The MRO Semerad Pad In Bailey Oil Field -- The Bakken Halo Effect — Posted December 17, 2025

Locator: 49726MRO. 

The Bailey oil field is probably the Bakken oil field best known for the “halo” effect.

The wells:

• 16868, IA/294, MRO Knudsvig 24-7H, Bailey oil field, Dunn County; t3/08; cum 215K 6/25; 

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	10-2025	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2025	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2025	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2025	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2025	25	462	485	157	466	220	129
BAKKEN	5-2025	9	122	287	45	117	34	43
BAKKEN	4-2025	8	150	132	68	136	41	56
BAKKEN	3-2025	15	233	224	209	220	57	89

• 41521, 3,899, MRO, Semerad 11-18H, Bailey oil field, Dunn County; 
• 41520, A/conf, MRO, Clawson 11-18H, Bailey oil field, Dunn County; t--; cum --:  npd;
• 41519, A/drl, MRO, Partridge 41-13H, Bailey oil field, Dunn County; t10/15; cum --: 

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	10-2025	1	1487	1467	3796	112	105	3

• 41518, A/AL, MRO, Patton 44-12H, Bailey oil field, Dunn County; t10/15; cum 21K over nine days extrapolates to 71K over 30 days;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	10-2025	9	21176	20893	20662	1598	1491	43

Well of interest: 

• 19775, 2,645, BR, Patton 31-1H, Bailey oil field, t7/11; cum 449K 10/25; 

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	10-2025	29	4222	4313	3693	2306	1956	238
BAKKEN	9-2025	13	3589	2932	2727	2090	1500	540
BAKKEN	8-2025	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2025	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2025	9	400	675	424	331	271	27
BAKKEN	5-2025	27	1553	1361	1894	1395	1175	112
BAKKEN	4-2025	27	1647	1753	1136	1315	1088	118
BAKKEN	3-2025	26	1651	2010	1132	1453	1211	137
BAKKEN	2-2025	22	1202	1137	800	739	570	88

The maps:

 

Eleven New Permits, Five Permits Renewed, Two Permits Canceled; Six DUCs Reported As Completed -- December 17, 2025

Locator: 49725B. 

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $56.93.

Active rigs: 32 (recent high).

Eleven new permits, #42568 - #42578, inclusive:

• 42568, conf, Spotted Hawk, Bacchus 21-1H, Van Hook, NENW 18-150-91, 388 FNL 1501 FWL;
• 42569, conf, Spotted Hawk, Bacchus 21-18H, Van Hook, NENW 18-150-91, 408 FNL 1479 FWL;
• 42570, conf, Spotted Hawk, Demeter 21-18H, Van Hook, NENW 18-150-91, 427 FNL 1456 FWL; 
• 42571, conf, Spotted Hawk, Epsilon 21-18H, Van Hook, NENW 18-150-91, 447 FNL 1434 FWL;
• 42572, conf, Spotted Hawk, Gamma 21-1H, Van Hook, NENW 18-150-91, 487 FNL 1389 FWL;
• 42573, conf, Spotted Hawk, Omega 21-1H, Van Hook, NENW 18-150-91, 526 FNL 1344 FWL;
• 42574, loc, Phoenix Operating, Ride The Lightning Fed 18-19-30-31 1HF, Moline, lot 1, section 18-149-102, 401 FNL 1237 FWL;
• 42575, loc, Phoenix Operating, Ride The Lightning Fed 18-19-30-31 2HF, Moline, lot 1, section 18-149-102, 401 FNL 1267 FWL;
• 42576, loc, Phoenix Operating, Ride The Lightning 18-19-30-31 3HF, Moline, lot 1, section 18-149-102, 401 FNL 1297 FWL;
• 42577, loc, Phoenix Operating, Ride The Lightning 18-19-30-31 4HF, Moline, lot 1, section 18-149-102, 401 FNL 1327 FWL;
• 42578, loc, Phoenix Operating, Ride The Lightning 18-19-30-31 5HF, Moline, lot 1, section 18-149-102, 401 FNL 1357 FWL.

Five permits renewed:

• Devon Energy, four Pyramid permits and one Hawkeye permit, all NWNW 15-154-101, Todd oil field, Williams County; maps and details.

Two permits canceled:

• 35911, PNC, Ballard Petroleum, Borstad 30-5, Bottineau County:
• 41184, PNC, KODA Resources, Stout 0622-2BH, Divide County;

Six producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 28514, 1,937, CLR, 1,937, Berlain 5-30H, McKenzie County;
• 38671, 872, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-3A-33 1H, McKenzie County;
• 41348, 853, CLR, Carlton 2-7H, Williams County;
• 41426, 1,306, EOG, Mandaree 149-2008H, McKenzie County;
• 41519, 1,297, MRO, Partridge 41-13H, Dunn County;
• 41521, 3,899, MRO, Semerad 11-18H, Dunn County; see this post. 

Bud -- It's Not Back To Normal And Probably Never Will Be -- December 17, 2025

Locator: 49724BEER.

On another note, in the old days (two years ago), even if I wanted to research this question, it would have taken me hours (days?) and I doubt I would have gotten a definitive answer. Today, the query took ... what .... 30 seconds?

AI prompt: 

Following the Bud Lite scandal in 2023 with regard to an influencer, is everything "back to normal" for Bud Lite? 

Reply:

Wow, what a debacle! 

My favorite beer: "Half-Life," one of a dozen or more different brews by the Dallas-based Manhattan Project, and by far, the most economical beer choice in our local area.

Energy Needs, AI, Humans, Dolphins -- December 17, 2025

Locator: 49723ARCHIVES.

Energy: this came up in discussion with ChatGPT with regard to energy usage, a topic that started with AI. It was a very, very long discussion with ChatGPT with regard to the correlation (direct?) of energy demand by the human brain and that of AI. As tokenization and parameters increase, AI energy needs will only increase, all things being equal. 

That discussion with ChatGPT was carried on some weeks ago and I completely forgot about it until I heard some comments Jim Cramer made yesterday with regard to energy demands of large AI centers (which have much in common with the human brain). Cramer made a statement that I thought was glaringly wrong and his co-anchor thought the same thing. Fact-checking proved Cramer was indeed wrong. In the screen shots below, note the words "significant" and "overwhelmingly." So, although mitigating energy demand driven by cabling will help, that's not, as Willie Sutton would say, where the money is.

Amount of energy the human brain needs as a percentage of total human energy:

Amount of energy the dolphin brain needs as a percentage of total dolphin energy:

Stretching prior to starting jiu-jitsu practice: 

Link here.

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Book Page

It's absolutely surprising how interesting and enjoyable it is to read Charles Dickens' Tale of Two Cities. About half-way through, maybe ten to twenty pages / day. Should finish within the next couple of weeks. 

Trump's Son-In-Law Drops Out -- Won't Support Paramount's Bid -- December 17, 2025

Locator: 49722INVESTING.

WBD: in general, this is one of several stories that interest me not at all. Until now. Without question, most interesting investing story this morning. Nancy Pelosi must be fuming. Just when she had it figured out.

This is a huge development that came out today that was not previously known by many:

AI prompt:

Warner Brothers Discovery (WBD): with a Netflix "win," WBD will be able to spin off assets if it wants. WIth a Paramount "win," WBD is not allowed to spin off any assets before the deal is closed. It that correct?

The reply:

This is an incredible development. 

Reminder: Trump's son-in-law has dropped out; no longer supporting Paramount. The bigger question: now that Trump's son-in-law has dropped out, will the "Saudis" also drop out of their support of Paramount. Right now, the buzz is that Ellison doesn't have the needed cash even at this point, and if he has to come back with a bigger bid, it's all over. 

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Other News

AMZN: partners with Sam Altman. Or vice versa. Links everywhere. One link here. 

Tale of the tape:

• Robinhood (HOOD): up 224% this year.
• Sweetgreen (SG): down 81% this year.
• focus groups persistently, consistently, predictably say they want better / healthier food options, but they go with pizza delivery over take-out salad. 

Families: Trump's, Biden's, Reiner's. Lots of discussion in social media overnight. 

Sports: Spurs. Link to TWSJ. Glowing analysis, but in the end, the Knicks defeat the Spurs for "The Cup" championship.

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Inflation Watch

This is a most unscientific, useless piece of data but it's what I'm seeing in my neighborhood. Price of eggs is generally tracked at Walmart. Romaine lettuce is back to normal.

Percent changes (in bold red) are compared to the base year, 2014, not year-over-year. Most alarming, without question, is the cost of mailing/shipping. The high cost of USPS is offset by a) almost no letter mail any more -- has long been replaced by e-mail; and, b) almost no shipping, replaced almost entirely by Amazon Prime, free shipping.

Rent: in addition, most important to us, I suppose, is our rent. We generally sign for longest lease available if we have no plans to move.

As long as I can remember, we have signed 18-month leases.

We just signed our new 18-month lease, begins next March, 2026. Signing three months is advance gets us a nice monthly discount and a little bit of a one-time incentive at the start of the lease for signing early. Whoo-hoo.

Our lease for the next 18 months did not go up / did not increase. Okay, it did, a little -- $18 / month. The price of two $9-lattes at Starbucks.  

Beef: what are y'all paying for beef in your neck of the woods. Screenshots of our grocers' circulars from yesterday: 

If I can't grill, perhaps this is the second best option. This is an incredible deal, available at Walmart. I don't know what it costs, but it amounts to about what I would pay for the beef alone (at non-discounted prices). Slow-cooking. I will add significantly more carrots, celery, green beans, as well as additional spices. I would add more potatoes but the slow cooker can only hold so much, LOL.

Wednesday, December 17, 2025

Locator: 49721B.

Pipeline: Texas --> California. PSX and KMI. Link here. 

Coal: IEA continues to spin the story. Nothing to see here. Coal usage continues to increase and will do so for years to come. Track today's IEA story on coal on x. Link here. Link here.

Weather: incredibly warm across the nation for this time of year. North Texas will soon get to near 80°F.  

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Back to the Bakken 

WTI: $56.52. WTI jumps $1.50 on Trump's blockade (or as CNBC has it, "blockade") of Venezuela. By the way, that blockade of Venezuela? A two-for-one for the State Department -- Cuba is collateral damage. 

New wells reporting:

• Thursday, December 18, 2025: 43 for the month, 166 for the quarter, 750 for the year, 
• 41300, conf, Hess, BL-Herfindahl-LW-156-95-3031H-1, 
• 40846, conf, Devon Energy, Grand National 34-36F-3H, 
• Wednesday, December 17, 2025: 41 for the month, 164 for the quarter, 748 for the year,
• 41525, conf, Petro-Hunt, Torgerson 158-94-15C-10-2H, 
• 41524, conf, Petro-Hunt, Torgerson 158-94-15C-10-1H, 
• 41107, conf, Devon Energy, Helling 16-21 3H, 
• 40964, conf, Devon Energy, Costanza 24-13 3TFH,  

Costanza wells, Devon Energy: amazing wells. Link here. 

RBN Energy: Vermont -- one state's drive to slash GHGs slams into reality, and send a warning to others. Link here. Archived.

Five years ago, Vermont enacted a law requiring steep reductions in its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. To help achieve that legally binding mandate, the state in 2023 approved a statute directing regulators to develop an incentives-based program under which heating oil and propane suppliers would drive households and businesses toward electric heat pumps, biodiesel and other lower-carbon space-heating alternatives. But regulators determined this year that the plan would be too costly and would hit Vermont’s many low-income residents the hardest. Now everything’s in limbo. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll discuss what happened when the Green Mountain State’s good intentions encountered the realities of a major fuel initiative, and what Vermont’s experience implies for ambitious programs in other states. 

Many would argue that Vermont is the quirkiest of the 50 states, with an independent streak a mile wide and — dear to our hearts here at RBN — a homegrown ice cream company with a penchant for naming many of its flavors after music and musicians (Cherry Garcia, Bohemian Raspberry and Goodbye Yellow Brickle Road, to name just a few). It’s certainly the snowiest state, with average annual snowfall of 90 inches (!), and one of the coldest (seventh overall, with an average winter temperature of 22°F). As locals put it in their own inimitable way, Vermont has four seasons: almost winter, winter, still winter, and road construction — the last of these tied to the wear-and-tear from seemingly endless snowplowing and road-salting.

With all that cold weather and snow, it should come as no surprise that home heating is a major topic of conversation. Vermont is different here, too: Only 17% of the state’s homes (all of them in northwestern Vermont) have natural gas heat, compared to 46% of the U.S. as a whole, and a miniscule 10% of Vermont homes rely on electric heat (mostly heat pumps or electric baseboard), way below the 42% U.S. average. Instead, most Vermonters turn to either heating oil (36%), propane (20%; see photo below), or — far more than any other state — wood (14%). About 3% comes from other sources, including biodiesel derived from used cooking oil. (All stats are the latest available from the EIA.

A snow-covered propane tank used for home heating. Source: National Propane Gas Association

Space heating for Vermont’s commercial and industrial sectors also leans heavily toward heating oil and propane (with an assist from natural gas, again in the northwest), though it must be said that renewables are on the rise. For example, Ben & Jerry’s main plant in St. Albans, VT, gets most of its heat from biogas produced by anaerobic digesters that break down out-of-spec ice cream and other organic waste.

According to Vermont’s latest Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory (see Figure 1 below), residential/commercial/industrial heating (aka “RCI fuel use”) accounted for a hefty 33% of the state’s GHG emissions in 2022 (right-most blue bar segment), the most recent year with complete data. Only the transportation sector, with 39% (right-most light-purple bar segment), contributed more — mostly from salt-encrusted Subaru Outbacks, we’d guess. The state’s electric industry, which secures virtually all its power from renewable sources (primarily hydroelectric, but also solar and wind), accounted for only 3% (right-most aqua bar segment).