Texas Electricity Demand Growth; Eastern US Natural Gas Increasingly Meets LNG-Fueled Demand Growth -- EIA -- July 31, 2025

Locator: 48730NG.

Texas.

Link here.

Northeast.

Link here.

It's All About Natural Gas -- Again -- Taiwan To Shut Down Last Nuclear Reactor -- Will Rely On (More) Natural Gas -- July 26, 2024

Locator: 48241NG.

Link here.

Natural Gas -- Western Haynesville Juggernaut -- May 20, 2024

Locator: 47144B.

Link here.

Matterhorn Pipeline Update -- April 17, 2024

Locator: 47021PIPELINES.

Link to RBN Energy.

Permian E&Ps want to increase their crude oil production, but they are hemmed in — and at least a tad hesitant. As producers in West Texas and southeastern New Mexico know all too well, crude production growth can only happen if there is sufficient pipeline capacity in place to move not only the oil they extract, but also the massive volumes of associated gas that emerge with it. As we discussed recently in Come Dancing, takeaway capacity for gas is once again at the knife’s edge, and there really are no good alternatives to piping that incremental gas to market — for most producers, flaring at scale is no longer an acceptable. Luckily, there’s at least one gas-takeaway fix in the short-term: The greenfield, 2.5-Bcf/d Matterhorn Express gas pipeline will come online later this year.

But while Matterhorn will help, it’s likely to fill up quickly, meaning even more gas takeaway will be needed to keep crude production growing through the next decade. That may include the expansion of the Gulf Coast Express (GCX) system as well as installing some new pipes (See Come Dancing for our projections of new gas pipe capacity). Assuming that new gas pipeline capacity out of the Permian is added as needed, crude oil production growth in the basin will eventually drive the need for more takeaway capacity, especially to major Gulf Coast oil hubs. That growth could also drive the development of one or more of the new deepwater export terminals being planned off the Texas coast, which could spur additional pipeline capacity to feed those terminals.

Enbridge again:

Two companies are already stepping up their efforts to boost takeaway capacity, targeting their Permian-to-Corpus Christi pipe assets. Enbridge is planning to expand its 900-Mb/d Gray Oak crude oil pipeline by 120 Mb/d (see graphic at link). 

The company said the new capacity will be added in two phases that will conclude in early 2026. The current plan is notably less than the original announcement which was to add 200 Mb/d. That reduction could indicate that producers and shippers, whose commitments are critical in getting new pipeline capacity built, for one reason or another, are not yet compelled to sign up for capacity. 

In addition, it is our understanding that EPIC Midstream wants to add 300 Mb/d of new capacity to its namesake crude system (see graphic at link), although there are no timelines for it.

More on the Matterhorn natural gas pipeline here:

Let's see if my "rule of thumb" holds: my estimated cost -- $750 million. Unable to find FID cost.

Where We Stand With Regard To Renewable Energy -- August 26, 2023

Locator: 45477RENEWABLES.  

For the archives. Perhaps the best update so far this year.

Link here.

Data points:

• US power generation from gas-fired plants jumped by 10%, first eight months of 2023, compared to same period, 2022, one year earlier, still coming out of the pandemic
• this jump occurred despite overall electricity generation declined by 2.1% so far in 2023
• meanwhile, natural gas in electricity generation in the US has averaged:
• 40.4% this year to date; compared to
• 36% for same period last year.
• electricity generation:
• from coal: continued to drop
• "clean power" flat due to lower wind speeds and lower hydropower generation offset a surg ein solar power output
• By category:
• nuclear and hydropower: 40.5% of America's total power generation, 2023 to date;
• compared to 39.9% in the same period last year (2022)
• despite a surge in renewables installations, power output from wind and hydro was lower than usual -- lower wind speeds and drought in Pacific Northwest
• a lot more statistics at the linked article, but bottom line:
• renewable installation exceeding nuclear production
• but renewable power has been basically flat
• one can do the math
• making up the shortfall? Natural gas.

This, all against the backdrop, of increasing EV penetration. 

Solar and wind won't be able to keep up. Period. Dot.

Worse, much of the wind generation is not where the US population is centered: east of the Mississippi. 

Cumulatively, operating clean power capacity in the U.S. is now more than 237 GW, accounting for 15.1% of electricity generated. Texas leads with 26.353 GW, or 18% of total operating U.S. clean power, followed by California with an 11% share and New York with 6% of operating clean power. 

Bottom line:

• renewable installation exceeding nuclear production
• but renewable power has been basically flat
• one can do the math
• making up the shortfall? Natural gas.

Are You Kidding Me? October 23, 2022

Mississippi Covid-19 death rate 4x that of Vermont. Four times.

Kansas Chiefs at San Francisco: 44-23.

• The San Francisco 49ers had/have the #1 defensive team in the NFL.
  

Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Chargers: 37 - 23.

NASCAR: after getting slammed by Bubba last week, Kyle Larson wins race today;

• Bubba Wallace watched it from home; he was suspended one race after last week's childish behavior at 150 MPH

Starbucks: oatmeal for $3.50 when a Walmart packet costs 16 cents; link here --

• Oatmeal, box of individual packets, Maple Sugar; 20 packets in a box
• Quaker Oats brand: $6.48 (Walmart)
• generic (GG): $3.48
• at 20 in a box, that works out to 16 cents / packet
• Starbucks: $3.58 / serving -- to add water and heat in microwave

Private citizen has better satellite comm than US government / military / NSA?

*********************
For The Archives

Natural Gas Sell-Off -- Did The US EPA Have A Hand In It? September 6, 2022

There was a headline today that "natural gas sold off today." I don't know accurate that headline is/was. Oilprice.com suggests natural gas fell 1.65% to $8.011, about a buck lower than recent highs and as much as almost two dollars lower from just a few months ago, all this coming at a time that the energy crisis worsens in Europe.

From yesterday on the blog:

Natural gas: I've said from the beginning, I have a pretty good understanding of oil -- understanding maybe five percent of all there is to know, but I have no understanding of natural gas. After years of blogging, I have learned one thing about natural gas. Producers can produce a lot of it very quickly, if necessary. And today, we see it again. From Charles Kennedy:

And that's why I've never been a big fan in investing in pure-play natural gas producers. From the linked article:

U.S. natural gas futures shed around 5% on Tuesday, hitting a four-week low as soaring output coupled with lower demand forecasts drags prices down, despite the fact that inventories are 11% lower than their five-year norm. Output is still holding strong after the latest report from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) for the week ending August 26, which showed a natural gas inventory build of 61 billion cubic feet. While that brings inventory to 2,640 Bcf, it is still 228 Bcf below levels at the same time last year–heading into the winter season. 

Also prompting the decline is the outage at the key Freeport LNG export plant on the Gulf coast. 

That outage means traders are calculating some 2 billion cubic feet of gas per day that is not being consumed by Freeport for export and is remaining on the domestic market.

Freeport–which accounts for some 20% of U.S. LNG export capacity–looks set to remain offline until sometime in the first half of November, at which point we could see only a partial startup, ramping up to full capacity by the end of that month. Freeport, however, has already pushed back a restart date several times since declaring force majeure–and then revoking it–in June. 

I anticipated this on August 20, 2022. 

It now appears there may be more to the story and that the US EPA may have had a hand in it.

I'm too tired to post any more tonight. I assume if this is accurate -- that there is more to the story and the US EPA may have had a hand in it -- we'll hear more about it tomorrow. 

As for me, I'm headed off for some reading and for some old Perry Mason television.

Natural Gas Proved Reserves -- Global -- August 22, 2022

Off Cyprus:

• link here.
• this was considered "breaking news" and breathlessly reported -- oh, give me a break.
• but, yes, it's huge -- see Groningen below 
• but so is the Permian 140 trillion cubic feet
  
• TTE, Eni: Cronos-1 well
• preliminary estimates indicate there are about 2.5 trillion cubic feet (TCF) of gas in place, “with significant additional upside”
• that 2.5 trillion: put into perspective by numbers below
• Groningen, which the Dutch closed down? 2.8 trillion cubic feet
  

US proved reserves of natural gas by top eight states, 2016 - 2022:

Staggering global riches of natural gas (the numbers keep increasing). From an earlier post:

Top five countries:

• Russia: 6,000 trillion cubic feet
• Iran: 1,000 trillion cubic feet
• Qatar: 900 trillion cubic feet
• Turkmenistan: 600 trillion cubic feet
• US: 350 trillion cubic feet
• #11: Australia: 152 trillion cubic feet (as of January, 2014). (See this post.)
  

Now, let's go back and re-run the numbers that were posted earlier:

• that recent huge Mediterranean natural gas find: 30 trillion cubic feet; this was said to be biggest natural gas find ever in the Mediterranean
• Barnett, revised USGS figures: 53 trillion cubic feet
• Utica, newly revised figures: 782 trillion cubic feet
• Marcellus, EIA revised estimates: 65 trillion cubic feet, "proved" reserves
• Bakken/Three Forks, USGS estimate: 7 trillion cubic feet
• Qatar: 800 trillion cubic feet, wiki, conversion

Other recent stories on natural gas reserves

• Marcellus: 480 trillion cubic feet of technically recoverable gas, Penn State geoscientist 

Comments regarding natural gas reserves

• for me, it's hard enough getting my hands around billions of bbls of oil; it's almost impossible for me to get a feel for trillions of cubic feet of natural gas
• proved reserves are based on price of recovery, confusing matters from year to year
• estimates are just that, estimates (and often inflated for "certain" reasons)
• watch for this gotcha: sometimes reported in trillion cubic feet; sometimes in trillion cubic meters (35 cubic feet = 1 cubic meter; not trivial)
• for me it comes down to two things:
• any discovery over 30 trillion cubic feet natural gas is staggering, worth reporting
• "we" aren't going to run out of natural gas any time soon

Permian Natural Gas Production Hits New Record -- February 19, 2022

Link here.

• 14.34 Bcf/d on February 18, 2022
• highest level recorded, going back to 2012 when data started
• will put February on the path to strongest month for Permian gas production on record
• prior to this: only four time Permian gas had hit 14 Bcf/d
• coincides with rising rig count; now at 308 for the week ended February 16, 2022
• three rigs higher than previous week; 50% higher than same week one year ago
• = 2.4 million boepd -- needs to be fact-checked
• pricing
  
• Waha hub: $3.96
• Transwestern, Permian Basin: $3.875
• Henry hub: $4.60

So, another nice round number to remember: Permian natural gas -- 14.

*******************************
Girls' Soccer
New Rankings: Texas and National

Olivia's high school soccer team is ranked, link here:

• national: #76
• Texas: #11 (outranks almost all schools in north Texas)

Scholars:

• Olivia's high school has seven National Merit scholars; cross-town rival: eleven National Merit scholars.
• Elinor Holland, William Holland, Justin Lan, Aurora Tong, Thomas Tran, Jennifer Yan, Michael Yu. 
• four men, three women
• two northern European; four Chinese
  

*****************************************
Meanwhile in Portland

Judah

Clearing Out The In-Box: Winter And Natural Gas -- October 24, 2021

Winter

Winter, 2021 - 2022: increasing number of reports suggest a warm October will be followed by a brutal winter.

• a big pattern change will probably be in the offing as the calendar flips to November;

***************************
Natural Gas

UK: natural gas prices at the UK's NBP hub for delivery in the core winter months are at their steepest premium to nearby markets in 15 years, reflecting heightened supply security concerns. Or do they reflect the weather forecast by the Farmer's Almanac?

Google: US natural gas production as a percent of global production. Around 25% currently. Reuters sees huge growth in 2022. Link here. But look at this from the IEA, July 18, 2017.

Flashback: 2019, Forbes, BP's 2019 review, production and consumption of natural gas.

BP, 2020 in review: natural gas consumption decreased by 2.3%, similar to the fall seen in 2009 during the financial crisis. Despite the reduction in absolute levels of gas demand, the share of gas in primary energy continued to rise, reaching a record high of 24.7%.

Wildcard: Resident Biden could upset natural gas momentum. Forbes, September 9, 2021. 

A fool's errand: to predict fossil fuel prices. TotalEnergies: natural gas price spike unlikely to be sustained. The natural gas spike, apparently, is simply transitory. A great article for the archives.

TED: I have not watched this video; I probably won't. From the review, it suggests TED has really let us down this time.

Preaching to the choir (it is Sunday morning, after all): the Wreck of the Global Warming Narrative .. the global warming scare is more than three decades old, yet the disaster that's been forecast on a nearly daily basis since the late 1980s has yet to arrive. Meanwhile, Antarctica recorded coldest winter in recorded history.

The Magnitude Of Natural Gas Reserves In The US -- September 19, 2021

Disclaimer: I often make simple arithmetic errors and often misread things. If this is important to you, go to the source. 

Re-posting.

From a reader who follows the Appalachia, Marcellus, Utica, very, very closely -- 

The well: the Deremer 2HC, 3,617,694 boe  / 22 months on line -- the "Mighty Marcellus' best! 

Succinctly, I present you with data, with some context - current to July, 2021 - of the very best Marcellus well.

 

This in an effort to show the scale of what has been unfolding in the Appalachian Basin ...

Numbers:

• 20,982,624,000 (just shy of 21 billion) cubic feet production (3,627,694 boe using 5.8 conversion factor)
• 658 days online (~22 months)
• July output 18,291 million cubic feet per day, oil energy equivalent of 3,153 barrels per day 
• currently ranked #7 all time producer, on track to be #1 in a few months

Context:

     This one well can provide the annual residential gas needs for the cities of Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, and Buffalo COMBINED. (75,000 cubic feet per  household/year ... 3 persons/household)

The 5 wells on this Deremer pad all came online 22 months ago and have cumulatively produced 70 billion cubic feet ... enough to supply the annual residential gas needs of Philadelphia, Boston and Atlanta COMBINED

At a cost to drill and complete of approximately $50 million, this pad shows the incredible potential to any and all who continue to disparage embracing the  hydrocarbon bounty that lies beneath our feet.

Population / costs:

• the cities:
• Boston: 700,000
• Philadelphia: 1.6 million
• Atlanta: 500,000
• population total: 2.8 million
• one year to drill / complete the wells: $50 million
• $50 million / 2.8 million = $18 / resident / year -- assuming these wells produce for only one year, which, of course, is not the case. 

By the way, this is why the EU has worked so hard to convince Americans of global warming. The gap between the energy available in the US and the EU is absolutely incredible. The EU desperately needs to keep the US from gapping ahead of the EU. The EU will do anything to make US energy costs equal to that of the EU. 

LNG Suppliers Having Difficulty Keeping Up With Export Demand Despite High Prices -- Source -- August 13, 2021

Link here.

JKM: Japan-Korea-Marker. Running at $15 now; will trend toward $20 by end of year.

Meanwhile, LNG Rotterdam:

• last autumn: $2.86
• recent: $12.51

And, Henry Hub: $3.84

***************************************
Has Died At The Age Of 68

Nanci Griffith.

Link here. 

The Natural Gas Conundrum In The Bakken -- May 23, 2021

About a week ago I posted a note on the problem with ethane in the Bakken.  

A reader replied with an excellent four-part note. But that note really "bugs" me in a positive way. It was such a great note that I hate to see it "lost" in the comment section only. 

So, here is the four-part note brought up as a stand-along post (hopefully I have them in the same order). No editing but if there are any typographical errors, attribute them to me, not the reader.

I'll come back later and highlight some of this.

First part of that four-part comment: 

It pains me when I see even oil execs not knowing something so basic as what NGLs are. And the popular press and peak oil nitwits are even worse. Talk about stuff and don't understand it. If you follow this sector for years, you need to learn/understand it.

1. First important characteristic of oil and gas is that it is a natural product. This is very different than chemistry where you think of a single molecule. Here we have a soup of different molecules. Thousands of different ones. And different deposits have different mixtures. And many of the fuels also are mixtures still (e.g. gasoline). VERY different than an element or a molecule, something you have pure and in a little Sigma Aldrich bottle to do reactions with. These are MIXTURES.

2. Creating this mixture tendency are two phenomenon: first the incredible complexity of organic compounds. Carbon has four bonds and forms stable molecules with many carbons. You can have different length chains, branches, rings, double/triple bonds, etc. And can have heteroatoms (non-C or non-H, e.g. S).

Secondly, organic molecules are (in general) very soluble in each other. You know oil and water? They don't mix. But different oils DO mix. And even natural gas (methane, one carbon) dissolves to a decent amount in even very heavy oils like tar sand.

Of course, the exact shape (branches and the like) matters. But for very simple assessment, you can think of the number of carbons as determining the properties of the molecules. C-1 (one carbon) is the simplest form and is "pure" natural gas. It has a very low boiling point (requires incredibly cold temps to liquefy into LNG, e.g.) Gasoline is around C-8. It's actually a mixture and branching is important, but for very gross oversimplification, think of it as octane. It has a relatively low boiling point (thus the vapors you can see). Diesel is less volatile (has a higher boiling point). Think of it as C-16. It's actually a mixture and straight(er) chains are important, but think of it as C-16. Heavy fuel oil is even more carbons and higher boiling.

[The different fuels are made by distilling to separate the mixtures in crude oil, thus "distillation towers". It's actually more complex than that with some cleanup, and molecule fiddling (cracking and the like). But for gross simplicity, think of basically taking the oil and distilling it into different "cuts" of hydrocarbon length.

Second part of that four-part comment. 

3. Oil and gas are produced together (in most cases) along with water. An oil well (or a wet gas well) is really an oil/gas/water well. At the well-head, there is a "three phase separator" that gives vapor (top), oil (middle) and water (bottom). This is basically just done by mechanical separation, like in your salad dressing bottle. Can Google for Youtube videos of the mechanism--they are cool looking with some mechanical tricks to allow the separation at decent flow rates. But for simplicity, can think of it as a wide spot in the pipe allowing settling separation.

A gas well typically has a little bit of associated oil. And visa versa. And can even be sort of same amounts of each. In a few cases ("dry gas"), you may have insignificant oil. And even rarer, you may have "dead oil" that has no appreciable gas. But usually you are getting BOTH together. (Along with some useless water.)

From, the 3-phase sep, you get three streams, the first twof which are commercial:

a. The vapor ("wet gas") is mostly C-1, but has appreciable amounts of C-2 to C4, and a little bit of C-5+.

b. The liquid oil is called "crude" or "lease condensate". There is no fundamental chemical difference (like with elements) between crude and lease condensate. The are the same junk, different flavors. In many states (ND, for instance), there is no tax or regulatory difference. And the Feds treat them the same also. A few states (OK, TX) differentiate crude (from mostly-oil wells) and lease condensate (from mostly-gas wells) for tax purposes. And the lease condensate tends to be lower density (higher API gravity). But it is purely a matter of degree. No fundamental difference. The peak oil morons get this messed up all the time.

c. The water is just salt water from the deep earth. Very high salinity and can contain some radioactivity or the like. Honest, it's not that awful. I think deep ocean disposal would hurt nothing because of the dilution. But you ain't allowed to put it in streams or the ocean any more. Have to clean it up or inject it back into the deep earth. Usually the latter.

Third part of that four-part comment:

4. The numbers you see reported for oil and gas production (on the EIA 914 or the NDIC) are C&C (crude and lease condensate) and well-head gas. I.e. they are the amounts produced FROM the 3 phase separators at well pads.

After the well-pad, the C&C goes to refineries where it is (basically) separated into different boiling fractions: light ends (even including a little more natural gas, along with ethane, propane), naphtha, gasoline, diesel, kerosene, heavy fuel oil, and even asphalt. You can think of this as a much more complex, expensive, "second separation" of the liquid petroleum stream from the three-phase sep. High temps are used to drive the separation.

The natural gas from the 3-phase separators also gets a "second squeeze" in centralized, expensive plants, away from the well head. In this case, cold temps are used to separate components. The C-1 (methane) is natural gas. All the other components of the "wet" gas stream are called NGLs (natural gas liquids). Paradoxically most of them are NOT liquid at room temp. But they are still liquid at higher temps than methane.

Ethane, C-2, is separated and used for petrochem (mostly). But in some cases, it is fed back into the natural gas stream when the heat limits allow, if price of petrochem is not good enough. C-3, propane, also has petrochem uses, but is mostly for space heating where natural gas is not available (think of it as transportable natural gas, can use much flimsier cylinders because of it's higher boiling point.

C-4, butane is right at the boundary of boiling. On a cold winter day, it is all liquid. But at room temp, it is a vapor. Can also be stored in flimsier tanks. Your plastic Bic lighter has butane in it...the slight pressure keeps it liquid, but as it comes out it evaporates). Because of the temperature, butane is seasonal. In the winter, it (mostly) gets mixed into gasoline. In the summer, it can't be mixed into gasoline. Also has some petrochem uses, but in many cases, people just store it in summer and sell it in winter.

There are two isomers of butane. The straight chain is used as above. The branched butane is actually sold to refineries as a starting material for making higher octane branched compounds. The branched isomer sells for more, so there is enough incentive to separate the two isomers and sell them separately.

The higher carbon molecules in the gas stream are called "pentanes plus". Since, well, they are C-5 mostly and a small amount of C-6, etc. These molecules ARE LIQUID at room temp. In the wet gas stream, they are a vapor. But the gas processing plant separates them out and collects them as a liquid phase.

C-5+ is sort of oil like. Is (confusingly) called "plant condensate" or "drip gas". But we are talking MUCH higher API gravity (say 90 or so) than wellhead lease condensates (that are in the high 40s-50s or so). However, plant condensates ARE real liquid hydrocarbons--the only NGLs that are room temp liquids.

There is no economic incentive to separate the (three) different isomers of C-5 or the C-6 (and its isomers). Basically pentanes plus is sold as a mixture. The primary application is to just get thrown into an oil refinery (mixed with heavier crude). But it can also be used for gasoline mixing, for diluting tar sands, petrochem, etc. 

Fourth part of that four-part note: 

In general, the gas stream components are more valuable as they get longer. But this depends on the exact supply/demand, transport availability and processing costs. But in general: C-1 is cheapest; C-2 is pricier; C-3 next pricier; normal butane even better; isobutane better than that; and pentanes plus best (close to WTI, maybe a ten buck haircut).

Again, it pains me that people (peak oilers, grrr) follow this stuff and opine on it for years. And don't even learn the first thing about what they are talking about. Not asking for detailed chem engineering and distillation curves. But just basic f... concepts. RBN has explained this several times. And there are many other sources a Google search away. But I still see people who don't know the basic lay of the land.

Yeah -- It's Gonna Take A Lot More Natural Gas -- April 30, 2021

Updates

May 5, 2021: this is really quite humorous. For the archives. 

On the day, New York states shuts down the Indian Point nuclear plant, the Biden administration floats the idea of subsidies for nuclear plants. LOL. 

Nuclear plants don't need subsidies: they need regulatory relief (which they will never get); and, acceptance by the general public (which they will never get, either). 

The Biden administration is talking to the Democrat base: unions, which would build the nuclear plants. 

But it will take ten years for the first spade of dirt to turn for a greenfield project even if there was a "shovel-ready" project on the books today. Anyone who thinks the natural gas industry feels threatened by nuclear energy is an idiot. 

Environmentalists who won't accept transmission lines through Vermont and won't accept buried pipelines to carry natural gas from Pennsylvania to New Jersey certainly aren't going to fall for that nuclear energy talk. LOL. Where would all that radioactive waste be buried? At sea? Which Japan favors.

May 3, 2021: Indian Point to shut down.  ISO NY link here. 

Original Post

See this note.

Now look at this.

Link here.

I assume it might take two "average-size" natural gas plants to replace this Indian Point Unit 3 nuclear power plant. 

I assume it might take eight "average-size" on-shore wind farms to replace this Indian Point Unit 3 nuclear power plant. 

I don't know. Just guessing. I'm "calculating" wind farms at providing 25% of their nameplate capacity. And that's assuming one can find an optimum wind location in upstate New York. But again, just a WAG.

Top Energy Story Of The Day -- USA Set For Natural Gas Boom -- April 23, 2021

Link to Rigzone (as usual, some numbers rounded):

• natural gas production, US:
  
• 2019: a record 92.1 Bcfd natural gas produced in the US
• 2020: declined to 90.8 Bcfd due to Covid-19 lockdowns
• 2021: on track to fall to 89.7 Bcfd
• 2022: Rystad forecasts a new all-time record -- 93.3 Bcfd
• 2024: will exceed 100 Bcfd
• Haynesville: will off the largest gas output growth going forward
• will add about 10 Bcfd from 2020 to 2035, growing by 86% during that timeframe
• will account for 21% of the country's gas production in 2035
• compares to 13% in 2020
• if we round down to 10% and down to 20%, that's a doubling in contribution
• the Permian: another five Bcfd in growth by 2035;
• the Marcellus and Utica: will also add another five Bcfd:
• And, Rystad also ranks the regions by CO2 per boe produced; best to worse:
• Appalachian region: 7.1 kg of CO2 per boe
• Haynesville: 7.5
• Niobara: 10.6
• Permian: 10.9
• Eagle Ford: 11
• Bakken: 20.7 kg of CO2 per boe

See first comment. I wonder where he is now.

**********************************************
Forty-Three Years of Earth Day Prognostications

Everyone has their list. Google earth day predictions. 

The Smithsonian provides its version of these prognostications. 

A reader sent me a note regarding Paul Ehrlich. 

My not-ready-for-prime-time reply:

Thinking back on the Y2K scare, it's amazing how many "chicken little" fears we've suffered through the years.

One wonders if "seasonal flu" will ever make a comeback or if Covid-19 killed that one off forever?

And, of course, there was always Zika.

I guess in the 1950's we had the "15-minutes-to-run-home to our bomb shelter in case of  a nuclear attack" scare. I actually remember my parents improvising such a bomb shelter in our basement, and me worrying endlessly about the windows at the top of the foundation/ground level -- wondering if they were adequately sealed.

And then, of course, if they were adequately sealed, the level of radon would only worsen, and I would die of lung cancer before the age of fourteen, perhaps dropping dead while running home for a nuclear-bomb drill. Those drills were held once-a-year to determine who could get home in 15 minutes to die with their family, or remain sheltered-in-place to die with their teacher. Hiding under our desk was all we had; the supply closet was too small to hold fifteen second-graders and a pregnant teacher.

And, most worrisome of all: fluoride in our water supply. That was a scare that lingered through my freshman year in college.

I'm not sure how I survived 60+ years of such fears.

The way Sophia, age six and her friends talk about Covid, it is obvious that this is the 2020 version of fluoride, radon, Zika, and CO2 all rolled into one.

By the way, this is quite hilarious. Almost every day Sophia has a banana smoothie. This new routine started about two weeks ago. We make them at home, and she pretty much makes them herself -- she loves turning on the blender.

And everyday we take a plastic straw out of the drawer. Lately, I've been washing and re-using the plastic straws for an extra day or two -- not that I'm worried about the Pacific Ocean living her in Texas -- I just hate spending a couple of bucks on 5-cents worth of plastic.

Yesterday, Sophia noted the straw I gave her was still wet from the previous day. The jig was up. She wasn't going to use a wet straw. So I opened the drawer to get her a new straw and, as God is my witness, as they say in these parts, Sophia said: "No, it's Earth Day. We can't use a plastic straw." 

Obviously that was something her friends discussed at TutorTime yesterday afternoon.

Natural Gas -- Dire Warnings -- Canadian Geological Survey -- Flashback -- 2006 -- For The Archives -- Posted March 18, 2021

This video link was sent to me by a reader.

Could this guy have been more "far off"? This is absolutely incredible. 

Bottom line: this guy said that by 2025 natural gas supplies would be so constrained we would be in dire straits. I wonder where this guy is now?

The interesting thing was that this was from 2006.

2006 Peak Oil Conference - A Midnight Ride for Peak Oil Boston University, October 26-27.

The video was posted in 2013 so don't be confused. This speech was not given in 2013. It was given October 26 - 27, 2006. 

This was exactly one year before the Bakken shale revolution began. 

For newbies: the Bakken revolution began in 2000 with discoveries in eastern Montana, along the North Dakota state line. The "real" Bakken revolution began in 2007 with the EOG Parshall discovery. 

I assume this video was posted in 2013 just to demonstrate how "far off" this expert was.  

I doubt very many readers will actually listen to this speech, but it's incredible how "far off" he was. He was incredibly wrong.

A  huge "thank you" to the reader for sending me this.

Why Explorers Are Not Targeting More Natural Gas On The Way To Hydrogen -- Westwood -- March 18, 2021

For newbies: scope 1, 2, and 3 emissions. 

From Westwood: why explorers are not targeting more gas in response to the "Energy Transition."

There has been much talk about natural gas as a transition fuel, primarily in helping to lower emissions and pollution by displacing coal in power generation, but also in complementing intermittent renewables, and targeting the (blue) hydrogen economy in the longer term. Forecasters of energy demand, such as the IEA, tend to project gas demand holding up for longer than oil, and a number of E&P companies include natural gas as a core part of their energy transition and net-zero emissions strategies. Is there any evidence that explorers are now targeting more gas in exploration?

Not yet.  In fact, 2021 is expected to see the lowest proportion of high impact exploration wells targeting gas in more than a decade.

Overall, 32% of high-impact wells targeted gas prospects in 2011-2019. The highest proportion was  in 2019 when ~45% of high impact wells targetted gas. This was due to  drilling campaigns by BHP in deepwater Trinidad, BP in MSGBC and Exxon/Eni in the Eastern Mediterranean. There were also slight increases in 2014 and 2015 as East Africa was drilled out, however, oil has remained the primary target throughout the period accounting for two thirds of high impact exploration wells.

Reasons provided by Westwood:

So why is gas exploration not proving more popular during the energy transition?

Firstly, most of the world’s E&P companies have not yet committed to reducing their scope 3 emissions, and are therefore not specifically targeting natural gas exploration as part of an energy transition strategy. The focus is still on near term targets of reducing Scope 1 and 2 (operational) emissions to maintain a licence to operate.

Secondly, more than 60% of the discovered resource in 2012-2020 was gas, even though ~70% of high-impact wells were targeting oil. 

This was due to a number of giant gas discoveries, as well as the industry discovering gas in plays where oil was the primary target.

In fact, the industry has already found more natural gas than it needs or can commercialise in current market conditions. 

~36bnboe of gas discovered 2008-2016 remains in the ground with no current plans for development (see Westwood’s ‘Stalled Resources’ insight in October 2020). The exploration for gas that is happening now is focused on plays where the route to market is clearer, but big gas prospects with access to an attractive gas market that can be commercialized quickly are hard to find.

Until this equation changes explorers will still tend to favour oil.

Natural Gas-Fired Generation Has Increased Across The US With Minor Exceptions -- EIA -- December 6, 2020

Link here. 

• minor exceptions:
• NYISO,
• ISO-NE,
• California,

Hunch: the decline in natural gas-fired electricity generation reflects downturns in the general economy in those regions and/or state-mandated changes in energy sources and/or new pipelines.

Most amazing: PJM -- Ohio and east to the Atlantic Ocean, north of the NC-VA state line, and south of New England;

Interesting: ERCOT (Texas); Florida; SERC (southeast excluding Florida, Louisiana).

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The Weather Page

Winter: first big snowstorm of the season hits parts of New England. Link to The WSJ.

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The Real Estate Page

Santa Barbara County:

• Montecito Estate
• seller: Dennis Miller and wife
• buyer: Ellen DeGeneres
• deal: $49 million
• my hunch: Ellen not worried about wealth gap
• my hunch: Ellen and wife following California governor's decree to "stay-at-home"; could use estate for filming show, movie productions;

The deal was among a string of major transactions in Montecito over the past few months. Rancho San Carlos, a roughly 240-acre estate, recently sold for $63.25 million, and the sale of actor Rob Lowe's home home in the area recently closed for $45.5 million.

Ms. DeGeneres and her wife Portia de Rossi are widely known to be investors in real estate and have long had a home in Montecito. They sold a Bali-inspired estate in the area for $33.3 million in November, according to a person familiar with the deal.

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The Travel Page

We were stationed in the Moselle region of Germany for seven years.

From The WSJ earlier this week: Germany's Moselle region is ripe with deals on vineyard estates.

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Tokyo 2020-One Olympics

Tokyo Olympics delay costs may reach $2.8 billion. 

Actually if you read the story at the Fox Business link (https://www.foxbusiness.com/sports/tokyo-olympics-delay-costs-may-reach-2-8-billion) it appears to be much worse. 

Tea leaves, Tokyo Olympics 2021 will:

1. limit / ban guests from overseas
2. limit number of athletes
3. limit number of trainers and staff per athlete
4. limit press

And, of course, there's always a chance we won't see the games at all this summer.

Data points from the linked article:

• cost of the postponement could reach $2.8 billion
• prior to the postponement, Japan estimated the total cost would be $12.6 billion
• but a Japanese government audit last year said it was likely twice that much, about $25 billion
• Tokyo said the Olympics would cost $7.3 billion overall when it won the bid in 2013 in Buenos Aires, Argentina
• the good news: Tokyo organizers said they could add about $260 million from a contingency fund to help cover added costs. LOL. No typographical errors on my part. I don't know whether the original source is accurate. 
• the IOC is not being particularly helpful: it is unlikely that the IOC will chip in $650 million that was suggested by the IOC some months ago -- tea leaves suggest IOC not particularly optimistic about 2020-One Olympics going off as planned;
  

More On That Natural Gas Storage Record -- August17, 2020

Updates

August 18, 2020: See comments. I'm still curious what might explain the record increase in US natural gas storage -- broke through the five-year maximum. See graph below. Some suggest it may be due to decreased usage due to warmer temps in/along the mid-Atlantic states this past winter. That may be be an important contributor but the EIA graph would not have predicted that back in the winter of 2019 - 2020. A google search (US natural gas storage at all-time record) suggests the major reason for the US natural gas underground storage breaking through the five-year maximum was due to less LNG exports.

Good news: it appears exports are forecast to rise again, resulting in a jump in natural gas prices. 

Original Post

I find this incredible and for the most part, being reported nowhere in the mainstream media and I doubt most Americans are even aware of this. 

From  the most recent issue of Focus on Fracking (edited):

The natural gas storage report from the EIA for the week ending August 7th indicated that the quantity of natural gas held in underground storage in the US

• rose by 58 billion cubic feet to 3,332 billion cubic feet by the end of the week:
• which left our gas supplies 608 billion cubic feet, or 22.3% greater than the storage same time one year ago; and,
• 15.3% above the five-year average for the same week.

The 58 billion cubic feet that were added to US natural gas storage this week:

• was more than the average 51 billion cubic feet increase that was forecast by analysts polled by S&P Global Platts;
• more than the 51 billion cubic feet addition of natural gas to storage during the corresponding week of 2019; and,
• it was well above the average of 44 billion cubic feet of natural gas that has been added to natural gas storage during the same week over the past 5 years.

From the EIA (a dynamic link):

Working gas in storage was 3,332 Bcf as of Friday, August 7, 2020, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 58 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 608 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 443 Bcf above the five-year average of 2,889 Bcf. At 3,332 Bcf, total working gas is above the five-year historical range.

Wow, It Simply Never Quits -- UAE Natural Gas Discovery Could Be Largest Since 2005 -- Bloomberg -- February 3, 2020

Link here.

• new discovery: the Jebel Ali reservoir
• located between Dubai and Abu Dhabi (two biggest sheikhdoms in the United Arab Emirates)
• 80 trillion cubic feet of gas resources;
• the country is seeking to become self-sufficient in gas supply by 2030, a step that would allow it to break its reliance on imports from Qatar
• is that around 150 billion boe?
• could meet the country's gas demand for nearly three decades
• building nuclear, solar and coal-fired power plants, while Adnoc has invited international companies to help tap previously inaccessible gas deposits
• the Jebel Ali discovery is the biggest since the Galkynysh field was found in Turkmenistan 15 years ago, according to WoodMac’s Yates
• the announced resources would make it the fourth-biggest gas field in the Middle East behind Qatar’s North Field and Iran’s South Pars, which are part of the same Persian Gulf deposit that make up the world’s largest offshore gas field
• Abu Dhabi’s Bab field is the third-largest, according to WoodMac. 

See this post to put 80 trillion in perspective.