The Book Page -- April 22, 2025

Locator: 48489USAF.

Received today.

Couldn't be happier.

Amazing "book."

The C-130 was never my assigned aircraft, but I logged more hours in the C-130 than any of my assigned aircraft over my 30-year USAF career. Two of may assigned a/c were the F-15D and the F-111F.

The C-130 was designed to carry somewhat less than 100 troops, with a crew of five (with the C-130J model, a crew of three. Two of the original five-member crew replaced by computers in the newest and current model). I wonder if anyone knows the record number of human passengers carried by any one C-130 -- and when /where that record was set.

Random Update Of A Florida / Florida Federal Well -- April 22, 2025

Locator: 48488B.

The CLR Florida / Florida wells in Camp oil field are tracked here. 

• 21977, 1,016, CLR, Florida 3-11H, 38 stages, 3.4 million lbs, t1/13; cum 643K 8/20; huge jump 3/17; cum 795K 2/25;

The jump in production back in 2017:

BAKKEN	10-2017	14	7272	7481	3477	11030	10821	22
BAKKEN	9-2017	27	16016	16113	10452	24804	24048	380
BAKKEN	8-2017	31	20527	20364	12078	29845	28575	839
BAKKEN	7-2017	31	25414	25768	14166	37116	36375	269
BAKKEN	6-2017	29	27095	26749	24664	32161	29515	2207
BAKKEN	5-2017	30	20315	20535	23855	23856	10977	12435
BAKKEN	4-2017	30	17047	16919	18489	13999	4631	8908
BAKKEN	3-2017	16	3594	3107	8636	4295	1164	2907
BAKKEN	2-2017	0	0	5	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2017	2	94	235	36	134	116	1
BAKKEN	12-2016	28	2324	2345	1006	3018	2368	257
BAKKEN	11-2016	30	2921	2959	1482	4569	3887	220
BAKKEN	10-2016	30	3187	3118	1371	4688	4232	0
BAKKEN	9-2016	24	2264	2344	1025	2802	2449	39
BAKKEN	8-2016	28	3372	3281	1551	5069	4650	0
BAKKEN	7-2016	31	2344	2328	807	3533	3074	19
BAKKEN	6-2016	29	2362	2335	1925	3500	3040	20
BAKKEN	5-2016	30	2916	3037	1927	3890	3262	163
BAKKEN	4-2016	28	3724	3876	1148	7121	6634	53

Tesla's 1Q25 Results -- "Missed By Mile" -- "Shares Holding Steady" -- Actually, They're Surging -- April 22, 205

Locator: 48487TSLA.

Tesla -- TSLA -- over at x. Link here. After results posted, TSLA up $19, up 8%. Speaks volumes.

AppEconomy, link here:

Here's a guy that completely misunderstands TSLA. Link here. Investors are not accumulating TSLA because they think it's a "car company." LOL. TSLA trades as a battery company. Not a car company. Kind of like a tech company. But seriously,TSLA is a charging company, a regulatory credits company, a battery company, and, a robotic company. Cars are a pastime, an expensive toy for the very wealthy. Those who call it a meme stock, are also wrong. LOL.

From a year ago, 1Q24, link here:

From 2Q24, link here:

From 3Q24, link here:

From 1Q23, link here (need to scroll down).

YouTube.

Pure Seredipity -- I'm In A Great Mood -- Funny How Things Come Together -- April 22, 2025

Locator: 48486B.

Long, long story ... short.

A reader reached out to me today regarding a permit question. 

The reader's question suggested that I take a look at recent quarterly lease sales results. I have NOT looked at these reports in a long, long time because ... well, frankly, they were somewhat boring.

But I took a look at the reports from the past year or so, and came across an interesting observation.

The observation jogged my memory -- from another reader -- months ago, there were questions regarding a specific well and the screenshot of part of a deed that reader had sent me.

Voila!

Wow. Results here. 

And that's why I love to blog. One never knows what one is going to come across.

***************************
Back to the Bakken -- End-Of-Day-Report -- April 22, 2025

WTI: $64.31.

Active rigs: 33.

Four new permits, #41835 - #41838, inclusive:

• Operator: Hess
• Field: Robinson Lake (Mountrail)
• Comments:
• Hess has permits for four EN-Fretheim wells, SESW 8-154-93, 
• to be sited 339 FSL and 1806 / 1905 FWL.

Random Note Regarding Quarterly Lease Results From Last August, 2024 -- Posted April 22, 2025

Locator: 48485B.

Quarterly leases results, link here. At that link, scroll down to "auction results."

Quarterly lease results, August 2024, link here. Below is a screenshot of part of page six (6) from a seven-page report. The typical bonus for a mineral acre in the Bakken is in the $2 - $16 range. "Good" areas will get bonuses of $100 to $300. I seldom see bonuses greater than $1,000 per acre. That puts the bonuses in the screenshot below in perspective. 

There were four parcels bid on in section 36-145-98: NE, NW, SE, SW.

Petro-Hunt and Phoenix Capital Group are willing to pay a bonus of upwards of $5,000 / acre. Seldom do I see bonuses that high.

So, I was curious, where is section 36-145-98? See this map:

Note: there is only one producing well sited in that section, and that well is only sited there. The production from that well is coming from the south, not from the section in which the well is actually sited. There are no horizontal wells in section 145-98-36. Hopefully folks can put "2+2+ together.

So, what well is that well that is sited there, in the far southeast corner of 145-98-36?

Zabolotny?

That sounded familiar. A long time ago a reader sent me this, a screenshot from her deed, because the reader had a question about the Zabolotny well:

I'll stop there for now and send the reader this link and begin a discussion if the reader has questions.

The new wells are not likely to be named Zabolotny wells. They could have that name, but more than likely they will have new names. 

**************************
How Much Was The Winning Bid?

Each of the four parcels above were for eighty (80) acres.

Rounding, $5,000/acre x 80 acres =  8 * 5 * 1,0000 == 40 x 1,000 = 4 x 10,000 = $400,000.

At $50 / bbl, that works out to 8,000 bbls -- assuming all the math is correct -- or around $1.5 million for 320 acres, or $3.0 million for one mineral section (640 acres). Again, I often make simply arithmetic errors. Feel free to fact check. Yes, not all parcels had a bonus of $5,000 / acre. But it certainly suggests operators have a feeling there will be some great wells in this area.

That Zabolotny well, #37987, see this post:

• 37987, loc/A, Petro-Hunt, Zabolotny 144-98-4A-9-1H, Little Knife, this is very, very exciting for at least one reader; a reader notified me of this permit some time ago; permitted November 20, 2020; and, now its producing oil; the Zabolotny wells are tracked here; t8/21; cum 260K 2/25;
  

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
8-2021	12394	11385
7-2021	458	25

Taco Tuesday -- April 22, 2025

Locator: 48484B.

Victor Davis Hanson: today, as good as ever. Available on YouTube. 

• the Vatican: highest walls of any polity
• face of the Democratic party: Hogg and his boss in Minnesota

International trade under Trump, never stop reading: 

1177 BC The Year Civilization Collapsed, Eric H. Cline, c. 2021.

Epilogue / Aftermath
Page 182
Link here.

Complementing archaeological evidence, archives at:

• Amarna in Egypt;
• from the time of the pharaohs Amenhotep III and Akhenaten in the mid-14th century BC; and,
• Ugarit in north Syria:
• during the late 13th and early 12th century; and,
  
• Hattusa in Anatolia:
• during the 14th - 12th centuries.

These letters / archives confirm interconnectedness of the region (Aegean - Egypt - Near East).

The interruption, or even partial dismantling, of those related networks would have had a disastrous effect back then, just as it would on our world today -- Cline, 2021.

*****************************
Back to the Bakken

Financial Times: link here. Paywall; depending on your device you may get access. Long, long article on how the Bakken is struggling due to Trump's tariffs. Also at x.

WTI: $64.14.

New wells:

• Wednesday, April 23, 2025: 79 for the month, 79 for the quarter, 286 for the year,
• None.
• Tuesday, April 22, 2025: 79 for the month, 79 for the quarter, 286 for the year,
• 41149, conf, BR, Watchman Peak 5B,
• 39761, conf, Grayson Mill, Orville 4-9 6H,

RBN Energy: Haynesville presents opportunities, challenges for gas producers.

The boundaries of what we typically think of as the Haynesville Shale in Northeast Texas and Northwest Louisiana are expanding. E&Ps are increasingly moving out from the core producing acreage and exploring new frontiers, including the far western part of the dry-gas shale play. Wrangling gas from this prospect is challenging, with deeper, high-pressure reservoirs, temperatures up to 450°F and wells drilled to extreme depths of up to 19,000 feet. But with new technology, tenacity and a little bit of luck, it could be quite promising.

In today’s RBN blog, Part 1 of a miniseries, we’ll discuss what’s happening in the far western part of the Haynesville. 

Oil and gas exploration begins with geologists who utilize cutting-edge tech to identify promising locations — such as the Haynesville — that might hold large, recoverable volumes of hydrocarbons. Then, wildcatters rush in  to sniff out the best, most lucrative locations. Using a lot of science and a little gut instinct, they start by drilling exploratory wells, with the results closely eyed to determine if it’s economical to drill production wells in that area. If the acreage is proven economic and becomes highly sought-after paydirt by other producers, a feeding frenzy often develops. Over time the most productive acreage can get drilled up and production there declines. So E&Ps are continually working to replace reserves, either through mergers and acquisitions or by finding and developing new areas. (See Steady, As She Goes for more on E&P strategies.)

That takes us to the Haynesville, where we see those same dynamics at play. Unlike some other major shale plays (most notably the Permian) where natural gas is produced as a byproduct of crude oil, drilling in the Haynesville is entirely gas-focused — meaning that revenues from gas sales, without significant uplift from liquids volumes, are expected to justify the cost of the well. The three biggest factors in determining whether drilling a new well is worth it are the costs to produce the hydrocarbons and get them to market, the volume of marketable products, and the price that those products will fetch. Generally speaking, Haynesville wells are deep (in the neighborhood of 10,500-13,500 feet compared to 4,000-8,000 feet in the Marcellus) and therefore expensive. But if and when natural gas prices are supportive, the tremendous volume of gas produced with each well justifies the cost. While cost and volume of a developed acreage position can be reasonably well predicted, that third factor — the expected price — becomes the key variable in producers’ drilling plans.

We have written extensively about the Haynesville Shale . The Haynesville, one of the OGs of shale development, burst onto the scene in 2008 during the early days of the Shale Revolution. The most popular areas of gas development in Louisiana have been Bossier, Caddo, DeSoto and Red River parishes. In Texas, Harrison and Panola counties have been the hot spots (blue-shaded area in Figure 1 below).

Figure 1. The Haynesville and Surrounding Areas. Source: RBN