Global coal demand is set to rise by 1.4% this year and surpass a
record-high level of 8.5 billion tons for the first time, the
International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Friday.
While
coal demand in the United States and the EU is set for a 20% record
decline this year, coal use in emerging economies “remains very strong,
increasing by 8% in India and by 5% in China in 2023 due to rising
demand for electricity and weak hydropower output,” the IEA said in its
Coal 2023 annual report today.
The US and the EU are not the problems here. Now that wind and solar energy is / are now the answer to all our global energy problems, the question is why India and China continue to add coal to their energy mix, rather than cutting coal use to the same extent that the US and the EU have.
Had India, China, and the rest of the emerging markets cut their coal demand by 20%, we would not have even needed COP28.
By the way, "global coal demand is set to rise by 1.4%." Are you kidding me? A gazillion tons of coal use worldwide in a dozen emerging nations and the IEA bureaucrats can forecast coal use to this preciseness. LOL. The EIA can't even accurately account for oil supplies in the US from week to week. Yes, this is a fact. Doesn't even need fact checking but I will provide a link later.
Meanwhile, it appears New England will pivot from natural gas (clean) to coal and heating oil and crude oil and diesel (dirty) if it really gets cold this year and next.
All I can think of is Albert Einstein's definition of insanity.
You have to read to the third paragraph and even then it's easily missed:
China is adding coal plants to tackle energy security concerns, but this doesn’t mean it is backing away from its previously stated emissions curbs, Chinese delegates said at the COP27 summit this week.
China may be adding new coal plants to prevent a repeat poor performance from recent years that triggered electricity shortages in the Asian nation, but these coal plants will serve as a buffer to volatile global energy markets in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the country’s delegates said.
Previous figures from a senior researcher at State Grid of China Corp Energy Research Institute estimated China’s coal expansion would total 270GW of new plants through 2025—more than what the United States has now.
Key points:
China embracing coal (this is not even new; China is simply doubling down);
China blames Ukraine war -- despite embracing coal for decades
China's coal expansion -- new plants between now and 2025 -- three years -- China will build more new coal plants than the entire number of coal plants in the US
China will build more new coal plants than the entire number of coal plants that currently exist in the US
incredible on so many levels
with so many EPA regulations in the US, it would probably be impossible for the US to build even one new coal plant in the US
John Kerry? Worried about flaring in the Permian.
China gives "cover" to western European countries returning to coal, like Germany.
And if "we" are returning to coal, we're going to be using natural gas and crude oil for a long, long time.
For investors, another open-book test.
************************** For The Archives Veterans Day - 2022
Speaking at the Veterans Day assembly, O. C. Taylor Elementary School, November 11, 2022.
Granddaughter Sophia introduced me and handed me the microphone.
Photos by the "Yearbook" photography staff, third and fourth grade students.
I guess the Texas grid held after hitting record demand;
apparently things are in better shape than expected: works that way as long as the sun shines and the wind blows, which means Texas will be fine this summer
that doesn't mean we won't have warnings, alerts, brownout and rolling blackouts but won't amount to much
bigger story will be watching ISO-NY and ISO-NE
that "winter thing" a couple of years ago: not only a "one-off" but it wasn't due to excessive demand
ERCOT today:
capacity projected to be 86K MW
demand projected to max out at 76K MW
Nicest thing about 104°F over the weekend?
Monday morning, today, feels almost cool
poolside with strong breeze; quite cool
this a.m. -- still in bed -- I thought the a/c had come on -- it felt so cool -- but I don't use a/c when my wife is not home
The Sports Page:
NASCAR yesterday: what little I saw, not interested
PGA: stellar tournament this past weekend and now the US Open this week -- Brookline (Boston), MA
Rory! Phil, who?
NBA: fifth game tonight; now it gets serious; series tied; Stephen Curry amazing
Cryptocurrency:
two cryptocurrencies stop withdrawals: Binance and Celsius;
Let's see, one pays for a large luxury item -- let's say, an Apple computer -- $2,500 -- on a major credit card, with "promise to self" to pay off in one month
promise broken
first month balance not paid in full: 24% APR interest rate
difficulty paying it off; miss the deadline; vacationing, forgot about due date? Add "late fee" to that 24% APR interest
Big Bank: making huge amount of money
Now, imagine, make that same large luxury item purchase and retailer says, "four easy installments" with no late fees and no interest as long as fully paid on time -- over "four easy installments"
now we get story after story in the press telling us BNPL is "bad"
ever wonder who plants those stories?
next big thing: BNPL
but interestingly, we've had BNPL forever -- only difference, AAPL is now getting into this big time
Firestone: has had BNPL for as long as I can remember. An incredible marketing idea. Except for annual inspections and simply oil changes, my hunch is that the average automobile "tune up" or "servicing" runs $600 for the average American, being able to pay for that very, very necessary charge over six months at no interest is a godsend for many. I wonder how many folks take advantage of this?
************************ Anti-Fracking
Tea leaves suggest OPEC knew long ago that their spare capacity was a myth.
their biggest fear: US shale would fill the gap
all of a sudden, OPEC loses not only money, but power
then, story after story about the dangers of fracking
ever wonder who planted those stories?
************************ From Twitter
Things don't just happen.
They happen by design.
************************* But ...
... having said all that, my favorite story all weekend was AP's fact checking confirmed that EVs placed a strain on California's power grid more than a year ago ... and it was not covered by mainstream media until someone noted it on twitter.
The AP trying to spin that story was more hilarious than the actual story itself.
containers actually reaching the terminal and being off-loaded has plummeted since Brandon intervened;
at the time Brandon intervened, there were 60 cargo ships anchored off-shore; now there are 102 container vessels waiting for berths in Los Angeles and Long Beach
unloadings have dropped 14% month/month (November/October)
unloadings have dropped 13.2% year/year (2021/2020)
smoke and mirrors: for the year, 2021 will be better than 2020, but the import volumes were front-loaded in the first half of the year, when congestion, though significant, was less severe than it is now -- after Brandon interceded
November, 2021, after Brandon interceded:
capacity (ships anchored off shore): has increased
unloadings have decreased
November, 2021:
at the beginning of the month: 637,329 TEUs (a measure of capacity)
at the end of the month: 745,305 TEUs
once containers get unloaded at the terminal, it's call dwell time, until they are loaded on rail or truck for movement;
dwell time by rail has dropped from a high of 13.5 days this summer (2021) to just two days, the lowest since pre-Covid; this is from the port's spokesperson; it needs to be fact-checked and definitions provided; a drop from 13.5 days to two days seems almost impossible; if not, investors, take note.
this comes at a time when auto manufacturers desperately need the cash to advance their EV-revolution; the quarterly and annual reports could be disasterous
European auto stocks are on watch heading into Friday's cash session
in the U.S., after ugly November sales data was released from across the
pond.
new registrations plunged 17% in November, marking the
fifth month in a row where the region's auto market contracted,
according to Bloomberg Friday morning.
new car registrations came
in at 864,119, the worst number since the European Automobile
Manufacturers’ Association started tracking figures in 1993, the writeup
says.
Garg: even with the above, $70 billion cost to generate $8.6 billion of annual net income results in a project that doesn't even pay out on NPV5 (NPV definition).
Saudi Arabia: Prince MBS takes the reigns; new leadership coincides almost exactly with what is now going on in London;
Covid-19, NYC, link here: cases hit an all-time high, on a daily basis, this past week: 20,000 new cases in one day
November 19, 2021: coal really is the transitional fuel. And "we haven't even seen any true EV penetration yet. LOL. From social media.
Later, 6:46 p.m. CT: I continue to doubt that President Biden is in charge of much of anything in his White House. This suggests there are two huge factions: one faction is very, very ideological and will do everything -- no matter how painful to the American public -- to kill "US oil." The other faction is reality-focused and very, very concerned that the mid-terms could be devastating. Link to Irina Slav.
Later, 6:12 p.m. CT: COP26 is hardly over and as noted, "coal is back on the table as a transitional fuel." From twitter:
COP26: Pretty funny. China and India opened the door. Coal is back on the table as a transitional fuel. LOL. And to think John Kerry signed off on it and said it was "a great agreement."
this is really amazing when you think about it:
85 cars in Brandon's motorcade
200 private jets
'2 weeks of meeting that could have been held on Zoom; and, for all of that,
coal is back on the table; didn't even get to natural gas or crude oil.
Coal in the US, Brandon's own agency, link here: the EIA estimates that the US will use almost twenty percent more coal to generate electricity in 2021 than it did in 2020 ... and this is before EVs make any significant inroads.
Another pipeline at risk:
Brandon: "I'll show them who's boss. Shut down Line 5."
FERC: "Here, hold my beer."
FERC could wreak havoc in Missouri if it shuts down the STL Pipeline. Link here.
I have no dog in this fight.
The Dems now control FERC, 3 - 2.
Shortage? What shortage? OPEC sees huge surplus next year. Link here:
The UN Climate Conference, 2021, COP26: the takeaway -- China and India opened the door -- coal is back on the table as a transitional fuel.
this was actually a step back from the Paris Protocol or whatever the last major summit was called. two 30-second elevator observations:
this was a complete failure -- because it did not advance the Paris
Protocol. Regardless of what the UN might say, it was China and India
that carried the day -- and they carried the day with commitment to
continue using coal, like "forever."
there was much more emphasis on the CEOs of Fortune 500 companies being
there. They understand the importance of virtue signaling. Every
corporate presentation now includes an "ESG slide" and "COP26" needs to
be on that slide.
from now on, every country will go its own way, with reality leading the way;
it raises questions on the future of such conferences. These events are
becoming bigger than the Summer Olympics and generating a whole lot
less in excitement. How do you spell "ho-hum"?
That first line, "... or whatever the last major summit was called." Quick review, courtesy of wiki.
COP: conference of the parties
Framework Convention, 1992
Berlin, 1995: first UN Climate Change Conference
Kyoto Protocol, 1997: to establish legally binding obligations for developed countries (China, India, given a pass)
Kyoto Protocol conferences: annually beginning in 2005
Durban Amendment, 2011: supposed to result in a binding treaty; to be defined by 2015; become effective in 2020
Prelude to Paris Agreement: annually from 2011 to 2015
Paris Agreement, 2015: Kyoto Protocol "passed"; international treaty; legally binding (LOL)
COP 26: first UN Climate Conference to actually be advertised as a "COPXX" just like "SuperBowl XX." Twenty-sixth COP, but the third meeting of the parties of the Paris Agreement ; US formally (and legally withdrew on November 4, 2020; President Biden "signs the instrument to bring the US back into the Paris Agreement; treaties require 2/3rd majority of US Senate; vote has not taken place
COP 27: to be held in Egypt, 2022
COP 28: to be held in UAE
It appears COP26 will be seen as the high tide.
Items for further discussion:
we have only ten years to act -- 1994, and every year after that
Greta has moved on: it appears Greta has moved on to global issue du jour
this year: Covid vaccine equity
next year: "Taylor Swift licensing" protocols
coming: a Tesla in every garage
China and India: set unobtainable goals for 2060
2.5°C vs 1.5°C
new sheriff in town: President Xi
zero dollars for all those sinking islands
it was all about sinking islands; why did that meme "go away"?
quick: name the Pacific island that is the poster child for global warming: Kiribati. The atoll has actually gained more land above sea level since the Kyoto Protocol
Finally, note:
these UN conferences are still numbered by COP -- so this was COP26. The longer this goes on, the less urgency is obvious. COP28 is still planned for UAE in 2023
in an attempt to return to some sense of urgency, the conferences will eventually morph into PPA (parties of the Paris Agreement); COP26 was held in conjunction with PPA3
PPA5 will likely be the "lead-off" meeting. It is still unknown when / if PPAs will become annual events. Tea leaves: PPA4 in 2025 and every every five years after that, although if the billionaires want to party sooner, we could see these events on an annual basis starting next year;
******************************** Doofus
John Kerry.
Touts "good" climate deal ... after China, India announce they won't be giving up coal any time soon.
I just can't imagine spending the best (and last) years of one's life doing something so meaningless. Speaking of which, where is his yacht moored this year, Connecticut or Rhode Island?
Countries strongly dependent upon coal, ZeroHedge:
Oil: meanwhile the stories keep coming in -- shortage of crude oil; end-of-year crude oil could see $90-Brent; $87-WTI. With WTI at $84 yesterday, I don't see a lot of difference between yesterday's price and end-of-year price as forecast by Goldman's Jeff Curie. Remember: whether or not guys like Jeff Curie are right or wrong, folks make decisions based on their estimates.
September, 2021: coal stocks at key global hubs fall by half in 1H21. Link at ArgusMedia. The numbers are daunting:
expressed as the number of days of local consumption or throughput: 40 days in June
is a 47% reduction y/y and last year was the year of the plague
this number now nears the bottom of the 2017 - 2019 range
the data reflects a tighter supply-demand balance in 2021 which has been a key factor in driving seaborne prices higher
remains a risk ahead of the northern hemisphere heating session
supply decline driven by two factors:
inclement
weather early in 2021, reduced railing and discharging capacity; mining
disruption from safety checks, strikes, and protests
the
compounding impact from rising coal burn in some markets, particularly
China and India, driven by firm power demand, and gas-to-coal switching
in the Atlantic because of surging gas prices
much more at the link but despite decline in China, the article mentions nothing about the spat between China and Australia
For the archives. I've pretty much lost interest in this story. As one individual wrote: "This train left the station 35 years ago." Those thinking that China and India (and many other countries) will give up coal aren't watching the same movie as the rest of us.
Investors losing their patience, Rigzone. Link here.
Owing to a collapse of oil prices at the end of 2018, M&A activity in oil and gas has almost ground to a halt after a flurry of deals last autumn. After a decade of funding the expansion of unconventional oil and gas, Wall Street investors have lost patience and want a return on their investment.
Andrew Dittmar,
Senior M&A Analyst at Enverus, notes, "investors who funded the shale revolution over the last decade have become vocal in advocating for pay-outs and cutting back on providing new capital. That flowed through to limited M&A and a negative reaction to deals for much of the year."
India's upside for oil demand seems unlimited, Rizone. Link here.
With almost 1.4 billion people, India remains the most
energy-deprived nation on Earth. The upside for demand seems almost
unlimited. India has 635 million people under the age of 24. This is a
burgeoning young population the size of the total populations of the
U.S., Japan, Germany, France, and Canada. Coal will remain the main
source of energy, but the proven global reality that demand mounts as
human development progresses makes India’s oil usage unidirectional: up.
Today, oil accounts for 25 percent of India’s total energy demand,
rather high for a still developing country. The latent demand, however,
is just staggering. Indians use less than 0.2 gallons of oil products
per day, versus 2.6 gallons for the U.S. Even though it has almost 11
times more people, India overtook Japan only in 2015 to become the
world’s third largest oil consumer after the U.S. and China.
Over the past decade, China (45 percent) and India (20 percent) have
accounted for the bulk of new global oil demand. Driven by more diesel
fuel, gasoline, and LPG, India could race past China to become the
world’s primary new consumer within five or seven years. For those
claiming “the end of oil,” the truth is that the world’s most vital fuel
has no material substitute whatsoever. Electric transport, for
instance, is overly expensive here in the rich U.S., let alone for a
still developing country where 70 percent of the people subsist on
biomass. Dreaming of the same luxuries that Westerners enjoy,
gas-guzzling SUVs now comprise 35 percent of all car sales in India.
****************************************
The Apple Page
About a year ago, I forget exactly when, I bought a new iPad Pro along with the latest generation Apple Pencil.
I love the iPad Pro for surfing the net but not much else. I thought it would be possible to use it for blogging, but it's not optimized for such, at least without a peripheral keyboard. So, I use is mostly for surfing.
It links perfectly and seamless with any number of BlueTooth speakers, that I have around the house. I learned recently that there is an "Alexa" app for the iPad and that, too, works great. I assume it's tied in with my monthly Amazon Music subscription. Doesn't matter to me one way or the other. Over the weekend I learned that there is a Kindle app that works on the iPad Pro and now I have downloaded the books I have bought from Amazon. Also, a subscription to a art/painting magazine to which my wife subscribes can be downloaded on the app. Awesome.
But I had forgotten about the pencil. Never used. Had completely forgotten I even bought it. While re-organizing the closet two weekends ago I stumbled across the unopened Apple Pencil box. Wow.
With the Daytona 500 postponed, and the PGA tournament a real bust, I had a lot of free time.
Daytona 500: after an incredible opening -- President Trump, grand marshal, and Melania, making a grand entrance -- folks disappointed that his limousine didn't take the 31° banks at 70+ mph -- the race went for 20 laps or so before it was postponed / rain delay.
PGA tournament: The host, Tiger Woods, placed dead last, #68 in a field of 68. And he was there by himself. Ryan Palmer placed #67; and, then three were tied at #64. Tiger Woods was +11 for the tournament, dropping five more in the final round. Adam Scott was the winner at -11 for the round.
So, I had a lot of time to play with the new Apple Pencil.
It's truly amazing. Best feature. It charges simply by being next to the iPad Pro. It doesn't need to be plugged into anything and no cables. Simply place the pencil next to the iPad Pro and it charges.
I did not know which "painting" app to purchase. Good, bad, or draw, after searching the net, I settled on "Procreate" for $9.99 or $10.00 (don't remember which). [I just checked the receipt: with tax, $10.81.] Today, I note that "Procreate" gets 4.5 starts (out of 5) or better at the Apple App Store.
I had forgotten how easy it was to add money to my Apple Account -- I don't think I've added money to that on-line account for six years (seriously; it could be longer) -- it still had $1.85, but I added $20 or $25.
And then a couple of clicks later I had "Procreate" on my desktop. It's not quite as intuitive as I expected, but I found a great YouTube video to get me started, and after learning a few basics, I was in business.
Most amazing is the multi-finger "touches" that can do so much. "Procreate" calls them "power-moves." Also, the layering. Absolutely incredible.
I don't know if "Procreate" is the "best" app for such stuff, but Sophia is going to have a great time with this one.
The Apple Pencil also works with Apple Notes and I'm sure it works elsewhere.
One certainly doesn't need the Apple Pencil, but it sure is fun. I'm thinking I can use it for some of my graphics on the blog. We'll see.
Hunch: Chicago police chief will probably be fired. Murders in Chicago now exceed those of New York, Detroit. In Chicago, year-to-date, 251 shot and killed; 1,171 shot and wounded; total homicides, 276. A person is murdered every 17 hours in Chicago.
Netflix: no longer "the next big thing." NFLX falls 11%; misses subscriber growth.
Yup:
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, relationship, or travel decision based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here.
Music: looks like a night of music. Slow, very slow, news day. Losing energy.
Smartest guys in the world, it appears, answers for everything. Although I can count on one hand the number of covers The Economist has devoted to Brexit.
Coal. Adani, headquartered in the country of India, will open one of the world's largest coal mines in the world. Wiki even has a stub on this coal mine, it's that big. It almost appears the "Carmichael" is the "Bakken" of Queensland, but coal instead of oil. India is on the road to being coal-free; they will simply open coal mines in Australia. LOL. See more at this post.
I've talked about this before. This is why I can't take "global warming" seriously. If the world was really going to end in twelve years (or more accurately, if "we don't do something within the next twelve years ...") "we" would have put a stop to this (building more coal plants) a long time ago. It's not as if there are no alternatives to coal.
But here it is. The world has less than twelve years to act (Beto says ten), and "since 2000, the world has doubled its coal-fired capacity to around 2,000 gigawatts (GW) after explosive growth in China and India." [Perhaps China and India did not get the memo.]
But get this: a further 236GW is being built and 336GW is planned.
Algore alerted the global movers and shakers back in 1994 about CO2 and global warming. After he invented the internet. Since then, it appears, we've added more coal-energy than ever. It's hard to take global warming talk seriously when I see that.
Read more at carbonbrief.org (https://www.carbonbrief.org/mapped-worlds-coal-power-plants) -- it's interactive.
Yes, that site is a "global warming" site and it is noted that use of coal is declining, and will continue to decline. However.
Due to a wave of retirements across the EU and the US in the past few years, 227GW of coal energy has been shut down. Electricity generated from coal has plateaued ("Pat, I would like to buy a vowel") since 2014. But still, with only twelve years to go (Beto, ten years), it seems "we" should have been acting more quickly. Whatever.
[By the way, if you really read the numbers and the timelines closely, things don't add up.]
The good news: these folks at carbonbrief.org say we have "a few decades": "All unabated coal must close within a few decades if warming is to be limited to less than 2C above pre-industrial temperatures.
Even better news: the folks at carbonbrief.org have not been watching the solar minimum science that NASA has been reporting recently.
***********************************
Speaking of Coal
I'm roasting my third beer-can chicken of the season right now. Wow, what a great aroma.
I use charcoal. I used to be really, really conscious of getting my hands dirty. Not any more. About a year ago I decided to really "play" in the coal. Get my hands really, really dirty. Enjoy the visceral feel of old briquets.
It was a lifestyle choice.
And then this. Earlier I wrote that I just bought a new book: Finding Fire. There are incredibly great pictures of really, black, coal-covered hands, holding charred wood, cold embers, old briquets. Earthy. Wonderful.
How many remember this post of just a few days ago?
Dumb and dumber: New Zealand's strategy to end global warming? Story here:
halt immediately any new permits for offshore oil and gas exploration
yeah, that will solve the "problem"
mostly it will push future investment overseas
but, I suppose, the hobbits are happy
If too many words in that story, this screenshot:
So, New Zealand cuts their potential revenue in an effort to minimize a perfectly harmless gas, CO2, at "normal" atmospheric concentrations. In fact, most/all plants require CO2 for energy.
By the end of the next decade -- that would be by 2029 -- India has plans to require that all cars sold in that country will be coal-fired --Bloomberg. This does not qualify the country for Einstein's definition of insanity because this is something "new" for India -- and something no other country has tried. But still, intuitively, it seems it should make the list.
There are two fallacies, of course: one, there won't possibly be enough EVs manufactured to meet India's need, unless Elon Musk ramps up to a gazillion cars/week:
India’s potential plan to sell only electric cars by the end of next
decade would require nearly eight times the global stock of such
vehicles, according to the International Energy Agency.
The
country would need to sell more than 10 million electric cars in
2030, compared with the almost 1.3 million on the road worldwide in
2015, the agency said in an emailed response to questions. The goal also
equals 10 percent of the 2030 target for electric vehicles on the road globally agreed to in the Paris climate talks.
Second, it appears the politicians who have thought up this bizarre plan have no idea how inefficient the whole process is, and will require huge amounts of coal:
While the details are yet to be worked out, “it is an ambitious plan
nonetheless,” the IEA said. “Regardless, the exact formulation of the
target and the extent of its long-term achievement, it is a good step
that will help India to be among the global leaders in deploying a
technology that is crucial to temper increasing oil import needs, local
air pollution in cities, and limit CO2 emissions.”
EVs may solve their urban problems with regard to smog, but it will simply shift CO2 emissions (for what it's worth) to another location -- namely the power plants that use coal.
Of course, the Indian government will eventually put a huge CO2 tax on coal-fired plants that the country has effectively mandated in the first place.
I don't know the best way to handle this. It's been a problem from the start. I hate to clutter the blog with a lot of unrelated, non-Bakken energy stories, but those stories are critically important (at least to me) to help put the Bakken into perspective. [If I had not been following these other stories, based on what I read in The Los Angeles Times I would have thought that the entire world had gone to intermittent energy (wind and solar) and that the oil companies had converted their rigs to wind turbines/towers and solar panel supports.]
I track these unrelated, non-Bakken energy stories elsewhere, but if I just provide a link, there is risk that the link will break some months down the road, and the gist of the story will be gone; on the other hand, if I post excerpts of the story at the site where I track such things, the one page would become excessively long.
So, until something better comes along, I will continue to clutter the blog with these unrelated, non-Bakken energy stories, and then link them at the page where I track such events.
India
GE announced today it will invest $200 million to develop and supply Indian Railways with 1,000 diesel locomotives.
The company received a Letter of Award from the Ministry of Railways for a locomotive supply and maintenance contract, worth approximately $2.6 billion over 11 years.
The deal advances the Make in India initiative and reinforces Indias position as a global manufacturing destination.
The largest deal in GEs 100-year history in India, the company will build a diesel locomotive manufacturing facility in Marhowra district in the Indian state of Bihar, as well as maintenance sheds at Bhatinda in Punjab and Gandhidham in Gujarat. This effort is a major boost to Indias railway modernization efforts, and will provide skill development opportunities for local talent.
I always love how some very important details always seem to be buried in the story. Dollar amounts seem not to catch my interest but that 's the lede in so many of these stories. For me the big story was that this is the largest deal in GE's 100-year history in India.
There are so many story lines.
First, and foremost, less than five years ago, in the energy business, GE seemed to be all about wind turbines. I assume that's still a big part of GE (I don't know; I don't follow GE very closely; and don't write me about GE and wind turbines; I don't have the time; I have my myth, my world view, and I don't want facts to confuse me) but some years ago GE made a strategic shift from intermittent energy to dependable energy. See two stories on GE's recent move into Europe: from The Wall Street Journal and from Forbes.
The Indian story above does not say what the locomotive story is all about, but it doesn't take a rocket scientist to suggest that it's all about coal. From the blog back in September, 2014, the same link as one of the links above:
Blackouts in India widened as
inadequate coal supplies forced plants to shut down, after
increased industrial activity and a monsoon deficit boosted
electricity demand from factories and households.
The national peak shortage yesterday expanded to more than
6 percent from the 3.9 percent average in July, according to
data from the Power Ministry and Power System Operation Corp., a
unit of Power Grid Corp. of India. Stocks at power stations run
on local coal plunged. Equipment breakdowns or maintenance also
caused other plants to be under shutdown, including ones
operated by Tata Power Co. and Adani Power Ltd.
A surge in economic activity has led to higher demand for
the fuel, exacerbating supply bottlenecks caused by heavy rains
at some mines and slow railway transport in places. India’s
economy grew at the fastest pace in more than two years, the
Central Statistical Office said in a statement in New Delhi
yesterday. Slow economic activity had caused coal stocks at
power plants to swell last year.
******************************
Earnings
Reporting today:
Arch Coal (ACI), forecast a loss of $5.45; much, much better -- only a loss of $3.38/share; Arch Coal soars after earnings beat; up as much as 10%; Revenue decreased to $688.5 million, down from $742.2 million for the year-ago period. Analysts surveyed at Zacks were expecting the company to report a wider loss of $5.79 per share on revenue of $688.29 million.
I guess that's it; nothing else, unless I missed something, interests me.
Whenever I see another story on intermittent energy and how important it is to the global economy, I keep going back to this graph:
and this graph:
Did anyone really pay any attention to this graph the first time is was posted? I know I did not. Generally when there is such a huge delta between "consumption" and "production" it is a graph projecting into the future how bad things might become. But in this case, this graph is "real-time." If I understand the graphic correctly, this is all domestic coal production, domestic coal consumption. Therefore, the delta represents the amount of coal that India must import every year, and for the past five or six years that delta is really becoming quite striking.
I doubt India can close the domestic-import delta. If not, it will be interesting where all that coal will come from.Washington state ports? LOL.
But this is really scary for the warmists: regardless of where the coal comes from, look at the "total production target for 2020 -- that's just five years from now. India's total production target is set at 1,500 million metric tons, compared to barely 700 million metric tons in 2014. I'm pretty poor at math, but going from 700 to 1,500 seems to be more than double. In five years.
From wiki: India ranks fifth in global coal production at 228 mtoe in the year 2013 when its inferior quality coal tonnage is converted in to tons of oil equivalent. Coal-fired power plants account for 59% of India's installed electricity capacity. After electricity production, coal is also used for cement production in substantial quantity. In the year 2013, India imported nearly 95 Mtoe of steam coal and coking coal which is 29% of total consumption to meet the demand in electricity, cement and steel production.
So, if I read that correctly, India's "real" domestic coal production is 228 metric tons (2013); India imported 95 metric tons that year (2013). Compare to graphic above which suggests India domestically produced 600 metric tons -- but it's low quality coal. [Indian coal is of low quality as it has a high ash content.]
More from wiki: India is largely dependent on fossil fuel imports to meet its energy demands — by 2030, India's dependence on energy imports is expected to exceed 53% of the country's total energy consumption. In 2009-10, the country imported 159.26 million tonnes of crude oil which amounts to 80% of its domestic crude oil consumption and 31% of the country's total imports are oil imports. The growth of electricity generation in India has been hindered by domestic coal shortages and as a consequence, India's coal imports for electricity generation increased by 18% in 2010.
