For The Archives -- Global Warming -- Coal: The New Transitional Fuel -- John Kerry -- November 14, 2021

The UN Climate Conference, 2021, COP26: the takeaway -- China and India opened the door -- coal is back on the table as a transitional fuel.

• this was actually a step back from the Paris Protocol or whatever the last major summit was called. two 30-second elevator observations:
• this was a complete failure -- because it did not advance the Paris Protocol. Regardless of what the UN might say, it was China and India that carried the day -- and they carried the day with commitment to continue using coal, like "forever."
• there was much more emphasis on the CEOs of Fortune 500 companies being there. They understand the importance of virtue signaling. Every corporate presentation now includes an "ESG slide" and "COP26" needs to be on that slide.
• from now on, every country will go its own way, with reality leading the way;
  
• it raises questions on the future of such conferences. These events are becoming bigger than the Summer Olympics and generating a whole lot less in excitement. How do you spell "ho-hum"?

That first line, "... or whatever the last major summit was called." Quick review, courtesy of wiki.

• COP: conference of the parties
• Framework Convention, 1992
• Berlin, 1995: first UN Climate Change Conference
• Kyoto Protocol, 1997: to establish legally binding obligations for developed countries (China, India, given a pass)
• Kyoto Protocol conferences: annually beginning in 2005
• Durban Amendment, 2011: supposed to result in a binding treaty; to be defined by 2015; become effective in 2020
• Prelude to Paris Agreement: annually from 2011 to 2015
• Paris Agreement, 2015: Kyoto Protocol "passed"; international treaty; legally binding (LOL)
• COP 26: first UN Climate Conference to actually be advertised as a "COPXX" just like "SuperBowl XX." Twenty-sixth COP, but the third meeting of the parties of the Paris Agreement ; US formally (and legally withdrew on November 4, 2020; President Biden "signs the instrument to bring the US back into the Paris Agreement; treaties require 2/3rd majority of US Senate; vote has not taken place
  
• COP 27: to be held in Egypt, 2022
• COP 28: to be held in UAE

It appears COP26 will be seen as the high tide.

Items for further discussion:

• we have only ten years to act -- 1994, and every year after that
• Greta has moved on: it appears Greta has moved on to global issue du jour
• this year: Covid vaccine equity
• next year: "Taylor Swift licensing" protocols
• coming: a Tesla in every garage
  
• China and India: set unobtainable goals for 2060
• 2.5°C vs 1.5°C
• new sheriff in town: President Xi
• zero dollars for all those sinking islands
• it was all about sinking islands; why did that meme "go away"?
  
• quick: name the Pacific island that is the poster child for global warming: Kiribati. The atoll has actually gained more land above sea level since the Kyoto Protocol

Finally, note:

• these UN conferences are still numbered by COP -- so this was COP26. The longer this goes on, the less urgency is obvious. COP28 is still planned for UAE in 2023
• in an attempt to return to some sense of urgency, the conferences will eventually morph into PPA (parties of the Paris Agreement); COP26 was held in conjunction with PPA3
• PPA5 will likely be the "lead-off" meeting. It is still unknown when / if PPAs will become annual events. Tea leaves: PPA4 in 2025 and every every five years after that, although if the billionaires want to party sooner, we could see these events on an annual basis starting next year;

********************************
Doofus

John Kerry.

Touts "good" climate deal ... after China, India announce they won't be giving up coal any time soon. 

I just can't imagine spending the best (and last) years of one's life doing something so meaningless. Speaking of which, where is his yacht moored this year, Connecticut or Rhode Island?