Micron was in the news today. Some spat with China.

China's cyberspace regulator said on Sunday that products made by U.S. memory chip manufacturer Micron Technology had failed its network security review and that it would bar operators of key infrastructure from procuring from the firm.

The decision, announced amid a dispute over chip technology between Washington and Beijing, could include sectors ranging from transport to finance, according to China's broad definition of critical information infrastructure.

I don't follow Micron; I don't invest in Micron.

I mention Micron once in awhile on the blog. 

This was the most significant post on Micron on the blog; from January 20, 2023.

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The Chip War

Chip War: The Fight For the World's Most Critical Technology, Chris Miller, c. 2022.

Chapter 21: The Potato Chip King -- The story of Micron

The chapter begins:

Micron made "the beset damn widgets in the whole world," Jack Simplot used to say.

The Idaho billionaire didn't know much about the physics of how his company's main product, DRAM chips, actually worked. 

The industry was full of PhDs, but Simplot hadn't finished eighth grade.

His expertise was potatoes, as everyone knew from the white Lincoln Town Car he drove around Boise [Idaho].

"Mr Spud, the license plate declared

Yet Simplot understood business in a way Silicon Valley's smartest scientists didn't. As America's chip industry struggled to adjust to Japan's challenge, cowboy entrepreneurs like him played a fundamental role in reversing what Bob Noyce had called a "death spiral and executing a surprise turnaround.

Later:

Micron, the DRAM firm that Simplot backed, at first seemed guaranteed to fail. When twin brothers Joe and Ward Parkinson founded Micron in the basement of a Boise dentist office in 1978, it was the worst possible time to start a memory chip company.

Japanese firms were ramping up production of high-quality, low-priced memory chips. Micron's first contract was to design a 64K DRAM chip for a Texas company called Mostek, but like every other American DRAM producer, it was beaten to the market by Fujitsu.

Soon Mostek -- the only customer for Micron's chip design services -- went bust. Amid an onslaught of Japanese competition, AMD, National Semiconductor, Intel, and other industry leaders abandoned DRAM production, too.

Facing billion-dollar losses and bankruptcies, it seemed like all Silicon Valley might go bankrupt. America's smartest engineers would be left flipping burgers [and asking "french fries with that?"]. At least, the country still had plenty of french fries.

... [At this time, Micron founders] first met Simplot at the Royal Café in downtown Boise .... a potato farmer like him saw clearly that Japanese competition had turned DRAM chips into a commodity market. He'd been through enough harvests to know that the best time to buy a commodity business was when prices were depressed and everyone else was in liquidation.

Simplot decided to back Micron with $1 million. He's later poured in millions more.

Many, many lessons there. One wonders if Simplot was worried about quarterly returns; one wonders what his time horizon? One wonders if Harvard Business School uses the Simplot-Micron story as a case study?

Later, we'll look more closely how this relates to China's chip problem right now, but first we have to look at how Russia failed. But that, too, is later. And I think Japan is taking note, also.

By the way, Trump made it possible for Biden to get credit for passing the "Chips" bill, one of three huge bills Biden passed in 2022. 

See this post. January 19, 2023: is anyone paying attention?

Internal Polling: The Million-Dollar Way Best Free Bakken Blog On The Internet — May 21, 2023

Locator: 44707BIGPHARMA.

Sunday afternoon, drifting off to sleep after Sunday dinner and here I am, reading the blog and realizing how great it really is. 

The  musical selection, alone, is worth the price of the subscription.

It’s come to my attention: a lot of folks are using passwords from their friends to access the blog.

I might have to add two-step authentification to stop this hack. It’s costing me a lot of mailbox money.

The prince formerly known as Harry, for example, is using Meghan’s password to access the blog. Harry says he wants to learn more about mineral royalties and the Bakken. 

For the record: two-step authentification is way beyond the skill set of either Sophia or me. 

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Swamp Pop

Swamp pop: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Johnnie_Allan.

Documentary, part one: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=

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Ozempic, Again

On another note: https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2023/05/ozempic-addictive-behavior-drinking-smoking/674098/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=atlantic-daily-newsletter&utm_content=20230521&utm_term=The%20Atlantic%20Daily.

I’ve talked about Ozempic recently: https://themilliondollarway.blogspot.com/2023/05/have-folks-underestimated-this-drug-may.html

Stories We'll Be Talking About This Next Week -- May 21, 2023

Locator: 44706NEWS.

Cava: Mediterranean restaurant; to go public; IPO announced.

Cash 'n Carry: willing to pause. Link to WSJ.

  • out front, is Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari the most recognizable member on the Fed?

Debt ceiling:

  • talks not going well;
  • most concerning: 
    • GOP leadership not able to frame “their” message;
    • Do the GOP even have a message?
    • do MAGA Republicans see blood in the water?
  • 14th Amendment; section 4.

Putin's War: indications things may not be going well for Ukraine. Has the tide changed?

PGA: USA championship. LIV players made it watchable.

NASCAR: 4:30 p.m. CT today. 

NBA

  • might Denver sweep LAL and LeBron?
  • tonight, Heat leads Boston Celtics in series, 2 - 0; third game tonight 
    • later: at start of 4th quarter, 93 - 63, Miami up by 30 points; looks like a sweep

Travel:

  • airlines will end paper tickets; link to WSJ. Just a matter of time.
  • big story: Alaska Airlines will replace ticket-printing kiosks with iPad luggage-tag printing only;
  • airlines looking to charge as much as $25 to print a paper ticket
  • won't affect "print-at-home" travelers

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A Musical Interlude

Video. I think Google/YouTube will block this -- force you to go to YouTube and may not end up on the video, so here's the link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SNKrBQCzQOI

AAPL: the headset.

  • the biggest challenge: to make sure folks understand the target audience for this new device
  • spoiler: it’s not your or me!

A trifecta

  • Amazon: AOC -- "I was right."
  • Disney: Ron -- "Here, hold my beer."
  • Bud: Mike -- "No, hold my Bud." [Link to The WSJ: "How Bud Lite Blew It."]

Southern Surge:

  • not much being reported;
  • hardly a national story; regional story at best;
  • in fact, it's down to cities and counties
  • all that talk about Title 42 -- just talk?

Trump goes woke? On Disney? Link to WSJ.

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We'll End With This 

Where I would rather be today.

Route 66. Oatman, AZ. 

Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A7VgR7cYVIQ


And finally, lunch while watching the PGA.

Initial Production Data For Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- May 21, 2023

Locator: 44705B.

The wells:

  • 39293, conf, Petro-Hunt, Hot Rod 149-102-27B-26-2H, Boxcar Butte, no production data,
  • 39241, conf, CLR, Meadowlark 4-6HSL, Jim Creek, no production data,
  • 39191, conf, Ovintiv USA, Rolfsrud 152-96-32-29-5H, Westberg, no production data,
  • 39167, conf, WPX, Pennington 16-15-14HHY, Big Bend, no production data,
  • 36292, conf, WPX, Skunk Creek 3-24-25-14HA, Mandaree, no production data,
  • 34952, conf, Formentera Operations, PTL4 03-27 164-92 B, Portal, no production data,
  • 34950, conf, Formentera Operations, FLX3 28-33 163-91 B, Portal, no production data,
  • 8324 (no typo), conf, White Rock, Barkland 1-18-2A, Bonnie View, first produced, 7/82,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-20212000
5-20211980
4-20212010
3-20212020
2-20212000
  • 39200, conf, Slawson, Voyager 4-28H, Big Bend, no production data,
  • 39192, conf, Ovintiv, Rolfsrud 152-9632-29-16H, Westberg, no production data,
  • 39168, conf, WPX, Pennington 16-15HB, Big Bend, no production data,
  • 39240, conf, CLR, Skachenko FIU 6-13H, Jim Creek, no production data,
  • 38878, conf, Whiting, Smith 12-7-2H, Sanish,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
3-20231830618929
2-20231245218619
1-20231536314481
12-2022141176681
  • 39169, conf, WPX, Pennington 16-15-13HZ, Big Bend, no production data,
  • 38968, conf, Hess, GO-Aslakson-156-97-2734H-5, Dollar Joe,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
3-20231428439474
2-20231256533801
1-20231038515900
12-20222205926288
11-202264294765
  • 39239, conf, CLR, Skachenko FIU 5-31H1, Jim Creek, no production data,
  • 39170, conf, WPX, Pennington 16-15HCL, Big Bend, no production data,
  • 39238, conf, CLR, Skachenko FIU 4-31HSL, Jim Creek, no production data,
  • 38969, conf, Hess, GO-Aslakson-156-97-2734H-4, Dollar Joe,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
3-20231600045649
2-20231680643262
1-20231882043380
12-20221586728769
  • 38943, conf, Iron Oil Operating, Antelope 4-32-29H, Sather Lake,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
3-20231300112509
2-2023139990
1-20231560713890
12-20221047011245
11-202216850
  • 37848, conf, Slawson, Genesis 3-13H, Big Bend, no production data,
  • 37850, conf, Slawson, Genekat Federal 6-13-12TFH, Big Bend, no production data,
  • 37849, conf, Slawson, Loon Federal 3-24-35, Big Bend, no production data,
  • 38854, conf, Whiting, Littlefield 11-21HU, Sanish,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
3-20232851923913
2-20232749323213
1-20232588020948
12-20221154727
11-2022021
  • 37851, conf, Slawson, Loon Federal 6-24-25TFH, Big Bend, no production data,
  • 38970, conf, Hess, GO-Aslakson-156-97-2734H-3, Dollar Joe,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
3-20231570244001
2-20231716244440
1-20231607341297
12-20221916651709
11-20221665828599
  • 37852, conf, Slawson, Loon Federal 7-24-25TFH, Big Bend, no production data,
  • 39287, conf, CLR, Smouse 9-28H, West Capa, no production data,

Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- May 21, 2023

Locator: 44704B.

Wednesday, May 31, 2023: 58 for the month; 110 for the quarter, 365 for the year
 None (there was no November 31, 2022)

Tuesday, May 30, 2023: 58 for the month; 110 for the quarter, 365 for the year
39293, conf, Petro-Hunt, Hot Rod 149-102-27B-26-2H,
39241, conf, CLR, Meadowlark 4-6HSL,
39191, conf, Ovintiv USA, Rolfsrud 152-96-32-29-5H,
39167, conf, WPX, Pennington 16-15-14HHY,
36292, conf, WPX, Skunk Creek 3-24-25-14HA,
34952, conf, Formentera Operations, PTL4 03-27 164-92 B,
34950, conf, Formentera Operations, FLX3 28-33 163-91 B,
8324 (no typo), conf, White Rock, Barkland 1-18-2A,

Monday, May 29, 2023: 50 for the month; 102 for the quarter, 357 for the year
39200, conf, Slawson, Voyager 4-28H,

Sunday, May 28, 2023: 49 for the month; 101 for the quarter, 356 for the year
39192, conf, Ovintiv, Rolfsrud 152-9632-29-16H, Westberg,
39168, conf, WPX, Pennington 16-15HB,

Saturday, May 27, 2023: 47 for the month; 99 for the quarter, 354 for the year
39240, conf, CLR, Skachenko FIU 6-13H,
38878, conf, Whiting, Smith 12-7-2H,

Friday, May 26, 2023: 45 for the month; 97 for the quarter, 352 for the year
39169, conf, WPX, Pennington 16-15-13HZ,
38968, conf, Hess, GO-Aslakson-156-97-2734H-5,

Thursday, May 25, 2023: 43 for the month; 95 for the quarter, 350 for the year
39239, conf, CLR, Skachenko FIU 5-31H1,
39170, conf, WPX, Pennington 16-15HCL,

Wednesday, May 24, 2023: 41 for the month; 93 for the quarter, 348 for the year
39238, conf, CLR, Skachenko FIU 4-31HSL,
38969, conf, Hess, GO-Aslakson-156-97-2734H-4,
38943, conf, Iron Oil Operating, Antelope 4-32-29H,
37848, conf, Slawson, Genesis 3-13H,

Tuesday, May 23, 2023: 37 for the month; 89 for the quarter, 344 for the year
37850, conf, Slawson, Genekat Federal 6-13-12TFH,
37849, conf, Slawson, Loon Federal 3-24-35H,

Monday, May 22, 2023: 35 for the month; 87 for the quarter, 342 for the year
38854, conf, Whiting, Littlefield 11-21HU,
37851, conf, Slawson, Loon Federal 6-24-25TFH,

Sunday, May 21, 2023: 33 for the month; 85 for the quarter, 340 for the year
38970, conf, Hess, GO-Aslakson-156-97-2734H-3,
37852, conf, Slawson, Loon Federal 7-24-25TFH,

Saturday, May 20, 2023: 31 for the month; 83 for the quarter, 338 for the year
39287, conf, CLR, Smouse 9-28H,