Tuesday, July 19, 2022

Grapevine Lake, Texas -- Summer, 2022

Isn't this a great photo?


We had another record-setting high temperature day here in DFW, 109°F, today. The Texas grid, ERCOT, easily held. There were no requests by the ERCOT authorities for folks to conserve electricity. 

I spent almost all day in the pool. Crystal clear water and quite cool. 

Inflation, Again -- July 19, 2022

Updates

July 20, 2022: housing market in free fall. Or not.

Original Post 

Whenever I see stories about high inflation here in the states, I keep coming back to this graph:

I was reminded of that when I came across this today (link: https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts/status/1549346241737379843):

I now follow Lance Roberts.

Production Changes Month-Over-Month, May-Over-April, 2022

Folks who think they "know" the Bakken may want to spend some time on this one.

I would be curious if anyone can explain this.

Assuming I did all the math correctly and that's a huge assumption, but look at this:

The number of wells offline for operational reasons:

  • May, 2022: 2,944
  • April, 2022: 2,403
  • so, in May, month-over-month, there was an increase of 541 wells taken off line
  • those 541 wells represents an INCREASE of wells taken off line by almost 25%
  • got that? 25% more wells were off line in May than in April. Twenty-five percent.

The number of producing wells:

  • May, 2022: 16,953
  • April, 2022: 16,896
  • in other words, month-over-month, May-over-April, the number of producing wells increased by 57
  • as a percentage, that was an increase of 0.3%. Not 30%. Not 3%. Not even one percent, but a third of one percent.

Now, take a look at this:

  • oil production, month-over-month, May-over-April increased by 17%. Seventeen percent.
  • natural gas production, month-over-month, May-over April increased by 14%. Fourteen percent.

Anyone want to hazard a guess. 

I'll discuss it later.

It's not rocket science. Again, assuming I did the math correctly.

Production Changes Month-Over-Month, May - April, 2022

Most recent "dashboard" for the Bakken:

Production change, month-over-month:

Oil:

  • April, 2022: 905,357bbls / day (revised, final)
  • May, 2022: 1,058,721
  • delta, bopd: 153,364
  • delta, percent: up 17%
  • revised revenue forecast: from 1.2 million bbls to 1.0 million bbls

Gas production and capture:

  • April, 2022: 2,451,679 MCF / day (revised, final)
  • May, 2022: 2,787,671 MCF / day
  • delta, MCF / day: 355,992 MCF / day
  • delta, percent: up 14%

Now compare that data with wells offline for operational reasons for the past three months:

Data for past several months; full list is tracked here:

May, 2022: huge blizzard shut things down

  • inactive: 2,448
  • DUCS: 496
  • total off line for operational reasons: 2,944
  • producing: 16,953

April, 2022: huge blizzard shut things down

  • inactive: 1,909
  • DUCS: 494
  • total off line for operational reasons: 2,403
  • producing: 16,896

March, 2022:

  • inactive: 1,928
  • DUCS: 451
  • total off line for operational reasons: 2,379
  • producing: 16,746

Update Of Wells Offline For Operational Reasons -- July 19, 2022

Data for past several months; full list is tracked here:

April, 2022: huge blizzard shut things down

  • inactive: 2,448
  • DUCS: 496
  • total off line for operational reasons: 2,944
  • producing: 16,953

April, 2022: huge blizzard shut things down

  • inactive: 1,909
  • DUCS: 494
  • total off line for operational reasons: 2,403
  • producing: 16,896

March, 2022:

  • inactive: 1,928
  • DUCS: 451
  • total off line for operational reasons: 2,379
  • producing: 16,746

February, 2022:

  • inactive: 1,872
  • DUCS: 463
  • total off line for operational reasons: 2,335
  • producing: 16,746

Director's Cut Posted -- May, 2022, Data

Director's Cuts are tracked here

May, 2022, data posted here.

Wells offline for operational purposes tracked here.

Oil:

  • April, 2022: 905,357 bbls / day (revised, final)
  • May, 2022: 1,058,721 bbls / day (preliminary)
  • delta, bopd: 153,364
  • delta, percent: up 17%
  • revised revenue forecast: from 1.2 million bbls to 1.0 million bbls

Crude oil price:

  • today: $100.50
  • May, 2022: $105.77
  • April, 2022: $100.16

Gas production:

  • April, 2022: 2,451,679 MCF / day (revised, final)
  • May, 2022: 2,787,671 MCF / day
  • delta, MCF / day: 355,992 MCF / day
  • delta, percent: up 14%

Rigs and wells:

  • rigs:
    • today: 42 (includes at least one SWD rig)
    • June: 42
    • May: 40
    • April: 38
  • permitted:
    • June: 77
    • May: 68
    • April: 55
  • completed:
    • June: 27 (preliminary)
    • May: 53 (revised)
    • April: 33  (said to be preliminary but probably final)
  • inactive:
    • May: 2,448
    • April: 1,909
  • DUCs
    • May: 496
    • April: 494
  • producing:
    • May: 16,953
    • April: 16,896
    • May to April: 0.3% increase in number of producing wells.

DUC Report -- July 19, 2022

A reader sent me the recent data for DUCs from all major oil and gas plays in the US. I only post the Bakken data.

Bakken DUCs: from a reader, most recent data, down below.

The reader noted that in the big scheme of things, there were relatively few completions.

I replied: I didn’t have the numbers but I was suspecting that. I don’t think the refiners have any spare capacity.

The reader's reply:

Yes, and they're getting all the oil they need from the SPR...why work for what comes from the govt without any effort?
Something i meant to add as a comment; last week's Petroleum Status Report summary said "U.S. crude oil inventories are about 5% below the five year average for this time of year." 
I knew that couldn't be right, so i did the math and found crude inventories were almost 8% below the 5 year average. I was surprised they had that wrong; I had assumed those summaries were somehow automated. 
I'll be watching that tomorrow, to see if they fix it..


Bakken


Drilled

Completed

DUC

Dec-13

--

--

570

Jan-14

178

143

605

Feb-14

210

158

657

Mar-14

224

218

663

Apr-14

217

207

673

May-14

226

208

691

Jun-14

236

225

702

Jul-14

250

243

709

Aug-14

226

207

728

Sep-14

256

232

752

Oct-14

186

243

695

Nov-14

209

202

702

Dec-14

224

194

732

Jan-15

197

193

736

Feb-15

230

151

815

Mar-15

182

170

827

Apr-15

142

127

842

May-15

124

139

827

Jun-15

110

135

802

Jul-15

102

124

780

Aug-15

111

101

790

Sep-15

99

92

797

Oct-15

118

84

831

Nov-15

100

89

842

Dec-15

98

78

862

Jan-16

71

80

853

Feb-16

61

41

873

Mar-16

68

45

896

Apr-16

43

39

900

May-16

46

59

887

Jun-16

42

54

875

Jul-16

45

56

864

Aug-16

53

82

835

Sep-16

49

66

818

Oct-16

59

85

792

Nov-16

61

86

767

Dec-16

53

49

771

Jan-17

62

52

781

Feb-17

51

58

774

Mar-17

78

71

781

Apr-17

78

104

755

May-17

94

82

767

Jun-17

76

105

738

Jul-17

95

103

730

Aug-17

99

110

719

Sep-17

98

97

720

Oct-17

104

110

714

Nov-17

93

86

721

Dec-17

77

65

733

Jan-18

107

72

768

Feb-18

74

74

768

Mar-18

95

90

773

Apr-18

109

110

772

May-18

124

131

765

Jun-18

108

118

755

Jul-18

134

155

734

Aug-18

108

138

704

Sep-18

108

122

690

Oct-18

120

118

692

Nov-18

110

99

703

Dec-18

108

70

741

Jan-19

120

71

790

Feb-19

108

56

842

Mar-19

111

110

843

Apr-19

118

112

849

May-19

127

127

849

Jun-19

118

149

818

Jul-19

122

122

818

Aug-19

122

144

796

Sep-19

110

88

818

Oct-19

116

108

826

Nov-19

96

88

834

Dec-19

94

86

842

Jan-20

99

98

843

Feb-20

94

100

837

Mar-20

94

108

823

Apr-20

69

33

859

May-20

33

14

878

Jun-20

18

11

885

Jul-20

18

22

881

Aug-20

19

27

873

Sep-20

18

51

840

Oct-20

19

41

818

Nov-20

20

31

807

Dec-20

20

50

777

Jan-21

20

41

756

Feb-21

19

24

751

Mar-21

25

45

731

Apr-21

27

46

712

May-21

29

62

679

Jun-21

31

33

677

Jul-21

32

63

646

Aug-21

39

71

614

Sep-21

42

81

575

Oct-21

43

82

536

Nov-21

46

78

504

Dec-21

52

75

481

Jan-22

53

75

459

Feb-22

64

75

448

Mar-22

66

76

438

Apr-22

58

69

427

May-22

74

76

425

Jun-22

76

77

424