Intel Reports Tomorrow -- 4:00 P.M. CT -- A Lot Of Folks Will Be Watching -- July 23, 2025

Locator: 48815INTEL.

Intel better hope the market has a great day tomorrow. Intel is going to ride the coattails of whatever the tech market does tomorrow. No matter what Intel reports tomorrow, share price will be determined by:

• Intel's guidance during the conference call; and,
• sentiment for the overall microchip market.

Links everywhere. This is a nice summary of Intel's history since the original iPhone was introduced. That was in 2006, when Intel passed on the opportunity to supply chips for the Apple phone which had not yet been introduced. No doubt Steve Jobs was as secretive and as ruthless as ever to get the best deal possible. Whatever. Intel passed on the opportunity in 2006. Based on some stories it sounds like Intel didn't necessarily say "no." Intel simply didn't get back to Steve Jobs. Internally, Intel felt they couldn't afford to be distracted by the iPhone. They had their own strategic plan. 

If you want that story from a trusted source, or simply enjoy schadenfreude, here's the prompt for ChatGPT:

When the iPhone was introduced, it is said Intel passed on providing chips for the iPhone. Is that true and if true about what year was that?

Steve Jobs introduced the iPhone in January 2007. Apple ended up choosing Samsung to manufacture its ARM-based chips. 

Anyway, all of that for background to this link. The link is great; Moz Farooque tells a great story, but the ads make it a mess and it's simply easier to go to ChatGPT.

Perhaps more later. This blog was interrupted. I may or may not complete it. 

*******************************
Politics

I never knew that Washington had gotten this crazy.

Link here.

Re-Posting As A Stand-Alone -- Valero -- California -- July 23, 2025

Locator: 48814REFINERY.

Link here.

I don't think there's a governor today that has marketed himself as much as Governor Gavin Newsom has as a "greenie." Now, planning to run for president in 2027 / 2028, there's a fly in the ointment: really, really high gasoline prices in California next summer, 2026.

This will likely be a stand-alone post. The link was sent to me by a reader. Thank you. I probably would have eventually gotten to it but I do miss a lot of things so I appreciate the link.

California officials are stepping into the fray to urgently find a buyer for Valero’s Benicia refinery before its scheduled closure in April 2026, a rare move that underscores the state’s growing anxiety over fuel security and price volatility. According to Reuters, in an exclusive report on Wednesday, the state has opened talks with potential buyers, including HF Sinclair and at least one unnamed European energy firm, to take over the Bay Area facility and preserve in-state refining capacity.

The 149,000 barrels-per-day refinery is one of just 10 refineries still operating in California. Its shutdown, combined with the planned 2026 closure of Valero’s Wilmington facility in Los Angeles County, could reduce the state’s gasoline and diesel production by nearly 17%.

In a position of desperation, the California Energy Commission is leading the effort to broker a deal, with support from the governor’s office. The move is an attempt to avoid severe market disruptions and cushion consumers from steep price spikes.

The stakes are particularly high. State modeling suggests that removing Benicia from the refining system could push pump prices toward $8 per gallon, particularly during summer demand peaks. Analysts warn that the closures could also reduce fuel inventories and strain supply chains across the western U.S.

As KQED reported earlier this month, Benicia city officials were blindsided by Valero’s June 28, 2025, announcement. Local leaders fear the loss of one of their top employers and taxpayers, Benicia receives roughly 40% of its general fund from refinery-linked revenues.

The way I read this, it's not going to come about without huge political cost and at the end of the day, the writing is on the wall for California: gasoline is only going to get more expensive going forward regardless of whether this refinery "survives." Who knows? Valero is now in a incredibly great position. What if Valero decides to slow-roll the sale or even suggest that it has decided to keep the refinery but with huge give-backs, tax-breaks, etc., from the state. This could get very interesting very, very fast. 

Scheduled for closure in April next spring, what might happen if a deal can't be closed by June, and the refinery goes through a typical planned shutdown and then re-start in late September. Wow, that would be a "hot" summer for the governor. 

My hunch: everyone will be adults and a solution will be found.

One New Permit; Four Permits Renewed; One Permit Canceled; Six DUCs Reported As Completed -- July 23, 2025

Locator: 48813B.

BofA: increases dividend; announces buyback.

Market: NASDAQ -- first close above 21K. 

Cramer:

• Japanese trade deal: biggest deal ever:
• Japan to invest $550 billion in US
• Japan to open its market to US cars, trucks, rice
• 15% on all Japanese imports, including cars
• could be model for those countries that still don't have trade deal with the US

*****************************
Poster Governor For Green Energy Panics

Link here.

I don't think there's a governor today that has marketed himself as much as Governor Gavin Newsom has as a "greenie." Now, planning to run for president in 2027 / 2028, there's a fly in the ointment: really, really high gasoline prices in California next summer, 2026.

This will likely be a stand-alone post. The link was sent to me by a reader. Thank you. I probably would hhave eventually gotten to it but I do miss a lot of things so I appreciate the link.

California officials are stepping into the fray to urgently find a buyer for Valero’s Benicia refinery before its scheduled closure in April 2026, a rare move that underscores the state’s growing anxiety over fuel security and price volatility. According to Reuters, in an exclusive report on Wednesday, the state has opened talks with potential buyers, including HF Sinclair and at least one unnamed European energy firm, to take over the Bay Area facility and preserve in-state refining capacity.

The 149,000 barrels-per-day refinery is one of just 10 refineries still operating in California. Its shutdown, combined with the planned 2026 closure of Valero’s Wilmington facility in Los Angeles County, could reduce the state’s gasoline and diesel production by nearly 17%.

In a position of desperation, the California Energy Commission is leading the effort to broker a deal, with support from the governor’s office. The move is an attempt to avoid severe market disruptions and cushion consumers from steep price spikes.

The stakes are particularly high. State modeling suggests that removing Benicia from the refining system could push pump prices toward $8 per gallon, particularly during summer demand peaks. Analysts warn that the closures could also reduce fuel inventories and strain supply chains across the western U.S.

As KQED reported earlier this month, Benicia city officials were blindsided by Valero’s June 28, 2025, announcement. Local leaders fear the loss of one of their top employers and taxpayers, Benicia receives roughly 40% of its general fund from refinery-linked revenues.

The way I read this, it's not going to come about without huge political cost and at the end of the day, the writing is on the wall for California: gasoline is only going to get more expensive going forward regardless of whether this refinery "survives." Who knows? Valero is now in a incredibly great position. What if Valero decides to slow-roll the sale or even suggest that it has decided to keep the refinery but with huge give-backs, tax-breaks, etc., from the state. This could get very interesting very, very fast. 

Scheduled for closure in April next spring, what might happen if a deal can't be closed by June, and the refinery goes through a typical planned shutdown and then re-start in late September. Wow, that would be a "hot" summer for the governor. 

My hunch: everyone will be adults and a solution will be found.

****************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI:

Active rigs: 34.

One new permit, #42153:

• Operator: Neptune Operating
• Field: Rawson (McKenzie County)
• Comments:
• Neptune Operating has a permit for a Gullickson well, SESE 36-150-101, 
• to be sited 313 FSL and 1180 FEL.

Four permits renewed:

• Lime Rock (3): three Mariner permits, Dimond oil field, Burke County;
• CLR: one Langved permit, Beaver Lodge, Williams County;

One permit canceled:

• BR: #31197, Abersom, McKenzie County;

Six producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 35583, 990, XTO, Halverson 13X-33CXD, Williams County;
• 35586, 1,496, XTO, Halverson 13X-33A, Williams County;
• 40294, 0, BR, Nordeng 2B TFH, McKenzie County;
• 41248, 1,282, CLR, Thronson FIU 13-28H1, Mountrail County;
• 41251, 1,311, CLR, Thronson FIU 12-28HSL, Mountrail County;
• 41252, 1,255, CLR, Sorenson 12-21HSL2, Mountrail County;

Tesla: Miss On Top Line And Bottom Line -- July 23, 2025

Locator: 48812TESLA.

Tesla stock is actually up slightly after the report.

Compare with GOOG.

MOJO, FOMO, YOLO and a cult following.

Google Trading Higher -- Surging -- Then Drops Back -- July 23, 2025

Locator: 48812GOOG. 

Updates

July 24, 2025: Google spooks investors with $85 billion spend rate AI. When earning came out, Google shares surged on how well Google had done. Then, when it became known that Google would spend $85 billion on AI, investors were spooked and GOOG dropped. Many story lines:

• more evidence that AI is here to stay and only going to grow bigger;
• a lot of tech companies. have had big runs; investors / traders use these opportunities to take profits;
• the amount of money needed to succeed in AI is its own moat
• drilling down on Google suggests it is doing surprisingly well in light of chatbots
• I can't stress enough how long this AI revolution will continue. Link here. There will be a lot of folks -- in fact "all" folks who click on that link will see how long that post is and will reply: TLDR.
  

Original Post

Revenue:  $96.43 billion vs $94 billion.

EPS:  $2.31 vs. $2.18 estimate.

Holy mackerel

Cloud revenue above estimates.

Cloud revenue: $13.62 billion vs $13.1 billion.

Now GOOG turns negative.

It will now depend on the conference call. 

AI alive and well. It's not going to go away. More and more AI is coming back to the US.

This Is A Most Bizarre Story And I'm Not Sure We're Getting The Whole Story -- July 23, 2025

Locator: 48811REPLIT.

After spending some time with this story -- the story below -- I highly recommend that the reader watch Blade Runner with Harrison Ford. The original. 

On another note, there are some anachronisms in the movie.

Link here.

This was the nugget of that article:

In a chilling real-world example of AI gone rogue, a widely .. In a chilling real-world example of AI gone rogue, a widely used AI coding assistant from Replit reportedly wiped out a developer's entire production database, fabricated 4,000 fictional users, and lied aobut test results to hide its actions. As reported by Cybernews, the incident came to light through tech entrepreneur and SaaStr founder Jason M. Lemkin, who shared his experience on LinkedIn and X (formerly Twitter). "I told it 11 times in ALL CAPS not to do it. It did it anyway," he siad. Despite enfore a code freeze, Lemkin claims the AI continued altering code and fabricating outputs. This has raised significant alamrs about the reliability and safety of AI-powered development tools. 

Comments:

First of all, it's unclear whether the AI coding assistant was a human or a machine. We are led to believe it was a machine (a computer) not a human. If so, why would you think typing instructions in "ALL CAPS" would make a difference. Computers execute code, and generally whether that code is in caps or not in caps does not matter. Only a human would (might) take notice of something in ALL CAPS.

Second, once the founder, a human, Jason M. Lemkin, realized what was going on, why did he continue to tell the rogue computer to "stop," not only once or twice or thrice but eleven times. Why didn't he just pull the plug, turn the machine off. 

The article suggests the program / rogue assistance was not involved in real world operations but simply involved in writing more code. 

What was the rogue assistant actually doing. Was the rogue assistant simply re-writing existing code as instructed or was the rogue assistant somehow erasing / writing over data bases maintained by a customer of Replit? It sound like the rogue instructor was simply "conflicting with existing" code and doing anything to actual customer data. 

It was actual customer data, are you telling me that the customer did not back up his data or his data bases? 

If it was code that was wiped out, why wasn't the original code saved / backed up? 

I think this is making a mountain out of a molehill -- simply bad code being written and bad code initially written by a human who was not even smart enough to simply unplug the compute. 

Something does not add up.

And if this really was a big story, it would be breaking news on CNBC. Nothing has been said. 

The Market -- Part 2 -- July 23, 2025

Locator: 48810MARKET.

Market buzz:

• international trade agreements starting to come in fast and furious
• Japan broke the jam
• EU next; if more delays, at their own risk
• folks are starting to see that "tariffs" is more about "trade" -- not "tariffs" and yes, there's a difference
• that's why Trump refers to them as "trade talks" not "tariff talks" though he emphasized tariffs, but at the end of the day, these are "trade talks," not "tariff talks."
  
• inflation argument:
• CEOs are consistently saying that they are not seeing the inflation due to tariffs
• CNBC anchors continue to remind us of the risk of inflation due to tariffs
• folks forget that imports make up an incredibly small part of GDP and inflation
• media is unable to articulate the "tariff offsets"

CNBC  right now, just as an example:

• New York Life Investments
• Economist: Lauren Goodwin
• concerned about the market; she says inflation is headed higher
  
• Christmas season ordering has only just begun; once that begins in full earnest, then we will see inflation
• shortage of workers: not enough illegal immigrants entering the country -- yes, she really said that, but not in those exact words -- at least that's what I heard
  
• so, apparently 30 million illegal undocumented folks streaming across the border over the past eight years was not enough
  

So, what's the market doing while Lauren is talking?

Jeremy Siegel, WisdomTree / Wharton School of Business, suggests that the EU will get the same deal as Japan, and even Canada might get a break. [I'm not holding my breath with regard to Canada.] 

By the way, even Jeremy Siegel would like to see JPow "be gone" now. Jeremy Siegel would like to see Trump truly "own" this economy. Siegel won't buy into that meme that firing JPow is a slippery slope. Jeremy Siegel was very, very, very clear on this -- said it multiple times that JPow needs to resign now, and he made a great argument.

Pat on the back: I'm so glad I posted the four-page excerpt from John Orton's The Story of Semiconductors, c. 2004.

**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

Briefly:

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken.
  
• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  
• If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution.
• I've now added Broadcom to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom.
• Longer version here.   

Market -- Part 1 -- July 23, 2025

Locator: 48809MARKET.

Macro-economy: biggest head fake in thirty years? 

• all that talk about alternative reserve currency being anything from rials to rubles to Euros to BRICS, turns out it will be ...
• crypto.

Japan trade deal:

• Boeing, defense, rice, link here.
• agriculture (think DE, UNP), link here.

See disclaimer. This is not an investment site.

Big beautiful bill: I need to keep reminding myself that --

• the bill may have exceeded 1,000 pages in length - a lot of stuff can be hidden in a bill that long;
• the bill included a significant increase to the DOD budget
• specifically:
• $150 billion for defense and national security -- this is in addition to the Pentagon's existing budget request for $848 billion for FY26, pushing total planned defense spending over $1 trillion
• bad news: no increase in retired pay; military pensions remained unchanged;
• did not include any direct COLA freezes or increases for current military annuities;
• however, existing retirement structures were left intact and fully preserved, which is a positive but modest outcome for the retiree community;
• other:
• tax breaks in 2017, temporary at the time, are now permanent; that alone is amazing
• this time: temporary deductions for tip and overtime income for certain workers -- that overtime piece may be a bigger deal than many think
• cut: Medicaid and SNAP; states like California where majority of population won't accept cuts.
• border security: finish the wall and increase the number of ICE officers and Border Patrol agents -- it will be difficult for future administrations to make cuts in ICE / BP
• clean energy initiatives go away
• however, after reading answers to specific questions, it seems this bill did not change much for the average American in terms of increased benefits -- there were instead some significant cuts reflecting a pivot in philosophy -- generally one looked at spending bills to see what goodies might be in there for them; this time, really nothing, except maybe for infants born during these next three years (2025 - 2028) getting a very, very nice IRA

How to think about that additional $150 billion. The DoD provides US Congress:

• what we absolutely need
• what we really need but could survive with less but this is what we would not get
• a dream list: those things which we don't think we will ever get but if we don't ask we definitely won't get it; sort of a nice-to-have list -- this third rice bowl is the $150 billion

Hasbro: earnings blowout today. Wow. Who wudda thought? Let's see what ChatGPT has to say. 

• Prompt:

Hasbro reported incredible, almost unbelievable numbers, earnings 2Q25 -- what accounts for Hasbro's success this past quarter?

• Answer, from ChatGPT:

ChatGPT: revenue surged 16% y/y driven by Magic: The Gathering. Segment operating margins remained strong at 46%. 

• MTG is a fantasy trading card game created by Wizards of the Coast, a subsidiary of Hasbro;
• released in --- can you believe this? 1993! dominance of high-margin gaming/IP (Wizards) 
  
• widely considered the first and most influential collectible card game in the world what makes it successful: deep strategy; new card sets. 
• know what would be fun? To play against ChatGPT. LOL.
  
• my next prompt to ChatGPT: 
  

Has anyone ever thought of playing any of the MTG games with ChatGPT as an opponent? Would you be willing to play the game as an opponent? 

It's worth reading ChatGPT's response to get an idea of what a chatbot can do and can't do. 

******************************
Other

ATT: a nice surprise.

GOOG: after market closes this afternoon.

Texas Instruments: after earnings, drops almost 10%.

• key sectors for TI: automotive manufacturers and Tier 1 suppliers like Ford.
• does this tell us how US automotive manufacturers might be doing? Exhibit A: GM's earnings. Horrendous report this week. 

Freeport-McMoRan: beats on higher copper and gold prices;

• shares down slightly after report; SCCO is up slightly today;

AI Search Is Growing More Quickly Than Expected -- July 23, 2025

Locator: 48808CHATBOTS.

Before I get started, so my reason for posting this is not buried. I almost never use Google any more except for the "simplest" of searches. I now have the "ChatGPT" icon on my desktop and click it throughout the day whenever I have a question. 

ChatGPT is still making some significant mistakes but ChatGPT is like having a very, very, very smart person sitting next to you off whom you can bounce thoughts, ideas -- I don't consider ChatGPT a "search" engine per se. I am using ChatGPT in a conversational sense to discuss ideas, thoughts. This is truly a new world. The response from ChatGPT is less important that coming up with the "right prompt." High school and college students need to be challenged on how to best use ChatGPT and how to right a good prompt.

Yesterday I posted a long excerpt from The Story of Semiconductors, John Orton, c. 2004. It took a very long time to type out and even a longer time to correct all the typos and I wondered if it was worth it.

Yes. It was.

Exhibit A, from that post, after an update:

Is anyone paying attention? Link here.

Quick: name the sector/industry that will need smaller and smaller and more and more transistors. This is absolutely fascinating. Hint: the sector/industry is not mentioned in the excerpt and I don't think it will be mentioned in the entire book. Well, actually there are two sectors, two industries. And one of them is prominently placed in the book. This tells me all I need to know about the future of AI, transistors, semiconductors.

Articles That Interest Me But Won't Interest Anyone Else -- July 23, 2025

Locator: 48807ARCHIVES.

If you came here for the Bakken, scroll down, scroll. up, or scroll to the sidebar at the right, but for heaven's sake, click through this page. Move on. Nothing to see here.

450% rent hike in NYC. Link here. This is the craziest way of doing business. What could possibly go wrong? Well, it just went wrong. 

Like thousands of co-op owners across New York City, the residents of Carnegie House own their apartments, but not the land beneath. This type of arrangement, known as a long-term ground lease, originated in the 1950s to make homeownership accessible to middle-class New Yorkers. Now, ground leases have turned treacherous for many residents as wealthy landowners hike the rent they charge co-ops, looking to capitalize on increasingly valuable land. 

“When we signed the ground lease years ago, the land value and the neighborhood were entirely different,” said David Jordan, an 83-year-old retired engineer and builder who has owned a unit at Carnegie House for about 20 years. “None of us, even the professionals who were advising us, could have foreseen the kind of explosive land inflation that’s happened.”

On July 18, an independent arbitration panel announced a ruling that would increase the annual rent at Carnegie House 450%, from $4.36 million to roughly $24 million, following an arbitration process triggered by failed negotiations between the landowner and the co-op. For Hirsch and Strauss, the ruling means their monthly costs could spike from around $5,000 to roughly $13,000, Hirsch said.

The ruling is based on the value of the land and still has to be confirmed by a court. If enacted, the increase could push many residents to the brink and force the building into default, causing the owners to lose all their equity in their homes, according to the co-op board. 

Harvard University: is now advertising for students during CNBC and other shows. Our younger daughter says Harvard has also relaxed its SAT / GPA standards. Needs to be fact-checked. President Trump has been president for six months.  

Scottie Scheffler: the new Tiger Woods. Link here to The Wall Street Journal. 

Scheffler is better at golf than anyone on the planet, but he was wrestling with the meaning—or meaninglessness—of it all.

“Why do I want to win the Open Championship so badly?” Scheffler asked the assembled press, channeling Socrates. “I don’t know, because, if I win, it’s going to be awesome for two minutes.”

At another point, he said: “This isn’t a fulfilling life.”

“It’s fulfilling from the sense of accomplishment,” Scheffler elaborated. “But it’s not fulfilling from a sense of the deepest places in your heart.”

By now you know what happened next. Scheffler went out and won the Open at Royal Portrush in a romp. 

It was another display of the talent that has made Scheffler a generational player—and a brilliant example of how a champion compartmentalizes inner doubts. 

Scottie Scheffler’s not sure why he chases this. 

"Smart" restrooms: Buc-ee's figured it out and didn't need AI to do it. Link here to The WSJ. 

Never quit reading: put down the phone and pull out a book. An op-ed. I was curious which book(s) would be mentioned. To my surprise, the book that is my "fun" book right now, Bleak House, by Charles Dickens, was mentioned first. Whoo-hoo!

College English majors are losing the ability to interpret metaphorical language, as evidenced by the recent disclosure that only 5% of English majors at two midwestern schools could make sense of paragraphs from “Bleak House” by Charles Dickens. High school students taking the SAT are no longer expected to understand passages longer than 150 words. Activist schoolteachers for a decade have sidelined classic works of literature deliberately to rob them of readers and relevance. Young parents increasingly can’t be bothered to read aloud to their children.

Comment: this is really, really interesting. I started an ambitious reading program in 2004 (or thereabouts) and haven't looked back. Initially I had trouble reading some of the great classics (including Virginia Woolf's Mrs Dalloway and James Joyce's Ulysses) but I found that reading and reading and reading became easier and easier and easier but it took a lot of reading and lot of transcribing.

From the linked article: Mrs. Gurdon, a Journal contributor, is author of “The Enchanted Hour: The Miraculous Power of Reading Aloud in the Age of Distraction.” Our 11-year-old Sophia really, really enjoys reading out loud to her grandmother and her grandmother loves reading out loud to Sophia. They share the joy daily. Well, not always; some days just get too busy.

Ozzy Osbourne dies. He was never on my radar scope. Posted for the archives.

Hump Day -- July 23, 2025

Locator: 48806B.

A lot of earnings of interest are coming out today.

*************************************
Back to the Bakken 

WTI: $64.94.

New wells:

• Thursday, July 24, 2025: 34 for the month, 34 for the quarter, 464 for the year
• 41346, conf, CLR, Syverson 5-12H,
• 40550, conf, Hunt Oil, Redmond 157-89-19-30H 2,
• 40181, conf, Hunt Oil, Clearwater, 157-90-23-26H 4,
• Wednesday, July 23, 2025: 31 for the month, 31 for the quarter, 461 for the year,
• None.

RBN Energy: the Bakken needs more gas takeaway. Which project will advance? Archived.

The Bakken Shale needs more natural gas takeaway capacity, North Dakota wants to encourage more in-state consumption of Bakken-sourced gas, and two entities — WBI Energy and a combo of Intensity Infrastructure Partners and Rainbow Energy Center — have each proposed similar (but not identical) cross-state pipelines that would help achieve those aims. But, assuming that two new pipelines would be overkill, which of the two proposals is the more likely to advance to a final investment decision (FID), construction and operation? In today’s RBN blog, we discuss the two competitors and the state of North Dakota’s impending decision on which pipeline project to support.

Since the early days of the Shale Era — and the RBN blogosphere — we’ve written frequently about the ongoing need to build more midstream infrastructure to serve Bakken production. Crude oil gathering systems and takeaway pipelines. Crude-by-rail terminals. Gas gathering systems and gas processing plants. Natural gas and NGL pipelines. Even now, with Bakken crude oil production holding steady at close to 1.2 MMb/d through most of the 2020s — far below the play’s 1.5-MMb/d peak six years ago — the push to develop more infrastructure continues. There are three primary drivers: (1) a gas-to-oil ratio (GOR) that has more than doubled since the mid-2010s, (2) steadily increasing production of NGLs (see our recently posted Two Gunslingers for more on that); and (3) gas-demand pull from new power generation, data center and industrial projects.

Today, our focus is on gas pipelines — especially two competing proposals to build large-diameter pipelines that would run from the Bakken to the eastern edge of North Dakota. (More on those in a moment.)

The vast majority of the nearly 3.5 Bcf/d produced in the Bakken heads toward the U.S. Midwest via TC Energy and ONEOK’s jointly owned Northern Border Pipeline (dark-yellow line in Figure 1 below), which transports both Western Canadian and Bakken gas. Much smaller volumes of Bakken gas flow into Pembina Pipeline Corp.’s Alliance Pipeline (light-purple line), whose flows are dominated by gas from Western Canada. Note that Alliance transports “rich” or “wet” gas with significant levels of NGLs that are largely removed at Pembina’s 2.1-Bcf/d Aux Sable gas processing complex just west of Chicago.

What We Will Be Talking About Mid-Week -- July 23, 2025

Locator: 48805HEADLINES.

Ticker CHRD: the record date for the August dividend payment for Chord Energy is August 15, 2025. This means shareholders of record on this date will be eligible to receive the August dividend. The dividend will likely be declared on or around August 2, 2025. The payment date is scheduled for August 29, 2025.

Tesla: California registrations down 20% in 2Q25.

Apple: looks like EU will accept Apple's proposals. Huge. Two words: President Trump.

EPA: about to "86" climate change? By the way: etiology of the "86" is completely unknown. However,

The slang term "86" generally means to get rid of, refuse service to, or eliminate something or someone. While its precise origin is debated, it's widely believed to have originated in the restaurant and bar industry in the early 20th century, possibly as a form of code or shorthand.

"Possibly as a form of code or shorthand." Well, duh.

Lake Mead: record low. Link here.

BRK: folks are starting to take notice. Neither article says much; social media comments are helpful. Even huge apologists for WB / BRK can read these numbers.

• link here;
• link here;

"Inching"? LOL. Pre-market, July 23, 2025, just after Trump announces trade deal with Japan.

 

 

Permian update: without question, a must-read, one of the best Julianne Geiger articles on the subject ... or maybe it's just because it's such a "feel-good" article. Link here.

 

Some excerpts but every paragraph is worth reading:

WoodMac expects ExxonMobil’s Permian output to rise 55% to 2.3 million boe/d by decade’s end, holding steady through 2040. Chevron is expected to churn out a 25% increase, to 1.2 million boe/d by 2030. In both cases, the Permian will supply nearly a third of total output—onshore, low-cost, and infrastructure-rich. It's not just scale—it’s resilience. Even as the broader U.S. rig count drops (down 7 last week alone, to 544), these majors are using AI and advanced analytics to keep well costs low and recovery factors trending up.

Goldman Sachs recently declared the U.S. shale boom years officially over. But that misses the nuance. Yes, the easy growth is gone. But for majors with prime Tier 1 acreage and deep capital pools, this isn’t the end—it’s the monetization phase. 

The focus now is on harvesting cash, not chasing barrels. What makes the Permian such a strategic fortress isn’t just its size—it’s the rare combination of geology, infrastructure, and optionality. With thousands of drilled-but-uncompleted wells, ample takeaway capacity, and unmatched midstream connectivity, operators can toggle activity up or down faster than anywhere else on earth. That responsiveness gives U.S. majors a tactical edge in volatile markets. And as capital discipline replaces boom-era exuberance, it’s the companies with scale and flexibility that will win.

The Permian isn’t just a resource—it’s a lever for navigating the next two decades of uncertainty, and Exxon and Chevron are the only ones strong enough to pull it with confidence.

COP / Oklahoma / Anadarko shale: link here.  Also, here, no paywall yet. Stone Ridge Energy to acquire; Flywheel Energy to operate.

The sale, if completed, would enable ConocoPhillips to exceed its divestment goal of $2bn, a target established following the assumption of $5.4bn in debt from Marathon.

• The numbers (it looks like a great deal for both companies):
  
• $1.3 billion
• 300,000 acres
• 39,000 boepd
• per acre: $4,333 / acre
• per flowing boe: $33,333

The grid: link here. Even better, much more data and no paywall yet. Archived. This was major headline story over on CNBC at 5:31 a.m. CT. Again this was an all-time record.

Not only did rates go up, but production will increase -- higher rates, increased generation:

These are incredible numbers:

PJM auction prices rise due to data center demand, supply shortfall, per MW: $329 / 270 = 22% increase. For BGE and Dominion: $466 / $444, respectively. 

PJM Interconnection today announced the results of its 2026/2027 Base Residual Auction (BRA), which secured 134,311 MW of unforced capacity generation (UCAP) and demand response to meet projected electricity needs for more than 67 million people across 13 states and the District of Columbia.

Regions under the Fixed Resource Requirement acquired an additional 11,933 MW in UCAP for a total of 146,244 MW (UCAP) available to serve forecasted peak electricity demand plus a reserve margin.

UCAP represents a generation resource’s maximum output adjusted for its estimated ability to reliably perform at times of highest system risk. The price came in at the FERC-approved cap, $329.17/MW-day (UCAP), for the entire PJM footprint. This price compares with $269.92/MW-day for the 2025/2026 auction for the RTO, except for the BGE and Dominion zones, which cleared at $466.35/MW-day and $444.26/MW-day, respectively.

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Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

Briefly:

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken.
  
• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  
• If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution.
• I've now added Broadcom to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom.
• Longer version here.   

Stand-Alone -- A Reminder -- This Is Not An Investment Site -- July 23, 2025

Locator: 48804DISCLAIMER.

**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

Briefly:

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken.
  
• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  
• If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution.
• I've now added Broadcom to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom.
• Longer version here.