Monday, December 20, 2010

Seven (7) New Permits -- North Dakota, USA

Producers: CLR (5), Whiting (2)

Fields: Sanish, Oakdale, and one wildcat.

Four of the five CLR permits will be on one pad in the Oakdale field, an Eco-Pad.

Both of the Whiting wells are in the Sanish.

The wildcat is a CLR permit in Williams County.

Another Bullish Story for OIl: $100 Soon

And as long as it stays around $100, price of oil should not negatively impact the economy.

We'll see.

Here's the link.

NDIC Hearing Dockets, January, 2011 -- Reader's Digest Version

Due to the fact that I am using the iPad and not a laptop or desktop, my summary of the January, 2011, hearing dockets will be limited to "significant" cases.

Wednesday, January 12, 2011

The Wednesday, January 12, 2011, hearing docket is 8 pages long, and consists mostly of developing and/or pooling existing wells. However, the following cases are interesting:

Case 13560: Cornerstone,to establish 22 640-acre spacing units, with one Bakken horizontal well in each unit, Burke County, no field give; new field?

Case 13985: BR, to drill up to 7 horizontal wells on 2 1280-acre spacing units in Blue Buttes-Bakken pool, McKenzie County

Case 13987: MRO, to establish a 5,120-acre spacing unit in McGregory Buttes-Bakken, Dunn County, for up to 8 horizontal wells

Case 13988: MRO, to establish a 3,840-acre spacing unit in Bailey-Bakken for up to 5 horizontal wells, Dunn County

Case 13805: QEP, to extend Deep Water Creek Bay Field creating 4 800-acre spacing units with 2 horizontal wells on each unit, McLean County

Case 13805: continued, QEP, to extend Heart Butte and/or Van Hook by creating one 2,560-acre spacing unit for up to 10 wells on that spacing unit

Case 14057: GADECO,LLC, extending Stockyard Creek-Bakken to create 2 1,280-acre units with 3 horizontal wells on each unit. According to this site, GADECO is a limited liability company formed in 2004 by Greenwood Village independent Jack J. Grynberg based in Greenwood Village, Colorado.

Thursday, January 13, 2011

The Thursday docket is ten pages long; these are the ones that caught my attention.

14017: CLR, amend Murphy Creek-Bakken to create a 2,560-acre spacing unit for 4 horizontal wells, Dunn County

13817: CLR, amend Rattlesnake Point-Bakken to create a 2,560-acre spacing unit for 4 horizontal wells, Dunn County

14023: EOG, extend Van Hook and/or Parshall to create one 1,920-acre spacing unit and 3 1,280-acre spacing units, with one horizontal well on each unit, Mountrail County

14026: Citation, extend Catwalk-Bakken to create 2 1,280-acre spacing units, one horizontal well each, Williams County

13838: Newfield, to create a 1,280-acre spacing unit with 4 horizontal wells, no field named; Williams County

13839: Newfield, to create a 1,280-acre spacing unit in Fertile Valley-Bakken with 4 horizontal wells, Divide County

13840: Newfield, to create a 1,280-acre spacing unit with 5 wells, no field, named, Williams County

13841: Newfield, to create a 1,280-acre spacing unit with 3 wells, no field named, Williams County

13619: ERF, extend Spotted Hawk-Bakken, to create 2 1,280-acre spacing units with 4 wells on each, McKenzie County

13692: EOG, Kittelson Slough-Bakken, 3 wells on 2 1,280-acre spacing units, Mountrail County

Thoughts on Takeaway Capacity -- Bakken, North Dakota, USA

In the December, 2010, NDIC Director's Cut, it is reported that takeaway capacity continues to exceed productivity.

Hmmm.

Other data points from the same report:
75 percent of oil production is trucked from the pad
The amount of oil being shipped by train is increasing
The amount of oil being trucked to Canada is decreasing
Excessive flaring continues to be a problem
Daily production in November was impacted by snowstorms (trucks can't get to sites in inclement weather)
What does that suggest to me?
Takeaway capacity exceeds production only because production is impacted by infrastructure choke points, weather and the railroads' ability to scale up.
The two data points we don't have:
To what extent (in bbls/day) does takeaway capacity exceed production?
To what extent can railroads scale up? (physically and economically)
75 percent of productivity is impacted when trucks can't get to the site. But is inclement weather the only thing keeping trucks getting to the sites? Are there adequate number of trucks, adequate number of drivers on a daily basis to meet demand? How often are pumps turned off when on-site tanks are filled and trucks don't arrive on time?

By law / regulation, operators are not allowed to maximize oil production when natural gas is still being flared. Operators are putting in natural gas pipelines, it seems, as fast as they can to "get rid" of this problem. It's, of course, exacerbated by the fact that natural gas prices aren't all that great. So, if there's natural gas being flared at a site, you can bet that oil production is being choked back. Periodically on the monthly NDIC dockets you will see industry requests to waive the natural gas flaring rule.

With regard to price, I think it's becoming a wash whether rail or pipeline is better. Refineries pay less for North Dakota oil when it arrives by pipeline because it is mixed with less desirable heavy oil from Canada; refineries pay more for "pure" Bakken oil when it is shipped by rail, but it costs the producer more to ship it by rail.

For an individual mineral rights owner, the fact that he/she is not taking a loss on Bakken oil due to lack of takeaway capacity is good news.

But for the industry and for the state of North Dakota, having excess capacity is not good news. It highlights the fact that overall production is being held back, mostly due to lack of pipeline (oil and natural gas) infrastructure.

At least that's how I read it.

ND Budget: $100 Oil, 425,000 Bbls/Day In This Cycle

Link here.

State Lease Sales Still Interesting -- North Dakota, USA

This is just idle chatter while waiting for today's news cycle to begin.

The quarterly state lease sale remains interesting.

Most of the attention in most recent sale (November, 2010) was in Williams and McKenzie Counties; relatively quiet elsewhere. Both Williams and McKenzie had sales exceeding $11 million whereas Mountrail did not even break the $1 million threshold.

It appears the largest bonus paid was $8,600/acre by Trinity Western for 3.34 acres under the river in McKenzie County.

Slawson paid $6,000/acre for 176 acres under the river, also in McKenzie County.

Total dollar amount paid to the state in the November lease sale: $42 million for 30,000 acres which works out to an average of $1,400/acre.

By comparison, the totals for August, 2010, were $64 million for 42,000 acres ($1,500/acre).

For May, 2010, $158 million for 53,000 acres ($3,000/acre).

And finally for February, 2010, $47 million for 40,000 acres ($1,200/acre).

As a reminder, in the best Bakken,the EUR for a well is conservatively estimated at 500,000 bbls. They will drill three wells per section = 1.5 million bbls EUR. Dividing by 640, that's 2,400 bbls/acre. At $50/bbl, that's $120,000/acre at the wellhead.

Number One in Flax

North Dakota will set another record in flax production and production is slated to increase next year.

North Dakota produces 95 percent of the nation's flax.