Absolutely Brilliant -- May 27, 2025

Locator: 48697ARCHIVES.

Holy mackerel: from ChatGPT tonight -- the question I asked ChatGPT -- "how many days has President Trump been in office? The answer (LOL). What am I missing?

                                        The correct answer is 127 days (second term). In his second term, President Trump has been in office for 127 days. Let that sink in.

Biggest news tonight: "NATO" agrees to let Ukraine strike as deep into Russia as it wants. Here we go.  

Almost as big: if this is true -- President Trump has directed that all US embassies quit scheduling student visa interviews. 

I have mixed feelings. Get out the yellow legal pad and line up the pros and cons. I personally think this is the singular act that will convince the doubters Trump means business. You may not want to take Trump literally, but you have to take him seriously. I think that's where journalists and pundits are not serving the American public well. Laughing at Trump, making jokes about Trump is not the right way to go about taking him on mano a mano. He likes making deals, and making deals for Trump is no laughing matter.

Back to student visas. My alma mater won't survive without Asian students. Nor will many other universities. Not in their present form. My hunch: every major university president is calling the Harvard president. His/her days are numbered if, in fact, it's true that the Trump administration has stopped all embassy interviews for student visas. Wow.

ESPN: NBA on TNT -- absolutely excellent. For me, I get ESPS via Hulu. Absolutely worth the subscription price of Hulu.  

Beer: I don't think I've had a beer in over a year. Finally I had one tonight -- while watching Knicks play the Indiana Pacers. 

"Half-Life" by Manhattan Project Beer Co., Dallas, TX, hazy IPA. Incredibly good. $10.00 for a six-pack. I see "Hop and Sting," made locally here in Grapevine is still $7.99. It was a toss-up whether to get "Hop and Sting" or a Manhattan Project Beer, but, I can't say otherwise, Manhattan Project Beer is absolutely the best.

They must make about a dozen varieties, varying in price from $10 to $20 for a six-pack. I'm wrong. They make 19 craft brews. My go-to: "Half-Life." Amazing. If you were a young college student, why would you have a part-time job at Lowe's when you could have a part-time job at Total Wine, specializing in Manhattan Project Beer with a minor in Bitburger Pils. LOL.

Life is complicated: 

I get so much good stuff from so many readers, it's hard to remember how they sent me something when I want to go back and capture it: e-mail; group chat; direct text; a blog link; etc. Life is getting complicated. 

Portland:

https://www.facebook.com/reel/3936816733131112

        This is why I enjoyed 30 years in the service, including 14 of those years overseas -- I met so many interesting folks. This guy is someone who I met so may times overseas.

Working on "sight words": 

Wow, never quit reading. 

I was blogging and a note happened to fall off the side of my chair, something I had written earlier; this made my night, LOL:

Ermen: supposed that Hatshepsut as Tuthmosis (Thutmose) III's sister  (p. 163) -- in fact she was his aunt.

Time for a musical interlude. I may not post anything, but I'm surfing YouTube.

Paradise: I see CNBC has a fluff piece on how "living in paradise differs from visiting paradise." 

I know exactly what they mean. I lived in paradise for 20 years or thereabouts -- hitchhiking during my college days; medical school in southern California; thirteen years with the family overseas, mostly Europe; 100 sorties in the F-15D; a summer in a NYC suburb; four years by myself in England; thirteen weeks in Yorkshire, England; a significant "other" at all times; a year reading Hunter S. Thompson; and four years of high school in Williston, North Dakota. 

If Tom Cruise had done nothing else, his legacy would have exceeded most with Top Gun. 

Keep a journal. The other day, an extended family member asked me the name of the first wife of another extended family member and their son -- it took me a few minutes to find the answer in my journal from 30+ years ago, but I found it. 

Some of the most iconic movie scenes in Moreno J's remix of Haddaway's "What Is Love?" Quick, who sang the female "accompaniment"?

The market: after a most remarkable day, the market is holding, at least for now.

Time to read. Enjoy some music.

Tueday -- May 27, 2025

Locator: 48696B.

The market: the Trump administration says progress is being made with regard to EU tariffs. 

Harvard: the Trump administration is in the process of canceling contracts with Harvard. See link. One would assume The New York Times, reporting this story, would come up with the most egregious examples of contracts being canceled -- contracts that are key to the US in some form or fashion. So let's see what the Times is reporting that is so critical and so worthy of taxpayer dollars. This is directly from the linked article. I can't make this stuff up.

"Examples of contracts that would be affected, according to a federal database, include a $49,858 National Institutes of Health contract to investigate the effects of coffee drinking and a $25,800 Homeland Security Department contract for senior executive training. Some of the Harvard contracts under review may have already been subject to “stop work” orders." -- NY Times. 

Comment: yeah, that's the type of research that US taxpayers are paying Harvard to undertake.

When you see this, all I can say, it's about time there was some "adulting" in Washington, DC (Trump, DOGE, Musk, et al). It's amazing The NY Times would print this with a "straight face."

***************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $61.13.

Active rigs: 35.

Four #new permits, #41955 - #41958, inclusive:

• Operator: Kraken
• Field: Rawson (McKenzie)
• Comments:
• Kraken has permits for two Dwyer East wells and two McCabe wells SESE 23-150-101, 
• to be sited 878 / 977 FSL and 402 FEL.

Two DUCs reported as completed:

• 40875, 1,105, Oasis, Barnes Federal 5202 43-11 2B, McKenzie County;
• 40876, 1,130, Oasis, Barnes Federal 5202 43-11 3B, McKenzie County;

Two interesting name changes:

• Koda Resources: two wells with "BH" (Bakken Horizontal) changed to "BHC."
• Oasis: with one well changed from "3B" (middle Bakken) to "3BU."

Well of interest with regard to the Oasis Barnes Federal wells noted above, two verticals and one horizontal:

• 15170 (vertical), 364, White Rock Oil & Gas, Barnes Federal 1-2, Indian Hill, t9/01; cum 290K 11/24; off line; total depth, 13,630 feet; spacing 320 acres (N2, section 2-152-102)
  
• 20485 (horizontal), 762, Oasis, Barnes Federal 2-2H, Elk (borders Indian Hill on the west), t7/11; cum 373K 12/24; off-line; 
• 11407, (vertical), Citation Oil & Gas, Fredrickson 1-2, Indian Hill, t5/85, cum 167K 2/25 (only one day in 3/25); producing from the Madison Formation;  Red River, dry; total depth, 13,60 feet; spacing, 160 acres (1/4 section).

Nvidia Earnings Out Wednesday, After Hours, Tomorrow — May 28, 2025

Locator: 48668NVIDIA.
Locator: 46070NVIDIA.

Updates

May 27, 2025: earnings out tomorrow, Wednesday, May 28, 2025, after market closes. 

May 24, 2025: link here.

May 24, 2025: analysts' expectations, Investopedia.

Analysts on average expect Nvidia to report: 

• quarterly revenue of $43.38 billion, 66% higher year-over-year; and, 
• adjusted net income of $21.29 billion, or 87 cents per share, up from $15.24 billion, or 61 cents per share, a year earlier. 

Original Post 

****************************************
Previously Posted

Locator: 48478NVDA.

All about tech, right now. 

Most important: AAPL, NVID, CRM.

Apple (AAPL) news here. (pending) 

Over on twitter: Evan, Giovanni Staunovo, and EconomyApp.

Start here. 

First two charts, Nvidia, link here:

• 2Q25: look at those incredible margins and other data points, from left to right:
• largest revenue center, "Data Center": $26.3 billion; grew 16% q/q
• revenue: $30.08 billion; grew 15% q/q 
  
• gross profit: $22.6 billion; grew 3pp q/q; 75% margin;
• operating profit: $18.6billion; grew 3pp q/q; 62% margin;
• net profit: $16.6 billion; grew 2pp q/q; 55% margin;

From yesterday:

• 1Q25: look at those incredible margins and other data points, from left to right:
• largest revenue center, "Data Center": $22.6 billion; grew 23% q/q
• revenue: $26.08 billion; grew 18% q/q 
  
• gross profit: $20.4 billion; grew 2pp q/q; 78% margin;
• operating profit: $16.9 billion; grew 3pp q/q; 65% margin;
• net profit: $14.9 billion; grew 2pp q/q; 75% margin; 
  

Salesforce, link here: 

• 2Q25: compare CRM margins below with NVDA margins above (spoiler alert: there's simply no comparison) and other data points, from left to right: 
  
• subscription and support: $8.8 billion; grew 9% y/y;
• five revenue centers: each $1 billion to $2 billion; each grew about 10% y/y;
• revenue: $9.3 billion; grew 8% q/q 
  
• gross profit: $7.2 billion; grew 1pp q/q; 77% margin;
• operating profit: $1.88 billion; grew 2pp q/q; 19% margin;
• net profit: $1.4 billion; grew 1pp q/q; 15% margin; 

Now, conventional comparison, CRM vs NVDA:

CRM, p/e = 46.54

NVDA, forward p/e = 40; current p/e = 74:

NVDA vs CRM: 

Summary of Nvidia's Earnings Call 

Link here. 

Positives: - Record Revenue Growth: NVIDIA reported a record revenue of $30 billion for Q2, a 15% sequential increase and a remarkable 122% year-on-year growth, significantly surpassing the expected $28 billion. - Strong Data Center Performance: Data Center revenue reached $26.3 billion, up 16% sequentially and 154% year-on-year, driven by robust demand for NVIDIA's Hopper architecture and networking platforms, particularly in generative AI applications. - Innovative Product Pipeline: The anticipation for the upcoming Blackwell platform is high, with expectations of several billion dollars in revenue from Blackwell in Q4. The platform promises significant improvements in performance and efficiency. - Diverse Customer Base: NVIDIA's customer base is expanding, with strong demand from cloud service providers, consumer internet companies, and enterprises across various sectors, including healthcare and automotive. - Growing Software Revenue: NVIDIA's AI Enterprise platform is gaining traction, with expectations to approach a $2 billion annual run rate by year-end, indicating strong growth in software and services.

Negatives: - Gross Margin Pressure: Gross margins decreased slightly due to a higher mix of new products and inventory provisions for low-yielding Blackwell materials, with expectations of continued pressure as new products ramp up. - Competitive Market in China: While Data Center revenue in China grew, the market remains competitive, and NVIDIA faces challenges due to export controls affecting its operations in the region. - Increased Operating Expenses: Operating expenses are expected to grow in the mid- to upper 40% range as NVIDIA invests in developing next-generation products, which may impact profitability in the short term. - Transition Challenges: The shift from Hopper to Blackwell may present challenges in terms of customer readiness and integration, particularly with the adoption of liquid cooling technologies.  

Overall: NVIDIA's earnings call highlighted strong financial performance and growth prospects driven by innovation in AI and accelerated computing, while also acknowledging challenges related to margins and competitive pressures.

***********************************
Disclaimer 
Briefly Reminder 

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia.  

 *******************************
Nvidia's 2Q Revenue and Net Income For Every 2Q Since Going Public

Link here.

The link has revenue and income data going all the way back to 1999. I will post only income data for past few years:

Net income:

Hearing Dockets -- Posted -- NDIC -- June, 2025

Locator: 48694DOCKETS.

Link here.

June, 2025, hearing dockets.  

Wednesday, June 25, 2025. Nine pages.

Thursday, June 26, 2025. Thirteen pages.

The NDIC hearing dockets are tracked here.

As usual this is done very quickly and using shorthand for my benefit. There will be factual and typographical errors on this page. Do not quote me on any of this. It's for my personal use to help me better understand the Bakken. Do not read it. If you do happen to read it, do not make any investment, financial, job, relationship, or travel plans based on anything you read here or think you may have read here. If this stuff is important to you, and I doubt that it is, but if it is, go to the source. These are cases to be considered by the NDIC, not permits. If approved by the NDIC, then operators can go ahead and submit permits to drill wells within the parameters of the cases that were passed.

Wednesday, June 25, 2025
Link here.
Nine pages.

Cases, not permits:

• 31802, Krakken, Pronghorn-Bakken, establish an overlapping standup 2560-acre uit; two wells; McKenzie County;
• 31803, Hess, Robinson Lake-Bakken, establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit; one well; Mountrail Couty;
• 31804, Oasis, Lake Trenton, Sixmile and/or Ft Buford-Bakken, establish an ovelapping standup 5120-acre, six wells; Williams County; 
• 31805, Enerplus, Spotted Horn-Bakken, establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit; one well, McKenzie, Moutrail counties;
• 31806, BR, Bowline-Bakken, establish one overlapping 1920-acre unit, four wells; McKenzie County;
• 31807, BR, Bowline-Bakken, Bull Moose, and Bakken pool to establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit; four wells; McKenzie County;
• 31808, BR, Little Tank and/or Bowline-Bakken, establish an overlapping 1920-acre unit; four wells; McKenzie County;
• 31809, BR, Little Tank and/or North Branch-Bakken, establish an overlapping 1920-acre unit, four wells; McKenzie County;
• 31810, BR, South Boxcar and/or North Branch-Bakken, establish an overlapping 1920-acre unit; four wells; McKenzie County;
• 31811, BR, Burning Mine-Bakken, establish three overlapping 1920-acre unit; four wells one each unit; McKenzie County;
• 31812, Dakota Energy, Climax-Bakken, establish a standup 1920-acre unit; four wells; Williams County;
• 31813, Foundation Energy, pooling; Billings County;
• 31814, Hess, pooling, Mountrail County;
• 31815, Hess, pooling, Mountrail County;
• 31816, Hess, pooling, Mountrail County;
• 31817, Hess, commingling;
• 31818, Hess; commingling;
  
• 31819, Oasis, pooling;
• 31820, Enerplus, pooling;
• 31821, BR, pooling;
• 31822, BR, pooling;
• 31823, BR, pooling;
• 31824, BR, pooling;
• 31825, BR, pooling;
• 31826, BR, pooling;
• 31827, BR, pooling, Bowline-Bakken; McKenzie County;
• 31828, BR, pooling, Bowline-Bakken; McKenzie County;

Thursday, June 26, 2025
Link here.
Thirteen pages.

The cases:

• 31829, Hunt Oil, Ross-Bakken, establish an overlapping 1920-are unit; three wells; establish an overlapping 224-acre unit; three wells; establish an overlapping 3840-acre unit; one well, Mountrail County, 
• 31830, Koda Resources, Daneville-Bakken, establish a 1920-acre unit; five wells; establish an approximate 3150-acre unit; eight wells; Divide County;
  
• 31831, Koda Resources, Alkabo-Bakken, establish six 1920-acre units; five wells on each unit; establish an overlapping 1920-acre unit; five wells on that unit; Divide County;
• 31832, Koda Resources, Fertile Valley-Bakken, establish a 1920-acre unit; five wells; Divide County;
• 31833, CLR, St Demetrius-Bakken, establish an overlapping 1920-acre unit; four wells; Billings County;
• 31834, NDIC, consider temporary spacing for a pool discovered by the Shadowcat well, #41137, Divide County;
• 31835, Silver Hill Energy, Big Meadow-Bakken and/or Temple-Bakken, establish a 2560-acre unit, five wells; establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit; one well; Williams County;
• 31836, Silver Hill Energy, North Tioga-Bakken, establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit; five wells; Burke County;
• 31837, EOG, Antelope-Sanish and/or Clarks Creek-Bakken establish an overlapping 2240-acre unit, three wells; McKenzie County'
• 31838, WGO, create a 320-acre unit; Golden Valley County; one well;
• 31839, Phoenix Operating, Zahl-Bakken establish an overlapping 3840-acre unit, one well; Williams County;
• 31840, Phoenix Operating, Zahl-Bakken, establish an overlapping 3840-acre unit; one well; Williams County;
• 31841, Phoenix Operating, Zahl and/or Little Muddy-Bakken, establish an overlapping 3840-acre unit; one well; Williams County;
• 31842, Phoenix Operating, Cottonwood-Bakken, establish an overlapping 3840-acre unit; one well; Burke County;
• 31843, Phoenix Operating, Big Meadow-Bakken establish a standup 2560-acre unit; five wells; Williams County;
• 31844, Phoenix Operating, Charbonneau-Bakken and/or Moline-Bakken, establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit; five wells; McKenzie County;
• 31845, Phoenix Operating, Bully-Bakken; establish a standup 2560-acre unit, five wells; McKenzie County;
• 31846, CLR, pooling;
• 31847, CLR, pooling;
• 31848, CLR, pooling;
• 31849, CLR, Hardscrabble-Bakken, to complete six wells on a existing 1920-acre unit; McKenzie, Williams counties;
• 31850, Koda Resources, pooling; 
• 31851, Koda Resources, pooling; 
• 31852, Koda Resources, pooling; 
• 31853, EOG, pooling;
• 31854, EOG, in Parshall-Bakken, to complete two wells on an existing 1920-acre unit; Mountrail County;
• 31855, Hunt Oil, commingling;
• 31856, Hunt Oil, commingling;
• 31857, Hunt Oil, commingling;
• 31858, Hunt Oil, commingling;
• 31859, Hunt Oil, commingling;
• 31860, Hunt Oil, commingling;
• 31861, Hunt Oil, commingling;
• 31862, Phoenix Operating, pooling; 
• 31863, Phoenix Operating, pooling; 
• 31864, Phoenix Operating, pooling; 
• 31865, Phoenix Operating, pooling; 
• 31867, Phoenix Operating, pooling; 
• 31868, Phoenix Operating, SWD;
• 31869, Phoenix Operating, SWD;
• 31870, Formetera Operations, SWD, Burke County; 
• 31871, Petro-Hunt, SWD well, Mountrail County;
  

One Word Today: RMDs -- May 27, 2025

Locator: 48693RMDS.

Consumer confidence: link here.

Consumer optimism got a much-needed boost in May on hopes for trade peace between the U.S. and China, according to a survey Tuesday.

The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index leaped to 98.0, a 12.3-point increase from April and much better than the Dow Jones consensus estimate for 86.0.

Much of the positive sentiment, according to board officials, came from developments in the U.S.-China trade impasse, most notably President Donald Trump’s halting of the most severe tariffs on May 12. 2025.

Toyota EV Charging Times -- Not Exactly The Leader In The Industry -- May 27, 2025

Locator: 48692TOYOTA.

Toyota, link here: okay, it's been 25+ years of folks telling us charging times weren't that big of an issue, and then this with one of the best names in the automotive industry:

From the link:

The Toyota bZ4X—now the bZ—has come a long way.

What started as a mediocre taxi-spec electric vehicle has now grown up into something you might actually want to own. I drove it in Texas this week and nearly every aspect of it felt improved: It now has more range, more features and even a Tesla-style charging port right from the factory.

However, in one key area, it's still the same as the outgoing version: maximum charging speed, which is still capped at 150 kilowatts. Slow charging speeds were one of the biggest complaints for existing bZ4X owners.

For cabbies in cities like New York who drive the bZ4X all day, spending 45 minutes to an hour at a charging station can mean losing money and passengers. So why hasn’t Toyota pushed the new bZ into a fast-charging EV like some of its rivals? It all comes down to production costs, Toyota said.

Interestingly, another article extolling the virtues of this "car" fails to mention how long it takes to charge this EV.

From ChatGPT when asked how long it takes to charge this EV. Can you imagine having a car salesman explain all this to you?

The 2026 Toyota bZ (formerly known as the bZ4X) offers various charging options, each with different charging times (basically all slow):

DC Fast Charging (Level 3)

Charging Time: Approximately 30 minutes to charge from 10% to 80%. 

Maximum Charging Speed: 150 kW.

Note: While the charging speed is capped at 150 kW, improvements such as battery pre-conditioning and an enhanced charging curve have been implemented to maintain higher charging speeds for longer durations, enhancing real-world charging efficiency.

Level 2 Charging (240V)

Charging Time: Approximately 9.5 hours to charge from low battery to 100% using a 32A charger. 

Onboard Charger: Higher trims are equipped with a 22 kW onboard charger, which can significantly reduce charging times if connected to a compatible high-power Level 2 charger.

Level 1 Charging (120V) 

Charging Time: Approximately 50 hours to charge from low battery to 100% using a standard household outlet.

Bottom line: It’s important to note that while the 2026 Toyota bZ has made strides in improving charging efficiency, its maximum DC fast charging speed remains at 150 kW, which is modest compared to some competitors. However, the enhancements in charging curve and battery pre-conditioning contribute to a more consistent and efficient charging experience.

EVs: this pretty much says it all, but there is much more to the story, albeit a very confusing story. Link here.

Raise your hand if you saw this coming. After exiting the US a couple of years ago, the purely electric MX-30 is also dead in Europe (including the UK). We noticed the model’s absence from several configurators across the Old Continent, so we contacted Mazda to find out what’s happening. Sure enough, the small crossover without a combustion engine has been quietly retired.

One Of The Best EVs On The Road Still Takes An Hour To Charge -- Manic Monday -- Again -- May 27, 2025

Locator: 48691EVS.

EVs: this pretty much says it all, but there is much more to the story, albeit a very confusing story. Link here.

Raise your hand if you saw this coming. After exiting the US a couple of years ago, the purely electric MX-30 is also dead in Europe (including the UK). We noticed the model’s absence from several configurators across the Old Continent, so we contacted Mazda to find out what’s happening. Sure enough, the small crossover without a combustion engine has been quietly retired.

***********************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $60.97.

New wells:  

• Tuesday, May 27, 2025: 51 for the month, 151 for the quarter, 363 for the year,
• 41204, conf, Silver Hill Operating, Ringneck W 159-94-11-23-2MBHX,
• 41144, conf, BR, Devils Backbone 5E,
• 40998, conf, Phoenix Operating, Jacobson 19-30-31 1H-LLR,
• Monday, May 26, 2025: 51 for the month, 151 for the quarter, 360 for the year,
• 40895, conf, Phoenix Operating, Jacobson 19-30-31 6H-LL,
• 40831, conf, Hess, EN-Horst-154-93-0310H-10,
• 40791, conf, Phoenix Operating, Jacobson 19-30-31 5H,
• 40790, conf, Phoenix Operating, Jacobson 19-30-31 5H,
• 40229, conf, Hess, EN-Horst-154-93-1003H-7, 
• Sunday, May 25, 2025: 51 for the month, 151 for the quarter, 355 for the year,
• 41205, conf, Silver Hill Energy, Ringneck 159-94-11-23-3MBHX,
• 40501, conf, Oasis, Lee S 5201 21-8 5B,
• 40500, conf, Oasis, Lee S 5201 21-8 4B,
• Saturday, May 24, 2025: 51 for the month, 151 for the quarter, 352 for the year,
• 40810, conf, Hess, E-Uran A-LW-154-93-1521H-1, 
• 40489, conf, Oasis, Lee S 5201 21-8 3B,

 RBN Energy: US E&Ps dial down CAPEX on growing concerns about future oil prices.

Over the past month, E&P executives have addressed shareholder and analyst concerns amid the murkiest market conditions since the onset of the pandemic in Q1 2020. One industry leader pointed out that on an inflation-adjusted basis, there have only been two quarters since 2004 when front-month oil prices have been as low as they are today (excluding 2020). In today’s RBN blog, we review what we heard from E&P brass — a measured response that melded confidence in the industry’s new fiscally conservative, shareholder-focused business model; modest spending reductions; and preparations for more substantial responses to future erosion in commodity pricing. 

Producer commitment to their current investment strategy was showcased in a quote from Coterra Energy CEO Thomas Jorden, who said his company “is an ark, not a party boat.” The emphasis is on financial stability through maximizing free cash flow and prioritizing shareholder returns. Travis Stice, Jorden’s counterpart at Diamondback Energy, pointed out that the U.S. shale industry has evolved to this mature stage of development from the initial proof of concept, when E&Ps frequently outspent cash flow. Capital spending by the 38 companies we follow declined 3% from full-year 2023 to 2024 as oil prices fell and remained at the reduced level in their original 2025 guidance as E&P managements ignored exhortations from the new Trump administration to dramatically increase production.

The average monthly price for WTI hit a 2025 peak in January at $74.68/bbl, then fell through the $70/bbl mark in March and averaged $60.76/bbl through the first three weeks of May. Concerns about future oil pricing have arisen based on slowing economies, OPEC production increases, and the potential impact of tariffs. As a result, producers cut 2025 capital spending estimates during their Q1 2025 earnings releases by 4%, or approximately $2 billion, to $60.1 billion (blue bar at far right and left axis in Figure 1 below). The Oil-Weighted E&Ps shaved off $1.1 billion, or 4%, from original capital outlay estimates to $23.3 billion. The Diversified E&Ps are guiding to a $1 billion, or 4%, reduction in capex to $25.9 billion. The Gas-Weighted E&Ps, which are seeing stronger pricing for most of their output, trimmed spending by a modest $125 million, a little under 1% of their capex budgets, to $10.9 billion.

Figure 1. E&P Capital Spending and Production, 2014-Q1 2025E.

Source: Oil & Gas Financial Analytics, LLC